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集运日报：部分班轮公司1月初运价不及宣涨，主力合约偏弱震荡，符合日报预期，已建议全部止盈。-20251219

Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-12-19 08:04

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. - Market sentiment is bearish, with a decline in bullish sentiment. Some liner companies' freight rates in early January are lower than the announced increases, and the main contract is fluctuating weakly. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Shipping Index Data - On December 15, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1510.56 points, up 0.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 924.36 points, down 3.8% from the previous period [2]. - On December 12, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1060.86 points, up 10.23% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1064.13 points, up 9.98% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1029.8 points, up 17.28% from the previous period [2]. - On December 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) published price was 1506.461 points, up 108.83 points from the previous period; the SCFI European - line price was 1538 USD/TEU, up 9.86% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1780 USD/FEU, up 14.84% from the previous period [2]. - On December 12, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1118.07 points, up 0.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1470.55 points, up 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 798.95 points, down 2.3% from the previous period [2]. Economic Data - The eurozone's November composite PMI flash was 52.4, slightly lower than October's 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The services PMI flash was 53.1, higher than the previous value and the expected value, achieving the best monthly performance in a year and a half [2]. - The eurozone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, better than the expected - 7 and the previous - 7.4 [2]. - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with improved business levels. In October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [3]. - The US November S&P Global services PMI flash was 55, better than the expected 54.6 and the previous 54.8. The US November S&P Global composite PMI flash was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month, better than the expected 54.6 and the previous 54.6 [3]. Main Contract Data - On December 18, the main contract 2602 closed at 1668.8, with a decline of 3.06%, a trading volume of 27,000 lots, and an open interest of 31,600 lots, a decrease of 318 lots from the previous day [3]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: The main contract has rebounded after a pullback, and the fluctuation of far - month contracts has slowed down. Risk - takers were previously advised to take a light - position long in the main contract, and now all positions are advised to be closed. No further positions are recommended, and no positions should be held without stop - loss. Stop - loss should be set [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or take a light - position attempt [4]. - Long - term strategy: All contracts are advised to take profit when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [4]. Other Information - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4].