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《能源化工》日报-20250722
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 13:14
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - Valuation shows marginal profit gradually recovering, with synchronized contraction in PP and PE supply - demand, inventory accumulation, and a weak demand trend. PP maintenance has peaked, while PE maintenance first rises then falls. There are few import offers, and some Middle - East devices are shut down due to power issues. There will be a seasonal recovery in demand at the end of July. There is a risk of capacity withdrawal for devices over 20 years old. Strategy: unilateral short - term opportunity for PP with a bearish bias, and range - bound buying for PE [2] Methanol Industry - Inland prices fluctuate slightly. Supply has high maintenance losses in July but with expected复产. Demand is restricted by the traditional off - season of downstream industries, and new capacity launch affects the market. At the port, the basis strengthens. Overseas Iranian device production is back, with expected imports of 125 million tons in July and a slight decline in August. After MTO profit repair, maintenance is uncertain. There will be inventory accumulation from July to August, and prices are weak [5] Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene improves in July. Although there are production news releases, the impact on loss volume is limited. Downstream price transmission is poor except for styrene. With high import expectations and high port inventory, its own driving force is limited. However, it may be boosted in the short - term, but the rebound space is limited. For styrene, the industry profit is maintained, and the operating rate is high. The supply - demand margin is repaired, but the supply - demand outlook is weak, and port inventory increases. It is boosted in the short - term but has limited upside [7] Polyester Industry Chain - In July, the PX supply - demand is good overall. Although some factory loads fluctuate, the overall supply impact is limited. Downstream PTA has increased maintenance expectations after significant processing fee compression, and terminal demand feedback is negative. PX demand support is weak. Considering new PTA capacity, the PX supply - demand outlook is tight, and PXN has some support. It may be boosted in the short - term but is restricted by demand and oil price expectations. For PTA, the load is around 80%, and with new device expectations and weak terminal demand, the supply - demand outlook is weak. It may be supported in the short - term by market sentiment. For other products like MEG, short - fiber, and bottle - chip, their supply - demand and price trends are analyzed respectively [11] Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices fluctuated weakly. The upper pressure comes from US tariff threats and EU sanctions on Russia, while the lower support is from the diesel fundamentals. Diesel cracking profit in Europe reaches a high level since 2024, indicating a tight medium - heavy crude oil structure. Refinery high - operating rates lead to counter - seasonal diesel inventory drawdown. Oil prices show a wide - range oscillation pattern, and the short - term direction depends on sanctions' impact on Russian supply and tariff risks [32] Chlor - Alkali Industry - For caustic soda, the futures price is boosted by policies, and there is an expectation of industry capacity reduction. The spot trading is average, and the price in Guangdong drops. Low - grade caustic soda has low inventory due to alumina demand, but non - aluminum downstream resists high prices. The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and there is an upward price expectation in the peak season. For PVC, the futures price is also boosted by policies, but the spot market has little change. The supply - demand is in an off - season with increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the inventory slightly accumulates. Short - term trading is mainly driven by macro - sentiment [36][37] Urea Industry - The core driver of the urea futures is macro - policy. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's policies are interpreted as beneficial for the urea industry, which may reduce large - particle supply. Although export data shows weakness, policy news boosts market sentiment. The futures price rise stimulates spot trading, and the basis has a repair expectation. In the short - term, the capacity reduction probability is low, but in the long - term, there may be a transformation in urea production capacity structure. The market should focus on export quota execution and trading expectations [41][42] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of L and PP increased on July 21 compared to July 18, with varying increase rates. The basis and price differences between different contracts also changed [2] - **Supply and Demand**: PE and PP device operating rates decreased slightly, and downstream operating rates also showed a downward trend. Inventories of PE and PP increased [2] Methanol Industry - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of methanol changed slightly. The basis strengthened at the port, and regional price differences also had some changes [5] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply in July had high maintenance losses but with expected复产. Demand was restricted by the off - season. At the port, imports were expected to increase in July and decrease slightly in August, and there would be inventory accumulation from July to August [5] Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices**: Prices of pure benzene, styrene, and related products increased on July 21 compared to July 18, and the cash - flow and price differences also changed [7] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene improved in July, but downstream price transmission was poor. For styrene, the industry profit was maintained, and the operating rate was high, but the supply - demand outlook was weak [7] Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: Prices of upstream raw materials such as oil, PX, and downstream polyester products changed slightly on July 21 compared to July 18. Processing fees and price differences also had corresponding changes [11] - **Supply and Demand**: PX supply - demand was good overall, but downstream PTA had increased maintenance expectations. For other products like MEG, short - fiber, and bottle - chip, their supply - demand situations were analyzed respectively [11] Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: Brent, WTI, and SC oil prices decreased slightly on July 22 compared to July 21. Price differences between different contracts and between different oil types also changed [32] - **Supply and Demand**: The upper pressure on oil prices came from macro - factors, while the lower support was from diesel fundamentals. Diesel inventory showed counter - seasonal drawdown [32] Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: Prices of caustic soda and PVC futures and spot products changed on July 21 compared to July 18, and the basis and price differences also had corresponding changes [36] - **Supply and Demand**: For caustic soda, the supply - demand contradiction was limited, and for PVC, it was in an off - season with increasing supply and decreasing demand [36][37] Urea Industry - **Prices**: Spot prices of urea in different regions increased slightly on July 21 compared to July 18. The basis and price differences also changed [40] - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production decreased slightly, and the plant - level inventory decreased, while the port inventory increased [41]
2025年度·第16期:能源、航运策略周观察
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 11:10
Report Industry Investment Rating - The oil market rating for the current week has been adjusted from relatively strong to neutral and volatile [5] Core Views - **Crude Oil**: In Q2, global oil inventories increased by 2.7%, accelerating marginally from 2% in Q1. In the first week of Q3, overall inventories decreased by 0.3% due to crude oil destocking and refined oil stockpiling. The upward drive of strong real - world factors on oil prices may be weakening, and the further upside for Brent above $70 per barrel is limited [5] - **Fuel Oil**: Last week, global fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.7% week - on - week and remained at a low level. The spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils in Singapore widened [5] - **Asphalt**: In June, refinery production exceeded the plan, breaking the de - stocking pattern. The increase in asphalt supply is still uncertain, and demand recovery is expected to be delayed [5] - **Natural Gas**: High temperatures have boosted market demand. In the US, the upside is limited before further strengthening of power demand. In Europe, the market is expected to remain volatile [8] - **LPG**: Middle East production pressure persists, and the overseas price continues to be weak. The domestic market is currently experiencing weak supply and demand, with the futures market showing weak volatility [8] - **Container Shipping Index (European Route)**: The spot price was stronger than expected last week. The short - term futures market will fluctuate with the spot price. In the medium term, freight rates are likely to decline seasonally [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Energy & Shipping Price Trends - **Energy Commodities**: Last week, crude - related products continued to rise, with Brent up 3.1%. By - products LPG and fuel oil were weak. The natural gas market showed mixed performance, with European gas up 5.2% and US gas down 0.89%. The steam coal market continued to rebound [4] - **Shipping**: European route quotes mostly remained stable in late July. US route freight rates bottomed out and stabilized, with SCFI West & East US routes up 5% and 1.2% week - on - week respectively [4] Crude Oil & Oil Products Chain Key Volume and Price Data - **Price Trends**: The crude oil monthly spread declined from a high. The premium of domestic futures was strong. The spot premium of crude oil declined slightly from a high [10] - **Crack Spreads**: Overseas gasoline and diesel crack spreads fluctuated, and the crack spread of high - sulfur fuel oil weakened. Domestic energy - chemical product crack spreads continued to decline with the rebound of crude oil [12] - **Global Oil Consumption High - Frequency Indicators**: The 7 - day average of global commercial flights was down 1.2% year - on - year. The 4 - week average of US refined oil apparent demand was down 1.6% year - on - year [13] - **China's Oil Consumption High - Frequency Indicators**: China's ground congestion index was flat year - on - year, and highway truck traffic was up 0.8% year - on - year. The number of domestic flights was up 2% year - on - year [17] - **Refining Profits & Refinery Operations**: The comprehensive refining profits of refineries in three regions and the refining margins of Chinese refineries are presented in the report, along with refinery capacity utilization rates [19] - **China & India Procurement Shipping Schedules**: In June, China's above - scale crude oil processing volume was up 8.5% year - on - year, and imports were up 7.4% year - on - year. India's crude oil imports and refining product demand also showed certain trends [22] - **Major Oil - Producing Countries' Shipping Schedules**: The shipping schedules of major oil - producing countries such as OPEC 9 countries, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iran are presented [24] - **US Crude Oil Production**: Data on US crude oil production, including production volume, four - week average year - on - year growth rate, and rig counts, are provided [26] - **Crude Oil Inventories**: Data on on - land commercial inventories, floating storage inventories, and total inventories of crude oil are presented [28] - **Refined Oil Inventories**: Data on global refined oil inventories, including light distillates, diesel, kerosene, and fuel oil, are provided [31] - **Fund Positions**: The relative net long positions of management funds in Brent and WTI crude oil are presented [33] Asphalt Key Volume and Price Data - **High - Frequency Supply and Demand**: The shipment volume of domestic refinery asphalt increased slightly week - on - week, and the cumulative year - on - year increase decreased by 1 percentage point to 7% compared to the end of June [5] - **Inventory**: Data on domestic asphalt inventories, including refinery inventories and trader inventories, are provided [38] Natural Gas Key Volume and Price Data - **Core Spreads**: Data on key spreads such as the TTF - balance spread, JKM - TTF spread, and HH forward curve are presented [41] - **Short - Term Temperature Forecast**: Short - term temperature forecasts for regions such as Northwest Europe, the US, and China are provided [46] - **European Consumption and LNG Imports**: Data on natural gas consumption and LNG imports in Europe are presented [49] - **US Production and Global LNG Exports**: Data on US natural gas production and LNG exports from the US, Qatar, and Australia are provided [51] - **Inventory Levels and Change Rates**: Data on natural gas inventory levels and change rates in the US and Europe are presented [53] LPG Key Volume and Price Data - **Core Spreads**: Data on key spreads such as the PG - FEI spread, ether - post - carbon - four - civil - gas spread, and Far - East propane - naphtha spread are presented [55] - **Inventory Levels**: Data on propane inventories in the US, refinery inventories in China, and port storage capacity utilization rates in South and East China are provided [57] Steam Coal Key Volume and Price Data - **Trade Spreads and Profits**: Data on inland trade shipping profits, high - calorie coal premiums at Bohai Rim ports, and the import advantages of imported coal are presented [59] - **Upstream Supply**: Data on the weekly production of 442 coal mines in the Three Western Regions, Ordos coal mine operating rates, and China's imported steam coal weekly shipments are provided [62] - **Mid - Stream Transportation**: Data on the supply - demand surplus, number of ships, and inventories at four Bohai Rim ports, as well as inland port inventories, are presented [64] - **Downstream Manufacturing & Construction Industry Prosperity**: Data on sub - industry PMIs, real estate sales areas, cement and coal - to - methanol operating rates, and steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rates are provided [66] - **Downstream Daily Consumption & Inventory**: Data on the daily consumption and inventory of eight coastal provinces, seventeen inland provinces, and twenty - five provinces across the country are presented [68][69] Container Shipping (European Route) Key Volume and Price Data - **Price Trends**: The spot price was stronger than expected last week. The short - term futures market will fluctuate with the spot price, and the basis will gradually converge [71] - **Capacity Turnover**: Data on the idle capacity, sailing speed of container ships, and the scale of container ships in ports in Northwest Europe and Asia are presented [76]
光大期货能化商品日报-20250710
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 03:25
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products are rated as "Oscillating" [1][2][3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices oscillated. The EIA data showed an increase in US crude oil inventories last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased. The market demand is strong as it digests OPEC+'s production increase without inventory accumulation. With OPEC+ increasing supply, the demand remains resilient, leading to an oscillating and slightly upward - trending oil price [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rose on Wednesday. The domestic refinery operating rate decreased slightly. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is expected to be tight, while the supply pressure will continue to suppress the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market. In the short term, it will mainly oscillate following the cost - end crude oil [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract rose on Wednesday. The inventory level was stable week - on - week, and the operating rate increased. The impact of the adjustment of the consumption tax deduction policy has not yet appeared. The supply in July is stable with a slight increase. The demand in the south is slowly recovering, while the rainfall in the north hinders demand. It will oscillate following the cost - end crude oil [2]. - **Polyester**: The prices of polyester products such as TA, EG, and PX rose slightly on Wednesday. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. TA inventory may gradually accumulate, and there is a strong expectation of inventory accumulation for ethylene glycol in the third quarter, with its price under pressure [2]. - **Rubber**: The prices of rubber products such as RU, NR, and BR rose slightly on Wednesday. The rubber - producing areas are in full - scale tapping, raw material prices are loose, downstream tire operating rates declined, and inventory slightly increased. It is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to rubber purchase and storage news and tariff negotiations between Vietnam and the US [3]. - **Methanol**: The production of Iranian devices is gradually recovering. Although the short - term arrival volume has not increased much, the long - term arrival volume will increase. The short - term supply shortage has eased, and the price has returned to an oscillating trend [3]. - **Polyolefins**: The upstream is still in the maintenance season, with little change in overall supply. As the off - season arrives, downstream operating rates have declined, and enterprises purchase on demand. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [4]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: Recently, the profit of chlor - alkali has decreased, and enterprise operating rates have declined. Although demand has not improved significantly, the fundamentals have not deteriorated. Before the market provides obvious opportunities, short - selling is not recommended, and attention should be paid to the impact of macro - policies [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI August contract closed up $0.05 to $68.38 per barrel, a 0.07% increase; Brent September contract closed up $0.04 to $70.19 per barrel, a 0.06% increase; SC2508 closed at 520.1 yuan per barrel, up 4.4 yuan per barrel, a 0.85% increase. US crude oil inventories increased by 7.1 million barrels to 426 million barrels last week, far exceeding expectations [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contract FU2509 of high - sulfur fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.51% to 2982 yuan per ton; the main contract LU2509 of low - sulfur fuel oil rose 0.82% to 3692 yuan per ton. As of July 9, the operating rate of domestic refineries was 63.61%, down 0.46 percentage points from last week [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract BU2509 of asphalt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.86% to 3623 yuan per ton. The total inventory level of domestic refineries was 27.91%, unchanged week - on - week; the social inventory rate was 35.81%, up 0.33% week - on - week; the operating rate of asphalt plants was 35.53%, up 2.72% week - on - week [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4718 yuan per ton, up 0.17%; EG2509 closed at 4283 yuan per ton, up 0.37%; PX futures main contract 509 closed at 6724 yuan per ton, up 0.42%. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were about 40% [2]. - **Rubber**: The main contract RU2509 of natural rubber rose 60 yuan per ton to 14045 yuan per ton; NR main contract rose 25 yuan per ton to 12095 yuan per ton; BR main contract rose 5 yuan per ton to 11310 yuan per ton. As of July 6, the social inventory of natural rubber decreased by 0.02 million tons, a 0.02% decrease [3]. - **Methanol**: The spot price in Taicang was 2385 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 1962.5 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was 275 - 279 US dollars per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was 339 - 344 US dollars per ton [3]. - **Polyolefins**: The mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 7050 - 7180 yuan per ton. The profit of oil - based PP was - 341.35 yuan per ton, and the profit of coal - based PP was 911.73 yuan per ton [4]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The price of PVC in East China was stable, with the mainstream price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material at 4740 - 4840 yuan per ton, and the mainstream price of ethylene - based material at 4800 - 5150 yuan per ton [4]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - This part provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on July 10, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [5]. 3.3 Market News - The Red Sea, a global important shipping route, was attacked again last week after months of calm. The attacker is suspected to be the Yemeni Houthi rebels supported by Iran, and a cargo ship sank, causing at least 4 crew members to die [7]. - The EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories increased last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased [7]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: It shows the closing price trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [9][11][13][15][17][19] - **Main Contract Basis**: It presents the basis trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [22][23][24][25] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the spreads between different contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [36][37][38][39][41][42][44][45][47][48][49][51][52] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spreads between different varieties such as crude oil's internal and external markets, B - W spread of crude oil, high - and low - sulfur spread of fuel oil, etc. [53][54][55] - **Production Profits**: It shows the production profit trends of products such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [58][59][60][61][62] 3.5 Research Team Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Energy and Chemicals, with over ten years of experience in futures and derivatives market research [64]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain [65]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, good at data analysis and logical reasoning [66]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in combining financial theory and industrial operations [67].
海外宏观情绪偏暖,原油强于化
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 03:59
1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives mid - term outlooks for each energy and chemical product, including "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", and "oscillating strongly" [278]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overseas macro - sentiment is warm, and crude oil is stronger than chemicals. The extension of the "reciprocal tariff" suspension period by the US boosts the risk appetite of the commodity market, and the imbalance in crude oil inventory accumulation and the strength of diesel cracking spreads lead to the limited impact of OPEC+ production increase on oil prices [1]. - The domestic chemical industry continues to oscillate and is looking for a new direction. Most energy and chemical products are currently showing weak supply - demand trends, with relatively small inventory pressure, and the fluctuation of the cost - end crude oil becomes the dominant factor [2]. - It is advisable to adopt an oscillating mindset towards the energy and chemical industry and wait for new supply - demand drivers [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News - Houthi rebels attacked a Liberian - flagged cargo ship in the Red Sea, causing at least two crew members to die. - Russia's daily crude oil shipments dropped to 312 million barrels as of July 6, the lowest since February, a 3% decrease from the previous period. - Ecuador's state - owned oil company declared force majeure due to potential damage to two parallel oil pipelines caused by heavy rainfall, and oil production decreased from 46 million barrels on July 1 to 33 million barrels on July 2. - EIA predicts that US oil production in 2025 will be 13.37 million barrels per day, lower than the previous forecast, and raises the expected average price of Brent crude oil futures in 2025 to $68.89 per barrel [5]. 3.2 Variety Analysis Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: EIA's downward adjustment of production forecasts and Red Sea geopolitical events briefly boosted oil prices. - **Logic**: Macro and refined oil performances are good, but the upside space is limited. The reduction in Russia's seaborne exports, the increase in US crude oil inventories, and the decrease in refined oil inventories affect the market [4][6]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The downward pressure on asphalt futures prices is relatively large. - **Logic**: OPEC+ over - production, sufficient domestic asphalt raw material supply, and weak demand lead to an over - estimated absolute price of asphalt [8][10]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The downward pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices is relatively large. - **Logic**: OPEC+ over - production, the weakening of power generation demand, and the increase in import tariffs lead to an increase in supply and a decrease in demand [11]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices follow the oscillation of crude oil. - **Logic**: It follows crude oil, but faces shipping demand decline, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, with low valuation [12]. LPG - **Viewpoint**: The cost - end support weakens, the fundamental pattern of supply - demand remains loose, and the PG futures market may oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: The reduction of CP prices, the accumulation of US propane inventories, and weak domestic demand lead to a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [12][14]. PX - **Viewpoint**: The terminal start - up declines, and PX oscillates weakly. - **Logic**: OPEC+ is expected to maintain production increase, and the terminal market support is poor, with a downward trend in absolute prices [15]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: Terminal negative feedback causes PTA to oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: The expected weakening of the crude oil market, the increase in PTA spot circulation, and the possible reduction of downstream polyester factory production lead to a decline in the market [15]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Two sets of devices are planned to be put into production, and styrene oscillates weakly. - **Logic**: The supply - demand of styrene itself is expected to weaken, and port inventories accumulate, leading to a decline in spot prices [16]. Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: Overseas device restarts accelerate, and ethylene glycol continues to oscillate. - **Logic**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the 09 contract may continue to oscillate, while the 01 contract may face more pressure [18][19]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The basis is stable, sales are sluggish, and short - fiber continues to oscillate. - **Logic**: Short - fiber sales have been weak for two weeks, and the downstream demand may reach an inflection point [19][20]. Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: It follows the fluctuation of raw materials, and the processing fee remains low. - **Logic**: Bottle chips are in the maintenance cycle, and the processing fee has limited downward space [20][22]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The port price continues to decline, and methanol oscillates downward. - **Logic**: Supply contraction during the maintenance period, weak terminal demand in the off - season, and the return of Iranian device operation lead to price oscillation [24]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: Supply and demand are both weak, and exports support the market. Urea may oscillate in the short term. - **Logic**: Indian urea import tenders boost the market, but supply and demand are both weak, and exports support the price [25]. LLDPE - **Viewpoint**: The US delays the tariff time - point, and LLDPE oscillates. - **Logic**: Oil price oscillation, weak raw material support, high supply, and low downstream demand lead to oscillation [27]. PP - **Viewpoint**: Maintenance slightly increases, and PP oscillates in the short term. - **Logic**: Oil price oscillation, weak cost - end support, high supply, and low downstream demand lead to oscillation [28]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: Low valuation and weak supply - demand lead to PVC oscillating. - **Logic**: New capacity is expected to be put into production, demand is in the off - season, and exports are difficult to increase, but market sentiment warms up [31]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot rebound slows down, and caustic soda oscillates. - **Logic**: The increase in comprehensive cost provides support, while the procurement of large enterprises and the weakening of downstream demand limit the increase [32]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: Different varieties have different cross - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 1.14 with a change of - 0.01 [36]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, like asphalt's basis being 236 with a change of - 18 and 91740 warehouse receipts [37]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: There are cross - variety spread data and changes, such as the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread being - 254 with a change of 30 [39]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report lists the basis and spread monitoring of various chemicals such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data summaries are not provided in the text [40][52][63].
光大期货能化商品日报-20250704
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 02:56
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Report's Core View - The prices of most energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. For crude oil, due to macro - uncertainties and the fading of geopolitical premiums, it will continue to fluctuate pending the OPEC meeting's production increase decision. High - sulfur fuel oil may have a short - term rebound, but it is recommended to short the high - sulfur cracking spread on rallies. For asphalt, it is recommended to short the cracking spread on rallies. Polyester products like TA and EG are also expected to fluctuate. Rubber is expected to fluctuate weakly, and methanol and other products will maintain a fluctuating trend [1][3][4][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI 8 - month contract closed down 0.45 dollars to 67 dollars/barrel, with a decline of 0.67%. Brent 9 - month contract closed down 0.31 dollars to 68.8 dollars/barrel, with a decline of 0.45%. SC2508 closed up 3.3 yuan/barrel to 507 yuan/barrel, with an increase of 0.66%. The US June non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. The Fed Chairman Powell said that a July rate cut is "still under consideration". With macro - uncertainties and the fading of geopolitical premiums, the oil price will continue to fluctuate pending the OPEC meeting's production increase decision [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed up 1.05% to 2987 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2509 closed up 0.89% to 3623 yuan/ton. As of July 2, the fuel oil inventory in Fujairah decreased by 139.1 million barrels (13.46%) week - on - week. The high - sulfur fundamentals are slightly stronger than the low - sulfur ones. High - sulfur prices may have a short - term rebound, but it is recommended to short the high - sulfur cracking spread on rallies. The domestic low - sulfur supply remains sufficient, and the internal - external price difference is expected to remain low [3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed up 0.25% to 3588 yuan/ton. This week, the shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises decreased by 14.3% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate of 69 modified asphalt enterprises decreased by 0.8% week - on - week. The pricing center may shift back to the north after the peak season in the north. It is recommended to short the cracking spread on rallies [3] - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 1% at 4746 yuan/ton, EG2509 closed down 0.26% at 4288 yuan/ton, and PX 509 closed down 0.74% at 6740 yuan/ton. The downstream demand is weak, and the production and sales of polyester yarn are weak. TA and EG prices are expected to fluctuate [4] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contract RU2509 closed down 110 yuan/ton to 14015 yuan/ton. The tire production load decreased, the rubber inventory increased slightly, and the rubber price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - **Methanol**: With the recovery of Iranian plants, the subsequent imports will increase. The MTO profit is being compressed, and the short - term methanol price will maintain a fluctuating trend [5] - **Polyolefins**: The supply is at a high level but the increase is limited, the total inventory is slowly decreasing, and the price center moves with the cost [7] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: As the downstream enters the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, but the arbitrage and hedging space is narrowing. The PVC price is expected to continue to fluctuate [7] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes for various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on July 3 and July 2, 2025 [9] 3. Market News - Iran's Foreign Minister said that Iran will continue to engage with the UN nuclear watchdog. The US June non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, and the Fed Chairman Powell said that a July rate cut is "still under consideration" [11] 4. Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13][14][15] 4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts for various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. over a certain period [33][34][35] 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts between different contracts for products like fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [45][46][50] 4.4 Inter - product Spreads - It includes the spread and ratio charts between different products such as crude oil internal - external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [61][63][65] 4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the cash - flow and profit charts for products like ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [70] 5. Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [77][78][79]
燃料油早报-20250627
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 02:17
Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoint - This week, the high - sulfur cracking was volatile, with crude oil rising significantly. High - sulfur fuel oil, with a large proportion of Iranian supply, performed well in oil product profits. The 380 - cst monthly spread was volatile, at $7.5 for the 8 - 9 month spread, and the basis was also volatile. The domestic and foreign spreads of FU showed differentiation between near and far months. The 07 contract dropped to around -$7 (with expected large delivery volume), and the 09 contract fluctuated around $8. The 0.5 - cst cracking in Singapore declined, and the monthly spread was volatile. This week, Singapore's land inventory decreased, high - sulfur floating storage increased, low - sulfur floating storage increased, ARA's inventory decreased, floating storage inventory was volatile, and the US inventory decreased. Saudi Arabia's shipments decreased month - on - month, being moderately high compared to the same period, while Russia's shipments were neutral. Iran and Iraq accounted for about 15% - 20% of Singapore's high - sulfur imports, mainly affecting some bunkering and refinery feedstock in the Asia - Pacific region and not eligible for physical delivery on the futures market. It is expected that Iran's shipments will decline in the future due to US sanctions, and if the risk events in the Strait of Hormuz escalate, the impact will be greater. Recently, high - sulfur fuel oil is still in the peak power - generation season, with the overseas market operating strongly. The domestic and foreign near - month contracts of FU are under pressure, with low valuation and continued gaming. For far - month contracts, attention should be paid to the impact of supply disruptions. The domestic and foreign valuations of LU are high [6][7]. 2. Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | Change from 2025/06/20 - 2025/06/26 | | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF Swap M1 | -0.89 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO Swap M1 | 5.33 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -0.75 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 7.43 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -2.10 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 0.92 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 6.22 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | Change from 2025/06/20 - 2025/06/26 | | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 2.38 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 2.16 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | -3.21 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | -0.81 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | 0.89 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | 2.78 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Product | Change from 2025/06/20 - 2025/06/26 | | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 3.56 | | FOB VLSFO | -4.12 | | 380 - cst Basis | 2.60 | | High - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | -1.3 | | Low - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | -6.1 | [5] Domestic FU and LU Contract Data | Contract | Change from 2025/06/20 - 2025/06/26 | | --- | --- | | FU 01 | -11 | | FU 05 | -2 | | FU 09 | 4 | | FU 01 - 05 | -9 | | FU 05 - 09 | -6 | | FU 09 - 01 | 15 | | LU 01 | -9 | | LU 05 | 0 | | LU 09 | -16 | | LU 01 - 05 | -9 | | LU 05 - 09 | 16 | | LU 09 - 01 | -7 | [5][6]
《能源化工》日报-20250627
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 02:10
广发期货投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 r泉期货 GE ENTURES 中国成品油市场周度数据 苗扬 投资咨询号: Z0020680 万吨 F F END THE DE F 3500 3400 3300 3200 3100 3000 2900 2800 2700 2600 2500 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2020 -2021 - 2022 == 2023 == 2023 == =2024 = -2025 元/咖 PECE 3 T = 3 PHONE 2000 1500 1000 500 0 -500 -1000 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2021 = 2022 = -2023 - =2024 · -2025 HERE FEST FOR S 米 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 万吨 III Savis Ranger 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1月 2月 3月 ...
燃料油早报-20250625
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 02:20
| 日期 | FOB 380cst | FOB VLSFO | 380基差 | 高硫内外价差 | 低硫内外价差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/06/18 | 486.91 | 548.13 | 7.55 | 9.2 | 20.0 | | 2025/06/19 | 485.32 | 550.77 | 4.65 | 7.5 | 20.4 | | 2025/06/20 | 479.12 | 550.33 | 2.70 | 8.3 | 16.2 | | 2025/06/23 | 475.90 | 549.45 | 3.65 | 9.1 | 18.8 | | 2025/06/24 | 431.62 | 508.57 | 2.75 | 9.8 | 21.1 | | 变化 | -44.28 | -40.88 | -0.90 | 0.7 | 2.3 | | 国 内 F U | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | FU 01 | FU 05 | FU 09 | FU 01-0 ...
能源日报-20250620
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 12:12
| 《八 国投期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年06月20日 | | 原油 | ★☆★ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆★ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ★☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【沥青】 沥青跟随油价冲高回落。原油配额逐渐消耗下地炼增产缺乏韧性,检修高峰后主营族厂主要计划提升深加工装 置开工,沥青产量增幅预计有限。54家样本炼厂出货量环比持续增长,累计同比转增。压路机销量作为沥青消 赞领先指标,1-4月销量同比大增,终端需求实质提报指日可待。截止6月19日,炼厂及社会周度库存数据总体 延续下滑态势。沥青基本面端的支撑因素仍在,然地缘风险导致的油价上行风险解除前BU裂解承压。 【LP ...
燃料油早报-20250620
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 02:22
燃 料 油 日期 鹿特丹3.5% HSF O掉期 M1 鹿特丹0.5% VLS FO掉期 M1 鹿特丹HSFO-Br ent M1 鹿特丹10ppm G asoil掉期 M1 鹿特丹VLSFO-G O M1 LGO-Brent M1 鹿特丹VLSFO-H SFO M1 2025/06/13 441.01 487.74 -2.60 662.68 -174.94 16.61 46.73 2025/06/16 440.56 480.32 -1.20 661.89 -181.57 17.44 39.76 2025/06/17 458.53 500.63 -1.72 704.24 -203.61 19.66 42.10 2025/06/18 457.84 497.59 -1.57 707.10 -209.51 19.64 39.75 2025/06/19 482.66 518.86 -1.00 764.51 -245.65 24.87 36.20 变化 24.82 21.27 0.57 57.41 -36.14 5.23 -3.55 日期 新加坡380cst M1新加坡180cst M1 新加坡VLSFO M 1 新加 ...