证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 12 12 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 怎么看 2026 年美联储降息节奏？ 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【宏观】增量信息不少—中央经济工作会议 6 大看点——20251211 【宏观】怎么看 2026 年美联储降息节奏？——兼评 12 月议息会议—— 20251211 【金融工程】低偏离度下的纯粹 Alpha 创造——兴银基金中小盘指增策 略探析——20251211 【非银金融】保险行业 2025 行情回顾——阶段性超额收益显著，全年跑 输大盘——20251211 ◼ 研究视点 【电子】蓝思科技（300433.SZ）-收购服务器业务公司，加码 AI 算力核 心布局——20251211 作者 | 分析师 | 杨润思 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0680520030005 | | | | | 邮箱：yangrunsi@gszq.com | | | | | 行业表现前五名 | | | | | 行业 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 1 年 | | 通信 | 12.9% | 7.6% | 81.1% | | 国防 ...

Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company's operating revenue reached ¥749,208,450.93, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.24% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was ¥163,219,495.34, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 173.36% [2] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was -¥1,856,071.61, indicating a decline of 103.42% compared to the previous year [3] Product Development in Optical Communication - The main optical communication products currently in mass production include MTP/MPO fiber jumpers, high-density fiber jumpers, fiber array components, and conventional fiber jumpers [4] - The company plans to enhance R&D investment and improve technical capabilities to maintain competitiveness in the optical communication sector [4] MPC Product and Applications - MPC (Metal PIC Coupler) provides high-density optical connection solutions for emerging onboard and co-packaged applications, designed to reduce transmission loss and enhance system efficiency [5] - MPC-related products have passed customer certification and are currently in the NPI stage, with small-scale production expected to begin mid-next year [5][6] Production Base in Vietnam - The production base in Vietnam has commenced operations, with an expected output value of ¥500 million by next year [7] - The company plans to invest part of the raised funds into building an intelligent manufacturing base in Vietnam, projected to achieve an output value of ¥700 million upon full production [7] - Once all production bases in Vietnam are fully operational, the total expected output value will reach ¥1.2 billion [7] Acquisition Progress - The company is in the process of acquiring Hengyang Data, with updates provided in response to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's inquiries [8] - The acquisition involves a commitment to achieve a cumulative net profit of no less than ¥300 million over three years, with annual targets of ¥90 million, ¥100 million, and ¥110 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [12] Future Growth Points - Hengyang Data's focus on AI computing centers, cloud computing data centers, and edge computing infrastructure is expected to drive future growth [10] - The data processing business is also expanding, with products aimed at network visualization and comprehensive solutions successfully sold in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa [11]

Macro Strategy - The report highlights a shift in policy focus from "preventing and mitigating risks in key areas and external shocks" to "better coordinating domestic economic work and international economic struggles," indicating a more proactive approach to external economic conditions [1][16] - There is a transition from stabilizing asset prices to stabilizing microeconomic entities, emphasizing the importance of employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations over real estate and stock markets [2][16] - The policy language has evolved from "extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments" to "increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment efforts," reflecting a balance between short-term stimulus and long-term economic structure considerations [2][16] Economic Indicators - The report anticipates a continued decline in the growth rate of social financing in November, while export growth is expected to turn positive [3][17] - The ECI supply index is reported at 49.93%, indicating a slight decline, while the demand index is at 49.87%, showing a marginal increase [17] - The report notes that the financing demand remains low, with expectations for November's new loans to be between 450 billion to 500 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decrease [17] Industry Insights - The semiconductor industry is expected to see structural opportunities driven by the explosion of AI computing power and accelerated domestic production [11] - In the electronics sector, the demand for AI-driven OS agents is anticipated to lead to a smartphone replacement wave, with AR glasses expected to see significant market entry in 2026 [11] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic enterprises in the storage sector, which are benefiting from increased procurement by cloud service providers, leading to a "super cycle" in pricing [11] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a balanced and proactive ETF allocation strategy in the A-share market, anticipating a period of range-bound trading with potential for sector rotation [7] - Specific recommendations include focusing on companies in the engineering machinery sector that have high export profitability, as well as those in the semiconductor and AI equipment sectors [12]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference discusses the emerging AI mobile phone market, particularly focusing on the development of AI assistants and the competition between customized architecture chips (ASICs) and general-purpose GPUs, primarily from companies like NVIDIA and Google [1][3][9]. Core Insights and Arguments - **AI Mobile Phones**: The introduction of the Doubao phone marks the initial phase of AI mobile phones, showcasing AI assistants that can perform tasks through natural language commands, similar to an upgraded version of Apple's Siri. Major companies like Apple, Samsung, and Google are expected to follow suit by 2026 [1][12]. - **ASIC vs. GPU**: Customized architecture chips (ASICs) are designed to accelerate specific algorithms at the cost of generality, while NVIDIA's GPUs maintain flexibility for a broader range of developers. In the short term, ASICs are not expected to completely replace GPUs, as both will drive the evolution of AI infrastructure [1][5][9]. - **Investment Trends**: Global investment in AI computing power is accelerating, with significant capital expenditures expected from major cloud service providers (CSPs) in North America, potentially reaching $600 billion by 2026, which raises concerns about funding gaps in the coming years [3][11]. - **NVIDIA's CUDA Toolkit Update**: The release of CUDA toolkit version 13.1 is the most significant update in 20 years, introducing Python-level abstractions for Tensor Core functions, enhancing usability for developers and addressing the needs of large model development [1][8]. Additional Important Insights - **Challenges for AI Mobile Phones**: AI mobile phones face challenges such as heat dissipation, battery life, and memory limitations when running small to medium parameter models. Future solutions may involve distilling high-parameter models into smaller ones [1][13]. - **Apple's Hardware Innovations**: Apple is gradually adopting steel-shell battery technology, which offers greater capacity and safety, expected to extend to more models by 2026. However, Apple is perceived to be lagging behind Android in hardware upgrades necessary for AI capabilities [4][15][14]. - **Voice Interaction and Acoustic Technology**: The demand for high-performance MEMS microphones is increasing to enhance voice interaction accuracy in AI mobile phones. This trend is expected to drive innovation in the acoustic sector, with significant investments anticipated [4][16]. - **Earphone Market Growth**: The earphone market is poised for growth, with new products expected to integrate sensors, enhancing user engagement and driving industry competition [4][17]. - **AI Glasses Market Potential**: AI glasses are seen as an ideal medium for information interaction, with several manufacturers planning to test the market with new products in the coming months. The long-term outlook suggests that glasses with display capabilities will become a trend [18][19]. Investment Opportunities - Key investment opportunities include advancements in AI mobile products from major OS ecosystems like Apple and Google, hardware innovations in response to rising storage costs, and new device forms such as earphones and glasses that enhance user interaction [20].

Core Viewpoint - The listing of Moore Threads on the STAR Market marks a significant milestone for China's semiconductor industry, positioning it as the first fully functional GPU company to enter the capital market, further solidifying the narrative of a "Chinese version of Nvidia" [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - On its debut, Moore Threads opened at 650 CNY per share, a 468.78% increase from the issuance price of 114.28 CNY, with an intraday high of 688 CNY, leading to a market capitalization exceeding 305.5 billion CNY [3]. - Early investors in Moore Threads, such as Peixian Qianyao Technology, saw returns as high as 6021 times their initial investment, highlighting the lucrative potential of the domestic GPU sector [3]. Group 2: Industry Context - Both Moore Threads and another GPU company, Muxi, achieved public listing within five years, breaking the typical 12-15 year timeline for tech companies [4]. - The year 2020 marked the beginning of domestic GPU development, with many talents from overseas chip giants returning to start businesses, including key figures from Nvidia and AMD [4]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - Moore Threads has invested over 4.3 billion CNY in R&D from 2022 to June 2025, with its MTT S5000 supporting trillion-parameter model training, matching the efficiency of international counterparts [5]. - Muxi's new C700 chip is expected to rival Nvidia's H100, with mass production anticipated in 2027 [5]. Group 4: Revenue Growth - Moore Threads' revenue is projected to grow from 0.46 million CNY in 2022 to 4.38 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 208.44% [5]. - Muxi's revenue is expected to surge from 42.64 thousand CNY to 743 million CNY over the same period, with a CAGR exceeding 4000% [5]. Group 5: Market Dynamics - The rise of domestic GPU companies is reshaping the global AI computing landscape, driven by significant demand for AI computing power and the exit of Nvidia from the Chinese market due to export controls [4][5]. - The STAR Market has created a favorable environment for hard-tech companies, with the anticipated explosion of AI computing demand in 2025 providing a critical funding window [4].

Summary of Ding Tai Gao Ke Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Ding Tai Gao Ke - **Industry**: PCB (Printed Circuit Board) manufacturing, specifically focusing on drilling tools and materials for PCB production Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Ding Tai Gao Ke reported a **29% year-on-year revenue growth** and a **64% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders**, driven by the surge in demand for AI computing servers [2][5] - Revenue increased from **1.219 billion CNY in 2022** to **1.58 billion CNY in 2024** [5] Product Structure and Profitability - PCB drilling tools account for approximately **75% of the company's revenue**, with grinding and polishing materials achieving a gross margin of **61%**, significantly higher than the **35%** margin from drilling tools [2][6] - The introduction of high aspect ratio drilling tools and layer drilling tools has notably contributed to margin improvements [2][6] Market Dynamics - The demand for HDI boards and high-layer count boards is rapidly increasing, with leading PCB manufacturers' capital expenditures rising by nearly **70% year-on-year** in 2025 [2][7][8] - The evolution of server architecture, such as the Ruby Ultra solution, has increased the importance and value of PCBs, leading to a doubling of PCB demand due to the increased number of chips per server [2][10] Future Outlook - The PCB drilling tool market is expected to reach a market size of **13 to 15 billion CNY** by 2027, with Ding Tai Gao Ke's market share potentially increasing from **30% to 40%**, leading to a projected profit of **2 billion CNY** [3][22][23] - The company plans to expand its monthly production capacity from **120 million units by the end of 2024** to **180 million units by 2026** [3][16] Competitive Advantages - Ding Tai Gao Ke holds a **30% market share** and has a strong competitive edge due to its rapid expansion capabilities and in-house production of equipment, which reduces costs significantly [3][16] - The company’s self-manufactured equipment costs only **30% of imported equipment**, enhancing profit margins [16] Industry Trends - The PCB industry is anticipated to peak in 2027, driven by changes in server architecture and increased shipment volumes [22] - The shift to high-frequency and high-speed signal transmission materials, such as the new 麻九 Q fabric, is expected to further increase the demand for drilling tools [11][13] Challenges and Considerations - The increase in board thickness has led to a significant rise in drilling tool consumption, with the number of tools required per hole increasing from **one to four** as board thickness increases [12] - Material changes, while improving signal transmission, have also resulted in a decrease in the number of holes a single drill can process, impacting overall efficiency [13] Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its overseas presence through acquisitions, such as the purchase of the German MPK company, and establishing a factory in Thailand [20] - Ding Tai Gao Ke is also advancing in high-end product development, with a focus on high aspect ratio drilling tools [19] Conclusion - Ding Tai Gao Ke is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for PCBs driven by AI computing needs, with strong financial performance, competitive advantages in production, and a strategic focus on high-end product development and international expansion [22][23]

计算机行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 太空算力未来可期，关注核心收益环节 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 我们认为 AI 算力以及卫星信息基础设施相关标的都有望受益太空算力的发展： AI 算力：海光信息(688041，买入)、寒武纪-U(688256，未评级)； 卫星基础设施：中科星图(688568，未评级)、佳缘科技(301117，未评级)、航天宏图 (688066，增持)、盛邦安全(688651，未评级)。 风险提示 研发进展不及预期； 商业化进展不及预期。 国家/地区 中国 行业 计算机行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 02 日 看好（维持） | 陈超 | 执业证书编号：S0860521050002 | | --- | --- | | | chenchao3@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 浦俊懿 | 执业证书编号：S0860514050004 | | | pujunyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 宋鑫宇 | 执业证书编号：S0860524090002 | | | songxinyu@orient ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market - A" with a maintained rating [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of AI computing power driven by innovations such as Google's TPU and Huawei's open-source AI container technology, which enhance computational efficiency and resource utilization [1][2]. - The report indicates a new investment landscape in AI computing with the IPOs of companies like Moer Thread and Muxi, signaling strong market interest and potential growth [3]. - The report discusses the potential of space computing as a new frontier for AI, with significant initiatives from both private companies and government entities to establish data centers in space [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The computer sector has shown a relative performance increase of 1.57% against the Shanghai Composite Index this week, with an absolute gain of 2.97% [17][18]. - The overall performance of the computer sector has been strong, ranking 12th among 30 industry indices [20]. Important Industry News - Google's TPU has set a new direction for AI computing with its ASIC integration, supporting large model training [1][13]. - Huawei's Flex:ai technology aims to optimize AI workload management, addressing low resource utilization in domestic computing [2][14]. - The commercial space sector is rapidly evolving, with plans for large-scale data centers in orbit to meet the growing demand for AI computing power [4][16][26]. - The establishment of China's first large-scale photonic quantum computer manufacturing facility marks a significant advancement in quantum technology [24]. - Beijing's initiative to build a space-based data center by 2035 aims to leverage the advantages of the space environment for AI development [26].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that cloud computing is undergoing a significant transformation, with traditional giants like AWS focusing on AI transitions while new players like CoreWeave are emerging as key players in the AI infrastructure space, referred to as "Neocloud" [3][6] - CoreWeave has rapidly evolved from a cryptocurrency mining company to a unicorn valued at $37 billion, with revenue skyrocketing 100 times in two years, driven by strategic partnerships with NVIDIA and major clients like OpenAI and Microsoft [5][9] - The future of CoreWeave is uncertain; it could either become the next Amazon or face a fate similar to the Cisco bubble of the early 2000s, highlighting the need for a cautious approach to investment in Neocloud [3][22] Neocloud Emergence - AI's demand for computing power has exposed the limitations of traditional cloud architectures, creating opportunities for Neocloud providers like CoreWeave, which focus on delivering NVIDIA GPU power efficiently [6][7] - NVIDIA's strategy involves supporting new players like CoreWeave to counterbalance established giants, ensuring that they remain reliant on NVIDIA's technology [8] CoreWeave Analysis - CoreWeave's revenue is projected to grow from $16 million in 2022 to $1.9 billion in 2024, with expectations to double again to $5 billion in 2025 due to large contracts with OpenAI and Microsoft [9] - The company's business model is likened to a financial firm, leveraging long-term contracts with major clients to secure debt financing for GPU acquisitions [11] Operational Challenges - CoreWeave faces significant operational challenges, including high debt levels exceeding $19 billion and a net loss of $715 million in the first nine months of 2025, indicating a high-leverage, low-margin business model [13][15] - The company is heavily reliant on Microsoft, which accounted for 62%-72% of its revenue in 2024, posing a risk if Microsoft develops its own capabilities [15] Competitive Landscape - Other players in the Neocloud space, such as Nebius, are emerging with different risk profiles; Nebius is noted for its low debt and strong cash position, projecting $1 billion in annual recurring revenue by 2025 [18][19] - Applied Digital operates as a data center provider for Neocloud companies, avoiding the risks associated with GPU depreciation while benefiting from the appreciation of data center assets [20] Future Outlook - If CoreWeave maintains its growth trajectory, it could reach revenues of $65 billion by 2030-2032, with a potential market valuation of $650 billion, contingent on sustained AI demand and market share retention [22] - Investors are advised to focus on execution capabilities, diversify risks, and monitor Microsoft's developments closely, as these factors will significantly impact CoreWeave's future performance [23][24]

Group 1 - The report highlights the anticipated launch of Google's Gemini 3.0, which is expected to catalyze sentiment around AI computing power. The performance improvements observed during testing indicate significant advancements in commercializing large models [2][13]. - Gemini 3.0 has demonstrated impressive capabilities in various fields such as web front-end design, operating system UI simulation, and music creation, showcasing a hundredfold increase in monthly token processing from 9.7 trillion to over 1,000 trillion [3][13]. - The deployment of TPUv7 in 2026 is projected to significantly boost demand for high-end infrastructure components like PCB and optical modules, driven by the performance enhancements of the latest TPU generation [3][13]. Group 2 - The report discusses the acquisition of Kuixin Technology by Heshun Petroleum, which aims to control 51% of the company. Kuixin is positioned as a leading player in the domestic communication interface IP market, with projected revenues of 193 million and 110 million yuan for 2024 and the first half of 2025, respectively [4][14]. - Kuixin Technology's product offerings include various protocol interface IPs, and it is one of the few companies providing complete chiplet solutions in China. The acquisition is expected to ignite investment sentiment in the domestic communication interface IP sector [4][14]. - The global interface IP market is projected to reach $2.37 billion in 2024, with a 28% share of the overall IP market, benefiting from the growth in AI computing power [4][14]. Group 3 - The report identifies several key trends in the domestic AI chip market, including the shift towards chiplet architectures to manage heat and yield issues, and the importance of UCIe as the primary communication protocol for chiplets [5][15]. - The decoupling of domestic HBM particles from imported HBM IP is highlighted as a strategy to enhance performance and reduce manufacturing costs, facilitating the independent packaging of HBM modules [6][16]. - The report emphasizes the necessity of communication interface IP as a foundational technology for the growth of domestic AI chips, with significant market opportunities arising from increased chip shipments and domestic substitution rates [17]. Group 4 - The overall market performance for the week of November 10-14, 2025, showed declines across major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.18% and the Shenwan Communication Index down 4.77% [8][18]. - Among the sectors, liquid cooling and operators showed slight gains, while several individual stocks experienced significant fluctuations, with Cambridge Technology and Beishida gaining while New Yisheng and Yuanjie Technology faced notable declines [8][32].