Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for commodities and stock index futures is overall neutral, pending fundamental verification [4] Core Viewpoints - Short - term focus on economic fact verification, with attention to sensitive commodities like crude oil, shipping indices, and gold; long - term focus on stagflation allocation [1][3] - The risk of US tariff escalation is rising, which impacts global trade and inflation expectations [2] - Commodities should focus on the transmission of fundamentals, and beware of emotional shocks from US stock adjustments for industrial products [3] Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On May 7, "One Bank, One Administration, and One Commission" introduced a package of financial policies to boost the economy. In April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 0.2% year - on - year, slightly exceeding expectations. Exports to the US decreased by 21% year - on - year, while those to ASEAN increased by 20.8% year - on - year. Labor - intensive product exports were significantly impacted, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.7% [1] - On May 19, the People's Bank of China stated that it would implement and transmit a package of monetary and financial policy measures. On May 20, the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) were lowered to 3% and 3.5% respectively. On May 23, the central bank will conduct a 500 - billion - yuan MLF operation [1] - From May 9 - 12, Vice - Premier He Lifeng held talks with the US during his visit to Switzerland. The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress, with both sides promising to suspend some additional tariffs and establish a consultation mechanism [1] - On May 15, the Ministry of Commerce responded to the adjustment of China's counter - tariff measures against the US, stating that it would adjust accordingly due to the US revocation of additional tariffs on China and expressing an open attitude towards the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism [1] US Tariff Situation - On May 8, the UK and the US reached an agreement on tariff trade agreement terms, with a "tax rate + quota" restriction approach. The UK's exports to the US will face a minimum 10% tariff, and there may be export caps on specific products [2] - On May 17, US Treasury Secretary Besent warned that if countries do not negotiate "sincerely" before the tariff suspension period expires at the beginning of July and fail to reach a trade agreement, tariff rates will return to the "liberation day" level [2] - Japan's chief trade negotiator and Minister of Economic Revitalization Akazawa Ryo will visit the US from May 23 - 25 for trade negotiations. Japan and the US Treasury Secretaries agree that exchange rates should be determined by the market [2] - India and the US are discussing a "three - stage" trade agreement, expected to reach a temporary agreement before early July. South Korea says its foreign exchange negotiations with the US are ongoing and no decision has been made [2] - The US Department of Commerce issued guidelines to strengthen export controls on China's AI - related products. China's Ministry of Commerce responded that implementing US measures would be illegal [2] - On May 13, the US April CPI data was lower than expected, indicating further alleviation of inflation pressure, but the impact of tariffs has not fully reached the consumer end [2] - On May 15, the Fed Chairman said that the Fed is about to adjust the interest rate - setting framework, and the "era of long - term low interest rates" may have ended, putting pressure on short - term Fed rate - cut expectations [2] - Fed Governor Waller said that if tariffs decline, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates in the second half of 2025 [2] - After the Trump tax bill barely passed the House of Representatives, the yield of the US 30 - year Treasury bond rose by more than 2 basis points, reaching 5.123%, the highest intraday level since October 2023 [2] Commodity Market - From the 2018 tariff review, the tariff increase event first trades on the decline in demand and then on the rise in inflation. Industrial products such as black and non - ferrous metals should beware of emotional shocks from US stock adjustments, while agricultural products have a higher probability of price increases due to tariffs [3] - In the energy sector, the price of crude oil has declined. The IEA monthly report lowered the oil demand forecast for this year. OPEC + confirmed a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day in June, and a large - scale production increase in July is under discussion. On May 22, Brent crude futures fell below $64 per barrel, down nearly 1.6% intraday [3] - The EU plans to ban the import of Russian natural gas and liquefied natural gas by the end of 2027, and stop signing new agreements and spot contracts by the end of 2025. The EU and the UK announced a new round of sanctions against Russia on the 20th, targeting Russia's energy construction and finance sectors, and also including Chinese and UAE companies in the sanctions list [3] - The European Commission plans to levy a 2 - euro tax on small packages entering the EU [3] Other Market Conditions - US stock index futures tumbled. The Nasdaq futures fell 0.27% intraday, the S&P 500 index futures fell 0.32%, and the Dow futures fell 0.45% [7] - The yield of Japanese long - term bonds continued to rise. The 40 - year yield rose 6 basis points to 3.675%, reaching the highest level since its issuance in 2007. The 10 - year yield rose 5 basis points to 1.565%, and the 20 - year yield rose 5.5 basis points to 2.595% [7] - The preliminary value of the eurozone's May manufacturing PMI was 49.4, the service PMI was 48.9, and the composite PMI was 49.5, all lower than expected [7]

穆迪下调美国主权信用评级对美国股市、债市的冲击依然在延续，目前看其对美债的负面影响最为显著。截至今日发稿前，美国20年期国债收益率升至 5.105%左右，30年期国债收益率升至5.086%左右，均为2023年10月以来最高位置。 来源：Choice 数据 "卖出美国"音量再起 本周三，20年期美债的公开市场拍卖发行的最高中标利率达到了5.047%，这是史上第二次得标利率超过5%，投标倍数也从近六个月平均水平2.57下降至 2.46，惨淡收场。这是本次美国主权信用评级被下调后的直接结果之一：美债市场受到冲击，价格出现疲软，吸引力出现下降。 长期以来，5%的水平一直被认为是一个重要的心理阈值——一旦越过这个阈值，可能会带来更多的抛售和更高的收益率。 美债价格的高低将直接关系到美元的地位以及美国股市的波动，吸引力下降的美债可能会导致部分避险资金流出美国，从而影响美元地位。而美联储为了 支撑美债而采取的增持行动，从结果看也可近似看做增发美元，引发美元汇率下降。 据新华社报道，美国桥水投资公司创始人瑞·达利欧近日警告，穆迪对美国主权信用评级的下调文件描述中，对美国债务风险"轻描淡写"，穆迪未计入可 能因为超印美元自购美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody's, leading to significant market reactions including a drop in stock prices and rising bond yields, indicating a potential crisis in the US debt market [2][3][11]. Group 1: US Debt Market Reactions - The 20-year US Treasury bond auction on May 22 resulted in a disappointing yield of 5.047%, marking the second time this yield has surpassed 5% [2][6]. - Following the auction, the yield on the 20-year Treasury bond rose to 5.127%, the highest level since November 2023 [8]. - The overall demand for the auction was slightly below average, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.46, the lowest since February [8]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Concerns - The US federal government debt has exceeded $36 trillion, with a projected fiscal deficit of $1.83 trillion for 2024, and a record deficit of $3.13 trillion in 2020 [11][12]. - The public debt rate has reached 97.8%, with projections indicating it could rise to 107.2% by 2029 [18]. - The article highlights concerns that foreign investors are reluctant to fund the US's dual deficits at current price levels, as evidenced by a declining dollar index [11]. Group 3: Global Impact and Comparisons - The turmoil in the US debt market has triggered a "earthquake" in the Japanese bond market, with Japan's 20-year bond auction yielding the worst results since 2012 [20]. - Japan's government debt has reached 1,323.72 trillion yen, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 232.7%, significantly higher than Greece during its debt crisis [22]. - Analysts warn that Japan could become a potential center for global financial risk due to its precarious fiscal situation [22].

美国财政状况的持续恶化是美元走弱的重要原因之一。国际信用评级机构穆迪本月16日宣布，将美国主权信用评级从Aaa下调至Aa1，理由是美国 政府债务和利息支付比例增加。这一消息对市场信心造成冲击，在穆迪宣布降级后的首个交易日，30年期美国国债收益率盘中突破5%，美元对10 种非美货币汇率下跌。 【环球网财经综合报道】近期，金融市场美元走势备受关注，美元指数一路下挫，市场对美国经济及财政状况的担忧情绪不断升温。 22日晚间消息显示，美国30年期国债收益率短线拉升，日内上升逾2个基点，报5.123%，达到2023年10月以来的最高日内水平，距离2007年以来 的最高点越来越近。这反映出投资者对特朗普减税计划表示反对，对财政赤字的担忧开始对市场产生压力。 5月21日，衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数再次跌破100整数关口，这是其连续第三个交易日下跌。5月22日盘中，美元指数延续弱势震荡态 势，最低触及99.43。其中，美元兑日元汇率一度下跌0.6%至142.81，创下两周以来的新低。自今年1月达到高点以来，美元指数累计跌幅已接近 10%，市场看空情绪愈发浓厚。 彭博社援引相关指标指出，货币期权交易员对美元今后一年走势的 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results with the Dow Jones remaining flat, the S&P 500 down by 0.04%, and the Nasdaq up by 0.28% [1][3] - The approval of Trump's tax reform plan by the House of Representatives raised concerns about increasing U.S. fiscal deficit, leading to selling pressure in the long-term U.S. Treasury market [1][8] Treasury Yields - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield reached approximately 5.15%, marking a new high since October 2023, before retreating during the trading session [8][10] - The rise in long-term Treasury yields may exacerbate market concerns regarding the economy, as these rates serve as benchmarks for consumer loans such as mortgages [10] Sector Performance - Large technology stocks mostly rose, with the U.S. Technology Seven Index increasing by 0.6%. Notable individual stock performances included Tesla up nearly 2%, Google up over 1%, and Amazon up nearly 1% [5] - Bank stocks generally rose, with Goldman Sachs up 0.77% and Morgan Stanley up 0.76%, while energy stocks fell across the board, with ExxonMobil down 0.68% and Chevron down 0.21% [7] - Chinese concept stocks mostly declined, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 1.18% and notable drops in stocks like Xpeng Motors down over 7% [7] Commodity Prices - Gold prices fell, with London gold down 0.6% to $3,294.49 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures down 0.56% to $3,295.10 per ounce [12] - International oil prices also continued to decline, with WTI crude futures down 1.23% and ICE Brent crude down 1.29% [13]

当地时间5月22日周四，美股收盘涨跌不一，道指基本持平，标普500指数跌0.04%，纳指涨0.28%。 美国众议院以微弱票数批准特朗普税改方案后，市场忧虑美国财政赤字风险上升。受此影响，美国长期国债市场面临抛售压力，30年期国债收益率持续上 行，创下自2023年10月以来新高。 美股三大指数走势分化 美国国债收益率大幅攀升 当地时间周四，美股三大指数走势分化。Wind数据显示，截至收盘，道指基本收平，报41859.09点；标普500指数跌0.04%，报5842.01点；纳指涨0.28%， 报18925.73点。 板块方面，大型科技股多数上涨，万得美国科技七巨头指数涨0.6%。个股方面，特斯拉涨近2%，谷歌涨逾1%，亚马逊涨近1%，英伟达涨0.78%，微软涨 0.51%，脸书涨0.17%，苹果跌0.36%。 银行股多数上涨，摩根大通跌0.14%，高盛涨0.77%，花旗跌0.03%，摩根士丹利涨0.76%，美国银行涨0.12%，富国银行涨0.2%。 能源股全线走低，埃克森美孚跌0.68%，雪佛龙跌0.21%，康菲石油跌超1%，斯伦贝谢跌0.38%，西方石油跌0.15%。 中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌1. ...

美股整体市场维持窄幅震荡格局，但美债市场的动荡仍在持续。其中，美国30年期国债收益率一度升至5.149%，为2023年10月以来最高水平；美国5—30年期国债 收益率曲线陡峭程度一度扩大至100个基点。美联储理事沃勒表示，美联储不会在一级拍卖中购买债券。 有分析称，随着大型投资者开始逐步将美国国债换成其他避险资产，美国的偿债成本将继续攀升，这可能给美元带来进一步的下行压力，并降低美国股市的吸引 力。 美股太阳能板块突遭重击。 今晚，美股开盘后，美股太阳能板块全线暴跌，Sunrun一度暴跌超42%，SolarEdge盘初大跌超26%，Complete Solaria大跌超17%。消息面上，美国总统特朗普签署 的减税法案在众议院以微弱优势通过，该法案可能会终止支持可再生能源行业的众多绿色能源补贴。 美股太阳能板块重挫 北京时间5月22日晚间，美股开盘后，三大指数震荡分化，截至22:30，道指跌0.2%，纳指涨0.51%，标普500指数微跌0.06%。 其中，美股太阳能板块全线暴跌，Sunrun一度暴跌超42%，SolarEdge一度大跌超26%，Complete Solaria大跌超17%，Enphase Ene ...

"当收益率上升与经济增长强劲挂钩时，股市尚可消化，"瑞士宝盛股票策略主管马蒂厄·拉赫特指出，"但若由通胀恐惧或财政忧虑驱动利率走高，则往往会 削弱股票估值。" 智通财经APP注意到，在特朗普总统的税改法案以微弱优势通过众议院后，美国长期国债和股指期货重返跌势。 30年期国债收益率逼近5.14%，距离金融危机时期高点仅一步之遥。标普500指数期货下跌0.3%，预示该基准指数可能连续第三日收跌。美元汇率震荡波 动，比特币则继续刷新历史高位。原油价格回落。 美国立法者推进的这项涉及数万亿美元的庞大法案，虽避免了年终增税，却以加重联邦债务负担为代价。 此前穆迪评级下调已将不断膨胀的财政赤字问题推向风口浪尖。这种担忧体现在国债市场上——就在标普500指数反弹至牛市边缘之际，债市情绪再度受 挫。 花旗集团策略师贝娅塔·曼特在接受采访时表示，"债券义警卷土重来，""市场正在担忧债务可持续性。考虑到股市刚刚出现的强劲反弹，这种局面相当不 利。" 周四，10年期美债收益率上升1个基点至4.61%。债市担忧在于，当投资者对美国资产的兴趣减弱时，该税法案将使本已庞大的赤字再增数万亿美元。 策略师马克·克兰菲尔德分析称，法案通过虽不 ...

美元，再遭抛售！ 最近几天，美元持续下挫。5月21日，衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数再次跌破100，这也是美元连续第三 天下跌。5月22日盘中，美元指数继续弱势震荡，盘中最低触及99.43。其中，美元兑日元一度下跌0.6%至 142.81，创两周新低。 自今年1月高点以来，美元指数的累计跌幅已接近10%。彭博社指出，一项指标表明，货币期权交易员对美元 今后一年间走势的看空情绪达到历史顶峰。 此外，22日晚间消息，在特朗普税收法案勉强通过众议院后，美国30年期国债收益率短线拉升，日内上升逾2 个基点，报5.123%，为2023年10月以来的最高日内水平，距离2007年以来的最高点越来越近。这表明投资者 对特朗普的减税计划表示反对，对财政赤字的担忧也开始对股市产生越来越大的压力。 值得关注的是，在美元被抛售的同时，比特币却受到资金追捧。22日，比特币大涨超4%并突破11万美元大 关，创出历史新高。有分析指出，比特币升至历史新高，原因之一是投资者寻求美国资产的替代品。此外，美 国监管利好，也提振了加密货币市场。 22日，美股加密货币概念股盘前集体上涨，CleanSpark涨超5.6%， MARA Holdings ...

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank warns that the biggest threat to the US dollar may stem from the US government's own fiscal situation, with the fiscal uncertainty index reaching a historical high due to ongoing disputes over tax reform and budget deficits [1][4]. Group 1: Fiscal Situation and Debt Market - The US fiscal uncertainty index has surged to a historical high, primarily driven by continuous debates surrounding tax reform, fiscal deficits, and long-term budget outlooks [4][6]. - Despite a relatively strong economic backdrop, the US fiscal deficit remains exceptionally large and unsustainable, contradicting historical patterns where deficits correlate with high unemployment rates [4][6]. - Investor interest in US Treasuries is waning, as evidenced by the 30-year and 20-year Treasury yields both surpassing 5%, yet the latest 20-year Treasury auction results were disappointing, indicating a quiet withdrawal of foreign capital [3][6]. Group 2: Domestic vs. Foreign Investment - Historically, foreign investors have been the primary buyers of US Treasuries, and if this trend of withdrawal continues, the question of who will step in to purchase these bonds becomes critical [6][7]. - Domestic institutions may be incentivized to buy US Treasuries due to high yields, but their holdings in the Treasury market have significantly decreased compared to decades past, and they are less sensitive to US fiscal deficits than foreign investors [7][9]. - Even if domestic investors increase their Treasury purchases, it may not prevent the dollar from weakening, as they lack sufficient overseas assets to offset the outflow of foreign capital [7][11]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Domestic institutions currently hold a historically high position in the stock market, and any significant shift towards increasing Treasury allocations would likely require them to reduce their stock holdings, potentially leading to a chain reaction in the markets [9][11]. - Overall, while domestic institutions may find opportunities in US Treasuries, the ongoing withdrawal of foreign investors poses a clear downside risk for the US dollar [11].