格隆汇2月5日｜英国央行行长贝利：关于进一步降息的判断将变得更加艰难。一方面，过快或过大幅度 降息可能导致通胀压力持续存在。另一方面，等待时间过长可能导致经济活动出现更剧烈的下滑。 ...

标普全球市场情报首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson就美国1月服务业PMI数据表示，在1月份制造业产出强劲增长的支 撑下，服务业持续扩张表明经济正以约1.7%的年化增速增长。但与12月放缓之前的扩张节奏相比，这一增速明显降档， 第一季度GDP增速可能降温。 今日周四(2月5日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于77.68一线下方，今日开盘于88.14美元/盎司，截至发稿，国际白银暂 报75.89美元/盎司，下跌13.93%，最高触及90.41美元/盎司，最低下探73.41美元/盎司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短线偏 向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 标普全球美国服务业采购经理人指数(pmi)为52.5，较上月的八个月低点持平，略低于市场预期的52.8。 92-93美元区域短期阻力，重点96-97和101-103美元区域。支撑短期86-87适当关注，83-84美元依然关键，然后80和75-76 和70-71美元区域。 面向消费者的企业正越来越多地反映经营环境严峻，1月服务需求下降，而在12月已几近停滞，这反映出消费者信心低 迷以及生活成本压力。 尽管金融和商业服务提供商的表现相对更具韧性，但在对经济前景的担忧加剧之 ...

Group 1 - The US services sector recorded its strongest growth momentum since January 2024 for the second consecutive month, indicating a rebound in business activity that supports the expansion of the economy's largest component [1] - The ISM services index remained unchanged at 53.8, marking the highest level since October 2024, with a reading above 50 indicating continued expansion in the services sector [1] - The ISM business activity index surged over 2 points to 57.4, reaching a new high since October 2024, reflecting a significant acceleration in business operations [1] Group 2 - The new orders index fell from a one-year high to 53.1, suggesting a slowdown in demand growth, with notable weakness in overseas customer demand as the export orders index contracted at the fastest pace since March 2023 [1] - Inflationary pressures have increased in the services sector, with the prices paid index rising to 66.6, the highest level in three months, indicating potential cost increases due to changes in trade policies [1] - The supplier delivery index reached its highest level since October 2024, indicating longer delivery cycles and delays, which may further impact operational efficiency [2] - The services inventory index dropped over 9 points to 45.1, marking the largest inventory contraction since mid-2024, reflecting a significant decline in inventory levels among consumer-facing service providers [2] - Overall, while the US services sector maintains expansion momentum at the beginning of the year, factors such as slowing orders, declining export demand, and rising cost pressures indicate future growth may face uncertainties [2]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) has continued its upward trend against the US dollar (USD), reaching a high of 0.7094, the highest since January 2023, driven by positive economic data from China and Australia, a resumption of the interest rate hike cycle by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), and a weakening USD index [1][2] - China's economic performance directly impacts the AUD, with improvements in service and manufacturing PMIs indicating a positive outlook for Australian commodity exports [2][3] - Australia's domestic economy showed strong performance, with the composite PMI rising from 51.0 to 55.7, marking the strongest expansion in 45 months, and the services PMI reaching its highest level since February 2022 [3] Group 2 - The RBA raised the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, marking its first rate hike since November 2023, driven by higher-than-expected inflation data [4] - Inflation pressures in Australia are significant, with the December CPI rising by 1.0%, exceeding expectations, and the January TD-MI inflation indicator showing a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [4][5] - Market expectations for further rate hikes by the RBA have increased, with an 80% probability of a rate hike in May and potential additional hikes totaling around 40 basis points within the year [6] Group 3 - The USD index has been weak, trading around 97.40, influenced by a lack of key economic data from the US and cautious statements from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rates [6] - Despite stronger-than-expected PPI data in the US, market expectations for an early rate cut by the Federal Reserve have not completely dissipated, maintaining a weak outlook for the USD [6] Group 4 - Technically, the AUD/USD is in an upward channel, with a strong bullish trend, although it may face short-term adjustment pressure due to being in the overbought zone [8] - Key resistance for the AUD/USD is at the 0.7100 level, with potential to test the upper channel at 0.7210, while support is concentrated around the 9-day EMA at 0.6964 [8]

Group 1: US Manufacturing Sector - The US manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) unexpectedly rose from 47.9 to 52.6 in January, marking the first entry into the expansion zone in nearly a year and the highest value since February 2022 [1][6] - The PMI has been below 50 for most of the past three years, indicating a prolonged period of economic weakness in the manufacturing sector [1][6] - ISM's chair, Susan Spence, cautioned that January's data should be viewed with caution, as it is typically a month for inventory replenishment post-holidays, and some purchasing may be preemptive against potential price increases due to ongoing tariff issues [1][6] Group 2: Australian Monetary Policy - The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.85% to address significant inflationary pressures expected to rise in the second half of 2025 and demand-driven capacity constraints [2][7] - Despite a notable decline in inflation since its peak in 2022, recent increases indicate stronger capacity pressures, leading to the assessment that inflation may remain above target for some time [2][7] - The statement highlighted that private demand growth is significantly stronger than expected, driven by household consumption and investment, with ongoing activity and price increases in the housing market [2][7] Group 3: Gold Market - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, nearing the 4400 mark and reaching a four-week low, with current trading around 4820 [3][8] - The nomination of Kevin Walsh as Fed Chair has cooled expectations for interest rate cuts, supporting the rise of the US dollar index and putting downward pressure on gold prices [3][8] - The forced liquidation of some long positions after the sharp decline further exacerbated the drop in gold prices [3][8] Group 4: Currency Markets - The Australian dollar (AUD) saw a slight decline due to a strengthening US dollar index, which reached a six-day high, although expectations for further rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia limited the downside [4][9] - The USD/CAD pair rose, hitting a four-day high around 1.3700, supported by strong economic data and a cooling of Fed rate cut expectations, while oil prices fell due to easing geopolitical tensions [5][10]

2月3日（周二），澳洲联储宣布将现金利率目标提高25个基点至3.85%，符合市场预期，此前连续3次 按兵不动。 此举是因为2025年下半年通胀压力显著上升，私人需求增长强劲，劳动力市场紧张，且经济活动加速。 该央行认为通胀可能在一段时间内保持在目标水平之上，因此决定加息以应对通胀压力。 政策声明全文 在今日会议上，委员会决定将现金利率目标上调25个基点至3.85%。 金十数据 尽管通胀自2022年见顶以来已大幅回落，但在2025年下半年明显回升。委员会一直密切关注经济形势， 并认为通胀上升的部分原因反映了产能压力加大。因此，委员会认为通胀在一段时间内仍可能高于目标 水平。 产能压力部分源于近几个月需求动能的增强。私人需求增长显著强于此前预期，既受到居民消费的推 动，也受到投资增长的带动。房地产市场的活动和价格也在持续回升。 2025年金融条件有所放松，目前是否仍具有限制性尚不确定。居民和企业获得信贷的渠道依然通畅，早 前降息的影响尚未完全传导至总体需求、价格和工资。近期，随着市场对现金利率预期上升，汇率、货 币市场利率和政府债券收益率均有所上行。 多项指标显示，劳动力市场状况仍略显偏紧，并在最近几个月趋于稳定 ...

智通财经APP获悉，澳洲联储周二上调了关键利率，成为今年首个加息的主要货币当局。该央行认为，澳大利亚国内通胀压力持续存在，足以证明有必要重 新收紧政策。根据声明，澳洲联储货币政策委员会将现金利率从3.6%上调至3.85%。在2026年的首次会议上，这个由九名成员组成的委员会一致决定收紧政 策，行长米歇尔·布洛克将于悉尼时间下午3:30召开新闻发布会。委员会在声明中表示："过去几个月的一系列数据证实，2025年下半年通胀压力明显回升。 显然，私人需求的增长速度快于预期。" 决议公布后，澳大利亚三年期国债收益率上升5个基点至4.34%，澳元同样走强。 近几个月来，在劳动力市场仍然偏紧的背景下，服务业和住房成本带动价格再度走强令澳洲联储措手不及。去年，澳大利亚经历了发达经济体中持续时间最 短、幅度最小的宽松周期之一。 根据澳洲联储季度《货币政策声明》，尽管假设今年还将再加息两次，但该央行仍上调了今年的通胀、经济增长和就业预测。剔除波动性项目的"修剪均 值"通胀指标目前预计今年将维持在2%—3%目标区间之上，且直到2027年底都不会回到目标区间的中值水平。 在美国，交易员仍坚持押注美联储今年将降息两次。这种政策分化已 ...

决定公布后，澳大利亚三年期国债收益率上涨近11个基点至4.35%，澳元兑美元一度上涨1.1%至 0.7023。 澳大利亚央行周二上调关键利率，成为今年首个加息的主要央行，因其认为国内通胀压力持续存在，需 要再次采取限制性措施。 根据一份声明，澳大利亚央行委员会将现金利率从3.6%上调至3.85%，抵消了去年三次降息中的一次。 在2026年的首次会议上，由九名委员组成的委员会一致决定放松货币政策，行长Michele Bullock将于当 地时间下午3点30分在悉尼举行新闻发布会。 "近几个月来的大量数据已确认，2025年下半年通胀压力显著上升，"制定利率的委员会在声明中表 示。"显然，私人需求增长速度超出预期。" 责任编辑：王永生 澳大利亚央行周二上调关键利率，成为今年首个加息的主要央行，因其认为国内通胀压力持续存在，需 要再次采取限制性措施。 "近几个月来的大量数据已确认，2025年下半年通胀压力显著上升，"制定利率的委员会在声明中表 示。"显然，私人需求增长速度超出预期。" 决定公布后，澳大利亚三年期国债收益率上涨近11个基点至4.35%，澳元兑美元一度上涨1.1%至 0.7023。 责任编辑：王永生 根据 ...

受贵金属跌势延续及美国制造业数据意外强劲推动，美元走高，即将创下 4 月以来最大两日涨幅。美元 周一对所有主要非美货币均录得上涨，彭博美元指数两个交易日累计涨幅约1.2%，创下10个月前特朗 普总统推出大规模关税引发市场动荡以来的最大涨幅。 黄金、 白银价格周一双双下挫，延续上周以来 的跌势。此前特朗普宣布提名凯文・沃什接任鲍威尔，出任美联储主席。市场认为，相较于其他候选 人，沃什更倾向于采取行动遏制通胀压力上升。这一立场或转化为支撑美元的货币政策，进而削弱曾推 动黄金大涨的货币贬值交易。 ...

美国就业市场继续不温不火。美国劳工部数据显示，美国上周初请失业金人数20.9万人，预期20.5万 人，前值由20万人修正为21万人。持续申请失业救济金人数降至185万人，环比减少3.8万人。 牛津经济研究院高级经济学家施瓦茨（Bob Schwartz）在接受第一财经记者采访时表示，年末贸易、运 输和仓储成本高企，使得去年12月生产者价格通胀率同比维持在3%的高位。如果贸易政策趋稳，加之 提前备货行为结束，或有助于2026年运输和仓储成本下降，关税对物价的传导效应在逐步释放，但整体 物价或仍高于2%的美联储设定目标。 科技股能否卷土重来。 美股本周尾盘走低，不过三大股指仍以亮眼表现收官1月。下周市场将迎来月度就业报告，外界对货币 政策预期可能对风险偏好产生影响，同时还有谷歌、亚马逊、AMD等多家企业发布核心财报，或将继 续引发指数盘中剧烈波动，各板块走势分化格局下，波动性风险并未完全释放。 通胀压力打击降息前景 本周美国有大量经济数据出炉，同时降息前景依然并不明朗。 美国商务部周五称，12月生产者价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.5%，高于前值0.2%的涨幅，同比涨幅达 3.0%，高于市场预期的2.7%。剔除食品和 ...