Report Information - Report Title: Shanghai Zinc Industry Daily Report 2025-12-23 [2] - Researcher: Chen Sijia [3] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Certificate: F03118799 [3] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0022803 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - It is expected that Shanghai zinc will be adjusted strongly. Attention should be paid to the support at 23,000 and the upper level at 23,400 [4]. - The upstream zinc ore import volume has declined, and the losses of Chinese imported zinc concentrates have widened. The domestic refinery's raw material winter reserve has started, and it prefers to purchase domestic zinc concentrates. However, the competition among refineries to purchase domestic ores has increased, and the domestic and foreign processing fees have dropped significantly. The profits of domestic refineries have shrunk, and the output is expected to decline significantly. Recently, the price of LME zinc has corrected, the Shanghai-London ratio has rebounded, and the export window may be closed again. On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually turning to the off-season, the real estate sector is a drag, the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening, while the policy support in the automotive and other fields brings some bright spots. The downstream market mainly purchases on demand at low prices. Recently, the zinc price has been oscillating and adjusting, the trading is dull, the spot premium is high and stable, the domestic inventory has increased slightly, the LME zinc inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has been significantly reduced [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - Shanghai Zinc Main Contract Closing Price: 23,090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan [3]. - LME Three-Month Zinc Quote: 3,078 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5.5 US dollars [3]. - Shanghai Zinc Total Open Interest: 198,719 lots, an increase of 3,609 lots [3]. - Shanghai Zinc Top 20 Net Open Interest: 3,279 lots, an increase of 1,678 lots [3]. - Shanghai Futures Exchange Inventory: 76,017 tons, a decrease of 4,560 tons [3]. - LME Inventory: 99,250 tons, a decrease of 650 tons [3]. 2. Spot Market - Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network 0 Zinc Spot Price: 23,090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan [3]. - Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market 1 Zinc Spot Price: 22,970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan [3]. - ZN Main Contract Basis: 0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan [3]. - LME Zinc Premium (0 - 3): -33.43 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.82 US dollars [3]. - Kunming 50% Zinc Concentrate Factory Price: 20,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 870 yuan [3]. - Shanghai 85% - 86% Broken Zinc Price: 16,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - WBMS: Zinc Supply and Demand Balance: -35,700 tons, a decrease of 14,700 tons [3]. - ILZSG: Zinc Supply and Demand Balance: 20,300 tons, a decrease of 27,600 tons [3]. - ILZSG: Global Zinc Mine Production: 1.0666 million tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons [3]. - Domestic Refined Zinc Production: 665,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons [3]. - Zinc Ore Import Volume: 340,900 tons, a decrease of 164,500 tons [3]. 4. Industry Situation - Refined Zinc Import Volume: 18,836.76 tons, a decrease of 3,840.75 tons [3]. - Refined Zinc Export Volume: 8,518.67 tons, an increase of 6,040.84 tons [3]. - Zinc Social Inventory: 1.192 million tons, an increase of 500 tons [3]. 5. Downstream Situation - Galvanized Sheet Production: 2.34 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons [3]. - Galvanized Sheet Sales: 2.42 million tons, an increase of 140,000 tons [3]. - New Housing Starts Area: 490.6139 million square meters, an increase of 36.6239 million square meters [3]. - Housing Completion Area: 348.61 million square meters, an increase of 37.3212 million square meters [3]. - Automobile Production: 3.279 million vehicles, an increase of 52,000 vehicles [3]. - Air Conditioner Production: 14.204 million units, a decrease of 3.8908 million units [3]. 6. Option Market - Zinc At-the-Money Call Option Implied Volatility: 18.84%, an increase of 4.28 percentage points [3]. - Zinc At-the-Money Put Option Implied Volatility: 18.84%, an increase of 4.28 percentage points [3]. - Zinc At-the-Money Option 20-Day Historical Volatility: 13.07%, unchanged [3]. - Zinc At-the-Money Option 60-Day Historical Volatility: 11.67%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points [3]. 7. Industry News - China's LPR has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months: the 5-year LPR in December is 3.5%, and the 1-year LPR is 3% [3]. - Trump's "appointed" director Milan said that if the Federal Reserve does not continue to cut interest rates next year, there will be a risk of recession. The Federal Reserve's voting members in 2025 are hawkish: there is no need to cut interest rates in the next few months, and the CPI in November was underestimated [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The raw material supply of ferronickel is expected to contract due to the approaching rainy season in the Philippines, declining nickel ore grades, tightening raw material inventories of domestic ferronickel plants, and a significant reduction in Indonesia's RKAB plan next year, which will put pressure on ferronickel production [2]. - Although stainless - steel mills' production profits have improved and the traditional peak demand season has passed, the decline in stainless - steel production is expected to be limited, and supply pressure still exists [2]. - Downstream demand is entering the off - season, and stainless - steel exports are decreasing. Market purchasing willingness is low, but the national stainless - steel social inventory is seasonally decreasing slightly [2]. - Technically, stainless - steel futures show increased volume, reduced positions, and rising prices. The bearish sentiment has declined, breaking through the key resistance of MA60. It is expected that stainless - steel futures prices will adjust strongly, with support at MA5 and the upper target at 13,100 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,905 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the 01 - 02 contract spread is - 190 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 16,375 lots, a decrease of 8,491 lots; the main contract position is 100,771 lots, a decrease of 7,250 lots [2]. - The stainless - steel warehouse receipt quantity is 47,705 tons, a decrease of 607 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,550 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The SS main contract basis is 365 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 22,900 metal tons, an increase of 1,200 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 9,939.65 tons, a decrease of 18,631.22 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 905,100 tons, a decrease of 180,200 tons [2]. - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 125,250 yuan/ton, up 3,450 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 890 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2]. - The monthly Chinese chromite production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. 产业情况 - The monthly 300 - series stainless - steel production is 1.8 million tons, an increase of 37,300 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 570,100 tons, a decrease of 17,600 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. 下游情况 - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 49,0613,900 square meters, an increase of 36,623,900 square meters [2]. - The monthly excavator production is 30,900 units, a decrease of 700 units; the monthly production of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,900 units, a decrease of 4,300 units; the monthly production of small tractors is 9,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. 行业消息 - China's LPR has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months. In December, the 5 - year LPR is 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR is 3% [2]. - Trump - "appointed" Fed governor Milan said that if the Fed does not continue to cut interest rates next year, there will be a recession risk. Rising unemployment may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, domestic and international copper prices fluctuated narrowly, with domestic refined copper spot imports remaining in a loss. The Fed officials have significant differences in the expected interest rate cuts next year, and the market focuses on whether the new Fed chairman can maintain the independence of monetary policy. China's LPR has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months. The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark has been set at $0/ton and $0/cents per pound. LME copper inventory decreased by 2,650 tons, Comex inventory increased by 4,247 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 2,803 tons. With the rise in copper prices, downstream procurement became cautious. Under the loose macro - environment, copper maintains a strong trend. Fundamentally, low inventory and demand resilience support the price, but high prices may suppress some physical purchases. It is recommended to buy on dips but not to chase high prices [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina fluctuated strongly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated weakly. Several mines increased shipments and large - scale mines resumed production, supporting near - and long - term ore arrivals. Due to the lack of profit in Xinjiang delivery warehouses, warehouse receipts began to flow out, and the increase in imported alumina continued to put pressure on spot alumina. Alumina continued to decline and converged with futures, and the high spot premium continued to narrow. Aluminum ingots with shipping difficulties in Xinjiang may be concentrated in warehouses, facing the pressure of inventory accumulation. After the macro - sentiment is priced in, the upward momentum of aluminum prices is relatively weak, and it will continue to oscillate at a high level [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel rose 2.42% and Shanghai nickel rose 2.82%. LME nickel inventory decreased by 162 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1,320 tons. The Indonesian nickel miners' association plans to significantly reduce nickel ore production in 2026, and the government plans to revise the calculation formula of the nickel commodity's mineral benchmark price. Fundamentally, the domestic social inventory of primary nickel increased slightly, and LME inventory decreased. News boosted nickel prices, but attention should be paid to the actual implementation, and caution should be exercised when chasing high prices [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight price fluctuations, macro - uncertainties, new processing fee benchmark, inventory changes, and downstream procurement caution. Under the loose macro - environment, copper shows a strong trend, but high prices may affect demand. It is recommended to buy on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy price trends, supply - side changes such as mine shipments and warehouse receipt flows, and the pressure on inventory accumulation. Aluminum prices will continue to oscillate at a high level [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Price increases, inventory changes, news - related production reduction plans and benchmark price formula revisions. News boosts prices, but caution is needed [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On December 22, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 93,665 yuan/ton, up 1,345 yuan from December 19. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 2,803 tons, and the total inventory increased by 6,416 tons. The active contract import loss decreased by 1,185.9 yuan [5]. - **Aluminum**: On December 22, 2025, the Wuxi quotation was 21,930 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan from December 19. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 100 tons, and the total inventory increased by 515 tons. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 1.2 tons, and that of alumina increased by 2.9 tons [6]. - **Nickel**: On December 22, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 125,125 yuan/ton, up 1,725 yuan from December 19. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1,320 tons, and the total inventory increased by 603 tons. The social inventory of nickel increased by 2,122 tons [6]. - **Zinc**: On December 22, 2025, the main settlement price was 23,075 yuan/ton, up 0.3% from December 19. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.07 tons [8]. - **Tin**: On December 22, 2025, the main settlement price was 342,040 yuan/ton, up 0.9% from December 19. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE inventory increased by 704 tons [8]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][10][12] - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts show the spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [18][23][24] - **LME Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [26][28][30] - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [33][35][37] - **Social Inventory**: Charts show the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [39][41][43] - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [46][48][50] 4. Introduction of the Non - Ferrous Metals Team - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, and a gold intermediate investment analyst. He has over a decade of commodity research experience and his team has won awards [53]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [53]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [54].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The economic indicators released in November put pressure on the upside of A-shares, but the positive tone set by the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference provides strong support for the bottom of the A-share market. - This week, the market is in a macro data vacuum period, and it will maintain range - bound trading in the absence of clear trading signals. - Although the US dollar index has rebounded recently, the RMB exchange rate is strengthening, supporting the expectation of loose monetary policy in January 2026. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Prices**: The prices of IF, IH, IC, and IM main and secondary contracts all increased. For example, the IF main contract (2603) rose to 4564.8, up 40.0; the IM main contract (2603) rose to 7203.6, up 61.6. - **Contract Spreads**: Most of the spreads between different contracts increased, such as the IF - IH monthly contract spread rising to 1572.4, up 27.2. - **Net Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased. For example, the IF top 20 net position increased by 1372.0 to - 26,070.00. - **Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, and IC main contracts decreased, while the A - share trading volume and margin trading balance increased. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Index Prices**: The prices of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.69%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.23%. - **Market Sentiment**: The north - bound trading volume increased, the main funds showed an inflow, and the proportion of rising stocks decreased. [2] 3.3 Industry News - The LPR remained unchanged in December, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the 5 - year - plus LPR at 3.5%. - A - share major indexes closed higher, with most industry sectors rising. The communication sector was strong, while the media and banking sectors declined. - Overseas, the US November CPI dropped more than expected, increasing the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in January. Domestically, the economic fundamentals were weak in November, and the PPI - CPI gap widened for two consecutive months, with deflation pressure remaining. [2] 3.4 Key Events to Watch - The US, Europe, and Hong Kong will be closed for Christmas from December 24 - 25. - China's November industrial enterprise profits data will be released at 9:30 on December 27. [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the LPR (Loan Prime Rate) is expected to be frequently adjusted downward before early 2025, influenced by the "prepayment wave" and global interest rate trends [3] - The LPR has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months since May, despite high expectations for a reduction [3] - There is a strong anticipation for a rate cut in the domestic market, aligning with global trends, especially following the recent 25 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve, bringing the target range to 3.75%-4% [3] Group 2 - A potential wave of interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions is anticipated before the upcoming "Two Sessions" in 2024, aimed at boosting confidence in the economy [5] - The primary task for the government is to stabilize the economy, as indicated by high-level directives [5] - Borrowers with mortgages are encouraged to maintain faith in the eventual arrival of interest rate cuts, despite the current stagnation in LPR adjustments [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged at 3.0% for the 1-year term and 3.5% for the 5-year term as of December 22, 2025, aligning with market expectations and indicating stability in monetary policy [1][4]. Group 1: LPR Stability - The December LPR remains consistent with previous values, reflecting no changes in policy rates [4]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 67.3 billion yuan at a stable rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 63.6 billion yuan [4]. - The stability in LPR pricing is attributed to rising financing costs for commercial banks amid historically low net interest margins [4]. Group 2: Economic Context - Since June, the LPR has not changed, supported by strong export performance and rapid development in new productive sectors, contributing to economic resilience [5]. - The PBOC's data shows that the weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans was approximately 3.1% in November, down about 30 basis points year-on-year, indicating low loan rates [5]. - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy to support stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the PBOC may implement a new round of interest rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026, potentially before the Spring Festival, to stimulate financing demand [6]. - The current low inflation levels provide ample room for monetary policy adjustments, including interest rate cuts [6]. - Expectations of further interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve in December may ease constraints on domestic monetary policy flexibility [6].

2025.12.22 作者 |第一财经 杜川 LPR继续"按兵不动"，连续7个月保持不变。 中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年12月22日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年 期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。两个期限LPR均与上月持平。 背后的根本原因是受年初以来出口持续超预期等支撑，今年宏观经济顶住外部环境剧烈波动压力，增长 韧性超出普遍预期。"下半年以来经济增长动能有所弱化，但实现全年'5.0%左右'的经济增长目标已没 有悬念。年底前逆周期调节加力的迫切性不高，货币政策保持较强定力。"王青称。 从近期政策表述看，12月中央经济工作会议提及"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具"，表述重点更 多落在政策的效率和主动性上；对宏观政策表述为"加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度"，后续政策改革更加 基于长远经济周期变化。 本文字数：932，阅读时长大约1.5分钟 政策利率保持稳定、银行业净息差承压这两个直接原因导致12月两个期限品种的LPR报价保持不变。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，央行7天期逆回购利率保持稳定，意味着12月LPR报价的定价基础 没有发生变化，已在很大程度上预示当月LP ...

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of a one-time credit repair policy by the People's Bank of China aims to provide relief for borrowers with overdue credit information, effective from January 1, 2026 [1]. Group 1: Eligibility and Application - The one-time credit repair policy applies to overdue information under four conditions: it must be displayed in the financial credit information database, generated between January 1, 2020, and December 31, 2025, involve a single overdue amount not exceeding 10,000 yuan, and the borrower must fully repay the overdue debt by March 31, 2026 [5][6]. - The policy does not differentiate between types of loans, including personal business loans, housing loans, consumer loans, and credit cards, as long as they meet the eligibility criteria [7]. - The application process is automatic, meaning individuals do not need to apply or submit any documentation; the credit information system will identify and process eligible overdue information [8]. Group 2: Costs and Timeline - There are no fees associated with this policy, and any requests for payment or personal information under the guise of this policy are considered scams [9]. - Changes to the display of overdue information will occur based on the repayment timeline: if debts are settled by November 30, 2025, the information will not be displayed from January 1, 2026; if settled between December 1, 2025, and March 31, 2026, the information will be updated by the end of the following month [10]. Group 3: Information Verification - Individuals can verify whether their overdue information has been adjusted through various channels, including online platforms like banking apps and the official credit reporting website, as well as offline methods such as self-service query machines [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market is not likely to experience a significant downturn due to strong support from continuous ETF buying behavior [1] - As of December 15, the total ETF shares reached 3.3 trillion, with a total scale of 5.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 2 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year, indicating substantial inflow of funds into the market [1] - The stability of the LPR, with a one-year rate at 3.0% and a five-year rate at 3.56%, has positively impacted economic growth and market expectations, contributing to market stability [1] Group 2 - The market is seeing continuous buying and selling of the CSI 500 ETF, which has reached a scale of 245.935 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 32.7 billion yuan last week, accounting for 70% of the net inflow of stock ETFs [2] - Major ETFs from companies like Huaxia, Guotai, and E Fund have scales exceeding 20 billion yuan, indicating ongoing capital inflow rather than outflow [2] - The analysis suggests that the market is likely to continue oscillating at its current position and may gradually break upwards, with a focus on the performance around the 3900-point mark [2]

Group 1 - The one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) in China will be announced on December 22 [2] - Domestic oil prices are expected to experience a "triple decline" as the new pricing window opens on December 22, with a total of 24 adjustments this year, resulting in a decrease of 745 yuan/ton for gasoline and 715 yuan/ton for diesel compared to the end of last year [2] - A total of 19 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked today, with a combined market value of 78.543 billion yuan, including significant unlocks from Huadian Energy, Shouchuang Securities, and Ankuo Technology [2] Group 2 - One company has disclosed its stock repurchase progress, with Zhongheng Group completing a repurchase amounting to 18.8144 million yuan [3] - Two A-shares will undergo stock registration today, with China Railway and Western Securities offering dividends of 0.82 yuan and 0.20 yuan per 10 shares, respectively [4]