Group 1 - The uncertainty created by tariffs is affecting the Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding interest rate cuts [1][2] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell is willing to wait for clear evidence of the impact of the trade war on prices before making any rate cuts [1] - The likelihood of a rate cut in September is perceived to be high at 63%, but some analysts believe the Fed may hold steady [1][2] Group 2 - UBS predicts that tariff levels could reach around 15% by the end of the year, contributing to moderate stagflation risks [2] - The Fed has raised its forecasts for unemployment and inflation for the end of the year, indicating concerns about economic conditions [2] - Market expectations for a rate cut this month are below 5%, but optimism for a policy easing by December is at 96% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The dollar is experiencing a slight rebound, but its underlying downtrend remains unchanged according to analysts from BBH [1] Group 1: Dollar Performance - Despite facing tariff risks, the dollar is currently only slightly above its recent lows [1] - Analysts expect stronger market resistance against the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, which will further pressure the dollar [1] Group 2: Economic Risks - Tariff policies may exacerbate stagflation risks, serving as an additional factor to depress the dollar's performance [1] - The current tariff news could act as a catalyst for the next decline in the dollar, similar to past events [1]

Core Viewpoint - The overseas market is showing signs of stagflation risk, while the Federal Reserve maintains a cautious policy with unchanged expectations for two rate cuts within the year. Domestic policies continue to support economic stability, with retail sales growth reaching a new high, indicating marginal improvement in consumption. However, a significant decline in real estate investment remains a core drag on the economy [2][16]. Group 1: Price Trends - Recent domestic and international aluminum prices have shown strong fluctuations. LME aluminum 3M opened at $2454/ton, reaching a monthly high of $2560.5/ton, with a monthly increase of $107.5/ton (4.38%). Meanwhile, domestic Shanghai aluminum opened at 20115 CNY/ton, with a monthly increase of 350 CNY/ton (1.74%) [3]. - The near-month Shanghai aluminum contract is supported by extremely low inventory and high spot premiums, while the far-month contract is pressured by weak seasonal demand and excess alumina supply, leading to a pessimistic outlook for future prices [5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - China's electrolytic aluminum production remains stable and high, with strong support from the passenger vehicle market, despite weak real estate data. The current spot price of electrolytic aluminum is in a premium state [7]. - The domestic bauxite market has seen a slight price increase, currently quoted at 508 CNY/ton, with supply tightening due to seasonal rains and environmental inspections [8]. - The average theoretical cost of aluminum is 18374.51 CNY/ton, with an average profit of 3476 CNY/ton [10]. Group 3: Inventory and Consumption - As of July 3, 2025, aluminum ingot social inventory stands at 456,000 tons, while aluminum rod inventory is at 163,000 tons [10]. - In May 2025, the operating rate for aluminum plate and strip enterprises was 73.00%, while the operating rate for aluminum rod and wire enterprises was 63% [13]. - The automotive market shows strong growth, with May production and sales reaching 2.649 million and 2.686 million units, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 11.6% and 11.2% [14]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The market outlook indicates that the traditional consumption will be suppressed by the approaching off-season, and the ongoing weakness in real estate will continue to be a challenge. However, low inventory levels and ongoing domestic growth policies are expected to provide some resilience to aluminum prices [19].

Group 1 - The U.S. government is pushing for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve to mitigate potential economic recession risks caused by tariff policies [1][2] - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill aims to stimulate the economy by increasing government debt and potentially lowering interest costs through rate cuts [2][3] - If the Federal Reserve does not cut rates, it may lead to a significant increase in the federal deficit, while premature rate cuts could trigger inflation and reduce demand for U.S. Treasury bonds [2][3] Group 2 - The depreciation of the U.S. dollar, which has fallen approximately 10.8% this year, is increasing inflationary pressures due to tariffs [2][3] - Historical data suggests that a weaker dollar combined with high tariffs will likely impact U.S. prices, as seen in previous administrations [3][4] - Concerns are rising regarding the quality of U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, with an increase in estimated data affecting inflation accuracy [4] Group 3 - Recent employment data shows a significant increase in non-farm payrolls, indicating that the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates may be justified [4] - The ongoing conflict between the White House and the Federal Reserve could introduce more uncertainty into the market, particularly with the potential impact of immigration policies on employment data [4]

Group 1 - The current spot gold price has dropped below $3320.00 per ounce, with a daily decline of 1.18%, while COMEX gold futures are reported at $3333.3 per ounce, down nearly 0.80% [1] - U.S. Treasury yields have surged, with short-term bonds leading the decline; the 2-year and 5-year yields have increased by nearly 10 basis points, and the 10-year yield has jumped by 5.5 basis points [3][4] - The ADP employment report for June unexpectedly showed a decrease of 33,000 jobs, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, contrary to the expected increase of 98,000 jobs [6] Group 2 - The likelihood of a rate cut in July is nearly zero, with the Federal Reserve expected to pause its actions during the summer; employment data is crucial for policy adjustments [6][7] - Global geopolitical conflicts and the trend of de-dollarization are prompting central banks to increase gold holdings, with gold ETFs expected to continue purchasing gold [7] - The rare metals supply advantage in China's manufacturing, particularly in military-related sectors, is expected to benefit leading companies in rare earth metals, as supply-demand tensions increase [7] - The precious metals market is anticipated to benefit from the weakening of the U.S. dollar credit system and increased demand for safe-haven assets, with gold prices expected to rise [8]

近期，美国经济数据发布后引起了社会的广泛关注。根据美国商务部最新出炉的报告，今年第一季度，美国经济出人意料地按年率计算萎缩了0.5%，这一 数据比先前预估的-0.2%更为糟糕，也是自2022年第一季度以来，美国经济首次经历季度性负增长。这一消息无疑加深了市场对美国经济增长动力的担忧， 同时也揭示了关税政策可能对数据产生的扭曲效应。 本次GDP终值的下调，主要原因是消费者支出与出口数据的向下调整。作为美国经济的重要引擎，第一季度个人消费支出的增速显著放缓至0.5%，远低于 去年第四季度的4%，创下了自2021年以来的最低增速。与此同时，进口激增37.9%，导致净出口对GDP的拖累高达4.7个百分点，这反映出企业为了应对未 来可能的关税上调，采取了提前囤货的策略。 尽管进口数据的调整在一定程度上缓解了消费疲软带来的负面影响，但美国经济整体仍然呈现出需求放缓的趋势。第一季度国内需求增长率从初值的3.0% 大幅下调至1.9%，而联邦支出的降幅更是达到了4.6%，这是自2022年以来的最大降幅。核心PCE物价指数终值上调至3.5%，显示出通胀压力依然巨大，进 一步加剧了市场对滞胀风险的忧虑。 美国劳动力市场的降温同样引 ...

Group 1: Global Trade and Economic Outlook - The World Trade Organization has revised the global goods trade growth forecast for 2025 from 2% to -0.2%, indicating a significant downturn in trade activity [1] - The International Monetary Fund has also lowered its global economic growth forecast from 3.3% to 2.8%, highlighting rising stagflation risks [1] - Central bank policies are diverging, with the Federal Reserve maintaining its stance while three European central banks have opted for interest rate cuts to combat recession pressures, increasing market uncertainty [1] Group 2: Investment Platform Requirements - Investors need trading platforms that offer both flexibility and security to navigate the complexities of the financial market [3] - An effective trading platform should leverage technological innovation and strict compliance to create a risk "moat" for investors [3] Group 3: AC Capital Markets (ACCM) Offerings - ACCM provides a comprehensive asset coverage and a two-way trading mechanism to offer risk diversification and enhanced returns amid market volatility [4] - The platform includes a diverse range of products such as forex, precious metals, indices, and commodities, allowing investors to utilize leverage up to 1:800 and trade with competitive spreads [4] - ACCM supports both long and short trading strategies, enabling profit opportunities regardless of market direction [4] Group 4: Technological Advancements in Trading - ACCM enhances trading experiences through cutting-edge financial technology, improving decision-making efficiency and investment success rates [6] - The platform features global data centers for low-latency order execution, ensuring rapid response in high-frequency trading environments [6] - ACCM incorporates advanced trading tools like MT5, Autochartist, and Trading Central to assist investors in market predictions and strategy development [6] Group 5: Future Investment Landscape - Despite ongoing global trade challenges, ACCM identifies emerging short-term investment opportunities through product innovation and technological empowerment [8] - The platform aims to become a central hub for wealth management as supply chain regionalization and digital currency systems evolve [8]

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy contracted by 0.5% in Q1 2025, significantly down from previous estimates, primarily due to tariff policies leading to increased imports and inflation concerns [1][3] - Analysts predict that inflation rates in the U.S. will surge starting June, with a 40% probability of the economy entering a recession in the second half of the year [3][4] Tariff Impact - The current effective tariff rate in the U.S. hovers around 15%, with a potential GDP growth slowdown of 0.25%-0.75% for every 5%-10% increase in tariffs [3][4] - The inflation effects of tariffs may be delayed but are expected to manifest in the latter half of the year, raising concerns about economic pain [3][4] Federal Reserve Dynamics - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated that unprecedented tariff policies complicate inflation predictions and decisions on interest rate cuts [5][7] - Trump is reportedly seeking a "compliant" successor to Powell, with potential candidates including Kevin Walsh and others, aiming to influence monetary policy ahead of Powell's term ending [7][9] Dollar's International Standing - The U.S. dollar index has depreciated over 10% this year, with predictions of an additional 5.7% decline in the next 12 months due to economic uncertainties and geopolitical issues [12][14] - There is a structural decline in international investors' appetite for U.S. Treasury bonds, with the debt-to-GDP ratio reaching 123%, raising concerns about the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [12][14]

Macroeconomic Overview - The conflict between Iran and the U.S. reached a ceasefire after 12 days, with Iran's retaliatory attacks on U.S. bases not disrupting energy transport, leading to a market reaction where gold and oil prices reversed their gains [1] - Gold prices closed at $3368.98 per ounce, while U.S. crude oil prices shifted from a 5% increase to a 9% decline [1] - The Federal Reserve's Vice Chairman Bowman unexpectedly hinted at a possible rate cut in July, causing U.S. Treasury yields to drop and the dollar index to retreat, but this did not support gold prices [1] - The U.S. economy faces inflation and growth slowdown pressures, with potential for oil prices to surge if Middle Eastern tensions escalate, increasing stagflation risks [1] - Short-term ceasefire and Fed divergence are suppressing gold prices, while geopolitical risks and rate cut expectations may support gold in the medium to long term [1] Dollar Index - The dollar index experienced a high of 99.399 and a low of 98.32, closing at 98.361, indicating a volatile trading session [2] - The weekly analysis shows resistance around the 100 level, suggesting a bearish outlook for the dollar index in the medium term [2] - Key support for the dollar index is at 98.60, with the price closing below this level, indicating potential for further declines [2] Gold Market - Gold prices showed a downward trend, with a high of $3396.68 and a low of $3346.92, closing at $3368.94 [4] - The market is currently in a phase of oscillating declines, with significant support at the $3280 level [5] - The price must break above $3405 to shift the current bearish sentiment, with immediate focus on the $3360 and $3365 resistance levels [7] Euro/USD - The Euro/USD pair showed an upward trend, with a low of 1.1452 and a high of 1.1581, closing at 1.1573 [7] - The market is supported at the 1.1300 level, indicating a long-term bullish outlook, while the 1.1500 level is critical for short-term movements [7] - Caution is advised until the recent high of 1.16305 is breached, as the market may remain in a consolidation phase [9]

Domestic Policy News - The second China-Central Asia Summit was held, emphasizing the "China-Central Asia spirit" and the construction of a community with a shared future [10][11] - Premier Li Qiang highlighted the importance of innovation-driven development during his visit to Jiangsu, aiming to expand effective demand and stimulate high-quality economic growth [12][13] Overseas Policy News - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change, reflecting a cautious approach to economic uncertainties [14][20] - The Fed's semiannual monetary policy report indicated a stable economic expansion but acknowledged persistent inflation risks, particularly from tariffs and geopolitical tensions [16][20] Equity Market Analysis - A-shares experienced a slight decline, with the CSI 500 and ChiNext indices falling by 1.76% and 1.66% respectively, amid ongoing uncertainties in US-China negotiations [22][23] - The central bank announced eight significant financial opening measures during the Lujiazui Forum, aimed at enhancing financial cooperation and high-quality development [23][24] Fixed Income Market Analysis - The central bank's actions led to a loosening of the funding environment, with the DR007 rate dropping below 1.5% [3][22] Commodity Market Analysis - The commodity market saw fluctuations, with non-ferrous metals rebounding and oil prices experiencing slight volatility [3][4] Forex Market Analysis - The US dollar index rebounded slightly, closing at 98.76, influenced by the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates [4][20] Major Asset Rotation Outlook - The report suggests a defensive approach in equity markets, emphasizing the importance of gold and convertible bonds as potential investment opportunities [4][20]