期货市场交易指引 2026 年 03 月 02 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 空 5 多 9 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 短期区间交易，关注 98000-106000 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议逢低适度持多 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 偏强震荡 | | ◆白银： | 偏强震荡 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 低位震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 逢高做空 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 逢低多配不追高 | | ◆橡胶： | 逢低多配不追高 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏强震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业 ...

点击图片▲立即查看 " 伊朗是一个很大的国家，我们预计对伊朗的军事行动可能持续 4 周。 文 /巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 随着一艘试图通过霍尔木兹海峡的油轮被击中沉没，美以对伊朗战事打响近 48 小时后，人们最担心的事情还是发生了。 周六，春节复工第五天，美以再次军事袭击伊朗，虽然人们对此早有预期，但无论从心理还是市场，依然造成了巨大冲击。 美国五角大楼中央司令部周日发布的一份情况说明书称，美军周末期间袭击了伊朗境内的1000多个目标，按BBC早先的报道， 包括伊朗最高领袖 哈梅内伊在内，共约40名伊朗官员身死。 此前，特朗普宣称， 美国目标是通过消除伊朗政权的迫在眉睫的威胁，保卫美国人民，并实现对伊朗政权的更迭。 然而形势还在恶化。 对全球经济而言，首先是重要的 "能源生命线"被彻底切断——北京时间 3 月 1 日凌晨 1 点 30 分，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡， 并通过袭击经过的船只，表达了强硬态度。 消息宣布和击沉油轮以后，至少有三艘往返卡塔尔的液化天然气运输船已暂停航行，以避开霍尔木兹海峡， 全球三分之一的海运石油和五分之一 的液化天然气运输就此 停摆。 " —— 特朗普 试图通 ...

点击注册小程序 报告摘要 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 发布日期：2026-03-01 本订阅号是光大证券股份有限公司研究所（以下简称"光大证券研究所"）依法设立、独立运营的官方唯一订阅号。其他任 何以光大证券研究所名义注册的、或含有"光大证券研究"、与光大证券研究所品牌名称等相关信息的订阅号均不是光大证 券研究所的官方订阅号。 坚守长期主义，"三桶油"、油服、油运投资价值凸显 作为上游油气领域央企巨头，"三桶油"和油服在油价上行期的业绩弹性凸显。2026年，"三桶油"将继续维 持高资本开支，不断加强天然气市场开拓，加快中下游炼化业务转型，有望实现穿越油价周期的长期成 长。油服方面，国内高额上游资本开支投入将有力保障上游产储量的增长，使得油服企业充分受益，叠加 海外业务逐渐进入业绩 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry**: Geopolitical tensions, particularly the US-Iran conflict, are impacting global markets, especially commodities and inflation risks. [1][2] - **Key Focus**: The shift in US policy towards domestic issues due to midterm election pressures may lead to external conflicts being used to alleviate internal political and economic pressures. [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - **Oil Price Impact**: Rising oil prices are expected to elevate the Producer Price Index (PPI) and subsequently the Consumer Price Index (CPI), benefiting consumer sectors with pricing power. [1][2] - **Market Transmission Pathway**: The main transmission pathway of the US-Iran conflict is identified as "conflict escalation → oil prices → global inflation → interest rates → stock valuations." The baseline assumption is that while the conflict may persist, oil prices will remain manageable, limiting disturbances to the A-share market. [1][2] - **Military Investment Opportunities**: The military sector is viewed as an "event-driven" investment opportunity, focusing on high-end military trade, particularly in advanced fighter jets and strategic transport aircraft. [1][5][6] Additional Important Insights - **Commodity Rotation**: Historical patterns indicate a rotation from gold to copper and oil, with current trends showing increases in precious metals and industrial metals. If this rotation extends to oil, input inflation risks will rise significantly. [3][4] - **Coal Market Dynamics**: The coal market is entering a phase of value reassessment due to supply disruptions and policy shifts in Indonesia, with potential for improved profitability in coal chemical projects when oil prices exceed $50 per barrel. [2][17][18] - **Geopolitical Conflict and Metal Pricing**: The US-Iran conflict is reinforcing the narrative that geopolitical tensions and de-globalization are fundamentally altering metal pricing dynamics, particularly for precious and strategic metals. [11][12] Sector-Specific Insights - **Oil and Gas Sector**: Short-term beneficiaries include upstream oil and gas assets, with a focus on small to mid-cap exploration companies. The midstream sector is expected to manage cost pressures better than anticipated. [9][10] - **Chemical Industry**: Companies like Wanhua Chemical are positioned to benefit from rising prices in MDI and TDI, with significant production capacities in the Middle East. [16] - **Electric Utilities**: The geopolitical conflict is likely to provide indirect benefits to defensive utility sectors, particularly hydropower, with clear safety margins emerging in certain sub-sectors. [20][21] Investment Recommendations - **Resource and Transportation**: Focus on resource sectors, shipping, and precious metals, particularly gold, as potential beneficiaries of the current geopolitical climate. [4][22] - **Military and Defense**: Emphasize investments in military technology and equipment manufacturers, particularly those involved in high-end military exports. [5][6] - **Coal and Chemical Stocks**: Monitor companies like Yanzhou Coal and China Chemical for potential upside due to supply chain disruptions and rising commodity prices. [19][16] Conclusion The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the US-Iran conflict, are expected to have significant implications for various sectors, including oil, coal, chemicals, and military industries. Investors are advised to focus on sectors that can leverage these dynamics for potential growth and profitability.

Core Viewpoint - The escalating conflict in the Middle East, particularly the U.S. and Israel's military actions against Iran, raises concerns about regional and global instability, with potential implications for oil production and geopolitical dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Military Actions and Objectives - The U.S. and Israel conducted joint strikes on Iran, resulting in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which may signal the beginning of a sustained military campaign aimed at regime change [2]. - President Trump emphasized the goal of eliminating threats from the Iranian regime, indicating a strategic shift towards asserting dominance in a critical oil-producing region [2]. - Analysts suggest that the scale of the strikes indicates a broader military objective targeting Iran's command and control structures, rather than just its nuclear capabilities [3][4]. Group 2: Potential Escalation and Regional Impact - Experts warn that the military conflict could escalate rapidly, with Iran likely to retaliate using various means, including missile strikes on U.S. and Israeli assets in the region [3][4]. - The conflict has already extended to other Gulf states, with Iranian missiles targeting countries such as the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, which host U.S. military assets [5]. - The long-standing diplomatic efforts between Iran and Gulf states may be jeopardized, indicating a shift in regional relations [5].

周末以色列对伊朗空袭消息传出后，比特币等数字资产在周末出现显著下挫，折射出市场对突发地缘事件的初步规避情绪。 随着伊朗官方媒体正式确认哈梅内伊遇害，市场情绪迅速反转，主要数字资产涨幅较低点大幅扩大。 美国与以色列联合发动大规模军事打击，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊遇袭身亡，地缘政治格局遭遇数十年来最剧烈冲击。 在周末唯一持续开盘的加密货币市场， 价格从急跌到急涨完成"V形"反转，折射出投资者对这场冲突走向的深度分歧 ——而分歧的核心，将在周一全球市场开 盘时得到检验。 据央视新闻报道，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊在2月28日上午遇袭身亡。以色列方面称，哈梅内伊及其高级助手，包括伊朗国防委员会秘书阿里·沙姆哈尼和伊朗伊 斯兰革命卫队总司令穆罕默德·帕克普尔，均在空袭中丧生。 加密货币市场率先反映情绪变化——数字资产在以色列空袭伊朗消息传出后急剧下挫，但随着伊朗官方媒体证实哈梅内伊遇害，市场迅速逆转大涨。 历史经验显示， 只要市场判断打击是战术性且有限的 ，初期恐慌便会快速消化，比特币已经选择相信快速结束模式。 分析认为， 周一市场走向取决于几个核心变量 ：冲突能否被迅速控制、原油供应是否遭受实质冲击，以及哈梅内伊身后的政治真空 ...

2026 年 3 月 1 日 行业研究 中东地缘局势升级，油气、油服、油运长期价值凸显 ——石油化工行业周报第 440 期（20260223—20260301） 要点 美以对伊朗发动空袭，中东地缘政治局势全面升级。 2 月 28 日，以色列与美 国对伊朗首都德黑兰发动空袭。截至 3 月 1 日，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊在空 袭中身亡，伊朗革命卫队称对以色列和美国军事基地的"最猛烈"进攻行动即 将开始，同时宣布，作为石油和天然气运输重要航道的霍尔木兹海峡已不再安 全，因此于 2 月 28 日对船只关闭。国际油轮交通监测系统实时数据显示，霍 尔木兹海峡周边海域油轮航行速度普遍降至零，大量船只停航避险。中东地缘 政治冲突全面升级。 油价快速上行，市场担忧伊核协议谈判中断、原油运输风险。截至 2 月 27 日， 布伦特、WTI 原油分别报收 73.21、67.29 美元/桶，较年初分别上涨 20.2%、 17.2%。本轮中东地缘冲突对原油市场的影响包括：（1）伊核谈判前景受到 重大影响，对伊朗石油生产销售的制裁可能加剧。（2）地缘冲突加剧导致原 油运输风险加剧，霍尔木兹海峡遭到封锁威胁全球原油运输安全。历史上中东 地缘冲 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 中东局势大变！ 美国联手对伊朗发动袭击！ 2026年2月的最后一天，美国以"史诗怒火"为名，联合以色列向伊朗发起空袭。随后，伊朗发射导弹反击以色列和中东多国的美国军事设施，宣称 报复行动"没有任何红线"。 这是美以在9个月内再袭伊朗，也是特朗普政府在不到两个月内第二次对他国发动军事打击。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间3月1日，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊遇袭身亡。随后，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队称，伊朗武装部队"最猛烈的进攻行动"即将开 始，目标是以色列和美国的基地。 新华网报道称，媒体和专家认为，当前美以行动规模、公布行动目标及明确阶段计划的特点显示，这次打击更像是预谋已久的实战打击，而不是"表 演式闪电战"。而从伊朗反应看，美以行动可能引发更长时间和更大范围的军事对抗或报复循环。 02 霍尔木兹海峡已事实上停航 伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊遇袭身亡，哈梅内伊女儿、女婿、孙女、儿媳在袭击中身亡，伊朗防长等约40名官员在袭击中死亡！ 另外，伊朗宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡，这是伊朗的杀手锏，它是全球油价的超级定价锚，占了全球海运石油贸易的30%。 同时，伊朗将展开最猛烈的进攻，目标是以色列和美军基地；美方也 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent international gold prices have shown a significant rebound, breaking through key resistance levels and reflecting strong performance driven by geopolitical tensions, adjustments in U.S. tariff policies, and Federal Reserve monetary policy statements [1] Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policy Adjustments - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled on February 20 that the large-scale tariff policy implemented by the Trump administration was illegal, leading to the cessation of these tariffs starting February 24, 2026 [2] - In response, Trump announced an executive order to impose an additional 10% tariff on all goods imported into the U.S. for 150 days, later increasing it to 15%, maintaining existing tariffs amid rising trade policy uncertainty [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - The ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have become a key variable affecting gold prices, with recent talks showing mixed progress and leading to fluctuations in market sentiment [2] - Following a significant drop in gold prices below $4,900 per ounce, renewed tensions and military deployments by the U.S. in the Middle East have driven gold prices back above $5,000 per ounce, with further escalation possible depending on the outcome of negotiations [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy - Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials have been hawkish, indicating that interest rates may remain unchanged for an extended period due to improving labor market data and persistent inflation risks [3] - The Fed's stance has supported a rebound in the U.S. dollar, indirectly influencing precious metal prices [3] Group 4: Market Impact and Future Focus - Gold and silver have recently strengthened due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs and risks of U.S. military action against Iran, recovering approximately half and one-third of their declines from late January, respectively [4] - The market is expected to maintain a volatile but less intense trading range, with ongoing geopolitical tensions providing long-term support for precious metals [4] - Future attention should be on the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations, as a successful agreement could lead to a sudden market shift, while failure could push gold prices towards historical highs [4]

全球最大的衍生品交易所芝商所集团于周三遭遇系统故障，其旗舰金属市场交易暂停一个半小时。 这家总部位于芝加哥的交易所运营商旗下的环球电子交易系统（Globex）金属市场，是美国黄金主力期 货合约的交易场所，该市场于当地时间中午 12 点 15 分暂停交易，直至下午 1 点 45 分恢复。此外，其 天然气期货与期权市场也出现了约 35 分钟的交易中断。 CME同时宣布，所有当日委托单及标注为当日日期的GTD委托单将被全部取消，仅已确认的GTC委托 单继续有效挂单。 故障发生后，COMEX 黄金交易数据出现"缺失"。 近年来，芝商所集团已发生数次系统故障，均对投资者的交易操作造成了影响。 去年 11 月，芝商所的股票、债券、外汇及大宗商品交易市场曾出现近 10 小时的系统宕机，彼时该公司 将故障原因归咎于芝加哥总部附近一处数据中心的 "制冷问题"。 芝商所方面表示，本次周三的故障事件系 "技术问题" 导致。 此次系统故障发生之际，恰逢全球市场处于剧烈波动期。 今年早些时候，受地缘政治冲突影响，叠加此前大涨的人工智能概念股出现回调，交易者纷纷寻求避 险，推动黄金、白银价格创下历史新高。 上个马年沪指涨近60%！新年新 ...