谁在把铜往美国口袋里搬？问题先摆着，别急着笑着点头，事情比你想的复杂得多，且让我们把这条线拽紧，慢慢拉扯。 AI数据中心，这个词值得重复，够形象——算力为王的时代，电要输得进来，数据要连得上去，铜是桥梁，是血管，是神经，用铜不是情怀，是物理需 求，一个大型AI中心用铜是传统的三到五倍，这数字不是吓人，是事实，读懂它，才能读懂这波购买的动因。 再往里看，美国在抢，抢的不只是铜，抢的是定价权，是产业链话语权，是未来算力部署的先手棋，金融亦配合其声势，美元降息窗口一开，资本找硬资产 避风，这硬资产里，铜站着，既能工业消耗，又能金融博弈，恰好合拍。 这合拍的结果显而易见，交易员开始押注，摩科瑞说价格可能上冲12000到15000美元一吨，听着像预测，更像励志，结果是下游要买单，家电、新能源车、 电子厂的账单会变长，消费者的口袋会被动摇，谁来负责这账本的增加，这才是问题。 这不是普通的涨价，这或是一场金融战的延伸，战术是用政策把资源圈起来，用资本把价格推高，再把高成本输出给别人，这逻辑冷冰冰，却也合乎经济学 的某些教科书——资源稀缺 需求垄断=利润重新分配，重分配的对象是制造业，是消费者。 2025年12月，铜价一夜暴 ...

Core Viewpoint - The visit of Russian President Putin to India marks a significant moment for strengthening bilateral relations, particularly in energy and defense sectors, amidst geopolitical pressures from the U.S. and the ongoing Ukraine crisis [1][2]. Group 1: Energy and Defense Cooperation - Both countries agreed to enhance cooperation in energy and defense, with Putin emphasizing Russia's commitment to supply oil, gas, and coal to India [2]. - The leaders expressed intentions to encourage technology transfer and joint ventures for producing Russian defense equipment in India [2]. Group 2: New Areas of Cooperation - The discussions highlighted a shift towards expanding cooperation into new areas such as technology innovation, connectivity, and local currency settlements, aiming to build a more resilient bilateral relationship [4]. - The goal is to increase annual bilateral trade to $100 billion, with a focus on diversifying trade beyond energy and defense [4]. Group 3: Strategic Context - The timing of the visit coincides with the 25th anniversary of the Russia-India strategic partnership and U.S. pressures on India regarding its oil purchases from Russia [1]. - Analysts suggest that India is leveraging this visit to showcase its economic diversification strategy and maintain a balance between its relations with Russia and the U.S. [1][2]. Group 4: Infrastructure and Logistics - Agreements were signed to enhance cooperation in transportation and logistics, focusing on developing stable and efficient transport corridors to reduce dependence on Western shipping routes [5]. - This initiative reflects both countries' desire for greater autonomy in the context of global supply chain restructuring [5].

"台积电董事长要来大陆了！" 这则消息，近日在中国半导体圈引发广泛关注。 此前有知情人士透露，台积电董事长魏哲家"有望于12月4日现身南京，出席台积电开放创新平台（OIP）生态系统 论坛，并计划密集拜访多家本土芯片设计公司"。 若行程属实，这将是他自 2023年上海技术论坛后，两年来首次踏足大陆。 这场论坛作为台积电2025年OIP全球巡回的压轴场，此前已走过硅谷、东京、新竹、阿姆斯特丹四站。 尽管台积电官方已第一时间否认相关传闻，且公开信息显示，此次活动仅有台积电院士、设计暨技术平台副总经 理鲁立忠公开发言，并未出现总裁魏哲家的身影及相关媒体报道，但一个不争的事实是：从市场布局到供应链支 撑，台积电始终离不开大陆。 另一边，美国早已盯上半导体产业这块 "蛋糕"。 卢特尼克3日接受美国媒体采访时指出，台积电宣布将增加投资1000亿美元，总投资额达1605亿美元。他说："当 然，他们（台湾）也会训练美国劳工。最终目标是将供应链转移到美国，在美国生产半导体及药品，训练美国人 从事这些工作。让整个供应链都留在美国。这就是我们全部的目的。" 这家芯片巨头再次站上地缘政治的十字路口。 01 主动布局 2016年7月6日 ...

欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩说，她5日与德国总理默茨、比利时首相德韦弗就欧盟委员会提出的用俄罗斯 被冻结资产资助乌克兰方案举行了会议，但讨论未能取得结果，磋商将继续。俄罗斯驻德国大使当天警 告，上述方案将对欧盟产生严重后果。 冯德莱恩5日会后在社交媒体X平台上说："我们一致认为，鉴于当前的地缘政治形势，抓紧时间至关重 要……我们就此事进行了非常有建设性的交流……我们同意继续讨论，以期在12月18日的欧洲理事会会 议上达成共识。" 她还说，对乌克兰的财政支持对欧洲安全具有"核心重要性"。 就欧盟"以俄资乌"方案，俄罗斯驻德国大使谢尔盖·涅恰耶夫5日警告称此举将对欧盟产生严重后果。 "任何未经俄罗斯同意的对俄主权资产操作都构成盗窃。"涅恰耶夫在发送给法新社的一份声明中强调， 窃取俄罗斯国家资金将产生严重后果。 他说，这一"前所未有的举动"可能"摧毁欧盟的商业声誉，并使欧洲各国政府陷入无休止的诉讼"。"实 际上，这是一条通往法律混乱和破坏全球金融体系基础的道路，首当其冲的将是欧盟……我们相信，布 鲁塞尔和柏林都清楚这一点。" 在10月下旬举行的欧盟峰会上，因比利时强烈反对，欧盟各国未能就"以俄资乌"贷款方案达成一致。俄 ...

新华财经科伦坡12月6日电（记者陈冬书）俄罗斯总统普京4日至5日对印度进行国事访问。这是乌克兰 危机升级后普京首次访印，也正值美国以印度购买俄石油为由对印加征惩罚性关税之时。 经贸方面，双方签署《2030年愿景》，提出力争将双边贸易额提升至1000亿美元，扩大本币结算比重， 并加快推动印度与欧亚经济联盟自由贸易协定谈判。在印俄商业论坛上，莫迪提出两国正迈入"创新、 共同生产与共同创造"的新时代。 劳动力合作方面，双方签署移民协议，为印度技术人才提供新就业渠道，以缓解美国临时工作类签证紧 缩带来的压力。 在互联互通领域，双方签署多项协议，强调在建设"稳定、高效运输走廊"方面深化合作，旨在提高物流 效率、降低对西方航运体系的依赖，并在全球供应链重构背景下提升自主性。 双方作何评价 普京专机落地后，莫迪亲赴机场迎接，并用英俄双语连续发布三条社交媒体消息。他称普京为"我的朋 友"，强调"印俄友谊经受住了时间考验"，还晒出两人握手拥抱、车内热切交谈以及向普京赠书的照 片。 双方会谈结束后，印度外交秘书唐勇胜表示，此访的核心目标是扩大经济合作、加强产业链协同和提升 投资伙伴关系，在当前地缘政治紧张背景下，印俄关系被视为" ...

Group 1 - The core message of the articles highlights the strengthening of India-Russia relations, particularly in energy cooperation, amidst global challenges and pressures from the US [1][3][5] - Modi and Putin announced a five-year economic cooperation plan aimed at increasing bilateral trade to $100 billion by 2030, emphasizing a diversified and sustainable trade relationship [3][4] - The trade between India and Russia is projected to grow by 12% in 2024, reaching approximately $64 billion, with significant contributions from India's oil purchases from Russia [3][4] Group 2 - Russia is positioned as a reliable supplier of various energy resources to India, including oil, gas, and coal, with ongoing projects like the construction of India's largest nuclear power plant [4][6] - The discussions included the initiation of free trade agreement negotiations between India and the Eurasian Economic Union, indicating a strategic shift in trade dynamics [4][5] - The geopolitical implications of the India-Russia partnership may strain India's relations with the EU and the US, as India seeks to balance its strategic partnerships [7]

[原ta油ble周_r报eportdate] 2025 年 12 月 5 日 震荡偏弱，注意波动率上升风险 风险提示：地缘局势的不确定性。 [table_main] 宏源公司类模板 分析师：范智颖 从业资格号：F03117807 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0022690 研究所 Tel：010-82292099 Email：fanzhiying@swhysc.com 相关研究 《原油 2025 年展望：增产预期压制上方 空间》 《宏源原油周报 20250110：低库存下油 价对于供给的潜在减量较为敏感》 《宏源原油二季度报告：等待利空因素 消化，不必过度悲观》 《原油月报：转机与阴霾同在》 《原油周报 20250509：短期以反弹修复 看待》 《原油 6 月展望：6 月仍有下行压力》 《原油 2025 年 H2 展望：利空因素逐步 消化，下半年谨慎看涨》 《原油周报20250711：短期矛盾不凸显， 油价波动率回归》 《原油 8 月展望：宏观与需求支撑转弱， 8 月注意下行压力》 《原油周报 20250822：短期或延续降波 震荡行情》 《原油 9 月展望：等待利空因素释放》 《原油周报 20251010：中东局 ...

Core Viewpoint - The visit of Russian President Putin to India marks a significant moment in strengthening the "special and privileged strategic partnership" between Russia and India amidst the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the deteriorating US-India relations [1][5][6]. Group 1: Diplomatic Engagement - Modi welcomed Putin at the Palam Air Force Base, breaking from tradition, and hosted a private dinner to set the tone for their discussions [1][3][8]. - The informal one-on-one meeting between Modi and Putin is considered a key aspect of the visit, focusing on urgent bilateral and international issues [3][10]. - The visit is expected to culminate in the signing of approximately 10 intergovernmental and departmental documents, along with over 15 business agreements and memorandums [4][11]. Group 2: Economic and Trade Relations - The discussions will include a significant focus on defense cooperation, particularly regarding the S-400 missile system, Su-57 fighter jets, and potential collaborations on the S-500 system and BrahMos missile upgrades [4][11]. - India aims to reduce its trade deficit with Russia and secure broader market access for Indian goods, indicating a strong commercial intent behind Putin's visit [12]. - The visit is anticipated to enhance social ties beyond traditional sectors like defense and energy, including increased people-to-people exchanges [12]. Group 3: Geopolitical Context - The backdrop of the visit includes the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the cooling of US-India relations, with external pressures from Western nations on India regarding its ties with Russia [6][13]. - The visit is seen as a test of India's ability to maintain a delicate balance between its relationships with Russia and the United States [5][14]. - The geopolitical implications of the visit highlight India's independent stance in global politics, as it navigates complex international dynamics [5][12].

隔夜收高后，亚盘油价小幅下跌，但仍有望实现周涨幅。本周，地缘政治问题支撑了价格，市场关注俄 乌冲突和美委紧张局势带来的供应风险。对美联储下周降息的希望增加了利好因素，因为降息可以提振 经济活动和能源需求，并软化美元，从而使美元计价的 大宗商品变得更便宜。大华 银行分析师表示， 强劲的美国就业数据对美联储降息的预期影响甚微。华侨银行策略师表示："联邦基金 期货继续表明， 12月FOMC会议降息25个基点已经被完全定价。" ...

Group 1 - The outlook for the US stock market in the coming year is optimistic, particularly for the technology and financial sectors, supported by corporate earnings performance and the prospect of interest rate cuts [1] - The Hong Kong stock market is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 12.5 times, which is considered reasonable. There is a positive outlook for technology stocks and chip-related themes, bolstered by government policy support, with a high likelihood of stock price increases in the next six months, barring geopolitical events [1] - There is uncertainty regarding whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the first quarter of next year, as it coincides with the end of Chairman Powell's term. Bond prices may experience volatility due to related news, leading to a cautious preference for investments in bonds with a maturity of three years or less and investment-grade corporate bonds [1]