Core View - The report describes the author's experience of participating in a lantern riddle event during the Lantern Festival, highlighting the integration of professional terms in the riddle and the contrast between the market's uncertainty and the stability of life, expressing the author's determination to face the market and the reliance on the warmth of life [2][3][4] Summary by Related Content Lantern Festival Experience - The author, an energy and chemical futures analyst, participates in a lantern riddle event on the Lantern Festival, enjoying the city's fireworks and the fun of riddle - guessing [2] - Riddles at the event contain many "industry jargons", such as the riddle about futures and the "stop - loss line" [2] Market Discussion - While enjoying the Lantern Festival, the author's colleagues still discuss the market, with concerns about the Middle East situation and the potential jump - up of post - holiday crude oil prices [3] Reflection on Life and Market - The author believes that the Lantern Festival for futures people is a reconciliation between "certainty" and "uncertainty", and the warmth of life can be the confidence to face market fluctuations [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report In the short - term, the market may enter an oscillation and volatility - reduction cycle. The overall market atmosphere is under certain suppression, but in the medium - to - long - term, the commodity bull market is expected to continue. Different industries have their own supply - demand situations and influencing factors, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed based on these [39][45]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance Stock Index - **Market Information**: The annualized basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter are presented. For example, IF's ratios are 4.70%/2.97%/5.48%/4.74% [2]. - **Strategy View**: Affected by factors such as the US - Iran conflict, US tariff policy, RMB exchange rate, and AI business, the stock index is expected to have a relatively strong performance [3]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: The closing prices and changes of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts on Thursday are provided. There are also news about Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the stance of the Bank of Japan. The central bank conducted 320.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 79.5 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy View**: Although inflation recovery has potential suppression on the bond market, and the endogenous power of economic recovery is not stable, the capital side is expected to remain loose. The bond market is expected to continue to oscillate [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver have declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index are reported. The precious metal prices are in horizontal consolidation, with support from Trump's tariff plan and the US - Iran nuclear negotiation, and resistance from the Fed's officials' statements and the expectation of stable US short - term interest rates [7]. - **Strategy View**: The precious metal prices are expected to remain in high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference ranges of 11,300 - 12,000 yuan/gram for Shanghai gold and 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/kilogram for Shanghai silver [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Affected by the US - Iran negotiation and other factors, copper prices are in oscillatory adjustment. LME inventory has increased, and domestic social and bonded area inventories have also changed. The spot discount in the East China region has expanded [11]. - **Strategy View**: The US tariff policy provides emotional support, but the refined copper supply is relatively excessive. Short - term copper prices are expected to be oscillatory, with reference ranges of 101,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 13,100 - 13,400 US dollars/ton for LME copper [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices have adjusted. LME inventory has decreased, and domestic inventory has increased. The spot discount in the East China region has narrowed [13]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term price support is strong. The reference ranges are 23,400 - 23,900 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum and 3,100 - 3,170 US dollars/ton for LME aluminum [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices have declined. The social inventory of zinc ingots in China has increased, and the downstream enterprise start - up rate is average [15][16]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc industry in China shows a weak trend. Zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum prices. The zinc ore TC has stopped falling and stabilized [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices have increased. Both domestic and foreign inventories have risen rapidly, and the industrial situation is weak [17]. - **Strategy View**: The strategic stockpiling of battery enterprises may support the lead price in the short - term. It is necessary to observe the start - up of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices have declined. The prices of nickel ore are stable, and the price of nickel iron has increased [18]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of nickel is shrinking, and nickel prices are expected to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference ranges of 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai nickel and 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton for LME nickel [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices are in oscillatory operation. The inventory has decreased, and the supply and demand are marginally loose [20]. - **Strategy View**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference ranges of 380,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton for domestic tin and 48,000 - 53,000 US dollars/ton for LME tin [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate has increased. The production has increased, and the inventory has decreased [22]. - **Strategy View**: Affected by the export ban, the short - term spot shortage is expected to continue. It is necessary to be cautious about the increase of selling orders. The reference range for the 2605 contract is 164,000 - 180,000 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index has declined. The spot price in Shandong has increased, and the overseas price is stable. The inventory has increased [24]. - **Strategy View**: The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton for the AO2605 contract [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices have increased. The raw material prices have changed, and the inventory has increased [27]. - **Strategy View**: The supply pressure will be relieved, and the price has a strong bottom support. It is recommended to be bullish, with a reference range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy has increased. The inventory has changed, and the trading volume has increased [29]. - **Strategy View**: The cost has support, and the demand is expected to improve. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have declined. The inventory and trading volume have changed [32]. - **Strategy View**: The black series is in a bottom - game stage. It is expected to oscillate within a range with a weak center of gravity in the short - term. It is necessary to focus on the demand recovery and policy trends [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices have declined. Some steel enterprises in North China will implement emission reduction measures during important meetings [34]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas supply has recovered, and the demand is okay. The price is expected to oscillate weakly and stably. It is necessary to pay attention to domestic terminal demand and policy guidance [35]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke have declined. The spot prices have different changes, and the basis is positive [36]. - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, the upward catalysis of coking coal is weak. It may face a callback risk in March - May, but it may rise in the second half of 2026 [39]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices have declined, and the inventory has increased. Soda ash prices are stable, and the inventory has increased [40][42]. - **Strategy View**: Glass is expected to oscillate, with a reference range of 1,025 - 1,100 yuan/ton. Soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly and stably, with a reference range of 1,140 - 1,200 yuan/ton [41][43]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices have increased, and ferrosilicon prices have also risen slightly [44]. - **Strategy View**: The future market is mainly affected by the black market and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore supply and "dual - carbon" policies [45][46]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices have declined, and polysilicon prices have also decreased [48][50]. - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be weak. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [49][51]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices are in oscillatory operation. The start - up rates of tire enterprises are low, and the inventory has increased [53][54]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to trade according to the short - term trend of the disk and set stop - losses. It is also recommended to go long on NR and short on RU2609 [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil prices have declined, and the inventory data of related products have changed [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices have changed, and the MTO profit has increased [59]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices have changed, and the basis is negative [61]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short urea due to the expected negative fundamentals [62]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices and basis of pure benzene and styrene have changed. The supply and demand sides have different performances [63]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits gradually as the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired [64]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices have declined. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak [66]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply - demand situation is poor, and the fundamentals are weak [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices have declined. The supply and demand sides have changed, and the inventory has increased [68]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts. There is a risk of rebound [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices have declined. The supply and demand sides have changed, and the inventory has increased [70]. - **Strategy View**: The inventory cycle is about to end. It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [71]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices have declined. The load and inventory have changed [72]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil in the medium - term [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices have declined. The supply and demand sides are weak, and the inventory has changed [74]. - **Strategy View**: The PE valuation has room to decline, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices have declined. The supply and demand sides are weak, and the inventory pressure is high [76]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [78]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices have different changes. The actual supply pressure has been reduced [80]. - **Strategy View**: The spot price is expected to be weak, but there may be support for the far - month contracts [81]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices are mainly stable. The supply is normal, and the market digestion speed is okay [82]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term spot price decline is limited. It is recommended to wait and see or trade short - term [83]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The export and production data of soybeans in the US and Brazil are provided. The domestic soybean inventory has changed [84]. - **Strategy View**: The protein meal price may be bottoming out due to the increase in import costs [86]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The production, export, and inventory data of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia are provided. The domestic oil inventory has increased [87]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term soybean oil price is stronger. It is recommended to buy when the oil prices stop falling at low levels [88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The production data of sugar in India, Brazil, and Thailand are provided. The domestic import data are also given [89][90]. - **Strategy View**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the international sugar market. The domestic sugar price is suppressed by high inventory. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The US cotton export data and the domestic cotton inventory data are provided [92]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to buy on dips if the downstream start - up rate after the Spring Festival is good [93].

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices opened mixed, with the Dow Jones up by 0.38%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 saw declines of 0.24% and 0.04% respectively. As of the report, the Dow was up 0.27%, the Nasdaq down 0.84%, and the S&P 500 down 0.36% [1] - A total of 2,712 stocks advanced while 2,381 stocks declined [1] Company-Specific Developments - Nvidia's earnings report exceeded expectations but received a lukewarm response, leading to a stock price drop of over 3.6% [1] - Among popular Chinese concept stocks, the majority experienced declines, with BeiGene down 6.56%, Beike down 5.85%, Baidu down 4.83%, and Luckin Coffee down 4.71% [5][6] Commodity Market - On February 26, international silver prices continued to decline, with COMEX silver futures dropping over 5% at one point, and spot silver down over 3%. As of the report, COMEX silver futures were down 4.6% and spot silver down 2.55% [9] - Gold prices also saw a slight drop, with COMEX gold futures down over 1% [9] - WTI crude oil fell nearly 3%, while Brent crude oil dropped over 2% [11] Geopolitical Developments - The latest round of US-Iran negotiations began in Geneva, focusing on nuclear issues, with Iran expressing a willingness to discuss sanctions relief and nuclear rights [14] - The negotiations are at a critical stage, with potential for a temporary or phased agreement to ease regional tensions, but failure to resolve core differences could lead to a breakdown in diplomatic efforts and increased military risks [15]

Group 1 - The company reported total revenue of approximately HKD 33.5 million for the six months ending December 31, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 54.4% [1] - The increase in revenue is primarily attributed to the successful completion of several large solar power generation system projects during the period [1] - The company recorded a loss attributable to shareholders of approximately HKD 27.8 million, compared to a loss of about HKD 21.6 million in the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The board of directors decided not to declare an interim dividend for the six months ending December 31, 2025, consistent with the previous year [1] - The significant loss in comprehensive income attributable to shareholders is mainly due to geopolitical factors causing shortages in critical systems and chips related to data centers, which has hindered the development of the smart city industry [1] - The company's smart city solutions business experienced a notable decrease in revenue and operational performance [1]

Macro News - The UK government has expanded its sanctions list against Russian entities, which now includes Chinese entities. The Chinese Foreign Ministry expressed strong dissatisfaction with this unilateral sanction, emphasizing that normal Sino-Russian cooperation should not be disrupted. China will take necessary measures to protect its legitimate rights and interests [1] - The U.S. Trade Representative, Katherine Tai, stated that the U.S. will continue its investigation into China's compliance with the Phase One trade agreement and may impose tariffs. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce urged the U.S. to view the implementation of the agreement objectively and rationally, and to avoid shifting blame or creating conflicts. China is willing to work with the U.S. to focus on existing economic and trade consensus and explore mutual interests [1] Institutional Views - After the Spring Festival, gold prices have shown a fluctuating trend, with international prices around $5,200 and domestic prices around 1,150 yuan. The macroeconomic environment has improved post-holiday, leading to a rebound in global stock markets, which has put pressure on gold prices. However, geopolitical factors continue to support gold prices [1] - On February 25, the U.S. Treasury announced sanctions against over 30 entities, oil tankers, and individuals to combat what it termed Iran's "illegal oil sales" and its production of ballistic missiles and drones. Technically, attention should be paid to the $5,200 level for London gold, indicating a battle between bulls and bears [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Philippines is facing a severe energy crisis, primarily due to the depletion of the Malampaya gas field, which supplies about 40% of the electricity for Luzon Island. The country is urged to collaborate with China to develop the Recto Bank gas field as a potential solution to this crisis [1][3][10]. Group 1: Current Energy Situation - The Malampaya gas field is nearing depletion, leading to significant concerns about electricity supply and rising costs for both households and industries [6][10]. - The new gas field discovered, named "Malampaya East 1," is considered too small to fill the gap left by the Malampaya gas field's decline [15][17]. - The Philippines' energy demand continues to rise, making the situation increasingly urgent [17]. Group 2: Proposed Solutions - PXP Energy's chairman, Panfilo Lacson, advocates for collaboration with China to develop the Recto Bank gas field, emphasizing the need for experienced partners due to the high costs and technical requirements of such projects [19][21][31]. - The estimated cost to develop the Recto Bank gas field is around $6 billion, which PXP Energy cannot afford alone [29]. Group 3: Geopolitical Considerations - The potential collaboration with China is complicated by geopolitical issues, particularly regarding China's sovereignty claims over the South China Sea [45][49]. - The Philippines must recognize China's claims and approach the partnership with a genuine willingness to cooperate to move forward [51][58]. - Successful energy cooperation could lead to mutual benefits, including economic development and lower energy costs for the Philippines [54][60].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the near term, the stock index is expected to oscillate strongly supported by the policy - favorable expectations of the "Two Sessions", and long - term long positions in stock index futures are recommended to be held [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks in the short term, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Copper prices are pushed up by recent macro - favorable factors, but the continuous accumulation of global copper inventories suppresses prices, so short - term copper prices are expected to oscillate [1]. - The non - ferrous metal sector is boosted by recent macro - favorable factors, but the large accumulation of domestic aluminum inventories may drag down aluminum prices, and short - term aluminum prices are expected to oscillate [1]. - The deadlock in the US - Iran negotiation causes concerns about Iran's zinc ore supply, which supports zinc prices in the short term. After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the resumption of work and production of downstream enterprises [1]. - Due to the landslide of the tailings of the QMB project in the Indonesian IMIP Park and the plan to revoke its environmental license, and the reduction of the nickel ore quota in the Weda Bay nickel mine, there are still concerns about nickel ore supply. Short - term nickel prices are expected to run strongly, but the high global nickel inventory may still suppress prices in the medium - to - long term [1]. - The raw material prices of stainless steel remain firm, steel mills' maintenance and production cuts increase in February, and social inventories rise slightly. Affected by the supply - side disturbances in Indonesia, stainless steel futures are expected to oscillate strongly. After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the demand recovery [1]. - The Trump administration plans to use an AI model to price key minerals, which boosts the sector. Although the long - term trend of tin prices remains unchanged, investors are advised to pay attention to risk management and profit protection in the short - term high - volatility situation [1]. - The uncertainty of tariff policies and the tense geopolitical situation between the US and Iran support precious metals, but the intensifying internal differences of the Federal Reserve may cause short - term fluctuations. Gold prices are expected to oscillate within a range, and silver prices are expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - The new Trump tariff policy and the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East are beneficial to platinum and palladium at the macro level, but after the short - term catch - up, the price rhythm may still fluctuate. It is recommended to go long at low prices with a light position [1]. - For industrial silicon, production increases in the northwest and decreases in the southwest, and the production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon decline in December [1]. - For polysilicon, there is strong demand for energy storage and battery exports, and there are disturbances at the mine end [1]. - For lithium carbonate, the spot has not fully recovered. Observe the spot start - up situation around the Lantern Festival, and it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading [1]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, the spot has not fully recovered. Observe the spot start - up situation around the Lantern Festival, and it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading. Look for profit - taking opportunities for the basis positions established before the Spring Festival [1]. - For iron ore, the upward pressure is obvious, and it is not recommended to chase long at this position [1]. - For silicon manganese and silicon iron, the short - term supply and demand are weak, but policy benefits and cost support are positive for prices [1]. - For glass and soda ash, soda ash follows glass. In the medium term, the supply and demand are more relaxed, and prices are under pressure [1]. - For coking coal and coke, the black - metal spot market continues the off - season characteristics before the Spring Festival. In the next two weeks, the market can expect the prosperity of the peak season, which depends on the market risk preference and domestic macro - guidance. In the medium - to - long term, the market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract. It is recommended that the industry establish positive cash - and - carry arbitrage positions when the market rallies, and wait and see for unilateral trading [1]. - For palm oil, the production and exports of Malaysian palm oil decreased from February 1 - 20, and the market is expected to oscillate after the rebound during the holiday [1]. - For soybean oil, it may open higher affected by the US soybean oil, but there is no new driving force for the time being, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - For rapeseed oil, it rose slightly during the holiday, and attention should be paid to the EPA's bio - diesel decision and the anti - dumping arbitration announcement of Canadian rapeseed in China [1]. - For cotton, the new domestic production is expected to be strong, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream start - up is at a low level, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, with rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driving force", and attention should be paid to relevant policies, planting intentions, weather, and peak - season demand [1]. - For sugar, there is a global surplus and an increase in domestic new - crop supply. The short - side consensus is relatively consistent. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but there is no continuous driving force in the short - term fundamentals, and attention should be paid to the change in the capital side [1]. - For corn, the progress of grain sales at the grass - roots level is fast, and the port and channel inventories are low. Corn prices are expected to oscillate strongly during the grain - selling period. After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the impact of the sale of ground - stored grain, and also to the release of policy grains, import restrictions, and Trump's visit to China [1]. - For soybean meal, the soybean meal market has been strong recently, but in the context of the global large - supply pattern, the short - term unilateral price is expected to oscillate within a range. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade dynamics and the change in Brazilian basis [1]. - For softwood pulp, there is no obvious positive news during the Spring Festival, and the previous supply - side positive factors have basically faded. It is expected to oscillate between 5200 - 5400. Attention should be paid to the port inventory after the Spring Festival [1]. - For logs, the spot price has risen, the arrival volume in February has decreased, and the external - market quotation is expected to rise, so the futures price has an upward driving force [1]. - For live pigs, the spot price has gradually stabilized recently, and the demand support and the unsold slaughter weight indicate that the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. - For fuel oil, OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the US - Iran negotiation is still uncertain, and the commodity - market sentiment is positive with an increase in capital risk preference. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows crude oil [1]. - For asphalt, the raw - material cost support is strong, the commodity - market sentiment is positive, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, the "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma瑞 crude oil is sufficient, with high asphalt profits [1]. - For natural rubber, the downstream demand will gradually recover after the Spring Festival, the cost of butadiene has strong support, the profit of private butadiene rubber plants is still in a loss, the inventory of BD/BR is expected to accumulate, the short - term futures price is expected to oscillate widely, and there is an upward expectation for butadiene rubber in the medium - to - long term [1]. - For PTA, Asian aromatics are affected by geopolitics, some overseas PTA factories face operational pressure due to poor profits, and the supply is expected to tighten from March to May [1]. - For naphtha, the production profit margin of naphtha cracking has declined, and the demand is continuously weak [1]. - For ethylene, Wanhua Chemical has restarted its 1.2 - million - ton/year cracking unit, and BASF's new 1 - million - ton/year cracking unit in Zhanjiang is expected to supply ethylene from February [1]. - For short - fiber, the price continues to fluctuate closely following the cost [1]. - For energy, geopolitics and Trump's tariffs disrupt the market. The production economic situation of styrene plants is stable, and the profit margin exceeds the variable - cost break - even point. The demand is expected to be affected [1]. - For methanol, the expected import volume is likely to decrease due to the Iranian situation, but there is obvious downstream negative feedback. The downstream MTO leading units are shut down, and some enterprises reduce production. The upstream inventory is generally low, and the downstream inventory is generally medium to high [2]. - For crude oil, it oscillates strongly, the price returns to a reasonable range, the demand is flat during the Spring Festival, and geopolitical factors drive the price up [2]. - For PVC, the global production capacity will be less in 2026, the differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the elimination of PVC production capacity, and the future expectation is optimistic. However, the current fundamentals are poor, and the export rush has slowed down [2]. - For liquid chlorine, the macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, the market trades based on fundamentals again. The fundamentals are weak, the absolute price is at a low level, and the spot price has risen slightly with a small subsidy from liquid chlorine [2]. - For LPG, the CP price in February has risen, and the purchase in March is still relatively tight. The premium of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict has rebounded, and the LPG price is strong after the Spring Festival. The overseas cold - wave driving logic is gradually weakening, and the basis is expected to repair and expand. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the profit is expected to seasonally recover. The short - term demand for LPG is bearish, which suppresses the upward movement of the futures price. The port inventory is decreasing, but the domestic civil gas is sufficient, showing a divergence between propane and LPG [2]. - For aviation fuel, the price increase is generally stable, airlines are still cautious about trial resumption of flights, and airlines are expected to have a strong willingness to stop the price decline and raise prices after the off - season in March [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views - The Asian aromatics market shows a structural trend affected by geopolitical factors. The speculative sentiment in the Asian PX market has rebounded, and the PX price increased by $20 during the holiday due to the rise in crude oil prices. The polyester market has some factories facing cash - flow issues, and overseas PTA factories are under operational pressure due to poor profits. The domestic PX market has sufficient supply, but there will be a major turnaround season from March to May, which may lead to supply tightening. The PTA in China maintains high - level production, and domestic demand has declined. The tension in the Middle East may cause short - term energy price fluctuations. For ethylene glycol, the situation in Iran is uncertain, and the tariff increase may impact the global financial and trade environment. The production profit margin of naphtha cracking has declined, and the price of ethylene glycol is waiting at a low level. [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 493.3 yuan/barrel on February 24, 2026, to 488.3 yuan/barrel on February 25, 2026, a decrease of 5.00 yuan/barrel [3]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC decreased by 3.66 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio increased by 0.0040; PTA主力期价 dropped by 40.0 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 remained unchanged at 5285 yuan/ton; 现货加工费 decreased by 12.5 yuan/ton; 盘面加工费 decreased by 12.5 yuan/ton; 主力基差 increased by 11.0; PTA仓单数量 remained at 113652 [3]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 increased by 10.0 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha remained unchanged at (198.94) yuan/ton; MEG内盘 increased by 22.0 yuan/ton; 主力基差 increased by 7.0 [3]. - **PX**: CFR中国PX decreased from 933 to 929, and PX - naphtha spread decreased by 3 [3]. Industry Chain and Product Information - **开工情况**: PX开工率 remained at 87.18%; PTA开工率 increased from 74.58% to 76.40%, an increase of 1.82%; MEG开工率 remained at 62.37%; 聚酯负荷 increased from 76.36% to 76.46%, an increase of 0.10% [3]. - **涤纶长丝**: POY150D/48F remained at 7080; POY现金流 decreased by 7.0; FDY150D/96F remained at 7295; FDY现金流 decreased by 7.0; DTY150D/48F increased by 5.0; DTY现金流 decreased by 2.0; 长丝产销 increased from 3% to 17%, an increase of 14% [3]. - **涤纶短纤**: 1.4D直纺涤短 decreased by 10; 涤短现金流 decreased by 17.0; 短纤产销 increased from 6% to 57%, an increase of 51% [3]. - **聚酯切片**: 半光切片 decreased by 20.0; 切片现金流 decreased by 27.0; 切片产销 increased from 1% to 15%, an increase of 14% [3]. Device Maintenance - An East - China 2.5 - million - ton PTA device is expected to stop production on February 10, 2026, and the restart time is undetermined [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Asian aromatics show a structural trend affected by geopolitical factors. The speculative sentiment in the Asian PX market has rebounded, and the PX price increased by $20 during the holiday due to the rise in crude oil prices. Some polyester factories are facing cash flow issues, and overseas PTA factories are under operational pressure due to poor profits. The domestic PX market has sufficient supply, but supply is expected to tighten from March to May. The spread between PX and naphtha has recovered to $310. The domestic PTA maintains high operation, and the domestic demand has declined. The short - term energy price may fluctuate due to the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The profit of bottle chips is expanding, and the profit of short fibers is expected to expand [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Index Changes - PTA spot price increased from 5130 to 5285, a change of 155; MEG inner - market price increased from 3648 to 3670, a change of 22; PTA closing price decreased from 5352 to 5312, a change of - 40; MEG closing price increased from 3737 to 3747, a change of 10; 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6720 to 6710, a change of - 10; short - fiber basis increased from 16 to 24, a change of 8; 3 - 4 spread decreased from - 66 to - 98, a change of - 32; polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6; 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical spread decreased from 1420 to 1410, a change of - 10; East China water bottle chip price decreased from 6338 to 6307, a change of - 31; hot - filling polyester bottle chip price decreased from 6338 to 6307, a change of - 31; carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price decreased from 6438 to 6407, a change of - 31; outer - market water bottle chip price remained at 850; bottle - chip spot processing fee decreased from 730 to 559, a change of - 171; T32S pure polyester yarn price increased from 10750 to 10800, a change of 50; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 4030 to 4090, a change of 60; polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price increased from 16800 to 16900, a change of 100; cotton 328 price increased from 16205 to 16505, a change of 300; polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1219 to 1212, a change of - 7; primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained at 7295; hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 487 to 347, a change of - 140; primary low - melting - point short - fiber price remained at 7895 [2] 2. Market Conditions - **Short - fiber market**: The main short - fiber futures dropped 66 to 6722. The prices of polyester staple fiber production factories were stable with a slight increase, while the prices of traders decreased. After the Spring Festival, most downstream enterprises were not yet in operation, and the on - site transactions were limited. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - gloss natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6600 - 6820 yuan for cash on delivery, tax - included self - pick - up; in the North China market, it was 6720 - 6940 yuan for cash on delivery, tax - included delivery; in the Fujian market, it was 6640 - 6900 yuan for cash on delivery, tax - included delivery [2] - **Bottle - chip market**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 6330 - 6400 yuan/ton, and the average price decreased by 35 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The PTA and bottle - chip futures prices were weakly operating. The supply side's offers were stable with a slight decline, and the market's spot supply was a bit tight. The downstream terminal demand had not fully recovered, and the market negotiation focus had slightly shifted down [2] 3. Load and Production and Sales Data - Direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 86.77% to 88.84%, a change of 2.07%; polyester staple fiber production and sales decreased from 56.00% to 51.00%, a change of - 5.00%; polyester yarn starting rate (weekly) increased from 70.00% to 70.32%, a change of 0.32%; recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 55.44% to 54.81%, a change of - 0.63% [3]

中辉能化观点 尿素 ★ 谨慎追涨 下行但仍处同期高位。需求端弱现实强预期，冬储需求走弱，复合肥开工高位下滑， 工业需求相对稳定；尿素及化肥（硫酸铵、氯化铵）出口相对较好，近期印度新一 轮尿素招标开启。社库持续去库（库存大幅低于去年同期）。在"出口配额制"及 "保供稳价"背景下，作为重要农资，尿素上有顶下有底。整体来看，尿素基本面 偏宽松，但市场存春季用肥预期及出口交易逻辑，需求端存支撑。节后延续震荡偏 强走势。 2 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 中东地缘扰动，油价高位震荡，关注美伊谈判进展。地缘：地缘政治主导 油价，美伊谈判达成协议难度较大，地缘落地前油价偏强；核心驱动：供 | | 原油 | 高位震荡 | 给仍偏过剩，3 月 1 日 OPEC+将举行线上会议，消息称 OPEC+将于 4 月 | | ★ | | 继续增产；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及中东地缘进展。 | | | | 美伊谈判尚未落地，跟随成本端油价高位震荡。成本端油价短期受地缘扰 | | LPG | 震荡 | 动波动加剧，地缘落地前成本端利好； ...