12月22日，A股三大股指高开高走，创业板指涨超2%。板块上，贵金属板块大爆发，晓程科技、湖南 白银、西部黄金涨超5%领涨，山东黄金、中金黄金、四川黄金跟涨。 东吴期货认为，短期来看，黄金白银仍有上行动能。预计中长期来看，在地缘政治冲突、降息周期开 启、美元信用式微等因素下，黄金白银将维持上涨趋势。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 消息面上，12月22日，现货黄金首次站上4400美元关口，再创历史新高；白银现货价格一度攀升至69美 元/盎司上方，同样创下历史最高水平。 ...

在多重利多因素的推动下，全球贵金属价格持续上行。12月22日，黄金与白银价格双双刷新历史纪录， 铂金价格自2008年以来首次突破每盎司2000美元大关。 市场数据显示，截至22日发稿，现货黄金价格盘中已升破4400美元／盎司，突破10月20日的4381.484美 元／盎司，再创历史新高，年内涨幅超过67%；白银现货价格一度攀升至69美元／盎司上方，同样创下 历史最高水平，年内涨幅超过140%；铂金价格近期接连突破1700、1800和1900美元整数大关，并自 2008年以来首度站上每盎司2000美元，年内涨幅超127%；铂金的"兄弟金属"钯金，最高价触及每盎司 1839美元，年内涨幅已超96%。 多位分析师对新华财经表示，中长期来看，在地缘政治冲突、美联储降息周期开启、美元信用式微等因 素综合作用下，黄金白银价格预计将维持上涨趋势。后续重点关注美联储政策表态、下一届美联储主席 候选人情况等变化。 第四，黄金供需紧平衡时有助于价格上涨，2025年全球和国内投资需求大幅增加，三季度投资需求继续 保持旺盛，央行购金和投资需求有望弥补首饰需求下降。 第五，地缘政治格局呈现"局部缓和与多点升温交织"特征，避险情绪小幅升 ...

来源：新浪港股 麦格理发表研究报告指，招金矿业持续扩大其黄金矿场组合，透过勘探实现有机增长。近期行业活动披 露，公司的关键项目海域金矿正处于建设阶段，预计将于2027年底至2028年初投产。另外，基于市场对 地缘政治冲突、贸易摩擦以及美国国债可持续性的忧虑，该行对金价持正面看法。而招金矿业作为低成 本的纯黄金企业，是金价上升的主要受惠者。麦格理将招金矿业2025至2027年净利润预测分别上调 10%、74%及50%，至36.17亿、49.91亿及42.93亿元，以反映预期金价较高及成本更高；目标价42港 元，维持"跑赢大市"评级。 招金矿业（01818）盘中涨超5%，截至发稿，股价上涨4.34%，现报31.76港元，成交额2.26亿港元。 ...

中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投资实 物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金股票ETF（517400）。 南京证券指出，黄金具有商品、货币、金融投资三重属性。其货币属性与美元指数关联紧密，金融投资 属性体现为实际利率是黄金的持有成本，同时具备避险和抗通胀特性。美联储降息周期下，美债实际利 率下行将降低黄金投资机会成本，叠加美国经济走软预期增强黄金避险需求，历史复盘显示2019年降息 后黄金价格涨幅超40%，预计本轮降息空间更大，黄金价格震荡向上概率较高。此外，地缘政治冲突推 动黄金避险需求，全球央行持续净购金（中国黄金储备连续13个月增加）支撑黄金中枢价格，当前金价 已站稳4000美元/盎司上方，在避险情绪未平息前易涨难跌。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分 ...

特朗普宣布对委内瑞拉实施全面海上封锁，部署所谓"南美史上最大规模舰队"阻止受制裁油轮进出该国。这一强硬举措立即推动油 价上涨，国际油价应声上涨，美国WTI原油期货涨幅一度达到1.7%，布伦特原油期货涨幅一度超过1.5%。 （美国WTI原油30分钟走势图） （布伦特原油30分钟走势图） 据新华社报道，特朗普于12月16日在社交媒体上宣布，已下令对所有进出委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮实施"全面彻底的封锁"。此外，据 媒体报道，特朗普强调，委内瑞拉目前已被"南美历史上最大的舰队"完全包围，且威胁称封锁规模还将继续扩大。 特朗普升级对委施压策略 特朗普此次行动代表着对马杜罗政府压力的显著升级。 新华社报道指出，特朗普同时将马杜罗政府指定为"外国恐怖组织"。 另外，据媒体报道，特朗普在社交媒体上称，委内瑞拉被"南美史上最大规模舰队"完全包围，并要求该国归还所谓被"盗取"的石 油、土地和其他资产。 上周，美国在委内瑞拉海岸扣押了一艘名为"The Skipper"的受制裁油轮。扣押行动发生后，三艘原本驶向委内瑞拉的超级油轮调头 离开，本周又有第四艘油轮改变航线。 石油成为经济制裁核心目标 通过针对石油行业，特朗普正在打击委内瑞拉经 ...

宏观：黄金定价的终极属性是什么？20251212 Q&A 黄金市场的历史周期可以分为三个主要阶段，每个阶段都有不同的驱动因素。 第一轮黄金上涨周期始于 2001 年，结束于 2012 年，历时 12 年，涨幅接近 6 倍。这一阶段的主要驱动因素是全球风险事件频发和流动性长期宽松。2001 年的美国经济衰退、911 恐怖袭击事件，以及随后伊拉克战争和金融危机等一 系列事件推动了避险情绪升温，黄金价格不断上涨。此外，黄金 ETF 的诞生也 显著加强了黄金的流动性和投资功能。 第二轮黄金牛市始于次贷危机和欧债危 机爆发期间。2007 年 8 月 9 日法国巴黎银行宣布冻结旗下 3 只对美国次级贷 款存在敞口的投资基金，引发次贷危机；2008 年 9 月雷曼兄弟破产标志着金 融危机全面升级。在此期间，美联储推出零利率政策和多轮量化宽松政策，使 得流动性泛滥、实际利率下行，推动金价快速上涨。到 2011 年三季度末，金 价达到 1,900 美元每盎司高点。 第三轮黄金牛市从 2018 年至今，这一阶段主 要受中美贸易摩擦、去美元化趋势以及地缘政治冲突等因素驱动。特朗普政府 对中国加征关税引发贸易摩擦，美国政策不确定性上 ...

Group 1 - The global stock market has shown strong performance in 2025, driven by the AI investment boom and loose monetary policies, with many indices, including the US stock market, reaching historical highs [1] - Billionaires are optimistic about investment opportunities in China and Western Europe, with 40% of respondents favoring Western Europe for the next 12 months, up from 18% in 2024, and 34% favoring the Greater China market, significantly higher than 11% last year [5] - Over a five-year outlook, the percentage of respondents optimistic about the Greater China market rose from 31% in 2024 to 48% in 2025 [6] Group 2 - There has been a significant decline in optimism regarding the North American market, with only 63% of billionaires favoring it in 2025, down from 80% in 2024, primarily due to concerns over multiple risk factors, particularly tariffs [9] - 66% of respondents identified tariffs as the most likely negative factor affecting the market environment in the next 12 months, followed by geopolitical conflicts (63%), policy uncertainty (59%), and higher inflation (44%) [9] - Billionaires plan to increase investments in private equity, hedge funds, developed market equities, and emerging market equities, with 49% intending to increase exposure to private equity in the next 12 months, followed by hedge funds (43%), developed market equities (43%), and emerging market equities (42%) [11]

上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 在即将过去的2025年，得益于AI投资热潮以及宽松货币政策等因素，全球股市整体表现强 劲，呈现出罕见的同步上涨态势，包括美股为在内的多国股指创下历史新高。 2026年最好的投资机会在哪里？在这一点上，掌控着庞大资金且比普通人拥有更敏锐投资嗅 觉的亿万富豪们的看法，或许可以成为风向标。 那么，亿万富豪们眼下将目光瞄向了何处？瑞银的一份最新报告给出了答案。 瑞银针对其亿万富豪客户的最新年度调查涵盖了多个主题，包括他们计划在未来12个月和五 年内将资金投向何处。 亿万富豪们投资情绪的上述转向，源于对多重风险因素的担忧，其中关税问题首当其冲。 66%的受访者认为，关税是"未来12个月最可能对市场环境造成负面影响"的因素之一；紧随 其后的是潜在重大地缘政治冲突（63%）、政策不确定性（59%）以及更高的通胀 （44%）。 瑞银的一位欧洲客户直言："尽管北美市场仍具深度与创新力，但它已不再是我们眼中的头号 投资目的地。对我们而言，投资过度集中于单一地区会催生风险，分散布局才能捕捉更优机 遇。" 放眼全球，亿万富豪们对两个地区投资前 ...

Core Insights - The global stock market has shown strong performance in 2025, driven by the AI investment boom and loose monetary policies, with many indices, including the US stock market, reaching historical highs [1] Group 1: Investment Sentiment - Billionaires are increasingly optimistic about investment opportunities in China and Western Europe, with 40% of respondents favoring Western Europe for the next 12 months, up from 18% in 2024 [1] - Similarly, 34% of billionaires see potential in the Greater China market for the next 12 months, a significant increase from 11% in the previous year [1] - Over a five-year horizon, the outlook for Greater China has also improved, with the percentage of respondents optimistic rising from 31% in 2024 to 48% in 2025 [1] Group 2: North America Market Sentiment - In contrast, optimism towards the North American market has sharply declined, with only 63% of billionaires favoring it in 2025, down from 80% in 2024 [4] - Concerns over multiple risk factors, particularly tariffs, are driving this shift, with 66% of respondents identifying tariffs as a major potential negative impact on the market environment [4] - Other significant concerns include geopolitical conflicts (63%), policy uncertainty (59%), and higher inflation (44%) [4] Group 3: Investment Areas - Billionaires plan to increase their exposure to private equity, with 49% indicating plans to invest more in this area over the next 12 months [5] - Other areas of interest include hedge funds (43%), developed market equities (43%), and emerging market equities (42%) [5] - The survey indicates a strong preference for public and private equity investments among billionaires, reflecting a strategic shift in their investment focus [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, with an unexpectedly dovish stance, which is expected to improve global liquidity in the short - term and boost risk assets. A - shares may have short - term upward opportunities, but high - level chasing should be treated with caution [3]. - The pressure on the bond market to decline may have passed its peak, and the bond futures may return to a sideways trend in the short - term. There is a possibility of a phased rebound in the bond market later, and investors are advised to wait and see for now [3]. - Precious metals have increased fluctuations, and short - term gold prices need to build momentum to break the sideways pattern. Silver may face increased trading congestion, and investors should be cautious about chasing high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Categories 3.1 Daily Selected Views - **Bullish**: Tin (SN2601) is expected to be sideways with an upward bias; Methanol (MA2601) and rebar (rb2501) are expected to be sideways with an upward bias at the bottom [3]. - **Bearish**: Corn (C2601) is expected to be sideways with a downward bias [3]. 3.2 All - Variety Daily Reviews 3.2.1 Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures**: Due to the Fed's interest rate cut, short - term global liquidity expectations will improve, and A - shares have short - term upward opportunities. It is recommended to go long intraday but be cautious about high - level chasing, and consider using protective options or bull spread strategies [3]. - **Bond Futures**: The pressure on the bond market to decline may have passed, and bond futures may return to a sideways trend. It is recommended to wait and see for now and pay attention to the outcome of the Central Economic Work Conference. Positive arbitrage opportunities between TL and TF2603 contracts can be gradually considered [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are fluctuating in the range of $4150 - 4260 and need to build momentum to break the sideways pattern. Silver may face increased trading congestion after a rapid rise. It is recommended to use a virtual option double - selling strategy for gold and be cautious about chasing high prices for silver [3]. 3.2.2 Industrial Products - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel prices have stopped falling and are expected to continue to move sideways. Iron ore is expected to weaken from its high - level sideways movement, and coking coal and coke are also expected to be bearish [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: For copper, long - term long positions can be held. Aluminum prices are affected by the Fed's interest rate decision, and it is recommended to take profits for previous long positions and then go long again. For other non - ferrous metals, different trading strategies are provided according to their respective fundamentals [3]. - **New Energy and Chemicals**: Polysilicon futures are rising, while industrial silicon prices are falling. PX has support at low levels, while PTA and short - fiber are expected to be weak in the short - term. Different trading strategies are recommended for various chemical products based on their supply - demand situations [3]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Corn is expected to be sideways with a downward bias, while soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to move in a narrow range. Palm oil has broken through support levels, and its main contract is testing the support at 8500 [3]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The spot price of live pigs is expected to be sideways with an upward bias in the short - term due to pickling demand [3]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Sugar is expected to move sideways at the bottom, cotton is expected to be sideways with an upward bias, and eggs are expected to be sideways with a downward bias [3].