然而，加拿大政府对此次事件的反应令人玩味。13日，加拿大官员发表联合声明，表示对中国的决定"深感失望"，但 同时愿意与中方展开谈判以解决贸易争端。加方还重申，他们准备与中国官员开展建设性的对话，并进行相应领域的 磋商。可是，加拿大国内官员在接受媒体采访时，却多次流露出一种暗示，认为此时是一个特殊的时期，加拿大与美 国正处于关税谈判的关键阶段，必须从整个局势出发，不能轻易取消对中国电动汽车的关税。现阶段，贸易谈判显得 极为困难，因此并不排除中国可能会采取更为严厉的应对措施。 分析人士指出，透过这些事件，可以看出加拿大在国际事务中受到了美国的影响，尤其在对华政策的制定上，其部分 决策受到美国战略导向的干扰。此前，加拿大先后对中国的电动汽车和钢铝产品征收关税，中方随即对加拿大油菜籽 发起了反倾销调查。这一系列的贸易摩擦，背后隐含着相当复杂的地缘政治背景。加拿大政府似乎未能充分评估中方 在去年的某个时刻，欧盟国家针对中国出口的电动汽车采取了加征关税的措施。紧接着，加拿大也采取了类似的行 动，对从中国进口的电动汽车展开了征税。面对这种局面，中国方面表示了严重不满，并在警告无果的情况下启动了 对加拿大油菜籽的反倾销调查， ...

Core Viewpoint - The future of global technology and energy may hinge on the Eniba mining area in Australia, which holds rare earth resources valued at hundreds of billions, becoming a geopolitical "ticking time bomb" [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Context - Australia is investing $1 billion to challenge China's dominance in the rare earth sector, aiming to establish an independent supply chain for the West [1][5] - The U.S. Department of Defense has warned that critical defense equipment relies heavily on rare earth magnets, making supply chain disruptions a national security issue [1] - The dependency of the U.S. (80%), EU (98%), Japan, and South Korea on Chinese rare earth imports highlights the vulnerability of global manufacturing [3] Group 2: Industry Challenges - Iluka Resources has accumulated $650 million worth of rare earths as a byproduct of zircon mining, but refining poses significant challenges due to the complex and costly processes involved [3][5] - The Australian government is prioritizing national strategy over commercial logic, providing low-interest loans to support the establishment of a refining facility expected to be operational in two years [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global rare earth demand will double by 2030, driven by the growth of electric vehicles and wind energy [7] - Market speculation is already occurring despite the Australian refining plant not yet being operational, raising concerns about the ability to withstand potential price wars initiated by China [7] - The U.S. is also increasing investments in rare earth resources, with plans for new facilities and expansions in various regions, indicating a competitive race for rare earth resources [7] Group 4: Long-term Implications - The ultimate control in the rare earth sector lies not in mining but in refining and magnet manufacturing, where China currently holds a complete supply chain advantage [8] - The outcome of this geopolitical gamble will significantly impact global energy transition and high-end manufacturing, suggesting a complex and uncertain future for all involved [8]

左侧布多 原油周报 2025/08/16 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0022675 徐绍祖 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估&策略推荐 04 原油供应 02 宏观&地缘 05 原油需求 03 油品价差 06 原油库存 01 周度评估&策略推荐 行情回顾 图1：WTI主力合约近月走势（$/桶） 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 2025/1/1 2025/1/8 2025/1/15 2025/1/22 2025/1/29 2025/2/5 2025/2/12 2025/2/19 2025/2/26 2025/3/5 2025/3/12 2025/3/19 2025/3/26 2025/4/2 2025/4/9 2025/4/16 2025/4/23 2025/4/30 2025/5/7 2025/5/14 2025/5/21 2025/5/28 2025/6/4 2025/6/11 2025/6/18 2025/6/25 2025/7/2 2025/7/9 2025/ ...

来源：中国商报 中信证券在研报中称，若此次"普特会"仅止步于短期停火，大类资产的反应将更多是情绪面的"短线操 作"，黄金、原油及美元的地缘风险溢价可能阶段性回落，而欧股和美股或将迎来短暂上行。然而，一 旦双方能在解除对俄制裁等问题上取得实质性突破，无疑将对全球大宗商品的供给端构成深远影响。 | 08.16 | 老庙黄金 | 1000元/克 | 持平 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 08.16 | 菜百首饰 | 982元/克 | 持平 | | 08.16 | 周六福 | 988元/克 | 持平 | | 08.16 | 周大生 | ct 1002元/克 | 跌6 | 老铺黄金宣布将于8月25日进行产品提价调整。至于具体涨价幅度，老铺黄金旗舰店线上客服人员表 示："现在只接到了8月25日会调价的通知，具体调价幅度需要等到具体调价后才知道，以页面实际标价 为准。" 消息面上，当地时间8月15日11时20分许，美国总统特朗普和俄罗斯总统普京在美国阿拉斯加州安克雷 奇市埃尔门多夫—理查森联合军事基地正式开始会晤。 本周金价走势表明，对于此次会晤，黄金市场早已做出"提前反应"。Gold Bull ...

Group 1 - The global oil demand has been recovering for two consecutive years, with Europe and Asia becoming focal points in energy flows and geopolitical competition [1] - The recent oil joint development agreement between the US and Pakistan has sparked significant global attention, with Pakistan's proven oil reserves exceeding 1 billion barrels [3] - The US's involvement in Pakistan's energy sector is seen as a strategic move to counterbalance China's influence, particularly in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor [5] Group 2 - The US has increased its focus on Kazakhstan, imposing a 25% tariff on Kazakh exports, which is part of a broader strategy to secure key resources like rare earths and uranium [6] - Kazakhstan has emerged as a critical player in the global mineral sector, with new rare earth mineral discoveries ranking among the highest globally [7] - The US aims to position its companies as preferred partners in Kazakhstan's energy and mineral sectors, explicitly seeking to displace Chinese enterprises [9] Group 3 - The geopolitical dynamics in Central Asia are complex, with both Pakistan and Kazakhstan playing crucial roles in energy and mineral supply chains [11] - The trade volume between China and Kazakhstan has surpassed $34 billion, significantly outpacing US-Kazakhstan trade, which highlights China's strong economic ties in the region [13] - The US's strategy appears to be focused on "resource decoupling" from China, aiming to disrupt China's energy imports and mineral supply chains [15] Group 4 - China is actively diversifying its import channels, with a 14% year-on-year increase in oil imports from countries like the UAE and Iraq, while also accelerating overseas investments in rare earths and uranium [17] - Central Asia remains a critical area for China's energy and mineral security, and any significant US advantage in this region could lead to long-term changes in the global market landscape [17]

Group 1 - The G7 summit revealed a controversial proposal by the US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to impose punitive tariffs of up to 200% on specific goods from China, which has raised concerns among European leaders about the potential economic impact on their industries, particularly the German automotive sector [1][2] - The total trade volume between China and the EU is projected to reach $785.8 billion in 2024, with Chinese goods accounting for over 60% of European industrial imports, indicating the significant reliance of Europe on Chinese products [1] - The Kiel Institute for the World Economy estimates that if the US tariffs are implemented, the EU economy could shrink by 0.4%, leading to an increase of €2,300 in annual household expenditures [1] Group 2 - The US has imposed a 50% tariff on EU steel products while pushing for Europe to increase energy purchases from the US, targeting $750 billion, which has exacerbated European dissatisfaction and concerns [2] - In response to US pressure, the EU has opted for a "minimum price agreement" with Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers instead of imposing tariffs, allowing companies like BYD and SAIC to enter the European market under specific conditions [4] - Hungary has taken proactive steps by offering $1 billion in subsidies to attract Chinese companies like BYD to establish factories, highlighting a divergence in European responses to China [6] Group 3 - The US's tariff policies have had domestic repercussions, with a 104% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles leading to zero export profits for Tesla's Shanghai factory and a significant drop in Apple's stock price [7] - The US Congressional Budget Office has warned that each American household's annual expenses could increase by $2,300 due to these tariffs, raising questions about the economic burden on consumers [7] - Former German Chancellor Merkel cautioned that the EU's approach of prioritizing values over economic interests could lead to self-destruction, emphasizing the need for a balanced strategy that protects European interests while maintaining cooperation with China [8]

Group 1 - The meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin in Alaska marks the first face-to-face encounter since September 2015, highlighting a significant diplomatic moment [2][7]. - The meeting lasted approximately 2 hours and 40 minutes, with reports indicating that discussions were progressing smoothly, although no formal agreements were reached [8][10]. - Both leaders expressed a desire to improve bilateral relations, with Putin emphasizing the need to correct the current low point in US-Russia relations, while Trump noted the potential for future productive meetings [10][11]. Group 2 - The choice of Alaska as the meeting location is historically significant, as it represents a strategic crossroads between North America and Eurasia, and is a symbol of past US-Russia relations [16][17]. - Analysts suggest that the meeting's outcome could influence global markets, with US and European stock indices showing positive movements ahead of the meeting, indicating market optimism [41][42]. - The potential for easing sanctions on Russia could have significant implications for European markets, particularly if a constructive agreement is reached [43]. Group 3 - The geopolitical context surrounding the meeting includes pressures on Ukraine, which is currently in a militarily disadvantageous position and reliant on external support [36][37]. - The meeting's implications extend to energy markets, with analysts predicting that any agreement to ease sanctions on Russian oil exports could lead to a decrease in global oil prices [44]. - The gold market has already reacted to the anticipated outcomes of the meeting, with prices declining in expectation of positive developments, although uncertainty remains if no significant progress is made [45][46].

"现在是结束战争的时候了。" 在牵动乌克兰命运的"普特会"之前，未能坐上谈判桌的泽连斯基发文写道。 而在遥远的阿拉斯加，美方摆出"大阵仗"迎接普京到访。普京和特朗普的会晤，举世瞩目。 特朗普则表示，和普京的会议非常富有成效，许多事项已达成一致，只剩下少数几个未解决的点，"双方尚未达成（协议），但（当下）有很好的机会"。 他稍晚将会给泽连斯基打电话，通报会晤情况。 当地时间8月15日，在与俄罗斯总统普京会晤后，美国总统特朗普向福克斯新闻表示，给这次会晤打10分（满分是10分）。 国际关系学院美国问题专家孙冰岩向《每日经济新闻》记者分析指出，此次会谈俄乌双方未达成协议，其根本原因是两国在俄乌停火的逻辑上没有达成一 致。 从股市的脆弱平衡、原油的供给迷雾到黄金的避险属性，各类资产的未来走向，都将被"普特会"影响。 当地时间8月15日11时许（北京时间16日3时），美国总统特朗普和俄罗斯总统普京在美国阿拉斯加州安克雷奇市埃尔门多夫-理查森联合军事基地的机场 会面。这是自2015年9月以来俄总统首次踏上美国领土。 当天上午11时许，特朗普和普京先后走下舷梯。特朗普在红毯上鼓掌迎接普京，两人握手寒暄。 普京在会晤之后的新 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it suggests that investors should approach oil and chemical investments with a mindset of weakening volatility, using the 5 - day moving average as a stop - loss point [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints - EIA and IEA hold an oversupply view of the future crude oil market, which has dampened market sentiment. The absolute value of oil prices has dropped to the lowest since June 5, and the monthly spread, taking Brent as an example, has fallen to the lowest since May. Geopolitical concerns have eased, but supply pressure remains [2]. - When raw material prices fluctuate significantly, the supply - demand relationship of chemical products becomes secondary. Most chemical products' basis has slightly increased after the sharp decline on August 14. The operating rates of polyester downstream industries and the benzene - ethylene chain have improved to some extent. Caustic soda is the strongest - performing variety on August 14 [3]. - Overall, the oil and chemical industry is expected to be in a state of weakening volatility. Each specific product has its own market characteristics and trends, and investors are advised to use a weakening volatility mindset for investment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical concerns have eased, but supply pressure remains. The meeting between Trump and Putin on August 15 will influence the future sanctions on Russian oil. OPEC + production increases have led to supply pressure, and crude oil inventories face dual pressures. The short - term outlook is volatile, and the market should pay attention to the progress of US - Russia negotiations [9]. - **Logic**: OPEC + production increases have prevented seasonal declines in crude oil inventories in the past two months. Overseas gasoline inventories are high, and future crude oil inventories will face pressure from the peak - to - decline of refinery operations and accelerated OPEC + production increases. If the meeting is optimistic about ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, oil prices will continue to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: Asphalt futures prices are weakly volatile. The main contract closed at 3472 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in different regions vary [9]. - **Logic**: EIA has significantly lowered oil price expectations. After the meeting between Russian and US leaders, the market will refocus on negative factors. The asphalt - fuel oil spread is high, driving refinery operations to return. Demand for asphalt is still not optimistic, and its current valuation is relatively high [9]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: High - sulfur fuel oil is weakly volatile, with the main contract closing at 2700 yuan/ton [9]. - **Logic**: EIA has lowered oil price expectations and raised OPEC production forecasts. The supply of heavy oil is expected to increase. China has raised the import tariff on fuel oil, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is weak. Although the cracking spread is high, the driving factors are weakening [9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices follow crude oil and fluctuate weakly, with the main contract closing at 3449 yuan/ton [11]. - **Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the weakening of crude oil. Although it is affected by the increase in diesel cracking spread, it faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic supply pressure of refined oil may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil [11]. 3.1.5 Other Chemical Products - Each chemical product has its own supply - demand situation and price trends. For example, methanol's port inventory continues to accumulate, and it fluctuates downward; urea is temporarily undisturbed and the market is weak; ethylene glycol's cost support weakens and port inventory accumulates; etc. [3] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of different varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., have different changes. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.52 with a change of 0.04 [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties also show different trends. For example, asphalt's basis is 168 with a change of 31, and the number of warehouse receipts is 73550 [39]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads between different products such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc., have different changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 220 with a change of 110 [40].

Core Insights - The global transformation driven by AI and other disruptive trends presents significant challenges for strategic asset allocation, making investment outcomes increasingly uncertain [1] - BlackRock's analysis suggests that private assets can help investors benefit from these disruptive trends, regardless of the eventual outcomes [1] Group 1: Strategic Investment Considerations - The current environment necessitates a reevaluation of strategic investments over the next five years and beyond, as traditional macroeconomic anchors like stable growth and low inflation are no longer reliable [1] - Investors can no longer assume returns will revert to historical averages, leading to unpredictable strategic outcomes [1] - BlackRock proposes multiple long-term capital market scenario assumptions to assist professional investors in adjusting strategies as the future becomes clearer [1] Group 2: Scenario Analysis - One scenario envisions AI driving positive developments, with faster-than-expected application leading to increased productivity and higher growth potential, which could alleviate inflation and boost stock market performance, particularly in the U.S. [2] - An alternative scenario considers adverse geopolitical developments, such as failed tariff negotiations and declining trust in institutions, which may require investors to seek higher compensation for financing risks associated with U.S. companies [2] Group 3: Portfolio Recommendations - Due to narrowing credit spreads, BlackRock holds a low allocation view on global investment-grade credit bonds and favors non-U.S. government bonds [3] - The firm is optimistic about emerging market equities, particularly in India, which is at the intersection of multiple disruptive trends [3] - BlackRock maintains a long-term positive outlook on private markets, emphasizing private credit and infrastructure as essential components of future financial systems, rather than mere supplements to portfolios [3]