Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in international gold prices, characterized by sharp fluctuations, is primarily driven by market uncertainties and a combination of factors including policy expectations, dollar rebound, and increased margin requirements [2][3][4]. Market Dynamics - On February 2, gold and silver futures experienced significant declines due to a reversal in policy expectations, a rebound in the dollar, and forced liquidations triggered by increased margin requirements [3][4]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange announced an increase in trading margin requirements for precious metals, which contributed to the market's forced deleveraging and heightened volatility [5][6]. Investor Behavior - The market has seen a shift from passive selling to active repositioning by institutions, with a notable reduction in long positions among major financial institutions like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, while retail investors continued to increase their positions [7][8]. - The crowded long positions in silver, particularly, were a key factor in the recent dramatic price drop, as any negative news led to a rush to liquidate positions [7][8]. Future Outlook - Despite the recent volatility, analysts believe that the long-term bull market for gold is not over, as the fundamental support factors remain intact, including central bank purchases and a potential decline in real interest rates [11][12]. - The upcoming market dynamics will be influenced by various factors, including U.S. government developments, geopolitical tensions, and economic data releases [11][12][13].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 4 日星期三 | | | 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货涨 6.83%报 4970.50 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 10.27%报 84.92 | | | | | 美元/盎司。沪金主力合约上涨 4.2%报 1108.8 元/克，沪银主力合约上涨 5.93%报 | | | | | 22393 元/千克。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 2 月 3 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日减少 3.72 吨， 当前持仓量为 1083.38 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 | | | | | 减少 108.89 吨，当前持仓量为 16437.7 ...

Group 1 - Gold and silver prices surged, with spot gold rising 1.6% to over $4,700 and spot silver increasing by over 3% due to extreme long positions and technical selling pressure in the precious metals market [5][6] - The price of gold jewelry reached 1,542 yuan per gram, an increase of 58 yuan from the previous day, while another brand reported a price of 1,518 yuan per gram, up 20 yuan [5][6] - The National Investment Silver LOF experienced a trading halt, marking a record single-day decline for public funds [6] Group 2 - The first day of the Spring Festival travel rush is expected to see over 180 million people, a 13% increase compared to the same period in 2025 [6]

2月3日早盘，黄金、白银双双反弹。现货黄金日内涨幅扩大至3.35%，报4816.02美元/盎司。 | | 黄金/美元 | | | 7 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | XAU | | | | | | | /AQ4 / 4676.91 最高 4821.18 最低 4676.91 | | | | | | 3.35% 155.92 | 总手 -- 持仓 | | 日增 | | | | 结算 | 昨结 4660.10 | | | 南京 | | | 分时 五日 | 居K 日K | 月Ｋ | 明多, | | | | 4821.18 | | 3.46% 卖1 | 4816.86 | | | | | | | 21 4815.19 | | 0 | | | | | 分时成交 08:24 4819.481 | | | | | | | 08:24 4819.414 | | | | | | | 08:24 4819.154 | | | | 4660.10- | | | 08:24 4819.104 | | | | | | | 08:24 4819.84↑ | | | | | | ...

联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | COMEX | 黄金期货跌 | 1.35%报 | 4680.90 | 美元/盎司，COMEX | 白银期货涨 | 0.93%报 | 79.27 | 美元/盎司。沪金主力合约下跌 | 3.86%报 | 1045 | 元/克，沪银主力合约下跌 | 20%报 | 20600 | | | | 元/千克。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1、截至 | 2 | 月 | 2 | 日，全球最大黄金 | ETF--SPDR | Gold | Trust | 持仓较上个交易日维持 ...

消息面上，新华社援引伊朗法尔斯通讯社2日报道，伊朗总统已下令启动核谈判。此外，伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社2日报道，一名知情人士确认，伊朗与美 国在未来几天内可能举行高规格谈判。 据央视新闻消息，当地时间2月2日，针对伊朗问题，美国总统特朗普表示，美方已向相关地区调动大型军舰，同时与伊朗保持沟通，"将观察事态如 何发展"。 俄乌局势方面，当地时间2月2日，俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫确认， 将于当地时间 2 月 4 日至 5 日在阿布扎比进行下一轮乌克兰问题谈判。 截至夜盘收盘，沪银期货主力合约 "20CM" 跌停。伦敦金现货和伦敦银现货价格大跌。国际油价大跌。 早上好，先来关注下金银。 2日夜盘，内盘白银期货延续午盘的暴跌态势。沪银期货10个合约开盘后不久全部跌停。 | 沪银 2602 | 21292 | -20.00% | | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 aq2602 | | | | 沪银 2603 | 21256 | -20.00% | | 期货 ag2603 | | | | 沪银 2604 | 20848 | -19.04% | | 期货 ag2604 | | | | 沪银 2605 | 205 ...

早上好，先来关注下金银。 2日夜盘，内盘白银期货延续午盘的暴跌态势。沪银期货10个合约开盘后不久全部跌停。 | 沪银 2602 | 21292 | -20.00% | | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 ag2602 | | | | 沪银 2603 | 21256 | -20.00% | | 期货 ag2603 | | | | 沪银 2604 | 20848 | - 19.04% | | 期货 ag2604 | | | | 沪银 2605 | 20535 | - 19.00% | | 期货 ag2605 | | | | 沪银 2606 | 20232 | - 19.00% | | 期货 ag2606 | | | | 沪银 2607 | 19931 | - 19.00% | | 期货 ag2607 | | | | 沪银 2608 | 19908 | - 19.00% | | 期货 ag2608 | | | | 沪银 2609 | 19845 | - 19.00% | | 期货 ag2609 | | | | 沪银 2610 | 19678 | -19.00% | | 期货 ag2610 | | | ...

Core Insights - The recent volatility in precious metals, particularly gold and silver, has been extreme, with gold reaching a peak of $5,598 before dropping below $4,700, indicating fierce market contention between bulls and bears [1][2] - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair has triggered significant market reactions, with traders interpreting his stance on monetary policy as potentially hawkish despite his previous support for rate cuts [2][3] - Geopolitical risks, including U.S. military interventions and tensions with Iran, have been key drivers for the rise in gold and silver prices, as they heighten market risk aversion [5][6] Market Reactions - Gold prices experienced a dramatic fluctuation, with a drop of 3.3% on Monday, followed by a recovery that narrowed the loss to around 1%, but later expanded to a 4.3% decline [1] - Silver prices were even more volatile, initially plummeting over 10% to below $75 per ounce before rebounding to above $87, only to fall again by over 4% [1] - The stock market also reflected this panic, with numerous gold-related stocks in both A-shares and Hong Kong shares experiencing significant declines [1] Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in the U.S. rose by 3% year-on-year, surpassing expectations and contributing to a stronger dollar and higher U.S. Treasury yields, which negatively impacted gold prices [3] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is anticipated to be a crucial catalyst for market direction, with weak employment data potentially reversing the trend of a strong dollar and reigniting gold buying [3] Geopolitical Factors - The increase in geopolitical tensions, such as U.S. military actions in Venezuela and warnings regarding Iran, has significantly influenced market sentiment and the demand for safe-haven assets like gold [5][6] - The ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran regarding nuclear agreements may continue to affect precious metal prices as developments unfold [5] Physical Demand - Despite market volatility, physical demand for gold remains strong, particularly in India, where premiums surged to $121 per ounce ahead of the federal budget announcement [6] - The approaching Lunar New Year in China is expected to boost demand for gold jewelry and investment, maintaining high premiums in the market [7]

经历1月最后一个交易日的史诗级暴跌后，2月2日，伦敦现货黄金、白银开盘跌势暂缓，白银盘中一度实现"由跌转涨"。但涨势维持时间不长，黄金、白 银再陷深跌。 2月2日早盘，黄金、白银集体低开，现货白银一度大跌近8%，随后开始反弹，现货黄金一度重返4800美元，现货白银日内涨幅一度扩大至近4%。9:12左 右，黄金、白银再次出现大跳水，现货黄金失守4590美元关口，一度跌至4583美元，现货白银也一度失守80美元关口，COMEX黄金涨超1%，报4802美 元/盎司，COMEX白银期货涨超8%，报85美元/盎司。 | W | | | 伦敦金现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | 4685.990 | | 昨年 | 4895.118 | | 总量 | | 0 | | -209.128 | -427% 十益 | | 4783.510 | | 现手 | | 0 | | 最高价 | 4884.784 | 博 仓 | 0 | | 外 雷 | | 0 | | 最低价 | 458 ...

上周将被铭记为贵金属历史上最极端的时期之一：黄金首次突破5000美元大关，并在周四早盘一路飙升至5598美元的盘中高点。然而，随后市场急 转直下。到上周五，黄金价格暴一度跌至4700美元以下，数小时内抹去了数周以来的涨幅。 本周一，这一大幅波动仍在继续：现货黄金早间一度向下跌破4700美元，日内下跌3.3%，尽管随后一度快速拉升，将日内跌幅收窄至1% 左右，但截至发稿跌幅又再度扩大至4.3%。 现货白银价格更加戏剧性：早间一度暴跌超10%至75美元/盎司以下，随后又快速日内转涨至87美元上方，日内转涨超3%。但截至发稿， 白银再度跳水，日内下跌超4%。 恐慌情绪同样蔓延至股市。本周一，A股市场上，招金黄金、四川黄金、湖南黄金、中金黄金、赤峰黄金、西部黄金、山东黄金等十余股竞 价跌停。港股市场上，黄金股同样跌幅居前，截至发稿，中国黄金国际跌超7%。 金银价格的大涨大跌意味着多空力量争夺仍然激烈。那么后续贵金属价格将如何走？对于华尔街分析师们来说，前路同样迷雾笼罩。那么， 后续投资者需要关注什么？ 一、凯文·沃什的听证会证词 首先需要关注的第一个重点，就是特朗普提名的下任美联储主席凯文·沃什的正式表态。 上周五， ...