Core Viewpoint - The methanol market is experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions, particularly related to Iran, which has led to concerns about supply disruptions. However, recent developments indicate a potential easing of these tensions, which may impact supply expectations and pricing dynamics in the near term [1][5][8]. Supply Dynamics - Methanol prices have recently corrected after a spike driven by fears of supply chain disruptions in Iran due to escalating conflicts. The price settled at 2391 yuan/ton, down 0.95% [1]. - As of June 19, domestic methanol production facilities operated at 77.44% capacity, a 2.30 percentage point increase from the previous period and a 6.61 percentage point increase year-on-year. High profits from coal-to-methanol production are encouraging operational activity [1]. - Reports indicate that Iran's methanol production facilities may restart operations following a proposed ceasefire agreement, which could significantly alter supply expectations for July imports to China [1][4]. Demand Factors - The average operating rate of domestic coal-to-olefins (MTO) facilities is at 85.53%, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.32 percentage points. Traditional downstream sectors like formaldehyde and acetic acid are entering a seasonal downturn, leading to a focus on essential procurement [2]. - The methanol port inventory in China reached 670,500 tons as of June 25, an increase of 84,100 tons from the previous period, indicating a significant accumulation of stock [2]. Market Outlook - According to various institutions, the methanol market is expected to experience high volatility, with prices likely to oscillate within a high range due to the interplay of geopolitical factors and domestic supply-demand dynamics. Key focus areas include the pace of Iranian facility restarts and the actual growth in import volumes [4][5][6]. - The market sentiment is influenced by the easing of geopolitical risks, which has led to a correction in energy prices and a potential weakening of domestic methanol futures [5][6]. - The overall market logic is primarily driven by macroeconomic conditions, with ongoing uncertainties in international relations affecting trading strategies [7][8].

油脂：地缘风险溢价蒸发 油脂大幅回落 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 表 1：油脂期货日度数据监测 | | | | | 日 | 数 据 追 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 車位 | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期高 | DCE豆油主力 | 6月24日 | 元/呼 | 7950.00 | 8126.00 | -176.00 | -2.17% | | | DCE棕榈油主力 | 6月24日 | 元/吨 | 8326.00 | 8520.00 | -194.00 | -2.28% | | | CZCE菜籽油主力 | 6月24日 | 元/吨 | 9572.00 | 9721.00 | -149.00 | -1.53% | | | CBOT大豆主力 | 6月23日 | 美分/蒲式耳 | 1046.50 | 1060.50 | -14.00 | -1.32% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 6月23日 | 美分/磅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran may serve as a significant turning point, leading to a reduction in global market risk aversion and a subsequent rise in asset prices, particularly in global stock markets while oil and gold prices decline [1][2]. Direct Impact - The geopolitical risk premium in oil prices has been eliminated, resulting in a decrease in international oil prices due to reduced fears of supply disruptions from escalating conflicts in the Middle East [2]. - As risk aversion diminishes, funds are flowing back from safe-haven assets like gold into higher-growth risk assets such as global equities, indicating a lower level of market uncertainty [2]. Transmission Effects - The easing of tensions in the Middle East may trigger a transmission chain in the global macroeconomic landscape [3]. - The transmission chain can be summarized as follows: 1. Easing Middle East tensions → Oil price decline [4] 2. Oil price decline → Reduced inflationary pressures in the U.S., as oil prices significantly influence U.S. inflation metrics [5]. 3. Reduced inflation → Increased likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as persistent inflation has been a barrier to rate cuts [6]. 4. Enhanced rate cut expectations → Improved global liquidity, particularly benefiting emerging markets, with Hong Kong stocks potentially attracting more international capital due to their low valuation [6]. Market Opportunities - In light of improved liquidity and rising risk appetite, Hong Kong stocks are expected to enter a significant "allocation window" [6]. - The technology sector in Hong Kong, which includes leading companies in internet, consumer electronics, and biotechnology, is likely to benefit from the anticipated global liquidity improvement and represents higher growth potential [6][8]. - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index has shown strong growth, with a total return of 227% since the end of 2014, indicating its potential as a tool for capturing structural opportunities in the Hong Kong technology sector [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical conflict between Israel and Iran has cooled down, and the market risk appetite has rebounded. However, the impact of external factors on the A-share market is limited, and the shock center of the stock index is expected to gradually move up. With the approaching of the interim report season, IF and IH with higher performance certainty may be relatively strong, while IC and IM face increased performance verification pressure [1]. - The bond market sentiment is optimistic, but the high valuation restricts the upward space. The short - term policy interest rate is difficult to cut [1]. - The geopolitical risk premium of precious metals has declined, and the prices are oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options on gold and silver 08 contracts [1][4]. - The macro - uncertainty persists, and copper prices continue to oscillate. The supply of copper is tight, but the overseas macro situation is uncertain, and the real demand is cautious [4]. - The cost of aluminum is disturbed, and the inventory is at a low level. The supply of alumina is in excess, but the downward drive may slow down. The supply - demand of aluminum is intertwined, and the low inventory provides support [4]. - The fundamentals of nickel are weak, and the price continues to decline. The supply of the nickel industry chain is in excess, but the price of nickel ore is firm. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling call options [4]. - The supply of lithium carbonate is loose, and the price is under pressure. The demand for lithium is weak, while the supply is increasing, and the inventory of smelters is rising [4][6]. - The high inventory of polysilicon suppresses the rebound. The supply - demand pattern of the polysilicon market is gradually becoming looser. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling call options [6]. - The geopolitical risk premium of steel has declined, and the prices are close to the upper limit of the range. The fundamentals of steel are not significantly changed, and the upward space is limited. It is recommended to hold the strategies of selling out - of - the - money call and put options on rebar [6]. - Coke has completed four rounds of price cuts, and the spot price is approaching the bottom while the futures price rebounds first. The long - term supply of coking coal is in excess, but the short - term supply tightens. It is recommended that cautious investors close their short positions in coking coal and wait and see for new orders [8]. - The glass has stronger support than soda ash. The supply of soda ash is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to hold short positions. The performance of float glass is also weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions and some arbitrage strategies [8]. - The geopolitical premium of crude oil may further decline. It is recommended to close the long - call option positions [8]. - The import volume of methanol may not decrease significantly, and the futures price may face a correction. The positive impact of the Middle - East conflict is fading [10]. - The demand for polyolefins is poor, and the price is expected to decline. The demand for polyolefins is weak, and the crude oil premium is retreating [10]. - The inventory of the cotton industry is decreasing, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy. The supply of cotton is expected to be tight, and the short - term fundamentals have no obvious negative drive [10]. - The demand for rubber is not fulfilled, and the port inventory is increasing. The supply of rubber is increasing while the demand is decreasing, and the price is under pressure [10]. Summary by Categories Stock Index - Geopolitical conflict cools down, market risk appetite rebounds, A - share oscillates upward on Monday, small and micro - cap indexes strengthen, and the trading volume of the two markets slightly rebounds to 1.15 trillion yuan [1]. - The performance of IF and IH may be relatively strong during the interim report season, while IC and IM face performance verification pressure [1]. Treasury Bond - The bond market sentiment is optimistic due to loose liquidity, but the high valuation and the difficulty of short - term policy interest rate cuts restrict the upward space [1]. Precious Metals - Geopolitical risk premium declines, gold and silver prices oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to hold the strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options on gold and silver 08 contracts [1][4]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The supply is tight, but the overseas macro situation is uncertain, and the real demand is cautious. Copper prices continue to oscillate in the short term [4]. - Aluminum: The cost is disturbed, and the inventory is low. The supply of alumina is in excess, but the downward drive may slow down. The supply - demand of aluminum is intertwined, and the low inventory provides support [4]. - Nickel: The fundamentals are weak, the supply of the industry chain is in excess, but the price of nickel ore is firm. It is recommended to hold the strategy of selling call options [4]. Energy and Chemicals - Polypropylene (PP): The event - driven positive factors fade, and the supply is in excess. It is recommended to open new short positions in PP2509 [2]. - Polysilicon: The high inventory suppresses the rebound. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling call options on polysilicon PS2508 - C - 34500 [2][6]. - Aluminum: The inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to hold the previous long positions in AL2508 [2]. - Crude Oil: The geopolitical premium may further decline. It is recommended to close the long - call option positions [8]. - Methanol: The import volume may not decrease significantly, and the futures price may face a correction [10]. - Polyolefins: The demand is poor, and the price is expected to decline [10]. Steel and Iron - Rebar: The geopolitical risk premium declines, and the price is close to the upper limit of the range. It is recommended to hold the strategies of selling out - of - the - money call and put options [6]. - Hot - rolled Coil: The fundamentals change little, and the price oscillates. It is recommended to wait and see for new orders [6]. - Iron Ore: The supply - demand may be slightly looser in June - July, and the price follows the steel price to oscillate in a narrow range. It is recommended to wait and see for new orders [6]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking Coal: The long - term supply is in excess, but the short - term supply tightens. Cautious investors are recommended to close their short positions and wait and see for new orders [8]. - Coke: The fundamentals show a double - decline in supply and demand. The spot price is approaching the bottom, and the futures price rebounds first [8]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda Ash: The supply is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to hold short positions and some arbitrage strategies [8]. - Float Glass: The performance is weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions and some arbitrage strategies [8]. Agricultural Products - Cotton: The inventory of the industry is decreasing, and the supply is expected to be tight. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy [10]. - Rubber: The demand is not fulfilled, the port inventory is increasing, and the price is under pressure [10].

在以色列同意特朗普提出的与伊朗停火的建议后，SC原油多个合约触及跌停并封跌停板，其中主力合 约收跌9%，报收518.6元/桶，跌至一周以来的最低水平，伊以停火缓解了人们对中东石油供应中断的担 忧。 特朗普在其社交媒体发文表示，以色列和伊朗已同意全面停火。此前，伊朗象征性报复了美军在卡塔尔 的军事基地，并未造成人员伤亡。地缘局势快速转变，导致油价巨幅波动，WTI原油价格回到冲突爆发 前的震荡区间。预计市场在适当剔除地缘风险溢价之后，将重新回到此前多因素交织形成的波动模式。 Phillip Nova高级市场分析师Priyanka Sachdeva表示："如果停火协议按照宣布的那样得到遵守，投资者 可能会预期油价将恢复正常。展望未来，以色列和伊朗遵守最近宣布的停火条件的程度将在决定油价方 面发挥重要作用。" IG分析师Tony Sycamore表示，有了停火的消息，上周在原油价格上形成的风险溢价仍然存在，但几乎 消失了。Sycamore还表示，从技术上讲，隔夜的抛售强化了约78.40美元（2024年10月至2025年6月的高 点）和80.77美元（今年迄今的高点）之间的阻力区间。很明显，原油要想突破这一阻力区间，原 ...

Core Viewpoint - Domestic oil prices continue to rise, with gasoline and diesel prices increasing by 260 yuan/ton and 255 yuan/ton respectively, leading to a rise of 0.2-0.22 yuan/liter for 92 and 95 octane gasoline [1][3] Price Adjustment Overview - The last price adjustment resulted in a consecutive increase in June, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 325 yuan and 315 yuan/ton respectively, translating to an increase of 0.25-0.28 yuan/liter [3] - In the first 12 adjustments of the year, there were 5 increases, 5 decreases, and 2 unchanged periods, with gasoline and diesel prices decreasing by 330 yuan and 315 yuan/ton respectively [3] - The next price adjustment is scheduled for July 1, 2025, with the current cycle showing a significant increase in oil prices [3][5] Price Prediction - The current price increase is expected to exceed 50 yuan/ton, indicating a substantial rise in domestic oil prices for the upcoming adjustment [5] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving the U.S. and Iran, have contributed to fluctuations in international oil prices, with recent reports indicating a drop of over 7% in oil prices due to easing tensions [5][7] - If the geopolitical situation stabilizes, there may be further opportunities for price adjustments to narrow in the upcoming cycle [7] Regional Price Data - The latest regional prices for 92 and 95 octane gasoline and 0 diesel show variations across provinces, with prices generally ranging from 7.13 to 9.95 yuan/liter for 92 octane gasoline and 7.64 to 9.79 yuan/liter for 95 octane gasoline [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the missile strike by Iran on a U.S. military base in Qatar, and its implications on oil prices and market sentiment. The announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, as stated by U.S. President Trump, has led to a significant decrease in geopolitical risk premiums in the oil market, resulting in a drop in oil prices and a rise in U.S. stock indices [1][2][5]. Oil Market - Oil prices fell by 5.65% in the overnight session following Trump's announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, which is expected to reduce geopolitical risk [2][11]. - The OPEC+ group may accelerate its production increase plans by about a year, responding to the current market conditions [2][11]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have retreated due to the easing of geopolitical tensions and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, which is influenced by inflation data and ongoing trade uncertainties [3][17]. - Despite long-term support for gold prices, the current high levels have led to hesitation in upward movement, while silver has shown limited upward momentum after a recent rally [3][17]. Coal and Coke - Coal production is recovering as some previously halted mines resume operations, leading to improved market conditions with reduced auction prices and lower overall transaction failure rates [4][23]. - The coke market is experiencing a seasonal decline in iron production, and while there is no immediate reversal in trends, the situation remains volatile due to fluctuating energy prices [4][23]. Industry News - As of the end of May, China's total installed power generation capacity reached 3.61 billion kilowatts, marking an 18.8% year-on-year increase, with solar and wind power capacities growing significantly [7].

以伊冲突之下等待标志性降温事件 板块观点汇总 | 品种 | 中期结构 | 短期结构 | 小时周期策略 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 震荡 | 偏多 | 观望 | | EB | 農汤 | 偏多 | 观望 | | PX | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望 | | PTA | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望 | | PP | 震荡 | 偏多 | 观望 | | 塑料 | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望 | | 甲醇 | 偏多 | 偏多 | 观望 | | EG | 震荡 | 偏多 | 观望 | | 橡胶 | 偏空 | 震荡 | 空单持有 | | PVC | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望 | | BR 橡胶 | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望 | 行情日评: 以色列-伊朗冲突尚未降温,以伊冲突仍是近期主要交易逻辑。 昨日特朗普表示将于两周内决定是否对伊朗采取军事行动,暂缓决定 打击伊朗一事,地缘风险小幅降温,但并非标志性的降温信号。目前 原油与能化判断依然是地缘事件带来的溢价扰动,类似与去年 10月 伊朗"真实承诺 2"行动带来的干扰,只是幅度更大,而非趋势反转。 短期情绪推高原油与化工估值后,等待降温事件出 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are under pressure from hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and a strengthening dollar, while geopolitical risks and inflation expectations provide support [1] - Short-term dynamics suggest that the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict may drive safe-haven buying, but the long-term trend will be dominated by the Federal Reserve's policy path and the actual effects of trade policies [1] - Key factors to monitor include U.S. policy movements towards Iran, progress in nuclear negotiations, and the Federal Reserve's stance on inflation response [1] Group 2 - Current trading strategy for gold suggests maintaining a bearish outlook, with resistance at 3385 and support in the 3330-3320 range [3] - The strategy emphasizes short positions on rebounds in the 3360-3365 area, with a stop-loss at 3388 and a target of 3340-3320 [4] - The analysis focuses on practical trading strategies rather than motivational content, aiming to provide concrete insights for traders [4]

Group 1: General Information - The report is a daily report on the polyolefin industry dated June 20, 2025 [1][2] - The energy and chemical research team includes researchers for polyolefins, crude oil and fuel oil, PTA, MEG, urea, industrial silicon, pulp, and glass - soda ash [4] Group 2: Futures Market Quotes - For plastic 2601, the opening price was 7370 yuan/ton, closing at 7399 yuan/ton, with a high of 7417 yuan/ton, a low of 7353 yuan/ton, a rise of 62 yuan/ton (0.85% increase), a position of 106,997 lots, and a position change of - 1395 lots [5] - For plastic 2605, the opening price was 7368 yuan/ton, closing at 7375 yuan/ton, with a high of 7400 yuan/ton, a low of 7342 yuan/ton, a rise of 48 yuan/ton (0.66% increase), a position of 801 lots, and a position change of 6 lots [5] - For plastic 2509, the opening price was 7425 yuan/ton, closing at 7462 yuan/ton, with a high of 7479 yuan/ton, a low of 7397 yuan/ton, a rise of 71 yuan/ton (0.96% increase), a position of 478,375 lots, and a position change of 2116 lots [5] - For PP2601, the opening price was 7149 yuan/ton, closing at 7221 yuan/ton, with a high of 7233 yuan/ton, a low of 7149 yuan/ton, a rise of 101 yuan/ton (1.42% increase), a position of 91,599 lots, and a position change of 3106 lots [5] - For PP2605, the opening price was 7159 yuan/ton, closing at 7208 yuan/ton, with a high of 7214 yuan/ton, a low of 7159 yuan/ton, a rise of 100 yuan/ton (1.41% increase), a position of 987 lots, and a position change of - 1 lot [5] - For PP2509, the opening price was 7215 yuan/ton, closing at 7274 yuan/ton, with a high of 7279 yuan/ton, a low of 7213 yuan/ton, a rise of 85 yuan/ton (1.18% increase), a position of 487,507 lots, and a position change of 10,454 lots [5] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - L2509 opened higher, fluctuated upward during the session, and closed up at 7462 yuan/ton, up 71 yuan/ton (0.96%), with a trading volume of 430,000 lots and an increase in positions by 2137 to 478,396 lots. PP's main contract closed at 7274 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan (1.18% increase), with an increase in positions by 10,500 lots to 487,500 lots [6] - The futures market maintained high - level fluctuations, but the market trading atmosphere was average. Traders raised prices following the market, while downstream buyers were resistant to high - priced goods and mainly made purchases based on rigid demand [6] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East showed signs of escalation, and risk - aversion sentiment supported oil prices. The shutdown of Iranian methanol plants pushed up MA. Polyolefins were in a stage of strong cost and weak supply - demand game. In the short term, cost logic supported the upward movement of polyolefin prices, but downstream demand was difficult to follow up, and the basis of plastic and PP continued to weaken [6] Group 4: Industry News - On June 19, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 760,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons (3.18% decline) from the previous working day, the same as the inventory level in the same period last year [7] - The PE market prices rose steadily. In North China, some linear PE prices increased by 20 - 80 yuan/ton, some high - pressure PE prices increased by 20 - 250 yuan/ton, and some low - pressure PE prices increased by 10 - 150 yuan/ton. In East China, some high - pressure PE prices increased by 20 - 150 yuan/ton, some low - pressure PE prices increased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton, and some linear PE prices increased by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. In South China, some linear and low - pressure PE prices increased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, and some high - pressure PE prices increased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton [7] - The PP market still showed an upward trend. The high - level fluctuation of futures continued to boost the spot market atmosphere. Some petrochemical plants raised their prices, and cost support remained. Traders' quotation centers moved up, but downstream buyers were cautious, with low willingness to enter the market. The actual transaction volume was limited, and transactions were mainly at the lower negotiated prices [7] - The mainstream prices of North China PP drawstring in the morning were 7160 - 7270 yuan/ton, 7240 - 7330 yuan/ton in East China, and 7170 - 7330 yuan/ton in South China [7] Group 5: Data Overview - The report includes data on futures market quotes, L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, L and PP basis, and two - oil inventories and their year - on - year changes, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [5][11][15][18]