五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 有色金属日报 2026-1-28 铜 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 铝 【行情资讯】 美元指数下挫，国际金价续创新高，油价上涨，铝价震荡上行，昨日伦铝收盘涨 0.53%至 3212 美元 /吨，沪铝主力合约收至 24350 元/吨。昨日沪铝加权合约持仓量减少 1.5 至 71.7 万手，期货仓单 微降至 14.1 万吨。国内铝锭三地库存环比小幅增加，铝棒库存环比略增，昨日铝棒加工费继续抬 升，成交一般 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-白银】世界大型企业联合会发布数据显示，受地缘 政治紧张、生活成本高企以及贸易战等因素影响，美国1月消费 者信心指数环比下降9.7点，降至84.5，创2014年以来新低。 评：消费者信息指数下降，美国风暴依然持续，或影响市场的 风险偏好，利空白银。市场静待美联储议息会议公布，外盘白 银创新高并收长上影线，建议管控风险，短期不建议过分看 多。关注黄金、白银相互影响。 【短评-甲醇】西北地区甲醇样本生产企业周度签单量 11.31万吨，环比增加5.04万吨；江苏太仓甲醇市场价2267元/ 吨，下降33元/吨；国内甲醇周产能利用率89.92%，环比- 1.18%；下游总产能利用率71.26%，周下降1.3%；甲醇港口样本 库存145.75万吨，周上升2.22万吨；中国甲醇样本生产企业库 存43.83万吨，周降1.25万吨。评：国内甲醇开工高位，下游需 求下降，甲醇港口库存累库，江苏沿江主流库区提货良好。内 地甲醇市场涨跌互现，企业竞拍成交顺畅为主，港口甲醇市场 基差偏强，商谈成交一般。甲醇港口库存高位上升，现货市场 表现尚可，预计短期震荡偏强。 投资咨询中心 2026年01月28日 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the US dollar, with President Trump stating that he is not concerned about the dollar's decline, which has led to a drop in the dollar index to a four-year low of 95.7905, down over 1% [1][7] - The People's Bank of China reported that by the end of Q4 2025, 275,000 technology-oriented SMEs received loans, with a loan approval rate of 50.2%, an increase of 2 percentage points from the previous year [1] - The total balance of RMB loans from financial institutions reached 271.91 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, with an annual increase of 16.27 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - Precious metals have seen a significant rebound, with gold prices reaching new historical highs due to geopolitical tensions and a loose liquidity environment, which has increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][19] - The market is concerned about the sustainability of US debt and the independence of the Federal Reserve, which has weakened the dollar's credibility and increased central bank demand for gold [2][19] - The expansion of gold and silver ETFs has contributed to the rise in precious metal prices, with silver experiencing larger short-term gains but potential profit-taking pressure, while gold remains more stable [2][19] Group 3 - Oil prices increased by 1.54% following President Trump's comments about potential diplomatic engagement with Iran and easing tensions in Venezuela, where a comprehensive oil law reform is being advanced [3][14] - The average daily production of US crude oil was reported at 13.732 million barrels, a decrease of 21,000 barrels from the previous week but an increase of 255,000 barrels year-on-year [3][14] Group 4 - The US stock market, particularly the NASDAQ, has shown positive performance, driven by a combination of technological cycles, policy benefits, economic recovery, and the return of overseas capital [4][12] - The market's transition from valuation expansion to profit-driven growth is noted, with expectations for continued upward movement in the stock market supported by supply-side reforms and policy effects [4][12]

Group 1 - The U.S. is conducting air force readiness exercises in the Middle East, leading to a 3.0% increase in WTI crude oil prices to $62.46 per barrel and Brent crude oil prices to $66.72 per barrel [1] - Geopolitical tensions in regions like Venezuela and Iran are raising concerns about supply risks, with the U.S. Central Command announcing military exercises amid increasing military pressure on Iran [1] - The weakening of the U.S. dollar is contributing to rising commodity prices, with the dollar index dropping to 95.51, the lowest level since February 2022, and a cumulative decline of over 2.2% for the month [2] Group 2 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2026 to 930,000 barrels per day, up from a previous estimate of 860,000 barrels per day, driven by improved global economic prospects and lower oil prices [2] - Deutsche Bank analysts have adjusted their 2026 Brent crude oil price forecast to $61.50 per barrel, anticipating a significant reduction in the oversupply of oil in the second half of 2026 [3] - Huatai Securities has raised its forecast for the average Brent crude oil price in 2026 to $65 per barrel, citing geopolitical premiums and expected demand recovery [3] Group 3 - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883) is the largest offshore oil and gas producer in China, focusing on exploration and production with strong cost and return profiles [4] - PetroChina Company Limited (00857) is the largest oil and gas producer and seller in China, with an integrated upstream and downstream business model covering the entire industry chain [4] - Sinopec Limited (00386) is a top global refining company with a strong sales network and capabilities in refining and chemical product production [4]

（原标题：港股概念追踪 | 地缘紧张与需求预期双重驱动 国际油价加速上涨(附概念股)） 智通财经APP获悉，美国将在中东举行空军战备演习，国际油价应声上涨，WTI原油日内涨幅达3.0%， 报62.46美元/桶；布伦特原油日内涨幅达3.0%，报66.72美元/桶。由于伊朗与美国的对峙及美元走弱等 影响，国际油价近期仍处于震荡上行期。 2026年1月以来，委内瑞拉、伊朗等地缘紧张局势再次引发市场供应风险担忧。据新华社报道，负责中 东地区美军行动的美军中央司令部27日发布声明说，其第九航空队将举行一场为期数天的空军战备演 习，以展示其在中央司令部责任区内快速部署、分散部署和持续作战的能力。 此次演习正值美国对伊朗不断施加军事压力之际。前一天，中央司令部宣布美军"亚:伯拉罕·林肯"号航 空母舰打击群已驶入中东水域。 美国总统特朗普宣称在伊朗附近的军事存在正在增强，但同时他也表示未排除外交选项。 伊朗石油储量全球第四，而霍尔木兹海峡是全球石油运输的咽喉——每天2100万桶原油经此运往世界。 若中东局势发生变化，将对能源及运输产生巨大影响。 中东地区的地缘局势始终是原油市场的黑天鹅来源，伊朗问题的反复、霍尔木兹海峡航运受 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：能源研发中心 日报观点 【1】期货盘面：BU 2603主力合约日内震荡拉锯，振幅达1.19%，下午2点后有所拉升。收盘价3279， 较昨日收盘价持平，盘中最高触及3299，最低3260。06远月合约微跌0.55%。 【2】现货基本面：截止至1月26日，DES山东稀释沥青即期升贴水录得15.97美元/桶，近些时间基本维 持在15-16美元/桶区间内。1月27日华东重交沥青市场低端价为3180元/吨；市场高端价为3230元/吨，低 端资源货从1月23日的3150元/吨有所上涨，高端货维持不变。现货市场保持平稳运行，无过多变化，现 货依旧按需采购为主。北方雨雪天气，南方降温影响，需求相对一般。受期货盘面影响，个别炼厂提高 现货报价，市场低价资源逐渐减少，对价格底部形成有效支撑。 【3】短期展望：今日沥青表现依旧展现了其抗跌属性，在整体能化板块跌势收尾下，03合约价格波动 相对稳定，日内振幅也小于SC原油03 03合约2.62%和燃料油03合约3.40%。在油价走弱下，沥青也跟随 成本端波动，只不过在原料风险托举下，跌势相对缓和。据市场消息称，委 ...

Core Insights - A trade agreement between India and the United States is nearing completion despite ongoing tariff frictions and geopolitical tensions [1] Group 1 - The negotiations are influenced by tariff frictions that continue to affect trade relations [1] - Geopolitical factors are also playing a significant role in shaping the discussions surrounding the trade agreement [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of geopolitical economics and its impact on economic policy objectives, emphasizing the need for a careful analysis of resource allocation and the potential long-term consequences of prioritizing geopolitical goals over economic efficiency [4][5][6]. Group 1: Geopolitical Economic Context - China is facing unprecedented external challenges due to rising unilateralism and protectionism, as highlighted in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4]. - Zhou Xiaochuan, former governor of the People's Bank of China, provided insights on the three key dimensions of geopolitical economics during a closed-door seminar, offering new perspectives on the current situation [4]. Group 2: Changes in Economic Policy Objectives - Economic policies have shifted from primarily focusing on development to incorporating geopolitical considerations, which may lead to suboptimal resource allocation [5]. - Historical examples, such as the Cold War, illustrate how prioritizing geopolitical goals can adversely affect a nation's economic strength in the long run [5][6]. Group 3: Resource Allocation and Economic Efficiency - The article presents a microeconomic example from China in the late 20th century, where tariff distortions led to overcapacity in the textile industry, demonstrating the importance of optimal resource allocation [6][7]. - Measures taken for geopolitical reasons, such as tariffs, can result in significant resource misallocation and long-term competitiveness issues [7][9]. Group 4: Current Tariff Wars - The U.S. tariff strategy includes both a general tariff rate and differential tariffs based on product or country, which contradicts established international trade rules [9][10]. - The imposition of tariffs can lead to resource misallocation and may provoke retaliatory measures from other countries, undermining overall economic efficiency [9][10]. Group 5: Multilateral Rules and Challenges - The article emphasizes the importance of multilateralism and the need to support reforms within the World Trade Organization (WTO) to address current challenges in international trade [12][13]. - The concept of origin certification is discussed, highlighting its limitations in the context of globalized supply chains and the need for reform to better reflect value addition [14][15].

智通财经APP获悉，1月27日港股市场，北水成交净卖出6.35亿港元，其中港股通(沪)成交净卖出13.74亿港元，港股通(深)成交净买入7.39亿港元。 北水净买入最多的个股是腾讯(00700)、中国人寿(02628)、长飞光纤光缆(06869)。北水净卖出最多的个股是中国移动(00941)、紫金矿业(02899)、盈富基金 (02800)。 | 十大成交活躍證券 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排名 | 股票代碼 | 名稱 | 買入金額 (HKD) | 賣出金額 (HKD) | | 1 | 09988 | 阿里巴巴 - W | 2.334.368.700 | 2,391,597. | | 2 | 00700 | 騰訊控股 | 2,128,731,950 | 1,259,649, | | 3 | 00941 | 中國移動 | 521,496,700 | 2,114,277, | | র্ব | 00981 | 中芯國際 | 1,007,532,750 | 1,093,525, | | 5 | 02628 | 中國人壽 | 1,116,347,980 | ...

智通财经APP获悉，1月27日港股市场，北水成交净卖出6.35亿港元，其中港股通(沪)成交净卖出13.74亿港元，港股通(深)成交净买入7.39亿港元。 北水净买入最多的个股是腾讯(00700)、中国人寿(02628)、长飞光纤光缆(06869)。北水净卖出最多的个股是中国移动(00941)、紫金矿业(02899)、盈富基金 (02800)。 | 排名 | | 名稱 | 買入金額 (HKD) | 賣出金額 (HKD) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 09988 | 阿里巴巴 - W | 2.334.368.700 | 2,391,597, | | 2 | 00700 | 騰訊控股 | 2,128,731,950 | 1,259,649, | | 3 | 00941 | 中國移動 | 521,496,700 | 2,114,277, | | র্ব | 00981 | 中芯國際 | 1,007,532,750 | 1,093,525, | | 5 | 02628 | 中國人壽 | 1,116,347,980 | 605,049, | | ଚ | 02899 | 紫 ...