Core Insights - The long-term care insurance (LTCI) system aims to establish a nationwide coverage for long-term care, particularly addressing the needs of the 120 million rural elderly in China [1][2][3] - The LTCI pilot program has highlighted the significant gap in care services for rural elderly, exacerbated by funding challenges and insufficient service supply [1][2][3] - Experts suggest that the LTCI can stimulate the silver economy and lead to the emergence of branded, chain-based elderly care service companies similar to those in the UK [1][4][6] Group 1: Current Situation and Challenges - The aging population in rural areas is more severe than in urban areas, with 121 million individuals aged 60 and above, representing 23.81% of the rural population [2][3] - The proportion of empty-nest elderly individuals has surpassed 50%, with some rural areas exceeding 70%, highlighting the urgent need for care services [2][4] - The current LTCI pilot program is fragmented, with varying coverage and benefits across different regions, leading to inadequate support for rural residents [2][3] Group 2: Policy and Implementation - The government is encouraging the development of embedded and chain-type nursing institutions to enhance service accessibility in rural areas [1][5] - Local pilot programs have shown success in integrating long-term care services into existing healthcare facilities, such as transforming hospitals into care zones [5][6] - The LTCI system has expanded to cover 1.8 billion people, with over 800 billion yuan spent on benefits, creating approximately 300,000 jobs and attracting 60 billion yuan in social capital [7] Group 3: Future Prospects - The establishment of localized care service institutions is seen as a key strategy to improve accessibility and efficiency in rural long-term care [6][7] - The LTCI policy is expected to attract significant social capital investment into the nursing industry, potentially leading to the development of well-known brand chains in rural care services [6][7] - The effective implementation of LTCI will require a robust network of quality care institutions to ensure that the benefits translate into real services for the elderly [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The recovery of newborn population in 2024 has provided relief to maternal and infant-related listed companies, but long-term growth remains dependent on overcoming reliance on population dividends [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - In Q1 2024, Kidswant (孩子王) reported revenue of 2.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, and net profit of 31.08 million yuan, up 166% [1]. - Aiyingshi (爱婴室) achieved Q1 2024 revenue of 860 million yuan, growing 6.6% year-on-year, with net profit of 6.694 million yuan, up 6.1% [1]. - The newborn population in China for 2024 was 9.54 million, an increase of 520,000 from the previous year, positively impacting the maternal and infant market [1]. Group 2: Revenue Drivers - The growth in revenue for Kidswant and Aiyingshi was primarily driven by core business milk powder sales, with revenues of 5.07 billion yuan and 2.1 billion yuan respectively, both showing year-on-year growth of 9.4% and 9.5% [2]. - In Q1 2025, Aiyingshi's milk powder revenue reached 530 million yuan, a 10.9% increase year-on-year, while sales of other products like toys also saw growth [2]. - Haoyue Care (豪悦护理) reported a 4.3% increase in infant hygiene product revenue to 2.06 billion yuan in 2024, contributing to an overall revenue of 2.93 billion yuan, reversing a decline from the previous year [2]. Group 3: Market Trends and Challenges - Analysts indicate that while the recovery in newborn numbers has contributed to performance, companies must diversify away from reliance on population growth due to the long-term decline in birth rates [3]. - Companies are exploring transformation paths, with Haoyue Care investing in adult incontinence products to capitalize on the aging population trend [3]. - The management of Yili has indicated potential slight declines in birth rates in 2025, reflecting ongoing challenges in the demographic landscape [3].

实施就业支持计划 挖掘先进制造等新质生产力就业潜力。实施新一轮十大重点行业稳增长工作方案，开展先进制造业促就 业行动，开展科技成果转化和产业化行动，实施大中小企业梯度培育专项行动，实施"人工智能+"行动 计划。 推动消费新热点转化为就业新渠道。推进煤电机组节能降碳、供热、灵活性改造"三改联动"，推动冰雪 运动、冰雪文化、冰雪装备、冰雪旅游全产业链发展，持续开展夏季避暑和冬季冰雪旅游"百日行动"， 培育具有黑龙江省特色的服务外包集聚区。 放大重大工程项目建设就业增量。抢抓国家"两重"建设、超长期特别国债等政策机遇，谋划实施标志 性、引领性项目，加强重大基础设施建设，突出抓好省级重点项目建设，加大以工代赈实施力度，挖掘 重点工程项目用工潜力。 围绕保障重点民生服务促进就业。大力发展中医康养、智慧养老等银发经济，实施医疗卫生强基工程， 健全完善普惠托育服务体系，推动家政服务职业技能培训，发展重度残疾人托养照护服务，及时扩大物 业服务人员配备。 拓宽劳动者城乡基层服务空间。因地制宜打造县域优势特色主导产业，加大社区专职工作人员岗位供 给，稳定基层项目招募规模，支持投身法律援助志愿服务，支持引导社会组织持续拓展服务空间 ...

Group 1 - The health and nutrition of the elderly population is crucial for overall public health, with a focus on promoting balanced diets and adequate nutrition for seniors [1] - The 2024 version of the Chinese Elderly Balanced Diet Pyramid will be released in July 2024, emphasizing the importance of dairy intake, recommending 300-500 grams of liquid milk daily [1] - The dairy industry is expected to see growth opportunities as the aging population increases, with a rising demand for dairy products tailored to the nutritional needs of seniors [1][2] Group 2 - Functional dairy product development for the elderly should address comprehensive solutions and product effectiveness, focusing on preventing falls and cognitive decline [2] - Dairy products can help reduce the risk of falls through calcium and vitamin D, while specific nutrients can support joint, muscle, and bone health [2] - There is a need for improved promotion and consumer awareness regarding elderly dairy products, with suggestions to expand consumption scenarios beyond households to communities and elderly care facilities [2] Group 3 - The initiative to safeguard elderly health requires collaboration across society, with companies like Fonterra aiming to enhance nutrition for seniors through quality dairy sources, product innovation, and market education [3]

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 5 月 21 日 5 月 LPR 下调 10 个基点，震荡轮动格局或将延续 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 5 月 20 日，贷款市场报价利率（LPR）迎来年内首次下调，1 年期 LPR 和 5 年期以上 LPR 均下调 10 个基点。同时，多家国有大行及股份行下调存款利率， 活期、定期及通知存款利率全面调降。政策进一步释放流动性宽松信号，降低存 量房贷利率以刺激消费和经济复苏，对 A 股形成利好。 周二沪深三大指数集体上涨，盘面上看，受益于 618 大促预期及消费政策支 持，美容护理、零售连锁表现活跃。而消费升级趋势下，宠物食品、IP 衍生品等 细分赛道受资金追捧，反映市场对新兴消费需求的挖掘。 不过，尽管周二市场集体上攻，但高位股方向出现分歧，后市震荡轮动格局 或将延续：首先，高位股分歧加大。部分前期强势股出现大幅回调；其次，技术 面仍有承压。3400 点作为前期密集成交区，积累了不少套牢盘 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Reliable Co. and Adult Incontinence Products Market Industry Overview - The adult incontinence products market in China has significant potential, with a current penetration rate below 10%, compared to 60% in Europe and the US, and 80% in Japan. The market is expected to grow to around 50% over the next decade due to aging population and the nationwide promotion of long-term care insurance starting in 2025 [2][3][5]. Key Points and Arguments - **Long-term Care Insurance Impact**: The introduction of long-term care insurance is a crucial factor for market growth. Japan's experience shows that such insurance can significantly increase market penetration from 10% to 60% over 15 years. China's government plans to implement this insurance nationwide, which is expected to positively impact the adult incontinence products market [2][4][5]. - **Reliable Co.'s Market Position**: Reliable Co. is positioned as a market leader, leveraging brand development and channel strategies, particularly excelling in e-commerce. The company has made strategic adjustments in channel transformation, user operations, and digital marketing, which have shown growth effects in the 2024 annual report [2][6][11]. - **Consumer Behavior**: The market features a separation between users and purchasers, with online channels being significant. Consumers demand high quality, and brand recognition is gradually increasing. Membership user operations can enhance customer loyalty [2][8]. - **Market Pricing Dynamics**: The adult diaper market in China is characterized by chaotic pricing with many low-quality products. The promotion of long-term care insurance and market standardization is expected to phase out low-end products, leading to a shift towards quality and branding [2][12][13]. Additional Important Insights - **Strategic Planning**: Reliable Co.'s strategic planning for the next three years includes adapting to post-pandemic consumer behavior, channel transformation towards direct services, user operations to attract new customers, and increased digital marketing efforts [9][10]. - **Competitive Advantage**: Reliable Co. holds a competitive edge in government procurement and long-term care insurance sectors, supported by strategic supply chain investments. The company aims to become the absolute leader in the down-market segment [4][11]. - **Challenges for SMEs**: As the industry standardizes, small and medium enterprises may face challenges due to strict quality regulations, which could lead to market exit for those unable to meet standards [14]. - **International Expansion Plans**: Reliable Co. plans to expand internationally, targeting developed countries for adult incontinence products and developing countries for baby diapers and sanitary pads, leveraging its competitive product quality and flexible manufacturing capabilities [17]. - **Profitability Outlook**: After a period of low profitability due to various factors, the company anticipates significant growth in sales and profits over the next three years, driven by improved operational efficiency and cost control measures [18][19].

Core Insights - The "silver economy" is gaining momentum, with a significant rise in demand for silver social interactions as a crucial component of this trend [1][3] - The aging population in China is leading to an increase in "empty nesters," with 14.2% of elderly individuals living alone and 45.5% living with a spouse, totaling 59.7% [1] - The need for social connections among elderly individuals is becoming increasingly recognized as a vital requirement [1][3] Group 1: Market Trends - The "one-day gathering" concept is becoming popular among the elderly, with an average cost of around 100 yuan, providing meals and entertainment [2][5] - Various social products targeting middle-aged and elderly individuals are emerging, focusing on low decision-making costs and high emotional value [2][3] - The silver social entertainment market in China has surpassed 700 billion yuan, driven by the increasing consumption willingness and capability of the 60s and 70s age groups [3] Group 2: Business Challenges - Despite the market's potential, profitability remains a challenge due to the conservative spending habits of the elderly, with essential living expenses dominating their consumption [4][5] - The income sources for individuals aged 60 and above are primarily pensions (34.67%), family support (32.66%), and labor income (21.97%), indicating a limited financial capacity for discretionary spending [4] - The industry faces hurdles in establishing trust and consumption habits among elderly consumers, who may be wary of new social products [5][6] Group 3: Future Opportunities - There is a growing trend towards personalized services, with over 80% of elderly consumers expressing a desire for customized travel experiences [5] - The integration of social, entertainment, and educational services is expanding, with new business models emerging to meet the diverse needs of the elderly [3][7] - The government is actively promoting the development of the silver economy, focusing on areas such as elder care technology and financial services [7][8] Group 4: Social Dynamics - The social needs of the elderly are multifaceted, encompassing emotional connections, interest-driven activities, and functional enhancements [7] - The shift from passive participation to active creation among the elderly is driving demand for more engaging social experiences [7] - The rise of online platforms catering to elderly social interactions reflects the changing landscape of how this demographic engages socially [8][9]

Core Insights - Guangzhou's elderly population aged 60 and above reached 2.1292 million, accounting for 19.81% of the total population, which is lower than the national average of 22% [3][4] Demographic Data - As of the end of 2024, Guangzhou's registered population is 10.7502 million, with the elderly population (60 years and older) being 2.1292 million, which is 2.2 percentage points younger than the national average [3] - The elderly population aged 80 and above is 302,400, representing 2.81% of the registered population, an increase from 2.77% in 2023 [4] - The elderly dependency ratio for those aged 60 and above is 33.2%, while for those aged 65 and above, it is 21.6% [3] Community and Institutional Support - Guangzhou has achieved a 100% coverage rate for community elderly care service facilities [5] - There are 297 elderly care institutions with a total of 60,144 beds, of which 93% are nursing beds [6] - Approximately 98,000 individuals aged 70 and above receive high-age subsidies, ensuring financial support for elderly residents [6] Healthcare Integration - The number of medical and nursing integrated institutions has reached 147, with 21 independent elderly nursing homes, marking a 16.67% increase from the previous year [6] - 200.63 million elderly individuals aged 60 and above are enrolled in long-term care insurance [6] - 39 public hospitals have established geriatric departments, and 226 elderly-friendly medical institutions have been built, achieving a 100% construction rate [6] Elderly Education and Engagement - There are 145 elderly schools across various levels, including 33 district-level schools and 112 street/town-level schools [7] - Guangzhou has 53 elderly universities offering modern courses, with a total enrollment of 141,200 students [8] Silver Economy Development - The number of enterprises in the silver economy sector has surpassed 10,000, with the establishment of the first silver economy industrial park and several smart health (age-friendly) equipment experience centers [9] - The city has introduced ten measures to promote the silver economy, providing up to 100 million yuan in support for qualifying projects [9] - Events such as the 8th Guangzhou Old Age Expo and the 1st Guangzhou Age-Friendly Equipment Design Competition attracted over 800 domestic and international enterprises, resulting in intended cooperation worth approximately 360 million yuan [9]

然而，与广阔的市场前景相伴的，是商业模式尚在探索、盈利能力有待提升、专业人才相对匮乏等现实 挑战。 远洋集团（3377.HK）旗下的椿萱茂养老运营管理有限公司（以下简称"椿萱茂"）是较早成立的一批市 场化养老企业之一，自创立以来，便将目光投向专业化的养老服务。通过多年的实践和积累，逐渐形成 了一套相对成熟的打法，同时也体验到了市场化养老这条路的艰辛。 风口下的市场化抉择 近年来，中国养老产业迎来了前所未有的发展机遇。一方面，国家政策持续加码，从顶层设计到具体扶 持措施，都在为养老服务业的发展营造良好环境。例如，推动普惠养老与市场化养老协同发展，鼓励养 老服务与医疗、健康、文旅等产业融合，探索养老服务设施REITs试点，加强养老服务人才队伍建设 等，都为行业注入了强劲动力。 另一方面，市场需求也在发生深刻变化。老年群体的消费观念逐渐转变，对养老服务的需求不再仅仅满 足于基本的生活照料，而是向着健康管理、精神慰藉、社交娱乐、品质生活等更高层次延伸。60后、70 后等"新老年人"群体逐步进入退休生活，他们普遍具有更强的经济实力和支付意愿，对养老服务的品质 和个性化要求也更高。 本报记者 卢志坤 北京报道 官方数据显 ...

今日开盘，创业板医药ETF国泰（159377）涨幅2.17%。 消息面上，《医疗器械网络销售质量管理规范》政策解读于5月9日发布，明确了网络销售经营者、电商 平台的责任及质量安全管理要求。 创业板医药ETF国泰（159377）跟踪的是创医药指数（399275），该指数由中证指数有限公司编制，从 创业板市场中选取涉及生物医药、医疗器械等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，聚焦创新药及相关产 业链。 华源证券指出，医药生物行业已呈现多重底部特征，医改影响逐步调整到位，板块估值和持仓均处于历 史低位。创新产业初具规模，恒瑞医药、翰森制药等传统药企完成创新转型，2020年后研发投入快速提 升，创新管线已形成差异化布局。医疗器械领域，内窥镜、微电生理等细分市场空间大且国产率低。出 海能力持续提升，创新药械license out频现，迈瑞医疗、联影医疗等企业在全球市场崭露头角。老龄化 加速推动慢性病需求增长，银发经济成为长坡厚雪赛道。支付端医保收支稳健增长，商业保险发展构建 多层次支付体系。AI技术为医药行业注入新动能，制药、医疗设备及大数据模型领域有望释放增长潜 力。当前行业经历政策阵痛后，结构性高增长细分领域值得期待，建 ...