1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market oscillated within a range this week due to the vacillation of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The delayed September non - farm payroll report failed to offer clear guidance, and market uncertainty remained high. The 12 - month interest - rate cut probability dropped significantly, and the precious metals market will continue to oscillate. In the short term, precious metals lack clear positive factors, and gold prices will mainly move in an oscillatory manner next week. In the long run, due to the increasing US debt pressure and central bank gold purchases, the gold price center may rise further. The suggested attention range for the SHFE gold 2602 contract next week is 900 - 950 yuan/gram, and for the SHFE silver 2602 contract, it is 11,500 - 12,300 yuan/kilogram [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Performance**: Affected by the vacillation of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, the precious metals market oscillated within a range this week. The delayed September non - farm payroll report failed to provide clear guidance, and market uncertainty remained high. Although the number of new jobs significantly exceeded market expectations, the downward revision of previous data and the unexpected increase in the unemployment rate (the highest in four years) made the data less impressive. The Fed officials were divided on the interest - rate cut stance, with most supporting maintaining interest rates and some advocating a looser policy. The 12 - month interest - rate cut probability dropped from nearly 70% at the beginning of last week to 30% - 45% this week [8]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, the suppression of interest - rate cut expectations is unfavorable for gold prices. The lack of data guidance and the callback of the US stock market may exacerbate the liquidity risk and the callback of the precious metals market. The neutral - to - hawkish tone of the Fed officials restricts the upward space of gold prices. In the long term, the increasing US debt pressure and central bank gold purchases may push up the gold price center [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movement**: After a significant increase in the previous period, the precious metals market corrected at a high level this week. As of November 21, 2025, COMEX silver was at $48.77 per ounce, down 3.23% for the week; the SHFE silver 2602 contract was at 11,680 yuan/kilogram, down 5.43% for the week. COMEX gold was at $4,032.9 per ounce, down 1.33% for the week; the SHFE gold 2602 contract was at 926.94 yuan/gram, down 2.75% for the week [9][11]. - **ETF Holdings**: This week, the net holdings of foreign - market silver ETFs increased, while those of gold ETFs decreased. As of November 20, 2025, the SPDR gold ETF holdings were 1,039.43 tons, a 0.91% decrease from the previous period; the SLV silver ETF holdings were 15,247 tons, a 0.50% increase from the previous period [12][16]. - **COMEX Positions**: Due to the US government shutdown, the COMEX position data of precious metals stopped being updated. As of September 23, 2025 (the latest), the total COMEX gold positions were 528,789 contracts, a 2.43% increase from the previous period; the net positions were 266,749 contracts, a 0.13% increase from the previous period. The total COMEX silver positions were 165,805 contracts, a 1.75% increase from the previous period; the net positions were 52,276 contracts, a 1.43% increase from the previous period [17][21]. - **Basis**: This week, the basis of gold and silver in the Shanghai market weakened. As of November 20, 2025, the gold basis was - 5.46 yuan/gram, and the silver basis was 94 yuan/kilogram [22][24]. - **Inventory**: This week, the SHFE gold inventory increased, while the silver inventory decreased. As of November 20, 2025, the COMEX gold inventory was 36,937,024.89 ounces, a 1.61% decrease from the previous period; the SHFE gold inventory was 90,426 kilograms, a 0.90% increase from the previous period. The COMEX silver inventory was 15,247 ounces, a 0.50% increase from the previous period; the SHFE silver inventory was 576,894 kilograms, a 7.40% decrease from the previous period [27][31]. 3.3 Industrial Supply and Demand 3.3.1 Silver Industry - **Imports**: As of October 2025, the import volumes of silver and silver ore sand decreased. The Chinese silver import volume was 239,777.07 kilograms, a 2.43% decrease from the previous period; the import volume of silver ore sand and its concentrates was 149,358,822 kilograms, a 6.99% decrease from the previous period [33][37]. - **Downstream Demand**: Due to the increasing demand for silver in semiconductors, the growth rate of integrated circuit production continued to rise. As of October 2025, the monthly integrated circuit production was 4,177,000 pieces, with a year - on - year growth rate of 17.7% [39][42]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The silver supply - demand situation is in a tight - balance pattern. As of the end of 2024, the industrial demand for silver was 680.5 million ounces, a 4% year - on - year increase; the demand for coins and net bars was 190.9 million ounces, a 22% year - on - year decrease; the net investment demand for silver ETFs was 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the same period of the previous year; the total silver demand was 1,164.1 million ounces, a 3% year - on - year decrease. The total silver supply was 1,015.1 million ounces, a 2% year - on - year increase; the supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, a 26% decrease from the previous period [44][48][52]. 3.3.2 Gold Industry - **Product Price**: This week, the price of gold jewelry decreased. As of November 20, 2025, the Chinese gold recycling price was 929.60 yuan/gram, down 2.71% from the previous period. The gold prices of Laofengxiang, Chow Tai Fook, and Saturday Fu were 1,302 yuan/gram, 1,305 yuan/gram, and 1,273 yuan/gram respectively [54][58]. - **Investment Demand**: According to the World Gold Council, in Q3 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs increased significantly. Central banks net - purchased about 220 tons of gold in the third quarter, with a cumulative purchase of 634 tons in the first three quarters of 2025 [60]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - **Dollar and Treasury Yields**: This week, the US dollar index continued to rebound, and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds increased slightly. The 10Y - 2Y Treasury yield spread widened week - on - week, and the CBOE gold volatility declined. The 10 - year inflation - balanced interest rate was 2.24%, slightly lower than last week [64][68][72]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: In the third quarter of 2025, central banks around the world purchased 220 tons of gold, a 28% quarter - on - quarter increase, reversing the downward trend at the beginning of the year. The cumulative net gold purchase from the beginning of the year to now was 634 tons, still significantly higher than the level before 2022 [76][78].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market continues to be under pressure and in a correction trend, with the London gold price once breaking below the significant $4000 mark. Uncertainty over the release of the US CPI data for October, combined with previous warnings from Fed officials about the risk of inflation rebounding, has significantly reduced the probability of rate cuts in December and January next year. The rebound of the US dollar and the 10-year US Treasury yield, as well as the sharp correction in the US stock and cryptocurrency markets, have also intensified liquidity risks, posing resistance to the upward movement of gold and silver prices [2]. - In the short term, the correction in the US stock market may exacerbate market liquidity risks and cause short-term shocks to the gold price. The Fed's stance is more hawkish than expected, and the rate cut expectation is under pressure, which is a potential negative for the gold price. However, geopolitical risks may continue to provide price support, and the possibility of a significant decline in the gold market in the short term is relatively limited [2]. - In the medium to long term, the US debt pressure continues to intensify, and investors' confidence in the US dollar tends to weaken. Gold, as the preferred asset for hedging against US dollar credit, remains attractive. Coupled with the continuous intervention of central banks buying gold at low prices, the central price of gold may further increase [2]. - Technically, the short-term upward momentum has significantly weakened, and the $4000 and $50 integer marks for London gold and silver prices form key supports. The Shanghai gold 2512 contract should focus on the range of 900 - 950 yuan/gram; the Shanghai silver 2602 contract should focus on the range of 11300 - 12000 yuan/kilogram [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 918.52 yuan/gram, down 10.94 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 11699 yuan/kilogram, down 234 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold decreased by 10851 hands to 90872 hands, while those of Shanghai silver increased by 10886 hands to 322401 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract decreased by 473 hands to 107875 hands, and those of Shanghai silver decreased by 12386 hands to 93067 hands. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold and silver both decreased to 0, with a decrease of 90426 kilograms for gold and 569355 kilograms for silver [2]. - **Spot Market**: The Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network gold spot price was 917.3 yuan/gram, down 14.15 yuan; the silver spot price was 11787 yuan/kilogram, down 190 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was -1.22 yuan/gram, down 3.21 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was 88 yuan/kilogram, up 44 yuan [2]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Gold ETF holdings decreased by 2.57 tons to 1041.43 tons, while silver ETF holdings remained unchanged at 15218.42 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold and silver in the CFTC increased, with an increase of 339 contracts for gold to 266749 contracts and an increase of 738 contracts for silver to 52276 contracts. The quarterly total supply and demand of gold were both 1313.01 tons, with an increase of 54.84 tons in supply and 54.83 tons in demand. The annual total supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces, and the global total demand was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. - **Option Market**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold decreased by 0.58% to 27.02%, and the 40 - day historical volatility increased by 0.93% to 28.14%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for gold both increased by 2.17% to 28.93% [2]. 2. Industry News - Fed Vice Chair Jefferson believes that the downside risk to employment has increased, and the upside risk to inflation may have slightly decreased recently. He also reiterated that as interest rates approach the neutral level, policymakers need to be more cautious and proceed slowly. Fed Governor Waller believes that the Fed should cut rates again at the December meeting due to the weak US labor market and the harm of monetary policy to low - and middle - income consumers [2]. - US White House National Economic Council Director Hasset pointed out that the job market shows "mixed signals", suggesting that the labor market may be slowing down [2]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in December is 42.9%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 57.1%. The probability of the Fed cutting rates by a cumulative 25 basis points by January next year is 48.2%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 35.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 16.1% [2].

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Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a record high of 48,254.82 points, up 0.68% [2] - The S&P 500 index closed at 6,850.92 points, with a slight increase of 0.06%, while the Nasdaq Composite index fell by 0.26% to 23,406.46 points [2] Technology Sector - The majority of the U.S. tech giants experienced declines, with the tech giants index down by 0.80%. Notable movements included Microsoft up 0.48% and Nvidia up 0.33%, while META dropped 2.88% and Tesla fell 2.05% [4] - Other tech companies like Amazon and Google saw declines of over 1%, and Apple had a minor decrease of 0.65% [4] Commodity Prices - Gold prices surged significantly, with spot gold rising by 1.66% to $4,195.195 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures increasing by 2.11% to $4,203.1 per ounce [5] - In contrast, international oil prices saw a notable decline, with light crude oil futures for December delivery dropping by $2.55 to $58.49 per barrel, a decrease of 4.18%, and Brent crude oil futures for January down by $2.45 to $62.71 per barrel, a drop of 3.76% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The resignation of Wu Yuehua, the general manager of Huayang New Materials, marks a significant leadership change within the company, which is undergoing a transformation in its business focus towards precious metals and related sectors [1][3][6]. Company Summary - Wu Yuehua submitted his resignation due to work changes, effective immediately, and will no longer hold any position within the company [1][3]. - The board of directors will promptly complete the election of a new director and the appointment of a new general manager [3]. - Wu Yuehua's term was originally set to end on January 9, 2026, and he has not held any company stock or unfulfilled commitments [3]. - Huayang New Materials, formerly Taihua Co., was rebranded in May 2021 as part of a strategic shift under the Huayang Group [5]. Recent Developments - In 2024, Huayang New Materials experienced significant personnel changes, including the resignation of other key executives and the appointment of new leadership [6]. - The company announced the transfer of certain land use rights to Taiyuan Chemical Industry Group, resulting in a net asset disposal gain of 119 million yuan and a land transfer subsidy of 5 million yuan from the Taiyuan Municipal Finance Bureau [6]. - This land transfer is expected to enhance asset operation efficiency and alleviate financial pressure on the company [6]. Financial Performance - For the first half of the year, Huayang New Materials reported revenue of 150 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 266.15% year-on-year [6]. - In the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 326 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 31.10%, and a net profit of 68.88 million yuan, up 178.58% [6]. - The increase in revenue is primarily attributed to higher sales of platinum nets and palladium chloride, benefiting from a recovery in the precious metals market [6][7]. Industry Outlook - Huayang New Materials has been transitioning towards precious metals since 2016, fully divesting from chemical assets by 2021 [7]. - The company now focuses on three core business segments: precious metal recycling, biodegradable materials, and sodium-ion battery materials [7]. - The precious metals processing business has a production capacity of 2,500 kg of platinum nets annually and can process 1,000 tons of waste catalysts containing precious metals [7]. - A recent report predicts that the global precious metals market will exceed $1.8 trillion by 2030, with the Chinese market expected to surpass 1.2 trillion yuan, growing at a stable annual rate of 8%-10% [8][9].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The U.S. government shutdown is expected to cause the precious metals market to decline. The sharp rise in gold and silver prices today may be due to the short - term liquidity buffer provided by the temporary appropriation bill and the continuous weakening of the U.S. dollar index after breaking through the 100 mark, which boosts the monetary attribute of precious metals. The continuous weakening of the U.S. dollar is expected to boost the precious metals trend, but the optimistic expectation of the government shutdown may weaken the market's safe - haven demand and resist the upward movement of gold prices. Technically, there is a short - term callback risk, and specific price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver contracts are given [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 935.98 yuan/gram, up 14.72; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 11719 yuan/kilogram, up 235 [3]. - **Positions**: The main contract positions of Shanghai gold are 136657 hands, down 3; those of Shanghai silver are 243217 hands, down 2300. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract are 110522 hands, up 5914; those of Shanghai silver are 101886 hands, down 3302 [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 89616 kilograms, unchanged; that of silver is 609978 kilograms, down 13074 [3]. 3.2现货市场 - **Prices**: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 928.1 yuan/gram, up 12.15; the spot price of silver is 11607 yuan/kilogram, up 161 [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 7.88 yuan/gram, down 2.57; that of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 112 yuan/kilogram, down 74 [3]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: Gold ETF holdings are 1042.06 tons, up 1.71; silver ETF holdings are 15088.63 tons, down 25.4 [3]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: Gold CFTC non - commercial net positions are 266749 contracts, up 339; silver CTFC non - commercial net positions are 52276 contracts, up 738 [3]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The total quarterly supply of gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.84; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4. The total quarterly demand for gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.83; the global annual demand for silver is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 [3]. 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 31.98%, down 0.42; the 40 - day historical volatility is 26.76%, down 0.03 [3]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 20.46%, down 1.3; that of at - the - money put options is 20.47%, down 1.27 [3]. 3.5 Industry News - The U.S. Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill to end the government shutdown until January 30, 2026. The government shutdown has a greater - than - expected impact on the U.S. economy, and the labor department cannot release the non - farm payroll report, which makes the Fed's December interest - rate cut decision difficult [3]. 3.6 Technical Analysis - The hourly RSI of London gold has continued to strengthen and broken through the 90 overbought range. The key resistance level for London gold is $4100, and the strong support level is $4000. The Shanghai gold 2512 contract should focus on the range of 890 - 950 yuan/gram; the Shanghai silver 2512 contract should focus on the range of 11000 - 11900 yuan/kilogram [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market continued its wide - range oscillation this week due to complex global macro - situations such as easing tariff tensions, ongoing US government shutdown, and weakened short - term expectations of Fed rate cuts. The US government shutdown provides bottom - line support for gold prices, but the uncertainty of the Fed's future rate - cut path and the potential end of the government shutdown may suppress the upward trend of gold prices. Precious metals are expected to resume a mild upward trend in the short term, and it is recommended to adopt an interval - band trading strategy. The recommended trading intervals are 890 - 950 yuan/gram for the Shanghai Gold 2512 contract and 11000 - 11700 yuan/kg for the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract [8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Situation**: The precious metals market continued to oscillate widely. The US government shutdown reached a record 38 days, providing support for gold prices. The overall PMI was dragged down by the manufacturing industry, the labor market was weakening, and the Fed's future rate - cut path was uncertain, which potentially suppressed the upward movement of gold prices. The high - level decline of the US dollar provided potential support for gold prices [8] - **Market Outlook**: Precious metals are expected to resume a mild upward trend in the short term, but the potential end of the US government shutdown may suppress the upward expectation of gold prices. Attention should be paid to the US October CPI data [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movement**: COMEX silver rose 0.63% to $48.55 per ounce, and the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract rose 0.38% to 11484 yuan/kg. COMEX gold rose 0.06% to $4017.5 per ounce, while the Shanghai Gold 2512 contract fell 0.07% to 921.26 yuan/gram [11] - **ETF Holdings**: As of November 6, 2025, SPDR gold ETF holdings remained basically the same as last week, and SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 0.5% [16] - **COMEX Positions**: Due to the US government shutdown, COMEX position data for precious metals was suspended. As of September 23, 2025, COMEX gold total positions increased by 2.43%, and net positions increased by 0.13%. COMEX silver total positions increased by 1.75%, and net positions increased by 1.43% [17][21] - **Basis**: The basis of Shanghai gold strengthened, while that of silver weakened. As of November 6, 2025, the gold basis was - 3.80 yuan/gram, and the silver basis was - 93 yuan/kg [22][24] - **Inventory**: COMEX precious metals inventory decreased, while SHFE inventory increased. As of November 6, 2025, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 1.04%, and SHFE gold inventory increased by 0.92%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 1.2%, and SHFE silver inventory increased by 0.1% [31] 3.3 Industrial Supply and Demand Situation 3.3.1 Silver Industry - **Imports**: As of September 2025, China's silver imports increased by 19.17% month - on - month, while silver ore imports decreased by 13.19% month - on - month [37] - **Downstream Demand**: Due to the increasing demand for silver in semiconductors, the growth rate of integrated circuit production continued to rise. As of September 2025, the monthly integrated circuit production was 4371000 pieces, with a year - on - year growth rate of 5.90% [39][42] - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The silver market was in a tight - balance state. As of the end of 2024, industrial demand increased by 4% year - on - year, coin and net bar demand decreased by 22% year - on - year, and ETF net investment demand changed from - 37.6 million ounces to 61.6 million ounces. Total demand decreased by 3% year - on - year. The supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, a 26% decrease from the previous period [48][52] 3.3.2 Gold Industry - **Price**: Affected by the gold tax policy, the prices of gold jewelry increased. As of November 6, 2025, the gold prices of Laofengxiang, Chow Tai Fook, and Saturday Fu were 1256 yuan/gram, 1259 yuan/gram, and 1261 yuan/gram respectively. The Chinese gold recycling price was 910.80 yuan/gram, a 0.80% decrease from the previous period [54][58] - **Demand**: According to the World Gold Council, gold ETF investment demand increased significantly in Q3 2025. Central banks net - purchased about 220 tons of gold in Q3, with a cumulative total of 634 tons in the first three quarters of 2025 [60] 3.4 Macroeconomic and Options (Macroeconomic Data) - **Dollar and Treasury Yields**: The US dollar index oscillated higher and then declined from its high this week, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield followed the trend of the US dollar [64] - **Yield Spread and Volatility**: The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread widened, and the CBOE gold volatility continued to decline [68] - **Inflation - Balanced Interest Rate**: The 10 - year inflation - balanced interest rate was 2.28%, slightly lower than last week [71] - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: In Q3 2025, central banks around the world purchased 220 tons of gold, a 28% increase from the previous quarter, reversing the downward trend at the beginning of the year. The cumulative net gold purchases from the beginning of the year to now reached 634 tons, still significantly higher than the level before 2022 [75][77]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market regained upward momentum during intraday trading as the meeting between the top leaders of China and the US and the FOMC meeting approached. The London gold price rebounded after a sharp correction, and the London silver price regained the $48 mark. The tariff news was optimistic, causing market risk aversion to recede and increasing market volatility. Trump's tariff negotiations with Southeast Asian countries and the initial optimistic Sino - US tariff consultations were short - term negative for the gold price. The US September CPI was lower than expected, and the market fully priced in two interest rate cuts this year. Affected by the previous sharp correction, the trading sentiment was cautious, with strong profit - taking sentiment among bulls, but there was also strong buying demand at key support levels. Most Fed voting members supported restarting the easing path, and two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts this year were the market's general expectation. Before the meeting between the top leaders of China and the US, the long - short game in the market intensified. The Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the continued US government shutdown provided bottom support. However, if the Sino - US talks achieved substantial results, the gold price might continue to correct. It is recommended to focus on range - bound trading. The recommended trading range for the Shanghai Gold 2512 contract is 880 - 920 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract is 11000 - 11600 yuan/kilogram [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Shanghai Gold main contract closing price: 910.88 yuan/gram, up 9.5 yuan; Shanghai Silver main contract closing price: 11338 yuan/kilogram, up 289 yuan - Shanghai Gold main contract open interest: 168691 lots, down 7225 lots; Shanghai Silver main contract open interest: 304414 lots, down 17462 lots - Shanghai Gold main contract top 20 net open interest: 110656 lots, up 2063 lots; Shanghai Silver main contract top 20 net open interest: 85919 lots, up 3368 lots - Gold warehouse receipts: 87816 kilograms, up 801 kilograms; Silver warehouse receipts: 653828 kilograms, down 3599 kilograms [2] 3.2现货市场 - Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price: 904.7 yuan/gram, down 6.71 yuan; Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network silver spot price: 11272 yuan/kilogram, up 109 yuan - Shanghai Gold main contract basis: - 6.18 yuan/gram, up 0.53 yuan; Shanghai Silver main contract basis: - 66 yuan/kilogram, down 175 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings: 1038.92 tons, unchanged; Silver ETF holdings: 15209.57 tons, down 131.22 tons - Gold CFTC non - commercial net open interest (weekly): 266749 contracts, up 339 contracts; Silver CTFC non - commercial net open interest (weekly): 52276 contracts, up 738 contracts - Gold total supply (quarterly): 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; Silver total supply (yearly): 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces - Gold total demand (quarterly): 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; Silver global total demand (yearly): 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2] 3.4 Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of gold: 36.03%, up 2.69 percentage points; 40 - day historical volatility of gold: 26.86%, up 1.96 percentage points - At - the - money call option implied volatility of gold: 26.17%, down 1.51 percentage points; At - the - money put option implied volatility of gold: 26.18%, down 1.51 percentage points [2] 3.5 Industry News - The US Senate, with a 54 - to - 45 vote, failed again in a procedural vote to advance the "2025 Fiscal Year Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act" aimed at ending the government shutdown. The bill, passed by the House of Representatives, proposed to temporarily resume government operations at the current funding level and needed 60 votes in the Senate to proceed. This was the 13th vote on the bill, and it still failed to reach the required threshold, meaning the government shutdown would continue - On October 28, Japanese Prime Minister Hayasuna Kōichi and US President Trump signed an agreement to promote Japan's $550 billion investment plan in the US - ADP, the "small non - farm" data publisher, announced that it would launch weekly employment data from this week to track the US labor market dynamics more frequently. The first report showed that in the four weeks ending October 11, the average number of private - sector jobs in the US increased by 14,250 - The Conference Board data showed that the US consumer confidence index in October declined for the third consecutive month, falling from 95.6 in September to 94.6, the lowest level since April this year. The expectation index dropped to 71.5, the lowest since June [2]

Group 1: Report Core View - The precious metals market entered a volatile pattern after a significant correction due to the release of profit - taking sentiment and the cooling of the tariff situation. The US federal government debt exceeded $38 trillion, and the government shutdown provided potential safe - haven support. Most Fed voters support a loose path, and a 25 - basis - point rate cut in the October FOMC meeting is almost certain. The market focuses on employment data and future rate - cut margins. The yen's low - level volatility and geopolitical factors also affect the market. Gold still has a high premium and is in an overbought area, so short - term correction risks should be guarded against. The precious metals' short - term trend may be wide - range volatile, and attention should be paid to the US CPI data [8]. - The short - term trend of gold and silver is expected to be wide - range volatile. The London gold price has strong support at the $4000 mark and a key resistance area around $4150. The Shanghai Gold 2512 contract is expected to trade in the range of 900 - 1000 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract in the range of 11000 - 11600 yuan/kg. The US CPI data on Friday will be a key factor, and a stronger - than - expected CPI may weaken rate - cut expectations and lead to a greater gold price correction [8]. Group 2: Weekly Summary Market Review - The profit - taking sentiment led to a significant correction in the precious metals market. The US federal government debt exceeded $38 trillion, and the 22 - day government shutdown provided potential safe - haven support. The tariff situation is likely to be stable, and most Fed voters support a loose path. The 10 - month FOMC meeting is likely to cut rates by 25 basis points. The yen's low - level volatility and geopolitical factors affect the market [8]. Market Outlook - Gold has a high premium and is in an overbought area, so short - term correction risks should be guarded. The London gold price has support at $4000 and resistance around $4150. The Shanghai Gold 2512 contract is expected to trade between 900 - 1000 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract between 11000 - 11600 yuan/kg. The US CPI data on Friday is crucial, and a strong CPI may lead to a greater gold price correction [8]. Group 3: Futures and Spot Market - This week, the profit - taking sentiment led to a significant correction in precious metals. As of October 24, 2025, COMEX silver was at $47.52 per ounce, down 6.14% for the week; the Shanghai silver main 2512 contract was at 11332 yuan/kg, down 7.49% for the week. COMEX gold was at $4065 per ounce, down 4.72% for the week; the Shanghai gold main 2512 contract was at 938.10 yuan/gram, down 6.17% for the week [9][11]. - As of October 23, 2025, the SPDR gold ETF holdings were 1052.37 tons, up 1.72% month - on - month; the SLV silver ETF holdings were 15469 tons, up 0.30% month - on - month. Due to the US government shutdown, the COMEX precious metals position data has not been updated [12][16]. - As of October 23, 2025, the gold basis was - 0.28 yuan/gram, up 95.9% month - on - month; the silver basis was - 89 yuan/kg, up 45.9% month - on - month. The gold and silver inventories of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and New York COMEX basically decreased. COMEX gold inventory was 38958914.92 ounces, down 0.48% month - on - month; the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory was 84606 kg, up 19.62% month - on - month. COMEX silver inventory was 503832524 troy ounces, down 2.3% month - on - month; the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory was 920103 kg, down 21.3% month - on - month [22][30] Group 4: Silver Industry Import Situation - As of September 2025, China's silver import volume was 245749 kg, up 19.17% month - on - month; the import volume of silver ore and its concentrates was 160587998 kg, down 13.19% month - on - month [36] Downstream Demand - Due to the increasing demand for silver in semiconductors, the growth rate of integrated circuit production has been rising. As of August 2025, the monthly integrated circuit production was 4.25 million pieces, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.20% [38][42] Group 5: Silver Supply and Demand - The silver supply and demand are in a tight - balance pattern. As of the end of 2024, the industrial demand for silver was 680.5 million ounces, up 4% year - on - year; the demand for coins and net bars was 190.9 million ounces, down 22% year - on - year; the net investment demand for silver ETFs was 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the same period of the previous year; the total silver demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year [44][48] - The silver supply - demand gap has been narrowing year by year. As of the end of 2024, the total silver supply was 1015.1 million ounces, up 2% year - on - year; the total silver demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year; the silver supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, down 26% month - on - month [50][52] Group 6: Gold Industry Price Changes - As of October 24, 2025, the Chinese gold recycling price was 939.30 yuan/gram, down 3.66% month - on - month; Lao Fengxiang's gold price was 1228 yuan/gram, down 2.84% month - on - month; Chow Tai Fook's gold price was 1232 yuan/gram, down 2.38% month - on - month; Saturday's gold price was 1164 yuan/gram, down 3.32% month - on - month [54][58] Demand Changes - According to the World Gold Council, in Q2 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs declined slightly. The central bank's gold - buying pace slowed down, and the high gold price led to a marginal decline in gold jewelry manufacturing demand [60] Group 7: Macroeconomic Data - This week, the US dollar index rose slightly, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread narrowed, the CBOE gold volatility dropped significantly, and the ratio of SP500/COMEX gold price increased. The 10 - year inflation - balanced interest rate was 2.30%, and inflation expectations rose slightly [64][68][71] - In October 2025, the People's Bank of China continued to increase its gold reserves by about 1.87 tons, significantly more than other countries [75]

Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in gold and silver prices is attributed to profit-taking by investors and a cooling geopolitical situation, with gold experiencing its largest single-day decline in over five years [1][2][3]. Price Movements - On the 21st, international spot gold prices fell by approximately 5.3% to $4,123.85 per ounce, with an intraday drop of 6.3%, marking the largest decline in over a decade [1]. - By the 22nd, gold futures were reported at $4,034.9 per ounce, down 1.81%, while London spot gold was at $4,020.44, down 2.5% [1]. - Silver futures also saw a decline, dropping over 7% on the same day [1]. Market Trends - Since the beginning of the year, international spot gold prices have increased by over 50%, while silver prices have risen nearly 70% [1]. - Analysts suggest that the previous surge in precious metals was driven by geopolitical tensions, leading to a rush for safe-haven assets, and that a calming market sentiment could lead to further price corrections [1][3]. Historical Context - Historical data indicates that when gold prices deviate more than 24% from the 200-day moving average, a correction of approximately 18% can occur over a period of 3 to 6 months [4]. - The recent rise in gold prices from around $3,300 to over $4,000 per ounce was influenced by geopolitical changes, global economic uncertainty, and central bank gold purchases [6]. Market Reactions - The volatility in gold prices has shocked many sellers in the market, with reports of significant price drops affecting sales [7][9]. - Despite the price adjustments, consumer interest remains, although many are adopting a wait-and-see approach, hoping for further declines before purchasing [11][13]. - The drop in gold prices has also led to a slowdown in the active gold recycling market, with a reported decrease in customer visits by over one-third [18].