美国总统特朗普全面暂停12个国家的公民进入美国。 特朗普当地时间4日签署一项公告，全面限制12个国家的旅客入境，理由是存在国家安全风险。这些国家分别 是阿富汗、缅甸、乍得、刚果共和国、赤道几内亚、厄立特里亚、海地、伊朗、利比亚、索马里、苏丹和也 门。 同时，美国白宫还发布消息称，为保障国家安全，特朗普签署行政命令，暂停外国公民以学生或交流项目参与 者身份进入哈佛大学学习或参与交流项目的入境。 另外，特斯拉CEO马斯克与特朗普的矛盾持续升级也引发关注。当地时间6月4日，马斯克加大了对特朗普减 税法案的攻势，呼吁美国民众联系他们的立法者，以"扼杀"该法案。马斯克在社交媒体上称"让美国破产是不 对的"。 白宫发言人阿比盖尔·杰克逊表示，"特朗普正在履行承诺，保护美国人免受那些想要进入我们国家并对我们造 成伤害的危险外国势力的侵害。" 特朗普今年1月20日就职当天曾签署行政令，要求国务院列出"审查和筛查信息不足的国家，以部分或全部暂 停这些国家国民入境"，在60天内向白宫提交报告。据央视新闻此前报道，今年3月，特朗普政府考虑对数十 个国家的公民实施广泛的旅行限制，作为新禁令的一部分。 特朗普对哈佛大学实施新的限制措施 ...

Macroeconomic Overview - The gold market is experiencing intense long-short battles, reaching a near four-week high before retreating due to a stronger dollar, creating uncertainty [1] - The U.S. dollar rebounded by 0.6% on Tuesday, increasing the holding cost of gold and suppressing demand [1] - Trump's proposal to double steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% heightens market caution, potentially benefiting gold through safe-haven demand while being limited by a stronger dollar [1] - The Senate's tax bill may increase debt by $3.8 trillion, which could weaken the dollar in the long term and support gold prices, although short-term expectations suggest a weaker dollar may help gold rebound [1] - Signs of cooling in the labor market are emerging, with April layoffs reaching a nine-month high and May non-farm payrolls expected to show job growth slowing to 130,000, with the unemployment rate possibly rising to 4.3% [1] - The Federal Reserve shows significant internal disagreement regarding the relationship between tariffs and inflation, with the June meeting expected to maintain interest rates but focus on policy guidance [1] - Gold is currently under short-term pressure from the dollar but supported by safe-haven demand, likely to continue fluctuating in the short term while maintaining long-term appeal [1] Dollar Index - The dollar index showed an upward trend on Tuesday, reaching a high of 99.308 and closing at 99.245 [2] - The market initially experienced a short-term decline but rebounded, breaking previous resistance levels [2] - The weekly resistance is noted at 101.10, suggesting a bearish outlook in the medium term, while the daily resistance is at 99.60 [2] - The price is currently under pressure at the daily resistance level, indicating a cautious approach towards potential short positions [2] Gold Market - On Tuesday, gold prices generally declined, with a high of 3392.02 and a low of 3332.98, closing at 3353.23 [4] - The early session saw a price surge followed by a drop below previous lows, indicating a lack of strong bullish momentum [4] - The four-hour support level is critical, with a bearish close indicating potential further declines if this support is broken [4] - Monthly analysis shows that gold is expected to maintain a bullish outlook unless it breaks below the key support level of 2780 [5] - The daily support level is at 3310, which is crucial for maintaining a bullish stance in the short term [5] - The four-hour support at 3350 is essential for determining short-term price strength, with a cautious approach recommended until this level is tested [5] Euro/USD Market - The Euro/USD pair experienced a decline on Tuesday, with a low of 1.1363 and a close at 1.1369 [7] - The market initially rose but faced pressure, breaking below the four-hour support level [7] - Monthly support is at 1.0850, indicating a long-term bullish perspective, while the weekly support is at 1.1160 [7] - The daily support level at 1.1330 is critical for maintaining a bullish outlook, with short-term pressure noted after breaking the four-hour support [7]

作 者丨吴斌 编 辑丨和佳 图 源丨图虫 美债为何频频"巨震"？ 在"特朗普2.0"拉开大幕后，美债市场的"巨震"成了家常便饭。 申万宏源证券首席经济学家赵伟对记者表示，今年5月以来，美债利率异常波动的核心驱动因 素是财政层面的美国减税法案，以及交易层面的日债拍卖不及预期，在二者的影响下，美债利 率出现多次大幅异常上升。他指出，5月13日，众议院筹款委员会公布减税法案文本后，美债 动荡的美债市场"巨震"难平。 上周30年期美债收益率飙升至5.1%以上，接近20年来的最高水平。 到了本周，市场再度上演"过山车"行情。当地时间5月27日，投资者数周来首次被吸引到长期 美债市场， 美债抛售潮暂缓，30年期美债收益率跌破5%，创下3月以来最大单日跌幅 。 | | 关键期限国债 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 买人 | 卖出 | 现价 | | | 2M 美国国债 | 4.316 | 4.306 | 4.306 | | | 3M 美国国债 | 4.330 | 4.320 | 4.320 | | | 4M 美国国债 | 4.356 | 4.346 | 4.346 ...

Group 1 - The core driver of the recent volatility in the US Treasury market is the US tax reduction bill and the weak demand for Japanese bonds, leading to significant increases in Treasury yields in May [2][3][7] - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 37 basis points since April 30, with the term premium contributing 28 basis points to this increase, indicating heightened concerns over fiscal sustainability and inflation [10][69] - The term premium for US Treasuries reached a new high of 0.9% by May 22, reflecting disturbances in fiscal, inflation, monetary, and trading factors [10][69] Group 2 - The "Beautiful America Act" aims to extend tax cuts from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), with an expected increase in the deficit rate by approximately 1.8 percentage points by 2026, despite limited marginal economic contributions [3][29][40] - The Act's passage faces uncertainty in the Senate, where the Republican majority is slim, and potential amendments could require further voting in the House [3][29] - The Act includes significant tax cuts, with 80% of the measures extending existing cuts and 20% introducing new cuts, but the overall economic impact is expected to be limited, similar to the effects of tax extensions in 2010 and 2012 [33][40][41] Group 3 - The relationship between the US fiscal deficit and Treasury yields remains stable, with a 1 percentage point increase in the deficit correlating to a rise of approximately 78 basis points in the 10-year Treasury yield [4][47] - Short-term pressures on the Treasury market have eased, with positive net inflows into bond funds in May, indicating a temporary reduction in systemic pressure [49][50] - Long-term, Treasury yields are expected to remain elevated due to potential unanticipated deficit expansions and ongoing trade policy uncertainties [60][70]

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇 联系人 | 赵宇 摘要 美债利率异常波动的核心驱动事件是美国减税法案及日债需求走弱。 在二者的影响下，美债利率5月份 出现三次大幅异常上升。从根源上看，此次美债下跌源自减税引发的债务可持续担忧，但5月20日，日债 拍卖走弱大幅加速了美债利率上涨，导致美债与美元走势明显分化。 美债期限溢价升至新高，反应了财政、通胀、货币和交易的扰动。 美债期限溢价去年10月转正，至5月 22日升至0.9%，成为影响利率走势的主导因素。4月30日以来，10年美债利率上升37BP，其中期限溢价 上升28BP，短端实际利率预期上涨11BP，期限溢价贡献达七成。 （二）《美丽大法案》的进展及争议？2026年赤字率或挑战8%，但对经济的边际贡献有限 共和党在参议院仅有三个席位优势，《美丽大法案》能否按期通过存在不确定性。 法案现已递交参议 院，各委员会或在6月上旬进行审议，6月中旬前后举行全体投票。若参议院对法案进行较大修改，需众 议院再次投票、或与参院"协调"消除分歧——集中在医疗补助、SALT领域。 法案以延续TCJA减税为主体，经济影响可类比2010年奥巴马延长减税政策，增量提振效果或较为有限。 延长现 ...

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇 联系人 | 赵宇 摘要 法案以延续TCJA减税为主体，经济影响可类比2010年奥巴马延长减税政策，增量提振效果或较为有限。 延长现有减税措施占比约80%，于2026年生效；新减税措施占比约20%，立即生效。奥巴马2010年12月及 2012年12月的减税延长措施，均未改变经济的既定轨迹。 法案或将使美国财政赤字明显扩大，即使加征全球关税也难以对冲。 法案将导致减税前置、减支后置， 进而大幅提升近年的赤字率。根据CBO测算，2026年的赤字率增量约为1.8个百分点。十年内，关税或可 带来约2.5万亿美元收入，不足以弥补法案的3.3万亿左右的赤字增量。 （三）美债利率及风险展望？利率或将进一步走高，风险因素仍可能积累扩大 5月，美国众议院通过《美丽大法案》，加剧了美国财政可持续性的担忧，10年美债利率升破4.5%，风险 资产再度承压。如何看待美债的异常波动，减税法案或将如何影响赤字与利率？ 热点思考： 美债"风暴"将至？ （一）美债市场为何再次异动？内因是通胀和财政赤字问题，叠加了日债的"外溢效应" 美债利率异常波动的核心驱动事件是美国减税法案及日债需求走弱。 在二者的影响下，美债利率 ...

Group 1: U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics - U.S. Treasury yields have experienced significant volatility, with the 10-year yield surpassing 4.5% due to concerns over fiscal sustainability and inflation[2] - Since April 30, the 10-year Treasury yield has increased by 37 basis points (bps), with the term premium contributing 28 bps to this rise[2] - The term premium reached a new high of 0.9% by May 22, reflecting disturbances in fiscal, inflation, monetary, and trading factors[2] Group 2: Tax Legislation Impact - The "Beautiful Act" passed by the House of Representatives is expected to increase the deficit rate to approximately 8% by 2026, although its marginal economic contribution is limited[3] - The Act extends existing tax cuts, with about 80% of its provisions aimed at prolonging the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) measures, effective from January 1, 2026[3] - The projected increase in the deficit rate due to the Act is estimated at 1.8 percentage points, with a total deficit increase of around $3.3 trillion over the next decade[3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Asset Performance - The market has witnessed a "triple kill" in stocks, bonds, and currencies, with the Nasdaq down 2.5% and the 10-year Treasury yield rising by 8 bps to 4.51%[5] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 1.8% to 99.12, while gold prices surged by 5.0% to $3,351.0 per ounce amid market volatility[5] - The correlation between the U.S. fiscal deficit and Treasury yields remains stable, with a 1 percentage point increase in the deficit leading to an approximate 78 bps rise in the 10-year Treasury yield[3]

本周，美元呈现下跌态势，主要是因资金逃离美元资产。资金出现这种流向，主要源于评级公司调降了 美国主权信用评级、特朗普减税法案对美国赤字前景的负面影响，以及关税后续谈判进展不顺利等因 素。 基于同样的原因，美国国债市场本周也遭遇大幅下跌。就当前情况来看，资金外流的最主要去向是欧 盟、英国及日本。 在本周，美国公布的经济指标数量并不多。周四公布的数据显示，尽管当前经济存在较高的不确定性， 但5月劳动力市场依然保持着稳健的增长态势。至5月17日当周初请失业金人数为22.7万人，优于市场预 期的23万人。这一数据在一定程度上反映了美国劳动力市场的韧性，但未能改变美元因资金外流等因素 导致的下跌趋势。 每日经济新闻 在经历连续四周的上涨之后，本周美元走势急剧转弱。美元指数在一周内累计大幅下跌1.84%，降至 99.10点。深入分析本周美元下跌的原因，主要有以下三个方面： 评级下调引发投资者信心动摇：5月16日，评级公司穆迪将美国主权信用评级从"Aaa"下调至"Aa1"。这 一举措使得投资者原本就存在的对美元资产的回避心理进一步加剧。穆迪作出这一评级调整，主要是出 于对美国超高财政赤字及沉重债务负担的担忧。这一评级下调事 ...

昨夜，市场已然硝烟弥漫。 美股持续震荡，最后半小时急速跳水，由涨转跌。 这主要是因为川普的减税法案加剧了财政赤字。 川普为了通过这项法案，不仅威胁称不通过此案将是对共和党议程的最终背叛，并且 甚至亲自出面说服党内反对的议员。 然后经过连夜的辩论，在黎明时分，法案以 215：214 的票数结果惊险通过。下一步，该法案将提交到参议院审议。 川普称其 为"一个伟大美丽的法案" ， 价值数万亿美元。 据悉，此法案的篇幅超过1000页，我帮大家梳理了下三点核心内容： 一是延长川普在第一任期内提出的减税条款； 二是对小费、汽车贷款等提供新的税收减免； 三是增加国防支出，并为打击移民提供更多资金。 川普说了，这项法案主要目的就是提振经济。 川普给出的逻辑很简单，给人民减税，大家手里有钱了就会去消费，给企业减税，企业就会扩产。 计划 在未来十年内，此法案能减税超过4万亿美元，并 削减至少1.5万亿美元支出。 川普的所有政策可以总结成一句话十二个字：对外加税、对内减税、放松监管。 问题在于，现在对外加税的效果一般，而减税的另一面就是政府收入减少，这样赤字就会更加严重。 这次在减少开支方面也有新的动作，主要是在削减福利上： 法案 ...