Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that Samsonite's adjusted EBITDA for Q2 is $141 million, roughly in line with the expected $145 million [1] Financial Performance - Revenue decreased by 5.8% year-on-year at constant exchange rates, driven by cautious purchasing decisions from wholesale clients [1] - Wholesale channel revenue fell by 8.7% year-on-year, while direct sales only saw a decline of 1.3% [1] Management Outlook - Management anticipates some improvement in sales patterns for Q3, although ongoing trade policy uncertainties and inflationary pressures are affecting consumer sentiment and demand [1] - The company is taking measures to mitigate tariff impacts, including increasing inventory before tariff hikes and raising prices [1] Forecast Adjustments - UBS has raised its adjusted EBITDA forecasts for Samsonite for the years 2023 to 2027 by 2% to 4%, along with a 2% increase in net sales forecasts [1] - It is expected that the year-on-year revenue decline will narrow in the second half of the year, with an overall anticipated revenue drop of 5% for the year [1] Target Price and Rating - UBS has increased its target price for Samsonite to HKD 17.2, maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1]

她强调："我不想出现这样的情况，即因为过于担心通胀可能会再度出现或者持续存在，而因此迟迟不 做出明确表态，从而导致我们未能为劳动力市场提供必要的支持。" 不过，戴利明确反对在美联储9月会议上一次性降息50个基点。她在周三的采访中表示："对我来说，50 个基点听起来就像我们看到了紧急情况——我担心它会发出一个紧急信号，而我并不认为劳动力市场有 如此强劲的势头，我没有看到需要'追赶'的理由。" （文章来源：新华财经） 与此同时，美国7月零售销售额实现环比增长，超出预期。增长主要得益于汽车销售强劲以及大型线上 促销活动带动，反映出消费者支出保持韧性，进一步提振了市场对美国经济增长的乐观情绪。 戴利指出："劳动力市场逐渐趋缓，经济虽在放缓但尚未陷入停滞，而通胀率仍高于美联储的目标水 平。这种情况表明今年某个时候可能会有几次降息。当然，我们会等待数据结果，也许降息次数会少一 些，也许会多一些，但总体而言，我认为降息两次是一个合理的预期。" 新华财经北京8月18日电旧金山联储主席戴利在周五接受采访时表示，尽管近期经济数据显示美国7月零 售销售额超出预期且生产者价格指数（PPI）意外大幅上涨，她仍支持美联储在下个月开始放松 ...

Group 1 - The effective tariff rate paid by importers is significantly lower than the official rate, which has helped mitigate inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy [1][3] - As of June, only 48% of U.S. imports were actually subject to tariffs due to numerous exemptions, including critical goods like pharmaceuticals and electronics [3] - Importers have adjusted their sourcing strategies, turning to countries with lower tariffs or domestic suppliers, contributing to a lower effective tariff rate [4] Group 2 - The current low effective tariff rates may not be sustainable, with predictions that the average tariff rate could rise from approximately 10% to around 15% [6] - The White House plans to suspend the "minimum exemption" rule, which previously allowed duty-free entry for packages valued under $800 [7] - Companies are beginning to pass on increased costs to consumers, with some planning price hikes in response to clearer tariff outlooks [9]

Core Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in the U.S. rose significantly in July, exceeding market expectations, indicating renewed inflationary pressures in the upstream supply chain [1][3] - Experts warn that the cost pressures from tariffs are accelerating down the supply chain, potentially leading to a wave of bankruptcies among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the U.S. [1][7] Group 1: PPI Data - The PPI increased by 0.9% month-over-month in July, marking the largest rise since June 2022 [3] - Year-over-year, the PPI rose by 3.3%, significantly higher than June's 2.3% and the market expectation of 2.6%, representing the highest level since February of this year [3] Group 2: Tariff Impact - As of June, U.S. businesses bore 64% of the tariff costs, while consumers covered 22%. If tariffs continue to rise, consumers are expected to bear 67% of the costs by October [5] - Current tariff policies may lead to a 1% decline in U.S. GDP and an increase in inflation by 1% to 1.5% [5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The likelihood of the U.S. economy contracting for two consecutive quarters is estimated at 90% if current tariff policies remain unchanged, with a projected GDP decline of 4% [7] - SMEs are particularly vulnerable and may face a wave of bankruptcies if the economic downturn continues [7]

数据证实消费者的担忧并非空穴来风。美国劳工部14日公布，美国7月份生产者价格指数（PPI）显著上涨，涨幅超出市场预期，显示美国 产业链上游面临新一轮通胀压力。 央视网消息：美国关税政策导致消费者对通胀的担忧加剧。美国密歇根大学15日公布，8月的美国密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值为 58.6，低于7月的终值61.7。 密歇根大学表示，美国消费者对未来一年通胀的预期从7月的4.5%升至8月的4.9%，远高于目前2.7%的通胀水平。这反映出美国消费者对 关税影响的持续担忧，并对通胀的走向感到不安。 银率网公司高级经济分析师马克·哈姆里克称："所以我认为这非常令人担忧，因为我们看到的是这种价格压力正在供应链的深处聚集，但 还没有完全释放给消费者。综合来看，通胀似乎是在3%的水平，而不是美联储确定的2%的目标。情况在变得更糟，而不是更好，可能还有更 多的压力正在传导。" 据美国高盛集团此前的研究显示，截至6月份，美国消费者消化了大约22%的关税成本，如果美国政府加征关税政策延续，这一数字可能 在未来上升到67%。 美国金融服务公司银率网公司高级经济分析师马克·哈姆里克在接受媒体采访时表示，生产者价格指数上涨意味着目前有极 ...

美国7月零售销售环比增长0.5%，这已是连续第二个月零售销售出现大幅增长，同比涨幅达到3.9%。6月数据大幅上修至0.9%。 经通胀调整后的实际零售销售同比增长1.2%，连续第十个月实现正增长，显示消费者支出保持韧性。尽管软性调查数据对消费者信心表示担忧， 但消费者仍在持续购买。 15日，美国商务部公布的数据显示： 美国7月零售销售环比增0.5%，预期增0.6%，前值从增0.6%修正为增0.9%。 美国7月零售销售(除汽车)环比增0.3%，预期增0.3%，前值从增0.5%修正为增0.8%。 美国7月零售销售(除汽车与汽油)环比增0.2%，预期增0.3%，前值从增0.6%修正为增0.8%。 所谓的"控制组"销售——纳入政府GDP商品支出计算的指标——7月环比增长0.5%，超出预期的0.4%，前值也获得上修。该指标排除了餐饮服务、 汽车经销商、建材商店和加油站。 美国7月零售销售广泛反弹 7月零售销售数据显示消费活动的广泛改善。未经通胀调整的零售销售环比增0.5%，略低于预期的0.6%，但6月数据从此前公布的0.6%上修至 0.9%。剔除汽车销售后，7月销售增长0.3%，符合市场预期。 13个类别中有9个录得增长 ...

美国7月零售销售环比增长0.5%，这已是连续第二个月零售销售出现大幅增长，同比涨幅达到3.9%。6月数据大幅上修至0.9%。 美国7月零售销售广泛反弹 经通胀调整后的实际零售销售同比增长1.2%，连续第十个月实现正增长，显示消费者支出保持韧性。尽管软性调查数据对消费者信心表示担忧，但消 费者仍在持续购买。 15日，美国商务部公布的数据显示： 7月零售销售数据显示消费活动的广泛改善。未经通胀调整的零售销售环比增0.5%，略低于预期的0.6%，但6月数据从此前公布的0.6%上修至0.9%。剔 除汽车销售后，7月销售增长0.3%，符合市场预期。 13个类别中有9个录得增长，汽车销售领涨各个类别，录得3月以来最大增幅。在线零售商和综合商品店销售也实现增长，可能受益于亚马逊延长的 Prime Day、沃尔玛为期一周的"优惠"活动以及Target类似促销活动的推动。家具、体育用品等录得稳健增长的几个类别在当月也出现了一些价格上涨。 美国7月零售销售环比增0.5%，预期增0.6%，前值从增0.6%修正为增0.9%。 美国7月零售销售(除汽车)环比增0.3%，预期增0.3%，前值从增0.5%修正为增0.8%。 美国7月零售销 ...

1. Market Performance 1.1 International Precious Metals - COMEX gold futures fell 0.76% to $3382.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.47% to $38.04 per ounce [2][47]. 1.2 Crude Oil - The main contract of U.S. crude oil rose 2.04% to $63.93 per barrel, and the main contract of Brent crude oil rose 1.92% to $66.89 per barrel [3][48]. 1.3 London Base Metals - LME nickel fell 1.4%, LME tin fell 0.87%, LME copper fell 0.27%, while LME zinc rose 0.48%, LME aluminum rose 0.31%, and LME lead rose 0.1% [3][50]. 1.4 Domestic Futures - Domestic futures contracts mostly declined. LPG rose over 1%, while rapeseed meal fell over 2%, and rapeseed oil, 20 - rubber, synthetic rubber, and caustic soda fell over 1% [4]. 1.5 Financial Markets - A - shares fluctuated, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.46% to 3666.44 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.87%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.08%. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.37% to 25519.32 points [30][32]. 2. Important Information 2.1 Macroeconomic Information - Fed's Daly opposed a 50 - basis - point rate cut at the September meeting. The U.S. 7 - month PPI far exceeded expectations. China's central bank conducted 500 billion yuan of 6 - month reverse repurchase operations [6][7]. 2.2 Energy and Chemical Futures - Domestic soda ash inventory increased, while Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased. Russia's refined oil exports reached a high level [11][12][15]. 2.3 Metal Futures - The China Chemical and Physical Power Supply Industry Association issued an initiative for the energy storage industry, and the operating capacity of alumina increased [17]. 2.4 Black - series Futures - A coal mine in Shanxi planned to resume production, and coal supply in Shaanxi tightened. Steel production and inventory showed different trends [19][21]. 2.5 Agricultural Product Futures - Argentina's soybean and corn production had new forecasts. India's palm oil and sunflower oil imports changed, and U.S. soybean and corn exports were lower than expected [25][27]. 3. Company Performance - JD Group's second - quarter revenue increased by 22.4%. NetEase's second - quarter revenue increased by 9.4%. Foxconn's second - quarter revenue and profit reached new highs [34][35][10]. 4. Industry Dynamics 4.1 Aviation - The China Air Transport Association issued an aviation passenger self - discipline convention [36]. 4.2 Semiconductor - China's first domestic commercial electron - beam lithography machine entered application testing [37]. 4.3 Express Delivery - In July, express delivery business revenue increased by 8.9%, and business volume increased by 15.1% [38]. 4.4 Real Estate - Shanghai real - estate platforms hid historical transaction prices of second - hand houses [39]. 4.5 Banking - Financial regulators in some regions proposed "anti - involution" measures for the banking industry [41]. 5. Overseas Markets 5.1 U.S. - Trump signed an executive order to relax commercial space regulations. U.S. PPI data affected market expectations [42]. 5.2 UK - UK's second - quarter GDP grew by 0.3% [42]. 5.3 International Stock Markets - U.S. stocks were mixed, European stocks rose, and Japanese stocks fell [43][45][46]. 5.4 Bonds - Domestic and U.S. bond yields generally rose [51]. 5.5 Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB rose against the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. dollar index rose [52]. 6. Upcoming Events and Data Releases 6.1 Data Releases - Multiple economic data will be released, including Japan's GDP, China's economic indicators, and U.S. retail sales [55]. 6.2 Events - There are events such as central bank operations, news conferences, and corporate earnings releases [57].

数据公布后，美国股市走弱，美元和美国长期国债收益率走高。分析人士认为，当日公布的数据显示美 国企业面临成本上涨压力，并可能进一步向下游转移。 责编：张青津、张霓 劳工部表示，7月份生产者价格指数上涨主要被服务业驱动。服务业生产价格指数当月环比涨幅达 1.1%，为2022年3月以来的最大涨幅。 扣除波动较大的食品和能源，7月份核心生产者价格指数环比涨幅同样为0.9%，同比涨幅为3.7%，大幅 高于前一个月2.6%的同比增长。 新华社纽约8月14日电（记者刘亚南）美国劳工部14日早间发布数据显示，美国7月份生产者价格指数 （PPI）显著上涨，涨幅超出市场预期，显示美国产业链上游面临新一轮通胀压力。 数据显示，7月份生产者价格指数环比上涨0.9%，大幅高于6月份的零增长和市场预期的0.2%，为2022 年6月以来的最大涨幅；该指数同比涨幅为3.3%，大幅高于6月份的2.3%和市场预期的2.6%，为今年2月 以来的最高水平。 ...

美国7月CPI数据显示通胀压力仍相对温和，市场担忧的关税推动通胀急剧上升的情况尚未出现。总体CPI环比上涨0.2%，符合市场预期，同比涨幅为 2.7%，低于预期的2.8%。核心通胀率升至2月来最高水平，主要受服务业价格上涨推动。 市场认为，尽管核心通胀略有反弹，但7月CPI数据整体温和，消除了美联储降息的一大障碍。交易员大幅提高了对美联储9月降息的预期，目前概率高 达95%。 8月12日，美国劳工统计局公布数据显示： 核心CPI方面，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，7月份环比上涨0.3%，符合预期；但同比涨幅达到3.1%，高于预期的3.0%，创下 自2月份以来的新高。 报告显示，医疗服务、机票、娱乐、家庭用品以及二手车和卡车等分项指数在7月有所上涨，而酒店住宿和通讯等少数分项指数则有所下降。 服务业价格全面上涨，机票价格出现三年来最大涨幅 燃料油和交通运输成本涨幅最大，但汽油和家庭食品成本环比有所下降。 | | | | | Seasonally adjusted changes from preceding month | | | | Un- adjusted | | --- | --- | --- | -- ...