Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The US ADP and ISM non - manufacturing data were worse than expected, leading to a weaker US dollar index and an overall increase in global risk appetite. China's May PMI data improved, and the economy continued to expand, boosting domestic risk appetite. Short - term, the stock index may fluctuate, and it's advisable to be cautious and go long; the treasury bond may oscillate at a high level, and it's better to observe carefully. For commodities, black may rebound from a low level, and it's advisable to observe carefully; non - ferrous metals may oscillate and rebound, and it's advisable to be cautious and go long; energy and chemicals may oscillate and rebound, and it's advisable to observe carefully; precious metals may be strong at a high level, and it's advisable to be cautious and go long [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: US May ADP employment was 37,000, far lower than the expected 110,000 and the previous 62,000. The May ISM non - manufacturing index dropped to 49.9, shrinking for the first time in nearly a year. The US dollar index weakened due to these factors and the president's call for a rate cut, and global risk appetite increased. Domestic: China's May PMI data improved, the economy expanded, and short - term domestic risk appetite was boosted. Although the US tightened restrictions on China's semiconductor and aircraft engine sectors, the expected call between Chinese and US leaders this week also lifted domestic risk appetite [2]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as beauty care, clothing and home textiles, and metal new materials, the domestic stock market continued to rise slightly. China's May PMI data improvement and the expected call between Chinese and US leaders boosted domestic risk appetite. The market focused on US trade policies and negotiations. Short - term, it's advisable to be cautious and go long [3]. Precious Metals - Supported by a weaker US dollar and weak US data, precious metals rose slightly on Wednesday. COMEX gold August contract reached $3397 per ounce. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.9, the lowest since June 2024. ADP data showed the fewest private - sector job increases in over two years. The labor market showed signs of cooling. Precious metals are expected to be strong in the short - term and have a solid long - term upward trend. It's advisable to focus on the employment report on Friday [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel spot and futures markets rebounded on Wednesday. The rebound of coking coal and coke prices improved market sentiment. The actual demand was okay, with inventory decreasing but apparent consumption slightly falling. The supply side saw a slight increase in hot - rolled coil production and a slight decrease in building materials production. Steel may oscillate in the short - term [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore spot and futures prices rebounded slightly on Wednesday. The iron - making molten iron output declined for three consecutive weeks, but the high profitability of steel mills led to different views on the decline path. The global iron ore shipment and arrival volumes increased this week. The delay of FMG's iron bridge project should be noted. Iron ore may oscillate in the short - term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat on Wednesday. The demand for ferroalloys decreased slightly. The production of silicon manganese increased slightly. The prices of raw materials were weak, and the market transaction was average. Silicon iron and silicon manganese may oscillate in the short - term [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Saudi Arabia intends to increase production by at least 411,000 barrels per day in August or September, and the improvement of the Canadian wildfire situation led to a slight decline in oil prices [7]. - **Asphalt**: With the decline of oil prices, asphalt oscillated narrowly. Demand recovered to a limited extent. The basis of major consumption areas decreased, and the inventory destocking stagnated. Asphalt will follow crude oil to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [7]. - **PX**: The PX price remained high, and PXN was around 270. Short - term maintenance was relatively high, and with the support of crude oil, PX will oscillate strongly. However, the reduction of PTA long - term contracts and the lack of gasoline - blending demand may lead to a slight decline in PX demand later [7]. - **PTA**: The PTA basis remained at +200, and the 9 - 1 structure was around 140. The downstream was in a cash - flow deficit, with weak new orders. PTA may oscillate weakly later [8][9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by the rebound of black metals, ethylene glycol recovered. Although there is some support at 4300, the supply recovery of synthetic - gas - made ethylene glycol is certain, and the probability of a sharp rise is low. It may form a bottom, and short - term trading can be observed [9]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber oscillated weakly. Terminal orders recovered slowly, and the downstream may reduce production. Short - fiber may continue to oscillate in the short - term [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The possible call between Chinese and US leaders boosted market sentiment. The copper ore supply was relatively tight, while the production of electrolytic copper was high. The demand may decline as the peak season ended. Copper may oscillate in the short - term [10]. - **Aluminum**: Affected by the overall commodity market, aluminum prices rose. There is no clear market logic currently, and aluminum may oscillate in the short - term. Later, attention should be paid to the change in social inventory and the high - tariff risk [10]. - **Tin**: Affected by the slow possible resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State, tin prices rose. The domestic tin ore supply was tight, and the demand was mixed. Tin may stabilize in the short - term, but the high - tariff risk may put pressure on prices [11]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Supported by a weaker US dollar, CBOT soybeans and grains may maintain a range - bound market. The US soybean sowing progress was 84%, and the weather was stable, lacking continuous weather premium [12]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of soybean and soybean meal in oil mills may continue to recover, and soybean meal lacks a stable upward driver. The supply of rapeseed meal is uncertain, and the port inventory may decline. The market's expectation of trade tension decreased. The premium of soybean and rapeseed meal may decline if the USDA report strengthens the expectation of a US soybean bumper harvest [12][13]. - **Palm Oil**: The BMD Malaysian palm oil futures fell 0.58%. Malaysia's production and inventory are expected to increase, and the external market is weak. Indonesia's 2024/2025 palm oil production is estimated to be 48.8 million tons, and Malaysia's is estimated to be 19 million tons [13]. - **Live Pigs**: After the holiday, the supply and demand of live pigs were both weak. Pig prices may continue to decline, but there may be a short - term price increase due to the narrowing of the basis [14]. - **Corn**: The northeast corn产区 had a strong intention to support prices, and the north - south port corn inventory may continue to decline. The substitution of wheat for corn in feed may not affect the overall trend. The corn futures market was inactive, and there is no upward impetus currently [14].

Key Points Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Index futures: Long on dips [1] - Treasury bonds: Range-bound [1] - Gold and silver: Bullish with dips for buying or selling out-of-the-money put options [1] - Non-ferrous metals (copper): Range-bound [4] - Non-ferrous metals (aluminum and alumina): Range-bound for alumina, bearish for aluminum [4] - Non-ferrous metals (nickel): Range-bound, option strategies preferred [4] - Lithium carbonate: Bearish [4] - Silicon energy: Bearish [6] - Steel and ore: Bearish for rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore [6] - Coking coal and coke: Bearish [8] - Soda ash and glass: Bearish [8] - Crude oil: Bearish with an eye on geopolitical resistance [8] - Methanol: Bearish [10] - Polyolefins: Bearish [10] - Cotton: Range-bound [10] - Rubber: Bearish [10] 2. Core Views - The A-share market is building a long-term investment environment, with limited downside risk and increasing allocation value, but short-term fundamentals and policies lack significant positives [1] - The bond market remains cautious due to uncertain domestic economic expectations and a lack of new positives [1] - Gold prices are bullish in the long term, with short-term fluctuations driven by risk aversion [1] - Non-ferrous metal prices are affected by US tariffs and policy uncertainties, with supply constraints and cautious demand [4] - The lithium carbonate market has a clear supply surplus and weak demand, with prices likely to remain low [4] - The silicon energy market has weak demand and potential inventory accumulation, with prices expected to be low [6] - The steel and ore market has poor demand expectations and slow supply reduction, with prices under pressure [6] - The coking coal and coke market has a supply surplus and weak demand, with prices likely to decline [8] - The soda ash and glass market has increasing supply and weak demand, with prices remaining bearish [8] - Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical risks and OPEC+ production increases, with short-term focus on resistance [8] - Methanol prices are under pressure due to increasing supply and weak demand, despite potential port restrictions [10] - Polyolefin prices are likely to decline due to new capacity and weakening demand [10] - Cotton prices are range-bound, with attention on weather and macro changes [10] - Rubber prices are bearish due to increasing supply and weak demand [10] 3. Summary by Category Index Futures - Monday's A-share market opened low and closed high, with low trading volume and sector rotation [1] - Tariff policy uncertainties suppress market sentiment, but policy support and long-term investment environment construction limit downside risk [1] - Strategy: Long on dips [1] Treasury Bonds - Yesterday's bond futures were range-bound, with most contracts slightly down and some slightly up [1] - May's Caixin PMI was average, and the market remains cautious due to uncertain domestic economic expectations and a lack of new positives [1] - Strategy: Range-bound trading [1] Precious Metals - Gold prices are bullish in the long term, with short-term fluctuations driven by risk aversion [1] - Silver follows gold, with a high gold-silver ratio [1] - Strategy: Buy on dips or sell out-of-the-money put options [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper prices are affected by US tariffs and policy uncertainties, with supply constraints and cautious demand [4] - Aluminum and alumina prices are affected by US tariffs and supply uncertainties, with prices expected to be low [4] - Nickel prices are range-bound, with weak fundamentals and policy uncertainties [4] - Strategy: Range-bound trading or option strategies [4] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market has a clear supply surplus and weak demand, with prices likely to remain low [4] - Strategy: Bearish trading [4] Silicon Energy - The silicon energy market has weak demand and potential inventory accumulation, with prices expected to be low [6] - Strategy: Bearish trading [6] Steel and Ore - Rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore prices are under pressure due to poor demand expectations and slow supply reduction [6] - Strategy: Bearish trading or option strategies [6] Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke market has a supply surplus and weak demand, with prices likely to decline [8] - Strategy: Bearish trading [8] Soda Ash and Glass - The soda ash and glass market has increasing supply and weak demand, with prices remaining bearish [8] - Strategy: Bearish trading or arbitrage strategies [8] Crude Oil - Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical risks and OPEC+ production increases, with short-term focus on resistance [8] - Strategy: Range-bound trading [8] Methanol - Methanol prices are under pressure due to increasing supply and weak demand, despite potential port restrictions [10] - Strategy: Bearish trading [10] Polyolefins - Polyolefin prices are likely to decline due to new capacity and weakening demand [10] - Strategy: Bearish trading [10] Cotton - Cotton prices are range-bound, with attention on weather and macro changes [10] - Strategy: Range-bound trading [10] Rubber - Rubber prices are bearish due to increasing supply and weak demand [10] - Strategy: Bearish trading [10]

更何况，最近靠着一招反复折腾关税操控资本市场，带着自己的亲朋好友们早早埋伏，没少赚美刀啊。 中美谈的是有90天的缓冲期，且还早着呢，不必着急早早的出结果。 最近这段时间暂停加征关税，可以让美国国内囤一波货，懂王也能缓缓。压力没那么大了，就可以换个 姿势作妖了，东大这边没有放松稀土出口，美国那边也在想办法加筹码，只是我认为不给中国学生签证 其实真的毫无意义，留学生的名声到底要怎么挽回来呢？董大姐私下里对留学生的评价，4+4风波，美 帝还真以为这一招能拿捏谁，那也是错判了行情。 之前懂王就把白宫的华裔幕僚都赶走了，因为他们提供了错误的讯息，这倒不是这帮高华们有意误导， 实在是这帮人无非是各种型号的章家敦。傲慢和偏见让他们根本看不清中国，只是一味地揣摩懂王的心 思，在那里胡说八道，等懂王发现上当了，已经掉坑里了。 现在无非是从一个坑掉另一个坑，凭空造出来的牌没什么作用，只能拖呗。 懂王那边着急的是推自己的大美丽法案。就这个法案，现在引发全美上下一片骚动，法案1000多页，估 计没几个人有耐心看完。不过网上有很多关于法案的解读，我看了半天，核心就四个字：劫贫济富，堵 死穷人占国家便宜的各种路子，让富人缴更少的税，让美 ...

海 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 东 贾利军 分析师 点 精 萃 宏观金融： 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话 ：021-68757181 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758120 邮箱 ：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68757089 邮箱 ：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-68757827 邮箱 ：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757827 邮箱 ：wangy il@qh168.com.cn 2025年5月30日 2025端午期间期货市场节前风险提示 海外方面，一是在美国联邦法院裁定美国政府"对等关税"违宪之后，美国上诉法 院允许美国 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius indicated that the recent US-China Geneva negotiations exceeded expectations, but uncertainties regarding US tariff policies remain significant, negatively impacting US economic growth [1] - Hatzius emphasized that trade between nations is not a zero-sum game, which is crucial for economic decision-makers to understand [1] - The firm noted that after the US-China trade negotiations, risks are gradually being released, and there is potential for valuation recovery in the e-commerce sector [2] Group 2: Industry-Specific Analysis - Goldman Sachs Asian Internet Research Head Ronald Keung pointed out that the potential adjustment of small package tax exemption policies by multiple countries could impact the e-commerce industry [2] - Goldman Sachs Asian Pharmaceutical Research Head Ziyi Chen analyzed that the US tariff measures on pharmaceuticals are filled with uncertainties, but the impact on China's pharmaceutical industry is limited, although supply chain costs may increase [2] - Goldman Sachs Industrial Technology Analyst Jacqueline Du discussed the development stage and competitive advantages of humanoid robots in China, noting that the industry is currently in the commercialization phase [3] Group 3: Automotive Sector Insights - Goldman Sachs Automotive Analyst Tina Hou observed that the competition in China's new energy vehicle market has entered a deep-water phase, with price wars still ongoing despite a slight narrowing in price reductions compared to last year [3] - The peak of capacity expansion in the new energy vehicle market has passed, but the "elimination race" among over 50 competing car manufacturers is still ongoing [3] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Goldman Sachs Chief China Equity Strategist Kinger Lau highlighted that despite ongoing external pressures, the resilience of Chinese assets is becoming increasingly evident, driven by domestic demand and policy support [3] - The firm noted that the structural opportunities for consumption upgrades and industrial transformation are being propelled by dual forces of domestic demand and policy incentives [3]

Group 1 - The overall trend in government bond futures since early April has been characterized by "long strong, short weak," with short-term bonds experiencing significant declines after mid-April, while long-term bonds have maintained a volatile pattern [1] - The market's expectations for interest rate cuts remain, with short-term yields appearing relatively appropriate after previous increases, indicating that the prior rise has exhausted policy space [1][2] - Concerns about the economic outlook persist, particularly regarding real estate and external demand, making long-term bonds more attractive compared to short-term bonds [1][2] Group 2 - The short-term bond market has shown signs of overvaluation, with the yield spread between short-term government bonds and funding rates at historical lows, leading to concerns about the sustainability of short-term bond prices [2] - The basic economic fundamentals are more favorable for long-term bonds, as April's economic data indicates a general decline, making long-term bonds more sensitive to these fundamentals [2] - Investors should closely monitor changes in external demand and monetary policy, particularly regarding the central bank's potential resumption of secondary market government bond transactions, which could impact bond yields [4] Group 3 - The upcoming economic performance, changes in funding conditions, and developments in US-China trade negotiations will significantly influence the bond market in June [3] - The pressure on external demand is expected to gradually affect domestic demand, which could enhance the driving force for a stronger bond market [4] - As of the end of April, foreign investors' holdings of domestic bonds reached 29,781.5 billion yuan, reflecting an increase and indicating a growing interest in Chinese assets amid global market shifts [4]

Group 1 - The main focus is on the significant military escalation in Ukraine, with Russia launching a record 367 drones and missiles in a single day, resulting in at least 12 deaths and numerous injuries [2] - Ukrainian President Zelensky has called for U.S. intervention, while U.S. officials have condemned Russia's actions and suggested potential additional sanctions [2] - The European Union is urging the U.S. to approach trade negotiations with respect, emphasizing a commitment to mutually beneficial agreements [2] Group 2 - The silver market is experiencing fluctuations, with the main contract reported at 8231 yuan per gram, a decrease of 0.47%, and trading within a range of 8200 to 8314 yuan per gram [1] - The outlook for silver is influenced by U.S.-China trade negotiations, which are expected to boost industrial manufacturing and improve demand in the photovoltaic and new energy sectors [3] - However, concerns about the U.S. economic downturn and high inventory levels may negatively impact industrial and investment demand for silver [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Defensive Observation [1][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Bullish in the short - term, expected to fluctuate upwards [1][5] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: Temporarily Observation, expected to fluctuate [7] - **Iron Ore**: Expected to fluctuate weakly [1][7] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Expected to fluctuate [1][9] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Cautious trading within a range [1][12] - **Aluminum**: Observation [1][13] - **Nickel**: Observation or shorting on rallies [1][15] - **Tin**: Trading within a range [1][17] - **Gold**: Building long positions on dips after full price corrections [1][19] - **Silver**: Trading within a range [1][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Expected to fluctuate weakly, focus on the 5000 level pressure [1][21] - **Soda Ash**: Observation, expected to fluctuate weakly [1][33] - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to fluctuate weakly, temporarily focus on the 2550 level pressure [1][23] - **Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate weakly, focus on the 15300 level pressure [1][25] - **Urea**: Expected to fluctuate weakly [1][28] - **Methanol**: Expected to fluctuate widely, reference range 2200 - 2380 [1][29] - **Plastic**: Expected to fluctuate widely, reference range 6950 - 7350 [1][31] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Expected to rebound with fluctuations [1][35] - **Apple**: Expected to fluctuate [1][35] - **PTA**: Trading within the range of 4650 - 4900 [1][36] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: Expected to fluctuate weakly [1][39] - **Eggs**: Shorting on rallies [1][40] - **Corn**: Trading within the range of 2300 - 2360, long on dips at the lower end of the range [1][41] - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term trading within the range of 2860 - 3000, long on dips after mid - June [1][43] - **Oils and Fats**: Shorting on rallies with caution [1][43] 2. Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products. It analyzes the impact of multiple factors such as macro - economy, policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and international trade on different futures markets. For most products, the market shows a trend of fluctuation, and the investment strategies mainly include observation, trading within a range, and short - term or long - term trading based on price levels and market trends [1][5][7]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Due to factors like domestic market rotation, weak main - line driving force, and insufficient trading volume, the stock index may fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to take a defensive observation stance [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the previous negative factors reached a peak, the bond market began to recover. Although investors are still cautious, it is expected to fluctuate upwards in the short - term [5]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: With falling apparent demand, rising production, and slowing inventory depletion, and considering low valuation and weakening demand, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Affected by macro - sentiment and coal price decline, although there are factors such as potential production increase of Australian mines and decreasing inventory, the iron ore 09 contract is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to observe [7][8]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Both coking coal and coke face supply - demand contradictions. Coking coal is affected by production restrictions, inventory accumulation, and weak demand; coke is affected by reduced demand from steel mills and price cuts. They are expected to fluctuate [9][10][11]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Despite weakening support from fundamentals, the copper price is still expected to fluctuate before the holiday due to factors such as mine - end interference, supply - demand situation, and inventory levels. It is recommended to trade cautiously within a range [12]. - **Aluminum**: With the change in the situation of Guinea's mining licenses, the price of alumina has risen. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, while the downstream demand may weaken. It is recommended to observe [13][14]. - **Nickel**: Although the cost is firm, there is a long - term supply surplus. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to observe or short on rallies [15][16]. - **Tin**: With factors such as changes in production and consumption, and the impact of tariff policies, the price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to trade within a range [17]. - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by factors such as Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, Fed policies, and inflation data, the prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to build long positions on dips [19]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high inventory, weak demand, and the impact of tariffs, although the short - term tariff situation has improved, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to macro - news [21][22]. - **Caustic Soda**: In June, there may be a situation of weak supply and demand. The medium - term supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand growth is limited. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [25]. - **Rubber**: With slow raw material supply increase in the short - term and weak downstream demand, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [26]. - **Urea**: With high supply, weak agricultural and industrial demand, and increasing inventory, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to short on rallies [28]. - **Methanol**: With relatively abundant supply and weak downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate widely. It is necessary to pay attention to multiple factors such as macro - changes and device maintenance [29][30]. - **Plastic**: With reduced supply due to maintenance and weak downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate widely. It is necessary to pay attention to downstream demand and other factors [31][32]. - **Soda Ash**: Although the spot price is firm, the futures price is under pressure due to insufficient expected maintenance. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to observe [33]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton**: Although the global supply - demand is still loose, due to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations, the cotton price is expected to rebound with fluctuations [35]. - **Apple**: With stable market transactions and clear fruit - setting and bagging situations, the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [35][36]. - **PTA**: Affected by the decline in oil prices and the weakening of supply - demand fundamentals, the price is under short - term pressure and is expected to fluctuate within a range [36][37]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: In the short - term, due to the game between supply and demand, the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. In the long - term, due to the increase in supply, the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies at resistance levels [39]. - **Eggs**: In the short - term, the egg price is supported by the approaching Dragon Boat Festival, but the supply is large, and the price is under pressure. In different periods, different investment strategies are recommended [40]. - **Corn**: In the short - term, the price is supported by reduced grassroots grain sources. In the long - term, although the supply - demand is tightening, the price increase is limited by substitutes. It is recommended to trade within a range and long on dips [41]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the short - term, due to factors such as sufficient supply, it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. In the long - term, due to cost increase and weather factors, it is expected to be bullish. It is recommended to trade within a range and long on dips after mid - June [43]. - **Oils and Fats**: In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate due to the game of multiple factors. In the long - term, it is expected to decline first and then rebound. It is recommended to short on rallies with caution [43][48].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations may experience fluctuations, and it is essential to focus on domestic economic management to mitigate the impacts of tariffs [1][2][15]. Group 1: Tariff Impact and Economic Strategy - Tariffs are a significant policy tool for the Trump administration, aimed at reducing the U.S. trade deficit and promoting the return of manufacturing jobs to the U.S. [3][4]. - The U.S. trade deficit is projected to reach approximately $1.2 trillion by 2024, indicating a long-term trend of increasing trade imbalance since 1980 [3]. - The manufacturing sector's contribution to GDP is expected to remain low, with manufacturing value added accounting for only 9.9% of GDP and manufacturing employment at 8.08% of total employment by the end of 2024 [3]. Group 2: Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index fell to 52.2 in April, reflecting a significant decline in public sentiment regarding the economic outlook since Trump's inauguration [3]. - Inflation expectations among consumers have risen, with one-year and five-year inflation expectations recorded at 6.5% and 4.4%, respectively, in April, marking substantial increases from previous months [4]. Group 3: Economic Challenges and Recommendations - There are five key areas where the Chinese economy needs improvement: declining export growth, weakening real estate transactions, low price levels, high consumer replacement rates, and a disconnect between unemployment rates and unemployment insurance expenditures [5][6][7][9][13]. - The real estate market shows signs of weakness, with a year-on-year decline in transactions of 21% and 10% in major cities during late April [8]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) continues to decline due to various factors, including real estate chain contraction and oversupply in new production capacities [9]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - To stabilize the job market and improve employment rates, especially for recent graduates, it is recommended to support specific industries and provide tax incentives for companies that commit to maintaining or increasing employment [14]. - The government should consider implementing "super-normal" policies, including timely and substantial economic stimulus measures, to address the challenges posed by tariffs and economic pressures [19][20].

中美电话会 5月22日，美国国务院和中国外交部分别发布通报，确认中美官员当日举行了通话。 这次沟通，是5月初日内瓦中美经贸会谈结束后，双方首次进行的后续接触。 对熟悉中美关系走向的观察者来说，这并不是一通普通的电话。 CNBC援引欧亚集团中国区总监王丹的评论指出，此次通话或许并不意味着中美贸易谈判出现了实质性突破，但它展示出一个关键迹象 ——日内瓦会谈中建立的沟通机制正在被延续，并逐步发挥作用。 而要真正理解这通电话的重要性，就不得不回顾此前那场引发波澜的"关税风暴"。 4月初，美国政府突然宣布对包括中国在内的全球贸易伙伴征收所谓"对等关税"。 这项政策不仅在全球范围内引起强烈反弹，也对中美关系造成了新的冲击。 时隔多天，美国终于打通了中国的电话。 双方在进行电话会谈之后，分别发布了相关的声明。 而这份声明，也透露出一个特殊的信号...... 在面对外部压力的同时，中国经济展现出强劲韧性。 正是这种稳定的表现，令外界重新评估了中国的抗压能力，也让美国内部产生了焦虑情绪。 在这种背景下，中美双方终于在5月10日至11日于瑞士日内瓦举行了新一轮经贸高层会谈。 中国方面由中美经贸事务的主要负责人出面，美国则派出财政 ...