来源：伍戈经济笔记 核心观点： 1.不只是时间。即将过去的2025年，对于世界经济和全球市场而言，或是值得回味的一年，宏观基本面 和诸多资产价格之间呈现少有的异步。究其原因，供给面的冲击显著超越需求面的波动。新年能否线性 外推，延续宏大供给叙事之下的需求故事？ 2.关税冲击已递减，但其对美国经济的"滞胀"影响还将持续，加之移民政策的扰动，美联储在失业率和 通胀之间的权衡依然纠结，降息路径难言平坦。这些都使得美元未必像今年前三季度那么显著地单边贬 值，新兴市场的风险偏好或将更趋双向波动。 3.AI科技发展仍是长期宏大叙事，目前各国货币环境及产业政策都对其形成支撑。但与过往三年不同， 美国头部科技企业已面临现金流和投资回报率的权衡，资本开支虽维持扩张但增速趋于波动。此前市场 对科技企业盈利的较高预期开始向现实收敛。 4.展望未来，年初我国经济同比增速面临高基数等掣肘，逆周期政策有望逐步加码。国际经验看，超常 规举措往往与信贷等风险暴露关联，数值上我国暂不显著。鉴于低基数效应，整体物价降幅或收窄，但 市场资产定价更关注以环比为代表的真实动能。 正文： AI科技发展仍是长期宏大叙事，目前各国货币环境及产业政策都对其形 ...

阿波罗资产管理公司首席经济学家托尔斯滕.斯洛克表示，美联储官员在展望2026年时，正日益关注滞 胀风险。这种风险表现为经济增长放缓与物价上涨并存的局面。 作为该流程的一部分，FOMC与会者被要求判断通胀和失业风险相对于其基准展望是偏向上行还是下 行。最近的预测显示出了显著的变化：官员们普遍认为通胀和失业率都存在更大的上行风险，这是一种 极不寻常且令人担忧的组合。 斯洛克指出，这些评估表明，美联储担心会出现一段即使劳动力市场状况走弱、价格压力仍无法降温的 时期。这样的结果将使货币政策变得复杂，限制美联储在不加剧通胀的情况下刺激增长的能力。 尽管美联储的基准预测并未将滞胀假设为最可能发生的结果，但风险平衡情况表明决策者正在为这种可 能性做准备。对于投资者而言，这一信息似乎强调了进入2026年的经济路径可能充满挑战，增长、就业 和通胀都存在不确定性。 斯洛克的观点反映了决策者在联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议前准备的预测报告中对经济风险的描述 方式。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from DBS Group indicates a slowdown in global economic growth but suggests that a recession can be avoided. Investment strategies should align with policy and market trends while diversifying to hedge risks, with a focus on technology, Asian markets excluding Japan, investment-grade bonds, and gold [1]. Macroeconomic Core Judgments - Global economic growth is slowing due to uncertainties in tariff policies, but the U.S. can avoid recession thanks to AI-related capital expenditures, fiscal stimulus, and interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. However, inflation risks remain [1][19]. - The market is being driven by policy, with the Federal Reserve restarting its rate-cutting cycle and significant impacts from fiscal stimulus and tariff policies. The high U.S. debt level necessitates a low-interest-rate environment for financing [1]. Asset Allocation Views 1. Stock Market: Focus on Technology and Asian Markets - U.S. stock market: The technology sector is rated positively, driven by accelerated AI applications, while the overall U.S. stock market is rated neutral. The energy sector outlook is downgraded due to OPEC+ production increases suppressing oil prices [3][4]. - European stock market: Rated neutral, with improved economic growth prospects and attractive valuations, but tariffs and a stronger euro may pressure profit margins [5]. - Japanese stock market: Rated negatively due to high valuations and political uncertainties affecting policy execution, despite foreign capital inflows [6]. - Asian markets excluding Japan: Rated positively, with valuations approximately 30% lower than global averages, supported by Chinese policy stimulus, strong Indian economic growth, and resilient earnings [7]. 2. Bond Market: Preference for Short-Duration Investment-Grade Bonds - Investment-grade (IG) bonds: Rated positively, with attractive valuations in a rate-cutting cycle, focusing on 2-3 year short-duration, high-rated A/BBB bonds. Consider extending duration to 7-10 years if U.S. 10-year Treasury yields exceed 4.5% [7][8]. - High-yield (HY) bonds: Rated negatively due to historically low spreads and insufficient risk compensation, with rising default risks [8]. - Long-term bonds: Rated cautiously, as the steepening yield curve presents unfavorable risk-reward ratios [8]. 3. Foreign Exchange Market: Mild Weakening of the U.S. Dollar - U.S. dollar: Rated negatively, with a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve and fiscal concerns leading to a gradual depreciation, though the decline is not expected to be sharp due to high real yields and resilient U.S. equities [9]. - Favorable currencies: Euro (due to divergence in ECB and Fed policies) and Australian dollar (supported by improved U.S.-China trade relations) [10]. - Asian currencies: The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate moderately, while the Singapore dollar may weaken due to expectations of policy easing [11]. 4. Commodities and Alternative Investments: Focus on Hedging and Scarcity - Commodities: Overall demand is weak, with a focus on strategic commodities such as precious metals (due to safe-haven demand), rare earths (for technology/defense needs), and coffee (limited supply and tariff impacts). Oil price forecasts are downgraded due to OPEC+ production increases leading to oversupply [12]. - Gold: Rated strongly positively, supported by a weaker dollar, rate-cut expectations, ongoing central bank purchases, and de-dollarization trends, with a target of $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 [12]. - Alternative investments: Private equity, debt, and hedge funds are rated positively for providing non-market directional returns, diversifying risks, and enhancing portfolio resilience [13]. Core Investment Strategies - Leverage-based portfolio: Simultaneously allocate to income-generating assets (like investment-grade bonds and high-dividend stocks) and long-term growth assets (like technology and Asian equities) to balance returns and risks [14]. - Diversification hedging: Use gold, hedge funds, and private assets to hedge against downside risks and avoid impacts from single market volatility [14]. - Trend-following allocation: Capitalize on trends such as AI proliferation, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and valuation recovery in Asian markets while avoiding long-term bonds, high-yield debt, and weak sectors in mature markets [15].

证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 美联储重启扩表 2025年12月12日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：于军礼 联系邮箱：yujunli@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F0247894 期货交易咨询号：Z0000112 全球经济展望 【全球经济展望】 美联储降息25个基点，每月购买400亿美元短债，美联储资产负债表重新开启扩张。高盛分析师警告，当前 拉斯维加斯博彩收入下滑的消费趋势，与2008年金融危机前的早期预警信号高度相似。美国发布新版《国家安全 战略》，放弃全球霸权，将调整与中国的经济关系，重振美国经济自主地位。美联储褐皮书显示，消费者K型分 化加剧，高收入消费者支出保持韧性，但中低收入家庭正"勒紧裤腰带"。高盛指出美联储会议最大看点是鲍威尔 承认非农就业存在"系统性高估"。目前官方数据每月或虚高6万人，实际就业市场可能已陷入"月减2万"的负 增长泥潭。机构预计失业率上升将倒逼降息，市场正在押注更激进宽松。 美国回归门罗主义，在全球收缩，将对全球经济、美债、美股、美元、贵金属、工业金属等大类资产产生 颠覆式深远影响。鉴于美国连续的错误政策，全球经济正在越过顶部区域 ...

The Federal Reserve just cutting interest rates again by 25 basis points, but the real headline is that chair Jay Powell signaling the Fed may be done for now. Welcome to the Big Money Show. I'm Taylor Riggs along with my co-host Lydia who Brian Brenberg, Jackie D'Angelus, and with us for the entire hour, Fox Businesses Charlie Gasparino.Great to see you. >> Thanks for having me. >> So, this was the Fed's third straight cut, but it came with division inside the board of governors and the most disscent we've ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Decision - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 3.50% to 3.75%, marking the third consecutive cut since September and the sixth since the current easing cycle began in September 2024 [1][3] - The decision was made against a backdrop of mixed economic data, with inflation remaining above the 2% target and signs of a weakening job market [3][5] - The personal consumption expenditures price index rose by 2.79% year-on-year in September, indicating persistent inflation despite a slowing economy, complicating the Fed's decision-making [5] Group 2: Political Pressure and Internal Disagreements - President Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the rate cut, suggesting it could have been larger, reflecting ongoing political pressure on the Federal Reserve [3][7] - There were notable internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve, with three out of twelve voting members opposing the rate cut, the highest number of dissenting votes since 2019 [9] - The Fed faces a dual mandate of promoting maximum employment while maintaining price stability, making it challenging to find a balance amid high inflation and a softening job market [9] Group 3: Economic Challenges and Global Implications - The U.S. economy is grappling with structural challenges, including the impact of AI investments, which while driving growth, also threaten traditional job markets through automation [11][12] - Lowering interest rates to address job market weaknesses may inadvertently accelerate AI investments, exacerbating structural pressures in the labor market [12] - The Fed's monetary policy decisions have significant global ramifications, with potential inflationary pressures from tariffs yet to fully materialize, complicating future policy choices [14][16]

【基本面解析】 美联储此次降息尘埃落定！12月11日，美联储正式宣布将基准利率下调25个基点至3.50%-3.75%，实现 连续第三次降息，今年累计降幅达75个基点，为市场送上"预期之中的惊喜"。然而，投票结果却分歧明 显，9票支持、3票反对，创下自2019年以来反对票数最多的纪录。新任理事米兰主张更大幅度的50基点 降息，而古尔斯比和施密德则认为应维持利率不变，这场"有人嫌少，有人嫌多"的争论，展现了美联储 内部的多元观点。 政策声明中，美联储删除了"失业率较低"的表述，反映了当前就业增长放缓、失业率上升的现实。关于 未来降息路径，点阵图显示2026年预计再降25个基点，与此前预测相符。此外，美联储宣布将从12月12 日起，在30天内购买400亿美元国库券，并可能在未来几个月保持高位购买，以确保市场流动性充足。 这一系列操作旨在稳定利率，而非启动新的量化宽松。 摘要北京时间周四(12月11日)欧洲时段，美元指数止跌回升，交投于98.674附近，金价目前交投于 4212.02美元/盎司，跌幅0.36%，最高触及4247.50美元/盎司，最低触及4203.73美元/盎司。凌晨3点美联 储利率决议后，金价深蹲41 ...

Core Viewpoint - Record leasing rates and tariff concerns have led to unprecedented trading volumes, prompting investors to increase their allocation in precious metals for portfolio diversification, while adjusting the ratio of silver to gold [1] Group 1: Silver vs. Gold Performance - Over the past 12 months, silver prices surged by 92%, while gold saw a rise of approximately 56% [2] - Silver reached a 13-year high of over $35 per ounce in early June and has now approached a historical peak of nearly $63 [2] - The strong performance of silver has reignited discussions about whether it can become a reliable alternative to gold [6][7] Group 2: Investment Demand and Market Dynamics - Investment demand for silver has significantly increased, with exchange-traded product (ETP) holdings rising by about 18% as of November 6 [2][3] - The net supply-demand balance for silver is at its tightest level on record, with ETF demand increasingly impacting this imbalance [3] - The U.S. government's designation of silver as a critical mineral has added uncertainty, as details on subsequent actions are still awaited [4] Group 3: Economic Factors Influencing Precious Metals - Lower interest rates, particularly following a recent 25 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve, are expected to benefit precious metal prices [5][6] - The correlation between the Federal Reserve's easing policies and the demand for both gold and silver suggests that silver may also gain from these conditions [5][6] - The industrial demand for silver, driven by sectors such as solar energy and electric vehicles, is contributing to its strong market performance [7] Group 4: Long-term Perspectives on Silver - Silver has historically been viewed as a substitute for gold, but its recent performance has outpaced that of gold [7] - The structural supply gap in the silver market, which has persisted for five years, shows little sign of resolution, further enhancing its appeal to investors [7] - Despite silver's rising profile, reserve asset managers have not yet recognized it as a viable long-term holding, indicating a potential barrier to its acceptance as a true alternative to gold [7]

Core Viewpoint - Record leasing rates and tariff concerns have led to unprecedented trading volumes, prompting investors to increase their allocation in precious metals for portfolio diversification, while adjusting the ratio between silver and gold [1] Group 1: Silver's Performance - Over the past 12 months, silver prices have surged by 92%, compared to a 56% increase in gold prices [2] - Silver reached a 13-year high of over $35 per ounce in early June and has now approached a historical peak of nearly $63 [2] - The CEO of the Silver Institute noted that 2025 is expected to be a dramatic year for the silver market, with record prices and unprecedented liquidity tightness [2] Group 2: Investment Demand - Investment demand for silver has significantly increased, with ETP holdings rising by approximately 18% as of November 6 [2][3] - The net supply-demand balance for silver is currently at its tightest level on record, with ETF demand increasingly impacting this imbalance [3] - The decision to classify silver as a critical mineral by the U.S. government has added uncertainty, as details on subsequent actions are still awaited [4] Group 3: Economic Factors - Lower interest rates, following a recent 25 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve, have been beneficial for precious metal prices, including silver [5][6] - The correlation between the Federal Reserve's easing policies and the demand for silver is significant, with industrial demand also playing a crucial role [7] Group 4: Silver as an Alternative to Gold - The rapid rise of silver relative to gold has reignited discussions about whether silver is becoming a reliable substitute for gold [7] - Silver's strong performance is attributed to rising industrial demand and a structural supply gap that has persisted for five years [7][8] - While silver is increasingly viewed as an alternative to gold, reserve asset managers historically have not considered silver worthy of long-term holdings [8]

美联储年内第三次降息，但同时发出可能转向观望的信号。这次决议出现六年来首次三人反对票，凸显委员会内部在通胀与就业市场孰轻孰重的 问题上分歧严重。 北京时间周四凌晨，美联储以9比3的投票结果将美国联邦基金利率下调25个基点至3.5%-3.75%，为三年来最低水平。美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发 布会上表示，美联储"完全可以等待并观察经济如何发展"。 有"新美联储通讯社"之称的知名财经记者Nick Timiraos撰文称，美国物价上涨压力与劳动力市场降温并存，这对美联储来说是一个棘手的难题， 也是几十年来从未遇到过的。 他指出，美联储会后精心斟酌的声明表明，进一步降息的门槛更高，这与一年前降息后的类似转变遥相呼应。DoubleLine Capital的Jeffrey Gundlach则表示，不认为这是一次"鹰派降息"。同时他认为： 这可能是鲍威尔最后一次降息。 鲍威尔将于明年5月卸任美联储主席，此前特朗普已表示接近宣布继任者人选。 点阵图暗示降息放缓 此次美联储利率决议投票中，芝加哥联储主席Austan Goolsbee和堪萨斯城联储主席Jeff Schmid认为不应降息，而理事Stephen Miran则主张降息50 ...