证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20250609 央行提前预告买断式逆回购，关注流动性宽 松对于短端利率下行的支撑 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 我们在延续上周观点的基础上，结合增量数据，思考如下： （1）Markit 制造业与服务业 PMI 终值同步扩张，通胀压力增加，新增 2025 年 06 月 09 日 证券分析师 徐沐阳 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 执业证书：S0600523060003 证券分析师 陈伯铭 xumy@dwzq.com.cn 执业证书：S0600523020002 chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 徐津晶 执业证书：S0600523110001 xujj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《建议关注核心科技题材转债》 2025-06-08 《绿色债券周度数据跟踪（20250602- 20250606）》 2025-06-07 东吴证券研究所 1 / 37 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 央行提前预告买断式逆回购，重启买入国债讨论 ...

智通财经6月6日电，巴西政府预计将在2025年和2026年支持减税10%的法案。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian government plans to support a 10% tax reduction bill in 2025 and 2026 [1] Group 1 - The proposed tax reduction aims to stimulate economic growth and improve the financial situation of businesses and individuals [1] - The government anticipates that this measure will enhance investment attractiveness in Brazil [1] - The tax reduction is part of a broader strategy to boost the economy post-pandemic [1]

证券研究报告——宏观策略月报 全球贸易谈判关键阶段，以稳应变 ——2025年6月资产配置报告 HWABAO SECURITIES 2025年6月5日 分析师： 蔡梦苑（执业证书编号：S0890521120001） 分析师： 郝一凡（执业证书编号：S0890524080002） 分析师： 刘 芳（执业证书编号：S0890524100002） ► 请仔细阅读报告结尾处风险提示及免责声明 宏观主线梳理 宏观主线梳理 美国关税政策仍具不确定性 海外宏观 Ø 美国关税政策仍具较高不确定性，最终结果或趋于全球10%-15%、中国30%-54%的税率水平 关税扰动短期影响有限，中期压力值得关注，静待增量政策出台 Ø 市场担忧减税法案带来美国财政赤字难以持续 u 5月23日，美国众议院通过 "一个大美丽法案"。根据宾夕法尼亚大学测算，若法案最终通过，未来十年或将净增3.3万亿美元赤 字。市场担忧该法案带来的财政赤字难以持续，叠加穆迪下调美国主权信用评级，这均导致5月下旬美国市场再现股债汇三杀。 u 后续关税存在上行空间及不可预测性。在6-7月与各国达成关税贸易协定后，逐步明确的关税收入可缓解市场对财政赤字的担忧， 减税法案有 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses President Trump's announcement to suspend entry for citizens from 12 countries due to national security risks, including Afghanistan, Myanmar, and Iran [2][5][10] - The White House stated that the suspension applies to both immigrant and non-immigrant visas, with certain exemptions for U.S. permanent residents and specific visa holders [4][10] - Additionally, Trump announced partial restrictions for citizens from seven other countries, including Burundi and Venezuela, citing similar security concerns [4][5] Group 2 - Trump signed an executive order limiting foreign students and exchange visitors from entering Harvard University, claiming the institution failed to provide necessary security information [7][8] - The restrictions on Harvard include suspending its eligibility for student and exchange visitor visa programs and increasing scrutiny of foreign students associated with the university [8][9] - The administration emphasized that entering the U.S. for educational purposes is a privilege, not a right, and institutions must comply with legal obligations to ensure national security [9][10] Group 3 - The article highlights the escalating conflict between Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who criticized Trump's tax reform plan, urging the public to oppose it [11][12] - Musk's opposition to the tax plan, which he described as detrimental to budgetary efforts, could potentially influence legislative progress on tax and debt ceiling issues [11][16] - The article notes that the House of Representatives passed the tax reform plan, which aims to reduce taxes by $4 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about its impact on healthcare and federal debt [15][14]

Macroeconomic Overview - The gold market is experiencing intense long-short battles, reaching a near four-week high before retreating due to a stronger dollar, creating uncertainty [1] - The U.S. dollar rebounded by 0.6% on Tuesday, increasing the holding cost of gold and suppressing demand [1] - Trump's proposal to double steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% heightens market caution, potentially benefiting gold through safe-haven demand while being limited by a stronger dollar [1] - The Senate's tax bill may increase debt by $3.8 trillion, which could weaken the dollar in the long term and support gold prices, although short-term expectations suggest a weaker dollar may help gold rebound [1] - Signs of cooling in the labor market are emerging, with April layoffs reaching a nine-month high and May non-farm payrolls expected to show job growth slowing to 130,000, with the unemployment rate possibly rising to 4.3% [1] - The Federal Reserve shows significant internal disagreement regarding the relationship between tariffs and inflation, with the June meeting expected to maintain interest rates but focus on policy guidance [1] - Gold is currently under short-term pressure from the dollar but supported by safe-haven demand, likely to continue fluctuating in the short term while maintaining long-term appeal [1] Dollar Index - The dollar index showed an upward trend on Tuesday, reaching a high of 99.308 and closing at 99.245 [2] - The market initially experienced a short-term decline but rebounded, breaking previous resistance levels [2] - The weekly resistance is noted at 101.10, suggesting a bearish outlook in the medium term, while the daily resistance is at 99.60 [2] - The price is currently under pressure at the daily resistance level, indicating a cautious approach towards potential short positions [2] Gold Market - On Tuesday, gold prices generally declined, with a high of 3392.02 and a low of 3332.98, closing at 3353.23 [4] - The early session saw a price surge followed by a drop below previous lows, indicating a lack of strong bullish momentum [4] - The four-hour support level is critical, with a bearish close indicating potential further declines if this support is broken [4] - Monthly analysis shows that gold is expected to maintain a bullish outlook unless it breaks below the key support level of 2780 [5] - The daily support level is at 3310, which is crucial for maintaining a bullish stance in the short term [5] - The four-hour support at 3350 is essential for determining short-term price strength, with a cautious approach recommended until this level is tested [5] Euro/USD Market - The Euro/USD pair experienced a decline on Tuesday, with a low of 1.1363 and a close at 1.1369 [7] - The market initially rose but faced pressure, breaking below the four-hour support level [7] - Monthly support is at 1.0850, indicating a long-term bullish perspective, while the weekly support is at 1.1160 [7] - The daily support level at 1.1330 is critical for maintaining a bullish outlook, with short-term pressure noted after breaking the four-hour support [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in the U.S. Treasury bond market, highlighting the significant fluctuations in yields and the underlying factors driving these changes, particularly the impact of tax legislation and fiscal concerns [2][6][10]. Group 1: Treasury Yield Movements - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surged above 5.1%, nearing a 20-year high, before experiencing a notable drop below 5% on May 27, marking the largest single-day decline since March [2][5]. - On May 27, yields across various maturities fell, with the 30-year yield decreasing by 8.65 basis points to 4.951% [5]. - Following a brief recovery, yields rose again on May 28 due to disappointing results from a Japanese bond auction, with the 10-year yield approaching 4.5% and the 30-year yield again challenging the 5% mark [5][8]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Yield Fluctuations - The volatility in U.S. Treasury yields has been primarily driven by fiscal factors, including a proposed tax cut legislation and disappointing results from Japanese bond auctions [6][10]. - The U.S. House of Representatives narrowly passed a significant tax and spending bill, which is expected to exacerbate the federal deficit, raising concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability [10][11]. - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the proposed tax cuts could increase the federal debt by approximately $3.8 trillion over the next decade, contributing to a potential "fiscal cliff" scenario [12]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Despite a temporary easing of market concerns following a successful auction of two-year Treasury bonds, long-term worries about U.S. fiscal health remain prevalent [15]. - Analysts warn that the proposed tax cuts could lead to a significant increase in the federal deficit, with projections indicating a deficit increase of $614 billion in 2026 and $561 billion in 2027 [16]. - The relationship between the U.S. deficit and Treasury yields is expected to remain stable, with a 1% increase in the deficit correlating to a 0.78% rise in 10-year Treasury yields [16].

Group 1 - The core driver of the recent volatility in the US Treasury market is the US tax reduction bill and the weak demand for Japanese bonds, leading to significant increases in Treasury yields in May [2][3][7] - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 37 basis points since April 30, with the term premium contributing 28 basis points to this increase, indicating heightened concerns over fiscal sustainability and inflation [10][69] - The term premium for US Treasuries reached a new high of 0.9% by May 22, reflecting disturbances in fiscal, inflation, monetary, and trading factors [10][69] Group 2 - The "Beautiful America Act" aims to extend tax cuts from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), with an expected increase in the deficit rate by approximately 1.8 percentage points by 2026, despite limited marginal economic contributions [3][29][40] - The Act's passage faces uncertainty in the Senate, where the Republican majority is slim, and potential amendments could require further voting in the House [3][29] - The Act includes significant tax cuts, with 80% of the measures extending existing cuts and 20% introducing new cuts, but the overall economic impact is expected to be limited, similar to the effects of tax extensions in 2010 and 2012 [33][40][41] Group 3 - The relationship between the US fiscal deficit and Treasury yields remains stable, with a 1 percentage point increase in the deficit correlating to a rise of approximately 78 basis points in the 10-year Treasury yield [4][47] - Short-term pressures on the Treasury market have eased, with positive net inflows into bond funds in May, indicating a temporary reduction in systemic pressure [49][50] - Long-term, Treasury yields are expected to remain elevated due to potential unanticipated deficit expansions and ongoing trade policy uncertainties [60][70]

美国众议院通过减税法案。 5月22日，美国众议院以215票赞成、214票反对的微弱优势通过了《美丽大 法案》，法案旨在永久延续2017年《减税与就业法案》中的多项减税措施，并引入新的税收优惠。该法 案已提交参议院，共和党计划将在7月4日之前完成表决。 5月美国Markit制造业、服务业PMI反弹，日本4月核心CPI升温。 美国5月Markit制造业、服务业PMI均 提升至 52.3，前值分别为50.2、50.8，或反映中美关税缓和影响；4月日本CPI同比3.6%，核心通胀（剔除 食品、能源口径）同比3.0%，后者维持上升趋势。 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇 联系人 | 赵宇 摘要 大类资产&海外事件&数据：众议院通过减税法案，市场再现"股债汇"三杀 美国再现"股债汇"三杀，金价再度"异军突起"。 当周，纳指下跌2.5%，日经225下跌1.6%；10Y美债收益 率上行8bp至4.51%；美元指数下跌1.8%至99.12，离岸人民币升至7.1722；WTI原油下跌1.5%至61.5美元/ 桶，COMEX黄金上涨5.0%至3351.0美元/盎司。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰" ...