美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 1月20日，德国基尔世界经济研究所当地时间1月19日发布的一份研究报告显示，美国政府加征的关税并 未转嫁给国外出口商，相反，美国进口商和消费者承担了绝大部分额外关税负担。这份报告分析了在 2024年1月到2025年11月期间，通过海运进入美国的超过2500万条、总额近4万亿美元的贸易数据，结果 显示，关税每提高10个百分点，进口商品的平均价格仅会下降0.39%。也就是说，如果美国对某类产品 征收25%的进口关税，其出口商平均仅会将货物价格下调不到1%，而剩下24%的关税成本，则全部由美 国进口商承担，并最终不同程度转嫁给美国消费者。 根据这种计算方法，在2025年美国政府通过加征关税获得的约2000亿美元收入中，仅有4%由外国出口 商缴纳，剩下的96%均由美国进口商和消费者承担。研究报告的共同作者、基尔世界经济研究所研究主 任朱利安·欣茨表示，美国的关税政策简直就像乌龙球，美国认为别的国家在承担这些关税只是一种迷 思，数据显示的情况恰恰相反：正是美国人在为这笔账单付款。 ...

Core Insights - A new study indicates that American consumers bear nearly all the costs of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, contradicting the claim that foreign producers would absorb these costs [2][4][5] - The findings suggest that the U.S. may be at a disadvantage in the ongoing trade conflict with Europe, as the tariffs have not effectively taxed foreign manufacturers [3][4] Group 1: Tariff Impact on Costs - The Kiel Institute for the World Economy's research shows that only about 4% of the tariff burden was absorbed by foreign exporters, while U.S. consumers and importers absorbed 96% [3][5] - The report highlights that tariffs have effectively become a consumption tax on Americans, with no wealth transfer from foreign producers to the U.S. [4][5] Group 2: Economic Implications - The increase in tariffs, amounting to $200 billion, has been primarily paid by Americans, which could lead to higher inflation over time [5][6] - Despite aggressive tariff increases, U.S. inflation remained moderate, with only about 20% of the tariff costs passed on to consumers within six months [5][6] Group 3: Trade Volume Effects - Tariffs have significantly impacted trade volumes, with Indian exporters maintaining prices but experiencing a 18% to 24% reduction in shipments to the U.S. compared to the EU, Canada, and Australia [3][5] - The study suggests that high tariffs may discourage foreign exporters from selling to the U.S. market, as they may seek buyers in other countries or anticipate changes in tariff levels [5][6]

作为大众汽车集团旗下品牌，奥迪周三表示，2025年汽车交付量降至162万辆，其中北美市场下滑 12.2%。 北美市场交付量从2024年的230，220辆降至202，143辆。 奥迪表示："2025年，地缘政治与经济挑战持续对交付数据构成压力。" "市场的激烈竞争环境以及美国的关税政策影响了整个汽车行业，并改变了全球消费者行为。" 该公司补充称，欧洲、德国本土以及海外和新兴市场的稳健表现未能完全抵消这些不利因素。 欧洲市场（不含德国）交付量微降0.5%，而德国本土交付量增长4.0%。 奥迪公布全年汽车交付量下滑2.9%，该品牌呼应了德国同行近期的表态，称市场的激烈竞争以及美国 关税政策对需求造成了冲击。 作为大众汽车集团旗下品牌，奥迪周三表示，2025年汽车交付量降至162万辆，其中北美市场下滑 12.2%。 北美市场交付量从2024年的230，220辆降至202，143辆。 奥迪表示："2025年，地缘政治与经济挑战持续对交付数据构成压力。" "市场的激烈竞争环境以及美国的关税政策影响了整个汽车行业，并改变了全球消费者行为。" 该公司补充称，欧洲、德国本土以及海外和新兴市场的稳健表现未能完全抵消这些不利因素。 ...

Core Viewpoint - There is a significant divergence in Wall Street's outlook on copper prices following a 22% surge, with UBS warning of a structural shortage by 2026/27 due to low project approvals, while Goldman Sachs and Citigroup caution against short-term price volatility driven by U.S. tariff fears [1][12]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - UBS analysts highlight that despite a bullish long-term outlook for copper, the number of final investment decisions (FID) for projects remains low from 2023 to 2025, indicating a potential supply crisis [2][6]. - UBS's long-term model suggests that global mining supply will peak between 2028-2030 and then decline, with a projected supply-demand gap of 7 million tons by 2035 [6][7]. - To address this gap, the industry needs to increase capital expenditures significantly, requiring over $175 billion in new project spending by 2035 [7]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure Insights - Although nominal global copper industry capital expenditures remain stable at around $40 billion, real expenditures adjusted for inflation are projected to be only about 30% of the peak levels seen in 2013 by 2025 [3]. - The capital intensity of new projects is rising sharply, with potential projects from 2025-2030 requiring an average capital intensity of $25,000 per ton, a 50% increase compared to projects approved from 2021-2025 [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Short-Term Outlook - Goldman Sachs and Citigroup express concerns that the recent price surge is primarily driven by speculative "stockpiling" in anticipation of U.S. tariffs, warning that prices may revert to a surplus situation once clarity on tariffs is achieved [12][14]. - UBS counters this short-term perspective, asserting that the fundamental supply challenges and resilient demand will support further price increases, with 2026 expected to be a year of tangible shortages [13][14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the ongoing economic challenges faced by Germany, characterized by low growth, low investment, and low confidence, leading to a "new normal" for the economy [2][3][4] - Germany's GDP has experienced consecutive negative growth in 2023 and 2024, marking the worst performance in nearly 20 years, with expectations for only 0.1% growth in 2025 [2][3] - The manufacturing sector, particularly in automotive and chemical industries, is seeing a significant reduction in investment plans, with a notable decline in investment expectations reported at negative 9.2 points [3][4] Group 2 - The U.S. tariff policies have severely impacted Germany's export model, with exports to the U.S. dropping significantly, averaging a decline of 7.8% in the first three quarters of 2025 compared to previous years [5][6] - The new German federal government's fiscal expansion, including a special fund of €500 billion for infrastructure, is seen as a potential driver for economic recovery, with projections suggesting it could contribute up to 0.8 percentage points to GDP growth by 2026 [7][8] - Despite the potential benefits of fiscal spending, concerns remain regarding the long-term debt burden, with a projected budget gap of €172 billion from 2027 to 2029, and revised growth forecasts for 2026 ranging from 0.7% to 1.3% [8]

Group 1 - The core consumer spending during the Christmas season in the U.S. is showing signs of weakness, with retail sales growth at 4.2%, lower than last year's 4.8% increase, and a real growth rate of only 2.2% after adjusting for inflation [1] - Foot traffic in physical retail stores has declined, with a 5.4% drop in visits during the last Saturday before Christmas compared to last year, indicating a shift towards more practical and frugal consumer behavior [1] - Despite the weak retail performance, the U.S. GDP growth in the third quarter reached its highest level in two years, primarily driven by strong consumer spending, although this growth is now under pressure due to rising living costs [1] Group 2 - Consumer spending supporting GDP growth is increasingly reliant on credit expansion, with 37% of Americans using loans to cover holiday expenses, and the average holiday debt rising to $1,223, the highest since 2022 [2] - The pressure from tariffs and high prices is impacting household budgets, leading to increased debt during the holiday season, as consumers find it difficult to forgo holiday traditions despite rising costs [2] - A significant portion of borrowers, 63%, expect to take three months or longer to pay off their holiday debt, with 41% still paying off last year's bills, which could lead to a heavy interest burden given the average credit card rates exceeding 20% [2]

Group 1 - Southeast Asian countries are caught in a complex situation due to US-China trade tensions, relying on Chinese supply chains while facing US tariffs [1][11] - The "China plus one" strategy has led multinational companies to shift assembly operations to Southeast Asia to avoid US tariffs, but this still ties them to Chinese supply chains [5][6] - Southeast Asia's dependence on Chinese supply chains is critical for its assembly industries, which are essential for exports to the US market [8][10] Group 2 - The tightening of US policies under the Trump administration has exacerbated the challenges faced by Southeast Asian countries, pushing them towards a more extreme position of choosing sides [3][15] - New US policies classify products as "Made in China" if they rely on Chinese components, imposing additional tariffs and creating uncertainty for Southeast Asian exporters [17][20] - The economic growth in Southeast Asia is showing signs of fragility, with industries like textiles and electronics facing significant risks due to reliance on US markets and Chinese supply chains [22][23] Group 3 - The US has pressured Southeast Asian countries to choose between trade agreements with the US or China, complicating their ability to maintain a balanced approach [29][31] - Countries like Indonesia have rejected US demands, while smaller nations like Cambodia face difficult choices between losing access to the US market or compromising their strategic autonomy with China [32][35] - The path to industrial upgrading for Southeast Asia is fraught with challenges, as they struggle to break free from dependence on Chinese supply chains while needing to enhance their technological capabilities [34]

Economic Performance - Japan's GDP for Q3 has been revised to a contraction of 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, translating to an annualized decline of 2.3%, marking the first shrinkage in six quarters and indicating significant economic pressure [2] - The downward revision was primarily driven by a shift in corporate capital expenditure from a preliminary growth of 1.0% to a decline of 0.2%, reflecting corporate caution amid uncertainties from U.S. tariff policies [2] External Demand - External demand contributed negatively to economic growth by 0.2 percentage points, with the U.S. market accounting for approximately 20% of Japan's total exports [2] - The U.S. has imposed a 15% tariff on most goods imported from Japan, significantly higher than the previous 2% to 3% levels, leading to a continuous decline in Japan's exports to the U.S. for seven consecutive months, particularly affecting the automotive, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and pharmaceuticals sectors [2] Internal Demand - Internal demand also negatively impacted Japan's economic growth by 0.4 percentage points, with personal consumption, which constitutes over half of the economy, only slightly increasing by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, insufficient to support overall economic growth [3] - Despite nominal wage growth, real wages adjusted for inflation fell by 0.7% year-on-year in October, marking the tenth consecutive month of decline, as income growth has not kept pace with inflation [3] Monetary Policy Implications - The current economic data is unlikely to alter the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike trajectory, which could increase social funding costs, weaken corporate investment willingness, and further dampen economic vitality, leading to a less optimistic economic outlook for Japan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The selection of the Chinese character "tax" as Malaysia's annual character reflects public dissatisfaction with U.S. tariff policies and highlights ongoing concerns about social and economic issues in the context of increasing uncertainty [1][3]. Group 1: Impact of U.S. Tariff Policies - The U.S. has imposed significant tariffs on trade partners, which has notably impacted Malaysia's business environment and market expectations, particularly for electronics and semiconductor companies operating in the region [1][2]. - Malaysia's dependence on the U.S. market is under scrutiny as companies face rising compliance costs and pressure to reassess their reliance on U.S. business [1][2]. - The U.S. trade diplomacy is perceived as a means to establish a framework of punishment and submission rather than a fair economic order, with tariffs being used as a "diplomatic weapon" [1][2]. Group 2: Trade Agreements and Conditions - During the 47th ASEAN Summit, a trade agreement was reached between the U.S. and Malaysia, which includes conditions that could lead to the termination of the agreement if Malaysia signs new trade deals deemed harmful to U.S. interests [2]. - The agreement allows for zero tariffs on many U.S. goods entering Malaysia, but the coverage for Malaysian goods is limited and contingent on various conditions, creating a passive situation for Malaysia's trade policy choices [2]. - The ambiguous language regarding "U.S. core interests" raises concerns about how Malaysia's cooperation with other countries could be interpreted as detrimental to these interests [2]. Group 3: Societal Reflections and Expectations - The character "tax" symbolizes a broader societal reflection on the costs of engaging in trade with the U.S., prompting discussions about the existing economic models and cooperation paths [3]. - The selection of "tax" also represents the public's desire for a fair tax system and trade practices, opposing the hegemonic pressures faced by developing countries like Malaysia [3].

Core Viewpoint - The USD index is experiencing a narrow trading range due to uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy direction and mixed economic data from the U.S. [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve completed its third rate cut of the year on December 10, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75% [1] - There is significant internal division among Fed officials, with over half of the 19 forecasting members favoring maintaining rates until 2026, while a minority advocates for further easing [1] - Fed Chair Powell's hawkish signals suggest a potential pause in the rate-cutting cycle, but mixed signals from other officials have led to a slight decline in the USD index [1] Group 2: Long-term Dollar Pressure - The long-term depreciation pressure on the USD remains, with challenges from the Fed's easing cycle and increasing fiscal deficits [2] - The current U.S. tariff policy is disrupting global capital flows, further weakening the USD's safe-haven status [2] - While most institutions maintain a bearish outlook on the USD, some express cautious optimism due to the relative resilience of the U.S. economy compared to Europe and Japan [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The USD index is currently trading within a range of 98.34 to 98.478, with 98.34 acting as a key support level [3] - A break below this support could lead to further declines, while a successful breach of 98.478 may open up a slight rebound opportunity [3] - Key factors influencing the USD index include U.S. economic data, Fed officials' statements, and U.S. tariff policies [3] Group 4: Medium to Long-term Outlook - The USD index's future largely depends on the Fed's policy independence and the U.S. fiscal situation [4] - If the Fed becomes a political tool and is forced to expand easing, the USD could depreciate more rapidly [4] - The pace of changes in the international monetary system and geopolitical risks will also play significant roles in the USD's valuation [4]