Group 1 - The China Securities Convertible Bond Index opened up by 0.07% [1] - The Yunjin Convertible Bond rose over 3%, the Limin Convertible Bond increased nearly 3%, and the Fengshan Convertible Bond gained over 2% [1] - The Falan Convertible Bond experienced a decline of over 2% [1]

近日，东方富海获中国银行间市场交易商协会《接受注册通知书》，其在银行间市场发行科技创新债券 的计划取得关键性进展。据悉，该项目是债券市场"科技板"启动后的首单民营创投机构科技创新债券。 《关于支持发行科技创新债券有关事宜的公告》明确，金融机构、科技型企业、私募股权投资机构和创 业投资机构等三类机构可发行科技创新债券，募集资金用于支持科技创新领域投融资。 随着一系列政策密集出台和市场主体积极响应，债券市场"科技板"正加快落子。据Wind数据，自5月9 日科技创新债券上线以来，截至5月27日共发行137只科技创新债券，总发行量为3229.1亿元。专家表 示，当前多层次债券产品体系更加完善，将更好匹配不同生命周期科技企业的融资需求，引导资金流向 科技创新领域。 科技创新债密集发行 《关于支持发行科技创新债券有关事宜的公告》《关于进一步支持发行科技创新债券服务新质生产力的 通知》《加快构建科技金融体制有力支撑高水平科技自立自强的若干政策举措》……近期，一系列政策 举措相继出台，持续加大对科技创新领域的金融支持。 （文章来源：中国证券报） 债市"科技板"迅速落地和科技创新债券加快发行，是金融支持科技创新的重要举措。专家 ...

Report Overview - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics [2]. Market Data Summary Commodity Prices and Weekly Changes - Gold closed at 780.10 with a 3.76% weekly increase [2]. - Silver closed at 8263.00 with a 2.00% weekly increase [2]. - Other commodities like corn, copper, and glass had varying degrees of price changes, with some increasing and others decreasing [2]. Stock Indexes and Weekly Changes - The Shanghai Composite Index and other indexes also had corresponding price changes, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.38% - 1.10% [2]. Bond and Exchange Rates - Chinese 10 - year government bonds increased by 2.61%, and the euro - US dollar exchange rate rose by 1.79% [2]. Commodity Views Summary Macro - Financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy view: Among 9 institutions surveyed, 1 was bullish, 1 was bearish, and 7 expected a sideways movement [4]. - Bullish logics: RMB appreciation, capital inflow, net financing purchase, potential monetary policies, and policy support for the stock market [4]. - Bearish logics: Global debt issues, ineffective industrial policies, slow economic improvement, and low market trading volume [4]. Bond Futures - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions surveyed, all 7 expected a sideways movement [4]. - Bullish logics: Low possibility of tightened liquidity, declining interest rates, policy constraints on market rates, and weak real - economy financing demand [4]. - Bearish logics: Unlikely further interest - rate cuts, upcoming special treasury bond supply, rising risk appetite, and expected policy - driven inflation and growth [4]. Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy view: Among 9 institutions surveyed, 1 was bullish, 4 were bearish, and 4 expected a sideways movement [5]. - Bullish logics: Rebound in transportation data, decline in US active oil rigs, high gold - oil ratio, and lack of clear OPEC production increase data [5]. - Bearish logics: Approaching US debt crisis, rumored OPEC+ production increase, inventory accumulation, easing US - Iran relations, poor US debt auction, and tariff threats [5]. Agricultural Sector Palm Oil - Strategy view: Among 8 institutions surveyed, 0 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 6 expected a sideways movement [5]. - Bullish logics: Increase in Malaysian palm oil exports, limited production increase in May, high Indian imports, and decreasing domestic inventory [5]. - Bearish logics: Increase in Malaysian palm oil production, excessive domestic purchases, higher - than - expected production data, seasonal production increase, and potential reduction in biodiesel demand [5]. Non - Ferrous Metals Sector Aluminum - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions surveyed, 2 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 5 expected a sideways movement [6]. - Bullish logics: Tariff - buffer - driven exports, improvement in US manufacturing PMI, inventory reduction, and continuous decline in social inventory [6]. - Bearish logics: Low downstream processing profits, post - tariff - window demand pressure, potential decline in photovoltaic demand, and high valuation [6]. Chemical Sector Glass - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions surveyed, 0 were bullish, 3 were bearish, and 4 expected a sideways movement [6]. - Bullish logics: Improved regional sales, reduced inventory, potential policy support, and technical support at the current price [6]. - Bearish logics: Price cuts for inventory reduction, high daily melting volume, approaching traditional off - season, and weak real - estate demand [6]. Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions surveyed, 4 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 3 expected a sideways movement [7]. - Bullish logics: Global bond market volatility, Chinese reduction of US debt, trade risks, and geopolitical tensions [7]. - Bearish logics: Market pricing of US fiscal bill impact, potential limited impact of tariff threats, possible decline in gold's relative attractiveness, and overbought technical signals [7]. Black Metals Sector Coking Coal - Strategy view: Among 9 institutions surveyed, 0 were bullish, 3 were bearish, and 6 expected a sideways movement [7]. - Bullish logics: Coal mine maintenance, high steel - mill profits, strong basis after price decline, and weak coking - enterprise production - cut incentives [7]. - Bearish logics: High mine inventory, declining iron - water production, high auction failure rate, shrinking coking profits, and high port clearance volume [7].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a weak and volatile trend, with expectations for liquidity driven by recent interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, but the sentiment remains limited [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The bond market showed a fluctuating trend from May 19 to May 25, with adjustments in interest rate bonds and a slight compression in credit spreads [3]. - The average yield of medium to long-term pure bond funds was 0.08%, while short-term bond funds recorded an average yield of 0.05% [6]. - Major bond funds have seen significant fundraising activity, with 48 out of 85 newly established bond funds raising over 1 billion yuan, and 12 funds exceeding 5 billion yuan [7][8]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Analysts suggest maintaining duration allocation while increasing the proportion of swing trading due to the current market conditions [5][6]. - The market is focused on upcoming economic data, supply pressures, and changes in liquidity, but lacks factors that could lead to a trend-driven market [5]. - Following the recent interest rate cuts, there is an expectation that the central bank will continue to support liquidity, reducing concerns about significant increases in funding costs [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Securities suggests that if the Japanese government decides to reduce issuance, the ultra-long Japanese government bond market may continue to stabilize in the future [1] Group 1 - Nomura Securities strategist Jin Moteki believes that the Ministry of Finance may shift towards short-term borrowing starting in the third quarter, reducing the issuance of ultra-long bonds while increasing the issuance of short-term bonds [1] - This expectation appears to have led to a bull flattening of the Japanese government bond yield curve today [1] - Close attention is required on the results of the Japanese government bond primary dealer meeting scheduled for June 20 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance and market activity of the credit bond ETF Bosera, which has seen a continuous increase in trading and liquidity, indicating strong investor interest [2][3] - As of May 27, 2025, the credit bond ETF Bosera has achieved a price of 100.79 yuan, marking a 0.05% increase and a seven-day consecutive rise [2] - The fund has recorded a trading volume of 46.02 billion yuan with a turnover rate of 67.44%, reflecting active market participation [2] Group 2 - The credit bond ETF Bosera has experienced a net inflow of funds over the past five days, totaling 13.03 billion yuan, with a peak single-day inflow of 5.25 billion yuan [3] - The fund's leverage has been increasing, with a latest financing balance of 55.00 million yuan, indicating sustained interest from leveraged investors [3] - Since its inception, the credit bond ETF Bosera has shown a monthly profit percentage of 66.67% and a historical three-month holding profit probability of 100.00% [3] Group 3 - The fund's maximum drawdown since inception is 0.89%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.10%, and it took 26 days to recover from the maximum drawdown [3] - The management fee for the credit bond ETF Bosera is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, which are among the lowest in comparable funds [3] - The tracking error for the fund year-to-date is 0.009%, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [3]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a volatile upward trend in yields, with expectations of continued fluctuations in the near future [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The short-term funding environment is stabilizing, with DR001 fluctuating around 1.5%, and attention is on the central bank's liquidity injection at the end of the month [1] - The overall cross-month liquidity has remained stable in recent months, indicating low risk in the near term [1] - The central tendency of DR001 is expected to remain around 1.4% [1] Group 2: Credit Market Insights - There is an opportunity to capitalize on the compression of credit spreads, as short-duration high-grade credit spreads have narrowed to low levels [1] - The market may shift towards longer-duration high-grade credit bonds, particularly those with maturities of over three years [1]

5月20日，新发行的20年期日本国债拍卖结果惨淡，投标倍数跌至2.5倍，达到2012年以来最低水平，其 平均价格与最低接受价格之间的差距（尾差）飙升至1.14，反映出市场需求严重低迷。受此影响，20年 期日本国债收益率上升到2000年以来最高水平，30年、40年期国债收益率也出现飙升。5月23日，日本 最大的寿险公司——日本生命保险（Nippon Life）宣布，截至今年3月底，它持有的日本国债已经出现 巨额账面浮亏，金额高达3.6万亿日元（约合250亿美元），比去年同期暴增两倍。 日本国债遇冷成因复杂，反映出一些结构性问题和长期深层次矛盾。 首先，日本央行自2024年起逐步缩减量化宽松，每月购债规模从5.7万亿日元降至5万亿日元，计划至 2026年降至2.9万亿日元。这一缩表进程直接削弱了市场对国债的流动性支撑，而传统买家如寿险公司 却未填补缺口，导致供需失衡加剧。 其次，日本首相石破茂近期公开承认"日本财政状况比希腊更糟"。根据国际货币基金组织（IMF）最新 数据，日本的公共债务已达国内生产总值（GDP）的234.9%，大大超过希腊在欧债危机期间最高的比 重。日本预计将用于偿还债务利息的支出占到年度预算的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is currently experiencing a phase of cautious sentiment and narrow fluctuations, influenced by recent interest rate cuts and government bond supply dynamics [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Despite recent deposit rate cuts, the bond market has not reacted positively, as these cuts are viewed as a continuation of earlier rate reduction actions [2][3]. - From May 19 to May 23, the bond market showed a mixed performance, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 1 basis point to 1.69%, while the 3-year bond yield fell by 1 basis point to 1.49% [2]. - The issuance of long-term government bonds has been weak, with a notable decline in the bid-to-cover ratio for recent auctions, indicating reduced enthusiasm in the primary market [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Imbalance - There is a significant mismatch between the growth rates of government bonds and bank liabilities, with government bond growth increasing from 17.0% to 20.7%, while bank liabilities only rose from 6.3% to 7.4% [3]. - The pressure on banks to absorb new government bond supply is expected to increase, leading to a potential reduction in their demand for bonds in the secondary market [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The supply pressure in the bond market is likely to ease in June and July, with a projected increase in government bond maturities and a slowdown in new bond issuance [4]. - Analysts anticipate that the net issuance of government bonds will decrease significantly in the second half of the year, which could improve the supply-demand dynamics in the bond market [4]. - There is a possibility of a "bond bull" market re-emerging, driven by stable demand for fixed-income assets and a potential decline in interest rates [5].

以下文章来源于川阅全球宏观 ，作者邵翔 川阅全球宏观 . 卖方宏观研究，舞动漫天彩绸固然是一种本事，剪取庭前小枝也需要视角与功底。 文 | 绍翔 来源 | 川阅全球宏观 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 当作为曾经全球三大资产泡沫之一的日债，都出现了"销售"问题，这本身就是对全球债市变局的一种警示。 本周，20年期日债和美债 的"灾难性"拍卖，叠加美国众议院比较顺利地通过减税与支出法案，导致全球债市的动荡，日本和美国债市首当其冲。尽管有偶发因素， 但背后凸显的矛盾却越发明显，全球变局下债券逃不开的供需错配问题，而所有这些问题的交汇焦点就在美债（以及背后的美元）：无论 是4月中下旬贸易摩擦下的外资抛售"恐慌"，还是5月初新台币的暴涨背后对于亚洲资金减配美元资产的担忧。 我们在之前的报告里反复强调 美债问题会是特朗普2.0最大的"背刺"， 当前这个观点没变，在本篇报告中，我们会进一步结合特朗普的减 税和关税主线，给出美债等资产风险的分析框架。 首先说说对于全球变局的看法，对于广义的债务来说，有供给和需求两个角度： 贸易和地缘格局的重构本来应该意味着美国财政的相对紧缩、其他经济体财政更加积极，进而达成全球债务 ...