Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In Q2 2026, the global macro - economy will move forward steadily with policy shifts, demand recovery, and risk mitigation. The gap between Europe and the US will narrow, and emerging markets will maintain relatively high growth. The Middle - East geopolitical conflicts will cause oil price fluctuations, and inflation expectations will rise. The core variables for the market are the rhythm of monetary policy, inflation path, and geopolitical evolution. The global economy is seeking re - balance in a weak recovery, with more resilience than downside risks [6][106]. - Domestic crude oil futures will enter a five - fold game stage of geopolitical premium convergence, supply restoration, demand peak - season verification, inventory re - balance, and recession expectation suppression. The extreme market in Q1 will end, and the price will return to a pattern dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, with a high - level, volatile, and slightly downward trend. The core driver will shift from "supply panic" to "real - world constraints and rhythm game" [6]. - The supply side will change from "extremely tight" in Q1 to "marginally loose" in Q2. The demand side will enter a stage of peak - season recovery, structural differentiation, and limited resilience. The inventory side will shift from a low - level tight balance to slow inventory accumulation, which will be the core constraint on the market [6]. - Overall, in Q2, the supply - demand of domestic crude oil futures will be in a loose balance pattern of supply restoration, moderate demand, inventory accumulation, and a weak macro - environment. The price of the SC main contract may maintain a high - level wide - range volatile trend, and it is difficult to reproduce the unilateral sharp rise in Q1. The main tone is high - level volatility with a slowly declining center of gravity [6]. Summary by Directory 2026 Q1 Domestic and International Crude Oil Futures Trend Review - In Q1 2026, domestic crude oil futures (SC) had an epic market with initial stable consolidation, an increase in February, an extreme pulse in March, and a high - level decline at the end of the quarter. The main contract started at about 450 yuan per barrel at the beginning of the year and soared to 838 yuan per barrel in mid - March due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, with a maximum quarterly amplitude of over 85% [11]. - The core logic of the Q1 market revolved around five main lines: geopolitical supply shock, OPEC+ production cuts, domestic demand pattern, low inventory, and macro and capital factors [12]. Fed Rate - Cut Expectations Fall, Europe and the US Economies Continue to Diverge - Since 2026, the macro - economies of Europe and the US have continued the pattern of a strong US and a weak Europe. The US economy shows strong resilience, with stable consumption and investment. The eurozone is in a weak recovery, constrained by insufficient domestic demand and structural bottlenecks [17]. - The US economy runs smoothly, with features of "steady growth, controllable inflation, and employment resilience". The eurozone's economic growth pressure is greater than that of the US. In Q2, the global macro - economy will enter a stage of narrowing divergence and mild recovery [18][20]. China's Economy Develops Steadily and Well in January - February 2026 - In early 2026, China's macro - economy showed a good start. The production supply recovered steadily, market demand continued to improve, new driving forces grew rapidly, employment and prices were generally stable [36]. - In Q2 2026, China's economy will continue the stable and upward trend, and the growth target of 4.5% - 5.0% for the whole year is more likely to be achieved [38]. OPEC+ Resumes Production Increase Measures, Supply Tightness Expectations Remain - In January - February 2026, the Middle - East crude oil market was characterized by policy - stabilized production, tight supply, and rising geopolitical tensions. OPEC+ continued to control production in Q1, and the production of core Middle - East countries was stable [54]. - In March, the Middle - East geopolitical conflict deteriorated sharply, and the supply pattern changed from "policy - controlled production" to "physical supply interruption". In Q2, OPEC+'s small - scale production increase will be implemented, but it is difficult to offset the supply interruption. Oil prices will remain high and volatile [56]. Global Crude Oil Demand in Q2 is Relatively Resilient - In March 2026, global crude oil demand was about 104.5 million barrels per day, with a year - on - year increase of about 1.2%. The demand growth was led by non - OECD countries, especially Asian emerging markets [75]. - In Q2, global crude oil demand will enter the peak - season growth stage, with a total demand of 105 - 106 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% - 2%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.3% - 1.5% [77]. The US - Iran War Persists, Middle - East Geopolitical Turmoil Intensifies - In March 2026, the Middle - East geopolitical conflict escalated to a high - intensity confrontation. It affected global security, trade, and financial markets, and led to a sharp rise in oil prices [80]. - In late March to early April, the Middle - East situation will remain tense, with high - frequency military attacks, uncertain shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and a low probability of a short - term cease - fire [84]. China's Crude Oil Imports Increase Significantly in January - February 2026 - In January - February 2026, China's domestic crude oil market showed stable domestic supply, high - growth imports, and high - level processing. The domestic crude oil futures showed a high - level volatile and premium - converging trend [91]. - In Q2, global crude oil consumption will enter the traditional off - season. With global supply being loose and geopolitical premium receding, domestic crude oil prices are likely to return to a "fundamentals - dominated, volatile and slightly downward" trend [94]. International Crude Oil Non - Commercial Net Long Positions Rise Significantly in Q1 2026 - As of March 24, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil futures were 233,620 contracts, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 168,722 contracts, or 259.98%. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures were 315,830 contracts, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 216,735 contracts, or 218.71% [101].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February 2026, domestic methanol futures showed a volatile decline due to the Spring Festival holiday, geopolitical risks, import contraction, and the pace of downstream resumption. The supply side was the core support, while the demand side was significantly affected by the holiday. The cost side had limited support for methanol. In March, methanol is expected to be treated with a bullish and volatile mindset [8]. - In the second quarter of 2026, the global macro - economy will move forward steadily with policy shifts, demand repair, and risk mitigation. The domestic methanol futures market will enter a stage of supply repair, demand verification, inventory re - balancing, and increased macro - constraints. The price is likely to fluctuate and decline at a high level [124]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2026 Q1 Methanol Futures Trend Review - In Q1 2026, domestic methanol futures showed a unilateral market of low - level volatility and a sharp pulse - like rise in March. The main contract started at around 2,200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, fluctuated narrowly from January to February, and soared in March, with a maximum quarterly increase of over 50% [13]. - The core logic of the Q1 market revolved around four main lines: import contraction, high domestic supply with limited elasticity, external - strong and internal - weak demand with rigid support, and a phased relief of inventory pressure. Macro and capital factors amplified the price fluctuations [14]. 3.2 Continued Divergence of the European and American Economies and a Decline in the Fed's Interest Rate Cut Expectations - Since 2026, the European and American macro - economies have continued the pattern of a strong US and a weak Europe. The US economy is stable with controllable inflation and resilient employment. The eurozone is in a weak recovery with greater growth pressure [17]. - In Q2, the global macro - economy will enter a stage of converging divergence and mild recovery. The US economy is likely to remain stable, and the eurozone may experience a slight recovery [20]. 3.3 Steady and Positive Development of the Domestic Economy from January to February 2026 - In early 2026, China's macro - economy showed a good start. The production supply recovered steadily, market demand continued to improve, new drivers grew rapidly, and employment and prices were generally stable [33]. - In Q2 2026, China's economy is expected to continue its steady and upward trend, with the growth target of 4.5% - 5.0% more firmly based [36]. 3.4 Slight Increase in China's Coal Imports from January to February 2026 - In early 2026, the domestic coal market showed a pattern of stable domestic supply, high - then - low imports, and weak prices. The coal price decline led to a downward shift in the cost line of methanol, causing the methanol futures to decline [52]. - In Q2, coal prices are likely to continue the "weak and volatile, central - downward" trend, which will continue to suppress the methanol futures [56]. 3.5 Spring Maintenance and Demand Differentiation Lead to a Structural Switch in the Supply Rhythm - In March 2026, domestic methanol device operation was characterized by concentrated spring maintenance, significant regional differentiation, and stable - to - decreasing production. The overall device start - up rate and production decreased [61]. - In Q2, domestic methanol production is expected to show a trend of a slight increase in April and rapid growth from May to June. The annual production is expected to reach 93 - 95 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1% - 2% [64]. 3.6 Overseas Gas Restrictions and Geopolitics Resonate, Causing a Deep Contraction in Methanol Supply - In Q1 2026, overseas methanol device operation was dominated by the Middle East, with a weak global performance. The supply tightened due to winter gas restrictions, geopolitical conflicts, and seasonal maintenance [72]. - In Q1, domestic methanol imports shrank significantly. Import contraction supported the methanol price. In Q2, overseas device operation remains uncertain, and the supply is unlikely to become quickly loose [76]. 3.7 Shrinking Profitability of Coal - to - Methanol in China in March 2026 - In February 2026, the profit of domestic methanol devices was generally weak due to high costs and weak demand. In March, the profit is expected to be marginally repaired and structurally improved [91]. 3.8 The Peak Season of Domestic Methanol Downstream Demand in Q2 - In March 2026, the domestic methanol downstream market entered the spring resumption peak season, with traditional demand fully recovering and olefin demand remaining stable. In Q2, the downstream demand will continue to recover, with traditional and olefin demand driving together [104]. 3.9 Summary - In Q2 2026, the domestic methanol futures market will enter a stage of four - fold game. The supply will be tight with domestic production increasing and imports remaining low. The demand will enter the peak - season repair stage, and the inventory will gradually decline [124]. - The methanol supply - demand will be in a tight balance, but the price will be over - valued and repaired. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level and decline in bands [126].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry - PX: Before the geopolitical situation eases, the cost support for PX is strong, and there is an expectation of significant de - stocking. Strategy: stage - low long positions and use put options for hedging; go long on the PX9 - 1 spread at a low level; widen the PXN spread when there are signs of geopolitical easing [1]. - PTA: In the second quarter, PTA has limited self - drive, and its absolute price follows the cost. Strategy: stage - low long positions and use put options for hedging; look for high - level reverse spread opportunities for the PTA9 - 1 spread [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: In the second quarter, affected by the Middle East situation, the cost support is strong, and there is a significant de - stocking expectation. Strategy: before the Middle East oil transportation recovers, EG may rise, but beware of pull - backs; lightly buy EG call options [1]. - Short - fiber: In the second quarter, short - fiber has weak self - drive and follows the raw materials. Strategy: the same as PTA for the single - side position; try to widen the spread when the PF processing fee is below 800 [1]. - Bottle - chip: In the second quarter, the supply - demand of bottle - chips is expected to be tight, and the processing fee is expected to be strong. Strategy: the same as PTA for the single - side position; the processing fee of the main contract is expected to be strong; lightly buy PR call options [1]. Urea Industry In March, the urea market showed a trend of rising first and then stabilizing. In April, the supply may decrease slightly in the first half of the month, and the demand will weaken slightly. The price may be firm in the first half of the month and may decline in the second half [2]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: In March, the price of caustic soda showed a trend of rising after a slight decline. In April, the price increase may be limited [3]. - PVC: In March, the average monthly price of PVC increased. In April, the average monthly price is expected to move up slightly, but the recovery of the real estate market and slow inventory de - stocking may limit the increase [3]. Natural Rubber Industry The supply pressure from the opening of the rubber - tapping season and the support from high overseas costs and geopolitical events will lead to wide - range fluctuations in rubber prices, with an expected operating range of 15,500 - 17,500. Pay attention to the follow - up development of the US - Iran conflict [4]. Methanol Industry The current market is driven by the supply gap caused by the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict. The methanol fundamentals have improved, and it is easy to rise and difficult to fall [5]. Crude Oil Industry The main factors affecting oil prices are geopolitical support and policy suppression. If the situation does not improve, there is still upward momentum in the short - term. In the long - term, pay attention to the impact of high oil prices on inflation, the economy, and energy substitution [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: The supply is expected to decrease, and the supply - demand is expected to improve. In the short - term, it may follow the oil price. Strategy: wait and see; narrow the EB05 - BZ05 spread when it is high [10]. - Styrene: The supply - demand is still tight. In the short - term, the absolute price follows the oil price. Strategy: the same as pure benzene [10]. LPG Industry The LPG market is affected by factors such as price changes, inventory, and upstream and downstream operating rates. The overall situation needs to be comprehensively analyzed based on various factors [11]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda Ash: In the second quarter, the price may further decline due to factors such as increased supply and weak demand. Pay attention to the support at around 1150 for SA605 [12]. - Glass: Affected by multiple factors such as weak supply - demand, high inventory, and cost expectations, pay attention to the recovery of demand and inventory de - stocking [12]. Polyolefin Industry The polyolefin market is trading around the logic of "strong cost and reduced supply". The 05 - contract inventory is expected to be low. In April, the supply and cost support will be further strengthened [13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: On March 27, most downstream polyester product prices and cash flows showed changes, such as a decline in POY, FDY, and DTY prices and cash flows [1]. - **PX - related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX, PX spot price, and PX futures prices all increased, and the PX spreads also changed [1]. - **PTA - related Prices and Spreads**: PTA spot and futures prices increased, and the PTA basis and spreads changed [1]. - **MEG - related Prices and Spreads**: MEG spot and futures prices increased, and the MEG basis and spreads changed. MEG port inventory increased, and the expected arrival decreased [1]. Urea Industry - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: The prices of urea futures contracts changed, and the spreads between contracts also changed [2]. - **Spot Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of upstream raw materials and downstream products showed different changes, and the regional and inter - market spreads also changed [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production, inventory, and operating rates of urea showed different trends, and the market price showed a trend of rising first and then stabilizing [2]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda spot and futures changed, and the spreads between contracts also changed [3]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda changed [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rates of the chlor - alkali industry and downstream industries, as well as the inventory of caustic soda and PVC, changed [3]. Natural Rubber Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot prices of natural rubber increased, and the basis and non - standard price difference changed [4]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The monthly spreads of natural rubber contracts changed [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production, operating rates, import and export volumes, and inventory of natural rubber showed different trends [4]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of methanol futures contracts and spot prices increased, and the spreads between contracts and regions changed [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of methanol enterprises, ports, and the society decreased [5]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream and downstream enterprises of methanol changed [5]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Dubai crude oils changed, and the spreads between contracts and different crude oils also changed [8]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of refined oils such as NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased, and the spreads between contracts also changed [8]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of refined oils showed different trends [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil, naphtha, and ethylene changed, and the spreads between pure benzene and raw materials also changed [10]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of styrene spot and futures increased, and the spreads between styrene and pure benzene also changed [10]. - **Downstream Cash Flows and Inventories**: The cash flows of downstream products of pure benzene and styrene changed, and the inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports also changed [10]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of the pure benzene and styrene industries and their downstream industries changed [10]. LPG Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of LPG futures contracts and spot prices changed, and the spreads between contracts and the basis also changed [11]. - **External Market Prices**: The prices of LPG external market contracts increased [11]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory and operating rates of LPG upstream and downstream changed [11]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass spot and futures changed, and the basis also changed [12]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash spot and futures changed, and the basis also changed [12]. - **Supply, Inventory, and Real Estate Data**: The supply, inventory of glass and soda ash, and real - estate data showed different trends [12]. Polyolefin Industry - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: The prices of LLDPE and PP futures contracts increased, and the spreads between contracts also changed [13]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot prices of LLDPE and PP increased, and the basis also changed [13]. - **Non - standard Prices**: The non - standard prices of PE and PP changed [13]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory and operating rates of PE and PP upstream and downstream changed [13].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is about the high - level fluctuations in crude oil positions, with a slight decline in Brent long positions [1] - In the previous reporting period, Brent long/short/net long positions changed by - 18722/+2857/ - 21579 contracts, and WTI long/short/net long positions changed by +2709/+1585/+1124 contracts [1] - Tensions in the Middle East support market sentiment, and oil prices are sensitive to geopolitical news, causing fluctuations in crude oil positions [1] - Currently, the premium of Brent over WTI is at a high level. After the sharp rise in oil prices last week, Brent's net long positions declined slightly, while WTI's net long positions increased slightly [1] Group 2: Data Monitoring - NYMEX WTI Non - commercial Positions - Long positions: 376,150 ( - 9,618) in futures and 429,790 ( - 974) in futures and options [4] - Short positions: 142,530 ( - 24,550) in futures and 104,825 ( - 13,955) in futures and options [4] - Arbitrage positions: 708,202 ( - 33,723) in futures and 1,328,817 ( - 32,834) in futures and options [4] - Net long positions: 233,620 (+14,932) in futures and 324,965 (+12,981) in futures and options [4] Commercial Positions - Long positions: 841,200 ( - 15,935) in futures and 1,099,331 ( - 3,681) in futures and options [4] - Short positions: 1,108,210 ( - 11,554) in futures and 1,463,210 ( - 752) in futures and options [4] - Net long positions: - 267,010 ( - 4,381) in futures and - 363,879 ( - 2,929) in futures and options [4] Reported Positions - Long positions: 1,925,552 ( - 59,276) in futures and 2,857,938 ( - 37,489) in futures and options [4] - Short positions: 1,958,942 ( - 69,827) in futures and 2,896,852 ( - 47,541) in futures and options [4] - Net long positions: - 33,390 (+10,551) in futures and - 38,914 (+10,052) in futures and options [4] Total Positions - 2,002,065 ( - 79,511) in futures and 2,952,171 ( - 59,595) in futures and options [4] Group 3: Data Monitoring - ICE Brent Production/Trading and Processing Positions - Long positions: 1,162,278 (+70,799) in futures and 1,414,010 (+83,177) in futures and options [4] - Short positions: 1,641,894 (+81,317) in futures and 1,955,281 (+92,521) in futures and options [4] - Net long positions: - 479,616 ( - 10,518) in futures and - 541,271 ( - 9,344) in futures and options [4] Swap Positions - Long positions: 403,304 ( - 7,859) in futures and 416,338 ( - 16,829) in futures and options [4] - Short positions: 113,993 (+4,376) in futures and 147,396 ( - 10,329) in futures and options [4] - Arbitrage positions: 220,682 (+24,092) in futures and 646,436 (+54,686) in futures and options [4] - Net long positions: 289,311 ( - 12,235) in futures and 268,942 ( - 6,500) in futures and options [4] Managed Fund Positions - Long positions: 411,964 (+14,053) in futures and 452,833 ( - 18,722) in futures and options [4] - Short positions: 96,134 (+26,927) in futures and 45,708 (+2,857) in futures and options [4] - Arbitrage positions: 239,443 ( - 7,587) in futures and 600,301 (+39,887) in futures and options [4] - Net long positions: 315,830 ( - 12,874) in futures and 407,125 ( - 21,579) in futures and options [4] Other Reported Positions - Long positions: 246,108 (+5,869) in futures and 235,925 (+490) in futures and options [4] - Short positions: 406,463 ( - 19,601) in futures and 405,584 ( - 27,552) in futures and options [4] - Arbitrage positions: 419,665 (+3,349) in futures and 1,054,509 (+41,760) in futures and options [4] - Net long positions: - 160,355 (+25,470) in futures and - 169,659 (+28,042) in futures and options [4] Reported Positions - Long positions: 3,103,444 (102,716) in futures and 4,820,352 (184,449) in futures and options [4] - Short positions: 3,138,274 (112,873) in futures and 4,855,215 (193,830) in futures and options [4] - Net long positions: - 34,830 ( - 10,157) in futures and - 34,863 ( - 9,381) in futures and options [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold and silver, the continuous conflict in the Middle East has kept crude oil prices high, leading to an increase in the market's inflation expectations for the US. Meanwhile, the inhibitory effect of high oil prices on the economy is gradually emerging. The Federal Reserve maintained its policy in March, and the market expects less than one interest rate cut this year. The US dollar index is running strongly, and gold and silver may continue to be under pressure for adjustment. As the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut changes, gold and silver may continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the regression of the gold - silver ratio [4]. - For platinum and palladium, there is limited short - term fundamental data. In the medium term, platinum is in a tight - balance pattern, while palladium is in a relatively surplus pattern. In addition, the guidance of the gold price should be noted in the medium term. This week, they may follow the weak trend of the gold price, and the platinum - palladium ratio may continue to strengthen [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: From March 20 to March 27, 2026, the prices of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium in various markets generally declined. For example, the price of London gold dropped from $4562.55 per ounce to $4504.15 per ounce, and the price of London silver dropped from $72.37 per ounce to $67.795 per ounce [8]. - **Inventory Changes**: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 340,747 ounces, COMEX silver inventory decreased by 4,397,891 ounces, NYMEX platinum inventory decreased by 25,033 ounces, and NYMEX palladium inventory remained unchanged [8]. - **Market News**: The US adjusted its sanctions policy on Venezuela's key mineral sector, allowing certain investment and operation activities. From January to February 2026, China's silver ingot exports increased by 9.2% year - on - year, and imports increased by 707.7% year - on - year. China's silver concentrate imports decreased slightly by 1.2% year - on - year. Turkey's gold reserves decreased significantly in two consecutive weeks. The gold - platinum ratio has reached about 2.4, attracting investors to turn to platinum. Russia will restrict gold exports from May 1, and some central banks may increase their gold purchases in 2026 [10][11]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Spot Basis**: Analyze the spot basis of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, with data from Wind [13][16]. - **Ratio**: Analyze the relevant ratios, but specific content is not detailed in the text [19]. - **Market Positions**: Analyze the market positions of gold and silver, as well as overseas market positions, with data from Wind [21][24]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: Analyze the futures warehouse receipts of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, with data from Wind [25][28]. - **ETF Positions**: Analyze the ETF positions of gold and silver, with data from Wind [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report The report mainly analyzes the fundamentals, market trends, and influencing factors of various commodities in multiple industries, including oil products, aromatics - polyester, coal chemical, salt chemical, and non - ferrous metals. Geopolitical factors, especially the situation between the US and Iran, have a significant impact on the market. The report also provides daily data monitoring for each sector to help investors understand market dynamics [3][6][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Products 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Logic**: Rising US - Iran military risks lead to higher oil prices. - **Fundamentals**: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran and attacks in Ukraine limit oil supply, increasing concerns about supply contraction. The resumption of shut - down production capacity is uncertain. - **Macro**: The Fed keeps interest rates unchanged, and market expectations of Fed rate cuts are rising. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains tense [3]. 3.1.2 Fuel Oil - **Logic**: Fundamental support and the bottoming of LU cracking. - **Fundamentals**: High - sulfur fuel oil has strong fundamental support despite the retracement of geopolitical premiums. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a tight supply and is expected to remain strong in the short term due to supply - side constraints and increased demand in Asia [6][7]. 3.1.3 LPG - **Logic**: Geopolitical fluctuations provide short - term support. - **Fundamentals**: Geopolitical uncertainties drive up LPG prices. Even if the war cools down, the supply shortage in the Middle East cannot be quickly resolved, and LPG prices are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [8]. 3.2 Aromatics - Polyester 3.2.1 PTA - **Logic**: Pay attention to geopolitical developments, and downstream load slightly decreases. - **Fundamentals**: The TA2605 contract closes higher. The spot market has a general trading atmosphere. PTA load increases, while polyester and related downstream loads decrease. Mainstream polyester filament manufacturers are implementing production cuts [10][11]. 3.3 Coal Chemical 3.3.1 Urea - **Logic**: Support continues, but beware of policy pressure. - **Fundamentals**: Positive overseas sentiment and domestic policy pressure offset each other. Inventory decreases, and prices are expected to remain stable. The market is expected to consolidate at a high level in the short term, with support from rigid demand and cost [12]. 3.3.2 Methanol - **Logic**: Tension in US - Iran relations leads to short - term import shortages, making prices easy to rise and difficult to fall. - **Fundamentals**: After Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices rise, boosting the energy - chemical sector. The MA2605 contract hits a new high. Port prices increase, and short - term import shortages support high - level operation [15]. 3.4 Salt Chemical 3.4.1 Soda Ash - **Logic**: Weakening rigid demand and high supply - demand pressure. - **Fundamentals**: Soda ash prices remain weakly stable. Inventory stops decreasing, and new orders slow down. The supply - demand contradiction is expected to intensify, and the possibility of inventory accumulation increases [16]. 3.4.2 Glass - **Logic**: Weak supply and demand, and continued production cuts. - **Fundamentals**: The market sentiment cools down, and the supply - demand is in a weak balance. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is mainly speculative. In the medium term, cost pressure increases, and the support from low supply may increase when demand improves [18]. 3.4.3 Caustic Soda - **Logic**: No new positive drivers. - **Fundamentals**: The spot market shows a state of 50% caustic soda not rising and 32% caustic soda rising. The supply - demand has some support, but there is expected volatility. The impact of the Strait of Hormuz blockade on supply and demand needs to be continuously monitored [19]. 3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.5.1 Copper - **Logic**: Oscillating strongly. - **Fundamentals**: Copper inventory decreases, and upstream mine disturbances and low processing fees support copper prices. The long - term demand from new energy transformation is positive [20]. 3.5.2 Gold - **Logic**: Oscillating strongly. - **Fundamentals**: Uncertainty in monetary policy and the impact of the Middle East situation on the US dollar index. If the US dollar weakens, it may drive up gold prices [22]. 3.5.3 Silver - **Logic**: Oscillating strongly. - **Fundamentals**: The market is highly influenced by Middle East news and Fed inflation expectations. The price trend is uncertain [23]. 3.6 Appendix: Daily Data Monitoring of Each Sector The appendix provides daily data monitoring for each sector, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, urea, methanol, copper, gold, and silver, covering prices, spreads, inventories, and other aspects [26][27][28].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Styrene: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Propylene: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PVC: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is significantly influenced by geopolitical factors, especially the situation in the Middle East, which affects the prices of oil and chemical products [2][3][5] - Different chemical products have different supply - demand situations, and their prices are affected by factors such as production capacity, inventory, and downstream demand [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated below the 5 - day moving average. The circulation volume in the northern mainstream propylene market increased temporarily, and downstream enterprises' resistance to receiving goods remained unchanged, with a cautious trading atmosphere [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures showed a relatively strong consolidation. For polyethylene, the cost was supported by the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and the supply side provided support. The demand side was in the spring plowing season, but the downstream's acceptance of high prices was limited. For polypropylene, the upstream refineries' ex - factory prices remained high, the middlemen actively sold goods, but the high - price transaction pressure was prominent, and the downstream's enthusiasm and willingness to start work were weak [2] Polyester - Affected by the situation between the US and Iran, oil prices were strong, and PX and PTA prices fluctuated. The overall single - side trend was dominated by energy and closely related to the Middle East situation. PTA was dragged down by inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [3] - Ethylene glycol's load decreased slightly, the port inventory increased, and the downstream recovery was slow. There was an expectation of tight supply due to the un - recovered external supply of Middle East energy chemical products [3] - Short fiber's load increased weekly, the downstream weaving's load increase slowed down, and new orders were not negotiated smoothly. The market was mainly affected by the Middle East situation and followed the raw material fluctuations [3] - Bottle chip's efficiency was good, the load increased significantly last week, the price was under pressure, and the monthly spread continued to weaken. The load decreased slightly in the new period [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The pure benzene futures contract rose significantly. The domestic pure benzene's starting load decreased, downstream consumption increased, and the port inventory continued to decrease. The import volume was expected to decrease, and the East China port was expected to continue destocking [5] - The styrene futures contract rose significantly. The sharp rise in the pure benzene price provided strong support from the cost side. The production of styrene might increase slightly, the inventory might continue to decline, and the demand side was expected to weaken slowly [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures rose strongly. The import volume decreased, the MTO start - up rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions increased, and the East China port continued to destock. The domestic methanol plant's start - up increased, the profit of inland olefin enterprises continued to rise, and the downstream plant's start - up load increased. The supply - demand situation was expected to be strong [6] - The urea futures continued to consolidate at a high level. The domestic output decreased slightly, the agricultural fertilizer demand declined, the start - up of industrial compound fertilizer and melamine plants increased, and the urea production enterprises continued to destock. The urea market was expected to fluctuate within a range [6] Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The overall supply increased slightly, the downstream procurement was poor, the inventory in sample warehouses in East and South China increased, and the downstream start - up rate increased seasonally but was still at a relatively low level compared with history. The export was expected to improve from March to April [7] - Caustic soda fluctuated weakly. The liquid caustic soda inventory increased, the chlor - alkali profit continued to rise, the industry's capacity utilization rate increased, the high - strength caustic soda had good support from export orders, and the downstream alumina production was stable, but the downstream traders' enthusiasm for purchasing decreased [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fluctuated. The industry inventory increased, the maintenance increased this week, the start - up and weekly production decreased, the rigid demand for float glass was stable, the photovoltaic glass had a serious oversupply, and there was a trend of cold repair and production reduction, which was expected to drag down the demand for soda ash [8] - Glass fluctuated. The industry continued to destock, but the intensity slowed down, the inventory pressure in the middle and upper reaches was large, and the downstream was mainly for rigid demand replenishment. The production capacity fluctuated slightly, and the glass futures price was expected to fluctuate widely within a range [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the beginning of 2026, the market has shown an overall recovery in risk appetite. However, the sudden escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict at the end of February has changed the market narrative, leading to a shift from betting on economic expansion to trading stagflation expectations [1]. - In the second quarter, the continuous fermentation of the US - Israel - Iran conflict will be the core contradiction in global macro - pricing, reversing three major consensuses formed in the market from late 2025 to early 2026. The market may evolve along the main line of "first trading stagflation, then pricing recession" [2]. - Against the backdrop of rising global stagflation risks, China's economic cycle is undergoing a structural reshaping. The second - quarter asset allocation should follow the core principle of "defensive counter - attack" [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 2: Global Macro - environment Analysis - **Core Contradiction**: The US - Israel - Iran conflict in the Middle - East in the second quarter of 2026 is the most core variable in the global market, reversing three major core expectations at the global macro - level [5][6]. - **Reversal of Three Core Expectations**: - **Fed's interest - rate cut expectation**: It will enter a cooling and observation period in the second quarter due to factors such as the inflation push from the Middle - East conflict, the uncertainty of the Wash hearing, the unmet conditions for rate cuts, and the conflict's underlying logic conflicting with rate - cut demands [7]. - **Global economic growth expectation**: The expectation of smooth global economic growth has been broken. The risk of recession has been fully priced into risk - asset prices and volatility structures [11]. - **US dollar depreciation expectation**: The expectation of a significant and trend - based decline in the US dollar index has failed. The US dollar will enter an oscillatory observation period in the second quarter of 2026 [17]. - **Underlying Logic of the US Initiating the Conflict**: - **Core political goal**: Use a controlled increase in energy prices to replace rate cuts, achieving the core political goals of capital repatriation to the US and propping up the US stock market [21]. - **Geopolitical strategy**: Strengthen energy hegemony, restructure the global supply chain, and lock in key resources [22]. - **Political appeal**: Transfer domestic contradictions and consolidate the political base [24]. - **Global power - politics layout**: Force European allies to take sides, strengthen NATO's control, and complete the global power - politics layout [25]. - **Analysis of the Conflict's Evolution Rhythm**: - **Expected rhythm**: The US may expect the conflict to intensify in March, leading to a rise in oil prices and a general adjustment of risk assets. In April - May, after achieving phased results, it will withdraw strategically, guiding oil prices to decline moderately [36]. - **Adjustment of judgment**: The time window for the end of the war is adjusted to "May - June" or "before summer", with corresponding probability weights of 30% for ending before the end of April, 40% for ending in May - June, and 30% for continuing after summer [39]. - **Analysis of Supply - shock Reversibility under Different War Durations**: - **Short - term war scenario**: If the war ends before the end of April, the energy supply shock can be mostly repaired through post - war production capacity catch - up, with the annual net loss of crude - oil supply controlled within 300 - 500 million barrels, accounting for 0.8% - 1.2% of global annual consumption [39]. - **Long - term war scenario**: If the war lasts for more than 3 months, the annual crude - oil supply loss will be in the "irreparable" range, and a significant demand destruction may occur, leading to a global economic recession [40]. - **Analysis of Asset Performance under Different War Scenarios**: - **Scenario 1**: If the war ends before the end of April, the supply shock is "pulse - type". Asset prices will quickly return to the pre - conflict logic. Crude - oil prices will decline, gold will face a short - term correction, the US Treasury yield curve will steepen, the US stock market will rebound, the US dollar index will fall, and emerging markets and the Chinese market will experience a valuation repair [54]. - **Scenario 2**: If the war lasts for more than 2 months, the supply shock will become "persistent". The market will enter stagflation trading and then switch to recession pricing. Crude - oil prices will rise, gold will enter a bull market, the US Treasury yield curve will flatten or deepen the inversion, the US stock market will face a "double - kill" of earnings and valuation, the US dollar will first rise and then fall, and emerging markets will be severely differentiated [56]. Chapter 3: Inflection - point Signals of the Global Asset - pricing Anchor - **Core Driver of the Abnormal Movement of the 2 - year US Treasury Yield**: It is driven by the "war - energy - inflation - policy expectation" vicious transmission chain triggered by the US - Israel - Iran war since February 2026, showing a typical "spontaneous interest - rate hike" [66]. - **Second - quarter Trend Judgment**: The 2 - year US Treasury yield is likely to show a trend of "inertial upward rush - high - level topping - inflection - point confirmation", with the main fluctuation range between 3.50% - 4.20%, and may challenge the previous high of 5.0% in an extreme stagflation scenario [69]. - **Core Observation Nodes and Defensive Position - layout Strategies**: - **Three key verification nodes**: April 6th is the core geopolitical window; mid - to late April is the data - verification period; May - June is the top - confirmation period [75]. - **Defensive position - layout strategies**: In the first half of April, hedge against risks by underweighting or shorting high - valuation growth stocks, optional consumer stocks, and cyclical varieties, shorting industrial metals and black - series varieties, and going long on the US dollar index. After late April, go long on 2 - year/5 - year US Treasury futures, gold, and short commodity - linked currencies, and gradually take profits on the US dollar long position. Also, configure long positions in crude oil and inflation - protected bonds to hedge against extreme scenarios [79]. Chapter 4: Domestic Macro - environment Analysis - **Three Fundamental Reshaping Trends of the Domestic Economic Cycle**: - **Economic growth smoothing**: The dominance of aggregate demand has shifted from the private sector to the government sector, and fiscal policy has become the dominant force in economic fluctuations [82]. - **Structural supply surplus**: The traditional price - transmission logic has failed, and it is difficult to start an inflation cycle due to the low utilization rate of industrial production capacity [83]. - **Coordination of monetary and fiscal policies**: Fiscal policy has become the core variable in money supply and credit expansion, suppressing the cyclical fluctuations of the economy [83]. - **Impact of the US - Israel - Iran Conflict on the Domestic Economy**: - **Analysis of two mainstream narratives**: The view that the energy - supply shock will bring substantial benefits to the Chinese economy and that PPI turning positive will reverse the deflation pattern is inaccurate. Cost - push inflation cannot reverse deflation but may intensify stagflation risks [88][93]. - **Analysis of corporate profit and inflation**: Only demand - driven inflation can improve corporate profits and break the deflation cycle, while cost - push inflation will squeeze corporate profits and strengthen the deflationary negative cycle [95][101]. - **The 15th Five - Year Plan Outline**: - **Core strategic anchor**: It is the core strategic anchor for the long - term pricing of the Chinese capital market, with a clear causal - transmission chain from policy text to industrial supply - demand to asset pricing [107]. - **Investment guidance effectiveness**: There is a clear ranking of sector heterogeneity in the guidance effectiveness of the plan. The full - cycle core investment main lines of the 15th Five - Year Plan are highly focused, and the annual core strategy is "defensive counter - attack" [108]. Chapter 5: Asset - allocation Strategy for the Second Quarter of 2026 - **Core strategy**: The market's core main line in the second quarter of 2026 is "first trading stagflation, then turning to recession pricing". The overall strategy is based on "defensive counter - attack". In the first half of April, focus on risk hedging and defensive layout. After late April, if the signal of demand contraction is confirmed, carry out a counter - attack layout around the recession - trading main line and the industrial main lines of the 15th Five - Year Plan [111].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The non - ferrous metals market is affected by macro factors and geopolitical uncertainties. The overall trend of non - ferrous metals continues to be adjusted. Different metal varieties have different trends and influencing factors, and investors need to pay attention to various factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Viewpoint Summaries - **Copper**: Affected by macro factors, copper prices first declined and then rose this week. The geopolitical situation is highly uncertain, which suppresses copper prices. However, the tight supply at the mine end, the peak maintenance season of smelters, and the good downstream demand support copper prices. It is recommended to conduct range trading between 91,500 - 98,500 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of domestic bauxite is stable, and the export restrictions on Guinea bauxite are relatively mild. The operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum has increased. The downstream demand is gradually picking up, but it is also restricted by the high - volatility of aluminum prices. The supply concerns caused by the attack on two Middle - Eastern aluminum plants over the weekend are expected to boost aluminum prices. It is recommended to make long - biased allocations [3]. - **Zinc**: Last week, zinc prices fluctuated downward. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has an impact on the market. The supply of zinc ore is tight, and the smelting plants' maintenance plans increase in the second quarter. The demand recovery is slow. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Lead**: Last week, the main contract of Shanghai lead closed at 16,555 yuan/ton, showing a fluctuating trend. The lead inventory continues to decline, and the downstream demand has recovered slightly. Affected by the geopolitical situation, the lead price will fluctuate sharply in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions moderately when the price is high [3]. - **Nickel**: Last week, Shanghai nickel fluctuated and rose. The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia is tight, and the cost of nickel price is strongly supported. However, the supply pressure of refined nickel is high, and the demand is average. The price of nickel iron is expected to be strong, and the price of stainless steel and nickel sulfate is also expected to be strong. It is recommended to go long when the price is low [4]. - **Tin**: The price of tin continued to fluctuate. The production of refined tin decreased in February, and the import of tin concentrate increased. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, and the inventory has decreased. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to conduct range trading [4]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly output of industrial silicon increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The production of polysilicon decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. The price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range - bound trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions moderately when the price is low or wait and see [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The fundamentals of polysilicon are poor, and the price has fallen below the cost. It is recommended to allocate more polysilicon moderately and wait for policy signals [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium carbonate is affected by factors such as mine shutdowns and export bans. The demand is strong, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.2 Macro - **This Week's Macro Data**: The preliminary value of the eurozone's comprehensive PMI in March was 50.5, and the US comprehensive PMI in March was 51.4. China's industrial enterprise profits from January to February increased by 15.2% year - on - year. Iran has effectively controlled the Strait of Hormuz and rejected the US cease - fire proposal [13][15][16]. - **Next Week's Macro Data Calendar**: A series of economic data such as the eurozone's consumer confidence index, CPI, and the US employment data will be released [19]. 3.3 Each Metal Variety Details - **Copper**: This week, the copper price first declined and then rose. The LME copper spot/three - month spread, Shanghai copper's inter - period spread, and COMEX institutional positions are presented. The global visible copper inventory and Shanghai copper's position and position - to - warrant ratio are also tracked [23][28][31]. - **Aluminum**: This week, the aluminum price showed a wide - range shock. The inventory of 6063 aluminum rods, port inventory of alumina and bauxite, and social inventory of electrolytic aluminum are tracked. The cost and profit of electrolytic aluminum and alumina, the forward curve of Shanghai aluminum, and the spot premium of A00 aluminum ingots are also analyzed [36][40][43]. - **Zinc**: This week, the zinc price stabilized and rebounded. The inventory of zinc in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the global visible inventory of zinc are tracked. The premium of 0 zinc ingots, the forward curve of zinc, and the prices of zinc - related products are also presented [47][49][54]. - **Lead**: This week, the lead price fluctuated downward. The inventory of lead in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the global lead inventory are tracked. The forward curve of lead, the production of primary lead, and the spot premium of lead are also analyzed [61][63][70]. - **Nickel**: This week, the nickel price continued to fluctuate and adjust. The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the global LME nickel inventory are tracked. The prices of high - nickel iron and Jinchuan nickel plates, the inventory of stainless steel, and the premium of Russian nickel are also presented [74][78][84]. - **Tin**: This week, the tin price rebounded from a low level and showed a wide - range shock. The futures closing prices of tin, the premium of Shanghai tin, the smelting profit, and the inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME are tracked [91][93][99]. - **Other Metals (Gold, Silver, etc.)**: The daily - line trend charts of gold, silver, platinum, palladium, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, alumina, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy are presented, showing different trends such as low - level rebound, wide - range shock, and downward trend [105][111][118].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, EC showed a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, with high - level oscillations and a decline. The geopolitical premium gradually converged, and the market focus returned to the supply - demand fundamentals of the off - season. In the short term, the impact of geopolitical fluctuations continued to weaken, and weak off - season demand and shipping company capacity adjustments became the core determinants. EC is likely to maintain range - bound oscillations. [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Shipping Derivatives Data - China's export container freight rates: SCFI - West US had a current value of 1703, a previous value of 1707, and a decline of 1.07%; SCFI - East US had a current value of 2817, a previous value of 2922, and a decline of 4.10%; SCFIS - West US had a current value of 2352, a previous value of 2054, and an increase of 11.70%; SCFI - Northwest Europe had a current value of 1109, a previous value of 1121, and a decline of 1.64%; the composite index SCFI had a current value of 3264, a previous value of 3109, and an increase of 4.50%; SCFI - Mediterranean had a current value of 1556, a previous value of 2784, and a decline of 44.07%; SCFIS - Northwest Europe had a current value of 2764, a previous value of 1545, and an increase of 78.90%. [1] Geopolitical Situation - Iran's President Pezeshkian had a call with the Prime Minister of Pakistan, hoping to promote dialogue and ease the situation. Iran stopped supplying 10 million cubic meters of natural gas to southern Iraq since the evening of the 27th. The Houthi armed forces launched an attack on Israel for the first time. Iran's military is formulating conditions for the end of the war and warning the US and Israel. The US is preparing for a ground operation in Iran. [2] Market Analysis - Futures: The main contract continued to decline, trading volume and open interest both contracted, the basis converged rapidly near the delivery month, and funds gradually moved to far - month contracts. [4] - Spot market: Shipping companies' previous price - holding efforts weakened, some shipping merchants lowered booking quotes, the spot freight rate center dropped slightly, market transactions were light, and shippers were hesitant. [4] - Supply - demand: European terminal demand is in the traditional off - season, export cargo volume is sluggish in rebound, downstream stocking willingness is weak. Shipping companies' capacity control strategy has loosened slightly, and effective supply has increased slightly. European ports are operating smoothly. [4] Strategy - The recommended strategy is to wait and see. [5]