来源：环球时报 "华尔街尚且无法确定凯文·沃什究竟是朋友还是敌人。"《华尔街日报》的另一篇文章分析称，沃什在2006年至2011年期间担任美联储理事，曾因长期认为 低利率和大规模债券购买会推高物价而被贴上在通胀问题上持有"鹰派"立场的标签。然而，近段时间他却公开支持降低借贷成本，与总统的立场趋于一致， 这一转变与其长期以来的"鹰派"形象形成鲜明反差。此外，沃什认为美联储应该收缩资产负债表，一些投资者认为此举可以减轻降息的影响。 沃什的任命在华尔街引发热议。据英国广播公司（BBC）报道，沃什的提名得到了前国务卿赖斯和华尔街知名经济学家埃里安等权威人士的赞扬。但也有批 评者认为，沃什在政策制定方面的记录并不理想，并提到他在2008年金融危机期间曾反对实施经济刺激措施，因担忧其可能引发通胀——这一观点在当时乃 至现今均属少数派。 【环球时报报道 记者 马梦阳】经过长达数月的猜测，美国总统特朗普1月30日宣布，将任命前美联储理事凯文·沃什接替鲍威尔，出任新一任美联储主席。 此项任命尚待参议院批准。这一备受关注的人事动向引发了贵金属市场的波动，美国股市也出现下跌。有外媒分析认为，在对特朗普干预美联储的担忧中， 市场反应 ...

美联储理事库克表示，美联储必须在不久的将来让通胀回归目标水平，这对维持其信誉至关重要。 库克发表上述言论之际，美国总统特朗普刚刚宣布将提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什出任下一任美联储主 席。特朗普长期以来一直要求美联储大幅降息，这让许多美联储观察人士担心，下一任主席可能不会坚 守美联储抑制通胀的承诺。 "总体而言，前景的不确定性仍然很高，尽管我相信劳动力市场将继续受到去年三次降息的支撑，"她 说。 沃什曾表示美联储有降息空间，理由是他相信生产率的提高可以在不引发通胀的情况下促进经济增长。 库克表示，她支持上周维持利率不变的决定，因为她现在认为"风险偏向于更高的通胀"。她加入了其他 几位决策者的行列，对通胀发出了警告，目前的通胀率已连续数年高于美联储2%的目标。 "除非劳动力市场出现意外变化，否则在看到更有力的证据表明通胀正持续回落至目标之前，这（控制 通胀）将是我的关注重点，"库克在周三迈阿密的一场活动讲稿中说道。 "在通胀率高于目标近五年后，我们必须回到反通胀的轨道上，并在相对较近的将来实现我们的目标， 以维持我们的信誉，"库克说。 美联储决策者在上周将基准利率维持在3.5%至3.75%的区间不变，此前他们在20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global currency market is experiencing stable trading with a lack of clear directional guidance, as various economic data and key events are set to be released, influencing market sentiment and currency valuations [1][5]. Economic Data and Events - Key economic data to be released includes the U.S. API and EIA crude oil inventory data, China's Caixin Services PMI, and various PMIs from France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK for January [1][8]. - The U.S. ADP employment figures and the final reading of the S&P Global Services PMI for January will also be closely monitored [1][8]. Currency Analysis - **U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)**: Currently in a weak consolidation phase, with resistance at 97.75-97.82 and support at 97.45 and 97.20 [2]. - **GBP/USD**: The pair is under pressure, with significant resistance at 1.3710 and support at 1.3650, indicating a bearish outlook [3]. - **EUR/USD**: The exchange rate is fluctuating around 1.18, with key support at 1.1780 and resistance at 1.1820-1.1850, lacking strong fundamental support [3]. - **USD/JPY**: The pair is trading within a range of 152-156, with resistance at 156.03 and support at 155.28-154.68, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [4]. Recent News Impact - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, as indicated by comments from officials, is expected to influence the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields significantly [5]. - The U.S.-India trade agreement, which includes reduced tariffs and increased purchases of U.S. goods, is likely to reshape trade dynamics and impact commodity prices [5]. - The recent rise in the ISM Manufacturing PMI to 52.6 suggests a return to expansion, which may bolster the dollar and U.S. equity markets [6]. - Developments in U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations could affect oil prices and market sentiment towards risk assets [6]. - The postponement of key employment data due to government shutdowns may lead to increased volatility in the dollar and Treasury markets [6].

新西兰第四季度失业率升至10年高位，因求职人数增加抵消了就业增长。这份喜忧参半的报告表明，利 率在一段时间内仍需维持低位。受此消息影响，新西兰元小幅回落至0.6045美元，利率期货则出现反 弹，因市场下调了加息的可能性（至少在9月前），目前官方隔夜拆款利率（OCR）为2.25%。 责任编辑：王永生 新西兰统计局的数据显示，第四季失业率小幅攀升至5.4%，创2015年第三季度以来新高，且高于市场 预期的5.3%。该数据也略高于新西兰央行的预测，这一结果令人失望，因近期其他数据曾显示疲软经 济有所改善。私营部门年薪增长率仍维持在2.0%的低位，远低于3.1%的消费者价格通胀率。 新西兰第四季度失业率升至10年高位，因求职人数增加抵消了就业增长。这份喜忧参半的报告表明，利 率在一段时间内仍需维持低位。受此消息影响，新西兰元小幅回落至0.6045美元，利率期货则出现反 弹，因市场下调了加息的可能性（至少在9月前），目前官方隔夜拆款利率（OCR）为2.25%。 新西兰统计局的数据显示，第四季失业率小幅攀升至5.4%，创2015年第三季度以来新高，且高于市场 预期的5.3%。该数据也略高于新西兰央行的预测，这一结果令人失 ...

美国股市周一上涨，此前一夜之间剧烈波动震动了金融市场，包括亚洲股市暴跌。黄金和白银价格在最近的疯狂波动后进一步下 跌。在华尔街，标准普尔500指数上涨0.5%，结束了连续三天的下跌势头。道琼斯工业平均指数上涨515点，即1.1%，纳斯达克综合 指数上涨0.6%。 上周几家公司的利润报告超出分析师预期，这带动了计算机存储设备制造商的股价，使其成为周一市场的领头羊。受益于油价大幅 下跌，航空公司和游轮运营商的股价也表现强劲。 这在一定程度上抵消了英伟达4.9%的跌幅。英伟达的芯片正在推动全球大部分向人工智能技术的转型。但在亚洲，人工智能赢家的 跌幅更为严重。芯片公司SK海力士损失近9%，导致韩国综合股价指数下跌5.3%，创下近10个月来最糟糕的一天。尽管这家娱乐巨 头上季度的利润超出分析师预期，但华特迪士尼公司的股价下跌了7.4%。该公司警告称，一些挑战正在阻止国际游客前往其美国主 题公园。 特朗普告诉记者"伊朗正在认真地与我们交谈"后，油价下跌超过4%。这可能是两国关系改善的信号，可能确保全球石油流动顺畅。 油价下跌可能意味着航空公司的燃油账单不那么"痛苦"。这帮助嘉年华集团股价飙升8.1%，美国联合航空公司股 ...

美联储官员上周以10票赞成、2票反对的结果决定维持基准利率在3.50%至3.75%区间不变，并释放出短 期内不急于降息的信号。 特朗普此前表示，选择沃什部分原因在于其认同总统关于"借贷成本应更低"的观点。现任主席鲍威尔因 降息步伐不及特朗普预期，长期处于总统批评之下，其任期将于5月中旬结束。 市场方面，博斯蒂克的讲话强化了利率维持高位的预期。根据CME FedWatch工具，3月18日FOMC会议 降息25个基点的概率已从前一日的13.4%下降至10.9%。 分析认为，若沃什接任，美联储未来政策走向仍将取决于其能否在内部形成共识。在通胀尚存不确定 性、经济表现依旧稳健的情况下，美联储短期内或将继续保持观望立场。 智通财经APP获悉，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克周一表示，美国总统特朗普提名的下一任美联储主席人 选凯文·沃什若最终获国会确认，将面临"艰巨任务"，尤其是在推动货币政策方向时，需要说服联邦公 开市场委员会(FOMC)其他成员支持其立场。 博斯蒂克在亚特兰大扶轮社活动上指出，美联储的政策制定并非主席一人即可决定，"如果你希望政策 朝着你想要的方向推进，就必须让其他委员愿意与你同行，而这需要建立关系、赢得信任 ...

Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $4,691 per troy ounce on Tuesday, up 0.8% from Monday’s closing price of $4,652.60. In early trading, gold rose nearly 6% to eclipse $4,900 per ounce. Gold’s rebound on Tuesday followed a selloff that pushed the gold price down 21.2% in a matter of days. The selloff began after President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve’s next chair, to replace Jerome Powell in May of 2026. Warsh was a more conservative choice than some expected. He was a Fed governor from ...

Group 1: Current Gold Market Overview - Gold futures opened at $4,490 per troy ounce on Monday, down 5.4% from Friday's closing price of $4,745.10, with a week-over-week decline of over 11% [1] - Despite the current sell-off, gold prices are still up nearly 60% compared to the same time last year [1] - The one-year gain for gold was reported at 95.6% on January 29 [3] Group 2: Stock Market Context - S&P futures are down 0.3%, Dow Jones futures are down 0.04%, and Nasdaq 100 futures are down 0.6% [1] - The S&P 500 is experiencing double-digit earnings growth for the fifth consecutive quarter [2] Group 3: Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices can be quoted in multiple forms, primarily as spot prices and gold futures prices [5] - The spot price is the current market price per ounce for physical gold, while gold futures are contracts for future transactions at a specific price [7] - The spot price is generally lower than the retail price due to additional costs like the gold premium [6] Group 4: Influencing Factors on Gold Prices - Factors affecting gold prices include geopolitical events, central bank buying trends, inflation, interest rates, and mining production [11]

在美联储上周决定维持利率不变后，特朗普勐烈抨击了鲍威尔。"他正在伤害我们的国家及其国家安 全，"特朗普在社交媒体上称，并称这位主席为"白痴"。 【最新现货白银行情解析】 在暴跌过程中，白银突破了100美元、90美元、80美元等关键支撑位，如果不是50日简单移动平均线 (SMA)位于73.51美元，似乎正朝着70.00美元的里程碑挑战。 今日周一(2月2日)亚盘时段，现货白银目前交投于80.41一线下方，今日开盘于80.27美元/盎司，截至发 稿，现货白银暂报79.15美元/盎司，下跌6.48%，最高触及87.91美元/盎司，最低下探78.75美元/盎司， 目前来看，现货白银盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 当地时间周六，美国总统特朗普在"空军一号"上对记者表示，他认为自己提名的美联储主席人选凯文. 沃什有望赢得部分民主党参议员的支持，并称沃什是"高素质人选"，应能顺利通过参议院确认程序。 特朗普表示，他预期若提名获得确认，沃什将会降低利率，其依据是沃什在采访及其他场合的表态。当 被问及沃什是否就此作出任何承诺时，特朗普回应称："我不想那样做。我也不能那样做。" 特朗普一直要求更低的利率。他在去年12月告诉 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall allocation value of the convertible bond market has decreased, with only trading and gaming value remaining in the process, and the medium - to - long - term expected returns are low or negative [29]. - In 2025, the performance of pure - bond funds continued to weaken, while "fixed - income plus" funds had an advantage. They are entering a new development stage [30]. - In January, the industrial high - frequency data rebounded, mainly affected by the Spring Festival date shift. Policy - related impacts are still evident, but policy - based financial tools may improve the construction and infrastructure sectors. In the short term, it is difficult to expect total - volume monetary policies, and the second quarter may be a possible time for total - volume interest rate cuts [30]. - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the scale of money market funds increased beyond the seasonal norm, but the number decreased. In the future, the yields of money market funds may continue to decline, and the scale growth may slow down [31]. - Despite the interest rate reversal between China and Japan, global funds prefer low - interest - rate China due to factors such as exchange rates. China will eventually emerge from low inflation and enter a new cycle [31]. - Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman may lead to a change in Fed policies. The overall orientation of monetary policy remains relatively loose, but in the medium term, the erosion of the Fed's independence may continue to reduce the intrinsic value of the US dollar [32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - In December 2025, GDP growth at constant prices was 4.5% year - on - year, lower than the previous period and the same period last year. The Manufacturing PMI in January 2026 was 49.3%, and the Non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, both showing a decline [1]. - In December 2025, the total social financing scale was 2.2075 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were 910 billion yuan, showing a decrease compared to the previous period [1]. - In December 2025, CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - In January 2026, China's official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs declined. The market demand was insufficient, and the financial market was active [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the price limit and margin ratio of silver futures contracts from February 3 [2]. - In 2025, the GDP data of 31 provinces in China was released. Tibet led the country in economic growth, driven by major infrastructure projects [2]. - The CME raised the trading margin requirements for gold and silver futures due to the sharp decline in precious metal prices. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chairman may lead to policy adjustments [3]. - The WTO ruled that the US clean energy subsidies in the Inflation Reduction Act violated WTO rules [4]. 3.2.2 Metals - The nomination of Kevin Warsh triggered a sharp decline in the global precious metal market. Spot silver, gold, platinum, and palladium all fell significantly. Some domestic gold jewelry prices also decreased [5]. - Some banks adjusted their gold accumulation businesses, and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange took measures against abnormal trading in some funds [6][7]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - As of mid - January 2026, the price of rebar reached a new high since late August 2025, rising 0.34% month - on - month [8]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - In 2025, the national power market trading volume reached 6.64 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%. The new energy storage installed capacity exceeded 130 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 84% [9]. - Trump issued an executive order threatening tariffs on countries supplying oil to Cuba and taking measures against Canadian aircraft. India may reduce Russian oil imports [9]. - The EU plans to ban maritime services for Russian oil transportation as part of new sanctions [10]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Since February 2, 2026, a 5% temporary import tariff rate has been implemented on whiskey [12]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - This week, 1.7615 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will expire in the central bank's open market, and 700 billion yuan of 91 - day repurchase agreements will expire on Wednesday [13]. - On January 30, the central bank conducted 477.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 352.5 billion yuan [13]. 3.3.2 Important News and Information - In January 2026, China's official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs declined, mainly due to seasonal factors and insufficient market demand [14]. - The Politburo emphasized the development of future industries. President Xi Jinping's article on building a financial power was published [14][15]. - Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman, but the nomination faces opposition. The UK Prime Minister visited China, and the two sides reached multiple cooperation agreements [16][17]. - In 2025, China's national fiscal revenue decreased by 1.7%, and fiscal expenditure increased by 1%. The operating income of state - owned enterprises increased slightly, while the total profit decreased [17]. - Tax policies were adjusted, including changes to the VAT threshold for natural persons and clarification of VAT calculation methods [18]. - In 2025, Tibet led the country in economic growth, and many provinces planned to use local government bonds to acquire idle land [19]. - In January 2026, the average price of second - hand homes in 100 cities decreased, while the price of new homes increased in some cities [19]. - The China Banking Association issued guidelines for consumer loan collection. The issuance of refinancing special bonds for debt replacement accelerated, and local government explicit debt increased [19][20]. - Convertible bond funds performed well, while bond ETFs faced capital outflows. The US Senate passed an appropriation bill, but the government entered a partial shutdown [20][21]. - Japan was still under US Treasury monitoring, and some bonds were suspended or had changes in their transfer methods [21][22]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - On January 30, the Chinese bond market fluctuated. Interest - rate bond yields changed little, and treasury bond futures showed mixed performance. Money market rates showed different trends [24]. - In the exchange - traded bond market, some Vanke bonds rose, and some other bonds fell. The convertible bond index declined [24][25]. - US Treasury yields showed different trends, with short - term yields falling and long - term yields rising [27]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - On Friday, the on - shore RMB depreciated against the US dollar, and the US dollar index rose. Most non - US currencies depreciated [28]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Different securities firms have different views on the convertible bond market, "fixed - income plus" funds, monetary policies, and money - market funds [29][30][31]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On February 2, 143 bonds will be listed, 124 bonds will be issued, 85 bonds will require payment, and 399 bonds will pay principal and interest [33]. 3.4 Stock Market Important News - As of January 31, 3057 A - share listed companies disclosed their 2025 annual performance forecasts. 53.6% of them were optimistic. Industries such as non - ferrous metals and new energy showed good performance [34].