新华财经北京9月18日电由于失业率上升和全球不确定性抑制了需求，新西兰第二季度经济萎缩幅度远 远超过经济学家的预期。周四公布的数据显示，该国第一季度GDP经修正后增长0.9%，但在截至6月份 的三个月里下降0.9%，此前经济学家预计为收缩0.3%。 去年经历了严重衰退的新西兰经济，对央行大幅降息的反应迟缓。需求降温预计将减轻通胀压力，使新 西兰联储有可能在今年年底前进一步下调利率。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 4% to 4.25%, marking the lowest level since the end of 2022, but the focus is on future monetary policy direction rather than the immediate rate cut [4][13]. Economic Conditions - The significant slowdown in the job market is a primary reason for the Fed's shift in policy [5]. - Recent data shows that from June to August, the average monthly job growth was only 29,000, far below the expected 150,000, with a downward revision of 911,000 jobs added over the past year [7]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% year-on-year in August, the highest level this year, exceeding the 2% policy target, although concerns about inflation are being overshadowed by the urgency of declining employment [8]. Political Context - The upcoming Fed meeting is characterized by unprecedented political pressure, with President Trump advocating for a drastic rate cut to 1% and criticizing Fed Chair Powell [9][11]. - There are ongoing personnel disputes within the Fed, including attempts by Trump to influence board appointments, which could have long-term implications for Fed policy [11][12]. Market Focus - While a rate cut is anticipated, the market is more concerned with the Fed's future signals regarding monetary policy [13]. - Fed Chair Powell's emphasis on prioritizing employment over inflation will be closely monitored, as will the Fed's updated economic forecasts, which will influence market expectations for future rate cuts [14].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is highly anticipated, with market reactions closely tied to the specific phrases used by Chairman Jerome Powell during his address [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Powell's greeting of "good afternoon" typically signals hawkish stances on inflation and interest rate hikes, often leading to a decline in major stock indices, with a noted drop of over 1.5% in the day following such remarks [1] - Conversely, when Powell opens with "hello everyone," it is more likely to indicate dovish signals regarding economic soft landing and policy easing, with historical data showing a greater than 60% probability of the S&P 500 rising the next day [1] Group 2: Technological Adaptation - Wall Street institutions have implemented AI systems to analyze Powell's lip movements in real-time, allowing for rapid trading decisions based on the phonetic sounds he makes [1] - The AI system triggers short positions in Treasury futures within 0.3 seconds upon detecting the "g" sound, while it increases risk asset positions when the "h" sound is identified [1]

机构调查显示，年轻群体和X世代（1965-1980年生）的消费支出增长尤为疲软，这与跳槽涨薪幅度缩 小的现象相吻合，预示着未来消费动能可能减弱。预计美联储将在本周采取降息措施以支撑就业市场， 投资者应密切关注劳动力市场的后续变化，这关乎消费能否持续提供经济支撑。 与此同时，美国劳工统计局发布的进口价格数据显示，8月进口价格环比上涨0.3%，较6月修正后的 0.2%涨幅进一步扩大，远超市场预期的下降0.1%。这是自1月以来的最大环比涨幅，显示外国企业在特 朗普政府关税政策实施后并未降低产品定价。非燃料进口价格环比上涨0.4%，扭转了前月的停滞态 势；燃料进口价格则环比下降0.8%，前值为上涨2.5%。同比来看，8月进口价格与去年同期持平。 在出口方面，8月出口价格环比上涨0.3%，涨幅与7月持平，且高于市场预期的零增长。非农产品出口 价格上涨0.3%，主要受消费品、非农工业供应品及材料、资本货物和机动车辆价格上涨推动。农产品 出口价格环比持平，水果价格上涨抵消了坚果和大豆价格下跌的影响。同比来看，8月出口价格上涨 3.4%，显示海外需求持续稳健。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京9月16日电（崔凯）美国商务 ...

Group 1 - The preliminary report from the University of Michigan indicates a decline in the U.S. consumer confidence index to 55.4 in September, marking the lowest level since May and a second consecutive month of decline [1][2] - The report highlights that the long-term inflation expectations have risen for two consecutive months, contributing to increased uncertainty in the economic outlook [2] - The decline in consumer confidence suggests potential reductions in consumer spending, which could negatively impact overall economic growth [2] Group 2 - Analysts point out that the ongoing decrease in consumer confidence reflects the dual pressures of slowing growth and rising inflation facing the U.S. economy [2] - The increase in the probability of personal unemployment among consumers indicates heightened concerns about job market stability, which weighs heavily on consumer sentiment [2] - Recent data shows that in August, U.S. employers added only 22,000 jobs, significantly below market expectations, indicating a slowdown in the labor market [2]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley predicts the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in each of the remaining three meetings this year, accelerating the timeline from previous expectations of cuts only in September and December [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower rates consecutively starting from next week's meeting, reaching a target range of 3.00%-3.25% by January 2024, with additional cuts anticipated in April and July 2026 [1] - The market anticipates a 92.7% probability of a 25 basis point cut in the upcoming meeting, with a 7.3% chance of a 50 basis point cut, although Standard Chartered is the only institution predicting a 50 basis point cut this month [1] Group 2 - The U.S. added only 22,000 non-farm jobs in August, significantly below the expected 75,000, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, both exceeding expectations [1] - Despite ongoing inflationary pressures, market expectations for rate cuts remain largely unaffected [1] - The Federal Reserve's previous rate cuts from September to December last year totaled 100 basis points, bringing the target range to 4.25%-4.50%, but the Fed has paused cuts five times this year due to inflation risks from tariff policies [2]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices are currently experiencing a volatile upward trend, trading around $3646.18 per ounce, following a slight decline of 0.2% to $3632.49 per ounce [2] - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by 38%, driven by geopolitical risks, inflation pressures, and expectations surrounding U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve monetary policy [2] - The latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August rose by 2.9% year-on-year, marking a seven-month high, while initial jobless claims surged to 263,000, indicating a weakening labor market [2] - Despite a recent pullback from a record high of $3674.36, the overall bullish trend for gold remains intact, with support levels identified around $3620 [3][5] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil futures fell by 0.45% to $66.07 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped by 0.5% to $62.00 per barrel, reflecting ongoing market pressure [6] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global supply growth will outpace expectations by 2025 due to OPEC+ production plans, while OPEC maintains a positive outlook for global demand growth [6] - The oil market is currently facing a dual challenge of increasing supply and demand uncertainties, with OPEC+ deciding to raise production quotas starting in October [6] - Technical analysis indicates that oil prices are in a weak downward trend, with short-term resistance levels at $65.0-$66.0 and support levels at $62.0-$61.0 [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, inflation pressure in the US still exists, but the rebound is relatively limited, supporting the Fed's August rate cut. The increase in the weekly initial jobless claims in the US highlights the downward risk in the job market and boosts the expectation of three rate cuts by the Fed this year, which supports precious metal prices. However, the strong performance of domestic and overseas bond markets restricts the attractiveness of gold, while silver benefits from risk improvement and shows a strong performance similar to industrial products. Before the rate cut is implemented, precious metal prices are expected to remain at a high level, and long positions can be held, but the risk of increased volatility should be watched out for [5]. - In the long - term, due to the Fed's rate - cut expectation, continuous global geopolitical uncertainty, intensified great - power competition, and the wave of de - dollarization, along with the continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to rise [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - On September 11, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.31% to 830.78 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 0.28% to 9,798 yuan/kilogram [5]. Price and Spread Data - **Price Data**: On September 11, compared with September 10, London gold spot rose 0.2%, COMEX silver fell 0.2%, AG (T + D) fell 0.3%, London silver spot rose 0.1%, AU2510 fell 0.3%, COMEX gold fell 0.3%, AG2510 remained unchanged, and AU (T + D) remained unchanged [5]. - **Spread Data**: For spreads on September 11 compared with September 10, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price decreased by 17.1%, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price decreased by 16.3%, the spread of gold domestic - foreign (TD - London) increased by 1.2%, the spread of silver domestic - foreign (TD - London) decreased by 22.0%, the SHFE gold - silver ratio decreased by 0.4%, the AU2512 - 2510 spread increased by 12.0%, the AG2512 - 2510 spread increased by 15.0% [5]. Position and Inventory Data - **Position Data**: For COMEX gold non - commercial long positions on September 10 compared with September 9, the number increased by 14.52%, and for COMEX silver non - commercial long positions, it increased by 7.83%. The number of gold ETF - SPDR positions increased by 16.43%, and the number of silver ETF - SLV positions decreased by 14.79% [5]. - **Inventory Data**: On September 10 compared with September 9, SHFE gold inventory increased by 0.96%, COMEX silver inventory remained unchanged, SHFE silver inventory increased by 0.47%, and COMEX gold inventory increased by 9.14% [5]. Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and Stock Market Data - On September 11 compared with September 10, the 2 - year US Treasury yield remained unchanged, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.98%, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate increased by 2.06%, NYWEX crude oil decreased by 0.04%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.08%, the US dollar index increased by 0.30%, and VIX increased by 1.56% [5].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is preparing to restart a rate-cutting cycle, diverging from other major central banks that are nearing the end of their easing cycles [1][2] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve may cut rates by 25 basis points next week, with a cumulative reduction of nearly 70 basis points by the end of the year, and some institutions do not rule out a 50 basis points cut [1] - The European Central Bank has maintained its rate at 2% and lowered its inflation forecast for 2027 to 1.9%, with a 50% probability of a rate cut around mid-2026 [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan is the only major central bank tightening its monetary policy, with potential for a rate hike by the end of the year despite domestic political uncertainties [1] - The Bank of Canada is expected to restart rate cuts next week due to weak economic conditions and rising unemployment, with two more cuts anticipated by January next year [1] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has already cut rates by 25 basis points last month and is expected to cut again in October and by the end of the year [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing fluctuations but remain in a strong upward trend, with significant support from geopolitical risks and inflation pressures [2][3] - As of September 12, spot gold is trading around $3635.18 per ounce, having seen a slight decline of 0.2% from the previous day, but still close to the record high of $3674.36 set earlier in the week [2] - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by 38%, influenced by U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations [2] Group 2 - Recent U.S. economic data shows that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% year-on-year in August, marking a seven-month high, while initial jobless claims surged to 263,000, indicating a weakening labor market [2] - These mixed signals have led to increased volatility in the market but ultimately reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, providing further support for gold prices [2] - Technical analysis suggests that gold remains above the 5-day moving average, indicating no signs of a top and maintaining a strong bullish trend, with potential targets of $3660 and $3675 [3]