9月30日，荷兰政府以一纸部长令，试图夺取中资控股企业安世半导体的控制权，令世界震惊。 一个半月以来，该事件愈演愈烈，引发全球产业链震荡。本周，这场"半导体劫案"终于迎来新的转折 点。先是荷兰宣布将放弃接管安世控制权，接着又表示将派高级代表团来华寻求磋商。 事实上，这场精心布局的"大劫案"的复杂程度远超人们的想象。它并非一起单纯的商业纠纷，背后是美 欧对中国发起的又一场关于技术、产业链和地缘政治的围猎。 当地时间11月13日，英国《卫报》刊登了对荷兰经济大臣卡雷曼斯的专访。 专访中，这位在荷兰政坛资历尚浅的经济大臣卡雷曼斯感谢中国就安世半导体事件所采取的积极措施， 但对于自己搞出来的烂摊子，却仍然不知悔改："如果我身处同样的位置，拥有我现在所掌握的信息， 我仍会再做同样的事。" 对此，中国商务部发言人回应称，中方对这种混淆是非、颠倒黑白、一意孤行的言论表示极度失望和强 烈不满。 要知道，也是在13日这天，中方刚刚宣布同意荷兰经济部派员来华磋商的消息。 中国商务部新闻发言人何亚东：安世半导体问题发生以来，中方一直本着对全球半导体产供链稳定与安 全的负责任态度，与荷方进行了多轮磋商，并同意荷兰经济部派员来华磋商的 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and adjusted. The main contract of Shanghai copper rose 1.12% to close at 86,900 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs affected copper prices, while the force majeure incident at an Indonesian copper mine and the sharp rise in precious metals supported copper prices. Domestically, it is the consumption off - season with general downstream consumption willingness. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading is mainly for rigid demand. The LME copper inventory was 135,725 tons last week with a slight decrease, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5,628 tons to 109,407 tons compared with the previous week. The copper market is expected to be in tight balance in 2024 and in surplus in 2025 [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper rose 1.12% to close at 86,900 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs affected copper prices, while the force majeure incident at an Indonesian copper mine and the sharp rise in precious metals supported copper prices. Domestically, it is the consumption off - season with general downstream consumption willingness. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading is mainly for rigid demand. The LME copper inventory was 135,725 tons last week with a slight decrease, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5,628 tons to 109,407 tons compared with the previous week [4]. 3.2 Fundamentals - **PMI**: No detailed information provided [10]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The copper market is expected to be in tight balance in 2024 and in surplus in 2025. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 - 2024, with a supply surplus of 110,000 tons in 2024 [12][15]. - **Inventory**: The LME copper inventory was 135,725 tons last week with a slight decrease, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5,628 tons to 109,407 tons compared with the previous week. The bonded - area inventory remained at a low level [4][19]. 3.3 Market Structure - **Processing fees**: Processing fees are at a low level [22]. - **CFTC positions**: Non - commercial net long positions in CFTC flowed out [24]. - **Futures - spot price difference**: No detailed information provided [27]. - **Import profit**: No detailed information provided [30]. - **Warehouse receipts**: No detailed information provided.

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 俄罗斯西部港口恢复出口，关注南美地缘动态。OPEC 最新月报预计 26 | | 原油 | | 年原油供给出现过剩，油价大幅回落；OPEC+计划于 12 月继续扩产 13.7 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 万桶/日，并计划于明年初暂停扩产；供需方面，消费淡季开启，OPEC+ | | | | 仍在扩产周期，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大，重点关 | | | | 注原油边际产量变化。策略：空单部分止盈。 | | | | 油价企稳，库存端利好，液化气反弹走强。成本端原油受俄乌地缘扰动， | | LPG | | 企稳反弹；供需方面，液化气商品量下降，下游 PDH 开工小幅下降，需 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 求端韧性较强；库存端利好，港口与厂内库存连续去库。策略：成本端油 | | | | 价反弹，但上行空间受限，买入看跌期权。 | | | | 基差修复，主力移仓换月，盘面企稳反弹。国内开工季节性回升，进口量 | | L | 空头反弹 | 集中到港，国内外供给延续宽松格局 ...

前言： 11月14日这天，匈牙利总理欧尔班的每周广播节目成了欧洲舆论的焦点。他在节目里拍板钉钉，要把欧 盟告到欧洲法院，就因为对方刚通过的禁止进口俄罗斯天然气的决定。 这事儿乍看是中东欧小国跟欧盟叫板，往深了挖全是能源安全、地缘博弈和欧盟内部团结的盘根错节， 每个细节都透着各方的无奈与算计。 很多人好奇，匈牙利凭什么敢跟欧盟唱反调？答案就攥在能源管道里。国际货币基金组织2024年的最新 数据说得很明白，这个国家74%的天然气和86%的石油都要从俄罗斯进口。这种依赖不是临时抱佛脚， 是几十年产业布局攒下的"惯性"，全国的经济民生都绑在这条能源线上。 工厂的生产线一断气就得停转，化工企业的原料加工全靠稳定供气撑着，这些都是实打实的经济命脉。 到了冬天更不用说，中东欧的严寒能持续小半年，天然气是千家万户暖气的核心来源。 真要是按欧盟说的停了俄能源，匈牙利面临的不只是GDP下滑，很可能是老百姓家里断暖、企业倒闭 的民生动荡。 这次欧盟投票时，斯洛伐克跟匈牙利站在一起投了反对票，根源也是一样的能源难题。这些中东欧国家 地理上挨着俄罗斯，早早就修好了配套的运输管道和储存设施，"友谊"输油管道和"土耳其溪"天然气管 道更是 ...

股市最近写了很多，还有疑问的或者没看到文章的， 资料都放在了咱私密群里 。 临近年尾了，金融圈却震荡的更厉害了，上演一场"全线大逃杀"。 特朗普的关税大棒、地缘政治的阴霾，还有那估值泡沫戳破的响亮声，让抛售情绪像野火般四处蔓 延…… 今天聊聊 最扎眼的比特币、科技股和黄金。 1 从"信仰"到"恐慌"，全球开始抛售比特币！ 这回真撑不住了，没什么能挡得了比特币的颓势！ 比特币周四跌破10万美元后，一度暴跌约4%至9.8万美元； 昨天更厉害，直接砸穿9.6万，低点比前天更低。 比特币已进入确定性熊市！ 自上月12.5万美元的历史高位，已跌逾20%，市值蒸发超过4500亿美元。 美联储降息预期凉凉、新一轮避险情绪高烧、科技股集体跳水…… 把市场推入"脆弱模式"。 接连爆仓、信心重挫！ 1 0月11日，比特币24小时内重挫13% ， 单日全网爆仓额达193.58亿美元，约166万交易者被强平。 10月17日再度下跌，24小时内又有超20万人爆仓 ； 11月13日，比特币价格出现单日暴跌，跌幅超过8% ； 当天，全网加密货币合约市场共有超过15万投资者被爆仓，爆仓总金额超过60亿美元； 要知道，在任何市场，信心大于一切 ...

克里姆林宫于11月12日星期三确认，俄罗斯总统助理尤里·乌沙科夫今年年初曾与英国国家安全顾问乔纳森·鲍威尔进行过一次通话。 此前，英国《金融时报》曾率先报道了这一消息，引发了外界对俄英关系以及欧洲地缘政治互动的广泛关注。根据《金融时报》的报道，鲍威尔在1月主动 致电乌沙科夫，主要目的是希望与莫斯科建立一个保密的沟通渠道。然而，这次谈话并未取得预期的成果，双方未能成功建立定期沟通机制。 克里姆林宫发言人德米特里·佩斯科夫在日常记者会上回应时表示，这一报道是准确的，确实存在过相关讨论，但双方的沟通未能继续下去。佩斯科夫进一 步解释，通话未能延续的主要原因是鲍威尔当时急于阐述欧洲方面的立场，却几乎不愿听取俄罗斯的观点。他表示，如果没有相互交流的空间，谈话自然无 法取得更多进展。 从俄方的角度来看，这一表述揭示了此次沟通受阻的关键原因。《金融时报》还提到，此次通话是英国方面主动提出的，且得到了部分欧洲盟友的支持。背 后的一个重要考虑因素是，欧洲一些国家担心美国总统特朗普对乌克兰问题的立场不明确，可能导致欧盟在相关事务中的利益被边缘化。一位欧洲官员在接 受该报采访时直言："我们担心的是，现在与俄罗斯的沟通正在被'外包' ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding (★★) [1] - Silver: Long - term holding (★★) [1] - Copper: Long - term holding (★) [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure (★) [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure (★) [1] - Tin: High - level under pressure (★) [1] - Aluminum: Relatively strong (★★) [1] - Nickel: Relatively weak (★) [1] - Industrial silicon: Range - bound (★) [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish (★★) [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level operation (★) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall precious metals market is supported by factors such as repeated statements from Fed officials and weak micro - data, and long - term value allocation is recommended [1][2][3] - The copper market is bullish in the medium - to - long - term due to tight copper concentrate supply and increasing green copper demand, and it is recommended to hold long positions [1][5][6] - The zinc market is expected to have an increase in supply and a decrease in demand in the medium - to - long - term, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [1][9][10] - The aluminum market shows a relatively strong short - term trend due to overseas supply contraction, but attention should be paid to downstream demand changes [1][11][13] - The nickel market is relatively weak because of high inventory and weak downstream consumption, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [1][15][17] - The lithium carbonate market remains in a tight supply - demand situation, and it is recommended to take profit at high levels and wait for dips to go long [1][19][21] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: US big data is blank, micro - data is weak, Fed officials' statements are repeated, silver has fallen from its high, but gold and silver are generally supported [2] - **Basic Logic**: The US government shutdown has ended; some micro - data has turned weak, such as Verizon's large - scale layoffs and an increase in US foreclosure property numbers; Fed officials' statements are inconsistent; China's central bank has continuously increased its gold reserves, and gold may be in a long - term bull market [2][3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, domestic gold has support at 935, and silver has strong support at 12000. Long - term value - allocation positions should be held [3] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper is consolidating at a high level, facing pressure at the 88,000 - yuan mark [5] - **Industrial Logic**: In Q3 2025, the output of major global copper mining enterprises decreased by nearly 5% year - on - year, and the contraction is expected to continue in Q4. Refined copper supply has shrunk. Consumption has entered the off - season, and the downstream start - up rate is weak year - on - year [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to continue holding long positions in copper. In the medium - to - long - term, copper is still bullish. The short - term range for Shanghai copper is [86,000 - 89,000] yuan/ton, and for London copper is [10,500 - 11,000] US dollars/ton [6] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc has fallen under pressure and is in a volatile consolidation [9] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas zinc mine output has declined recently, zinc concentrate supply has tightened in the short term, and domestic zinc concentrate processing fees have continued to fall. Consumption has entered the off - season, and overseas LME zinc inventory has continued to accumulate [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profit on long positions at high levels. In the medium - to - long - term, zinc supply will increase and demand will decrease, and it is recommended to sell on rebounds. The range for Shanghai zinc is [22,400 - 22,800] yuan/ton, and for London zinc is [3,000 - 3,100] US dollars/ton [10] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices have risen and then fallen, and alumina is relatively weak [12] - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas supply is expected to be tight due to production cuts, and domestic demand is turning from peak to off - season. For alumina, overseas shipments have decreased, and domestic high - cost enterprises may cut production due to losses, but the market is still in an oversupply situation in the short term [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profit on Shanghai aluminum at high levels in the short term, and pay attention to the start - up changes of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is [21,300 - 22,300] [14] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices have continued to fall, and stainless steel is in a weak trend [16] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas nickel inventory is at a high level, and domestic nickel inventory has also accumulated. The terminal consumption of stainless steel is weak, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the long term [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short nickel and stainless steel on rebounds, and pay attention to downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [117,500 - 120,000] [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 has fluctuated higher, hitting a recent high during the session, and the late - session gains have declined [20] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply - demand situation remains tight, with inventory decreasing for 12 consecutive weeks. Domestic production has reached a new high, and terminal market performance is strong. However, the resumption of production may put pressure on prices [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions near the previous high [86,000 - 88,000] [22]

Group 1 - Oil and gas concept stocks strengthened, with Jerry Holdings and Intercontinental Oil rising over 7% [1] - Oil and gas resource-related ETFs increased by approximately 2% due to the rise of heavy-weight stocks [1] Group 2 - Specific ETFs showed the following performance: - Oil and Gas Resource ETF (code: 563150) at 1.100, up 0.022 (2.04%) - Oil and Gas ETF Boshi (code: 561760) at 1.107, up 0.020 (1.84%) - Oil and Gas Resource ETF (code: 159309) at 1.148, up 0.020 (1.77%) [2] - Brokerages indicate that despite geopolitical uncertainties, the medium to long-term oil supply and demand structure remains favorable, maintaining a positive outlook on "three major oil companies" and the oil service sector [2] - The recovery of the macro economy is expected to boost chemical demand, and in the long term, the clearing of chemical product capacity is beneficial for leading enterprises, with a positive outlook on large-scale refining, coal chemical, and ethylene profitability [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On November 13th, equity index futures rose while CGB futures declined; most commodity futures advanced, with energy and chemical futures relatively weak [2][9][11]. - The top three gainers in commodity futures were silver, polysilicon and apples, while the top three decliners were low - sulfur fuel oil, fuel oil and crude oil [10][11][12]. - Silver prices may rise further if gold prices maintain a volatile and strong trend and the US dollar continues to pull back; 20 -号胶 prices are likely to maintain a bottom - volatile trend with strong elasticity but may face downward adjustment pressure; crude oil prices are likely to maintain a volatile trend in the short - term [17][26][35]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On November 13th, China's financial futures: IC and IM both gained 1.7%; TL fell 0.3%. In commodity futures, most advanced, with energy and chemical futures relatively weak [9]. - The top three gainers in commodity futures were silver (up 5.5% with open interest decreasing 1.6% month - on - month), polysilicon (up 3.7% with open interest increasing 2.4% month - on - month) and apples (up 3.3% with open interest up 13.0% month - on - month). The top three decliners were low - sulfur fuel oil (down 4.4% with open interest falling 10.6% month - on - month), fuel oil (down 3.7% with open interest increasing 20.9% month - on - month) and crude oil (down 3.7% with open interest decreasing 19.3% month - on - month) [10][11][12]. 1.2 Daily Raise - **Silver**: On November 13th, silver rose 5.5% to 12,588 yuan/kg. London market supply tightness alleviated in October, with silver inventories in London vaults surging by about 54 million ounces. Spot prices are supported by capital momentum and have broken through the previous psychological threshold. Weak corporate confidence and slowing employment may lead to further strengthening of interest - rate cut expectations, supporting silver prices [15][16][17]. - **TSR20**: On November 13th, TSR20 rose 1.8% to 12,400 yuan/ton. China entered the rubber - tapping suspension period in November, and RU - related themes still have speculation space. The supply - demand pattern of natural rubber has not changed significantly, but from a seasonal perspective, rubber prices may face downward adjustment pressure [24][25][26]. 1.3 Daily Drop - **Crude Oil**: On November 13th, crude oil fell 3.7% to 449.5 yuan/barrel. API data showed US crude oil inventories continued to build up and refined oil inventories declined last week. OPEC revised down its global supply - demand balance forecast, while EIA indicated US crude oil production remains resilient. Oil prices are likely to maintain a volatile trend in the short - term [32][33][35]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - Premier Li Qiang will attend the 24th Meeting of the Council of Heads of Government (Prime Ministers) of the SCO Member States in Moscow from November 17 - 18, pay an official visit to Zambia from November 19 - 20, and attend the 20th G20 Summit in Johannesburg from November 21 - 23 [40]. 2.2 Industry News - The market value of A - shares held by foreign investors currently exceeds RMB 3.5 trillion, and efforts will be made to include more futures and options products in the scope of opening - up [41]. - From January to October, the cumulative trading volume and turnover of China's national futures market increased by 14.86% and 21.82% year - on - year, respectively [41].

北溪管道系统原本设计用于俄罗斯直接向德国输送天然气，总容量高达550亿立方米每年，这套海底管道绕过乌克兰等过境国，减少了地缘政治干扰。 2022年9月管道遭遇破坏后，欧洲能源市场陷入动荡，德国等国转向美国液化天然气，导致进口成本飙升两倍以上。 美国借机扩大市场份额，从2022年的700亿立方米出口量增长到2025年的1400亿立方米，占据欧洲近半壁江山。 武契奇的预测源于他对国际谈判的观察，他强调德国急需廉价俄罗斯天然气，以支撑工业竞争力。北溪2号的一条支线未遭破坏，年输气能力达275亿立方 米，若恢复运营，能显著缓解欧洲能源压力。 但武契奇断言，这一管道不会由俄罗斯主导，而是通过拍卖落入美国人之手。这一判断并非空谈，早于2024年11月，美国投资者斯蒂芬·林奇已向财政部申 请许可，意图在瑞士破产程序中竞标管道。 这种更新并非技术进步那么简单，而是美国私有化运营的体现，所有权与供应分离，符合欧盟2024年气体指令要求，避免俄罗斯一体化控制的弊端。 俄罗斯官方对出售持否定态度，克里姆林宫发言人佩斯科夫明确表示未闻俄气公司出售意图，外交部长拉夫罗夫也未确认相关对话。但经济压力下，俄罗斯 可能默许这一交易，以换取制 ...