杨德龙 | 立方大家谈专栏作者 进入8月份，市场出现反复震荡调整的走势，而7月份市场则呈现持续上攻态势，上证指数一度突破3500 点、3600点两个整数关口。近期市场的短期震荡并未改变中长期上涨的逻辑，预计下半年市场仍会进一 步上攻，这轮慢牛、长牛行情已经开启。 5月份市场出现较大调整时，我曾建议大家要坚定信心，今年整体市场呈现结构性牛市走势，5月份的调 整主要源于部分公司年报业绩低预期出现回调，A股市场向来有"五穷、六绝、七翻身"的特点，通常到 7月份市场会迎来上行机会，今年也不例外，目前的走势已初步验证了当时的判断。 近期影响市场的一些短期因素，如关税战，对市场信心产生了一定影响，导致市场短期出现调整。但从 中期来看，稳经济增长的政策在不断落地显效，下半年财政政策会更加积极，降息降准的可能性也在不 断增大。 美国公布的非农就业数据远低于预期且进行了大幅下修，使得美联储9月份降息的概率陡增，预计9月份 可能降息一次，年底会降息两次。美国劳工部公布的数据显示，7月新增就业仅录得7.3万人，大幅低于 预期，且对5月和6月的数据进行了罕见大幅下修，合计削减25.8万个就业岗位。这促使交易员纷纷押注 美联储将降息， ...

特朗普在高尔夫球场豪气宣布对欧盟加征15%对等关税，还强行塞进购买美国能源、军火和巨额投资的 条款。今天就来和大家汇总一下近期全球关税战的最新进展。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign trade has shown resilience with a year-on-year growth of 2.9% in the first half of the year, driven by a significant 7.2% increase in exports despite the challenges posed by U.S. tariffs [1][8]. Group 1: Export Growth and Market Diversification - Yiwu, known as a barometer for foreign trade, has seen businesses adapt by expanding production capacity, with some companies doubling their output [1]. - Companies in Yiwu are focusing on diversifying their markets beyond the U.S., with significant growth in exports to Latin America, Europe, and Africa, with increases of 15.2%, 21.3%, and 24.4% respectively [5]. - The Christmas goods sector in Yiwu has also benefited from early orders as clients anticipate tariff impacts, showcasing a proactive approach to market challenges [2][4]. Group 2: Business Adaptation and Investment - Yiwu merchants are increasingly participating in international trade fairs, with 683 foreign trade enterprises and 1,424 participants attending 91 overseas exhibitions in the first half of the year [5]. - The rental and transfer prices of shops in Yiwu have been rising, indicating a robust demand for commercial space, with some shops seeing rental prices increase from 130,000 to 230,000 yuan over three years [7]. - The upcoming launch of the Global Digital Trade Center in Yiwu has sparked intense competition for shop spaces, reflecting the growing interest in digital and cross-border commerce [7]. Group 3: Overall Trade Resilience - Yiwu's total import and export value increased by 25% year-on-year in the first half of the year, highlighting the resilience of China's foreign trade amidst global uncertainties [8]. - The influx of foreign buyers to Yiwu has increased by 19.6% this year, further supporting the local economy and trade activities [6].

Core Insights - Since 2025, the global trade landscape has undergone profound changes, with tariff wars and geopolitical factors significantly impacting Chinese companies' "going out" strategy [1] - Despite numerous challenges, opportunities remain in cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A) projects that exhibit industrial synergy, technological complementarity, and market expansion potential [1] - The London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) has initiated a series of offline seminars to discuss and exchange views on these topics with experts from various fields [1] Event Information - The event will take place on August 5, 2025, from 14:30 to 17:30 at Hellas House, Shanghai [3] - The agenda includes multiple theme presentations, such as a review of the Chinese M&A market in the first half of the year and discussions on risks and challenges in overseas markets like Indonesia [2][4] Speakers - Xiang Chen, Co-Head of International Business and Executive General Manager at Huatai United Securities, has nearly 15 years of experience in overseas investment and cross-border M&A [5] - Luo Xingguo, Professor and Vice Chair of the Finance Department at Zhejiang University, specializes in derivatives, green finance, and credit risk [6] - Huang Xuchun, Partner at Global Law Firm, has extensive experience in M&A and cross-border licensing transactions, particularly in the life sciences and healthcare sectors [7] - Feng Kai, Senior Investment Banking Data Manager at LSEG, has 16 years of experience in transaction data and is responsible for M&A data in mainland China and Taiwan [8] - Ling Yufeng, Senior Client Learning Manager at LSEG, has nearly 20 years of experience providing financial information solutions to various clients [9]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market shows signs of weakness, with non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs in August, significantly below the expected 110,000, marking the lowest figure since October of the previous year [1] - The Labor Department revised down the job numbers for May and June, reducing them by a total of 258,000 jobs, which contributed to an increase in the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4.2% [1] - The federal government has been cutting jobs, with 12,000 positions eliminated in July alone, totaling 84,000 job cuts for the year [1] Group 2 - Analysts have noted that the current economic state is characterized by stagnation, with no hiring or layoffs occurring, described as "half-dead" [2] - The significant job cuts in federal agencies, including over 80,000 positions in the Department of Education, have contributed to the employment decline [4] - The cumulative downward revision of non-farm payroll data since 2023 has exceeded 1.7 million jobs, raising concerns about the accuracy of previous employment reports [4] Group 3 - Investor Jim Rogers has expressed extreme pessimism about the U.S. economy, warning of an impending "great crisis" due to the massive national debt [9] - Rogers draws parallels between the current U.S. situation and the historical debt crisis faced by the UK in 1976, emphasizing the importance of debt repayment [9] - He believes the prolonged bull market in U.S. stocks, which has lasted since 2009, is unsustainable and warns of a severe downturn when the market eventually corrects [9] Group 4 - Rogers has shifted his investment focus away from U.S. stocks, holding only stocks from China, which he views as a rapidly rising global power with significant potential, particularly in tourism [8][12] - He highlights the importance of China's Belt and Road Initiative, suggesting it will reshape global economic and political landscapes [8]

Group 1 - The market experienced fluctuations in August after a strong rally in July, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering key levels of 3500 and 3600 points, indicating a long-term bullish trend has begun [1] - The structural bull market is supported by policies aimed at stabilizing economic growth, with expectations of more proactive fiscal policies and potential interest rate cuts in the second half of the year [1][2] - The low interest rate environment is expected to benefit capital markets, with a stable liquidity situation and a positive outlook for economic recovery [3] Group 2 - There is a significant divergence in consumer performance, with new consumption brands showing strong growth while traditional sectors like liquor and food are underperforming due to declining income growth [4] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to reduce overcapacity in various industries, which could improve competitiveness and benefit leading companies in sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics [5][6] - The U.S. trade war initiated by Trump has negatively impacted global trade growth and the U.S. economy, creating a challenging environment for companies reliant on international markets [7] Group 3 - The recent strong performance of U.S. tech stocks contrasts with warnings from prominent investors about potential market bubbles and high valuations, indicating a cautious outlook for the second half of the year [9] - The international gold price has shown volatility, but long-term trends suggest significant potential for price increases due to rising dollar issuance and geopolitical instability [10][11]

随着8月1日这个美国政府单方面设定的"关税大限"到来，这场搅乱世界4个月的"关税风暴"似乎又到了一个转折点。当地时间8月3日，美国贸易代表格里尔 表示，"特朗普总统上周对多国加征的新一轮关税'基本已定'，不会在当前谈判中作出调整。" "承认巴勒斯坦国"成加税理由 在所有混乱中，最令人意外的是美国对加拿大挥出重锤，将关税从25%提高至35%。 △加拿大总理卡尼（资料图） 在外界看来，加拿大宣称将有条件承认巴勒斯坦国是美国对其"下狠手"的导火索。 △美国总统特朗普在社交媒体发文 加拿大总理卡尼7月30日表示，加拿大打算在2025年9月举行的第80届联合国大会上承认巴勒斯坦国。卡尼讲话刚结束，特朗普立刻在社交媒体上回应 称："加拿大宣布支持巴勒斯坦建国。这将使我们很难与他们达成贸易协议。"此后不到24个小时内，他就签署了对加拿大加征关税的行政令。 △加拿大魁北克省蒙特利尔港 美国4月2日宣布对全球发起"对等关税"，在暂缓90天后，又被推迟至8月1日实施。在这场席卷全球的关税战中，"几家欢喜几家愁"的戏码，不断在全球各地 上演。 伦敦政治经济学院研究员菲利普·勒格兰称，"我们将会看到一场全球贸易战。这最终会导致混乱以 ...

Core Viewpoint - South Korea has signed a new trade agreement with the United States under pressure, indicating a shift in strategy to avoid China and maintain a competitive edge in global trade [1][3]. Trade Agreement Details - The agreement includes a 15% tariff imposed by the U.S. on South Korean goods, while South Korea commits to opening its market for more U.S. products, particularly in the automotive and agricultural sectors [3]. - South Korea is required to invest $350 billion in "controllable" funds in the U.S. and purchase $100 billion worth of energy products, mainly natural gas [3]. - Unlike agreements with Japan and the EU, the U.S. tariff is based on a "reciprocal tariff" framework, and South Korea is explicitly prohibited from retaliatory tariffs against U.S. goods [3]. Political Context - South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, who campaigned on a pro-China platform, faces significant domestic opposition due to the trade agreement, as it contradicts his earlier promises to improve relations with China [5]. - The decision to negotiate with the U.S. was influenced by the geopolitical situation, including the presence of U.S. troops in South Korea and the unstable inter-Korean relations [7]. Strategic Implications - The U.S. has recognized that bypassing China allows it to gain more leverage in global trade, as evidenced by the recent agreements with South Korea, Japan, and the EU [9][11]. - Following the agreement with South Korea, the U.S. has begun to exert pressure on India, demanding a 25% tariff and imposing additional sanctions related to military cooperation with Russia [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the trade negotiations between China and the United States have not made substantial progress, with the possibility of increasing tariffs on China to triple digits being mentioned by the U.S. negotiation team [1] - China has responded firmly, indicating a willingness to negotiate but also readiness to retaliate if necessary, emphasizing an open-door policy for talks [3] - The U.S. appears to be unwilling to make significant concessions in the negotiations, aiming to maintain its position as a major global economic power [4] Group 2 - On July 30, President Trump announced a 25% tariff on Indian goods starting August 1, citing India's unfair trade practices as the reason for this punitive measure [6][8] - Trump also announced a new trade agreement with South Korea, which includes a 15% tariff on South Korean goods, with South Korea expected to invest $350 billion in the U.S. [10][11] - The U.S. strategy of applying different tariff levels to neighboring countries like India and South Korea is seen as a way to control these nations and prevent them from distancing themselves from U.S. trade policies [13] Group 3 - The current tariff strategy indicates that the U.S. offers the lowest tariffs to the UK at 10%, followed by the EU, Japan, and South Korea at 15%, while countries like India are at 25% [15] - It is suggested that the reasonable bottom line for U.S.-China negotiations could be around a 20% tariff, which would facilitate smoother discussions if China agrees [15] - The U.S. President's strategic approach reflects a calculated plan to maintain leverage over China while managing relationships with neighboring countries [17]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing tensions in US-China trade relations, particularly focusing on the recent negotiations in Stockholm where both sides are trying to maximize their national interests despite a seemingly cordial atmosphere [1][9]. - The article discusses the implications of Brazil's strong stance against US tariffs, particularly in the context of its significant rare earth resources, which are crucial for various industries [15][18]. - It emphasizes the strategic partnership between China and Brazil, especially in the context of trade and rare earth resources, suggesting that US actions may inadvertently strengthen this alliance [22][24]. Group 2 - The article notes that the US has increased tariffs on Brazilian goods, which could lead to retaliatory measures from Brazil, potentially impacting the supply of rare earth materials to the US [11][15]. - It mentions that Brazil's manufacturing sector heavily relies on the US market, indicating a complex interdependence that could be disrupted by escalating trade tensions [16]. - The article also points out that the US's unilateral actions may not only harm its relations with Brazil but could also have broader implications for its trade relationships with other countries, including China [20][27].