Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, suggesting investment opportunities in key companies [3][5]. Core Insights - The EIA has continuously revised down its oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026, now predicting an average of $66 and $59 per barrel respectively. The forecast for US natural gas prices is $4.1 and $4.8 per million British thermal units for the same years [6][7]. - Global oil demand growth is expected to remain stable, with IEA projecting increases of 740,000 and 760,000 barrels per day for 2025 and 2026 respectively. OPEC forecasts a demand increase of 1.3 million and 1.28 million barrels per day for the same years [10][11]. - On the supply side, OPEC is expected to contribute additional production, with EIA forecasting a global oil production increase of 1.38 million and 1.3 million barrels per day for 2025 and 2026 respectively [15][18]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $65.41 per barrel, a 2.35% increase week-on-week. WTI futures rose by 2.41% to $62.49 per barrel [25]. - The US oil rig count decreased to 576, down by 2 from the previous week and down 28 year-on-year [38][41]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin increased to $12.72 per barrel, while the US gasoline crack spread rose to $27.41 per barrel [6][19]. - The report anticipates improved refining profitability as oil prices adjust, with a gradual recovery expected as economic conditions improve [6][19]. Polyester Sector - PTA prices have risen, while PTA profitability has declined. The report notes that the overall performance of the polyester industry is average, with a potential improvement expected as new capacities come online [6][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong. It also suggests investing in companies with high dividend yields like China National Petroleum and CNOOC [21][22]. - For the downstream polyester sector, companies like Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [21][22].

主要能源机构5月平衡表 姓名：肖彧 投资咨询证号：Z0016296 2025年5月15日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 目录 CONTENTS 01 EIA 02 OPEC 注：括号内数字为上月月报数据，供参考对比 EIA现在预计2025年布伦特原油价格平均66美元/桶（68），2026年进一步跌至59美元/桶（61） 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 21-1 21-7 22-1 22-7 23-1 23-7 24-1 24-7 25-1 25-7 26-1 26-7 四年区间 WTI现货价 预估值 Brent价格预估变化 WTI现货价预测 资料来源：EIA 01 EIA 1.1 EIA平衡表 供应 消费 平衡 平衡变化 2025Q1 103.19 103.22 -0.03 +0.17 2025Q2 103.81 103.33 +0.48 -0.07 2025Q3 104.42 104.01 +0.41 -0.26 2025Q4 105.07 104.32 +0.75 -0.02 2025 104.12 103.72 +0.41 -0.05 2026 105.4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has significantly lowered its WTI crude oil price forecasts for the next two years, indicating a bearish outlook for the oil market [4]. Price Forecast Adjustments - The EIA has revised its 2025 WTI spot price forecast from $63.88 per barrel to $61.81 per barrel, and for 2026, from $57.48 per barrel to $55.24 per barrel. The 2024 WTI spot price forecast remains unchanged at $76.60 per barrel [4]. - The EIA's quarterly price predictions for 2025 include $60.85 per barrel in Q2, $58 in Q3, and $57 in Q4, with Q1 at $71.85 per barrel. For 2026, the forecasts are $56 per barrel in Q1 and Q2, $55 in Q3, and $54 in Q4 [4]. Comparison with Previous Forecasts - The latest forecasts show a downward trend compared to the EIA's April predictions, which had estimated $62.33 per barrel for Q2 2025, $61.67 for Q3, and $60 for Q4. The 2026 forecasts were $59 for Q1, $58 for Q2, $57 for Q3, and $56 for Q4 [4]. - In March, the EIA had a more optimistic outlook, predicting an average price of $70.68 per barrel for 2025 and $64.97 per barrel for 2026 [5]. Other Market Predictions - Standard Chartered's commodity research head forecasts an average WTI price of $58 per barrel for 2025, rising to $75 per barrel in 2026, with specific quarterly predictions for 2025 being $50 in Q2, $49 in Q3, and $62 in Q4 [5]. - J.P. Morgan's commodity research team anticipates an average WTI price of $62 per barrel for 2025, potentially dropping to $54 per barrel in 2026, with Q2 2025 expected to be $63 per barrel, declining to $57 in Q4 [5].

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Wells Fargo economists predict that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April will rise by 0.2% after a surprising decline of 0.1% in March, leading to an annual CPI rate of 2.3%, the lowest in four years [1] - Deutsche Bank expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25-4.50% and emphasizes the need to observe the impact of recently implemented trade policies on economic growth and inflation [3] - UBS Wealth Management highlights that concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve could significantly damage the dollar's safe-haven status, with currencies like the yen and Swiss franc benefiting in the current environment [2] Group 2: Market Trends and Asset Allocation - Analysts at Societe Generale note a trend of investors shifting from U.S. assets to European assets, although this transition may take time to fully materialize [4] - Bank of America indicates that the recent surge in interest in European markets does not necessarily signal a structural shift, as many institutional investors remain cautious about large-scale capital transfers from the U.S. [5] - Citic Securities maintains a preference for gold over copper and oil in the commodities market, citing OPEC+'s unexpected production increase as a factor that may lead to a supply surplus in the oil market [6][5] Group 3: Commodity Price Forecasts - KPMG has revised its Brent crude oil price forecast for the end of the year down from $70 to $60 per barrel, reflecting improved global oil supply conditions [6] - Barclays has postponed its forecast for the next Bank of Japan interest rate hike to January 2026, adjusting its final rate prediction down to 1.00% [7] Group 4: Domestic Market Insights - Galaxy Securities reports a significant increase in global gold ETF inflows in Q1 2025, with net purchases by central banks remaining strong, supporting the long-term bullish outlook for gold prices [8] - The automotive market in China is expected to see a rebound in sales, driven by the release of new models and the end of consumer hesitation following the Shanghai Auto Show [8]

在OPEC+上周末决定6月份大幅增产后，高盛一个月内第三次下调了其油价预测。 在上周六的一次线上会议中，以沙特和俄罗斯为首的OPEC+主要产油国同意将日均产量提高41.1万桶，几乎是原计划增产量 的三倍，目的是惩罚像哈萨克斯坦这样长期违反该联盟配额规定的国家。 OPEC+在5月份已经实施了类似举措，标志着该联盟从捍卫油价的努力中急剧转向，现在看来这明显是一场针对美国页岩油 生产商以及哈萨克斯坦等各个超额生产的OPEC+成员国的价格战。 高盛的分析师现在预计，布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶60美元，低于此前预测的每桶63美元；美国基准WTI原油在2025 年的平均价格下调至56美元，低于此前预期的每桶59美元。 就明年而言，布伦特原油的平均价格预计为每桶56美元，低于此前的58美元，而WTI原油预计为每桶52美元，低于4月中旬 之前预测的每桶55美元。 | | | GS Forecasts ($/bbl) | | | Brent | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Brent Prior | Brent New | WTI New | WTI Prior | ...

Core Viewpoint - Barclays has lowered its Brent crude oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 due to OPEC+'s decision to accelerate oil production growth [1] Group 1: Price Forecast Adjustments - The 2025 Brent crude oil price forecast has been reduced by $4 to $66 per barrel [1] - The 2026 Brent crude oil price forecast has been reduced by $2 to $60 per barrel [1] Group 2: OPEC+ Production Changes - Barclays has revised its outlook on OPEC+, expecting the organization to continue accelerating the gradual removal of additional voluntary adjustments [1] - The revised plan is now expected to take effect within 6 months, compared to the initial 18-month timeline [1] - This change will lead to an increase in OPEC's crude oil production forecasts by 390,000 barrels per day for 2025 and 230,000 barrels per day for 2026 [1]