Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products of Guotai Junan Futures on December 24, 2025, covering multiple agricultural product futures including palm oil, soybean oil, etc. [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil: Short - term rebound with limited upside [2] - Soybean oil: Driven little by US soybeans, mainly operate within a range [2] - Soybean meal: Overnight US soybeans slightly declined, Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate [2] - Soybean: Spot prices are stable, and the futures market fluctuates [2] - Corn: Focus on spot prices [2] - Cotton: Futures prices fluctuate strongly, pay attention to the overall market sentiment [2] - Eggs: Fluctuate and adjust [2] - Pigs: Secondary fattening is relatively active [2] - Peanuts: Focus on oil mills' purchases [2] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 8,486 yuan/ton with a 0.86% increase, and night - session closing price was 8,484 yuan/ton with a - 0.02% change. Soybean oil's day - session closing price was 7,772 yuan/ton with no change, and night - session closing price was 7,754 yuan/ton with a - 0.23% decrease. [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia's 2026 biofuel quota is 15.646 million kiloliters, similar to 2025. It plans to increase the palm oil blending ratio to 50% (B50) from next year. The rainy season in Indonesia is expected to return to normal in 2026. [5][6] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean meal 2605's day - session closing price was 2,745 yuan/ton with a + 0.18% increase, and night - session closing price was 2,756 yuan/ton with a + 0.51% increase. DCE soybean 2605's day - session closing price was 4,104 yuan/ton with a - 0.32% decrease, and night - session closing price was 4,118 yuan/ton with a + 0.34% increase. [9] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 23, CBOT soybean futures closed mixed. As of December 11, 2025, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 2,396,198 tons, a 68.3% increase from the same period last year. The estimated output of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 177 million tons. [9][11] Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of C2603 was 2,189 yuan/ton with a - 0.41% change, and C2601's day - session closing price was 2,210 yuan/ton with a - 0.54% decrease, and night - session closing price was 2,213 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase. [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: The northern corn bulk shipping port price decreased by 10 yuan/ton in some areas, and the Guangdong Shekou price also decreased by 10 yuan/ton. [14] Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2605's day - session closing price was 14,140 yuan/ton with a 0.50% increase, and night - session closing price was 14,135 yuan/ton with a - 0.04% decrease. CY2603's day - session closing price was 20,185 yuan/ton with a 0.37% increase, and night - session closing price was 20,210 yuan/ton with a 0.12% increase. [16] - **Macro and Industry News**: The domestic cotton spot market was actively traded, and the price of pure cotton yarn was stable with an upward trend. ICE cotton futures rose slightly due to the weakening US dollar. [17][18] Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of egg 2601 was 3,027 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 1.01% decrease, and egg 2602 was 2,876 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 0.72% decrease. [23] - **No macro and industry news provided** Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 11,680 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 11,800 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 11,960 yuan/ton. [27] - **Market Information**: Some companies registered warehouse receipts, and the Ministry of Commerce determined that imported pork and by - products from the EU were dumped. [28][29] Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of PK601 was 8,068 yuan/ton with a 0.47% increase, and PK603 was 7,950 yuan/ton with a - 0.08% decrease. [32] - **Spot Market Focus**: The prices in Henan, Jilin, Liaoning, and Shandong were basically stable, with low supply and demand [33]

研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 12 月 23 日 油脂日报 国内市场（P/Y/OI）：宏观情绪较好，棕榈油技术性反弹，今日棕榈油期价震荡小幅 收涨。截至 2025 年 12 月 19 日（第 51 周），全国重点地区棕榈油商业库存 70 万吨，环比 上周增加 4.73 万吨，增幅 7.25%，近期棕榈油处于历史同期中性水平。产地报价偏稳运行， 进口利润倒挂有所扩大，目前约在-300 附近。基差偏稳运行，关注后期国内买船及到港情况。 短期棕榈油仍缺乏明显驱动，但经历了大幅下跌后目前出现技术性反弹，可考虑逢低试多博 反弹，但反弹高度或有限，方向上维持反弹至区间上沿后逢高空的思路。 今日豆油期价震荡收平。上周油厂大豆实际压榨量 213.06 万吨，开机率为 58.61%，较 1 / 5 研究员：张盼盼 期货从业证号： F03119783 投资咨询证号： 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/23 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views Oils and Fats - The short - term outlook for palm oil is positive, with potential for further rebound. However, domestic Dalian palm oil futures face resistance at 8,500 yuan. The fundamentals of soy oil are currently bearish, and the CBOT soy oil is expected to have limited upward movement. Rapeseed oil has seen a short - term rebound, but the upward momentum may be restricted due to a bearish sentiment in the domestic oils and fats market [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - The spot price of pigs is stable, and the market trend is slightly stronger due to increased demand around the Winter Solstice. The futures market is mainly focused on the post - Spring Festival market, and the futures price is expected to find support at around 11,000 [3][4]. Meal (Soybean and Rapeseed) - The domestic soybean meal market remains loose, with limited downward space but no clear upward drivers. Attention should be paid to the performance of the main contract around 2,750 [9]. Jujube - The jujube spot market has weak demand and supply exceeds demand, causing the futures price to be under pressure. The futures price may rebound slightly if there is a boost in the Spring Festival consumption; otherwise, it will continue to decline [12]. Apple - The apple market has weak demand, slow inventory clearance, and limited upward potential for the futures price. As the festival approaches, the market sentiment may improve, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions [15][19]. Corn and Corn Starch - The corn market may maintain a weak pattern in the short term, but the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the selling sentiment and policy releases [22]. Cotton - Internationally, the U.S. cotton market will remain volatile. Domestically, the supply pressure of cotton is gradually easing, and the demand is weakening. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate within a relatively strong range, but there is limited upward momentum [25][26]. Sugar - The global sugar supply outlook is loose, which restricts the rebound of the raw sugar price. The domestic sugar market is expected to remain weak and volatile next week, and it is advisable to short on rallies [29]. Eggs - The egg market still has a pattern of "strong supply and weak demand", and the market sentiment is not optimistic. The price is expected to be weak and volatile this week [31][32]. Group 3: Summary by Related Categories Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On December 19, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,240 yuan, down 1.79% from the previous day. The futures price of Y2605 was 7,952 yuan, down 1.05%. The basis was 288 yuan, down 18.64% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong on December 19 was 8,250 yuan, down 1.79%. The futures price of P2605 was 8,280 yuan, down 0.93%. The basis was - 30 yuan, down 171.43%. The inventory decreased, and the import profit was - 584 yuan, down 31.59% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu on December 19 was 9,270 yuan, down 2.42%. The futures price of OI605 was 8,929 yuan, down 2.33%. The basis was 341 yuan, down 4.75% [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures Indicators**: The basis of the main contract was 305 yuan, down 28.24%. The price of the live - hog 2605 contract was 11,905 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The 3 - 5 spread was - 560 yuan, up 6.67% [3]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices in different regions showed slight fluctuations, with prices in Henan, Sichuan, and other regions decreasing, and prices in Hebei increasing [3]. - **Spot Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume decreased by 1.19%, the weekly piglet price decreased by 6.06%, and the monthly fertile sow inventory decreased by 1.12%. The self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits increased [4]. Meal (Soybean and Rapeseed) - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3,100 yuan. The futures price of M2605 was 2,741 yuan, up 0.22%. The basis was 359 yuan, down 1.64% [9]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,420 yuan, up 1.68%. The futures price of RM2605 was 2,337 yuan, up 0.60%. The basis was 83 yuan, up 45.61% [9]. - **Soybean**: The spot price in Harbin remained unchanged at 3,940 yuan. The futures price of the soybean main contract was 4,105 yuan, up 1.31%. The basis was - 165 yuan, down 47.32% [9]. Jujube - The futures prices of different contracts decreased, with the main contract (2605) at 8,820 yuan, down 0.84%. The spot prices in Cangzhou also decreased slightly. The basis increased, and the inventory remained stable [12]. Apple - The main contract (2605) price was 9,149 yuan, down 0.54%. The basis was - 949 yuan, up 50 yuan. The market arrival volume in some markets remained stable, and the national cold - storage inventory did not change [15]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of the corn 2603 contract remained unchanged at 2,192 yuan. The Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port decreased by 0.44%. The basis decreased by 10.20%. The long - short spread increased by 2.78% [22]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the corn starch 2603 contract was 2,484 yuan, down 0.32%. The basis increased by 10.26%. The 3 - 5 spread decreased by 2.13% [22]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of the cotton 2605 contract was 14,070 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. The ICE U.S. cotton main contract price decreased by 0.06%. The 5 - 1 spread decreased by 100.00% [25]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price and the 3128B index increased slightly. The industrial and commercial inventories increased, and the import volume increased [25][26]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5,225 yuan/ton, up 0.93%. The ICE raw sugar main contract price increased by 1.01%. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 11.24% [29]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning increased by 0.38%, and the price in Kunming decreased by 0.29%. The national sugar production and sales decreased year - on - year [29]. Eggs - The price of the egg 01 contract was 3,049 yuan/500KG, down 0.91%. The egg - laying hen inventory is expected to continue to decline slowly, and the market supply - demand contradiction has been marginally alleviated, but the "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern remains [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The USDA's December report met market expectations, and the market continues to focus on the sowing and weather conditions of soybeans in South America. The expected increase in South American soybean production may put pressure on the supply from March to May next year [6]. - The slow progress of China's procurement of US soybeans and the state - reserve soybean auctions have affected the domestic supply. Weak demand due to breeding losses and high inventory levels also pose challenges to the market [6]. - For rapeseed, reduced imports have led to near - zero domestic rapeseed inventory, and the end of the aquaculture demand peak has weakened demand support. The potential resumption of Canadian rapeseed imports may put short - term pressure on the market [6]. - In the oil market, raw material pressure persists for soybean oil, and the slowdown in overseas biodiesel themes and the substitution effect between oils have an impact on the market. For palm oil, high inventory levels in Malaysia and China have overshadowed the impact of the seasonal production decline. For rapeseed oil, the uncertainty of Canadian imports and the potential relaxation of import restrictions have influenced the market [38][40][41]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The market is affected by factors such as South American soybean production prospects, slow US soybean procurement in China, state - reserve auctions, weak demand, and high inventory [6]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Reduced imports, the end of the aquaculture demand peak, and potential Canadian imports are the main influencing factors [6]. 3.2. Oils - **Soybean Oil**: Raw material pressure exists, and the slowdown in the biodiesel theme and the substitution effect between oils have affected the market. Although there is some support from the year - end demand peak, the supply - demand situation remains complex [38][39]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's December inventory exceeded expectations, and China's high - level inventory has offset the impact of the seasonal production decline. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel plan has little short - term impact [40]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: High import tariffs, potential relaxation of Canadian import restrictions, reduced imports leading to inventory reduction, and demand substitution have influenced the market [41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the pesticide industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [2][39]. Core Insights - The demand for glufosinate-ammonium is expected to continue growing due to improved cost-effectiveness and accelerated registration processes overseas [2]. - The glufosinate-ammonium industry has seen significant improvements in operational rates and inventory levels, with production increasing by 27.85% year-on-year from January to November 2025 [5][6]. - The report highlights the increasing global acceptance of glufosinate-ammonium, particularly in key agricultural markets such as the US, Canada, and Brazil, where registration certificates have expanded rapidly [13][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Significant Improvement in Cost-Effectiveness of Glufosinate-Ammonium - The unit efficacy of glufosinate-ammonium is approximately 3.5 times that of glyphosate, with refined glufosinate-ammonium reaching about 6.3 times, making it more cost-effective despite higher nominal prices [8][11]. 2. Rapid Expansion of Overseas Registration Certificates for Glufosinate-Ammonium - The US saw a surge in registration certificates from 13 in 2019 to 90 in 2020, maintaining a high level in subsequent years, while Brazil and Canada have also shown significant growth in registrations [13][16]. 3. Biodiesel Demand Enhancing Economic Viability of Canola Cultivation - Canola-related applications account for approximately 39% of glufosinate-ammonium's downstream demand, driven by the increasing economic viability of canola cultivation in the context of biodiesel production [22][23]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on glufosinate-ammonium and refined glufosinate-ammonium industries, particularly companies like Lier Chemical and Hebei Chengxin, which are expected to seize opportunities in the accelerating industry growth [29].

Group 1 - Malaysia has lowered its January crude palm oil reference price and reduced the export tax to 9.5% [1] - China's palm oil imports in November reached 330,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 97.8%, while the cumulative import volume from January to November was 2.29 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6% [1] - Malaysia's palm oil export volume from December 1-15 is estimated at 435,882 tons, a 30.39% increase compared to 334,295 tons in the same period last month [1] Group 2 - Since mid-December, the palm oil market has shown a significant downward trend due to inventory pressure, weak exports, and macroeconomic factors [3] - Malaysia's palm oil inventory surged by 13% month-on-month to 2.84 million tons, the highest level in six and a half years, with expectations of further inventory accumulation increasing selling pressure [3] - Weak demand from the consumption side, including a significant reduction in India's vegetable oil imports in November and a sharp decrease in domestic palm oil transaction volumes, is contributing to the lack of support for demand [3] Group 3 - The overall palm oil market is expected to continue a weak trend due to external pressures from Southeast Asia, upcoming canola seed crushing, and disturbances from state soybean auctions and canola seed imports [4] - A recovery in overnight crude oil prices has eased market sentiment, but the palm oil sector is still anticipated to maintain a weak trajectory in the short term [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [10]. Core Insights - The recent approval of Germany's RED III legislation is anticipated to boost the demand for HVO (Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil) and UCO (Used Cooking Oil) [4]. - The legislation raises greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets for gasoline and diesel to 19% by 2030, significantly higher than the EU's unified target of 14.5% [4]. - The cancellation of double counting for advanced biofuels is expected to convert "accounting quotas" into "physical volumes," providing a substantial increase in demand for HVO and UCO [4]. - The removal of POME (Palm Oil Mill Effluent) from compliance eligibility is set to take effect in 2027, although its impact is considered limited due to the declining share of palm oil in EU biodiesel feedstocks [4]. - The report suggests a positive outlook for biodiesel across road transport, shipping, and aviation, with specific companies recommended for investment: Shandong Hi-Speed, Hainan Xinneng, Longkun Technology, and Weili [4]. Summary by Sections RED III Legislation Impact - The RED III directive requires EU member states to implement national laws by May 21, 2025, with Germany's legislation already in place [4]. - The overall renewable energy target for the EU is set to reach at least 42.5% by 2030, with a focus on increasing the share of renewable energy in the transport sector to 29% [5]. Company Valuation - Key companies in the sector have varying market capitalizations and profit forecasts, with Shandong Hi-Speed projected to have a net profit of 1.05 billion in 2025, while Hainan Xinneng is currently not forecasted to generate profit [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The pricing logic of agricultural products has shifted, with policy and geopolitics taking precedence, followed by cost, and supply - demand coming third due to complex international trade environments and increased trade conflicts [8][114]. - In 2026, the overall supply of agricultural products is expected to increase, but the growth rate will slow down. There are potential opportunities in specific sectors and stages, while market volatility will intensify [114]. - For different agricultural products, such as oilseeds, grains, livestock, and eggs, their supply - demand structures, market trends, and influencing factors vary, and corresponding investment strategies and risk points need to be considered. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oilseeds and Oils 3.1.1 2025 Market Review - Domestic soybean meal fluctuated, with a wider spot price range than the futures price. The price of oils declined from a high level, with palm oil leading the market, and the soybean - palm oil price spread widened and adjusted [7][11][19]. 3.1.2 2026 Market Analysis - The pricing of oilseeds is mainly influenced by policy and geopolitics. The global supply - demand of oilseeds is approaching balance in 2025/26, but there are opportunities for phased market movements due to uncertain factors such as weather and policies [8][114]. - Global oilseed production is expected to increase at a slower pace, with soybeans decreasing and rapeseed and sunflower seeds increasing. The consumption of oilseeds is expected to be strong, mainly driven by bio - diesel policies and feed demand [29][35]. - The production of palm oil may exceed expectations, driven by weather and technological factors. The biodiesel policies of the US and Indonesia are uncertain, which will affect the demand for oils [67][83]. - There are differences in the forecasts of global vegetable oil trade volume by different institutions. The inventory of vegetable oils is expected to decline slightly, and the market lacks a clear driving force [106][110]. 3.1.3 Price Outlook - If South American soybean production decreases by more than 10 million tons, the global soybean price center will move up. If South American production is stable and China actively purchases soybeans, the market will be relatively loose. If China purchases cautiously, the supply - demand contradiction will intensify [114]. 3.2 Corn 3.2.1 2025 Market Review - Domestic and international corn futures prices first rose and then fell. The domestic market was mainly affected by policies, experiencing a roller - coaster ride from state - owned grain reserve purchases to imported corn auctions [120][123]. 3.2.2 2026 Market Analysis - Global corn production is expected to have a good harvest, with increased production in the US and China. The demand for feed and deep - processing is expected to decline slightly due to losses in the breeding industry [121][164]. - The inventory of corn is expected to increase, with an increase in trade - link inventory and expected imports of substitutes [121]. 3.2.3 Future Concerns - The relative changes between the expected high - yield and carry - over inventory will affect the corn price [186]. - The increase in Xinjiang's corn production will change the national corn trade pattern [191]. - The impact of bio - energy policies on US corn exports and the guidance of agricultural policies on the corn market [195][197]. 3.2.4 Price Outlook - In 2026, the international corn market supply is expected to increase, and the domestic market will face pressure from a large harvest and increased imports. The price is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half of the year [206]. 3.3 Pork 3.3.1 2025 Market Review - The supply of pork increased in 2025, leading to a decline in prices. The market was affected by factors such as secondary fattening and policy regulation [208][212]. 3.3.2 2026 Market Analysis - The number of sows in stock decreased in October 2025, which will lead to a reduction in pig slaughter in the second half of 2026, resulting in a supply contraction [209][220]. - Pig prices are expected to be weak first and then strong, and industry profits are expected to recover. Policy guidance and supply - demand adjustment will interact to affect pig prices [209]. 3.3.3 Price Outlook - In 2026, the pig market is expected to experience a price reversal. After the Spring Festival, pig prices may decline seasonally, but they will rebound after May as supply decreases and demand recovers [266]. 3.4 Eggs 3.4.1 2025 Market Review - The spot price of eggs was under pressure from the supply side and showed a weak performance throughout the year, with obvious seasonal patterns [267][271]. 3.4.2 2026 Market Analysis - The inventory of laying hens has slightly decreased but remains at a high level. The willingness of farmers to replenish the flock has decreased, and the willingness to cull old hens has increased, which will help alleviate over - capacity [283][285]. - Feed raw material prices are expected to be weak, reducing the cost support for egg prices. The terminal demand for eggs maintains normal seasonal patterns without new bright spots [268]. 3.4.3 Price Outlook - In 2026, egg prices are expected to follow seasonal patterns. With the expected slow decline in production capacity, egg prices are expected to improve, but uncertainties in farmers' replenishment and culling decisions need to be monitored [308][310].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Palm Oil**: In 2025, the palm oil market showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with the center of the price shifting upwards. In 2026, the global supply - demand of palm oil is expected to remain in a tight - balance state. The price is likely to show a fluctuating trend with a rising center, ranging from 8300 to 9800. Domestic supply and demand are expected to continue the double - weak trend [2][3][153]. - **Cuisine Oils and Meals**: In 2025, the rapeseed oil futures fluctuated upwards, while the rapeseed meal futures showed wide - range fluctuations. In 2026, the global supply of rapeseed is expected to increase significantly, and the supply - demand outlook will turn loose. However, the domestic supply will be tight. The prices of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate, with the price range of rapeseed oil from 9000 to 10100 and that of rapeseed meal from 2200 to 2800 [3][4][156]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 H1 Market Trend Review - **Palm Oil**: The price experienced significant drops, rebounds, and fluctuations due to factors such as the delay of Indonesia's B40 policy, changes in export demand, and geopolitical situations [17][18]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price showed a trend of decline, rise, and then decline again, affected by factors like import policies, geopolitical situations, and inventory changes [21][22]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price fluctuated greatly, influenced by factors such as changes in soybean supply, trade relations, and seasonal demand [26][27]. 3.2 Production, Supply, and Import - Export of Oil Crops - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia's production increased significantly, and Malaysia's production remained high even in the off - season. Overseas demand was at an average level, and Indonesia's B40 policy benefited domestic biodiesel demand. China's import profit was low, and the import volume was low [29][35][50]. - **Cuisine Oils and Meals**: The supply of old - season rapeseed was tight, and the inventory - consumption ratio decreased slightly. After the anti - dumping determination of Canadian rapeseed, Australia's rapeseed gradually replaced it as an import source [58][71]. 3.3 Oil Mill Pressing, Consumption, and Demand - **Biodiesel Consumption**: Diesel strength improved biodiesel blending profit, and Indonesia's B40 policy advanced well. The EPA's proposed rule indicated an unexpected increase in US biodiesel, and its actual implementation needs attention [80][81]. - **Palm Oil Domestic Inventory**: Supply turned loose, while demand remained weak. In the first half of 2025, it was in a double - weak state, and the inventory increased in the second half [82]. - **Cuisine Oils and Meals Production, Operation, and Consumption Demand**: Coastal oil mills were close to shutdown but were expected to recover at the end of the year. Supply lacked increment, but inventory was still high due to weak demand [92][100]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Its Interpretation - **Global Rapeseed**: In the 2024/25 season, production decreased, and inventory tightened. In the 2025/26 season, production is expected to increase, and supply will turn loose [107][108]. - **Domestic Rapeseed**: In the 2024/25 season, production and import increased. In the 2025/26 season, production is expected to increase slightly, but import will be restricted, and supply will be tight [109][110]. - **Rapeseed Oil and Rapeseed Meal**: In the 2025/26 season, domestic production of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is expected to decline, and there will be supply gaps [114]. - **Palm Oil**: In the 2024/25 season, global production and demand increased, and inventory decreased. In the 2025/26 season, supply and demand are expected to increase, and inventory will accumulate slightly [116]. 3.5 Seasonal Analysis - **Palm Oil**: Its price is affected by factors such as oil production and festival consumption. The price usually drops in March - April and June and rises in the fourth quarter [119]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Its price has seasonal fluctuations related to weather and consumption. It rises in winter and drops in May - June [122]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Its consumption is seasonal, with high demand from May to August and low demand in winter [125]. 3.6 Technical Analysis - **Palm Oil**: The medium - and long - term upward trend remains, and attention should be paid to the support and resistance levels in Q1 2026 [128]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price has fallen to the annual average line, and attention should be paid to the market performance near the annual line [132]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It maintained a box - shock trend, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower edge of the shock range [137]. 3.7 Option Analysis - **Palm Oil Option**: Volatility remained stable, and the market expects the short - term price to fluctuate between 8400 and 9000 [140]. - **Rapeseed Oil Option**: Volatility decreased compared to last year, and the market has obvious differences in the future price, with the range from 8200 to 11200 [144]. - **Rapeseed Meal Option**: Volatility decreased, and market participation declined. The market's price prediction range is from 2300 to 2600 [148][150]. 3.8 Full - Text Summary and Future Market Outlook - **Palm Oil**: In 2026, global supply - demand is expected to remain in a tight - balance state, and the price is expected to fluctuate with a rising center. Domestic supply and demand will continue to be weak [153][155]. - **Cuisine Oils and Meals**: In 2026, global supply will turn loose, while domestic supply will be tight. Prices are expected to fluctuate, and the key factor is the development of China - Canada trade relations [156][157]. 3.9 Related Listed Company Stock Statistics The report provides stock price and year - to - date performance data of several listed companies in the grain and oil processing, feed processing, and aquaculture industries [159].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The USDA's December report met market expectations, and the market continues to focus on the sowing and weather conditions of South American soybeans. The progress of China's procurement of US soybeans remains slow, and the arrival volume from December to January may be lower than expected. Brazil's soybean sowing is going smoothly, and the market expects an increase in area, which may put pressure on the supply from March to May next year. State reserve soybean auctions recently are beneficial for alleviating the shortage of domestic supply around January. On the demand side, breeding losses are suppressing purchasing enthusiasm, and demand is weak, being in a seasonal off - peak. Low prices and excessive forward discounts in futures may over - price future negative factors. For rapeseed, domestic rapeseed inventories are close to zero due to reduced imports, and both rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil imports are restricted by import tariffs. The arrival of Australian imports has increased recently, and the rapeseed import volume in December and January is expected to be at the historical average level. As the peak season for aquatic product demand ends, demand - side support will further weaken. For oils, the pressure on the supply side of soybean oil has slightly eased, and there is some support on the demand side due to the year - end peak season. The overseas biodiesel theme has slowed down, putting short - term pressure on oils. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil has exceeded expectations, and China's imports have slowed down, but the approaching Spring Festival may drive demand. The implementation of Indonesia's B50 plan may be postponed, weakening the demand expectation for palm oil as a biodiesel raw material. The high tariff on imported rapeseed in China affects the supply of rapeseed oil raw materials, and rapeseed oil is in a passive weak shock [6][38][39][40][41] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The USDA December report met expectations, and the market focuses on South American soybean sowing and weather. China's procurement of US soybeans is slow, and the December - January arrival volume may be lower than expected. Brazil's soybean sowing is smooth, which may pressure the March - May supply next year. State reserve auctions can alleviate the supply shortage around January. Demand is weak due to breeding losses and is in a seasonal off - peak. Low prices and forward discounts may over - price future negatives [6] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Domestic rapeseed inventories are close to zero due to reduced imports, and imports of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are restricted by tariffs. Australian imports are increasing, and the December - January import volume is expected to be at the historical average. As the aquatic product demand peak ends, demand support will weaken. Domestic rapeseed crushers are mostly shut down, and the spot price is scarce, being more affected by soybean meal in the short term [6] 3.2 Oils - **Soybean Oil**: The recent decline in oil mill crushing volume has slightly eased the supply - side pressure. There is some support on the demand side due to the year - end peak season. The slowdown of the overseas biodiesel theme puts short - term pressure on soybean oil. With low absolute prices and weak fundamentals, the price maintains a weak shock [38][39] - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's December supply - demand data exceeded expectations, with inventory accumulation higher than expected. China's imports have slowed down, and demand is weak, but the approaching Spring Festival may drive demand. The postponement of Indonesia's B50 plan weakens the demand expectation for palm oil as a biodiesel raw material. Attention should be paid to the possible inventory reduction cycle due to seasonal production cuts in major producing countries from December to February [40] - **Rapeseed Oil**: High tariffs on imported rapeseed in China make the import volume of Canadian rapeseed uncertain, affecting the supply of rapeseed oil raw materials. Reduced imports have led to continuous inventory reduction of rapeseed oil. In the context of overall weak oils, rapeseed oil is in a passive weak shock, and short - term shocks are caused by demand substitution [41]