宏观日报 | 2025-06-18 关注推动传统制造业转型政策发行 中观事件总览 生产行业：关注推动传统制造业转型相关政策发行。 1）国务院国资委召开国有企业改革深化提升行动2025年第 二次专题推进会。国务院国资委党委委员、副主任李镇在会上表示，国资国企要加大力度推动传统产业高端化智 能化绿色化转型升级。进一步深入应用人工智能、工业互联网、5G等数字技术，推动传统产业转型升级，边远或 技术创新相对滞后的地区，要争取乘势而上，形成后发优势。积极用好国家"两重""两新"有关政策，推动更新升级， 实现"老树发新枝"。2）国家发改委发布消息称，自6月17日24时起，国内汽油价格和柴油价格分别上调260元/吨和 255元/吨。折合升价，92号汽油上调0.20元，95号汽油和0号柴油均上调0.22元。按照油箱容量为50 L的家用轿车为 例，加满一箱92号汽油将多花10元。 服务行业：5月外汇市场稳定。 1）国家外汇管理局副局长、新闻发言人李斌就2025年5月外汇市场形势回答了记 者提问。他表示，5月份企业、个人等非银行部门跨境资金净流入330亿美元。其中，货物贸易资金净流入保持在 较高水平，外资增持境内股票较上月进一步 ...

北京时间周四凌晨2点，美联储将公布6月利率决议及最新经济预测摘要（SEP），其中反映官员利率预 期的"点阵图"成为关键焦点。当前，对进口关税走向及地缘冲突下油价波动的不确定性加剧，正显著提 升美联储无法如3月预期般在2025年降息两次的风险。 3月点阵图中值显示，美联储官员预计2025年底前降息两次。然而，目前联邦基金利率期货市场仅赋予 降息幅度小于两次约37.7%的概率。这一预期差为今夜决议埋下风险：若点阵图中值下调至仅一次降 息，可能引发市场失望情绪。 美国总统特朗普4月对多数进口商品加征的10%基础关税，其90天暂停期将于7月结束，缺乏永久解决方 案加剧了通胀前景的不确定性。同时，近期中东紧张局势导致油价波动加剧，引发对潜在供应中断推升 通胀的担忧。这些因素叠加，正侵蚀美联储的政策空间。 金融服务公司Ebury指出，年内两次降息可能仍是多数委员的基准预期，但关税的巨大不确定性可能阻 碍他们大幅调整观点。风险在于，少数委员下调预期可能足以使点阵图中值指向仅降息一次（25基 点）。若点阵图偏鹰派，加之鲍威尔强调不急于降息，可能支撑美元走强。 市场普遍预期美联储首次降息将在9月。过去三个月，美联储官员对202 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.04% to close at 3387.4 points, with a daily high of 3393.31 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.12% to 10151.43 points, reaching a high of 10198.98 points [1] - The ChiNext Index dropped by 0.36% to 2049.94 points, with a peak of 2063.08 points [1] ETF Market Performance - The median return of stock ETFs was -0.15% [2] - The highest performing scale index ETF was ICBC Credit Suisse CSI 2000 ETF with a return of 1.92% [2] - The top industry index ETF was E Fund CSI Green Power ETF, returning 1.04% [2] - The highest return among thematic index ETFs was Huitianfu CSI Oil and Gas Resources ETF at 1.91% [2] ETF Performance Rankings - The top three ETFs by return were: 1. ICBC Credit Suisse CSI 2000 ETF: 1.92% [4] 2. Huitianfu CSI Oil and Gas Resources ETF: 1.91% [4] 3. Yinhua CSI Oil and Gas Resources ETF: 1.66% [4] - The worst performing ETFs included: 1. Tianhong Hang Seng Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Innovative Drug Selection 50 ETF: -3.85% [5] 2. E Fund CSI Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Innovative Drug Industry ETF: -3.83% [5] 3. Huatai-PB CSI Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Innovative Drug Industry ETF: -3.64% [5] ETF Fund Flows - The top three ETFs by fund inflow were: 1. Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF: 1.333 billion yuan [6] 2. E Fund Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF: 374 million yuan [6] 3. Guotai Junan CSI All-Share Securities Company ETF: 260 million yuan [6] - The largest outflows were from: 1. Southern CSI 1000 ETF: 247 million yuan [7] 2. ICBC Credit Suisse Shenzhen Dividend ETF: 239 million yuan [7] 3. Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF: 212 million yuan [7] ETF Margin Trading Overview - The highest margin buy amounts were: 1. Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF: 486 million yuan [8] 2. E Fund CSI 300 Medical and Health ETF: 218 million yuan [8] 3. Huaxia Shanghai 50 ETF: 210 million yuan [8] - The largest margin sell amounts were: 1. Southern CSI 1000 ETF: 49.79 million yuan [9] 2. Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF: 13.79 million yuan [9] 3. Huaxia Shanghai 50 ETF: 8.31 million yuan [9] Industry Insights - Huatai Securities noted that the risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil transport route, may lead to a new round of price increases in the shipping sector [10] - CITIC Securities highlighted that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine are driving significant fluctuations in oil prices, with Brent crude expected to range between $70 and $100 per barrel in the short term [11]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic asphalt market is experiencing a stable supply and recovering demand, with price outlook supported by inventory trends and potential consumption recovery in the coming months [1] Supply Side - Recent asphalt production levels in China have slightly decreased but remain stable compared to previous periods, with a total production of 549,000 tons by mid-June, down from the peak in mid-May but still within a comfortable supply range [1] - Independent refineries produced 290,000 tons in mid-June, which, although lower than the May peak, is still relatively high compared to previous years, confirming a trend of increased production [1] Demand Side - The demand for asphalt is gradually recovering, with sales volume reaching 434,000 tons in mid-June, showing a year-on-year increase despite a month-on-month decline [1] - The operating rate for downstream road asphalt remains above 25%, having previously risen to 31%, with expectations for further support in consumption due to seasonal temperature increases and construction activity resuming in northern regions [1] Inventory - Recent trends indicate a shift in domestic asphalt inventory, with factory inventory at 494,000 tons as of June 13, continuing a downward trend since mid-March [1] - Social inventory remains stable around 520,000 tons, with no significant accumulation expected, suggesting a potential inventory reduction in the medium term that could support asphalt prices [1] Profitability - Asphalt production profits in Shandong have seen some recovery in late April to May, maintaining stability in June, influenced by rising crude oil prices and a loose supply environment [1] - The transition between the second and third quarters may see a release in consumption that could boost production margins [1] Basis and Cost - The basis for asphalt, represented by Shandong spot prices, continues to show an upward trend, with short-term corrections not altering the overall upward trajectory [1] - Recent fluctuations in crude oil prices, driven by geopolitical factors, have increased market volatility, with concerns about supply contraction and potential impacts from the Israel-Palestine conflict affecting oil prices [1] Outlook - Asphalt prices are currently stable, with less volatility than crude oil, primarily influenced by oil price movements [1] - The second half of the second quarter will be critical for observing demand recovery, with long-term price opportunities anticipated due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1]

Supply and Demand - PTA supply has increased significantly, with operating rates rising to 83% (+1.7%) [3] - Polyester operating rates remain stable at approximately 90.9% (-0.2%), with mixed impacts from maintenance and restarts [3] - Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to fluctuations in oil prices, affecting long fiber prices and production sales [3] Market Outlook - The supply-demand balance for PTA is expected to weaken, with downstream polyester manufacturers anticipating further production cuts [4] - Despite a tight spot market, the expectation of a decline in basis due to weakening supply-demand dynamics is noted [4] - The upcoming maintenance schedules for PTA facilities are limited, and new installations are expected to support PX demand, maintaining price support [4] - Oil price fluctuations due to geopolitical disturbances are anticipated to keep PTA prices relatively strong in the short term [4] Pricing and Costs - As of June 17, PTA spot processing fees are around 232 CNY/ton, while the processing fee for TA2509 is 344 CNY/ton [2] - Spot market transactions for PTA are reported at prices between 4965 and 5050 CNY, with July and August contracts also showing varying price ranges [1]

齐鲁晚报.齐鲁壹点张文珂 国内成品油零售限价迎来年内第五次上调。 国家发展改革委发布消息称，根据近期国际市场油价变化情况，按照现行成品油价格形成机制，自2025年6月17日24时起，国内 汽、柴油价格每吨分别上涨260元和255元。 隆众资讯分析师褚英斌指出，本计价周期虽然汽油柴油整体需求一般，不过受地缘局势因素影响，国际原油价格持续走强，本 轮调价末期更是迎来大幅上行，消息、成本端拉动国内汽油柴油价格上涨。 据卓创资讯（301299）测算，截至6月16日收盘，国内第10个工作日，参考原油变化率6.01%，折合为升价，92号汽油、95号汽 油、0号柴油分别上调0.20元、0.22元以及0.22元。 海岱财经统计，待此次调价落地，年内成品油调整呈现"5涨5跌2搁浅"局面，汽柴油分别累计下调330元/吨、315元/吨。 目前，淄博地区92号成品油国标价为6.93元/升，此次涨价落实后，以"两桶油"为代表的加油站零售价将上调至7.13元/升左右， 重回"7元时代"；95号汽油国标价也将从现有的7.44元/升，上调至7.66元/升左右。 成本方面，按照油箱容量为50L的家用轿车为例，加满一箱92号汽油将增加10元。以 ...

本次上调落地之后，对于广大消费者来说，在下一轮调价周期内，居民驾车出行成本将有所增加。以油 箱容量为50L的家用轿车为例，加满一箱92#汽油多花10元。油耗方面，以月跑2000公里、百公里油耗 在8L的小型私家车为例，到下次调价窗口开启之前，消费者用油成本增加15元左右。物流行业以月跑 10000公里、百公里油耗在38L的重型卡车为例，在下次调价窗口开启前，单辆车的燃油成本将增加390 元左右。 成品油分析师孟鹏告诉山西晚报·山河＋记者，本计价周期内，国际原油价格整体呈现出上涨行情，一 方面是中美经贸磋商谈判，宏观风险偏好明显回升，支撑油价低位反弹；二是中东地缘冲突发生，导致 原油价格宽幅上涨。此外，美国通胀相对温和以及美国原油库存下降，也为油价上涨提供助力。整体来 看，本计价周期，国际油价均值环比上涨明显。受此影响，国内参考的原油变化率持续处于正值水平。 卓创资讯分析认为，中东地缘局势扰动，短期原油价格或维持强劲态势，但需关注事态发展，警惕局势 降温引发油价回落风险。按照当前原油价格测算，重新计算后的变化率将正值高位开局，新周期伊始国 内成品油零售限价存上调预期，下次调价窗口在7月1日24时。 山西晚报·山 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government, led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, is set to explore measures to address the potential impact of rising oil prices due to unrest in the Middle East [1] Group 1 - The government is concerned about the implications of escalating oil prices on the economy [1] - There is an acknowledgment of the need for proactive strategies to mitigate the effects of oil price surges [1] - The situation in the Middle East is identified as a significant factor influencing global oil markets [1]

国际油价持续走强，WTI原油涨幅扩大至5%，伊以冲突解决希望渺茫，特朗普倾向于打击伊朗的核设 施。 WTI原油 ...

智通财经6月18日电，国际油价持续走强，WTI原油涨幅扩大至5%。 ...