Group 1 - OECD has significantly downgraded the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.9%, attributing this to the impact of Trump's trade policies [1] - The U.S. economic growth forecast has been halved from 2.8% to 1.6%, which is considerably lower than previous predictions made in March [2] - OECD's chief economist warns that the deteriorating economic outlook will affect global growth, with slowing growth and trade contraction impacting income and employment [2] Group 2 - The assessment reveals that Trump's policies are a pressing threat to the global economy, with no immediate solutions in sight [3] - Trade retaliation from U.S. partners, worsening confidence, and financial market re-pricing could exacerbate the situation [3] - The U.S. Federal Reserve Board member indicated that tariff policies will significantly contribute to rising inflation in the U.S. [3] Group 3 - OECD emphasizes that alleviating trade tensions and reducing tariffs are crucial for reviving growth and investment, but the effects of such measures will not be immediate [4] - The organization warns of increasing fiscal risks for countries due to significant spending pressures in defense, climate, and aging populations [5] - OECD calls for governments to cut unnecessary spending and expand the tax base to increase revenue [5]

Core Viewpoint - The OECD report indicates that Trump's confrontational trade policies have led to a global economic downturn, with the U.S. experiencing the most severe impact [1]. Economic Growth Forecast - The OECD has downgraded the global economic growth forecast for 2024 from 3.3% to 2.9%, with the U.S. growth rate significantly reduced from 2.8% to 1.6% [1][2]. - Other regions' forecasts include Euro area at 1.0%, Japan at 0.7%, China at 4.7%, and India at 6.3% for 2025 [2]. Impact of Trade Policies - The report highlights that trade barriers and policy uncertainty are undermining market confidence and investment activities, exacerbating inflationary pressures [1][4]. - OECD Chief Economist Alvaro Pereira states that the global economic outlook is bleak, with reduced trade affecting income and employment growth [4]. Recommendations for Policy - The OECD emphasizes the importance of reaching agreements to ease trade tensions, reduce tariffs, and eliminate trade barriers to restore economic growth and investment [4]. - The report suggests that even if the Trump administration adjusts tariff policies, the positive effects on economic growth and inflation relief will not be immediate due to ongoing policy uncertainty [7]. Additional Economic Concerns - The report warns that the negative impacts of trade policies are compounded by immigration restrictions and large-scale federal layoffs, which may further deteriorate the U.S. economy [7]. - OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann notes that retaliatory measures from trade partners are slowing export growth, and significant immigration slowdown is also a concern [7]. Inflation and Fiscal Risks - The OECD predicts that U.S. inflation will continue to rise, with the Federal Reserve potentially delaying easing until 2026, and warns of the risk of consumer inflation expectations spiraling out of control [7]. - The report also highlights increasing global fiscal risks due to pressures from defense spending, climate governance, and aging populations, recommending governments to cut unnecessary spending and broaden the tax base [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese bond market is facing significant challenges, highlighted by the recent auction of 40-year bonds which saw the lowest bid-to-cover ratio since July 2024, indicating a lack of investor confidence amid ongoing fiscal concerns [1][4][6] Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The yield on 40-year Japanese government bonds rose by 8 basis points to 3.365% before the auction, reflecting market apprehension [3] - The bid-to-cover ratio for the 40-year bond auction was 2.2, down from 2.9 in the previous auction, marking the lowest demand level since November 2024 [4] - The 30-year and 40-year Japanese bond yields reached historical highs of 3.185% and 3.675% respectively, indicating a significant increase in borrowing costs for the government [3][8] Group 2: Global Bond Market Influence - The recent rebound in Japanese bonds on the 27th was short-lived, as concerns over fiscal stability in major economies, particularly Japan and the U.S., continue to exert pressure on bond markets [1][6] - U.S. Treasury yields also fell, with the 10-year yield dropping 6.25 basis points to 4.44%, reflecting a broader trend of declining yields in response to market conditions [1][3] Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts express skepticism about the ability of the Japanese bond market to attract strong demand in future auctions due to persistent fiscal uncertainties and the Bank of Japan's policy changes [5][6] - The ongoing fiscal challenges in both Japan and the U.S. are expected to keep bond markets volatile, with concerns about rising government borrowing costs and the impact of proposed tax reforms in the U.S. [6][7]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reports that global long-term bonds are under pressure, with Japan's 30-year government bond yields continuing to rise, while U.S. fiscal issues remain a concern [1] - The recent soft performance of 20 to 40-year Japanese government bonds is seen as localized, reflecting technical factors, which reduces the urgency for policy adjustments [1][6] - In the context of rising global inflation and high fiscal deficits, Goldman believes that the spillover risks from the sell-off of Japanese long-term bonds are unlikely to dissipate quickly [1][10] Group 2 - The recent market dynamics are driven more by weak demand rather than the scale of deficits, with concerns heightened by Moody's credit rating downgrade and fiscal proposals in the U.S. Congress [2] - Goldman notes that the risks facing U.S. Treasury bonds are more related to a lack of stabilizing forces for overall fiscal trajectories amid declining demand for U.S. assets globally [2][3] - The 20-year U.S. Treasury bonds are particularly sensitive to signals of sustained weak demand, performing poorly relative to 10-year and 30-year bonds [5] Group 3 - A weak auction of 20-year Japanese government bonds has triggered significant price declines, continuing a trend of volatility since April, influenced by fiscal concerns and ongoing quantitative easing [6][10] - The long-term price trends of Japanese government bonds are primarily affected by technical factors, including macro position adjustments and insufficient demand from institutional investors [6] - If the current trend of rising Japanese bond yields continues, it may pose spillover risks to global interest rates, with potential adjustments in supply or monetary policy needed to stabilize the situation [10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the US dollar index are primarily driven by the re-evaluation of US fiscal and credit risks, following Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign rating and concerns over long-term fiscal sustainability [1] Market Analysis - The US dollar index has experienced a decline due to a downgrade in the US sovereign rating by Moody's, with all three major rating agencies rating US debt below AAA [1] - The 30-year US Treasury yield has surpassed 5.1%, while short-term rates remain stable, indicating rising concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability [1] - The derivatives market is seeing a record high of bearish sentiment towards US assets [1] Trade and Capital Flows - In April, the foreign exchange settlement deficit slightly widened, with increased activity in corporate foreign exchange transactions [1] - The merchandise trade surplus has narrowed, with a net inflow of $64.9 billion in cross-border capital, indicating resilient exports but facing uncertainties [1] - Foreign investment in Chinese bonds is improving, as evidenced by a rebound in the custody volume of RMB bonds [1] Economic Indicators - Retail sales and industrial value-added output in April showed year-on-year growth, while the May LPR cut signals support for the RMB [1] - The preliminary May PMI in the US exceeded expectations, but the downgrade by Moody's has weakened confidence in the dollar [1] Currency Outlook - The dollar is expected to maintain a weak position against the RMB in the short term, with potential short-selling opportunities following a period of range-bound trading [1] - The euro may be in a favorable position due to the attractiveness of euro-denominated assets amid US tariff policies [1] - The Japanese yen has shown resilience despite weak fundamentals, influenced by the downgrade of the dollar rating [1] Strategic Considerations - The focus is on the potential for a widening interest rate differential between the US and China due to fiscal risks and policy uncertainties [1] - Attention is also directed towards the progress of US-EU tariff negotiations, which could impact the euro's position [1]

Group 1 - International gold prices opened strong, hovering around the $3,300 mark, supported by various moving averages and buying interest [1] - Gold prices softened on Thursday due to profit-taking after several days of gains, with the dollar continuing its upward trend, increasing by 0.3%, making gold more expensive for international buyers [3] - Despite concerns over U.S. fiscal risks and global bond market volatility supporting safe-haven demand, funds shifted towards the dollar [3] Group 2 - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Federal Reserve Board members are protected from being dismissed by the President, indicating strong resistance against any such efforts [2] - The court's decision highlighted the unique structure of the Federal Reserve as a quasi-private entity, following historical traditions of the first and second banks of the United States [2] - The ruling did not explicitly prohibit the President from dismissing Federal Reserve members, but it suggests that such actions would face significant legal challenges [2]

Core Viewpoint - The surge in U.S. Treasury yields is primarily driven by escalating national debt and weak demand in recent bond auctions, reflecting investors' demand for higher returns amid increasing fiscal risks [1][3][4]. Group 1: Treasury Yield Trends - As of May 22, 2025, the yields for U.S. Treasury bonds are as follows: 10-year at 4.6%, 20-year at 5.109%, and 30-year at 5.10%, indicating a significant rise in yields [3]. - The weak demand for the 20-year Treasury auction, requiring a yield of 5.047% to attract buyers, highlights declining market confidence following Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA1 [3][4]. Group 2: Fiscal Challenges - By 2025, approximately $9.2 trillion of U.S. debt will mature, representing about one-third of all circulating market debt, with an estimated 55% to 60% maturing before July 2025 [4]. - The total U.S. national debt is approximately $36.21 trillion, with interest payments projected to be around $684 billion for the fiscal year 2025, accounting for 16% of total federal spending [4]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise to 124.4% by the end of 2025, indicating that federal borrowing is significantly outpacing economic growth [6]. - Concerns about fiscal sustainability and political gridlock are diminishing long-term confidence in the U.S. dollar, especially with increasing credit quality risks [7]. Group 4: Market Impact - Rising Treasury yields and recent bond market volatility reflect investor concerns about the U.S. government's ability to refinance large debts in a high-interest environment, which could pressure the dollar and stock markets [7]. - The S&P 500 index has shown strong recovery driven by optimism in U.S.-China trade talks, but uncertainties surrounding future negotiations and fiscal concerns pose risks to the sustainability of this rebound [8]. Group 5: Technical Analysis - The S&P 500 index is approaching a critical psychological level at 6000 points, with recent pullbacks indicating weakening momentum [9]. - The 5700-point level is becoming a significant support point; a breach below this level could trigger further downward pressure on the U.S. stock market [9].

智通财经APP获悉，德意志银行表示，美国国债正面临来自日本债券日益激烈的竞争，因为日本债券收益率 上升使其对当地买家更具吸引力。德意志银行外汇研究主管George Saravelos指出，近期美国收益率与日元 汇率出现背离。这是"美国财政风险加速上升的最重要市场指标"，表明谨慎的外国买家正在从美国国债市 场撤资。 摩根士丹利策略师Matthew Hornbach表示，日本30年期国债正在向美国同类国债发出令人担忧的信号。 Saravelos在报告中表示："在美国国债收益率上升的同时，日元也在走强。我们认为，这证明外国投资者对 美国国债市场的参与度正在下降。" 美债收益率与日元汇率出现背离 经济不确定性以及对日本央行减少债券购买的担忧最近对日本债券造成了冲击，导致日本30年期国债收益 率升至1999年有记录以来的最高水平。周二拍卖的日本20年期国债需求创下十多年来的最低水平。 如今，日本收益率上升已经开始吸引先锋集团和RBC BlueBay Asset Management等海外买家，当地买家可能 也会跟进。 就美国债券而言，投资者感到不安，因为美国最新的支出计划可能缺乏资金支持。最重要的是，穆迪最近 取消了美 ...

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff has revised Angola's economic growth forecast downward, indicating potential risks to the country's fiscal performance [1] Economic Outlook - Angola's economic growth has been downgraded, which may lead to challenges in maintaining fiscal stability [1] Fiscal Risks - The downward revision of economic growth poses risks to Angola's fiscal performance, potentially affecting government revenues and expenditures [1]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump criticizes President Biden for placing the nation in financial and fiscal risk [1] Group 1 - Trump claims that Biden's policies have led to increased national debt and financial instability [1] - The former president emphasizes the need for fiscal responsibility to avoid jeopardizing the economy [1] - Trump argues that the current administration's approach could lead to long-term economic consequences [1]