Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing strong upward momentum driven by the potential U.S. government shutdown and a weakening U.S. dollar, with gold prices reaching historical highs [1][3]. Gold Market - Spot gold prices reached a peak of $3833.94 per ounce, closing at $3833.71, marking a daily increase of 1.89% [1]. - In the Asian market, gold opened at $3833.12 per ounce, fluctuated between $3825.50 and $3851.74, and remained around $3847 per ounce during analysis [3]. - The overall bullish trend in gold is supported by a declining U.S. dollar index, which closed at 97.94, down 0.26% [3]. Silver Market - Spot silver also saw significant gains, closing at $46.908 per ounce with a rise of 1.93% [1]. Energy Market - The energy market showed mixed results, with WTI crude oil prices falling to $62.73 per barrel, down 2.97%, while U.S. natural gas prices increased to $3.275 per million British thermal units, up 3.085% [3]. Stock Market - U.S. stock indices showed slight gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.15%, the S&P 500 up 0.26%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.48% [4]. European Stock Market - European stock indices mostly rose, with the DAX30 up 0.07%, FTSE 100 up 0.14%, and CAC40 up 0.13%, while the IBEX35 and FTSE MIB saw slight declines [5]. Economic Data - Recent economic data from the Eurozone and the U.S. showed mixed results, with the Eurozone economic sentiment improving slightly, while U.S. housing market indicators exceeded expectations [7]. - The Dallas Fed's business activity index fell short of expectations, indicating pressure on some U.S. regions [7]. Federal Reserve Commentary - Divergent views emerged among Federal Reserve officials regarding future interest rate cuts, with some advocating for caution due to potential economic data shortages from a government shutdown [8][9]. Geopolitical Developments - The geopolitical landscape remains tense, particularly regarding U.S.-Israel relations and the ongoing situation in Gaza, which could impact market stability [10]. Technical Analysis - Technical indicators for gold suggest a strong upward trend, with prices consistently above short-term moving averages and increasing momentum [10][11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the U.S. economy is facing an increasing likelihood of re-acceleration, driven by resilient labor markets, expectations of fiscal stimulus, and a loose financial environment [1][2][6] - Key indicators show strong performance in the U.S. economy, with Goldman Sachs' U.S. Macro Economic Surprise Index recently surging and initial jobless claims providing positive signals [2] - The report identifies several factors contributing to this economic re-acceleration, including loose financial conditions, strong performance of risk assets, expectations of future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and a weaker dollar [3] Group 2 - Positive fiscal policy impulses are expected in the first half of next year, alongside continued capital expenditure growth in the artificial intelligence sector [4] - The U.S. consumer base remains solid, and the impact of deregulation should not be overlooked [5] - The combination of these favorable factors increases the likelihood of unexpected economic growth next year [6] Group 3 - The monetary policy path will significantly depend on the new Federal Reserve chair, with contrasting scenarios for 2025 and 2026 [7] - Current statements from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicate that recent job growth is below the "breakeven" level, suggesting a path towards normalizing policy rates closer to neutral levels (3-3.5% range) [7][8] - Goldman Sachs' baseline scenario anticipates rate cuts of 25 basis points in October and December of this year [7] Group 4 - Two core questions arise regarding the Federal Reserve's actions: whether rates will be lowered below neutral levels even if the economy is healthy, and whether the Fed can raise rates during a potential Trump administration to counter economic overheating [8] - Two distinct trading strategies are proposed based on market expectations of the Federal Reserve's policy response: going long on U.S. long-term breakeven inflation rates, gold, and holding risk assets if low policy rates are expected, or anticipating a steeper U.S. Treasury yield curve if the Fed tightens policy in response to economic re-acceleration [9] - The current market measures of mid-2026 rate expectations indicate that the market has not fully priced in the risk of rate hikes, with the SFRM6/M8 spread hovering around -5 basis points [9]

Group 1 - The possibility of a re-acceleration in the U.S. economy is increasing, driven by a resilient labor market, expectations of fiscal stimulus, and a loose financial environment [1][2] - The U.S. macroeconomic surprise index has significantly risen, and initial jobless claims have shown encouraging results, with a projected Q3 GDP annualized growth rate of 2.6% [2][6] - Key factors contributing to this economic outlook include loose financial conditions, positive fiscal policies, and a solid consumer base [3][4][5] Group 2 - The monetary policy path of the Federal Reserve will be influenced by the new chairperson, with differing scenarios for 2025 and 2026 [7][8] - Current employment growth is below the "breakeven" level, suggesting a potential normalization of policy rates closer to neutral levels (3-3.5%) [7] - Two distinct trading strategies are proposed based on market expectations of the Fed's response to economic re-acceleration, including long positions in U.S. long-term breakeven inflation rates and gold if rates remain low, or a steeper yield curve if the Fed tightens policy [8]

Market Overview - Domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance with the main contracts mostly declining, while silver rose over 4% and gold increased by over 1% [1] - The commodities that experienced significant declines included coking coal and glass, both dropping over 3%, while coking and paper pulp fell over 2% [1] Futures Contract Performance - The latest data indicates that the coking coal contract decreased by 3.95%, while glass and coking contracts fell by 3.18% and 2.82% respectively [2] - In contrast, silver and gold contracts showed positive movement, with silver increasing by 4.03% and gold by 1.07% [2] Economic Context - The gold market is influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions and the potential government shutdown in the U.S., which may lead to increased volatility during the upcoming holiday period [3] - The core PCE price index data for August showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, aligning with expectations, and consumer spending has risen for three consecutive months [3]

美元或将出现持续且广泛的抛售，这是来自大摩的最新判断，且认为政府关门是美元的"潜在利空"因素。 9月23日，据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利在最新研报中称， 美元已进入"熊市机制"，预计这一状态将持续更长时间，带来广泛的美元卖压。 大摩策略师David S. Adams认为，美联储在鲍威尔杰克逊霍尔讲话后明确转向优先保护就业市场，即便以容忍高于目标的通胀为代价， 这一政策立场的转变 为美元熊市提供了持续动力 。 美联储政策转向触发美元熊市机制 摩根士丹利在年中展望中曾预测美元将持续走弱，但当时预期最可能的市场机制是"防御机制"，即实际利率和盈亏平衡点同时下降。 然而，自5月以来的实际情况有所不同： 实际利率确实下降了，但盈亏平衡点有所扩大。这种动态正是该行四机制框架所显示的"美元熊市机制"。 大摩指出， 关键的是，市场定价显示美元的利差优势将在未来12个月内下降近100个基点，这将显著降低做空美元的成本。 美国政府关门风险正在上升， 摩根士丹利认为这对美元构成潜在利空 。Polymarket市场数据显示，政府关门概率近期明显上升，这可能进一步 增加美元的风 险溢价 。 研报称，美联储货币政策委员会反应函数的明显转 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts a sustained and widespread sell-off of the US dollar, citing potential negative impacts from a government shutdown as a contributing factor [1]. Group 1: Dollar Bear Market Mechanism - Morgan Stanley indicates that the US dollar has entered a "bear market mechanism," which is expected to persist for a longer duration, leading to significant selling pressure on the dollar [1]. - The shift in the Federal Reserve's policy, prioritizing job market protection over strict inflation control, is seen as a driving force behind the dollar's bear market [4][6]. - Historical data shows that under the dollar bear market mechanism, other currencies tend to appreciate against the dollar with a frequency of 67-84% and substantial average gains [4]. Group 2: Interest Rate Dynamics - The market is pricing in a decline of nearly 100 basis points in the dollar's interest rate advantage over the next 12 months, which will significantly reduce the cost of shorting the dollar [1][11]. - Investors have reported that the punitive interest rate spreads associated with shorting the dollar are a challenge, but Morgan Stanley anticipates a "spread relief" that will lower the costs by 50-75 basis points for most currencies, and nearly 150 basis points for USD/JPY [7][11]. Group 3: Government Shutdown Risks - The rising probability of a government shutdown adds new downward pressure on the dollar, as historical trends indicate that such shutdowns typically have a negative impact on the dollar's value [12]. - Current negative risk premium for the dollar is approximately -4%, and a government shutdown could exacerbate this situation, further increasing the risk premium [12]. - A government shutdown would also halt the release of government data, limiting the Federal Reserve's access to economic indicators before its meeting on October 29 [12][14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of Shanghai Silver futures has been rising strongly, with the main contract reaching 10,317 yuan on September 22, a 3.81% increase, hitting a record high. The COMEX silver futures have accumulated a 41% increase since the beginning of the year, far exceeding the 35% increase of gold during the same period. The rise is due to three main reasons: macro - level factors, fundamental factors, and technical factors [3]. - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to fluctuate at a high level overall. The market has a positive expectation due to a press conference at 3 pm today, and relevant departments are promoting the formulation of national standards for pre - made dishes [7]. - The gold market is trading on the expectation of an interest rate cut in October. After a three - day adjustment, gold has reached a new high with a strong upward trend and can continue to be bullish [11]. - For iron ore, the start of restocking may support raw materials. Technically, it is still in a high - level wide - range oscillation range and should be treated with an oscillatory mindset [14]. - For glass, it declined today. Attention should be paid to the support level of the lower platform. The daily melting is basically stable, the factory inventory has slightly decreased, but the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient [18][19]. - For soybean oil, on September 12, the domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.26 million tons. High inventory restricts the price increase space, and it should be treated with a bearish oscillatory view [22]. - For pulp, the price in Shandong is stable, the port inventory is slightly decreasing, and it remains at a medium - high level. Before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, there is an expected boost, but no improvement is seen yet. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and high - selling and low - buying within the range can be considered [25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - The continuous rise of Shanghai Silver futures is mainly due to: macro - level factors such as the Fed's monetary policy shift (new Fed governor's dovish speech supporting a 150 - basis - point interest rate cut this year and market expectations of two 25 - basis - point cuts in the next two meetings) and rising geopolitical tensions; fundamental factors including supply - demand imbalance in the silver market (increased demand from the photovoltaic industry and a global supply - demand gap of 3,659 tons in 2025) and increased investment value; and technical factors such as a bullish moving - average arrangement and a MACD golden cross [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index closed with a small positive line with a lower shadow. A press conference today is expected to be positive for the market, and relevant departments are promoting the formulation of national standards for pre - made dishes. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level [7]. Technical Analysis - Gold - The market is trading on the expectation of an interest rate cut in October. After a three - day adjustment, gold reached a new high with a strong upward trend and can continue to be bullish [11]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - The supply is stable, steel mills are gradually resuming production, and iron ore restocking before the National Day may support prices. Technically, it is in a high - level wide - range oscillation range [14][15]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The glass price declined today. Attention should be paid to the lower platform support. The daily melting is stable, the factory inventory has slightly decreased, but the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient [18][19]. Technical Analysis - Soybean Oil - On September 12, the domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.26 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 100,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons. High inventory restricts the price increase space [22]. Technical Analysis - Pulp - The price of pulp in Shandong is stable, the port inventory is slightly decreasing and remains at a medium - high level. Before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, there is an expected boost, but no improvement is seen yet. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and high - selling and low - buying within the range can be considered [25].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The domestic asphalt futures 2511 contract is expected to maintain a stable and fluctuating trend, benefiting from the rebound of crude oil futures prices and the improvement of the domestic asphalt industry factors under the background of increasing supply and demand [2][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Crude Oil Impact on Asphalt - The trading logic of the crude oil futures market comes from three aspects: macro - factor drive, supply factors, and increased geopolitical premium in the oil market. After the game between the bearish expectation of increased supply and the enhanced geopolitical risk, the domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a stable and fluctuating trend, providing cost support for asphalt futures [3]. Domestic Asphalt Supply - Since September, the processing profit of domestic asphalt manufacturers has recovered, and the refinery production enthusiasm has increased. The capacity utilization rate of domestic asphalt has rebounded, and the supply pressure has increased. As of the week of September 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 92 domestic asphalt refineries was 36.4%, a week - on - week increase of 5.9%. The total domestic asphalt production last week was 60.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.9 tons [4]. Domestic Asphalt Demand and Inventory - Since September, the downstream consumption capacity has increased. The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic sample modified asphalt enterprises was 18.5% at the beginning of September, a week - on - week increase of 2.6%. The asphalt social inventory rate has decreased slightly, showing signs of destocking. As of the week of September 11, 2025, the domestic asphalt sample factory inventory decreased by 24.6% year - on - year, and the sample social inventory decreased by 21.5% year - on - year [5].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced its first interest rate cut since December 2024, lowering rates by 25 basis points [1] - Newly appointed Fed Governor Stephen I. Miran voted against the decision, advocating for a more aggressive cut of 50 basis points, reflecting a stance aligned with former President Trump's policies [2][18] - The Fed's dual mandate is shifting focus from combating inflation to boosting employment, as indicated by the latest meeting statement [3][6][7] Group 2 - Barclays Research predicts a slight increase in the unemployment rate and heightened risks in the job market, forecasting two additional 25 basis point cuts in October and December, with further cuts in 2026 if unemployment rises unexpectedly [5][17] - The Fed's dot plot indicates a median expectation of a total rate cut of 0.5 percentage points by the end of the year, suggesting a preference for gradual cuts [8][9] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the delicate balance between stabilizing prices and achieving full employment, noting that while inflation has decreased, core inflation remains around 3%, above the 2% target [12][13] Group 3 - The Fed's statement removed previous affirmations of a robust labor market, acknowledging a slowdown in job growth and a slight rise in unemployment [7] - The economic forecast for 2026 shows an upward revision in personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation to 2.6%, indicating a longer path to achieving the 2% target [11] - The market's reaction to the rate cut was mixed, with initial gains in U.S. stocks followed by a reversal, while the dollar weakened and gold prices rose [24][25][30] Group 4 - Analysts express concerns about the potential for speculative bubbles due to additional monetary easing in a seemingly stable economy, with warnings about the implications of continued job market weakness [27][28] - The historical context of past rate cuts shows that U.S. stocks have experienced declines during certain periods of easing, while gold has often risen, suggesting a complex relationship between monetary policy and market performance [36][38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The plastic futures 2601 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend, driven by the cost support from stable crude oil prices, reduced polyethylene supply due to plant maintenance, and improved downstream demand during the peak season [2][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil Price and Cost Support - The trading logic in the crude oil futures market comes from three aspects: macro - factor drive with a "tight - to - loose" macro - environment, increased supply as OPEC+ continues to expand production, and rising geopolitical premiums in the oil market. After the game between supply increase and enhanced geopolitical risks, the domestic and international crude oil prices are expected to be volatile and stable, providing cost support for plastic futures [3] 3.2 Domestic Polyethylene Supply - Since September, the weekly output of domestic polyethylene has declined slightly due to the maintenance of devices such as Yulong Petrochemical, Liaoyang Petrochemical, and Yangzi Petrochemical. As of the week of September 12, 2025, the domestic polyethylene enterprise maintenance loss was 14.62 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.28 tons. However, considering the planned restarts and new maintenance in the second half of the month, the supply decline momentum is expected to weaken, and the weekly output may stabilize and rebound [4] 3.3 Downstream Demand - With the arrival of the "Golden September" peak season, the profits of films and packaging films have improved. As of the week of September 12, 2025, the domestic film profit rose to - 220 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 24.14%, and the packaging film profit was 148 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 39.62%. The overall operating rate of downstream polyethylene industries reached 42.17%, a week - on - week increase of 1.11%. The demand side is expected to continue growing [5]