Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the protein meal market, international soybean prices are affected by factors such as US policies, weather, and USDA reports, showing a volatile upward trend. Domestic soybean meal prices are also influenced by international prices and domestic supply and demand, with the price center rising. In the oil market, international oil prices are differentiated, with US soybean oil falling and Malaysian palm oil rising. Domestic oil prices are generally rising, but there are differences among varieties [6][59]. - Looking ahead to the next week, in the protein meal market, international soybeans may be affected by high - temperature weather, and the market is expected to be volatile and strong. Domestic soybean meal is also expected to be volatile and strong, with the M2601 contract oscillating between 3000 - 3200. In the oil market, international US soybean oil is volatile and domestic oils are strong, but further upward movement requires external forces [112][113]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Protein Meal Market Analysis 1. Market Trend - This week, CBOT soybeans first rose and then fell. The initial rise was due to expectations of improved US soybean export demand and hot and dry weather in some Midwestern farmlands, as well as the adjustment of positions by grain traders before the USDA report. The subsequent fall was due to profit - taking by investors and concerns about export demand. Affected by this, the domestic soybean meal market also first rose and then fell, with the price center rising [6]. 2. Export and Supply - related Data - US soybean export inspection volume exceeded market expectations, with a 18% decrease compared to the previous week but a 48% increase compared to the same period last year. As of August 7, 2025, the export inspection volume was 518,066 tons. The total export inspection volume for the 2024/25 season reached 48,367,647 tons, a 11.5% year - on - year increase [11]. 3. Weather and Planting Progress - In North America, most parts of the US are dry, which is beneficial for field operations but reduces soil moisture. Some areas have significant rainfall and strong thunderstorms. In Canada's prairie region, wet weather increases soil moisture but affects the early stage of small - grain cereal harvesting [26][30]. - As of August 10, 2025, the US soybean excellent - good rate was 68%, the flowering rate was 91%, and the pod - setting rate was 71% [22]. 4. Global Supply and Demand - For the US 2025/26 soybean season, the planting area is estimated to be 80.9 million acres, a decrease of 2.5 million acres from July. The yield is estimated to be 4.292 billion bushels, a decrease from July. The ending inventory is estimated to be 290 million bushels, a decrease from July. For the 2024/25 season, the export and crush expectations of US soybeans are increased, and the ending inventory of US soybean oil is increased. Globally, the 2025/26 soybean production is estimated to be 426 million tons, a decrease of 1.29 million tons from July, and the ending inventory is decreased by 1.17 million tons to 124 million tons [32][33]. 5. Domestic Market Indicators - Domestic spot and futures crushing profits have declined. As of the end of this week, the import soybean inventory at ports is about 6.8435 million tons, and the theoretical crush days are 19 days. The domestic soybean oil mill's average startup rate is 62.56%, an increase of 1.25% from last week. The domestic soybean meal inventory is 1.04 million tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons from last week [40][45]. Part 2: Oil Market Analysis 1. Market Trend - This week, international oil prices were differentiated. US soybean oil oscillated downward due to factors such as the decline of international crude oil, the fall of US soybeans, and uncertain biodiesel policies. Malaysian palm oil oscillated upward, but there are doubts about the sustainability of its export growth. Domestic oils generally rose, with soybean oil rising due to increased import costs, palm oil following Malaysian palm oil, and rapeseed oil first rising due to policies and then falling [59]. 2. International Oil - related Information - Indonesia may postpone the implementation of the B50 biodiesel plan, which may ease concerns about palm oil supply shortages. From August 1 - 10, Malaysian palm oil exports increased by 23.3% - 23.7% compared to the same period in July. In July 2025, Malaysian palm oil production was 1.8124 million tons, exports were 1.309 million tons, and the ending inventory was 2.1132 million tons [61][62]. 3. Domestic Oil - related Indicators - As of the 32nd week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.6066 million tons, a decrease of 3400 tons from the previous week. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.3079 million tons, an increase of 13,300 tons; edible palm oil inventory was 526,200 tons, a decrease of 3400 tons; rapeseed oil inventory was 772,500 tons, a decrease of 13,400 tons [78]. Part 3: Market Outlook 1. Technical Analysis - For protein meals, the short - term and medium - term indicators of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are bullish, while the long - term indicators are entangled. For oils, the short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators of soybean oil and palm oil are bullish, and the short - term indicators of rapeseed oil are entangled, with medium - term indicators bullish and long - term indicators entangled [112]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Protein meals: Internationally, US soybeans may be affected by high - temperature weather, and the market is expected to be volatile and strong. Domestically, the soybean oil mill's startup rate remains high, and soybean meal inventory may decrease steadily. The market is expected to be volatile and strong, with the M2601 contract oscillating between 3000 - 3200. - Oils: Internationally, US soybean oil is volatile due to lack of positive news. Malaysian palm oil has pressure at around 4500. Domestically, oils are strong, but further upward movement requires external forces [113].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron ore: The actual demand for steel has limited improvement, and the price has corrected from its high level [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Demand falls short of expectations, and the prices are in a weak and volatile state [2][9][10]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: The sentiment in the sector is weak, and the prices are in a weak and volatile state [2][15]. - Coke and coking coal: The sentiment has declined, and the prices are correcting from their high levels [2][18][19]. - Logs: The price fluctuates repeatedly [2][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price closed at 775.0 yuan/ton, down 20.0 yuan/ton (-2.52%). The import and some domestic ore prices also decreased. The basis and some spreads changed [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 12, 2025, South Korea plans to impose a five - year anti - dumping duty on Chinese - originated hot - rolled stainless steel plates [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0 [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar RB2510, the closing price was 3,189 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton (-1.82%); for hot - rolled coil HC2510, it was 3,432 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton (-1.18%). Inventory and production data also changed [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 14, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data changed. In July, financial statistics showed changes in M2, M1, etc. In late July, steel inventory and production data of key enterprises changed, and automobile production and sales data were released [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is - 1 [14]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices and various spreads also changed [15][16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 14, prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported. Some steel mills' procurement prices and quantities changed [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0 [17]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of coking coal JM2601 and coke J2601 decreased. Spot prices and various spreads changed [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 12, 2025, South Korea plans to impose a five - year anti - dumping duty on Chinese - originated hot - rolled stainless steel plates [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0 [21]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts changed. Spot prices of different types of logs in different regions were mostly stable [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In July, financial statistics showed that M2 and M1 had year - on - year growth [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0 [25].

Core Viewpoint - The unlocking of restricted shares for Sanyuan Biotech is a significant event, as it involves 92.946 million shares, accounting for 45.94% of the total share capital, which may impact market dynamics and investor sentiment [2][3][4]. Share Unlocking Details - Sanyuan Biotech announced that 92.946 million shares will be unlocked on August 11, representing 45.94% of the total share capital, primarily held by the controlling shareholder, Nie Zaijian [2][3]. - Out of the unlocked shares, 22.6719 million shares will be available for trading, while 70.2741 million shares will remain locked [3]. Shareholder Actions - In July, Sanyuan Biotech disclosed that shareholder Luxin Capital plans to reduce its holdings by up to 6 million shares within three months, raising concerns about the overall share liquidity [4]. Market Stability Measures - To stabilize market confidence amid the unlocking and potential shareholder sell-offs, Sanyuan Biotech's board approved a share buyback plan with a budget of 50 million to 100 million yuan [4]. Industry Challenges - Sanyuan Biotech faces challenges due to its reliance on international markets, with 70.70% of its revenue coming from exports in 2024 [6]. - The company is currently subject to a preliminary anti-dumping duty of 450.64% imposed by the U.S. Department of Commerce, which could significantly impact its sales in the U.S. market [6]. Product Structure Concerns - The company's product structure is heavily reliant on erythritol, which accounted for 72.30% of its revenue in 2024, making it vulnerable to market fluctuations [7]. - Sanyuan Biotech plans to diversify its product offerings and enhance R&D to mitigate risks associated with its current product concentration [7]. Market Conditions - The erythritol market has experienced significant price fluctuations, with prices dropping from 40,000 yuan/ton in 2021 to as low as 9,500 yuan/ton in the first half of 2023, affecting production incentives [7]. - The industry is currently in a phase of cyclical volatility, with excess capacity still a concern, although market mechanisms may lead to consolidation and improved conditions for efficient producers [7]. Future Outlook - Sanyuan Biotech is at a critical juncture, facing both internal and external pressures, and its ability to navigate these challenges for sustainable growth remains to be seen [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by Sanyuan Biological regarding the lifting of restrictions on a significant portion of its shares has raised concerns among investors, particularly in light of the company's operational challenges and reliance on international markets [2][3][6]. Group 1: Share Unlocking and Market Impact - Sanyuan Biological will unlock 92.946 million shares, accounting for 45.94% of its total share capital, on August 11, with 22.672 million shares available for trading [2][3]. - The company is facing additional market pressure as other shareholders, such as Luxin Capital, plan to reduce their holdings by up to 6 million shares [3]. - The unlocking of shares is expected to increase the total supply in the market, potentially leading to short-term stock price volatility, especially for companies with weaker fundamentals [5]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Challenges - Sanyuan Biological has experienced fluctuating performance, with revenues of 675 million yuan, 500 million yuan, and 713 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, and net profits of 164 million yuan, 56 million yuan, and 105 million yuan during the same period [5][6]. - The company heavily relies on international markets, with 70.70% of its main business revenue coming from exports in 2024 [6]. - The U.S. Department of Commerce has imposed a preliminary anti-dumping duty of 450.64% on Sanyuan Biological, which is expected to impact its sales in the U.S. market [6]. Group 3: Product Structure and Market Conditions - Sanyuan Biological's product structure is relatively singular, with erythritol revenue constituting 72.30% of total revenue in 2024 [7]. - The company acknowledges that fluctuations in the erythritol market or failures in new product development could adversely affect its performance [7]. - The erythritol market has seen significant price declines, with prices dropping from a peak of 40,000 yuan/ton in 2021 to as low as 9,500 yuan/ton in the first half of 2023, leading to reduced production and market exits by some companies [7]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - In response to market pressures, Sanyuan Biological has initiated a share buyback program, aiming to repurchase shares worth between 50 million and 100 million yuan [4]. - As the company navigates internal and external pressures, its ability to adapt and achieve sustainable growth remains to be seen [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by Sanyuan Bio regarding the lifting of restrictions on a significant portion of its shares has raised concerns among investors, particularly in light of the company's operational challenges and reliance on international markets [2][3][5]. Share Unlocking and Market Impact - Sanyuan Bio will unlock 92.946 million shares on August 11, representing 45.94% of its total share capital, primarily held by the controlling shareholder, Nie Zaijian [2][3]. - Out of the unlocked shares, 22.6719 million shares will be available for trading, while 70.2741 million shares will remain locked [3]. - The company has also disclosed that another shareholder, Luxin Capital, plans to reduce its holdings by up to 6 million shares within three months, further intensifying market scrutiny [3]. Market Confidence and Stock Buyback - In response to the potential market pressure from the share unlock and shareholder reductions, Sanyuan Bio has initiated measures to stabilize market confidence, including a share buyback plan with a budget of 50 million to 100 million yuan [4]. - As of July 8, 2025, the company has repurchased approximately 2.33 million shares, accounting for 1.15% of its total share capital, with a total expenditure of about 60.68 million yuan [4]. Operational Challenges - Sanyuan Bio has faced operational challenges, including a significant reliance on international markets, with 70.70% of its revenue coming from exports in 2024 [6]. - The company has experienced revenue fluctuations, with reported revenues of 675 million yuan in 2022, 500 million yuan in 2023, and 713 million yuan in 2024, alongside net profits of 164 million yuan, 56 million yuan, and 105 million yuan for the same years [6]. - The recent imposition of a 450.64% anti-dumping duty by the U.S. Department of Commerce poses additional challenges for the company's sales in the U.S. market [6][7]. Product Structure and Market Dynamics - Sanyuan Bio's product structure is heavily reliant on erythritol, which accounted for 72.30% of its revenue in 2024, raising concerns about vulnerability to market fluctuations [8]. - The erythritol market has experienced significant price volatility, with prices dropping from a peak of 40,000 yuan per ton in 2021 to as low as 9,500 yuan per ton in the first half of 2023 [8]. - The industry is currently in a phase of cyclical volatility, with excess capacity still a concern, although market mechanisms are expected to lead to consolidation and a more favorable competitive landscape for efficient producers [8]. Future Outlook - Sanyuan Bio is at a critical juncture, facing both internal and external pressures, and its ability to navigate these challenges and achieve sustainable growth remains to be seen [9].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce has preliminarily determined that Oman is circumventing anti-dumping and countervailing duties on similar products from China by using hot-rolled steel produced in China to manufacture circular welded carbon steel pipes (CWP) [1][3]. Group 1: Investigation and Findings - The investigation began on November 19, 2024, focusing on circumvention activities across Oman, with Al Jazeera Steel Products Company SAOG identified as the mandatory respondent [3]. - The average anti-dumping duty rate for Chinese CWP is 85.55%, while the countervailing duty rate is as high as 198.49% [3]. - The U.S. has intensified scrutiny on imported steel products, particularly those processed through third countries to evade tariffs [3][4]. Group 2: Market Impact - In 2024, the U.S. imported approximately 50,000 tons of CWP from Oman, accounting for 2.5% of total imports, with Chinese hot-rolled steel remaining competitive in the global market due to price advantages [4]. - The preliminary ruling may lead to the imposition of tariffs on Omani CWP similar to those on Chinese products, potentially exceeding 200%, which would significantly raise export costs for Oman and affect its competitiveness in the U.S. market [5]. - U.S. domestic steel producers like Nucor and Steel Dynamics may benefit from this situation as their market share could increase [5]. Group 3: Broader Context - The global steel market is currently facing an oversupply situation, with low-priced steel from China entering the U.S. market through third countries, leading to ongoing trade disputes [5]. - Similar circumvention issues have been observed in global trade, with countries like Vietnam and Thailand also facing investigations by the U.S. [4].

Core Points - Indonesia's diplomatic strategy between the US and China has faced significant challenges, leading to a trade agreement with the US that has sparked international trade tensions [1] - The US imposed punitive tariffs of up to 32% on Indonesian goods, which were later negotiated down to 19% after intense diplomatic discussions [3] - The trade agreement allows US goods to enter Indonesia tariff-free while Indonesian products face a 19% tariff in the US, creating an imbalanced trade environment [5] - Indonesia is required to import at least $19 billion worth of goods from the US annually, including $10 billion in energy products, which poses risks to its domestic market [6] - The Indonesian government plans to use US imports for re-export to mitigate losses, but this strategy carries significant risks, including potential impacts on local agriculture and market saturation [7] - The US government promotes the agreement as a means to access Southeast Asian markets, but this claim may overstate Indonesia's market capacity and is driven by strategic interests in nickel resources [9] - China's response includes maintaining anti-dumping duties on Indonesian steel products, signaling a strong stance against perceived discriminatory practices [12] - The trade agreement reflects a complex geopolitical struggle, with Indonesia caught between the US and China, raising concerns about its economic viability and future trade relations [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is preparing to impose anti-dumping duties on Canadian lumber, casting a shadow over Canada's attempts to negotiate a reduction in tariff threats [1][4]. Group 1: Trade Dispute Background - The softwood lumber tariff dispute between Canada and the U.S. has become one of the longest-standing trade disputes between the two countries [4]. - For the past 25 years, the U.S. lumber industry has frequently sought to limit Canadian softwood imports through anti-subsidy and anti-dumping laws [4]. Group 2: Recent Developments - On July 25, the U.S. government announced the results of an anti-dumping investigation, determining that Canada was dumping softwood lumber and will impose anti-dumping duties on such imports [1]. - The U.S. Department of Commerce proposed significantly increasing the anti-dumping duties on Canadian softwood lumber earlier this year, which has raised concerns in the U.S. construction industry that relies on Canadian imports for about one-third of its lumber needs [4]. Group 3: Duty Rates and Economic Impact - The current anti-subsidy and anti-dumping duty rates on Canadian lumber are 14.5%, which may be increased to over 34.5% following a review by the U.S. Department of Commerce [4][5]. - As of April, the U.S. government had threatened to impose "reciprocal tariffs" on lumber, although lumber was ultimately exempted from new tariffs [4].

据中国贸易救济信息网，7月18日，印度财政部税收局发布通报称，接受印度商工部于2025年4月22日对 原产于或进口自中国的苯胺作出的第一次反倾销日落复审肯定性终裁建议，决定继续对中国的涉案产品 征收为期5年的反倾销税，具体如下：涉案生产商万华化学集团股份有限公司为36.90美元/吨，其他中 国生产商为121.79美元/吨。本案涉及印度海关编码292141项下的产品。措施自本通报发布于官方公报 之日起生效。 2022年12月12日，印度商工部发布公告称，应印度进口商NOCIL Limited提交的申请，对原产于或进口 自中国的苯胺启动反倾销期中复审调查，审查形势变化下是否有必要撤销或修改现行的反倾销措施。 2023年12月11日，印度商工部对该案作出肯定性终裁，裁定维持2021年1月20日原审终裁确定的反倾销 措施不变。 2024年9月24日，印度商工部发布公告称，应印度国内企业Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited提交的申请，对原产于或进口自中国的苯胺发起第一次反倾销日落复审调查。2025年 4月22日，印度商工部对该案作出肯定性终裁。 2 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce has determined that Chinese imports of graphite are subject to unfair subsidies, imposing a preliminary anti-dumping duty of 93.5% on Chinese anode-grade graphite [1] - Graphite is a critical material for electric vehicle batteries, indicating potential implications for the EV industry [1] - The Chinese Foreign Ministry emphasized the importance of mutual benefit in U.S.-China economic cooperation and urged adherence to market economy rules for stable development of bilateral trade relations [1]