证券研究报告 汽车周观点： 4月第3周乘用车环比+10.8%，继续看好汽车板块 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 2025年4月27日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 核心结论 注：若无特殊说明，"本周"均代表2025.4.21-2025.4.27 2 （ ◼ 本周复盘总结：四月第三周交强险37.8万辆，环比上周/上月周度+10.8%/-19.9% 。 本周SW汽车指数+4.9%，细分板块涨跌幅排序: SW商用载客车(+6.6%)＞ SW汽车零 部件(+5.7%) > SW汽车(+4.9%)>SW乘用车(+3.9%)>SＷ商用载货车(+3.85%) > 重 卡指数(+3.79%) >SW摩托车及其他(+2.6%) 。本周已覆盖标的蔚来-SW、耐世特、 春风动力、长华集团、爱柯迪涨幅较好。 ◼ 本周团队研究成果：外发深度报告《看好Robotaxi商业化落地拐点已至》；银轮股份、 拓普集团、松原安全、伯特利2024年报点评；瑞鹄模具、旭升集团2025年一季报点评。 ◼ 本周行业核心变化：1）特斯拉2025Q1实现营收193.35亿 ...

投资要点 本周复盘总结： 四月第二周交强险34.2万辆，环比上周/上月周度+3.8%/-17.8%。 本周SW汽车指数-5.5%，细 分板块涨跌幅排序: SW商用载客车(+2.2%)> SW摩托车及其他(+1.3%) ＞ SＷ商用载货车 (+0.2%) > 重卡指数(-0.4%) > SW汽车(-0.8%)> SW乘用车(-1.0%) ＞ SW汽车零部件(-1.2%) 。本 周已覆盖标的 亚太股份、明阳科技、苏轴股份、中国汽研和蔚来-W 涨幅较好。 本周团队研究成果：外发深度报告《小鹏汽车核心竞争力剖析》，客车、重卡月报，继峰股 份、长安汽车、福耀玻璃、春风动力Q1季报点评。 未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 除了大盘本身波动之外，市场对汽车近期担忧主要是三方面：1）小米事故引发对汽车智能化β 的降温；2）贸易战升级担心汽车尤其零部件出海业务的盈利性；3）担心头部车企降价引发新 一轮国内价格战。 本周行业核心变化： 1） 小鹏举行全球热爱之夜暨2025X9发布会，明确图灵芯片、增程、飞行汽车、机器人规划， 发布2025款小鹏X9； 2） 4月16日上汽集团与华为联合发布全新品牌"SAIC尚界"，双方在智能 汽车领 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive sector, emphasizing continued optimism for the automotive industry [3][5]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is experiencing a rebound, with a week-on-week increase of 3.8% in passenger car insurance registrations, totaling 342,000 units [2][44]. - The report highlights significant developments in the industry, including the launch of new models and partnerships aimed at enhancing smart vehicle capabilities [2][3]. - The report anticipates a strong demand for passenger vehicles in 2025, projecting a retail sales volume of 23.83 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.7% [45][46]. Summary by Sections Weekly Review - The automotive index decreased by 5.5% this week, with the best-performing segments being commercial passenger vehicles (+2.2%) and motorcycles (+1.3%) [2][15]. - Key companies such as Asia-Pacific Holdings, Mingyang Technology, and Suzhou Axle showed notable gains this week [2][23]. Industry Changes - Key events include the launch of the 2025 XPeng X9 and the establishment of a new brand "SAIC Shangjie" through a partnership between SAIC Group and Huawei [2][3]. - The report notes the introduction of new models like the Leapmotor B01 and the Enjoy S9 range extender, indicating a focus on innovation and market expansion [2][3]. Market Trends - The report identifies three main concerns affecting the automotive market: the impact of recent accidents on smart driving technology, trade tensions affecting profitability, and the potential for a new price war among leading manufacturers [3]. - Despite these concerns, the report argues that the smart driving regulations will improve industry health and that the price competition is a normal aspect of the automotive market [3]. Sales Forecast - The report forecasts a total of 2.383 million passenger vehicles sold in 2025, with a significant increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles expected to reach 62% [46][49]. - The report also predicts a strong performance in the heavy truck segment, with an expected increase in sales volume to 1.01 million units in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12% [50][55]. Company Tracking - The report tracks key companies in the sector, noting significant developments such as XPeng's new model launch and the establishment of strategic partnerships aimed at enhancing technological capabilities [2][57].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the commercial vehicle industry, focusing on the performance and outlook of various companies within this sector, particularly regarding sales trends and policy impacts. Key Points and Arguments Market Cycle and Outlook - The current market cycle is viewed as being in a neutral position, with expectations of an upward trend lasting approximately 20 years, potentially extending to 2028 or beyond [1] - The overall sentiment in the commercial vehicle sector is cautiously optimistic, with a recommendation for stakeholders to remain actively engaged [1] Sales Data Analysis - The wholesale sales for January and February showed a year-on-year decline of about 2%, influenced by the timing of the Spring Festival, which affected comparability with previous years [2] - Inventory levels increased, with 25,000 units added in the current year compared to 47,000 units in the previous year, indicating a significant change in market dynamics [2] Export Performance - The export market has shown resilience despite challenges, with structural impacts from geopolitical events, particularly the conflict in Russia affecting supply chains [3] - The growth in the export of new energy vehicles was highlighted, with a notable increase of over 50% year-on-year in February [13] Policy Impact - The implementation of state-owned enterprise policies is expected to gradually take effect from mid-March, with potential sales boosts estimated between 400,000 to 700,000 units [6] - The current policy environment is described as a "policy window," with many provinces yet to fully implement new regulations [8] Company-Specific Insights - Yutong's sales in January and February were impacted by seasonal factors, but there are signs of recovery in March, with expectations of over 20% growth in exports [15] - Jinlong's sales performance was exceptionally strong, particularly in exports, with a threefold increase year-on-year in January and February due to backlog orders from the previous year [17] - The financial performance of companies like Zhongtong is projected to improve significantly, with expectations of turning profits in the coming months [19] Investment Recommendations - The conference emphasized the potential for investment in companies like Yutong and Jinlong, which are expected to benefit from domestic demand recovery and export growth [21] - The overall sentiment suggests a favorable outlook for the commercial vehicle sector, with specific companies identified as key investment opportunities based on their performance and market positioning [21] Additional Important Content - The discussion included insights into the cyclical nature of the market, with expectations of a return to mid-cycle levels before potentially breaking through to higher growth [9] - The importance of understanding structural and seasonal factors in sales data was reiterated, emphasizing the need for careful analysis when interpreting market trends [5] - The call concluded with an invitation for further engagement and inquiries regarding detailed company models and market analyses [21]

资金悄然布局！红利低波ETF(512890)基金规模与 份额连续两周实现周度净增长 今年以来（25/1/1-25/3/25）红利风格整体承压，然而伴随着本轮调整，红利类资产投资价值或有所 提升，逐渐吸引更多资金关注。交易所数据显示，红利ETF（510880）、红利低波ETF（512890）2025 年3月26日早盘收盘成交额分别为1.9亿元、2.2亿元，较前一交易日放量显著。 2025年3月10日至3月25日，红利低波ETF（512890）基金份额与规模分别增长3.09亿份、7.92亿 元，均已连续两周（25/3/10-25/3/21）实现周度净增长，累计吸引3.64亿元资金布局。截至2025年3月25 日，红利ETF（510880）、红利低波ETF（512890）规模分别达222.34亿元、143.06亿元，是目前A股市 场仅有的两只百亿元规模的红利主题ETF产品。（资金流入数据来源：Wind，基金规模与份额数据来 源：交易所） 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。基金管理公司不保证本基金一定盈利，也不保证最低收益， 基金过往业绩不能预示未来收益。市场有风险，投资需谨慎，风险自担。投资人在投资基金前应认真阅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article reviews the performance of the dividend style in 2024, analyzes the timing effects of the dividend style in a low interest rate environment from an overseas perspective, introduces dividend stock selection strategies and event effects, and provides an outlook on the future performance of the dividend style in the current low interest rate environment [1][10]. Group 1: Dividend Performance in 2024 - The dividend style showed strong performance in 2024, with excess returns relative to the CSI All Share Index from 2021 to 2024, indicating a stable return profile [3]. - Since the end of May 2024, there has been a degree of internal differentiation within the dividend style, with financial and utility sectors maintaining stability while cyclical sectors experienced some pullback [3]. - Insurance funds have increased their allocation to dividend assets, as evidenced by the top holders of dividend ETFs [3]. Group 2: Timing of Dividend Style - The analysis draws on experiences from the US, UK, Germany, and Japan to assess how dividend and growth styles perform in low interest rate environments [4][14]. - Both dividend and growth styles performed well in low interest rate environments, with annualized returns of 21%, 11%, 8%, and 10% in the US, UK, Germany, and Japan respectively [4][15]. - Growth style is more sensitive to interest rate changes, with dividend style potentially having an advantage during periods of rising low interest rates [4][17]. Group 3: Dividend Stock Selection Strategy - A constrained dividend selection strategy, limiting industry and market capitalization deviations to within 5% of the CSI Dividend Index, achieved a stable excess return of 4.74% in 2024 and an annualized excess return of 7.65% since 2010 [6][33]. - Companies announcing high dividend plans typically achieve excess returns around the announcement date, with a notable effect observed in the period leading up to the ex-dividend date [6][38]. Group 4: Outlook for Dividend Style - The overall outlook for the dividend style in a low interest rate environment is positive, with expectations of absolute returns driven by interest rate trends and the influx of medium to long-term capital [7][37]. - The anticipated decline in interest rates in 2025 may favor growth style, but the expansion of medium to long-term capital inflows could further boost the dividend style [7][36].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: DTW Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Based on the principle of similarity and the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) algorithm, this model identifies timing signals by comparing current market trends with historical patterns[4][25] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model calculates the similarity between the current index trend and historical market trends using the DTW distance metric, which is more flexible than Euclidean distance for time-series data[27] - Historical segments with high similarity are selected as references - The weighted average future returns and standard deviations of these historical segments are calculated (weights are the inverse of the DTW distance) - Trading signals are generated based on the average future returns and standard deviations[25] - Improved DTW algorithms, such as those with Sakoe-Chiba and Itakura boundary constraints, are used to address issues like "over-warping" in traditional DTW[29] - **Model Evaluation**: The DTW algorithm is particularly suitable for time-series problems and outperforms other methods due to its flexibility in handling temporal misalignments[27] 2. Model Name: Foreign Capital Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model leverages the price movements of offshore assets related to A-shares to generate timing signals for the A-share market[32] - **Model Construction Process**: - Two offshore assets are used: FTSE China A50 Index Futures (Singapore market) and Southern A50 ETF (Hong Kong market) - For FTSE China A50 Index Futures, two indicators are constructed: basis and price deviation - For Southern A50 ETF, a price deviation indicator is constructed - Timing signals from these two assets are combined to form the overall foreign capital timing signal[32] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. DTW Timing Model - **Out-of-Sample Performance (Since November 2022)**: - Absolute return: 25.38% - Excess return over CSI 300: 19.02% - Maximum drawdown: 20.07% - Weekly win rate: Over 60% - Weekly win rate in 2024: Over 70%[4][16] - **Performance in 2024 (CSI 300)**: - Absolute return: 23.58% - Excess return: 5.27% - Maximum drawdown: 14.88% - Trading win rate: 63.64% - Profit-loss ratio: 2.64[16] 2. Foreign Capital Timing Model - **Full-Sample Performance (2014-2024)**: - Annualized return: 18.96% (long-short), 14.19% (long-only) - Maximum drawdown: 25.69% (long-short), 17.27% (long-only) - Daily win rate: Nearly 55% - Profit-loss ratio: Above 2.5[18] - **Out-of-Sample Performance in 2024**: - Long-only strategy: - Absolute return: 28.05% - Maximum drawdown: 8.32% - Long-short strategy: - Absolute return: 21.66% - Maximum drawdown: 13.14%[21]