商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 08 日 铜：风险情绪较高，支撑价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 92,780 | 1.98% | 92380 | -0.43% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 11,665 | 2.02% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 402,980 | -51,193 | 653,661 | 23,962 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 30,645 | 6,105 | 342,000 | 966 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 30,936 | -1,203 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 162,550 | -275 | 39.28% | -0.23% | ...

2025年12月08日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：降息预期回升 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡回落 | 2 | | 铜：风险情绪较高，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：关注供应端扰动 | 6 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 9 | | 铝：重心上移 | 11 | | 氧化铝：继续承压 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：上行动力不足 | 11 | | 铂：继续震荡 | 13 | | 钯：窄幅波动 | 13 | | 镍：结构性过剩转变，博弈矛盾并未改变 | 15 | | 不锈钢：供需延续双弱运行，成本支撑逻辑增强 | 15 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 8 日 黄金：降息预期回升 白银：震荡回落 业 服 务 研 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金2512 | | 961 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views - The report provides trend outlooks for various commodities, such as gold with rising rate - cut expectations, silver in a downward - oscillating trend, and copper supported by high risk sentiment [2]. - It also presents detailed fundamental data and market news for each commodity to assist investors in making decisions. Summary of Each Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Rate - cut expectations are rising. The prices of domestic and international gold contracts show different trends, and the central bank has been increasing its gold holdings for 13 consecutive months [2][6][9]. - **Silver**: It is in an oscillating decline. There are changes in the prices and trading volumes of domestic and international silver contracts, and the ETF holdings have decreased [2][6]. - **Platinum**: It continues to oscillate. The prices of different platinum contracts and related spreads have changed [26]. - **Palladium**: It fluctuates in a narrow range. The prices of different palladium contracts and related spreads have changed [26]. Base Metals - **Copper**: High risk sentiment supports the price. There are changes in the prices, trading volumes, and inventories of copper contracts, and some copper - related companies have production and export news [2][10][12]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to the supply - side disturbances. The prices and trading volumes of zinc contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the market [13][14]. - **Lead**: The decrease in inventory supports the price. The prices and trading volumes of lead contracts have changed, and there is relevant macro - economic news [16][17]. - **Tin**: There are new supply disturbances. The prices and trading volumes of tin contracts have changed, and there is relevant macro - economic news [19][21]. - **Aluminum**: The center of gravity moves up. The prices, trading volumes, and inventories of aluminum, alumina, and casting aluminum alloy contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the market [23][25]. - **Nickel**: The structural surplus has changed, but the game contradictions remain unchanged. There are changes in the prices, trading volumes, and related industrial chain data of nickel and stainless steel contracts, and there are relevant news about the industry [30][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: It oscillates weakly, and attention should be paid to the development of the Nigerian mine - shutdown event. The prices, trading volumes, and related industrial chain data of carbonate lithium contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [35][36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the development of the Xinjiang environmental - protection event. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of industrial silicon and polysilicon contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [38][39][41]. - **Polysilicon**: It is a core target for anti - involution, and the idea of buying at low price is recommended. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of polysilicon contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [39][41]. - **Iron Ore**: The downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of iron ore contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [42]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market has a long - short game and wide - range oscillation. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [46][47]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: Silicon ferrosilicon is affected by the factory - restart sentiment and has wide - range oscillation, while manganese silicon has a long - short sentiment game and wide - range oscillation. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silicon contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [50][51][52]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: They have wide - range oscillation. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of coke and coking coal contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [54][55]. - **Log**: It oscillates at a low level. There is relevant news about the industry [56][59]. - **Para - Xylene**: It is in a high - level oscillating market supported by cost. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of para - xylene, PTA, and MEG contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [61][63][65]. - **PTA**: It is in a unilateral high - level oscillating market. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of PTA contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [61][63][66]. - **MEG**: The price hits a new low, and the trend is weak. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of MEG contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [61][63][66]. - **Rubber**: It oscillates. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of rubber contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [67][68][70]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It oscillates downward. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of synthetic rubber contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [71][72][73]. - **Asphalt**: The oil price rebounds, and it oscillates in a narrow range. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of asphalt contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [74][82][83]. - **LLDPE**: The basis weakens, and the upstream selling pressure continues to be released. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of LLDPE contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [84][85]. - **PP**: The medium - term trend still has pressure. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of PP contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [86][87][88]. - **Caustic Soda**: The trend still has pressure. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of caustic soda contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [90][91][92]. - **Pulp**: It oscillates. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of pulp contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [94][96][98]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of glass contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [99][100]. - **Methanol**: It runs under pressure. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of methanol contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [102][103][105]. - **Urea**: It oscillates downward. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of urea contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [107][108][110]. - **Styrene**: It oscillates in the short term. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of styrene contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [111][112]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of soda ash contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [114]. - **LPG**: The short - term demand is strong, but the medium - and long - term is still under pressure. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of LPG and propylene contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [116][120][121]. - **Propylene**: There is an expected increase in supply, and the upward driving force is limited. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of propylene contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [116][120][121]. - **PVC**: It oscillates at a low level. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of PVC contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [124][125][126]. - **Fuel Oil**: It oscillates in a narrow range and may temporarily get rid of the weak trend. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [127]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It rebounds at night, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to narrow. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of low - sulfur fuel oil contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [127]. Agricultural Products - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: It is in an oscillating market. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of container shipping index contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [129][138][139]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: They have medium - term pressure, and it is recommended to reduce the processing margin when the price is high. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of short - fiber and bottle - chip contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [140][141]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is recommended to wait and see. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of offset printing paper contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [143][144][146]. - **Pure Benzene**: It oscillates in the short term. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of pure benzene contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [148][149]. - **Palm Oil**: Wait for the confirmation of the inflection point and conduct range trading temporarily. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [151][152][158]. - **Soybean Oil**: Driven by US soybeans is insufficient, and it oscillates. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of soybean oil contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [151][152][158]. - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans close down, and Dalian soybean meal may follow a weak oscillation. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of soybean meal and soybean contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [160][161][163]. - **Soybean**: The market oscillates. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of soybean contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [160][161][163]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot market. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of corn contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [164][165][167]. - **Sugar**: It runs weakly. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of sugar contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [168][169][171]. - **Cotton**: The upward trend slows down, and attention should be paid to downstream demand. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of cotton contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [173][174][176]. - **Egg**: The spot market oscillates. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of egg contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [177]. - **Live Pig**: The weakness continues, and the basis logic returns. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of live - pig contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [179][180][181]. - **Peanut**: Pay attention to the purchase of oil mills. The prices, trading volumes, and related data of peanut contracts have changed, and there is relevant news about the industry [183][184][187].

美国财政部长贝森特预计，尽管经历了长时间的政府关门，美国今年仍将实现3%的实际GDP增速。这 一预测显示白宫对经济前景保持乐观，尽管消费者信心和通胀压力仍是市场关注焦点。 通胀与消费者信心分化 消费者支出占美国GDP近70%，但消费者情绪依然低迷。密歇根大学消费者信心指数12月为53.3，虽较 11月上升4.5%，但较去年同期下降28%。 这一表态与消费者情绪形成对比。密歇根大学12月消费者信心指数为53.3，较去年同期下降28%。近期 民调显示，约三分之二的注册选民认为特朗普政府在经济和生活成本问题上表现不及预期。 贝森特将消费者对负担能力的担忧归咎于媒体报道的影响，并称政府正在处理拜登政府留下的通胀问 题，他表示明年美国将"迈向繁荣"。 经济增长或超预期 根据美国经济分析局数据，2025年第一季度GDP同比收缩0.6%，但第二季度实现3.8%的增长。 贝森特表示： 经济状况好于我们的预期，我们有几个季度实现了4%的GDP增长。尽管发生了政府关门事 件，我们今年仍将以3%的实际GDP增速收官。 亚特兰大联储12月5日发布的最新预测显示，第三季度年化GDP增速为3.5%。经济分析局将于12月23日 公布第三季 ...

Group 1 - New Zealand's economy is under dual pressure from a stagnant real estate market and weaker-than-expected government fiscal conditions, with the national median residential value remaining flat at 806,561 NZD in November, down 0.73% year-on-year [1][42] - The high-end real estate markets are showing signs of weakness, particularly in Auckland, where prices fell by 0.24% in November and have decreased by 2.20% year-to-date, while Queenstown's median price, exceeding 1.56 million NZD, dropped by 0.61% in November [1][42] - The New Zealand Treasury reported that core tax revenue for the first four months of the fiscal year was 39.5 billion NZD, 600 million NZD below expectations, primarily due to weaker corporate and personal tax revenues [43] Group 2 - The total expenditure of 48.5 billion NZD was only slightly above expectations by about 200 million NZD, but the operational deficit, excluding ACC, reached 4.9 billion NZD, exceeding the May budget forecast by approximately 700 million NZD [2][43] - The only positive aspect noted was that the government's net debt as a percentage of GDP was 42.8%, slightly lower than expected [2]

（来源：领盛Optivest） 基本面总结： 1．欧元区经济增速超过初值，主要得益于内需提振： 欧元区第三季度经济增速超过初值，得益于投资和消费提振。周五数据显示，产出较前三个月增长0.3%，增幅高于欧盟统计局0.2%的初步估计。净贸易 成为增长拖累因素。2025年下半年面对关税扰动，该地区经济展现出令人意外的韧性。稳健的劳动力市场支撑私人消费，而企业支出则受益于低借贷成 本。欧洲央行行长拉加德等官员认为，尽管地缘政治紧张局势持续带来不确定性，但经济前景的风险已趋于更加平衡。强劲的经济表现助力工资持续稳健 增长。另据数据显示，7月至9月期间人均薪酬同比增幅达4%，与前三个月增速持平。欧元区2025年第三季度就业人数同比增长0.6%，环比增长0.2%。 欧元区整体数据表现为欧洲央行暂停降息提供了充足依据和叙事观点支撑。欧洲央行官员近期的表态普遍暗示，他们对当前的利率水平感到满意，并认为 政策"基本中性"。会议纪要显示，强劲的宏观经济前景强化了市场对欧洲央行维持现有利率水平的信心，排除了短期内进一步降息的可能性。市场目前预 计欧洲央行将在未来几个月继续"按兵不动"，降息可能要等到2026年上半年才会恢复讨论。 2 ...

美国消费者支出9月停滞不前，表明面对顽固的通胀，美国人在政府停摆前已经开始控制开支。 消费支出放缓表明，在10月1日史上最长政府停摆期开始之前，美国经济的主要增长引擎已在减速。更 近期的数据表明，黑色星期五销售表现稳健，但消费者对就业市场日益感到担忧，支出主要由较富裕家 庭推动。 不包括食品和能源的核心个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数较8月上升0.2%，同比升幅2.8%。 经济分析局表示，下一次数据发布时间尚未重新安排。 消费支出放缓表明，在10月1日史上最长政府停摆期开始之前，美国经济的主要增长引擎已在减速。更 近期的数据表明，黑色星期五销售表现稳健，但消费者对就业市场日益感到担忧，支出主要由较富裕家 庭推动。 周五的另一份数据显示，密歇根大学消费者信心在12月初出现五个月来首次上升，表明随着通胀预期改 善，人们对个人财务前景更为乐观。 责任编辑：李桐 美国消费者支出9月停滞不前，表明面对顽固的通胀，美国人在政府停摆前已经开始控制开支。 根据经济分析局周五公布的数据，经价格调整后的消费者支出9月几乎没有变化，8月增幅被下修至 0.2%。这份报告原定于10月31日出炉，因政府停摆而被推迟发布。 根据经济分析局周 ...

Group 1 - The US stock market is experiencing significant volatility, nearing historical highs, but concerns over inflation and deteriorating consumer confidence are causing investor uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve's final policy meeting of the year [1] - Consumer confidence index has declined for three consecutive months, with over 40% of respondents expressing pessimism about the economic outlook for the next six months [3] - The ADP private sector employment report indicates a substantial drop in new job additions, with a 12% increase in job seekers and a slight rise in the unemployment rate, reigniting discussions about recession risks [3] Group 2 - Despite the negative consumer sentiment, retail performance shows resilience, with Dollar General reporting a 4.3% year-over-year increase in same-store sales, driven by strong demand for food and daily necessities [3] - High-end department store Macy's also reported strong holiday season pre-sale data, with luxury goods sales increasing by 7.1%, indicating that high-income consumers' spending power remains intact [3] - Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect the overall PCE monthly rate for September to be 0.3%, with core PCE at 0.2%, and annual rates projected to hold at 2.9% for overall PCE and drop to 2.8% for core PCE [3]

加拿大最大房地产市场正在经历持续降温，多伦多地区地产局最新数据显示，今年11月大多伦多地区房屋销量同比下降15.8%，平均售价也出现明显下 滑。 这不仅是多伦多的现象，温哥华、卡尔加里等主要城市也呈现类似趋势。 销量与价格双双走低 根据多伦多地区地产局（TRREB）12月3日最新发布的报告，2025年11月大多伦多地区通过MLS系统完成的房屋交易量为5,010套，相比2024年11月下降 15.8%。 与此同时，新挂牌房源数量也同比下降4%，显示市场整体活跃度有所降低。 买家等待更多确定性 "当前的经济不确定性让许多多伦多买家选择观望。" TRREB 主席 Elechia Barry-Sproule 在新闻稿中指出。 她同时表示，很多家庭确实希望利用当前较低的借贷成本和更有利的售价，但他们最需要的是对长期就业前景的信心。 价格方面同样不容乐观。11月平均售价为1,039,458加元，同比下降6.4%。MLS房价指数综合基准同比下降5.8%，市场调整态势明显。 大温哥华地产局首席经济学家 Andrew Lis 对此现象解读道："库存保持健康，为买家提供了充足选择，这也促使卖家接受定价必须反映这一新现实。" 他强 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Black Friday" and "Cyber Monday" shopping events in the UK have seen a shift in consumer behavior, with shoppers becoming more pragmatic and cautious due to economic uncertainties and high living costs [3][12]. Consumer Behavior - UK consumers are exhibiting a more rational approach to spending during this year's shopping events, with many adopting a wait-and-see attitude [3]. - There has been a 7.2% decline in foot traffic to physical stores compared to the same period last year, indicating a lack of consumer confidence [5]. - Consumers are increasingly skeptical about the authenticity of discounts, with many popular items not being offered at their lowest prices during "Black Friday" [5][7]. Discount Perception - A significant portion of consumers believes that discounts are not genuine, as prices may have been artificially inflated prior to the sales [7]. - Many consumers are waiting for better deals, as they perceive that prices have increased overall [8]. Spending Intentions - Despite the cautious spending, a considerable number of consumers still plan to purchase essential items or gifts during the promotional period, although 38% indicated they might not spend during "Black Friday" [10][12]. Overall Market Trend - The overall trend reflects a more practical and value-focused consumer mindset in the face of ongoing economic pressures, which is likely to shape future shopping behaviors [12].