Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold: The news of gold being tax - free continues to ferment, causing the gold price to decline significantly. The release of the US CPI today may lead the market to bet on stagflation. If the CPI rises, the gold price will still have support. With the new dovish expectations of the Fed, the gold price may rebound. [4] - Silver: The silver price follows the gold price to fall due to the news of gold being tax - free. The recovery of domestic risk appetite provides support for the silver price, and the decline is not significantly enlarged. The commodity sentiment recovers, and the silver price is still supported. The release of the US CPI today may further push up the silver price. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review - **Gold**: US three major stock indexes fell slightly, European three major stock indexes closed mixed, US bond yields fell collectively (10 - year US bond yield fell 0.58 basis points to 4.281%), the US dollar index rose 0.24% to 98.50, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1962, and COMEX gold futures fell 2.80% to $3393.7 per ounce. [4] - **Silver**: Silver price followed the gold price to fall. US three major stock indexes fell slightly, European three major stock indexes closed mixed, US bond yields fell collectively (10 - year US bond yield fell 0.58 basis points to 4.281%), the US dollar index rose 0.24% to 98.50, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1962, and COMEX silver futures fell 2.33% to $37.645 per ounce. [6] 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The gold futures price is 779.48, the spot price is 776.19, and the basis is - 3.29, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the gold futures warehouse receipts are 36045 kg, unchanged; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position is reduced. [4][5] - **Silver**: The silver futures price is 9210, the spot price is 9187, and the basis is - 23, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 1151962 kg, with a daily decrease of 6425 kg; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position is increased. [6] 3.3. Today's Focus - 12:30: Australian policy rate, and the RBA Governor Michele Bullock holds a monetary policy press conference. - 14:00: UK's three - month ILO employment change and unemployment rate for June. - Time TBD: China's new round of refined oil price adjustment window will open. - 17:00: Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index for August, Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index for August. - 20:30: US CPI for July. - 22:00: Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin (FOMC voter in 2027) speaks. - 22:30: Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid (FOMC voter in 2025) speaks on monetary policy and economic outlook. - 02:00: US government budget for July. [15] 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The news of gold being tax - free continues to ferment, the gold price drops significantly. The market starts to bet on stagflation, and if the CPI rises, the gold price will have support. The Shanghai gold premium expands to - 1.3 yuan per gram. [4] - **Silver**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The silver price follows the gold price to fall due to the news of gold being tax - free. The recovery of domestic risk appetite provides support for the silver price, and the Shanghai silver premium remains at about 400 yuan per kg. [6] 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, and the main long position is reduced. [5] - **Silver**: The main net position is long, and the main long position is increased. [6]

转自：新华财经 新华财经纽约8月11日电（记者 刘亚南）由于市场担忧关税导致美国通胀压力升高，纽约股市三大股指 11日高开，早盘窄幅盘整，午后走弱，收盘时纽约股市三大股指均下跌。 截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日下跌200.52点，收于43975.09点，跌幅为0.45%；标 准普尔500种股票指数下跌16.00点，收于6373.45点，跌幅为0.25%；纳斯达克综合指数下跌64.62点，收 于21385.4点，跌幅为0.30%。 板块方面，标普500指数十一大板块八跌三涨。能源板块和房地产板块分别以0.79%和0.65%跌幅领跌， 必需消费品板块和非必需消费品板块分别以0.17%和0.14%涨幅领涨。 美国劳工部将于12日盘前发布7月份消费者价格指数，市场担忧7月份物价上涨。 外汇经纪商嘉盛集团资深分析师Jerry Chen表示，市场预计将于12日公布的美国7月份消费者价格指数同 比涨幅将从前一个月的2.7%升至2.8%，核心消费者价格指数涨幅预计从6月份的2.9%升至3.0%。同时， 也需要关注前值的修正情况是否会像非农数据那样爆冷。总体来看，目前的通胀水平尚且可控，但在高 关税的影响下不能排 ...

| 位及800-850附近压力位，伦敦银34-36附近支撑位及37-40附近压力位，沪银8500-8700附近支撑位及9100-9500附近压力位。（观点评 | | --- | | 分:0) | | 免责声明：宏源期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构、已具备期货交易咨询业务资格，本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开谈判。本公司对这些信息的准 | | 确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已才求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，不构成任何投资渡议。我 | | 资者依据本报告提供的信息进行期货投资所造成的一切后果、本公司搬不负责。本报告版权仅为本公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机物和个人不得以任何形式剧版、复制和发布。如 | | 门用、刊发，需注明出处为宏源期货，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。数据来源：SMM和VIND。风险提示：期市有风险，投资需谨慎! | | 王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 | | 石原則 | 贵金属日评20250811: 美俄计划换领土达成俄乌停火协议,关 ...

| 石原則 | 贵金属日评20250811: 美俄计划换领土达成俄乌停火协议,关注周二美国消费端通胀CPI | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-08-04 | 2025-08-08 | 2025-08-07 | 收盘价 | 2. 78 | 787.80 | 781. 42 | 6. 38 | 785.02 | | | | | 成交重 | 251828.00 | 271828.00 | 64.747.00 | -20,000.00 | 187081.00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量 | 220321.00 | 217630.00 | 217696.00 | 2.691.00 | 2, 625. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 0. 00 | 156.00 | 36045.00 | 36045.00 | 35889.00 | 上海黄金 | 收盘 ...

| 位及800-850附近压力位，伦敦银34-36附近支撑位及37-40附近压力位，沪银8500-8700附近支撑位及9100-9500附近压力位。（观点评 | | --- | | 分:0) | | 免责声明：宏源期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构、已具备期货交易咨询业务资格，本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开谈判。本公司对这些信息的准 | | 确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已才求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，不构成任何投资渡议。我 | | 资者依据本报告提供的信息进行期货投资所造成的一切后果、本公司搬不负责。本报告版权仅为本公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机物和个人不得以任何形式剧版、复制和发布。如 | | 门用、刊发，需注明出处为宏源期货，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。数据来源：SMM和VIND。风险提示：期市有风险，投资需谨慎! | | 王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 | | 石原則 | 贵金属日评20250811: 美俄计划换领土达成俄乌停火协议,关 ...

目前，黄金价格虽因技术性调整出现轻微回落，但整体多头结构未遭破坏。在宏观层面，美国服务业扩张 放缓、就业市场降温、企业成本上升等因素叠加关税不确定性，使得市场对"滞涨"格局与政策误判保持高 度警觉。从交易层面看，部分投资者正利用回调机会逢低布局，若特朗普的美联储提名人选偏"鸽派"，或 再度引爆金价上攻动能。 黄金：3358-60做多，防守50，目标看向3390-3400关口！空单上看3400的压制再做考虑！ 对于今日黄金走势的看法！ 黄金昨日意外收阴，算是稍稍给市场降温了一下，从日线的节奏来说，日线其实依旧保持着上升趋势，这 个很关键。力度是筑底的关键，而连续性才是趋势的延伸，特别是连阳能破前期开跌口，那么上升就稳 了。因此，今日是重点是看日线能否走出新的高点。但不管如何，这种形态中，没必要去猜回撤，就是顺 着趋势多即可。 而今日方面来说，就是看多头能否延续，这是奠定上升的关键。早盘若是不回撤给上车机会，欧盘时间点 也可以去卡多，博欧盘上升，这是最强走势，而按照位置来说。今日低点是3358-60一线。而我们的防守位 是3350不破依旧看涨！ 黄金市场多空关注焦点 本周"投资者将密切关注白宫即将对美联储人事任命 ...

Economic Overview - The latest data indicates that the US economy is facing increasing risks of stagflation, with the services PMI almost stagnating and the manufacturing PMI dropping to a near one-year low, suggesting a complex situation of slowing economic activity and persistent inflation pressures [1][4] Services Sector - In July, the services PMI fell from 50.8 in June to 50.1, significantly below the market expectation of 51.5, indicating that the expansion pace of the services sector has nearly halted [2] - The services price index rose from 67.5 in June to 69.9 in July, approaching levels seen at the end of 2022, reflecting ongoing inflation pressures in the services sector due to tariffs and immigration policies [2] - The employment index decreased from 47.2 to 46.4, indicating a contraction in hiring levels and a weakening job market [2] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI declined from 49 in June to 48 in July, falling short of the market expectation of 49.5, further exacerbating the contraction trend [3] - Although the output index showed an acceleration in expansion, the new orders index slightly rebounded but remained in the contraction zone, with employment contraction reaching a near one-year high [3] - The price index decreased from 69.7 to 64.8, indicating a slowdown in inflation pressure, yet it remains significantly above the post-pandemic average [3] Federal Reserve Policy - The PMI data reveals stagflation risks, presenting the Federal Reserve with a challenging policy decision in the third quarter, balancing a weakening job market against rising inflation due to tariffs [4] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may maintain interest rates in September but could lower rates in October and December, with year-end policy rates projected to drop to 3.75%-4% [4] - The current economic conditions, characterized by slowing growth and a pressured job market alongside persistent inflation, complicate the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path [4]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 16.39 points, a 0.45% increase, reaching 3633.99 points, with a trading volume of 707.22 billion yuan, marking a new three-year closing high [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 70.82 points, a 0.64% increase, closing at 11177.78 points, with a trading volume of 1026.847 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index increased by 15.57 points, a 0.66% rise, closing at 2358.95 points, with a trading volume of 525.173 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Strong performances were noted in sectors such as military, gaming, coal, and robotics, while previously popular sectors like biomedicine and innovative drugs experienced corrections [1] - The coal sector showed significant gains, with prices for coking coal futures returning to an upward trend and port inventory decreasing [5][6] Investment Opportunities - The coal sector's dividend yield has increased, with the China Coal Index currently yielding over 5%, making it attractive for long-term investors [7][9] - The recommendation includes investing in coal ETFs (515220) and steel ETFs (515210) to capture potential rebound opportunities under the "anti-involution" policy [5][9] Economic Outlook - Policies aimed at improving macroeconomic expectations are expected to support coal prices from both supply and demand sides [9] - The market sentiment is gradually forming a consensus on the medium to long-term confidence in the Chinese economy, driven by a shift in policy focus from quantity to price [1][4] Technical Analysis - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend, with significant participation from external funds, and the potential for further gains as the market approaches previous high points [2][4] - The likelihood of a significant correction is considered low, with various support levels in place [2][4] Gold Market Insights - The gold ETF (518800) has seen net inflows exceeding 300 million yuan in the past five days, driven by geopolitical risks and concerns over the U.S. economy [10][12] - The weakening of the dollar's credit system and the ongoing geopolitical tensions are expected to provide long-term support for gold prices [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have rebounded due to disappointing U.S. non-farm employment data, leading to a decline in the dollar and increased market risk aversion [1] - On August 4, the Shanghai gold spot price was quoted at 777.17 yuan per gram, which is a discount of 4.25 yuan per gram compared to the futures price of 781.42 yuan per gram [1] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for July showed an increase of only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 104,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [1] Group 2 - The market's focus is shifting towards U.S. economic growth expectations and labor market demand, despite a second-quarter GDP growth of 3% exceeding the expected 2.5% [2] - Personal consumption expenditure growth of 1.4% in the second quarter was slightly below expectations, indicating ongoing inflation risks [2] - The PCE index showed a year-on-year increase in June, suggesting a rebound in inflation [2] Group 3 - Haitong Futures suggests that the U.S. economy is facing stagflation concerns due to tariff impacts, limiting the Federal Reserve's monetary policy options [3] - If market risk aversion continues, gold prices are expected to rise, potentially leading silver back into an upward trend [3] - The forecast for COMEX gold prices is between $3,200 and $3,500, with a strategy to buy gold and silver on dips [3]

Core Insights - The interview highlights the significant impact of currency devaluation on gold prices, emphasizing that gold serves as a static asset that preserves purchasing power rather than generating new wealth [1][2][4] - The current low ratio of M2 money supply to gold reserves, referred to as the "fear index," suggests that gold is severely undervalued relative to the money supply, indicating potential for substantial price increases in the future [2][5] Currency and Economic Conditions - The U.S. dollar experienced a sharp decline, particularly against the Japanese yen, reflecting heightened sensitivity in currency exchange rates and a shift in focus towards gold as a safe haven [1] - Recent economic data, including higher-than-expected core PCE and disappointing non-farm payroll figures, point towards a combination of economic weakness and high inflation, reminiscent of the stagflation period of the 1970s [1][4] Gold as a Safe Haven - Gold is viewed as a hedge against the devaluation of fiat currencies, with its purchasing power remaining relatively stable over decades, unlike fiat currencies which rely on government and central bank promises [2][4] - The potential for gold prices to rise significantly is linked to the historical context of the M2 to gold reserve ratio, which is currently at 3.9%, compared to much higher levels during past economic crises [2][5] Future Projections - If the M2 money supply doubles and the gold reserve ratio returns to historical levels, gold prices could see dramatic increases, potentially reaching around $20,000 or even $51,000 if the ratio aligns with Great Depression levels [5][6] - The silver market is also expected to experience upward movement, particularly if the gold-silver ratio decreases significantly, indicating a potential surge in silver prices [6][7]