货币市场日报：3月25日 新华财经北京3月25日电（高二山）人民银行25日开展3779亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率持平1.5%；鉴于当日有2733亿元逆回购 到期，公开市场实现净投放1046亿元。 上海银行间同业拆放利率（Shibor）短期品种均小幅上涨，7天品种涨幅略大。具体来看，隔夜Shibor上涨2.50BP，报1.7750%；7天 Shibor上涨7.00BP，报1.8150%；14天Shibor上涨1.90BP，报2.1190%。 | | | | 2025-03-25 11:00 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期限 | Shibor(%) | 涨跌(BP) | | t | O/N | 1.7750 | 2.50 | | 中 | 1W | 1.8150 | 7.00 | | 中 | 2W | 2.1190 | 1.90 | | や | 1M | 1.9550 | 1.10 | | 中 | 3M | 1.9420 | 1.90 | | ↑ | 6M | 1.9490 | 1.20 | | ⇒ | 9M | 1.9510 | 1.30 | | | 1Y | 1.9490 ...

Core Viewpoint - Since the beginning of the year, the funding environment has remained tight, particularly with a noticeable increase in short-term interest rates. The article explores the remaining government debt supply for the first quarter, the liquidity gap in March, and whether the funding situation will improve [1][4]. Group 1: Funding Tightness - The funding environment has been tight since the start of 2025, with the central bank increasing the scale of reverse repos. Despite this, the pressure on liquidity has slightly eased from January to February, with a reduction in liquidity stratification [1][4]. - The central bank's operations included a resumption of 14-day reverse repos before the Spring Festival, while the scale of medium-term lending facility (MLF) continued to decrease. The buyout reverse repo operations have provided significant support for medium to long-term liquidity [5][6]. Group 2: Government Debt Supply - In March, it is estimated that the issuance of government bonds will reach approximately 1.4 trillion yuan, with a net financing scale of nearly 650 billion yuan after accounting for 712.2 billion yuan in maturing bonds. Local government bonds are expected to total around 1.3 trillion yuan, resulting in a combined net financing scale of over 1.8 trillion yuan for government debt [2][14]. Group 3: Liquidity Outlook - The liquidity gap in March is projected to be around 260 billion yuan, indicating some pressure on the funding environment. However, after the "Two Sessions," funding rates are expected to trend towards easing, with the central bank's net injection likely to increase marginally [3][19]. - The article suggests that the central bank may primarily use buyout reverse repos to supplement medium to long-term liquidity during the phase of increased government debt supply, which could lead to a decrease in funding rates, especially for short-term bonds [19].

Group 1: Liquidity and Market Conditions - The liquidity pressure has eased slightly this week, but it cannot be termed as relaxed, with overnight funding rates decreasing and 7-day funding rates slightly increasing[3] - The average net supply in the banking system from February 24 to February 28 was 1.52 trillion yuan, an increase of 335.7 billion yuan compared to the previous week[4] - The central bank's recent open market operations indicate a supportive stance, with a net injection of 433.1 billion yuan during the week[26] Group 2: Money Market Trends - As of February 28, the average rates for DR001 and DR007 decreased by 9.5 basis points and 8.9 basis points to 1.86% and 2.13%, respectively[4] - The average daily transaction volume for interbank pledged repos was 49,981 billion yuan, an increase of 38.2 billion yuan compared to the previous week[4] - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) from February 24 to February 28 totaled 715.2 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of -382.8 billion yuan, indicating increased issuance but reduced net financing[5] Group 3: Government Debt and Fiscal Policy - The net payment for government bonds next week is projected to be 248.6 billion yuan, a decrease compared to the previous week, which may have a limited impact on liquidity[32] - The upcoming government bond issuance includes 2.63 billion yuan in national bonds and 2.175 billion yuan in local bonds, with a total issuance of 4.805 billion yuan[32] Group 4: Risk Factors - Key risk factors include policy uncertainty, unexpected changes in the economic fundamentals, and geopolitical risks from overseas[7]