【冠通期货研究报告】 软商品日报：溢价回落，注意支撑 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 26 日 棉花：国际棉市缺乏明显利好因素指引，在美联储降息预期弱化，地缘局势 持续变化，以及外围谷物市场走低拖累下，棉价连续回落。上周国内外棉纱价格 均小幅上涨，负值价差继续扩大。替代原料价格小幅涨跌。现货市场基差报价小 幅回升，市场成交价格基本平稳。棉企库存较为充裕，积极报价促销，纺企逢下 跌点价增加，上涨过程中成交有所减少，年前补库进入最后阶段，局部成交略增。 下方空间相对有限，短期偏调整看待为主。 白糖：国际糖市多空力量进入短暂均衡状态。一方面，当前国际糖价仍显著 低于印度出口成本，该国增产压力向国际市场的传导效应相对有限；叠加巴西乙 醇折糖溢价突破 2 美分/磅，原糖远期供需结构得到边际改善，对期价形成支撑； 另一方面，全球食糖增产预期主导的供应压制仍在持续，原糖期价上行动能不足， 冲击 15 美分/磅关键压力位未果，最终整体维持区间震荡走势。 本报告发布机构 --冠通期货股份有限公司（已获中国证监会许可的期货交易咨询业务资格） 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任 经测 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests that under the current circumstances, the performance of Hong Kong stocks may continue to outperform that of US stocks, showing an oscillatory upward trend. The main reasons are that the weakening of the US dollar's credit is naturally beneficial to non - US assets, and Hong Kong stocks, mainly composed of Chinese assets, are expected to benefit; additionally, Hong Kong stocks have a long - term low valuation level and better elasticity, and the improvement of domestic demand may become a new investment theme, attracting more incremental capital [3][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Investment Views 3.1.1 Market Summary - Last week, the Hang Seng Index returned to an oscillatory market, with a slight decline of 0.36% at the weekend close. The raw materials sector performed well, with a weekly increase of 4.1% and a year - to - date increase of 17.82%, leading all primary industry sectors in Hong Kong stocks. Among secondary sectors, durable consumer goods rebounded with a weekly increase of 19.7%, followed by the steel and non - ferrous sectors with increases of 6.6% and 5.8% respectively. Sectors such as pharmaceuticals and software sales were relatively weak. The overall risk appetite of the Hong Kong stock market remained stable, with market hotspots concentrated in commodities and raw materials sectors such as non - ferrous metals and energy, while high - valuation sectors oscillated. In terms of funds, the share of the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong increased by 1.74%, the share of the ETFs that short the Hang Seng Index and the Technology Index by double fell by 5.15%, and the net inflow of Southbound Stock Connect funds was HK$23.523 billion, indicating a recovery in the scale of inflow funds [1][6]. 3.1.2 Market Environment - Last week, silver continued to outperform all major asset classes, with a year - to - date increase of 46%, significantly outperforming global equity assets. The Brazilian and Latin American markets performed well due to the upward cycle of global commodities, outperforming other regional equity assets year - to - date. The Hang Seng Index underperformed the A - share market again last week, and recently, the Hong Kong and US stock markets showed similar oscillatory trends, indicating a lack of short - term catalysts for the upward movement of stock indices under the backdrop of the Fed's suspension of interest rate cuts. The US released its latest economic data, with the final annualized quarter - on - quarter GDP growth rate in Q3 2025 reaching 4.4%, higher than the initial value of 4.3% and the fastest growth rate in nearly two years. The core PCE price index in November increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations, showing that the US economy is running smoothly and the possibility of accelerated inflation is low. In China, the National Bureau of Statistics released the latest economic data, showing that the GDP growth rate in 2025 was 5%, with a Q4 growth rate of 4.5% and a Q3 growth rate of 4.8%. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries in December was 5.2%, and the cumulative growth rate for the whole year was 5.9%. The year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in December was 0.9%, and the cumulative growth rate for the year was 3.7%. In 2025, China's economy showed a strong transformation of new and old driving forces, with economic growth concentrated in high - end manufacturing such as chips and industrial robots, and the growth rate of consumption slowed down after the subsidy withdrawal in the second half of the year. The growth rate of fixed - asset investment continued to decline, indicating the continuous impact of the real - estate market adjustment [7][8]. 3.1.3 Views on Hong Kong Stocks - Hong Kong stocks have shown an obvious structural market since January this year, with significant market differentiation. The raw materials industry represented by non - ferrous metals has performed strongly, with a year - to - date increase of over 17%, and its price - to - earnings ratio is gradually approaching that of the medical industry, which has the highest price - to - earnings ratio in Hong Kong stocks. On the other hand, the technology sector mainly composed of Internet platforms has performed weakly, underperforming the Hang Seng Index since the beginning of the year, similar to traditional defensive sectors such as the consumer staples, financial, and telecommunications industries. This situation is also similar in the US stock market recently, where the energy and materials sectors have far outperformed other sectors, while the technology sector has been weak overall, and upstream cyclical industries have performed relatively better. This may be affected by the current global macro - environment, including the strong resilience of the US economy, high inflation stickiness, low market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts before the change of the Fed chairman, the weakening of the US dollar's credit due to the debt cliff and geopolitical disturbances, and the upward transmission of the focus of the AI industry to the upstream. In the short term, the low expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts and the weakening of the US dollar's credit have become the trading mainlines in overseas markets, which resonate with the Hong Kong stock market that has an AI industry chain and is sensitive to overseas liquidity. The report believes that Hong Kong stocks may continue to outperform US stocks and show an oscillatory upward trend. In the medium - to - long - term, the Hong Kong stock market still has good capital - side resilience, and the trend of expansion and allocation dominated by mainland funds is still strong [9][10]. 3.2 Market Review 3.2.1 Performance of Stock Index Futures - The report provides the closing prices, weekly changes, trading volumes, open interests, changes in open interests, basis, and changes in basis compared to the previous week of various stock index futures last week, including the Hang Seng Index Futures 2601, H - share Index Futures 2601, Hang Seng Technology Index Futures 2601, Dow Jones Mini Futures, S&P 500 Mini Futures, and NASDAQ 100 Mini Futures [13]. 3.2.2 Market Performance - The report presents the closing prices, weekly changes, year - to - date changes, weekly trading volumes, and price - to - earnings ratios of major Hong Kong and US stock indices last week, such as the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Hang Seng Technology Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, NASDAQ Index, and NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index. It also shows the price changes of various industry sectors in Hong Kong stocks last week, including the raw materials, energy, and other industries, as well as the top five and bottom five sectors in terms of price changes in the WIND secondary sectors of Hong Kong stocks. Additionally, it provides information on the trading of relatively active ETFs in Hong Kong stocks, such as the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong and the Southern Hang Seng Technology ETF, including their closing prices, weekly changes, year - to - date changes relative to the Hang Seng Index, returns in the past six months, fund shares, changes in fund shares compared to the previous week, weekly trading volumes, net asset values per share, fund sizes, and changes in net asset values. For the US stock market, it shows the price changes of various industry sectors and ETFs [15][16][17][18]. 3.3 Market External Environment Tracking 3.3.1 Update of Domestic Macroeconomic Data - The report updates domestic and US macroeconomic data, including GDP, industrial added value, social retail sales, inflation, social financing scale, and other indicators in China, as well as GDP, industrial production, consumption, employment, inflation, and other indicators in the US [28][29]. 3.3.2 Latest Central Bank Movements - Rick Rieder, an executive at BlackRock, has seen his winning probability in the competition for the Fed chairmanship soar from 6% to 49% and take the lead. The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.75% and raised its economic growth and inflation expectations for the fiscal year 2026. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda said that he would closely monitor the impact of the weakening yen, and if long - term bond yields rise abnormally, the bank will buy government bonds to stabilize the market. People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng stated that in 2026, China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, flexibly and efficiently use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain sufficient liquidity. There is still some room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [30]. 3.3.3 Some Important Domestic and International News - In 2025, China's GDP increased by 5% year - on - year, reaching RMB140.19 trillion. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries was 5.9%, and the added value of the service industry increased by 5.4%, accounting for 57.7% of GDP. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 52%. Fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, with real - estate development investment falling by 17.2%. The housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities in December showed an overall decline in the month - on - month and an expansion of the year - on - year decline. In the US, the final annualized quarter - on - quarter GDP growth rate in Q3 2025 was 4.4%, and the core PCE price index in November increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The number of initial jobless claims last week was 200,000, lower than the expected 210,000. US President Trump reached an agreement framework on Greenland with NATO Secretary - General Rutte and will not implement the originally planned tariffs on February 1. Japan's trade deficit in 2025 was 2.65 trillion yen, with exports increasing by 3.1% to a record - high of 110.45 trillion yen, and exports to the US decreasing by 4.1% for the first time in five years [32]. 3.3.4 This Week's Focus - The Fed's interest - rate meeting is the focus of this week [32].

周一，美国10年期国债收益率跌至约4.22%，创下一周新低。走势主要源于美联储即将公布政策决议的市场预期，投资者提前 调整仓位，市场普遍认为美联储将维持现有利率水平不变。 投资者还将进一步消化美国近期密集发布的多项经济数据，包括耐用品订单、生产者价格指数、进出口贸易数据及房价指标。 其中，耐用品订单反映制造业活动及未来生产趋势，生产者价格指数关联通胀水平，这些数据为投资者判断经济走势、调整策 略提供参考，同时间接影响国债市场。 贸易紧张局势的持续升温，也加剧了全球市场的不确定性。相关方面发出警告，若加拿大与中国达成交易协议，可能会面临相 关关税惩罚。这种贸易层面的不确定性，使得市场避险情绪有所上升，部分资金流向国债等相对稳健的资产，也对国债收益率 的走低起到了一定的推动作用。 市场核心关注点之一是美联储即将释放的政策信号，尤其是降息时机。目前市场预期，今年晚些时候美联储可能实施两次25个 基点的降息。这一预期直接影响国债市场资金流向，也是近期收益率波动的重要诱因，美联储利率政策始终是全球债券市场的 关键影响因素。 除了美联储政策决议，美联储主席人选的变动也成为市场关注的焦点。据悉，相关方面预计将宣布接替现任美 ...

把"浙江之声"，更容易找到我们 来源：21世纪经济报道 版权归原作者所有，如有侵权请及时联系 2026年伊始，全球金融市场见证了一项历史性纪录的诞生。1月26日，现货黄金价格冲高，首次突破5000美元/盎司的关键心理整数关口。 当前市场对美联储的降息预期依旧强劲。高盛曾预计，受美国就业市场持续恶化、失业率上升、薪资增速放缓及企业对经济前景悲观等因素影响，美联储 2026年降息幅度可能超过市场普遍预期，经济所需宽松力度高于当前定价。 现货白银盘初再创新高，现报103.85美元/盎司。 对于本轮黄金价格的大幅上涨，独立财经评论员赵欢分析，各国央行的战略性资产配置需求是本轮黄金上涨的核心支撑。此外，美联储处在降息周期，意 味着持有美元资产的吸引力下降，而黄金作为"无利息资产"的机会成本变低。 事实上，当前全球央行正在掀起新一轮购金热潮。中国人民银行官方储备资产数据显示，截至2025年12月末，我国黄金储备为7415万盎司，当月增持3万 盎司。值得注意的是，这已是央行自2024年11月以来，连续第14个月增持黄金。这一趋势也为市场注入了长期信心。 | < W | 伦敦金现 | | | | Q | | --- | -- ...

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a significant rise in resource and energy leading stocks, with Zijin Mining and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) reaching historical highs, both surpassing a market capitalization of 1 trillion yuan [1] - Major companies such as Shandong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, China Uranium Industry, and Weichai Power also experienced notable increases, indicating strong performance in the precious metals and oil and gas sectors [1] - The spot gold price broke the $5,000 per ounce mark for the first time on January 26, setting a new historical record [1] Group 2 - Experts indicated that the surge in gold prices is driven by multiple factors, including central bank gold purchases, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical risks, and trends towards de-dollarization [1] - Continuous gold buying by central banks is highlighted as a crucial fundamental factor supporting gold prices [1] - On January 25, U.S. natural gas futures prices exceeded $6 per million British thermal units, reaching the highest level since 2022, influenced by energy supply tightness due to a winter storm [1]

摘要1月23日，COMEX黄金库存录得1124.21吨，较上一交易日持平；COMEX黄金周五（1月23日）收 4982.20美元/盎司，上涨1.25%，comex黄金价格日内最高上探至4991.40美元/盎司，最低触及4901.20美 元/盎司。 美国2025年三季度GDP上修、通胀温和上涨，失业人数低于预期，凸显经济韧性。地缘方面，特朗普试 图吞并格陵兰岛并对多个欧洲国家加征高额关税以及突然的转折，避险情绪冲高回落，通胀上升压力、 贸易格局重塑以及信用货币根基动摇在所难免。 1月23日，COMEX黄金库存录得1124.21吨，较上一交易日持平；COMEX黄金周五（1月23日）收 4982.20美元/盎司，上涨1.25%，comex黄金价格日内最高上探至4991.40美元/盎司，最低触及4901.20美 元/盎司。 美联储降息预期不强、通胀预期回升、美国经济增长向好削弱贵金属的金融属性，欧美贸易战担忧略有 消退，但仍有逢低买盘支撑，美欧协议细节不排除会有新变数；中期来看美国制造业疲软、全球政策不 确定性挑战经济增长前景、美联储降息大趋势、去美元化趋势等令美元承压，驱动贵金属上涨。 最新comex黄金库存数据： ...

【1月26日大摩报告：黄金价格超预期且未到顶，目标5700美元/盎司】1月26日，大摩发布报告称，黄 金价格已超过该行对下半年4750美元/盎司的预测，且认为金价还未到顶。其上涨主要受地缘政治风 险、央行积极信号及ETF买盘支撑。 大摩指出，波兰央行以绝对吨位数为黄金储备目标，降低价格敏 感度；美联储今年降息预期将支持贵金属ETF买盘，上海白银现货价飙升或使供应紧缩延续。 当下， 看涨黄金情境不断发酵，美元指数走弱、实物需求稳健、地缘政治风险高。大摩强调2026年下半年牛市 情境目标为5700美元/盎司。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant surge in resource and energy stocks in the A-share market, with companies like Zijin Mining and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) reaching historical highs in stock prices and market capitalization exceeding 1 trillion yuan [1] - The spot gold price has surpassed $5,000 per ounce for the first time, reaching $5,075.06 per ounce, driven by multiple factors including central bank gold purchases, expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and trends towards de-dollarization [1][2] - Central banks globally, including those in China, India, Turkey, and Poland, are accelerating their gold reserves, with China's gold reserves reaching 74.15 million ounces as of December 2025, marking 14 consecutive months of increases [1][2] Group 2 - The World Gold Council reported that as of November 2025, the total official gold reserves of the U.S. exceeded 900 million troy ounces, valued at $3.93 trillion, surpassing U.S. Treasury bonds as the largest reserve asset for the first time in 30 years [2] - Goldman Sachs predicts that global central banks will net purchase approximately 60 tons of gold monthly in 2026, potentially leading to a record annual gold buying volume [2] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to three long-term structural factors: ongoing large-scale gold purchases by central banks, expectations of monetary easing in major economies, and increased demand for gold from the private sector for hedging and asset allocation [2] Group 3 - Zijin Mining has forecasted a net profit of 51 to 52 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 59% to 62%, driven by increased production and rising sales prices of gold, copper, and silver [3] - The oil and gas sector also showed strong performance, with companies like Tongyuan Petroleum and CNOOC experiencing significant stock price increases due to tight energy supply caused by a winter storm in the U.S., which pushed natural gas futures above $6 per million British thermal units [3] - The rising stock prices of resource sector leaders reflect both the transmission effect of international market price changes and investor recognition of their long-term resource endowment, operational efficiency, and sustainable development capabilities [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of various stock indices in China, highlighting the shift in market dynamics between large-cap and micro-cap stocks, as well as the strong performance of the precious metals sector driven by rising gold and silver prices [2][4][9]. Market Performance - Last week, the micro-cap stock index reached a historical high, while large-cap indices like the CSI 300 and SSE 50 experienced adjustments. However, there was a reversal today with large-cap stocks gaining strength, as the SSE 50 index rose over 1.8% at its peak [2]. - As of the morning close, the SSE Composite Index increased by 0.12%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.74% and 0.86%, respectively. The total market turnover exceeded 2.26 trillion yuan [4]. Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector showed strong performance, with significant gains in gold and silver prices. Notable stocks such as Hunan Gold and Zhaojin Mining reached their daily limit up, while leading companies like Zijin Mining and China Uranium also saw substantial increases [6][9]. - Gold prices surged past $5,000 per ounce, marking a new historical high, which is attributed to geopolitical factors and fluctuations in confidence towards U.S. assets, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [8][10]. Earnings Forecasts - Several precious metals companies have announced optimistic earnings forecasts for 2025. Zijin Mining expects a net profit of 51 to 52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59% to 62%. Chifeng Jilong Gold anticipates a net profit of 3 to 3.2 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 70% to 81% [9]. - The overall outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector is driven by three main catalysts: recovery in manufacturing and inventory replenishment, long-term demand reshaping due to green and technological trends, and favorable liquidity expectations enhancing the financial attributes of precious metals [10]. Financial Sector Activity - The financial sector was active, with the insurance sector leading gains. Major insurance companies collectively saw increases, with New China Life Insurance rising over 4% [12]. - The insurance industry is expected to face short-term challenges but may benefit from a rebound in the equity market in early 2026, driven by improved asset performance and a potential stabilization of long-term interest rates [14].

地缘冲突的持续升级为金价上涨提供短期催化。中东冲突升级当日，金价单日涨幅突破1.5%，带动上 海金ETF在8天内净流入4亿元资金。不同于2008年金融危机期间散户恐慌性抛售黄金换取流动性，当前 散户转而与机构同步增持黄金，今年黄金投资产品的资金净流入规模已达去年同期三倍。 黄金在过去五个月内累计涨幅突破50%，市场对行情主导力量的讨论持续升温，各国央行的大规模购金 计划与散户投资者的配置热情，成为核心争论焦点。 波兰央行1月20日发布公告，宣布将增持150吨黄金，使其储备总量提升至700吨。这一动作并非个例， 近年来全球央行年度购金量持续维持在千吨级别，机构的长期配置行为形成价格托底效应。中国央行已 连续15个月增持黄金，截至2026年1月储备规模较2024年10月提升12%，增加超800万盎司。数据显示， 当前全球央行持有的黄金市值已达3.93万亿美元，超过其持有的美国国债规模，反映出各国在去美元化 趋势下对资产安全边界的重视。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 本文源自：市场资讯 作者：观察君 通胀预期与政策转向预期成为金价上涨的深层支撑。美联储降息预期 ...