Macroeconomics - Deutsche Bank suggests the US dollar may face further adjustments to eliminate the US current account deficit [1]

Group 1 - The core argument of the report is that tariffs are not a zero-sum game and have significant implications for U.S. Treasury securities and the U.S. dollar, with a focus on the broader economic impact rather than just the immediate costs to producers and consumers [1][2] - Tariffs paid by U.S. importers are projected to amount to $327 billion annually, which represents 1% of the nominal GDP for 2025 [2][6] - If companies fully absorb the tariff costs, profit margins could drop from 13.8% to 11.7% in Q1 2025, significantly below the 15-year moving average of 12.2% [2][12] Group 2 - The report highlights that if 75% of the tariffs are passed on to consumers, profit margins could exceed the 15-year moving average by 1.1 percentage points [12][13] - The analysis indicates that the current economic environment is leaning towards downside risks, with a noted decline in air passenger traffic compared to previous years [17] - The report suggests that despite some foreign investors increasing their holdings in U.S. stocks, there is a notable trend of U.S. domestic investors reducing their exposure, indicating a potential reallocation of assets [34][36]

欧洲央行副行长金多斯：对美国的怀疑态度反映在美元上。 ...

美国明尼阿波利斯联储主席Kashkari：我不会赌美元不再是最重要的货币。 ...

金十数据6月26日讯，据外媒分析报道，如果特朗普在9月的美联储利率决议之前宣布鲍威尔的接班人， 那么美元的形势可能会由"坏"变成"更坏"。因为一旦如此，意味着鲍威尔任期内剩下的六次会议都将 在"继任者阴影"下进行（其任期将于明年5月结束），这可能削弱鲍威尔的权威，进而打击美元。如果 鲍威尔领导的美联储在下月连续第五次按兵不动，那么这种情况发生的几率就会增加，因为那将激怒特 朗普。当前市场预计美联储在7月30日降息的概率为25%。 外媒：若美联储7月不降息，特朗普将给鲍威尔安排个"影子" ...

美元延续弱势，在岸人民币日内随多数亚币走升，并刷新去年11月以来新高。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. dollar remains the global reserve currency, and there is no opinion on whether it is overvalued [1] Group 1 - The statement emphasizes the continued dominance of the U.S. dollar in the global financial system [1] - The lack of a stance on the dollar's valuation indicates a neutral position regarding its current market status [1]

Core Viewpoint - The narrative suggesting the decline of the US dollar as the primary safe-haven currency is considered premature and somewhat exaggerated [1] Group 1 - The US dollar continues to hold its position as the leading safe-haven currency [1]

美联储哈玛克：无需过度夸大（投资者）远离美元这一迹象。 ...

美联储哈玛克：我们尚未看到投资者放弃美元的迹象，而是逐步转向更中性的位置。 ...