Group 1: Economic Highlights - In November, production showed signs of weak improvement, with the manufacturing PMI rising 0.2 percentage points to 49.2%[1] - Industrial added value growth is expected to remain stable at 4.9%[1] - Exports rebounded to 5.9% in November, supported by an increase in working days and a reduction in production overhang effects[1] Group 2: Investment and Consumption Insights - Investment pressures may ease as the impact of debt repayment on investment diminishes, with construction investment remaining at -16% in October[2] - Service consumption is expected to improve due to the promotion of autumn holidays, despite a decline in "trade-in" programs[1] - Retail sales growth is projected at 2.7%[1] Group 3: Challenges and Risks - Manufacturing investment remains constrained by companies accelerating debt repayments, with accounts receivable growth dropping to 5.2%[2] - Real estate investment and sales are likely to decline further, with November housing sales down 33.1% year-on-year[2] - The "anti-involution" policy's slow progress in the manufacturing sector keeps cost rates at historically high levels, negatively impacting profits[2] Group 4: Inflation and Price Trends - November inflation indicators are expected to show improvement, with CPI projected to rise to 0.7% year-on-year[3] - PPI is anticipated to recover slightly to around -2% due to ongoing price pressures from upstream commodities[3] - Core CPI may see limited improvement due to the lagging effects of the "anti-involution" policy on downstream prices[3]

不过，中国人民大学副校长郑新业表示，"十五五"时期，我国依然面对全球经济复苏乏力，地缘政治冲 突持续，国际产业链、供应链重构等问题，从内部看，经济转型过程中的结构性矛盾尚未完全解决，科 技创新的"卡脖子"问题仍需突破，区域发展不平衡、城乡差距等问题仍需持续破解，高质量发展的内涵 式增长路径仍需进一步探索。 对此，会议强调，做好明年经济工作，要加快构建新发展格局，着力推动高质量发展，坚持稳中求进工 作总基调，更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，更好统筹发展和安全，实施更加积极有为的宏观政 策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性。 华夏时报记者 张智 北京报道 12月8日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。这是中央经济工作会议的前瞻会议， 为明年中国经济发展确定方向。 2025年是中国式现代化进程中具有重要意义的一年，过去5年，我们有效应对各种冲击挑战，我国经 济、科技、国防等硬实力和文化、制度、外交等软实力明显提升，"十四五"即将圆满收官，第二个百年 奋斗目标新征程实现良好开局。 会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币 政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集 ...

点击上图▲立即了解 " 不到一年，已有 368 家银行因监管批复合并或批复解散而注销。 文 /巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 2025年的中国银行业迎来了"关闭潮"：大批中小银行正加速解散与合并。 根据国家金融监管总局以及企业预警通数据，截至11月28日，已经有368家银行因监管批复合并或批复解散而注销。 | 图源：企业预警通 | | --- | 中小银行被迫"瘦身" 为什么中小银行会批量"关门"？主要原因在于农村商业银行盈利能力的持续下降。 在这份长长的名单中，村镇银行处于重灾区。 11月25日，深圳坪山珠江村镇银行、鹤山珠江村镇银行解散宣布被广州农商银行合并；11月26日，大连甘井子浦发村镇银行解散。这些银行的名 字已经成为历史，取而代之的是大型银行的分支机构。 " 图源： 大连金融监管局 有人会说，这就是正常的"大鱼吃小鱼"，是"马太效应"，很多行业都会经历。但仔细观察会发现，无数中小银行加速退场的背后，本质是一场轰轰 烈烈的"化债"运动。 于是又有一个延伸问题：这些中小银行身上背负的"普惠金融"使命又将何去何从？对于身处低线城市或农村的普通人和创业者，这又意味着什么？ 这个数字不仅超过了去年全年，更 ...

市场一直把深铁当成万科的"定海神针"，但这根针最近自身都晃得厉害。根据双方协议，2025年深铁给 万科的借款额度上限是220亿元，到现在已经借了203.73亿元，剩下的额度连17亿都不到。 深铁不是不想帮，是真没余粮了。作为深圳轨道交通的主力军，它今年光建设地铁13号线就砸了超180 亿元，这条线路穿越南山核心区，拆迁成本比预期高了30%。 前三季度深铁的资产负债率冲到76.2%，近期发行的50亿元公司债，利率比去年上浮了0.8个百分点，融 资成本明显上升。 哈喽，大家好，我是小睿，12月的债券市场，万科成了最扎眼的存在，"22万科MTN004"单日跌幅超 23%，价格跌破68元，持有这只债券的投资者连夜刷屏维权。 谁能想到，压垮市场信心的，只是一笔20亿元的境内债展期申请。 要知道，万科可是行业龙头，背后还有国资深铁当"靠山"，可如今深铁的"输血管"快要见底，万科账上 656.8亿元现金又动不了，这场化债大戏越来越难唱了。 深铁"输血"见顶 要先付工程款、材料款，剩下的还要留足质保金，想往母公司转一分钱都要层层审批。"该项目至今只 向母公司回流了3000万元，还不够支付一笔信托利息。 12月的债务压力已经迫 ...

格隆汇12月5日丨建工修复(300958.SZ)在互动平台表示，公司联合研发的针对放射性污染土壤修复的科 研平台通过专家评审，可实现对土壤中放射性污染物的逐级修复治理，最终达到分类解控的修复目标。 公司暂无医疗废弃物经营许可也暂不涉及相关业务。公司高度关注化债政策及其落地情况，借助化债契 机大力推进回款事宜。凭借研发优势，公司避免在行业内进行同质化的低端竞争。 ...

格隆汇12月5日丨建工修复(300958.SZ)在互动平台表示，公司联合研发的针对放射性污染土壤修复的科 研平台通过专家评审，可实现对土壤中放射性污染物的逐级修复治理，最终达到分类解控的修复目标。 公司暂无医疗废弃物经营许可也暂不涉及相关业务。公司高度关注化债政策及其落地情况，借助化债契 机大力推进回款事宜。凭借研发优势，公司避免在行业内进行同质化的低端竞争。 ...

信用债2026年投资策略 主线重塑 俞柯帆 中信证券研究部 信用债分析师 （执业编号：S1010524100010） 2025年11月11日 请务必阅读末页的免责条款和声明 核心观点 债券科技板的横空出世为信用市场注入科创债的崭新血液，对于2026年而言，科创债市场的进一步扩容或将重塑信用 市场主线，科创债及相关衍生指数的配置机会值得重点关注。 化债工作临近收尾阶段，城投市场化转型加速，而转型升级后的产业公司预计将在2026年更多地试水债券市场，在重 塑市场格局的同时，所带来的配置价值也不可忽视。 国有地产与混合制企业定价逐步偏向"城投化" ，民企则可关注核心资产储备情况和去化情况。 在行业逐步修复和高风险主体逐步退出市场的背景下，我们认为板块再次集中出险的风险较低。考虑到当前多数机构 对于地产债定价仍偏谨慎，行业风险溢价仍较高，我们认为地产债配置性价比较高。 市场定价注重于房企属性，国有地产与混合制企业定价逐步偏向"城投化" ，股东支持和销售数据的回暖均可带来舆 情波动后的利差收窄机会，广义民企波动仍然比较大，建议布局核心资产充足的龙头国有房企与优质民营房企。 南向通非银机构扩容有望带来增量资金，中资离岸债 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the current economic challenges and the uncertainty surrounding the stock market's future performance, questioning the foundation of a bull market in terms of capital, earnings, policies, and the overall environment [1][2][10] - It highlights the disconnect between GDP growth and stock market performance, suggesting that the stock market is increasingly reflecting economic conditions, contrary to the belief that it is an independent entity [1][2] - The article mentions the potential for a localized technology bull market, drawing parallels to past market events, and suggests that the recent issues in the real estate sector may signify broader economic challenges [2][6] Group 2 - The current low asset return rates are prompting investors to consider stock investments as the only viable option, given the poor performance of traditional investments like real estate [3][14] - Inflation expectations are identified as a fundamental factor influencing market dynamics, with a suggestion that monetary expansion may be necessary to stimulate economic activity [4][15] - The article notes that while a widespread bull market may be difficult to achieve, sector-specific bull markets are still possible, emphasizing the need for strategic investment decisions rather than a passive approach [16]

Core Insights - In 2025, China's economy demonstrated strong resilience amid internal and external challenges, characterized by two "better than expected" and two "worse than expected" trends, with an overall growth rate showing a "high first, low second" trajectory [2][3][7] - For 2026, a GDP growth target of around 5% is anticipated, with a dual focus on both real and nominal GDP growth to address low inflation [2][11][18] Group 1: Economic Performance in 2025 - China's exports showed strong resilience, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% from January to October, supported by diversified market layouts and upgraded export structures [3][4] - The capital market outperformed expectations, driven by institutional reforms and increased risk appetite, particularly in technology stocks, leading to a significant bull market [4][5] - The real estate market's recovery was slower than anticipated, with real estate investment declining by 14.7% year-on-year from January to October, exceeding the previous year's decline [5][6] - Consumer spending showed initial improvement but fell short in the latter half of the year, with retail sales of home appliances declining significantly in the last quarter [6][7] Group 2: Economic Challenges and Policy Recommendations for 2026 - The core issues for 2026 will revolve around real estate and local government debt, which are intertwined and pose both short-term and long-term challenges [8][9] - Local government financial capacity is under pressure due to declining land sales revenue, which is expected to drop from 8.7 trillion yuan in 2021 to below 4 trillion yuan in 2025 [8][9] - To stabilize the economy, macroeconomic policies need to be more proactive, with a focus on fiscal policy, monetary policy, and real estate policy working in concert [2][11][19] - A "dual 5" growth target is recommended, aiming for both 5% real and nominal GDP growth, to embed price recovery within growth objectives [18][20] Group 3: Structural Changes and Future Outlook - The economic growth structure is expected to shift, with traditional growth drivers weakening and new drivers, such as service consumption and infrastructure investment, gaining momentum [12][13] - Despite ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical risks, China's exports are projected to remain resilient, supported by new demands from emerging markets and advancements in technology [12][14] - The real estate market is anticipated to undergo a prolonged adjustment period, with potential recovery contingent on easing policies in major cities and adjustments in mortgage rates [15][16] - The government is advised to implement a comprehensive policy framework to stabilize the real estate market, including the establishment of a "Real Estate Stability Fund" and increased fiscal support for local governments [22][23]

Manufacturing PMI Insights - November Manufacturing PMI increased slightly to 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from October's 49%[2] - Production index rose marginally by 0.3 percentage points to 50%, indicating weak production performance[8] - New orders index improved by 0.4 percentage points to 49.2%, slightly better than the same period last year[2] Inventory and Production Constraints - High inventory levels from previous months continue to constrain current production, with finished goods inventory index at 47.3%, down 0.8 percentage points[3] - The purchasing quantity index rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, but this increase is weaker compared to the previous month's decline of 2.6 percentage points[3] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI fell to 50.1%, while equipment manufacturing and consumer goods sectors dropped into contraction territory at 49.8% and 49.4% respectively[3] - High-energy consumption industries saw a PMI increase of 1.1 percentage points to 48.4%, reflecting some improvement in investment dynamics[3] Non-Manufacturing PMI Trends - Non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points, entering contraction territory primarily due to high base effects and holiday impact[4] - Service sector indices for shopping, accommodation, transportation, and tourism all showed declines, with real estate and residential services below critical levels[4] Economic Outlook - Despite short-term disruptions from high inventory, the economy is expected to maintain resilience due to supportive fiscal policies and sustained external demand[4] - The construction sector's PMI rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.6%, indicating potential for continued improvement in business activity[22]