1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The price of Shanghai lead may rebound slightly in the short - term due to inventory reduction, but the rebound height is expected to be limited. Subsequently, it will decline from high levels due to demand. It is recommended to adopt a "high - short" trading strategy and pay attention to the new impacts brought by tax policy changes [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,970 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 1,977.5 dollars/ton, down 4 dollars. The 06 - 07 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is - 5 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The Shanghai lead position is 69,335 lots, down 3,470 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 1,944 lots, down 181 lots. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 40,961 tons, up 1,995 tons. The SHFE inventory is 49,504 tons, up 2,718 tons; the LME lead inventory is 251,800 tons, down 1,625 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,010 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the lead main contract is - 220 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The LME lead premium (0 - 3) is 5.95 dollars/ton, up 1.26 dollars. The price of lead concentrate 50% - 60% in Jiyuan is 15,929 yuan, down 250 yuan. The price of domestic secondary lead (≥98.5%) is 16,690 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead is - 18,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons. The number of secondary lead production enterprises is 68. The capacity utilization rate of secondary lead is 54.41%, up 18.29 percentage points. The monthly output of secondary lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 77.51%, down 1.68 percentage points. The weekly output of primary lead is 35,300 tons, down 600 tons. The processing fee of lead concentrate 60% at major ports is - 20 dollars/kiloton, unchanged. The ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is 16,400 tons, an increase of 48,800 tons. The global lead ore output is 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons. The lead ore import volume is 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons. The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 720 yuan/ton, unchanged. The refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The average price of waste batteries in the market is 10,121.43 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries is 41.45 million units, down 425,000 units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 20,850 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells is 1,690.39 points, up 42.4 points. The monthly automobile production is 3.0446 million vehicles, down 454,000 vehicles. The monthly new - energy vehicle production is 1.647 million vehicles, up 73,000 vehicles [2] 3.6 Industry News - The US Treasury Secretary will study how to solve non - tariff barriers; Trump signed an executive order to reduce drug prices and threatened car tariffs on non - price - reducing countries; US tariff revenue in April surged 130% year - on - year to 16 billion dollars. The Fed Governor Kugler supports keeping interest rates unchanged and still believes tariffs will have a significant impact. Trump announced a "grand tax - cut bill" proposing a 4 - trillion - dollar tax cut over ten years, raising the debt ceiling by 4 trillion dollars, and not mentioning a tax increase on millionaires [2]

Group 1 - The market sentiment towards global trade relations is improving, leading to a negative correlation between risk assets and the euro's performance [1] - The euro has recently been viewed as a hedge against U.S. policy uncertainty, benefiting from safe-haven inflows during stock market declines [1] - The euro has depreciated significantly, dropping to 1.1079 against the dollar, marking a one-month low, with 1.10 identified as a key support level [1] Group 2 - Analysts predict that the euro may continue to face pressure, with any further trade progress potentially accelerating its decline [1] - Some institutions remain optimistic about the euro, with forecasts suggesting it could rebound later this year as the Federal Reserve begins to cut rates, potentially reaching 1.17 by the end of 2025 and 1.24 by the end of 2026 [1] - Deutsche Bank has revised its forecast, now expecting the euro to rise to 1.20 by December and further to 1.30 by the end of 2027 [2] Group 3 - The market has adjusted its expectations for the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate cuts, which may support the euro [2][3] - ECB Governing Council member Schnabel has expressed a cautious stance on further rate cuts, indicating that maintaining rates near current levels is appropriate [2] - Current market bets place the ECB's deposit rate at 1.75%, higher than previous estimates of 1.55% to 1.67% [3]

英国央行货币政策委员格林：总体而言，我认为关税将对英国产生反通胀作用，这也是我决定利率的一 个因素。 ...

智通财经5月10日电，美联储COOK表示，关税政策可能会降低生产率，限制潜在产出，增加通胀压 力。生产率较低的经济可能需要更高的利率来遏制通货膨胀。 ...

【行情回顾】 周四，特朗普宣布与英国达成"突破性"贸易协议，美元指数触及4月10日以来的最高读数，最终收涨 0.76%，报99.86。现货黄金则一度下触3290美元，最终收跌1.79%，报3304.98美元/盎司；现货白银收跌 0.15%，报32.45美元/盎司。 【要闻汇总】 摘要周四，特朗普宣布与英国达成"突破性"贸易协议，美元指数触及4月10日以来的最高读数，最终收 涨0.76%，报99.86。现货黄金则一度下触3290美元，最终收跌1.79%，报3304.98美元/盎司；现货白银收 跌0.15%，报32.45美元/盎司。 MarketPulse by OANDA分析师Zain Vawda说，"理论上讲，此举应该会提振金价，因为来自亚洲大国的 需求增加会成为一个因素。然而，目前的市场动态主要是围绕关税的发展。" 周四数据方面，美国经济报告显示劳动力市场依然稳固，这让美联储松了一口气。周三美联储维持利率 不变。与此同时，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，他不急于降低利率。交易员等待周五美联储官员的最新评 论。 【交易思路】 国际黄金：下方关注3290美元或3260美元附近支撑；上方关注3350美元或3380美元附近阻 ...

Core Viewpoint - The downward trend of inflation in the UK continues, and there is no expectation of a sustained surge in inflation [1] Group 1 - Interest rates are not in an "autopilot" mode, indicating a more active approach to monetary policy [1] - The expectation is that inflation will not experience a significant spike in the near future [1]

英国央行货币政策委员曼恩和英国央行首席经济学家皮尔投票决定维持利率不变。 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-08 美联储维持利率不变 市场要闻与重要数据 今日凌晨，美联储议息会议连续第三次维持利率不变，声明中强调通胀和失业率上升的风险走高。鲍威尔高呼不 确定性因素以及继续观望等待的成本很低，表示不急于降息。鲍威尔还称无意主动与特朗普会晤，后者的降息呼 吁无碍美联储的工作。美元有所走强，黄金则是出现冲高回落的情况。地缘方面，印度将在拉贾斯坦邦靠近国际 边界的地区开展大规模空战演习，此外印度方面还表示，如果巴基斯坦对袭击做出回应，印度也将做出回应。乌 克兰方面，乌克兰央行行长正在开始审议是否应该把欧元而不是美元作为参考货币。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-05-07，沪金主力合约开于 802.00元/克，收于 803.50元/克，较前一交易日收盘 1.09%。当日成交量为 413639手，持仓量为 188308手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于 803.10 元/克，收于 802.68 元/克，较昨日午后收盘 上涨0.07%。 2025-05-07，沪银主力合约开于 8240元/千克，收于 8252元/千克，较前一交易日收盘-1.31%。当日成交量为 537686手，持仓量 2303 ...

鲍威尔：最终，我们认为利率处于不错的状态。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The decline in mortgage rates has led to an increase in mortgage applications in the U.S., marking the first growth in four weeks [1] Group 1: Mortgage Application Trends - The purchase application index surged by 11.1%, the largest increase since January of this year [1] - The refinancing index also experienced a similar rate of growth [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Movements - As of the week ending May 2, the 30-year mortgage contract rate decreased by 5 basis points to 6.84% [1] - The five-year adjustable mortgage rate increased but remains below mid-April levels [1] Group 3: Market Influences - Mortgage rates are following the trend of U.S. Treasury yields, which have mostly declined over the past week [1] - Investors are awaiting comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding the officials' stance on interest rates [1]