Group 1: Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Stance - The policy tone has shifted to a "neutral dovish" stance compared to the July FOMC meeting, indicating a fragile balance in the labor market with rising risks of job losses [3][9][11] - Economic growth is slowing, with a real GDP growth rate of 1.2% in the first half of 2025, which is half of the 2024 rate, primarily due to a slowdown in consumer spending [10][11] - Inflation is influenced by tariffs, which are clearly visible but may be "one-time" effects, necessitating close monitoring of their transmission and accumulation [3][17][18] Group 2: Long-term Monetary Policy Framework Normalization - The long-term monetary policy framework has been revised to return to a 2% inflation target and a broad maximum employment goal, moving away from the average inflation targeting introduced in 2020 [4][22][25] - The 2025 statement serves as a retrospective confirmation of the Fed's monetary policy strategy, emphasizing the need to balance inflation and employment amid the current "stagflation" challenges [4][25][78] Group 3: Expectations and Risks of Fed Rate Cuts - The expectation for a rate cut in September has increased significantly, with implied probabilities rising from 72% to 94%, and the number of expected cuts for the year increasing from 1.9 to 2.2 [5][31][42] - The key to whether the September rate cut materializes lies not in Powell's statements but in the upcoming non-farm payroll report and inflation data [5][42][43] - The macroeconomic scenario for 2026 suggests persistent inflation and economic stabilization, but the pricing of three rate cuts may be overly optimistic, warranting caution regarding long-term bond yields and the dollar's reversal risk [5][53][60]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - Powell's speech indicates a shift to a "neutral dovish" stance, highlighting a "fragile balance" in the labor market with rising unemployment risks[2] - The U.S. economy's growth rate slowed to 1.2% in the first half of 2025, half of the 2024 rate, with average monthly job additions dropping to 35,000 from 168,000 in 2024[16] - Inflation concerns persist, with July PCE at 2.6% and core PCE at 2.9%, while tariff-induced inflation effects are evident but expected to be "one-time" adjustments[20] Group 2: Monetary Policy Framework - The Federal Reserve's long-term monetary policy framework has been revised to emphasize a 2% inflation target and broad maximum employment goals[3] - The 2025 statement reflects a return to a more traditional framework, moving away from the "average inflation targeting" introduced in 2020[24] - The Fed's dual mandate requires balancing inflation and employment risks, particularly in the context of "stagflation" challenges[3] Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - Following Powell's remarks, the implied probability of a September rate cut surged from 72% to 94%, with expected cuts increasing from 1.9 to 2.2 times in 2025[4] - The market anticipates three rate cuts by the end of 2026, up from an earlier estimate of five[4] - The key to the September rate cut's realization hinges on the upcoming non-farm payroll report and inflation data[39]

Core Viewpoint - The potential nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair by Trump raises concerns about the independence of monetary policy, with possible implications for inflation, fiscal stability, the dollar's status, and market performance [1] Group 1: Potential Impacts of a New Fed Chair - Increased risk of stagflation due to potential policy shifts [1] - Heightened fiscal concerns as a result of a politically influenced Fed [1] - Weakened dollar and capital flight if the Fed's independence is compromised [1] - Possible market turmoil leading to simultaneous declines in U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar [1] Group 2: Candidates for Fed Chair - Main candidates include Waller, Hassett, and Walsh, with Milan emerging as a potential dark horse due to his dovish stance and advocacy for reduced Fed independence [1] - Other candidates consist of current Fed officials like Bowman, Jefferson, and Logan, as well as financial institution representatives and former government economists [1] Group 3: Candidate Statements - Waller emphasizes the need for the Fed to focus on its work rather than presidential comments, suggesting a 25 basis point rate cut in July is reasonable [2] - Hassett acknowledges the importance of maintaining the Fed's independence while also advocating for a reassessment of interest rate paths [2] - Walsh supports the idea of a rate cut and expresses willingness to lead the Fed if called upon by the President [2]

Core Viewpoint - The potential nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair by Trump raises concerns about the independence of monetary policy, which could lead to increased risks of stagflation, heightened fiscal worries, a weakened dollar, capital flight, and a possible sell-off in U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar [1][6]. Candidate Profiles - Three main candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair are Waller, Hassett, and Walsh. Waller is a current Fed governor with a dovish stance and close alignment with Trump's views, which may raise questions about central bank independence [2][3]. Hassett, former NEC director, has significant economic policy experience but lacks monetary policy expertise [2]. Walsh has a diverse background in finance and government but has not served in Trump's administration [2]. Additional Candidates - Other potential candidates include current Fed officials and former government economists, with Milan emerging as a dark horse due to his advocacy for policies that could undermine Fed independence [4][5]. Nomination Process - The nomination process typically takes 3-6 months, with an average of 4 months from nomination to appointment. If Trump announces a candidate by September-October, it may raise concerns about his urgency in establishing a "shadow Fed" [5]. Potential Impacts of Reduced Independence - If a MAGA-aligned candidate is appointed, it could lead to: 1. Increased stagflation risks, reminiscent of Nixon's interference in the 1970s [6]. 2. Heightened fiscal concerns due to rising debt and deficits, potentially exacerbating fears of a debt crisis [6]. 3. A weakened dollar and capital flight as the Fed's credibility diminishes, prompting investors to seek alternative assets [6]. 4. A potential sell-off in U.S. equities, bonds, and the dollar, reflecting market sensitivity to Fed independence [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market was initially pressured by the spill - over risk of steel and aluminum tariffs, but silver prices recovered since Thursday. Trump's pressure on the Fed and potential impacts on the dollar's credit support gold prices. The Fed has differences in views on interest rate cuts, and the US macro - data shows economic resilience, keeping gold in a range - bound pattern and silver showing relative resilience [7]. - Future market trading may focus on the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire expectation and Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. The risk of stagflation remains a market concern, and the Fed's officials being intervened by the government may support gold's safe - haven demand [7]. - It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, paying attention to the unexpected results of Russia - Ukraine negotiations and the Fed's hawkish stance. Specific price ranges are given for gold and silver contracts [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The precious metals market was pressured by steel and aluminum tariffs, but silver recovered. Trump's actions and Fed's internal differences affected the market. US macro - data showed economic resilience, with the manufacturing PMI rising and employment data showing some weakness [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The US economic data fluctuates due to tariff expectations, and the employment market shows signs of cooling. The Fed's officials being intervened may support gold's safe - haven demand. Market trading will focus on the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire and Powell's speech [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term investors are advised to wait and see, paying attention to negotiation results and Fed's stance. Specific price ranges are provided for gold and silver contracts [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes**: As of August 22, 2025, COMEX silver rose 1.05% to $38.42 per ounce, while the Shanghai silver futures contract fell 0.13%. COMEX gold fell 0.35% to $3370 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold futures contract fell 0.41% [10]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of August 21, 2025, the SLV silver ETF's holdings increased 1.40% to 15278 tons, and the SPDR gold ETF's holdings decreased 0.50% to 956.77 tons [15]. - **Speculative Net Positions**: As of August 12, 2025, both COMEX gold and silver speculative net positions decreased, with gold's total and net positions falling 0.78% and 3.19% respectively, and silver's total and net positions falling 3.00% and 12.61% respectively [20]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of August 12, 2025, COMEX gold's non - commercial long positions decreased 1.40%, and short positions increased 6.30% [25]. - **Basis Changes**: As of August 21, 2025, the gold basis fell 27.68% to - $3.46 per gram, and the silver basis fell 12.50% to - $18 per kilogram [27]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of August 21, 2025, COMEX gold inventory decreased 0.18%, while Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory increased 0.83%. COMEX silver inventory increased 0.20%, and SHFE silver inventory decreased 1.50% [35] 3. Industrial Supply and Demand Silver - **Import Data**: As of July 2025, China's silver imports decreased 7.46% month - on - month, while silver ore imports increased 22.32% [39]. - **Down - stream Demand**: As of July 2025, semiconductor silver demand drove up the growth rate of integrated circuit production, with a 15% year - on - year increase [45]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2024, silver's industrial demand increased 4%, coin and net bar demand decreased 22%, and ETF net investment demand turned positive. The supply - demand gap has been narrowing, with a 26% decrease in 2024 [51][55] Gold - **Price Changes**: As of August 21, 2025, the Chinese gold recycling price rose 0.25% week - on - week, and gold jewelry prices showed mixed trends [59]. - **Demand Changes**: In Q2 2025, the World Gold Council reported a slight decline in gold ETF investment demand. Central bank gold purchases slowed, and high gold prices led to a marginal decline in gold jewelry manufacturing demand [61] 4. Macroeconomic and Options - **Dollar and Interest Rates**: The expectation of interest rate cuts decreased slightly, and the dollar strengthened this week. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread narrowed, the CBOE gold volatility increased, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio decreased. The 10 - year US break - even inflation rate remained basically flat [65][70][74] - **Central Bank Actions**: In August 2025, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by about 2.18 tons [78]

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently awaiting guidance on future monetary easing paths, with short-term gold price expectations remaining volatile due to mixed signals from macroeconomic data and upcoming central bank meetings [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Huatai Futures indicates that the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting is crucial, as Fed Chair Powell's speech may not provide clear guidance on future interest rate paths, leading to a volatile gold price outlook [1]. - Zijin Tianfeng Futures notes that the delay in interest rate cuts could lead to a more optimistic outlook for gold, especially if the economy suffers due to delayed monetary easing [1][2]. - StoneX has raised its annual average gold price forecast by 1% to $3,115 per ounce, but expects limited upside unless a "black swan" event occurs, indicating market saturation [3]. Group 2: Central Bank Influence - Five Minerals Futures highlights that geopolitical risks have temporarily eased, negatively impacting gold prices, while Powell's upcoming speech is expected to significantly influence gold and silver price movements [2]. - Heraeus analysts report a decline in central bank gold demand, with the World Gold Council noting a drop to 166.5 tons in Q2 2025, the lowest since Q2 2022, but anticipate that potential Fed rate cuts could still drive gold prices higher [4].

换资前言： 2025下半年你打算拿什么去面对自己曾经许下的宏愿？我们最初踏入这个市场，都怀揣着赚钱的梦想， 然而，一次次的锁仓，被套，亏损！在自己一次次的亏损里，套的越来越深，亏得越多了。我给不你了 太多保证，但有个词叫尽我所能，安稳盈利！ 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周一(8月18日)亚市盘中，现货黄金突然大幅攀升，目前金价升至3357美元/盎司附近，日内大涨逾20美 元，亚市早盘金价一度跌至3323.50美元/盎司。但在地缘政治风险隐现之际，金价升向3360美元/盎司。 目前投资者焦点转向美乌会谈。地缘政治的不确定性继续在推动对传统价值储藏工具黄金的避险需求方 面发挥着关键作用。美国总统特朗普和俄罗斯总统普京上周末在阿拉斯加举行了备受期待的会晤，但没 有达成乌克兰和平协议。因此，所有人的目光都转向特朗普和乌克兰总统泽连斯基周一的会晤。 本周（8月21-23日）的杰克逊霍尔研讨会是市场焦点，尤其是美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的年度演讲。 中央银行家将倾向于鸽派言论，避免鹰派立场，这可能支撑金价。会议可能影响美元走势，进而波及黄 金市场。鉴于经济日历相对清淡，杰克逊霍尔会议被视为潜 ...

摘要今日周一（8月18日）亚盘，黄金小幅高开，现报3337美元/盎司。本周金价整体跌1.8%，徘徊于 3336美元上下。8月14日数据显，7月PPI环比飙升0.9%远超预期，创2022年6月来最大涨幅；同比增 3.3%。强劲数据打击市场对美联储9月降息预期，此前超95%概率现降至92%，致金价承压下行。 今日周一（8月18日）亚盘，黄金小幅高开，现报3337美元/盎司。本周金价整体跌1.8%，徘徊于3336美 元上下。8月14日数据显，7月PPI环比飙升0.9%远超预期，创2022年6月来最大涨幅；同比增3.3%。强 劲数据打击市场对美联储9月降息预期，此前超95%概率现降至92%，致金价承压下行。 在本周（8月21日至23日）举行的杰克逊霍尔研讨会，无疑成为了市场的瞩目焦点，其中尤以美联储主 席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的年度演讲备受期待。分析师James Stanley预判，此次参会的中央银行家们大概率会倾 向于发表鸽派言论，而刻意回避鹰派立场，这种政策导向有望对金价形成有力支撑。与此同时，分析师 Colin Cieszynski也着重提到，该会议的结果极有可能左右美元汇率的走向，进而间接影响到黄金市场的 行情波动。 ...

全球贸易局势引发市场波动。世界贸易组织数据显示，2025年全球商品贸易增速预期已从2%下调至-0.2%，而国 际货币基金组织（IMF）亦将全球经济增速预测从3.3%降至2.8%，滞胀风险显著上升。与此同时，各国央行政策 分化明显：美联储连续四次"按兵不动"，欧洲三央行则选择降息以应对衰退压力，政策不确定性进一步推升市场 避险情绪，促使监管政策持续趋严。 金融科技赋能交易：速度、工具与智能化的三重升级 AC资本（ACCM）依托前沿金融交易技术，重构交易体验，显著提升决策效率与投资胜率。 极速执行与低延迟：AC资本市场（ACCM）数据中心遍布全球，流动性来自伦敦LD4、纽约NY4、新加坡SG2和 东京TY3等金融中心，专线直连数据中心与交易服务器，可以实现毫秒级且稳定的订单执行，确保在高频波动中 抢占先机。 智能辅助工具：AC资本（ACCM）引入广泛欢迎的MT5，其具备先进的金融交易功能、卓越的技术和基本面分析 工具；Autochartist自动图表分析系统，实时识别技术形态与趋势信号；结合Trading Central的宏观策略研报，帮助 投资者在美联储政策分歧或地缘事件发酵前预判市场方向；除此之外，还有跟单交 ...

金价上涨：美财长言论引发市场巨震，黄金多头狂欢 美国财政部长贝森特周三的言论如同在平静的金融市场投下了一颗巨石，引发市场剧烈震荡，黄金多头迎来狂欢时刻。他打破了数十年来美国政府 尊重美联储独立性的传统，公开呼吁美联储在9月降息50个基点。此言一出，市场对降息的预期瞬间拉满，黄金价格应声上涨。 贝森特在接受采访时表示，参考任何模型，都显示美联储应该降息150到175个基点。"我认为我们可能会迎来一系列降息，"他说道，并解释称如果 美联储官员在7月会议上知晓两天后公布的修订版就业数据，或许当时就已降息。这份8月1日发布的美国劳工统计局数据显示就业市场出现疲软迹 象，这为降息提供了新的佐证。"我猜想我们本可以在6月和7月就降息，"贝森特表达了对美联储决策滞后的不满。 然而，尽管有多重利好因素，黄金价格涨幅仍相对温和。美股持续创新高，标普500指数和纳斯达克指数周三连续第二天创下收市新高，吸引资金 流入风险资产，一定程度上削弱了黄金的避险需求。地缘政治紧张局势的潜在缓和也起到了同样的作用。特朗普与普京即将举行的会晤引发市场对 冲突降温的乐观预期。欧洲和乌克兰领导人在会晤前与特朗普进行沟通，希望推动停火而不损害乌克兰利 ...