Core Viewpoint - The gold market has become a focal point for global investors amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and fluctuating monetary policies, with key factors influencing gold prices identified to assist investors in navigating the complex economic landscape [1]. Factors Driving Gold Price Increases - The depreciation of the US dollar reduces the holding cost of gold, attracting global buyers [3]. - Federal Reserve interest rate cuts lower the opportunity cost of holding gold, leading to increased investment in this non-yielding asset [3]. - Heightened geopolitical tensions, such as wars and banking crises, drive safe-haven investments into gold [3]. - Economic recession or increased uncertainty prompts investors to prefer gold as a safe asset [3]. - Rising inflation expectations position gold as an effective hedge against inflation, drawing in more funds [3]. - Increased demand for safe-haven assets due to unexpected events like pandemics or natural disasters [3]. - Global monetary policy easing, including rate cuts or quantitative easing, releases liquidity that partially flows into the gold market [3]. - The onset of financial crises enhances the appeal of gold's value preservation function [3]. - Strong demand during market consumption peaks from jewelry, industrial, and investment sectors boosts gold prices [3]. - Weak US economic indicators, such as employment and inflation, raise concerns about the economy, thereby increasing gold demand [3]. Factors Leading to Gold Price Declines - The appreciation of the US dollar attracts capital inflows, diminishing gold's appeal [4]. - Federal Reserve interest rate hikes increase the returns on risk-free assets, leading to decreased demand for gold [4]. - Easing geopolitical tensions reduce safe-haven buying pressure on gold [5]. - Strong economic recovery raises risk appetite, diverting funds to higher-yielding assets like stocks and real estate [5]. - Declining inflation expectations weaken the demand for gold as an inflation hedge [5]. - Reduced safe-haven sentiment due to diminished impacts from pandemics or disasters leads to a rational market return [5]. - Tightening monetary policies, including rate hikes or balance sheet reductions, withdraw liquidity and pressure gold prices [5]. - Resolution of financial crises leads to capital exiting gold investments [5]. - An oversupply of gold, such as central bank sales or increased mining output, can suppress prices [5]. - Positive US economic indicators strengthen expectations for interest rate hikes, negatively impacting gold prices [5]. Gold Market Outlook for 2025 - The international situation remains volatile, with the Federal Reserve slowing its rate hike pace while inflation data stays concerning, and pressures in the European and American banking systems are not fully resolved, indicating that gold still holds certain investment value [7]. Key Indicators for Gold Investors - Monitoring Federal Reserve policy changes, including interest rate decisions and FOMC meeting minutes [8]. - Keeping an eye on US employment and inflation data, such as NFP, CPI, and PCE [8]. - Observing significant global geopolitical events, including wars, terrorist attacks, and sudden financial incidents [8]. - Tracking central bank gold purchasing behaviors, particularly from emerging market central banks [8]. - Gold is viewed as a "hard currency" that reflects deep dynamics within the global economic and financial system, with investment strategies suggested for both conservative and aggressive investors [8].

Group 1 - International oil prices and spot gold have surged significantly due to disturbances in the Middle East, with crude oil prices rising by 8% and spot gold reaching $3420 per ounce [1] - Brent crude oil futures and WTI crude oil futures both increased by over 8%, with WTI reaching a high of $74.35 per barrel, the highest since February 3, and Brent hitting $75.28 per barrel, the highest since April 2 [1] - Domestic energy futures opened sharply higher, with fuel and crude oil futures hitting the limit up, and low-sulfur fuel oil rising by over 8% [1] Group 2 - Analysts maintain a positive outlook on gold's future performance, citing uncertainties from tariffs and geopolitical factors that may drive safe-haven investments into gold, alongside ongoing central bank gold purchases and a long-term cycle of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - In contrast, analysts are cautious about oil prices in the second half of the year, noting that while recent market sentiment has improved, long-term oil prices are expected to trend downward due to rising downstream product inventories indicating short-term oversupply [3] - The geopolitical situation is likely to provide only temporary support for prices, with Brent crude expected to face resistance above $70 per barrel, lacking the momentum for a sustained breakthrough to new highs [3]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel统计全国110家洗煤厂样本：开工率 57.36%较上期降3.23%；日均产量47.79万吨减3.67万吨；原煤 库存336.13万吨增8.72万吨；精煤库存251.47万吨增6.41万 吨。评：炼焦煤市场延续偏弱下行，煤焦基本面变化不大，依 然是偏弱的格局，铁水见顶回落，钢材淡季逐步到来，成材消 费会季节性走弱，后续或形成负反馈继续打压原料价格，但焦 煤绝对价格已跌至近年来最低水平，部分煤矿已陷入亏损，继 续下跌空间有限，后续下跌斜率或将放缓，继续缓慢探底。 【短评-原油】据央视新闻消息，当地时间6月12日，美国 总统特朗普表示，以色列对伊朗的袭击"很有可能发生"，但 他不会称之为"迫在眉睫的袭击"。 特朗普表示，他更倾向于 避免与伊朗发生冲突，并就其核计划达成和平解决方案；美国 驻以色列大使赫卡比12日在接受媒体采访时表示，如果没有美 国的批准，以色列不太可能攻击伊朗；伊朗高级官员:美国人员 撤离并不是(受到)威胁的信号。评：市场在等待伊朗和美国6月 15日恢复谈判。整体上，地缘政治，原油低库存及美国产量增 速下降对短期油价有支撑。长期关注OPEC+产 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - PP2509 rose 0.22% to close at 6,969 yuan/ton. On the supply side, this week's PP production increased by 2.36% month-on-month to 757,700 tons, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 1.63% month-on-month to 78.64%. On the demand side, the average operating rate of PP downstream industries decreased by 0.04% month-on-month to 49.87%. In terms of inventory, this week's PP commercial inventory decreased by 4.04% month-on-month to 786,000 tons, with little pressure. Recently, with the launch of new production capacity and the restart of shutdown devices, the pressure on the supply side of the PP industry has increased. It is the off-season for downstream industries, the demand continues to be weak, and the downstream operating rate maintains a slight downward trend. Overseas demand declines seasonally, making it difficult to ease the domestic supply-demand contradiction. Recently, international oil prices have strengthened due to macro-positive factors and the deterioration of geopolitical situations, enhancing the cost support for oil-based production. In the short term, PP2509 is expected to show a volatile trend. Pay attention to the support around 6,930 and the resistance around 7,020 on the daily K-line [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polypropylene was 6,969 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the closing price of the January contract was 6,918 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 6,909 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the closing price of the September contract was 6,969 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. The trading volume of polypropylene (PP) was 208,464 lots, a decrease of 15,731 lots; the open interest was 490,786 lots, a decrease of 10,626 lots. The buy order volume of the top 20 holders was 423,197 lots, a decrease of 10,118 lots; the sell order volume was 491,914 lots, a decrease of 6,769 lots; the net buy order volume was -68,717 lots, a decrease of 3,349 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity of polypropylene PP was 7,560 lots, an increase of 2,500 lots [2]. Spot Market - The CFR Southeast Asia middle price of PP (fiber/injection molding) was 904 US dollars/ton; the CFR Far East middle price of PP (homopolymer injection molding) was 859 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton. The duty-paid self-pickup price of PP (drawn grade) in Zhejiang was 7,140 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The CFR China price of propylene was 751 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR price of propane in the Far East was 560 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton. The FOB price of naphtha in Singapore was 61.66 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.25 US dollars/barrel; the CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 571.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton [2]. Industry Situation - The operating rate of polypropylene (PP) in petrochemical enterprises was 77.01%, an increase of 1.57 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The average operating rate of polypropylene was 50.01%, a decrease of 0.28 percentage points; the operating rate of plastic weaving was 44.7%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points; the operating rate of injection molding was 56.09%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points; the operating rate of BOPP was 60.41%, an increase of 0.65 percentage points; the operating rate of PP pipes was 36.13%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points; the operating rate of tape master rolls was 50.74%, unchanged; the operating rate of PP non-woven fabrics was 37.03%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points; the operating rate of CPP was 57.38%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The 20-day historical volatility of polypropylene was 7.41%, a decrease of 2.41 percentage points; the 40-day historical volatility was 9.09%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at-the-money put options for polypropylene was 10.12%, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points; the implied volatility of at-the-money call options was 10.12%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From June 6th to 12th, the domestic polypropylene production was 757,700 tons, a 2.36% increase from the previous period; the average capacity utilization rate was 78.64%, a 1.63% increase from the previous period. - From June 6th to 12th, the average operating rate of domestic polypropylene downstream industries decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 49.87%. - As of June 11th, the total commercial inventory of polypropylene in China was 786,000 tons, a 4.04% decrease from the previous period [2].

若后市市场上破3399.00点位则可介入多单，上方目标可看向3409.00-3419.00美元/盎司。（止损为5.000美元/盎 司空间） 现货白银市场 小时图目前处于震荡阶段，短线15分钟图周期处于震荡阶段，震荡区间36.060-36.400，操作上可在这个区间内 高抛低吸。 若市场价格跌破36.060美元/盎司的支撑位，可择机建立空单头寸，并将下方目标价位设定为35.700-35.300美元/ 盎司。 亚洲早盘策略： 现货黄金市场 小时图目前处于主升情绪，短线15分钟图处于震荡阶段，震荡区间3372.00-3399.00，操作上可在这个区间高抛 低吸。 若后市市场下破3372.00点位则可介入空单，下方目标可看向3362.00-3352.00美元/盎司。 若市场成功上破36.400美元/盎司的阻力位，则可果断跟进多单，上方目标价位有望触及36.800-37.200美元/盎 司。（止损为0.200美元/盎司空间） 周四因市场投资者对美联储降息的预期升温，现货黄金市场再收阳线，昨日市场最高至3398.97美元/盎司，最终 收盘于3386.66美元/盎司。 对于后市热点，需要继续关注贸易关税情况，同时要密切关注 ...

受中东局势的紧张情绪影响，原油价格大幅走高。美国减少驻伊拉克 使馆的工作人员，英国海军也罕见地向海员发出警告，称中东地区的紧张 局势升级可能影响航运。当前尚不明确后期美伊之间是否会爆发直接冲 突，彭博报道，第六轮伊朗美国核谈判将于本周日举行，这表明短期两国 仍以协商为主。在美伊和谈有定论之前，油价可能都将延续偏强震荡。 板块逻辑： 开工数据公布，化工产业链出现了普遍的开工抬升。纯苯、苯乙烯开 工临近五年偏高水平，PTA和MEG开工则升至五年同期最高，PP和PE的开工 周度也小幅抬升；另一方面下游则出现了普遍的开工下滑，PE和纯苯的下 游综合开工率，聚酯及其终端织造、印染开工率均环比下行。化工供增需 减，格局偏弱。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-06-13 地缘扰动油价，化⼯供增需减格局依旧 偏弱 原油：地缘风险升温，油价波动加剧 LPG：成本端支撑增加，PG跟随原油反弹 沥青：原油走高沥青裂解价差继续回落 高硫燃油：高硫燃油冲高后回落 低硫燃油：低硫燃油期价跟随原油震荡 甲醇：港口库存延续偏累，甲醇震荡 尿素：供强需弱格局未改变，盘面弱势运行 乙二醇 ...

隔夜美国5月CPI年率录得2.4%,核心CPI录得2.8%，同比环比均低于预期，特朗普再次呼吁降息,美元回 落,金价小幅上涨。但中美会谈达成共识框架消息令市场风险偏好继续向好限制金价涨幅。各方关税谈判将 继续主导市场,俄乌以及中东等地缘局势持续紧张,金价震荡中维持回调买入思路,白银破位后打开上方空 间。今晚关注美国PPI和周度初请失业金人数。 ★美国5月CPI环比上涨0.1%,不及预期的0.2%,4月增幅为0.2%;CPI同比上涨2.4%,符合预期,4月为 2.3%; 扣除波动较大的食品和能源核心CPI环比0.1%，不及预期的0.2%,较4月的0.2%有所放缓；同比2.8%, 不及预期的2.9%，4月为2.8%，保持在2021年3月以来的最低水平。 ★中东局势—1特朗普对达成伊核协议信心减弱。②伊朗防长:如果核谈判失败并与美国发生冲突,伊朗将 打击该地区的美军基地。③美方授权美军家属可自愿撤离中东,缩减在伊拉克的美国使团规模。④据悉伊美 周末举行第六轮核谈判举行的可能性越来越小。 ★关税—()欧盟希望贸易谈判时间延长至特朗普设定暂缓期限之后。②贝森特:只要在谈判中表现出"城 意",特朗普政府愿意将目前的90天 ...

全球市场再现低迷！ 那么，究竟发生了什么？分析人士认为，变数主要来自两个方面。 一是关税。美国总统特朗普周三表示，他将在未来几周向主要经济体发送信函，设定他计划的贸易关税，这打 消了在7月9日与其政府达成协议的最后期限前达成更多贸易协议的希望。日本首相石破茂表示，他不会仓促与 美国达成损害国家利益的贸易协议，但他欢迎与特朗普在将举行的峰会前取得的任何进展。 二是中东。据多位知情人士透露，尽管特朗普正在与德黑兰就一项旨在削减其核计划的外交协议进行深入讨 论，但以色列仍考虑在未来几天对伊朗采取军事行动。一位国防官员透露，由于"地区紧张局势加剧"，美国国 务院下令非紧急状态的政府官员撤离伊拉克，五角大楼也已授权军人家属自愿离开中东各地。 避险情绪再度显现 今天，全球市场再度进入到避险情绪主导的阶段。欧洲股市全线杀跌，美股期指亦大幅下行，标普500VIX指 数则明显反弹。亚太股市收盘亦大多出现杀跌行情，恒生科技指数跌超2%，恒生指数跌1.36%，中国稀土跌超 14%，小鹏汽车跌超6%，快手跌约6%。 与此同时， 美元指数失守98，为4月21日来首次，日内跌0.68%。日元兑美元涨超0.5%，领涨非美货 币。 虚拟币也 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三油价再现突破式反弹，其中 WTI 7 月合约收盘上涨 3.17 美元 | | | | 至 68.15 美元/桶，涨幅 4.88%。布伦特 8 月合约收盘上涨 2.90 美 | | | | 元至 69.77 美元/桶，涨幅 4.34%。SC2507 以 497.4 元/桶收盘，上 | | | | 涨 16.2 元/桶，涨幅为 3.37%。昨天凌晨突发，中东地缘动荡进一 | | | | 步加剧，油价凌晨大幅拉高。美媒称，美国防长下令美军家属可 | | | | 从中东各地自愿撤离。美国军方正在与国务院及其在该地区的盟 | | | | 友合作，"保持持续的战备状态"。EIA 数据，上周美国原油库存 | 震荡 | | 原油 | 下降，因炼油活动增加，推高汽油和馏分油库存。截至 6 月 6 日 | 偏强 | | | 当周，美国商业原油库存减少 360 万桶至 4.324 亿桶，此前市场 | | | | 预期为减少200万桶。当周俄克拉荷马州的库欣 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Global market shows a differentiated pattern, with the Fed's rate - cut expectations constrained by inflation resilience and the ECB hinting at the end of the easing cycle. The equity market is supported by loose funds, but external disturbances and volume - energy sustainability should be watched [3]. - Crude oil may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but its upside is limited in the long - term without major geopolitical impacts on supply [4]. - Gold is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation, and investors should pay attention to US CPI, PPI data, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting [5][6]. - Silver will maintain a high - level oscillation, and US inflation data will affect its short - term direction [7]. - Most chemical products are expected to have a weak or bearish short - term trend, with supply - demand contradictions and inventory changes being important influencing factors [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16]. - Rubber may have a weak rebound after the short - term negative factors are realized, but it is still affected by the oversupply situation [17][18]. - Methanol's futures price is in an oscillation range, and the progress of Sino - US negotiations and macro sentiment should be watched [19]. - Agricultural products show different trends. Corn may oscillate in the short - term, peanuts may decline slightly but have limited downside, cotton may be strong in the short - term, and the prices of other agricultural products are also affected by supply - demand and seasonal factors [20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31]. - Metal prices have different trends. Copper may touch the bubble price line, aluminum may oscillate in a range, alumina shows a weak adjustment, and other metals are also affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and global economic situation [32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - Black metal products' prices also vary. Stainless steel may oscillate at a low level, and steel products like rebar and hot - rolled coil can be considered for light - position long positions at low prices, while iron ore and coal may oscillate in the short - term [41][42][43][44][45][46] Summary by Industry Macro - Index - Market analysis: Global markets are differentiated. The Fed's rate - cut expectations are constrained, and the ECB hints at the end of the easing cycle. The central bank maintains a "broad credit, stable currency" policy. The equity market is supported by loose funds, with capital flowing to non - banking finance and technology sectors. Index futures show short - covering and a decline in the PCR indicator [3]. - Reference view: Pay attention to Sino - US negotiations and the Fed's policy implementation. Short - term holding along the 5 - day moving average is advisable. Be wary of the risk of insufficient volume energy [3]. Crude Oil - Macro and geopolitics: The second - round Sino - US negotiations reach a "framework agreement in principle," and the oil price may oscillate strongly. Focus on the key level of $65 per barrel for WTI [4]. - Market analysis: OPEC lowers global demand growth forecasts, and US policies cause concerns about demand. Although US crude oil inventories decline, refined product inventories increase. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increase supply uncertainty, and OPEC+ plans to increase production [4]. - Reference view: Watch whether WTI can break through $65 per barrel in the short - term. In the long - term, the upside is limited without major geopolitical impacts [4]. Gold - Macro and geopolitics: US economic resilience pressures short - term gold prices, but multiple factors support it in the long - term. Policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks limit the downside space, and the Fed's policy also affects the price [5]. - Market analysis: Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold futures warehouse receipts are stable with a slight increase. The spot price has a discount compared to the futures price [6]. - Operation suggestion: Gold is expected to oscillate. Investors should watch US CPI, PPI data, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting [6]. Silver - Market price: On June 11, the international spot silver price oscillated narrowly [7]. - Market analysis: Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver futures warehouse receipts increased significantly. Global economic growth expectations are lowered, and trade tensions ease, reducing the safe - haven demand for silver [7]. - Operation suggestion: Silver will maintain a high - level oscillation. Pay attention to US inflation data [7]. Chemicals PTA - Spot information: The East China spot price decreased, and the basis is positive [8]. - Market analysis: Oil price fluctuations affect PTA costs. PTA device maintenance and restart coexist, with an overall increase in the operating rate and a decrease in inventory days. Polyester and textile loads decline, and weak orders may intensify supply - demand contradictions [8]. - Reference view: It may oscillate bearishly in the short - term [8]. Ethylene Glycol - Spot information: The East China spot price is flat, and the basis is positive [9]. - Market analysis: The supply side shows a slight decline in the overall operating rate and an increase in coal - based production. Demand is weak due to the off - season. Inventories in the East China main port increase, and future arrivals may limit the upside [9]. - Reference view: The price may be under pressure and oscillate in the short - term [9]. PVC - Spot information: The East China 5 - type PVC spot price increased, and the ethylene - calcium price difference decreased [10][11]. - Market analysis: The production capacity utilization rate increased, but downstream demand is still weak. Inventories decreased. The futures price oscillated at a low level without significant fundamental improvement [10][11]. - Reference view: The fundamentals are weak, and the futures price will oscillate at a low level [11]. PP - Spot market: The spot prices in different regions fluctuate slightly [12]. - Market analysis: The production capacity utilization rate increased, and production volume rose. Demand is in the off - season, and downstream orders decreased. Inventories of production enterprises increased. The futures price oscillated at a low level [12]. - Reference view: Demand is weak, and the futures price may oscillate at a low level [13]. Plastic - Spot market: The spot prices in different regions have different changes [14]. - Market analysis: The production capacity utilization rate increased slightly. The downstream average operating rate changed little. Inventories of production enterprises increased. The futures price may oscillate [14]. - Reference view: The fundamentals are weak, and the futures price may oscillate in the short - term [14]. Soda Ash - Spot information: The heavy - soda prices in different regions are stable [15]. - Market analysis: The overall operating rate and production volume increased. Factory inventories increased slightly, and social inventories decreased. Demand is average, and the market lacks new drivers [15]. - Reference view: The futures price is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [15]. Glass - Spot information: The 5mm glass prices in different regions are stable [16]. - Market analysis: The operating rate and production volume decreased slightly. Inventories increased, and demand is weak. The futures price may oscillate weakly in the short - term [16]. - Reference view: The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [16]. Rubber - Market price: The prices of different types of rubber and raw materials are provided [17]. - Market analysis: Sino - US trade negotiations and typhoons affect the price. The supply is abundant as domestic and Southeast Asian rubber trees are in the tapping season. Downstream tire operating rates decline, and trade - war concerns suppress demand, but there is a rebound expectation after the negative factors are realized [17]. - Reference view: Pay attention to downstream operating rates. It may start a weak rebound after short - term negative factors are realized [18]. Methanol - Spot information: The East China spot price increased, and prices in other regions vary [19]. - Market analysis: The futures price increased slightly. Port inventories increased. Supply pressure is high, and demand from MTO devices recovers, while traditional downstream demand is in the off - season [19]. - Reference view: The futures price is in an oscillation range. Watch Sino - US negotiations and macro sentiment [19]. Agricultural Products Corn - Spot information: Corn purchase prices in different regions are provided [20]. - Market analysis: Good weather in US corn - growing areas and Sino - US trade relations affect imports. The domestic market is in the transition period between old and new grains, with tight supply in the short - term. Wheat substitution and weather are key factors. Downstream demand is weak [20][21]. - Reference view: The corn futures price may oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan/ton in the short - term [21]. Peanut - Spot price: Peanut prices in different regions are provided [22]. - Market analysis: The domestic peanut planting area is expected to increase in 2025. The market is in the inventory - consumption period, with low imports and low inventory levels. Demand is in the off - season, but low inventories may support the price [22]. - Reference view: The peanut price may decline slightly in the short - term, but the downside is limited. Band - trading is advisable [22]. Cotton - Spot information: The Chinese cotton spot price index and Xinjiang cotton arrival price are provided [23]. - Market analysis: Sino - US relations ease, boosting the market. In the long - term, cotton supply is expected to be abundant. In the short - term, low imports and low commercial inventories support the price, but downstream demand is weak [23]. - Reference view: The cotton price may be strong in the short - term. Watch whether it can fill the previous gap [23]. Pig - Spot market: The average price of live pigs in major production and sales areas increased slightly [24]. - Market analysis: Farmers resist low - price sales, reducing supply. Demand is weak due to warm weather, and terminal consumption lacks improvement [24]. - Reference view: The live - pig futures price may oscillate weakly. Watch the slaughter situation [24]. Egg - Spot market: The national average egg price is stable [25]. - Market analysis: Farmers' enthusiasm for replenishing chickens decreases, and old - hen culling increases, supporting the price. Demand may increase in the tourism and catering industries during the summer vacation, but the plum - rain season suppresses consumption [25]. - Reference view: The egg futures price is undervalued. It is advisable to wait and see [25]. Rapeseed Meal - Spot market: The rapeseed meal price in Fangchenggang increased [27]. - Market analysis: Domestic and near - term imported rapeseed supplies are abundant, while far - term imports are tight. Demand is weak due to a small price difference with soybean meal and the off - season. Watch Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations [27]. - Reference view: Watch the performance of rapeseed meal futures at the upper pressure level [27]. Rapeseed Oil - Spot market: The rapeseed oil price in Fangchenggang is stable [28]. - Market analysis: Domestic and near - term imported rapeseed supplies are abundant, while far - term imports are tight. Demand is neutral, and inventories may remain high in the short - to - medium - term [28]. - Reference view: The rapeseed oil futures price may oscillate near the platform [28]. Soybean No. 2 - Spot information: Import costs of US, Brazilian, and Argentine soybeans are provided [29]. - Market analysis: Sino - US trade talks boost market confidence. Good weather in US soybean - growing areas and the peak season of Brazilian soybean exports affect the price [29]. - Reference view: The soybean No. 2 futures price may oscillate strongly in the short - term [29]. Soybean Meal - Spot information: Soybean meal prices in different regions are provided [30]. - Market analysis: Pay attention to Sino - US trade talks. Internationally, trade talks boost confidence, and tariffs and weather are key factors. Domestically, oil - mill production is high, and downstream demand is weak, but inventory accumulation is slow [30]. - Reference view: The soybean meal futures price may oscillate strongly in the short - term [30]. Soybean Oil - Spot information: Soybean oil prices in different regions are provided [31]. - Market analysis: Internationally, supply pressure and falling oil prices put pressure on soybean oil. Domestically, oil - mill production is high, and demand is in the off - season, with inventory accumulation pressure increasing [31]. - Reference view: The soybean oil futures price may oscillate in the short - term [31] Metals Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper increased, and the import copper ore index also rose [32]. - Market analysis: US economic data reduces recession concerns and rate - cut expectations. Global tariffs and domestic policies affect the market. Raw material issues and inventory changes make the market more complex [33]. - Reference view: The copper price may touch the bubble price line. Consider removing defenses based on signals [33]. Aluminum - Spot information: The Shanghai spot aluminum price increased [34]. - Market analysis: The cost of alumina increases, supporting the theoretical cost of electrolytic aluminum. Supply is expected to be in surplus, and demand is in the off - season. Inventories decline, and the spot market is at a premium, but demand limits the upside [34]. - Reference view: The aluminum futures price may oscillate in a range [34]. Alumina - Spot information: The national average alumina price decreased slightly, and prices in different regions vary [35]. - Market analysis: Sino - US trade talks boost market sentiment. Supply slightly decreases as smelters' profits improve. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventories start to accumulate. The price is under pressure [35]. - Reference view: The alumina futures price shows a weak adjustment trend [35]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Spot information: The national and East China spot prices of cast aluminum alloy are stable [36]. - Market analysis: The high price of scrap aluminum supports the cost. Supply is in surplus as the industry expands. Demand from new - energy vehicles and electronics is resilient but limited by tariffs and the global economy. Inventories are high and may continue to accumulate [36]. - Reference view: The cast aluminum alloy futures price may be strong [37]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate are stable [38]. - Market analysis: The upstream raw - material market shows signs of stabilization, supply is stable but the structure is adjusting, and demand is weak. The price may oscillate at the bottom [38]. - Reference view: Conservative investors can wait and see, while aggressive investors can trade in the range [38]. Industrial Silicon - Spot information: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon are stable [39]. - Market analysis: Supply increases slightly, and demand is weak as downstream industries cut production or have low operating rates. Inventories are digested slowly, and the price is under pressure. Technically, it may rebound [39]. - Reference view: The industrial silicon futures price may oscillate strongly at the bottom [39]. Polysilicon - Spot information: The prices of different types of polysilicon are stable [40]. - Market analysis: Supply shows no obvious contraction, and demand is weak overall, with some differentiation. Exports decline. The market's supply - demand contradiction is not alleviated [40]. - Reference view: The polysilicon futures price may oscillate. Watch the previous low - point support [40] Black Metals Stainless Steel - Spot information: The price of cold - rolled stainless steel coil increased [41]. - Market analysis: Technically, it may change from a one - sided decline to a low - level oscillation. Fundamentally, the raw - material market is quiet, and cost supports the price, but weak demand restricts the upside [41]. - Reference view: It may oscillate widely at a low level. Wait and see for now [41]. Rebar - Spot information: The price of rebar in Shanghai is stable [42]. - Market analysis: Technically, it is stabilizing. Fundamentally, external talks are going well, raw - material prices are stabilizing, costs are dynamic, and demand is in the off - season, but inventories are low and the valuation is low [42][43]. - Reference view: The overall valuation is low. Consider light - position long positions at low prices [43]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Spot information: The price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai is stable [44]. - Market analysis: Technically, it is stabilizing. Fundamentally, external talks are going well, raw - material prices are stabilizing, costs are dynamic, apparent demand recovers, and inventories are low with a low valuation [44]. - Reference view: The overall valuation is low. Consider light - position long positions at low prices [44]. Iron Ore - Spot information: The iron ore price index and futures price are provided [45]. - Market analysis: Supply pressure eases as global shipments increase and domestic production rises slightly. Demand weakens as steel - mill operating rates decline, but current iron - water production is still high. Port inventories increase, and demand in the off - season is expected to be weak. Sino - US tariff easing boosts sentiment, but steel - billet exports are uncertain. Non - mainstream ore production cuts support the price, but reduced steel - mill profits may suppress demand [45]. - Reference view: The iron ore futures price may oscillate in the short - term. Watch port inventory