1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, it is expected that the oil and fat market will be volatile and bullish due to external factors, but there is a risk of a high - level pullback after the event changes and the sentiment fades [10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing price of 2509 for soybean oil was 8084 with a rise of 112; palm oil was 8518 with a rise of 72; and rapeseed oil was 9703 with a rise of 120. The basis of different oils in various regions showed different changes, such as the basis of soybean oil in Tianjin decreased by 10 [4] - **Monthly Spread**: For the 9 - 1 monthly spread, soybean oil was 70 with a rise of 12, palm oil was 42 with a rise of 2, and rapeseed oil was 130 with a rise of 6 [4] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: For the 09 contract, the Y - P spread was 434 with a rise of 40, the OI - Y spread was 1619, and the OI - P spread was 1185 with a rise of 48. The oil - meal ratio was 2.64 with a rise of 0.05 [4] - **Import Profit**: The 24 - degree palm oil's disk profit from Malaysia and Indonesia was - 190, and the disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was - 1238 [4] - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 24th week of 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 41.0 (compared with 37.3 last week and 84.7 last year), palm oil was 39.2, and rapeseed oil was 75.8 (compared with 76.9 last week and 41.5 last year) [4] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: According to ITS data, Indonesia's palm oil exports in May increased by 43.3% month - on - month, an increase of 59.9 million tons, and the exports of crude palm oil increased by more than four times month - on - month [6] - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: - **Palm Oil**: As of June 13, 2025 (the 24th week), the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 40.96 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.70 million tons or 9.93%. The inventory was still at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The origin's quotation was stable with a slight increase, and the import profit inversion narrowed. The spot market changed little, and the basis was stable with a slight decrease [6] - **Soybean Oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 225.87 million tons, and the operating rate was 63.49%. As of June 13, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 84.7 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43 million tons or 4.22%, at a relatively neutral and slightly low level in the same period of history, and the basis was stable [6][8] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 7.15 million tons, and the operating rate was 19.06%. As of June 6, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 76.9 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.25 million tons, still at a high level in the same period of history. The European rapeseed oil FOB quotation was around 1050 US dollars, and the import profit inversion widened to around - 1400. The spot market was light, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable with a slight increase [8] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - Side Strategy**: In the short - term, it is expected that the oil and fat market will be volatile and bullish due to external factors, but beware of a high - level pullback after the event changes and the sentiment fades [10] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Wait and see [11] - **Options Strategy**: Wait and see [12] 3.4 Related Attached Figures - The report provides multiple figures, including the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, and East China's third - grade rapeseed oil; the monthly spreads of Y 9 - 1, P 5 - 9, and OI 5 - 9; and the cross - variety spreads of Y - P 05 and OI - Y 05 [15][18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Internationally, as Brazil is about to reach its supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to enter an accumulation phase. In the short - term, the market is affected by production data, and in the long - term, Brazil's production progress and actual increase need attention [4]. - Domestically, the fast sales rate may support sugar prices, but the influx of imported sugar and the weakening of raw sugar may drag down sugar prices. Short - term sugar prices are expected to remain weak [4]. - Raw sugar has declined due to expected global supply increases. In China, summer stocking demand is delayed, and the supply pressure of processed sugar is about to materialize. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow raw sugar prices in the short - term [5]. - For trading strategies, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak in the short - term, and it's recommended to wait and see for arbitrage, while considering out - of - the - money ratio spread options or selling wide - straddle options for options trading [6][7][10]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR2511 closed at 5,679 with a decrease of 12 (-0.21%), trading volume of 190,971 (-9.53%), and open interest of 371,817 (0.68%); SR2507 closed at 5,732 with a decrease of 8 (-0.14%), trading volume of 2,847 (-12.35%), and open interest of 14,281 (-6.06%); SR2509 closed at 5,588 with a decrease of 14 (-0.25%), trading volume of 25,009 (3.21%), and open interest of 51,362 (-0.07%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: In regions like Liuzhou, Kunming, and Zhanjiang, spot prices ranged from 5,865 - 6,410 yuan/ton. The price in Liuzhou was 6,120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: SR07 - SR11 spread was 144 with an increase of 6; SR09 - SR11 spread was 91 with an increase of 1; SR07 - SR09 spread was 180 with an increase of 5 [3]. - **Import Profits**: For Brazilian imports, the in - quota price was 4,373 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota price was 5,589 yuan/ton. For Thai imports, the in - quota price was 4,425 yuan/ton, and the out - quota price was 5,657 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **International**: With Brazil's approaching supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to increase. Short - term prices are affected by production data, and long - term trends depend on Brazil's production [4]. - **Domestic**: Fast sales may support prices, but imported sugar and weak raw sugar may lead to price drops. Short - term sugar prices are expected to be weak [4]. 3.3 Logic Analysis - Raw sugar prices have declined due to expected supply increases, and China's summer stocking delay and raw sugar weakness have increased out - of - quota import profits. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow raw sugar prices [5]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Single - Side Trading**: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak in the short - term, following raw sugar fluctuations [6]. - **Arbitrage**: It's recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Options Trading**: Consider out - of - the - money ratio spread options or selling wide - straddle options [10]. 3.5 Related Attachments - Figures include Guangxi monthly inventory, Yunnan monthly inventory, new industrial inventory, domestic sugar cumulative sales rate, Liuzhou sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot price difference, sugar September basis, and Zhengzhou sugar 5 - 9 spread [11][13][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Different commodities show various import profit, price difference, and market trends, which are affected by factors such as trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and production and consumption patterns. Attention should be paid to policy changes and market dynamics for investment decisions [1][2][3] Summary by Category Metals - **Non - ferrous Metals**: For non - ferrous metals, understand logistics margins, major importers, and resource dependence. Aluminum and zinc should end their reverse spreads, while for tin, with the smooth resumption of overseas and Myanmar mines and low LME inventory, pay attention to the positive spread. Nickel, zinc, copper, and aluminum all have negative import profits [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - term shipments and arrivals are increasing, iron - water production is fluctuating at a high level. Overseas macro has strong short - term disturbances, and the domestic macro is relatively stable. The ore price center has declined, and there are few short - term opportunities for internal - external spreads, with the core being to profit from the discount of Dalian iron ore futures. In the long run, the global balance sheet is slightly in surplus compared to China's [1] - **Precious Metals**: The RMB exchange rate has an impact on the domestic price of precious metals, causing the internal - external price ratio to decline rapidly. The domestic consumption peak season has passed, while India's Diwali supports gold consumption. The silver spot discount has widened, and the import window is closed [3] Energy - **SC**: The spot discount on arrival has weakened, and the internal - external spread has also weakened [1] - **FU**: In summer, the internal - external spread maintains a weak pattern and has been fluctuating recently [1] - **LU**: The internal - external spread has widened again, and domestic production in June is relatively high [1] - **PG**: Recently, FEI and MB have declined, CP has increased. The internal - external spread has decreased, especially PG - CP. FEI - MB has changed little, FEI - CP has declined, and CP - MB has increased [1] - **PX**: Domestic PX production has declined, and there are still some overseas maintenance. As TA restarts, the PX de - stocking rate is expected to increase. The current internal - external spread has converged significantly, and the valuation is gradually neutral. It is advisable to wait and see [1] Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Due to the trade war and sanctions, the internal and external cotton markets have gradually decoupled. Previously, US cotton was stronger than Zhengzhou cotton due to high US tariffs on China. Now, after tariff cuts, Zhengzhou cotton is stronger. Continuously monitor subsequent tariff policy changes [2] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Oilseeds and oils have a high degree of import dependence. The international supply - demand balance is transmitted to the domestic market through imports. Focus on the difference in internal and external supply - demand rhythms [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no specific investment rating for the industry mentioned in the report. Group 2: Report's Core View - Zheng sugar is expected to maintain a weak and oscillating trend. The reasons include the increasing global supply of sugar, with Brazil's central - southern region having a high - volume sugar production forecast for the 25/26 season, the arrival of imported sugar in the third quarter, the narrowing price difference between imported and domestic sugar, and the impact of low - cost substitutes on domestic sugar consumption [4]. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Data Domestic Spot Sugar Prices - In Guangxi, the price in Nanning warehouse is 6190 yuan/ton with no change, and the basis with SR09 is 455 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. In Yunnan, the price in Kunming is 5915 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton, and the basis with SR09 is 280 yuan/ton with no change; in Dali, it is 5840 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton, and the basis with SR09 is 245 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. In Shandong, the price in Rizhao is 6205 yuan/ton with no change, and the basis with SR09 is 370 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [4]. Domestic Futures Sugar Prices - SR09 is 5735 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; SR01 is 5590 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton. The spread between SR09 and SR01 is 145 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton [4]. Exchange Rates and International Commodity Prices - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate is 7.1975, up 0.0030; the Brazilian real - RMB exchange rate is 1.2818, up 0.0212; the Indian rupee - RMB exchange rate is 0.084, down 0.0004. The ICE raw sugar main contract is 16.51 cents/pound, down 0.11 cents/pound; the London white sugar main contract is 573 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton; the Brent crude oil main contract is 66.65 dollars/barrel, up 1.36 dollars/barrel [4]. Supply - related Information - Brazil's central - southern region's sugarcane crushing volume in the second half of April increased year - on - year, the sugar - making ratio remained high, and the expected sugar production in the 25/26 season may reach 42 million tons. The global supply pattern is strong. Imported sugar is expected to arrive in China starting from mid - to - late June, increasing supply pressure in the third quarter. The out - of - quota import cost from Brazil has dropped to 5980 yuan/ton, and the price difference with domestic spot sugar has narrowed to 150 yuan/ton. From January to March, the import of syrup and premixed powder was 242,000 tons (equivalent to about 156,000 tons of sugar), and low - cost substitutes are squeezing the consumption space of domestic sugar [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - **Methanol**: High imports are materializing, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures market is undervalued. It's in a period of bearish factor realization. With the overall supply increasing and macro - instability, the unilateral direction is hard to determine. Given the low valuation, it's inclined to go long at low prices [1]. - **Plastic (Polyethylene)**: The overall inventory of polyethylene is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. Import profit is around -400 with no further increase for now. June maintenance is decreasing, and domestic linear production is increasing. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [5]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The upstream and mid - stream of polypropylene are de - stocking. The basis is +100, non - standard price difference is neutral, and import profit is around -500. Exports are good. In June, supply is expected to increase slightly. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is under medium to excessive pressure, which can be alleviated if exports continue to expand or PDH devices are frequently shut down for maintenance [5]. - **PVC**: The basis has strengthened. The mid - upstream inventory is continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to production capacity commissioning and export sustainability in June. The current static inventory is at a high level but decreasing. Attention should be paid to factors such as exports, coal prices, and terminal orders [9]. 3) Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From May 29 to June 5, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The price of Jiangsu spot increased from 2245 to 2317, while the price of South China spot decreased from 2278 to 2300. The import profit remained at 261 on June 5, and the daily change was 0. The main contract basis was 42, with a daily change of -3, and the MTO profit on the futures market was -966, with a daily change of -4 [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From May 29 to June 5, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 780. The price of North China LL remained at 7050, and the price of East China LD increased by 25. The import profit remained at -281, and the main futures price decreased by 15. The basis decreased by 20, and the two - oil inventory remained at 73 [5]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From May 29 to June 5, 2025, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6350 to 6350, and the Northeast Asia propylene price remained at 745. The East China PP price decreased from 7020 to 7020, and the main futures price decreased by 37. The basis decreased by 20, and the two - oil inventory remained at 73 [5]. PVC - **Price Data**: From May 29 to June 5, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained at 2250 on June 5. The East China calcium carbide - based PVC price decreased from 4720 to 4710. The basis (high - end delivery product) decreased from -70 to -80 [8][9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests that Zhengzhou sugar (Zheng sugar) will maintain a weak and volatile trend [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The global sugar supply is in a strong and loose pattern, with the expected sugar production in the 25/26 season in Brazil's central - southern region reaching 42 million tons due to increased cane crushing and high sugar - making ratios [4] - Pre - imported sugar will arrive at ports from mid - to late June, increasing supply pressure in the third quarter as ICE raw sugar prices triggered domestic purchases earlier [4] - The import cost of Brazilian sugar after out - of - quota has dropped, narrowing the price difference with domestic spot prices, and the import profit has recovered, stimulating subsequent purchases [4] - Low - cost substitutes such as syrups and premixed powders are continuously squeezing the consumption space of domestic - produced sugar [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Sugar Price and Futures Data - Domestic spot sugar prices vary by region: in Nanning, Guangxi it's 6200 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it's 5945 yuan/ton; in Dali, Yunnan it's 5870 yuan/ton; in Rizhao, Shandong it's 6270 yuan/ton [4] - Futures prices: SR09 is 5763 yuan/ton, down 20; SR01 is 5638 yuan/ton, down 22 [4] - The price difference between SR09 and SR01 is 125, up 2 [4] Exchange Rate and International Commodity Price Data - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is 7.2035, down 0.0211; the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB is 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB is 0.084, down 0.0004 [4] - International sugar prices: the ICE raw sugar main contract is 17.1, up 0.06; the London white sugar main contract is 573, up 3 [4] - The price of Brent crude oil main contract is 62.61, down 0.75 [4] Supply - related Information - The expected sugar production in the 25/26 season in Brazil's central - southern region may reach 42 million tons, strengthening the global supply - loose pattern [4] - Pre - imported sugar will arrive at ports from mid - to late June, increasing supply pressure in the third quarter [4] - The import cost of Brazilian sugar after out - of - quota has dropped to 5980 yuan/ton, narrowing the price difference with domestic spot prices to 150 yuan/ton [4] - From January to March, the import of syrups and premixed powders was 242,000 tons (equivalent to about 156,000 tons of sugar), squeezing the consumption space of domestic - produced sugar [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For methanol, high imports are materializing, inventory accumulation has begun, and the market is undervalued. It's in a period of bearish factor realization. With macro - instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine, but due to low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred [3]. - For polyethylene, overall inventory is neutral. The 05 basis is +300 in North and East China. Import profit is around -400 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and LD is weakening. In 2025, new devices pose significant pressure, and attention should be paid to their commissioning [8]. - For polypropylene, upstream and mid - stream inventories are accumulating. The basis is +10, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and import profit is around -500. With few known future maintenance plans, supply is expected to increase slightly. In the context of over - capacity, the 05 contract faces pressure, which can be relieved by export growth or monthly maintenance of 2 million - ton PDH devices [8]. - For PVC, the basis is strengthening. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to commissioning and export sustainability in June. The current static inventory is decreasing from a high level, and factors like exports, coal prices, and terminal orders should be monitored [12]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From May 26 - 30, 2025,动力煤期货 remained at 801. The daily changes in江苏现货,华南现货,鲁南折盘面,西南折盘面,河北折盘面,西北折盘面, CFR中国, CFR东南亚,进口利润,主力基差, and盘面MTO利润 were 0, 20, 5, - 3, 0, 0, 0, 0, 9, 20, - 13 respectively [2]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From May 26 - 30, 2025,东北亚乙烯 remained at 780. The daily changes in华北LL,华东LL,华东LD,华东HD, LL美金, LL美湾,进口利润,主力期货,基差,两油库存, and仓单 were - 10, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, - 65, 30, - 2, 0 respectively [8]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From May 26 - 30, 2025,山东丙烯 and东北亚丙烯 remained stable in some cases. The daily changes in华东PP,华北PP,山东粉料,华东共聚, PP美金, PP美湾,出口利润,主力期货,基差,两油库存, and仓单 were - 30, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, - 43, 20, - 2, - 133 respectively [8]. PVC - **Price Data**: From May 26 - 30, 2025,西北电石 decreased from 2450 to 2350,山东烧碱 increased from 867 to 885. The daily change in基差(高端交割品) was 10 [11][12].

甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/05/2 3 801 2302 2303 2460 2600 2460 2630 256 327 70 50 -818 2025/05/2 6 801 2285 2300 2410 2565 2460 2525 256 327 58 40 -843 2025/05/2 7 801 2250 2275 2390 2520 2325 2505 254 327 39 40 -828 2025/05/2 8 801 2255 2275 2355 2520 2300 2500 255 327 29 25 -825 2025/05/2 9 801 2245 2278 2353 2510 2300 2495 255 327 32 15 -836 日度变化 0 -10 3 -2 -10 0 -5 0 0 3 -10 -11 观点 高进口开始兑现，累库开始发生，盘面低估值，等待淡季预期交易到位；伊朗降开工，非伊增量，国内供应增 加，总体来说处于利 空兑 ...

甲醇聚烯烃早报 塑 料 日期 东北亚乙 烯 华北LL 华东LL 华东LD 华东HD LL美金 LL美湾 进口利润 主力期货 基差 两油库存 仓单 2025/05/2 2 780 7260 7450 9075 7800 855 917 -84 7159 40 80 5312 2025/05/2 3 780 7150 7400 9000 7780 855 917 -109 7085 40 80 5259 2025/05/2 6 780 7100 7375 9000 7780 855 917 -139 7080 60 80 5259 2025/05/2 7 780 7025 7300 8950 7750 855 917 -224 7007 40 80 5259 2025/05/2 8 780 6980 7275 8950 7750 855 917 -224 6972 20 80 5259 日度变化 0 -45 -25 0 0 0 0 0 -35 -20 0 0 观点 聚乙烯，两油库存同比中性，上游过节累库，煤化工累库，下游库存原料中性，成品库存中性。整体库存中性，05基差华北+300， 华东+300，外盘欧美稳，东 ...

塑 料 日期 东北亚乙 烯 华北LL 华东LL 华东LD 华东HD LL美金 LL美湾 进口利润 主力期货 基差 两油库存 仓单 2025/05/2 0 780 7300 7515 9250 7780 855 917 -31 7222 40 82 5312 2025/05/2 1 780 7260 7525 9200 7780 855 917 -5 7221 30 81 5312 2025/05/2 2 780 7260 7450 9075 7800 855 917 -84 7159 40 80 5312 2025/05/2 3 780 7150 7400 9000 7780 855 917 -84 7085 40 80 5312 2025/05/2 6 780 7100 7375 9000 7780 855 917 -84 7080 60 80 5312 日度变化 0 -50 -25 0 0 0 0 0 -5 20 0 0 观点 聚乙烯，两油库存同比中性，上游过节累库，煤化工累库，下游库存原料中性，成品库存中性。整体库存中性，05基差华北+300， 华东+300，外盘欧美稳，东南亚维稳。进口利润-400附近 ...