Group 1 - A-shares experienced a significant decline today, attributed to multiple factors including the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][2][8] - The Federal Reserve's meeting resulted in no interest rate cuts, with Chairman Powell citing uncertainties in inflation and trade tensions as reasons for the decision, leading to a rebound in the US dollar and a drop in US stocks [1][2] - The Middle East situation remains tense, with recent attacks affecting securities trading centers, contributing to market volatility [2] Group 2 - A-shares saw a substantial increase in trading volume, reaching 1.28 trillion, with a net outflow of 73.9 billion, marking one of the worst trading days since June [3][5] - The majority of sectors, except for oil and gas, faced declines, indicating a broad market downturn [5] - Despite the downturn, there are no immediate signs of a major risk event, suggesting that while the market is volatile, it is not in a state of crisis [5][8] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that the market has formed a top structure since June 10, and the current decline was anticipated [11] - Many indices, including the CSI 1000, are showing signs of potential bottom structures, although overcoming the larger top structures may be challenging [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall balance sheet of new US soybean crops has tightened, especially under the influence of biodiesel policy adjustments, making the overall supply - demand situation more tense. South American supply is generally loose, with potential export pressure in Brazil and stable high - yield in Argentina. In China, soybean arrivals are increasing while demand is good, but there is still some pressure [4]. - Raw sugar has been dragged down by the expected increase in global supply, hitting a four - year low. In China, the delayed summer stocking demand, combined with the short - term weakness of raw sugar, has led to higher import profits, and the supply pressure of refined sugar is about to materialize. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the decline of raw sugar [9]. - Last Friday night, the EPA's proposed RVO exceeded expectations, causing the US soybean oil to hit the daily limit. Affected by geopolitical factors in the Middle East, Brent crude oil also opened higher. Oils and fats are expected to run strongly in the short term, following crude oil and US biodiesel. Fundamentally, India has lowered the tax rate on crude palm oil, which may increase its procurement. Domestic soybean oil is in a stage of inventory accumulation, but the overall supply is not overly loose. The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much, with a pattern of oversupply, but the bottom support of the rapeseed oil market is still strong [17]. - US corn sowing is accelerating, and the weather is favorable, so the outer - market corn is oscillating at the bottom. In China, corn supply is relatively scarce, with rising prices in the Northeast and stable port prices. It is rumored that imported corn will be auctioned. The spot price of corn in North China is strong, and the wheat price continues to rise. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn has widened, and the corn spot price is relatively stable. The 07 corn contract has declined, and the basis has narrowed. Corn spot is expected to be strong in the short term, while futures will oscillate at a high level [26]. - After the continuous decline in pig prices, farmers' resistance to low prices has increased, and the overall slaughter rhythm has slowed down. However, due to the increasing monthly slaughter of large - scale enterprises and the high inventory of ordinary farmers and secondary fattening, the overall supply pressure is still relatively high [30]. - Peanut spot trading is still scarce. New - season peanuts in Henan and Northeast China have declined and are currently stable at around 4.6 yuan per catty. Imports have decreased significantly, and the price of imported peanuts is also falling. Peanut oil mills' purchase prices are relatively stable, but downstream consumption remains weak. Peanut meal prices are stable, and peanut oil prices are stable. Oil mills are profitable, but the purchase volume of large - scale oil mills is small. The peanut market for oil is weak. The market expects an increase in the new - season planting area, and peanuts are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term with potential for further decline [34]. - After May, with the arrival of the rainy season, egg consumption has entered the off - season, and the spot price is expected to remain weak. For futures, considering the current price level, the downward space is limited. For far - month contracts, as egg prices weaken, the willingness to cull laying hens has increased. If the culling volume continues to rise in the future, which may improve the egg supply, the August and September contracts (peak - season contracts) may rise, but the upward space may be limited if the supply side is not significantly improved [43]. - The low inventory of apples this season is expected to support the opening price of early - maturing apples such as Gala. The windy and hot weather in April had a negative impact on fruit setting in some areas of Shaanxi. The futures price of apples in June is expected to oscillate slightly stronger [50]. - The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures is affected by two factors. On the macro level, the uncertainty of Sino - US trade relations and China's trade policies with other countries makes the cotton trend highly uncertain. On the fundamental level, the national commercial cotton inventory is currently at a low level. If the inventory - reduction speed remains the same in the future, the market may trade on the tight supply of cotton before the new - flower listing, and cotton prices may oscillate slightly stronger [58]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - **External Market Situation**: CBOT soybean index rose 0.69% to 1062.75 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.03% to 298.6 US dollars per short ton [2]. - **Relevant Information**: US May soybean crushing is expected to reach a record high for the same period, with an average estimate of 193.519 million bushels. Brazil's soybean exports from March to May increased by 3.3 million tons to 44 million tons. CONAB expects Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production to reach 169.6058 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. As of June 13, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2587 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.49%. Soybean inventory increased by 4.7% week - on - week and 24.7% year - on - year, and soybean meal inventory increased by 28.36% week - on - week but decreased by 57% year - on - year [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The new US soybean balance sheet has tightened, while South American supply is loose. In China, there is still some pressure despite increasing arrivals and good demand [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - term short - selling operations for single - side trading; M11 - 1 positive spread for arbitrage; selling call options for options trading [5]. Sugar - **External Market Situation**: ICE US sugar fell, with the main contract down 0.16 (0.96%) to 16.54 cents per pound [6]. - **Important Information**: Sugar prices in Guangxi, Yunnan, and processing plants have decreased. As of Friday, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 707 week - on - week, and the number of effective forecasts remained unchanged. China's sugar imports in May are expected to be about 400,000 tons, much higher than 20,000 tons in the same period last year. The sales - to - production ratio of domestic sugar in the 24/25 season as of the end of May exceeded 70% [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: Raw sugar has been affected by the expected increase in global supply, while in China, the supply pressure of refined sugar is about to materialize, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the decline [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, maintain a short position with partial profit - taking and partial holding; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for options, use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [10][11][12]. Oilseeds and Oils - **External Market Situation**: The price of CBOT US soybean oil changed by 6.48% to 50.61 cents per pound, and the price of BMD Malaysian palm oil changed by 2.27% to 3927 ringgit per ton [14]. - **Relevant Information**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 15 increased by 26.3% compared to the same period last month. The US EPA proposed a mandatory blending requirement of 5.61 billion gallons of biomass - based diesel (BBD) in 2026. As of June 10, about 13% of US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, and about 18% of US corn planting areas were affected [15]. - **Logic Analysis**: The EPA's proposal and geopolitical factors have led to a strong short - term trend in oils and fats. India's tax reduction on crude palm oil may increase its procurement. Domestic soybean oil is accumulating inventory, and the rapeseed oil market has an oversupply pattern but strong bottom support [17]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, oils and fats are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term but may fall back after the event and sentiment fade; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [18][19][20]. Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market Changes**: CBOT corn futures rose, with the main contract rebounding 0.2% to 444.5 cents per bushel [22]. - **Important Information**: In the US corn - producing states, 94.44% of the areas are likely to have higher - than - normal temperatures and 61% are likely to have higher - than - normal precipitation in the next 6 - 10 days. The wheat market price is rising. As of June 10, about 13% of US soybean planting areas and 18% of US corn planting areas were affected by drought. The expected corn planting area in the US 2025/2026 is 95.3 million acres, unchanged from May. The purchase price in the northern port is stable, and the corn price in the North China production area is strong [23][25]. - **Logic Analysis**: US corn sowing is accelerating, and the outer - market corn is oscillating at the bottom. In China, corn supply is scarce, and the spot price is expected to be strong in the short term, while futures will oscillate at a high level [26]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, the outer - market 07 corn is oscillating at the bottom, and take a wait - and - see approach for the 07 contract; for arbitrage, conduct oscillating operations on corn and starch spreads, buy the 09 starch contract and short the 09 corn contract when the spread is low, and hold the position of buying corn and shorting the 07 corn contract; for options, consider a strategy of selling options at high prices for those with spot inventory [27][28]. Pigs - **Relevant Information**: Pig prices are rebounding in most regions. As of June 13, the prices of 7 - kg and 15 - kg piglets remained unchanged, while the price of 50 - kg sows decreased by 3 yuan per head. On June 13, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" decreased by 0.14 points, and the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.3% [30]. - **Logic Analysis**: After the decline in pig prices, farmers' resistance to low prices has increased, but the overall supply pressure remains high due to the increasing slaughter of large - scale enterprises and high inventory [30]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, take a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, conduct LH79 reverse spreads; for options, take a wait - and - see approach [31]. Peanuts - **Important Information**: Peanut prices in different regions are stable. The arrival volume of peanut oil mills is small, and the price of peanut oil is strong with some negotiation space. Peanut meal sales are slow. As of June 12, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises decreased by 5280 tons week - on - week, and the peanut oil inventory decreased by 170 tons week - on - week [32][33]. - **Logic Analysis**: Peanut spot trading is scarce, imports are decreasing, and the market expects an increase in the new - season planting area, so peanuts are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [34]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, short peanuts at high prices; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for options, sell the pk510 - C - 8800 option [35][36][37]. Eggs - **Important Information**: The average price of eggs in the main production areas decreased by 0.22 yuan per catty compared to last Friday, and the price in the main sales areas decreased by 0.18 yuan per catty. The national mainstream egg price is mostly stable. In May, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.334 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion month - on - month and 7.2% year - on - year. The egg - chick hatching volume in May decreased by 4% month - on - month and increased by 1% year - on - year. As of June 13, the weekly slaughter volume of laying hens increased by 2.8% week - on - week, and the average slaughter age decreased by 3 days. As of June 12, the weekly egg sales volume in representative sales areas decreased by 7.4% week - on - week. The average inventory in the production and circulation links increased, and the egg - farming profit decreased [40][41][42]. - **Trading Logic**: Egg consumption is in the off - season, and the spot price is expected to be weak. For futures, the downward space is limited. If the culling volume of laying hens increases, the August and September contracts may rise, but the upward space may be limited [43]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, consider building long positions in the August and September far - month contracts in mid - to - late June when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is high; for arbitrage, short near - month contracts and long far - month contracts; for options, take a wait - and - see approach [44]. Apples - **Important Information**: As of June 11, the inventory of apples in cold storage in the main production areas was 1.2746 million tons, a decrease of 107,400 tons week - on - week, and the sales speed slowed down. In 2025, the cumulative apple export volume from January to March increased by 9.5% year - on - year, and the import volume increased by 123.9% year - on - year. The downstream demand for apples is weak, and the impact of seasonal fruits is significant. The new - season apple bagging is mostly in the later stage. The price of apples in Shandong and Shaanxi is stable, with more transactions in high - cost - performance products [45][47][48]. - **Trading Logic**: The low inventory of apples this season is expected to support the price of early - maturing apples. The futures price in June is expected to oscillate slightly stronger [50]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, build long positions in the AP10 contract at low prices; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [56]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market Influence**: ICE US cotton rose on Friday, with the main contract rising 0.37 (0.55%) to 67.90 cents per pound [52]. - **Important Information**: Cotton spot trading is cold, and the purchase intention of spinning mills is weak. The sales basis is firm. As of June 6, the number of un - priced contracts of ICE cotton futures sellers decreased by 1511. From June 1 to 11, the rainfall in India's cotton - producing areas was lower than normal. The southwest monsoon resumed on Thursday [53][54][57]. - **Trading Logic**: The uncertainty of trade policies affects the cotton trend, and the low commercial inventory may lead to tight supply before the new - flower listing, so cotton prices may oscillate slightly stronger [58]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, US cotton is expected to oscillate slightly stronger, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate strongly under macro - influence; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [59][60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic economic fundamentals have weakened slightly, suppressing the market's bullish sentiment. After the previous market recovery following the easing of the tariff war, the index faces significant pressure at the April high. With the market currently in a policy vacuum and lacking trading volume support, the index is expected to fluctuate weakly. Strategically, it is recommended to go short lightly on rallies in single - sided trading, and construct bear spreads for corresponding option varieties [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Prices - IF, IC, IH, and IM main and sub - main contracts all declined. For example, the IF main contract (2506) was at 3805.0, down 7.8; the IC main contract (2506) was at 5568.0, down 14.6 [2] 3.2 Futures Price Spreads - All spreads such as IF - IH, IC - IF, IM - IC, etc. for the current month contracts declined, except for the spreads between different quarters of some contracts which showed an increase [2] 3.3 Futures Net Positions - The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IC, and IM decreased, while the net positions of the top 20 in IH increased [2] 3.4 Spot Prices - The spot prices of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all declined, and the basis of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM showed different trends [2] 3.5 Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume and margin trading balance increased, while north - bound trading volume decreased. The proportion of rising stocks decreased, and Shibor declined [2] 3.6 Option Data - The closing price of the IO at - the - money call option decreased, and its implied volatility increased; the closing price of the IO at - the - money put option increased, and its implied volatility decreased [2] 3.7 Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - In the Wind market strength and weakness analysis, the overall A - share and technical indicators declined, while the capital indicator increased [2] 3.8 Key Data to Watch - Key data to watch include the minutes of the Fed's May monetary policy meeting on May 29, US April PCE and core PCE on May 30, and China's May official manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMI on May 31 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in US stock markets, particularly on May 21, was driven by weak US Treasury auction results and concerns over the sustainability of US debt following a credit rating downgrade by Moody's [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The S&P 500 ETF, Dow Jones Index, and Nasdaq Composite Index experienced declines of 1.61%, 1.91%, and 1.41% respectively on May 21 [1]. - Investors showed low interest in the latest US Treasury auction, with yields significantly exceeding market expectations, leading to fears about rising fiscal deficits due to potential tax cuts [3]. Group 2: Catalysts to Watch - Key upcoming factors that may influence market trends include US inflation data, potential political interference in monetary policy, trade negotiations, corporate earnings performance, and macroeconomic uncertainties [4]. - The technology sector remains a focal point for long-term market interest despite anticipated short-term volatility [4]. Group 3: Nvidia's Position - Nvidia is set to release its earnings report soon, making it a significant focus for market participants [5]. - The company has a strong competitive advantage, but faces challenges such as export restrictions to China and increasing competition from major players like AMD, Google, and Microsoft [10][11]. Group 4: Financial Performance - Nvidia's past financial performance has been robust, driven by its data center business, with strong revenue and profit growth expected to continue in the upcoming quarters [8]. - Despite concerns about supply chain risks and geopolitical uncertainties, Nvidia's leadership in AI chip technology remains solid, supported by recent positive developments in the Middle East [11]. Group 5: Technical and Market Signals - Nvidia's stock has been fluctuating between $130 and $138, with short-term support near $130 and resistance around $138 [13]. - Recent trading activity indicates a net outflow of $1.7 billion on May 21, primarily due to profit-taking, but short-selling pressure remains limited [15]. - The implied volatility for Nvidia options is at 56.23%, suggesting potential for further price movement as the earnings report approaches [17]. Group 6: Options Activity - Recent options activity shows a predominance of bullish sentiment, with traders focusing on price ranges between $110-$160 and $120-$145 [20][21]. - The options market reflects a mixed outlook, with significant trading volumes indicating expectations of price movements following the earnings announcement [19][21].

Group 1 - The CME Bitcoin futures main contract increased by 1.35% to $107,000 compared to the previous New York close [1] - The CME Ether futures main contract decreased by 0.38% to $2,518.50 [1] - Options traders are holding a significant number of open contracts betting that the price will rise to $300,000 by June 27 [1] Group 2 - The growth in open contracts on Deribit is focused on Bitcoin contracts that predict a rise above $110,000 [1]

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