Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures showed a strong performance on September 1, with Shanghai gold futures priced at 801.80 CNY per gram, up 2.24%, and Shanghai silver futures at 9779.00 CNY per kilogram, up 4.20% [1] - International precious metals also saw gains, with COMEX gold priced at 3554.80 CNY per ounce, up 1.10%, and COMEX silver at 41.52 USD per ounce, up 1.89% [1] - Recent trends indicate a focus on the shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy, raising concerns about the independence of the Fed, which has led to increased market demand for safe-haven assets like gold [3] Group 2 - The CME "FedWatch" tool indicates a 12.6% probability of maintaining interest rates in September, while there is an 87.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut [2] - By October, the probability of maintaining rates is projected at 5.6%, with a cumulative 25 basis point cut at 45.8% and a cumulative 50 basis point cut at 48.6% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The strong performance of US economic data released last night put short - term pressure on gold and silver prices, but Trump's removal of Fed Governor Cook further weakened the Fed's independence, and it is certain that the Fed will shift to a dovish stance in its medium - term monetary policy [2][3]. - The US economic data such as durable goods orders, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, and consumer confidence index were better than expected, causing a short - term decline in gold and silver prices after the durable goods orders data was released [2]. - Trump's removal of Cook may lead to a new dovish - leaning理事 entering the FOMC, driving the Fed to implement further interest rate cuts. Based on the current weak US employment data and moderately rising consumer price index, there is a possibility of a 75 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed this year [3]. - Silver prices are expected to rise more significantly than gold prices under the expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy, and the gold - silver ratio will be further downward - corrected. It is recommended to go long on silver at low prices, with the reference operating range for the main Shanghai gold contract being 770 - 794 yuan/gram and the main Shanghai silver contract being 9135 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Prices - Shanghai gold (Au) rose 0.21% to 781.86 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver (Ag) fell 0.30% to 9326.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 0.24% to 3441.10 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver rose 0.22% to 38.69 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.26%, and the US dollar index was 98.24 [2]. - Other price data such as Au(T + D), London gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, SLV silver ETF holdings, etc. are also presented in the report [4]. 3.2 Economic Data - The US July durable goods orders had a month - on - month value of - 2.8%, higher than the expected - 4% and the previous value of - 9.4%. The US August Richmond Fed manufacturing index was - 7, higher than the expected - 11 and the previous value of - 20. The US August Conference Board consumer confidence index was 97.4, higher than the expected 96.2 [2]. 3.3 Policy Impact - Trump's removal of Fed Governor Cook due to suspected financial crimes has a major impact on the Fed's monetary policy independence. If Cook's position is ultimately removed, new dovish - leaning理事 will enter the FOMC, potentially leading to further interest rate cuts [3]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - Based on the historical price movements of precious metals, gold prices benefit from the expansion of the US fiscal deficit, while silver prices are more driven by the expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy. It is believed that there is a possibility of a 75 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed this year, and silver prices will rise more than gold prices, with the gold - silver ratio further downward - corrected. It is recommended to go long on silver at low prices, with reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver contracts provided [3]. 3.5 Data Charts - The report includes a large number of data charts showing the relationship between precious metal prices, trading volumes, open interests, and other factors, as well as the near - far month structure and internal - external price differences of precious metals [6][11][18][23][24][31][34][41][43][50][55][56][58]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market, particularly gold and silver, is experiencing a strong performance due to expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift, with gold prices showing reduced sensitivity to these changes while silver remains highly responsive [1][3]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Gold futures saw a slight increase of 0.46%, while silver futures rose by 1.89% [1]. - Analysts indicate that silver's price is significantly influenced by industrial demand and domestic macroeconomic policies, leading to greater volatility compared to gold [1]. - The strong performance of copper is also positively impacting silver prices, as both metals often exhibit correlated price movements [1]. Group 2: Silver Demand and Market Sentiment - The solar photovoltaic industry's explosive growth has driven silver demand, with silver paste demand accounting for over 20% of total silver demand [2]. - The global silver supply-demand gap is projected to exceed 5,000 tons by 2025, indicating a robust market outlook for silver [2]. - The gold-silver ratio has decreased from over 100 to below 90, suggesting a valuation opportunity for silver, attracting increased investment [2]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Policy - Upcoming U.S. PCE data is a focal point for the market, with expectations that core PCE year-on-year growth will decline to around 3.0% [3]. - The market has fully priced in expectations for two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, with significant declines in the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields [3]. - Analysts emphasize the importance of monitoring Federal Reserve officials' statements and the dot plot for future monetary policy direction [4]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook for Gold and Silver - In the context of geopolitical instability and ongoing central bank gold purchases, gold prices are expected to maintain a bullish trend [4][5]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies and geopolitical tensions continues to support gold's safe-haven appeal [5]. - The correlation between gold and other asset classes remains low, suggesting that gold can serve as a valuable diversification tool in investment portfolios [5].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market, particularly gold and silver, is experiencing a positive trend due to expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift, with gold showing reduced sensitivity to these changes while silver remains highly responsive [1][3]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Gold futures saw a slight increase of 0.46%, while silver futures rose by 1.89% [1]. - Analysts indicate that silver's price is significantly influenced by its industrial applications and domestic macroeconomic policies, leading to greater volatility compared to gold [1]. - The strong performance of copper is also contributing positively to silver prices, as both metals often exhibit correlated price movements [1]. Group 2: Silver Demand and Market Sentiment - The solar photovoltaic industry's explosive growth has increased silver demand, with photovoltaic silver paste accounting for over 20% of total silver demand [2]. - The global silver supply-demand gap is projected to exceed 5,000 tons by 2025, driven by demand from electric vehicles and 5G electronics [2]. - The gold-silver ratio has decreased from over 100 to below 90, indicating a relative undervaluation of silver compared to gold, attracting more investment into silver [2]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Policy - Upcoming U.S. PCE data is a focal point for the market, with expectations that core PCE year-on-year growth will fall to around 3.0%, aligning with the Fed's "soft landing" scenario [3]. - Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell have shifted market expectations towards a dovish stance, with significant anticipation for rate cuts in September and December 2025 [3][4]. - The market has nearly fully priced in the Fed's expected rate cuts, leading to a cautious outlook on the continued rebound of precious metals [4]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook for Gold and Silver - In the context of ongoing geopolitical instability and the trend of "de-dollarization," central bank gold purchases are expected to support long-term gold price increases [4][5]. - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset remains strong due to uncertainties in U.S. trade policies and geopolitical tensions, which are likely to benefit gold prices [5]. - The low correlation of gold with other asset classes enhances its appeal for portfolio diversification and risk hedging, sustaining ongoing demand for gold investments [5].

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Direction - The Federal Reserve is likely to announce a rate cut of at least 25 basis points at the upcoming meeting on September 17, reflecting strong market confidence in a shift in monetary policy [1][8] - The dual mandate of the Federal Reserve focuses on maximizing employment and price stability, with current conditions presenting a dilemma of a weakening labor market and rising inflation pressures [2][3] - Powell emphasized that the rising risks in the labor market are a key factor driving the shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [2][3] Group 2: Labor Market Conditions - The July employment report indicated a significant slowdown, with only 73,000 non-farm jobs added, well below the expected range of 110,000 to 130,000 [3] - The unemployment rate increased slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%, still at historically low levels, but the rising trend in layoffs and unemployment poses a risk to economic stability [3][9] - Powell warned that the risks of rising layoffs and unemployment highlight the urgency for a rate cut to support the labor market [3][9] Group 3: Inflation Trends - The core PCE price index recorded 2.7% in May 2025, still above the 2% target, indicating persistent inflationary pressures despite a significant drop from the 5.5% peak in 2022 [4][5] - The July CPI remained stable at 2.7%, slightly below expectations, while the core CPI rose to 3.1%, suggesting accumulating price pressures [4][5] - The PPI report showed a 0.9% increase in July, the largest monthly rise since March 2022, driven by tariff policies, which could lead to further inflationary pressures [5][6] Group 4: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Powell's speech significantly boosted market confidence, with the probability of a September rate cut rising from 76% to 89.2%, leading to increases in stock, gold, silver, and cryptocurrency prices [8] - The upcoming August employment and CPI data will be critical in determining the scale of the rate cut, with expectations leaning towards a 25 basis point reduction [8][9] - A 25 basis point cut is expected to support the labor market but may also heighten inflation risks, necessitating careful monitoring of economic indicators [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - Recent market expectations regarding a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have increased, drawing investor attention to gold prices after a period of adjustment [1] Group 1: Gold Pricing Dynamics - The core anchor for gold pricing is the real interest rate level, which is the nominal interest rate minus inflation expectations [3] - When the market anticipates the end of the Fed's rate hike cycle and potential rate cuts, downward pressure on nominal rates increases, which could lower real interest rates if inflation does not decline rapidly [3] - A weaker dollar, resulting from reduced interest rate attractiveness, may indirectly benefit gold prices [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - Current gold holding data, such as ETF holdings and futures positions, indicate that market sentiment remains cautious, lacking a consensus bullish outlook [3] - Gold prices need to effectively break through key resistance areas to confirm a momentum shift [3] Group 3: Investment Strategy Considerations - Investors should differentiate between "event-driven trading" and "trend opportunities" when participating in gold based on rate cut expectations [3] - For short-term volatility based on policy signals, close monitoring of economic data and Fed statements is essential, along with strict stop-loss discipline [3] - For medium-term opportunities based on declining real interest rates, attention should be paid to inflation resilience and the long-term trend of the dollar [3] Group 4: Risk Management and Market Volatility - During periods of policy transition, fluctuating market expectations may exacerbate volatility [5] - Investors are advised to maintain patience and focus on the relationship between real interest rate changes and gold price movements, rather than solely betting on the timing of policy shifts [5] - Balancing portfolio allocation and strict risk management remain foundational strategies to navigate uncertainty [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent shift in global risk appetite driven by expectations of a change in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, leading to a rebound in major stock indices and significant movements in commodities and currencies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Major stock indices globally experienced a rebound, with the Russian RTS index leading gains due to anticipated meetings between US and Russian leaders [2]. - In developed markets, US stocks saw a comprehensive recovery, with the Nasdaq rising by 3.9%, S&P 500 by 2.4%, and Dow Jones by 1.3% [2]. - Emerging markets also showed strong performance, particularly the Russian RTS which increased by 7.9%, and Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh index which surged by 6.0% [2]. Group 2: Bond Market - The Chinese bond market exhibited a "bull steepening" trend, with the yield curve shifting downward and the 10Y-2Y spread widening [3]. - In contrast, the US bond market showed a "bear flattening" characteristic, with the yield curve moving upward and a near 90% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [3]. Group 3: Commodities and Currencies - Oil prices faced downward pressure due to OPEC+'s decision to significantly increase production in September, reversing previous cuts and alleviating supply concerns [3]. - The British pound strengthened despite the Bank of England's cautious rate cut, as inflation rates rebounded to 3.6% in May and June [3].

Core Insights - The public fund industry in China performed well in the first half of 2025, with a total profit of 639.1 billion yuan, indicating a return of the profit-making effect [1] - Among fund management companies, FuGuo Fund ranked fourth, generating 29.832 billion yuan in profits for investors in the first half of 2025 [1] - The second quarter saw a total profit of 386.3 billion yuan across public funds, with 11 fund managers exceeding 10 billion yuan in profits [1] Passive Index Funds - Passive index funds follow market trends to capture industry beta returns, focusing on a "riding the wave" strategy [2] Active Management - Active management funds rely on the fund manager's skills in stock selection, timing, and risk control [3] - FuGuo Fund's "Precision Medicine" managed by Zhao Wei earned 920 million yuan by focusing on the innovative drug sector [3] - Other notable funds include "Military Industry Theme" and "Consumer Select 30," each generating over 200 million yuan in profits [3] Fund Performance Data - The top-performing funds in Q2 include: - Hong Kong Internet ETF: 2.181 billion yuan - Military Industry Leader ETF: 1.546 billion yuan - FuGuo Precision Medicine: 920 million yuan - FuGuo Wealth: 705 million yuan - Government Bond ETF: 646 million yuan [4] Market Outlook - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift is a key variable for the market, with potential interest rate cuts depending on inflation and unemployment trends [9] - The innovative drug sector is expected to enter a phase of global value realization, with a focus on companies with licensing potential [11] - The military industry has shown signs of recovery, driven by geopolitical events and positive market expectations [18] - The consumer sector is being closely monitored for investment opportunities, particularly in emerging consumption areas [21]

Group 1 - The US stock market indices collectively rose, with the Nasdaq increasing nearly 1% and reaching a new closing high, driven by strong performance from large tech stocks and rising expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift [1][2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.47% to 44,175.61 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.78% to 6,389.45 points, and the Nasdaq gained 0.98% to 21,450.02 points [2] - Major tech stocks saw significant gains, with Apple rising over 4%, Google and Tesla up more than 2%, and Nvidia increasing over 1% [3] Group 2 - Bank stocks experienced collective gains, with Bank of America rising over 2% and Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo all increasing by more than 1% [4] - Energy stocks also saw widespread increases, with Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and Occidental Petroleum all rising by more than 1% [5] Group 3 - In June, US imports fell sharply by 8.4% year-on-year, significantly exceeding expectations, attributed to tariff increases by the Trump administration [8] - The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts a 5.6% decline in total imports for the year 2025 compared to the previous year, warning that tariffs are driving up prices and reducing the variety of goods available [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The main focus of precious metals is on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and rhythm. Multiple Fed officials are open to a shift to loose monetary policy, strongly supporting precious metal prices. If economic growth data resonates with the July US non-farm payrolls data, it may accelerate the Fed's monetary policy shift to a looser stance and further push up gold prices [8]. - The trading logic of silver is generally in sync with that of gold, with future loose expectations on the macro level as the main line, and its pricing weight is higher than the supply-demand fundamentals of silver. With the logic of the gold-silver ratio returning, silver prices are expected to continue the upward trend [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Summary - Macro: Fed officials' statements indicate that the expectation of a shift to loose monetary policy within the Fed is rising, which is expected to support precious metal prices. Geopolitical risk premium has a relatively low weight in precious metal pricing, and the short-term main line lies in the Fed's loose expectations and rhythm [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On August 6, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 782.80 yuan/gram and closed at 783.68 yuan/gram, a change of 0.15% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 781.96 yuan/gram, down 0.22% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,104.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,182.00 yuan/kg, a change of 1.18% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 372,060 lots, and the open interest was 373,376 lots. The night session closed at 9,180 yuan/kg, down 0.02% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On August 6, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.22%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.53%, up 3 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Position and Trading Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On August 6, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 249 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 336 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 239,517 lots, a change of -0.54% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 1,516 lots, and the short positions decreased by 1,708 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 532,607 lots, a change of 17.04% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The position of the gold ETF was 952.79 tons, down 3.15 tons from the previous trading day. The position of the silver ETF was 15,112.28 tons, up 67.8 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On August 6, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was -10.74 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -706.17 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 85.35, a change of -1.02% from the previous trading day. The foreign gold-silver ratio was 90.05, a change of -0.41% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On August 6, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 29,226 kg, a change of -14.53% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 231,594 kg, a change of -14.47% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 9,764 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 15,690 kg [7] Strategy - Gold: The Au2510 contract's oscillation range may be between 765 yuan/gram and 795 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: The Ag2510 contract's oscillation range may be between 8,950 yuan/kg and 9,450 yuan/kg [9]