智通财经6月6日电，巴西政府预计将在2025年和2026年支持减税10%的法案。 ...

巴西政府预计将在2025年和2026年支持减税10%的法案。 ...

证券研究报告——宏观策略月报 全球贸易谈判关键阶段，以稳应变 ——2025年6月资产配置报告 HWABAO SECURITIES 2025年6月5日 分析师： 蔡梦苑（执业证书编号：S0890521120001） 分析师： 郝一凡（执业证书编号：S0890524080002） 分析师： 刘 芳（执业证书编号：S0890524100002） ► 请仔细阅读报告结尾处风险提示及免责声明 宏观主线梳理 宏观主线梳理 美国关税政策仍具不确定性 海外宏观 Ø 美国关税政策仍具较高不确定性，最终结果或趋于全球10%-15%、中国30%-54%的税率水平 关税扰动短期影响有限，中期压力值得关注，静待增量政策出台 Ø 市场担忧减税法案带来美国财政赤字难以持续 u 5月23日，美国众议院通过 "一个大美丽法案"。根据宾夕法尼亚大学测算，若法案最终通过，未来十年或将净增3.3万亿美元赤 字。市场担忧该法案带来的财政赤字难以持续，叠加穆迪下调美国主权信用评级，这均导致5月下旬美国市场再现股债汇三杀。 u 后续关税存在上行空间及不可预测性。在6-7月与各国达成关税贸易协定后，逐步明确的关税收入可缓解市场对财政赤字的担忧， 减税法案有 ...

美国总统特朗普全面暂停12个国家的公民进入美国。 特朗普当地时间4日签署一项公告，全面限制12个国家的旅客入境，理由是存在国家安全风险。这些国家分别 是阿富汗、缅甸、乍得、刚果共和国、赤道几内亚、厄立特里亚、海地、伊朗、利比亚、索马里、苏丹和也 门。 同时，美国白宫还发布消息称，为保障国家安全，特朗普签署行政命令，暂停外国公民以学生或交流项目参与 者身份进入哈佛大学学习或参与交流项目的入境。 另外，特斯拉CEO马斯克与特朗普的矛盾持续升级也引发关注。当地时间6月4日，马斯克加大了对特朗普减 税法案的攻势，呼吁美国民众联系他们的立法者，以"扼杀"该法案。马斯克在社交媒体上称"让美国破产是不 对的"。 白宫发言人阿比盖尔·杰克逊表示，"特朗普正在履行承诺，保护美国人免受那些想要进入我们国家并对我们造 成伤害的危险外国势力的侵害。" 特朗普今年1月20日就职当天曾签署行政令，要求国务院列出"审查和筛查信息不足的国家，以部分或全部暂 停这些国家国民入境"，在60天内向白宫提交报告。据央视新闻此前报道，今年3月，特朗普政府考虑对数十 个国家的公民实施广泛的旅行限制，作为新禁令的一部分。 特朗普对哈佛大学实施新的限制措施 ...

Macroeconomic Overview - The gold market is experiencing intense long-short battles, reaching a near four-week high before retreating due to a stronger dollar, creating uncertainty [1] - The U.S. dollar rebounded by 0.6% on Tuesday, increasing the holding cost of gold and suppressing demand [1] - Trump's proposal to double steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% heightens market caution, potentially benefiting gold through safe-haven demand while being limited by a stronger dollar [1] - The Senate's tax bill may increase debt by $3.8 trillion, which could weaken the dollar in the long term and support gold prices, although short-term expectations suggest a weaker dollar may help gold rebound [1] - Signs of cooling in the labor market are emerging, with April layoffs reaching a nine-month high and May non-farm payrolls expected to show job growth slowing to 130,000, with the unemployment rate possibly rising to 4.3% [1] - The Federal Reserve shows significant internal disagreement regarding the relationship between tariffs and inflation, with the June meeting expected to maintain interest rates but focus on policy guidance [1] - Gold is currently under short-term pressure from the dollar but supported by safe-haven demand, likely to continue fluctuating in the short term while maintaining long-term appeal [1] Dollar Index - The dollar index showed an upward trend on Tuesday, reaching a high of 99.308 and closing at 99.245 [2] - The market initially experienced a short-term decline but rebounded, breaking previous resistance levels [2] - The weekly resistance is noted at 101.10, suggesting a bearish outlook in the medium term, while the daily resistance is at 99.60 [2] - The price is currently under pressure at the daily resistance level, indicating a cautious approach towards potential short positions [2] Gold Market - On Tuesday, gold prices generally declined, with a high of 3392.02 and a low of 3332.98, closing at 3353.23 [4] - The early session saw a price surge followed by a drop below previous lows, indicating a lack of strong bullish momentum [4] - The four-hour support level is critical, with a bearish close indicating potential further declines if this support is broken [4] - Monthly analysis shows that gold is expected to maintain a bullish outlook unless it breaks below the key support level of 2780 [5] - The daily support level is at 3310, which is crucial for maintaining a bullish stance in the short term [5] - The four-hour support at 3350 is essential for determining short-term price strength, with a cautious approach recommended until this level is tested [5] Euro/USD Market - The Euro/USD pair experienced a decline on Tuesday, with a low of 1.1363 and a close at 1.1369 [7] - The market initially rose but faced pressure, breaking below the four-hour support level [7] - Monthly support is at 1.0850, indicating a long-term bullish perspective, while the weekly support is at 1.1160 [7] - The daily support level at 1.1330 is critical for maintaining a bullish outlook, with short-term pressure noted after breaking the four-hour support [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in the U.S. Treasury bond market, highlighting the significant fluctuations in yields and the underlying factors driving these changes, particularly the impact of tax legislation and fiscal concerns [2][6][10]. Group 1: Treasury Yield Movements - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surged above 5.1%, nearing a 20-year high, before experiencing a notable drop below 5% on May 27, marking the largest single-day decline since March [2][5]. - On May 27, yields across various maturities fell, with the 30-year yield decreasing by 8.65 basis points to 4.951% [5]. - Following a brief recovery, yields rose again on May 28 due to disappointing results from a Japanese bond auction, with the 10-year yield approaching 4.5% and the 30-year yield again challenging the 5% mark [5][8]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Yield Fluctuations - The volatility in U.S. Treasury yields has been primarily driven by fiscal factors, including a proposed tax cut legislation and disappointing results from Japanese bond auctions [6][10]. - The U.S. House of Representatives narrowly passed a significant tax and spending bill, which is expected to exacerbate the federal deficit, raising concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability [10][11]. - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the proposed tax cuts could increase the federal debt by approximately $3.8 trillion over the next decade, contributing to a potential "fiscal cliff" scenario [12]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Despite a temporary easing of market concerns following a successful auction of two-year Treasury bonds, long-term worries about U.S. fiscal health remain prevalent [15]. - Analysts warn that the proposed tax cuts could lead to a significant increase in the federal deficit, with projections indicating a deficit increase of $614 billion in 2026 and $561 billion in 2027 [16]. - The relationship between the U.S. deficit and Treasury yields is expected to remain stable, with a 1% increase in the deficit correlating to a 0.78% rise in 10-year Treasury yields [16].

Group 1 - The core driver of the recent volatility in the US Treasury market is the US tax reduction bill and the weak demand for Japanese bonds, leading to significant increases in Treasury yields in May [2][3][7] - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 37 basis points since April 30, with the term premium contributing 28 basis points to this increase, indicating heightened concerns over fiscal sustainability and inflation [10][69] - The term premium for US Treasuries reached a new high of 0.9% by May 22, reflecting disturbances in fiscal, inflation, monetary, and trading factors [10][69] Group 2 - The "Beautiful America Act" aims to extend tax cuts from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), with an expected increase in the deficit rate by approximately 1.8 percentage points by 2026, despite limited marginal economic contributions [3][29][40] - The Act's passage faces uncertainty in the Senate, where the Republican majority is slim, and potential amendments could require further voting in the House [3][29] - The Act includes significant tax cuts, with 80% of the measures extending existing cuts and 20% introducing new cuts, but the overall economic impact is expected to be limited, similar to the effects of tax extensions in 2010 and 2012 [33][40][41] Group 3 - The relationship between the US fiscal deficit and Treasury yields remains stable, with a 1 percentage point increase in the deficit correlating to a rise of approximately 78 basis points in the 10-year Treasury yield [4][47] - Short-term pressures on the Treasury market have eased, with positive net inflows into bond funds in May, indicating a temporary reduction in systemic pressure [49][50] - Long-term, Treasury yields are expected to remain elevated due to potential unanticipated deficit expansions and ongoing trade policy uncertainties [60][70]

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇 联系人 | 赵宇 摘要 美债利率异常波动的核心驱动事件是美国减税法案及日债需求走弱。 在二者的影响下，美债利率5月份 出现三次大幅异常上升。从根源上看，此次美债下跌源自减税引发的债务可持续担忧，但5月20日，日债 拍卖走弱大幅加速了美债利率上涨，导致美债与美元走势明显分化。 美债期限溢价升至新高，反应了财政、通胀、货币和交易的扰动。 美债期限溢价去年10月转正，至5月 22日升至0.9%，成为影响利率走势的主导因素。4月30日以来，10年美债利率上升37BP，其中期限溢价 上升28BP，短端实际利率预期上涨11BP，期限溢价贡献达七成。 （二）《美丽大法案》的进展及争议？2026年赤字率或挑战8%，但对经济的边际贡献有限 共和党在参议院仅有三个席位优势，《美丽大法案》能否按期通过存在不确定性。 法案现已递交参议 院，各委员会或在6月上旬进行审议，6月中旬前后举行全体投票。若参议院对法案进行较大修改，需众 议院再次投票、或与参院"协调"消除分歧——集中在医疗补助、SALT领域。 法案以延续TCJA减税为主体，经济影响可类比2010年奥巴马延长减税政策，增量提振效果或较为有限。 延长现 ...

Group 1 - The core driver of the recent volatility in the US Treasury market is the US tax reduction bill and the weak demand for Japanese bonds, leading to significant increases in Treasury yields in May [2][3][7] - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 37 basis points since April 30, with the term premium contributing 28 basis points to this increase, indicating heightened concerns over fiscal sustainability and inflation [10][69] - The term premium for US Treasuries reached a new high of 0.9% by May 22, reflecting disturbances in fiscal, inflation, monetary, and trading factors [10][69] Group 2 - The "Beautiful America Act" aims to extend tax cuts from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), with an expected increase in the deficit rate by approximately 1.8 percentage points by 2026, despite the limited marginal economic contribution [3][29][40] - The Act's passage faces uncertainty in the Senate, where the Republican majority is slim, and potential modifications could require further voting in the House [3][29] - The Act is projected to significantly increase the US fiscal deficit, with an estimated deficit increase of around $3.3 trillion over ten years, which cannot be offset by the anticipated $2.5 trillion in new tariffs [3][40] Group 3 - The relationship between the US fiscal deficit and Treasury yields remains stable, with a 1 percentage point increase in the deficit correlating to a rise of approximately 78 basis points in the 10-year Treasury yield [4][47] - Short-term pressures on the Treasury market have eased, with positive net inflows into bond funds in May, indicating a temporary reduction in systemic pressure [49][50] - Long-term, Treasury yields are expected to remain elevated, influenced by potential unanticipated deficit expansions and ongoing trade policy uncertainties [60][70]