Core Insights - The UK labor market is showing signs of further weakening due to sluggish economic growth, with the unemployment rate rising to 5.1% for the period of August to October 2025, which is higher than the same period last year and the previous three months [1] - Employment rate during the same period stands at 74.9%, remaining stable compared to last year but lower than the previous three months [1] - Employee income growth is also slowing, with salaries excluding bonuses increasing by 4.6% year-on-year, and including bonuses by 4.7%. The private sector wage growth has decreased from 4.2% to 3.9%, while the public sector wage growth has increased from 6.6% to 7.6% [1] - The data indicates a further slowdown in the UK labor market, leading to market expectations that the Bank of England will lower the benchmark interest rate on the 18th [1]

从结构上看，经济走弱的迹象具有一定广泛性。Williamson表示，庞大的服务业新业务流入几乎陷入停 滞，而制造业则出现了一年来首次工厂订单下降。虽然部分制造企业仍在报告产出增加，但在销售放缓 的背景下，这样的生产节奏被认为难以持续，若需求未能在新一年回暖，企业或被迫削减产量。与此同 时，服务业企业反映，12月销售增长为2023年以来最疲弱的月份之一。 通胀压力同样引发关注。调查显示，企业成本上涨速度升至2022年11月以来最高水平，推动销售价格出 现近三年来最显著的涨幅之一。Williamson指出，关税再次被企业普遍视为价格上涨的重要原因，其最 初对制造业的影响正逐步向服务业蔓延，从而加剧整体的"可负担性"问题。 在金融市场层面，疲软的PMI数据公布后，美元指数承压回落，日内一度下跌约0.3%，报97.96。避险 情绪升温推动金价走强，现货黄金升至每盎司4330美元上方，刷新当日高点，显示投资者对美国经济前 景与通胀走势的关注正在升温。 智通财经APP获悉，美国最新公布的标普全球PMI初值显示，12月美国私营部门经济活动仍处于扩张区 间，但扩张动能明显放缓，多项指标降至数月低点，释放出经济增长趋弱的信号。 ...

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 14640, with a recent opening at 14974 and a current price of 14720, reflecting a decrease of 0.37% [1] - The highest price reached was 15192, while the lowest was 14237, indicating a short-term bullish trend in silver futures [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has adjusted the margin ratios and price fluctuation limits for silver futures contracts, increasing the fluctuation limit to 15% and the margin for holding positions to 16% [2] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan's Tankan survey indicates ongoing inflationary pressures, leading to expectations of an interest rate hike from 0.5% to 0.75%, a level not seen in 30 years [2] - The anticipated rate hike may trigger a wave of unwinding in "yen carry trades," potentially exerting significant pressure on global risk assets, particularly dollar-denominated assets [2] - The silver market is characterized by lower liquidity, making it more susceptible to large capital movements, which could increase future volatility [2]

Attention is increasingly shifting from current policy to what the Fed may look like by mid-2026. Kevin Hassett remains the leading candidate to succeed Chair Jerome Powell and has consistently argued that policy rates below 3% are reasonable over the long term. Should he be appointed—and if other board changes tilt dovish—Fed leadership could move decisively toward a growth-first stance. At the same time, disinflationary pressures are becoming clearer. Energy prices are easing, rent inflation is slowing, a ...

Group 1 - The silver price has surpassed $63 per ounce, attracting significant attention in the precious metals market, with potential for further increases [1] - The recent trend indicates a shift in capital back into the silver market, with $48 per ounce seen as a re-entry point for many investors, laying the groundwork for future price increases [1] - The core driver of rising prices is the expanding real demand, particularly due to the acceleration of global electrification and increased metal material needs in AI infrastructure [3] Group 2 - The silver market is characterized by a long-term tight supply and increasing demand, which is a key reason for the strong price performance [3] - Despite silver prices reaching $63, it remains undervalued compared to gold, with historical gold-silver ratios typically between 50 and 60, and some forecasts suggesting a potential drop to around 40 [3] - Retail investment demand remains resilient, providing additional support to the market, while recent policy rate cuts have contributed to a more accommodative monetary environment [3] Group 3 - Multiple factors, including potential declines in real yields and resistance in the dollar, contribute to a long-term bullish outlook for silver prices [4] - The silver market is currently in a phase of value reappraisal, indicating that the upward trend in silver prices may not be over and warrants ongoing attention [4]

12月12日，周五，亚市早盘，现货黄金在经历前一夜大涨之后，目前在开盘价稍低点位开始横盘震荡。 昨天黄金的走势也如我们预期的一样，白盘一直在4215美元附近横盘震荡，最低点位在4205美元附近， 美盘强势拉升至4285美元。昨天文章给到的就是黄金回踩4200-4205多进场，不过目标只给到4250附 近，没想到晚间的涨势如此凶猛，还好利润也比较可观。 在全球经济不确定性笼罩下，黄金作为传统避险资产再次闪耀光芒。周四（12月11日），随着美联储连 续第三次降息25个基点，黄金价格强势反弹，现货黄金上涨约1.2%，触及每盎司4285美元的逾一个月 高点，而白银更是创下每盎司64.30美元的历史新高。这一轮贵金属行情的爆发，不仅源于美元走软和 通胀压力持续，还受到了即将公布的非农就业报告以及全球地缘政治动荡的推动。投资者们应密切关注 这些因素如何交织影响黄金的未来走势。 基本消息面： 美联储的货币政策调整无疑是此次黄金价格上涨的核心催化剂，尽管市场对此已有广泛预期，但美联储 决策者的措辞和预测显示出鸽派倾向，他们强调将监测劳动力市场趋势，并承认通胀"仍然偏高"，这种 表态让投资者解读为进一步降息的可能性并未完全关闭 ...

新华社纽约12月10日电 题：美联储内部分歧加剧 进一步降息空间有限 新华社记者刘亚南 这一表述曾在2024年12月货币政策声明中出现，美联储此后暂停降息，直至今年9月。市场据此认为， 美联储释放了暂时不会再降息的信号。 鲍威尔当天在记者会上说，自2024年9月开启本轮降息周期以来，联邦基金利率已下调175个基点。他 说："联邦基金利率现在位于宽泛的中性利率估测区间，我们现在处于良好位置，可以等待和观察经济 形势如何发展。" 同时，美联储发布的经济预测摘要显示，美联储官员预测的2025年和2026年联邦基金利率中位数维持在 3.4%和3.1%不变。与当前3.5%至3.75%的利率目标区间相比，美联储明年和后年预计将分别再降息25个 基点。 芝加哥商品交易所美联储观察工具显示，截至当日下午6时许，市场认为美联储在明年1月货币政策会议 上维持利率不变的概率为77.%，高于前一日的69.8%。 内部分歧加大 美国联邦储备委员会10日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布降息25个基点。这是美联储自9月以来连 续第三次降息，也是自2024年9月启动本轮降息周期以来第六次降息。 分析人士认为，美联储内部围绕是否进一步降息分歧 ...

Hansen指出，当前人工智能(AI)领域估值处于高位，若出现估值回调引发相关投资大幅放缓，不仅会削 弱芯片及数据中心基础设施的白银需求，还将压制整体市场风险偏好。 此外，相对估值水平同样值得警惕：当前金银比价回落至68附近，基本与30年历史均值持平，较4月超 过105的高点已大幅下行。从历史维度衡量，白银已脱离显著低估区间。 盛宝银行补充道，这一估值变化在供需约束主导力减弱的常态市场环境下将尤为关键。在此背景下，白 银或进入震荡整理阶段，部分资金可能回流至黄金品种，但不会完全撤出贵金属市场——毕竟黄金与白 银仍具备对冲财政风险、通胀压力及地缘政治波动的属性。 从技术面来看，市场正密切关注白银能否站稳54-55美元区间。盛宝银行强调，若银价能突破该区间并 站稳上方，将强化2026年交易区间上移的预期;尤其是该行预判黄金价格有望冲击5000美元关口，也将 对银价形成支撑。 智通财经APP获悉，盛宝银行周三发布报告指出，受货币政策、市场结构及现货供需等多重罕见利好共 振，2025年白银价格涨幅已超一倍，一举突破60美元关口刷新历史新高，展望2026年，白银牛市格局仍 将延续，但需警惕部分潜在风险扰动。 截至发稿， ...

Group 1 - The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently at 1.3853, showing a slight increase of 0.0001 from the previous trading day, with a fluctuation range indicating stability in the market [1] - Recent Canadian employment data exceeded expectations, reinforcing the Bank of Canada's strong policy stance, which supports the Canadian dollar [1] - Global trade concerns are affecting the Canadian export environment, limiting the appreciation potential of the Canadian dollar [1] Group 2 - The USD/CAD pair is experiencing a balance of forces, with key resistance at 1.3875 and support at 1.3800, indicating a potential range-bound movement [2] - Technical indicators suggest a market in a wait-and-see mode, with MACD convergence and RSI in a neutral zone [2] - Upcoming U.S. employment data and central bank policy decisions are expected to influence short-term volatility in the USD/CAD exchange rate [2]

上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 特朗普突然释放重磅信号。 美国总统特朗普在最新访谈中明确表示，支持立即大幅降息将成为其选择新任美联储主席的关键标准。有分析 指出，这一表态凸显了特朗普对货币政策的干预意图，可能加剧白宫与美联储之间的紧张关系。 在美联储公布利率决议前夕，隔夜美股市场窄幅震荡，三大指数收盘涨跌不一。其中，华尔街巨头摩根大通股 价盘中大幅跳水，暴跌超4%，拖累道指走低、由涨转跌。 消息面上，摩根大通高管警告2026年支出将大幅 增加，投资者担忧其业绩增速或将放缓。 特朗普最新发声 当地时间12月9日，美国政治新闻网站Politico报道，特朗普明确表示，支持大幅降息将成为他挑选下一任美 联储主席的决定性因素。 在最新的采访中，当被问及是否将支持大幅降息作为美联储主席提名人选的考察标准时，特朗普明确回应 称："是的。" 报道称，这一表态打破了历届总统在美联储人事任命上保持相对克制的传统，可能对美联储的独立性构成挑 战。 美联储主席的任命将直接影响未来数年的货币政策走向。特朗普对降息的明确偏好，可能促使其选择倾向于宽 松货币政策的候选人，这与市 ...