6 月 17 日，日本央行宣布维持 0.5% 的目标利率不变，连续第三次货币政策会议按兵不动，符合市场预期。该行以 8 比 1 的投票结果决定，将现有债券缩减 计划延续至 2026 年 3 月，自 2026 年 4 月起每季度每月减少约 2000 亿日元国债购买量，直至 2027 年 1-3 月将月度购买规模降至约 2 万亿日元。 一、日本央行维持宽松基调，逐步推进国债购买缩减计划 政策声明指出，日本经济整体呈温和复苏态势，出口和工业生产持平，设备投资因企业利润改善而温和增长，私人消费在就业环境改善下维持韧性，但住宅 投资疲软。物价方面，核心 CPI 同比涨幅约 3.5%，主要受薪资上涨传导及食品价格（如大米）影响，但随着进口价格和食品涨价因素减弱，核心通胀预计 加拿大皇家银行（RBC）指出，伊以冲突可能通过三大路径拖累美股： 短期低迷，中长期随经济回升逐步向价格稳定目标靠拢。日本央行强调，将以可预测方式削减国债购买，同时保留灵活性以维护市场稳定，若长期利率快速 上升，将通过增加购买或固定利率操作应对。 二、美联储按兵不动预期升温，政策滞后担忧隐现 市场普遍预计美联储在周四凌晨的会议中将维持利率不变，CME ...

Group 1 - Retail sales in the U.S. fell by 0.9% month-on-month in May, marking the largest decline of the year and the second consecutive drop since April [1] - The decline in retail sales was primarily driven by the automotive sector, indicating that consumers are cutting back on spending due to concerns over tariff policies and personal financial situations [1] - Out of 13 categories covered in the report, 7 experienced a decline in sales, particularly in building materials, gasoline, and motor vehicle sales, which had previously seen a surge due to pre-tariff stockpiling [1] Group 2 - Consumer spending in restaurants and bars faced its largest drop since the beginning of 2023, reflecting reduced confidence among consumers [1] - The confidence of U.S. home builders unexpectedly fell to a two-and-a-half-year low in June, with the housing market index dropping from 34 to 32, indicating high inventory levels and potential buyers waiting for more reasonable prices [1] - The New York Fed reported that manufacturing activity in the state unexpectedly contracted in June, with the overall business conditions index declining nearly 7 points to -16, remaining in contraction for the fourth consecutive month [1]

Group 1 - U.S. retail sales declined for the second consecutive month in May, indicating a reduction in consumer spending due to concerns over tariffs and personal finances [1][2] - Retail sales fell by 0.9% month-over-month, marking the largest drop of the year, with significant declines in auto sales [1][2] - Seven out of thirteen retail categories experienced declines, with building materials, gasoline, and motor vehicle sales leading the downturn [2] Group 2 - The only service sector category in the retail report, restaurant and bar spending, saw the largest drop since the beginning of 2023 [2] - Despite a recent trade agreement between the U.S. and China, concerns over potential increases in auto tariffs persist, leading consumers to cut back on spending [3] - The "control group" sales, which exclude certain categories, increased by 0.4% month-over-month, driven by sales in sporting goods, furniture, and clothing [3]

智通财经APP获悉，一项对经济学家的最新调查显示，美联储还需要数月时间才能清楚了解特朗普政府 政策变动将如何影响美国经济，因此政策制定者在九月之前不太可能考虑调整利率。 这项在6月6日至11日进行的调查显示，超过90%的受访经济学家表示，美联储至少要到九月才可能获得 足够的清晰度，以判断特朗普政府贸易、移民和财政支出政策对经济的影响。略多于一半的受访经济学 家认为，这种清晰度要等到第四季度，甚至有些人认为要等到今年之后才会显现。 大多数受访经济学家表示，通胀率和失业率都有走高的风险。一半受访者认为，特朗普政府的政策对通 胀和就业构成了同样的威胁。对于哪一方面临更高的风险，其余多数经济学家意见不一。 对于美联储降息前景，预测中值显示，受访经济学家继续预测9月和12月将分别降息25个基点。 不过，特朗普政府关税政策的预期影响尚未显现出来。美国5月CPI低于预期，失业率则稳定在4.2%。 尽管如此，美国企业已表示愿意将部分关税成本转嫁给消费者。同时，也有证据表明，外国劳动力大幅 减少可能正在导致劳动力市场收紧，从而有助于抑制失业率的上升。 市场目前普遍预计，美联储将在下周的政策会议上连续第四次按兵不动。政策制定者们 ...

金十数据整理：每日全球外汇市场要闻速递（6月13日） 1. 欧洲央行执委施纳贝尔表示，随着通胀在欧洲央行目标附近企稳，（宽松）货币政策周期"即将结 束"。 2. 秘鲁央行将基准利率维持在4.50%。 3. 日本央行预计通胀将高于预期，但下周将维持利率不变。日本央行在贸易局势明朗后，有望考虑加 息。 4. 欧洲央行副行长金多斯：欧洲央行的关注重点已从通胀转向经济增长放缓。 5. 欧洲央行管委穆勒：通胀率近期可能维持在2%左右。 美元： 非美主要货币： 其他： 1. 秘鲁央行将基准利率维持在4.50%。 2. 乌兹别克斯坦央行宣布维持政策利率不变，仍为14.0%。 3. 中欧央行行长首次年度会晤，双方签署合作谅解备忘录。 1. 高盛：将美国12个月经济衰退的概率从35%下调至30%。 2. 美国国会预算办公室：税收法案使富人更富 穷人更穷。 3. 特朗普：不会解雇鲍威尔，鲍威尔只需将利率降低即可，建议美联储降息200个基点。 4. 安联：将美联储降息预期从10月推迟到12月。 ...

高盛将美国12个月内经济衰退的概率预期从35%下调至30%。 ...

高盛：将美国12个月经济衰退的概率从35%下调至30%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has significantly increased its loan loss reserves, indicating a preparation for potential economic deterioration, contrasting with market expectations of a slight decrease in provisions [1][2]. Group 1: Loan Loss Reserves - Citigroup's credit costs are expected to rise by hundreds of millions compared to the previous quarter, driven by an increase in credit reserves [1]. - The total loan loss provisions for the first quarter were $2.72 billion, with analysts predicting a slight decrease to $2.69 billion for the second quarter [1]. - The bank's internal assessment appears more pessimistic than market sentiment, suggesting a proactive stance against potential economic challenges [1]. Group 2: Credit Risk and Corporate Exposure - Approximately 80% of Citigroup's corporate exposure is to high-rated issuers, with an even higher percentage outside the U.S. [2]. - Despite the increase in provisions, Citigroup's executives express confidence in the overall credit quality of their corporate client portfolio [1][2]. Group 3: Performance Expectations in Different Business Lines - Citigroup's trading divisions for equities and fixed income are expected to show strong performance, with projected year-over-year revenue growth in the mid-to-high single digits for the second quarter [4]. - Investment banking fees are anticipated to grow at a moderate single-digit rate, although this sector faces "further uncertainty" [4][5]. Group 4: Broader Economic Concerns - The cautious approach of Citigroup reflects wider macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly regarding the impact of U.S. trade policies and tax legislation [6]. - Other major Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, are also issuing warnings about the economic outlook, indicating a collective concern among financial institutions [7][8]. Group 5: Sentiments from Industry Leaders - Goldman Sachs emphasizes the urgency of addressing the growing deficit, labeling it unsustainable [8]. - JPMorgan's CEO has criticized previous government spending and monetary policies as potentially leading to a bond market crisis [8]. - BlackRock's CEO has expressed a belief that the economy may already be in a recession, highlighting the need for investors to reassess optimistic market perceptions [9].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing significant volatility due to trade negotiations, geopolitical situations, and macroeconomic policies, with gold and silver prices showing divergent trends [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices are facing resistance at previous highs, while silver prices have reached a 13-year high, driven by industrial demand and geopolitical factors [1]. - The recent U.S. economic indicators, including a contraction in manufacturing and services PMI, alongside slowing non-farm employment data, have heightened concerns about inflation and recession [1][2]. - The European Central Bank's monetary easing has led to a recovery in manufacturing, boosting industrial demand for metals [1]. Group 2: Investment Sentiment - The market is currently focused on three main aspects: U.S. government trade conflict stance, Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, and geopolitical tensions, all of which influence gold prices [2]. - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month, although the pace of accumulation has slowed [2]. Group 3: Price Predictions and Strategies - The gold-silver ratio has increased due to rising gold prices, leading to a shift in investment towards silver, which is expected to see strong upward momentum due to industrial demand [3]. - Predictions indicate that silver industrial demand could reach a historical high of 680.5 million ounces in 2024, with stable demand expected in 2025 [3]. - Analysts suggest maintaining a long-term trading strategy for precious metals, advising investors to buy on price dips and utilize derivatives for risk hedging [3][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of precious metals is expected to be volatile and bullish, with a high - level oscillation in the medium - term and a step - up movement in the long - term. The price trend of gold serves as an anchor for the price of silver. [1][5] - For both gold and silver, the recommended strategy is for conservative investors to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is advised to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, the precious metals market showed a pattern of weak gold and strong silver. The main contract of Shanghai Gold Futures closed down 0.03%, while the main contract of Shanghai Silver Futures closed up 0.62%. [1] - **Core Logic**: In the short term, there are still risks of repeated Trump - era trade wars, economic recession, and geopolitical fluctuations. The risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, and the Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts. [1] - **Attributes Analysis** - **Safe - haven Attribute**: A phone call between Chinese and US leaders is expected to focus on rare earths and export controls in Sino - US trade talks. [1] - **Monetary Attribute**: The New York Fed's consumer expectations survey shows that in May, US public anxiety about the future inflation path eased. The one - year inflation expectation of respondents was 3.2% (down from 3.6% in April). The US added 139,000 non - farm payrolls in May, higher than the market expectation of 130,000. Employment growth continued to slow under the influence of trade policy uncertainties, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% for the third consecutive month. The market currently expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total rate - cut space in 2025 has dropped to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating weakly. [1] - **Commodity Attribute**: The rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. [1] - **Data Summary**: Various data such as international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, positions, inventories, CFTC managed fund net positions, and gold ETFs are presented, showing different changes compared to the previous day and the previous week. For example, the Comex gold main contract closed at $3346.70 per ounce, up $15.70 (0.47%) from the previous day and down $59.70 (-1.75%) from the previous week. [2] Silver - **Influencing Factors**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have increased their positions again. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has increased slightly. [5] - **Data Summary**: Similar to gold, data on international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, positions, inventories, CFTC managed fund net positions, and silver ETFs are provided. For instance, the Comex silver main contract closed at $36.91 per ounce, up $0.77 (2.15%) from the previous day and up $1.98 (5.65%) from the previous week. [6] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) are all 4.50%, 4.50%, and 4.40% respectively, with a decrease of 0.25 percentage points compared to the previous value. The Fed's total assets are $6723.632 billion, down $514 million (-0.00%) from the previous day. [8] - **Other Economic Indicators**: Include M2 growth rate, ten - year US Treasury real yield, US dollar index, US Treasury yield spreads, inflation indicators (CPI, PCE), economic growth indicators (GDP), unemployment rate, employment data, real estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, trade data, and central bank gold reserves. For example, the CPI (year - on - year) is 2.30%, down 0.10 percentage points; the GDP (annualized year - on - year) is 2.00%, down 0.90 percentage points. [9][10][12] - **Fed Interest Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest rate ranges at various Fed meetings from June 2025 to December 2026 is presented. For example, at the June 18, 2025 meeting, the probability of the federal funds rate being in the 425 - 450 range is 99.9%. [13]