Core Viewpoint - In 2025, global central banks made a significant shift by prioritizing gold over U.S. Treasury bonds as their primary reserve asset, marking the first time since 1996 that gold surpassed U.S. debt in global central bank reserves, with gold valued at approximately $3.93 trillion compared to $3.88 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds [1][3]. Group 1: Central Bank Behavior - Central banks have been purchasing gold at record levels, with net purchases exceeding 1,000 tons annually for the past three years, nearly double the average of the previous decade [3]. - As of June 2025, 95% of surveyed central banks indicated plans to continue increasing their gold reserves, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2019 [3]. - Emerging economies, particularly Russia and China, have significantly increased their gold holdings, with Russia accumulating 915 tons and China 544 tons over the past decade [5]. Group 2: Dollar Credibility and Economic Context - The safety of dollar assets has come under scrutiny, especially after the U.S. imposed sanctions on Russia, leading to a realization that dollar reserves could also be "weaponized," undermining the long-standing consensus on the safety of the dollar as a reserve asset [5]. - As of 2025, the U.S. national debt exceeded $37 trillion, with annual interest payments surpassing $1 trillion, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt [5]. - The dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has dropped to 42%, with the International Monetary Fund reporting a decline to 56.32% in mid-2025, the lowest since 1995 [15]. Group 3: Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices have surged from $1,618 per ounce before the Fed's rate hike cycle began in 2022 to $4,584 per ounce by the end of 2025, reflecting a cumulative increase of nearly 180% [10]. - Analysts predict continued bullish trends for gold, with Goldman Sachs raising its price target to $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and suggesting potential spikes to $4,500 or even $5,000 per ounce under certain conditions [16]. - The trading volume in the gold market reached a historical high in October 2025, with daily trading averaging $561 billion, a 45% increase from previous levels [18].

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration's legislative action in early 2026 aims to pressure seven countries, including China, India, and Brazil, to cut off oil imports from Russia, reflecting a continuation of the U.S. strategy to contain Russia and reassert dominance in the global energy landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Brazil - Brazil has become the second-largest importer of Russian diesel, with imports exceeding 7 million tons in 2024, driven by structural demand [4][6]. - Over 20% of Brazil's diesel supply relies on imports, with Russian diesel priced at $0.54 per liter, significantly lower than local refinery prices, impacting transportation costs and inflation [6][8]. - The Brazilian government has expressed opposition to unilateral sanctions, emphasizing that normal international trade should not be politically coerced [7][8]. Group 2: India's Position - India, the third-largest crude oil importer, saw its dependence on Russian oil peak in November 2025, with Russian oil accounting for 35.1% of total imports [11]. - Despite U.S. tariffs of up to 50% on some Indian exports, India has not issued a directive to halt Russian oil imports due to the stability and affordability of Russian oil [12]. - India's strategy reflects a balance between not openly opposing the U.S. while prioritizing its own economic interests, indicating a pragmatic approach to energy security [12][13]. Group 3: China's Response - Following the U.S. sanctions, China firmly opposed unilateral sanctions, asserting that energy cooperation with Russia is a normal trade practice [13][15]. - In 2024, China imported 108.47 million tons of crude oil from Russia, making it the largest supplier, and is advancing projects like the "Power of Siberia" gas pipeline [16][17]. - The deepening energy cooperation between China and Russia includes a shift towards local currency settlements, reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar [20][22]. Group 4: Broader Implications - The U.S. sanctions are perceived as ineffective against the backdrop of the economic interdependence of these nations, which prioritize their own interests over U.S. directives [22][24]. - The geopolitical landscape is shifting towards a multipolar world, where countries are increasingly questioning the fairness of U.S.-led rules and seeking alternative arrangements [24][36]. - The ongoing energy cooperation among China, India, and Brazil represents a challenge to U.S. dominance, as these nations assert their economic sovereignty against external pressures [35][39].

2025年12月25日，离岸人民币对美元汇率盘中升破7.0元关口，最高触及6.9985，创下15个月新高。 这道看似简单的汇率曲线，背后是一场持续整年的全球 资本重配：人民币对美元全年升值突破3.5%，美元指数则从年初的110点高位跌至97点左右，跌幅接近10%。 美元疲软的直接推手是美联储的政策转向。 2025年9月，美联储宣布降息25个基点，这是2025年以来的首次降息。 而在此之前，特朗普政府对外加征关税、 对内实施减税的政策，已经加剧了市场对美国债务可持续性的担忧。 美国联邦政府的债务已攀升至37万亿美元，每年仅债务利息支出就超过1万亿美元，这 给美元带来了沉重压力。 美联储的降息决策并非完全出于经济考量。 特朗普自上任以来持续向美联储施压，甚至安插亲信进入理事会。 这种政治干预让美联储的独立性受到质疑， 鲍威尔在新闻发布会上强调"就看我们怎么做"来维护央行独立性，但市场明显不相信降息只是单纯的经济决策。 人民币的强势崛起背后是中国经济基本面的坚实支撑。 2025年前11个月，中国货物贸易顺差达1.0758万亿美元，充足的外汇储备为人民币汇率提供了坚实基 础。 外资配置人民币资产的兴趣明显增强，上半年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The sudden drop in gold prices on January 8, 2026, was primarily driven by algorithmic trading triggered by the annual rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index, leading to forced sales of approximately $4.7 billion to $6 billion in gold holdings [1][3][10] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices fell over 2%, reaching a low of $4,423.49 per ounce due to algorithmic selling and a lack of liquidity in the market [1][3] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised gold futures margin requirements by 10% and silver by 13.6%, forcing high-leverage traders to liquidate positions, exacerbating the price drop [3][10] - A significant increase in selling pressure was observed, with 50,000 contracts sold within half an hour after prices breached the $4,450 mark, creating a feedback loop of selling [3][10] Group 2: Physical Demand and Market Segmentation - Despite the price drop, physical gold buying surged in Asia, with jewelry sales in China and India increasing by 20% [3][10] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange saw its Au99.99 contract fluctuate between 1,000 and 1,006 CNY, closing at 1,003.52 CNY, indicating a slight increase [5] - Brand gold jewelry prices rose, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang seeing prices exceed 1,390 CNY, reflecting a 40 CNY increase since New Year's [5] Group 3: Investor Behavior and Sentiment - Retail investors displayed mixed reactions; some panicked and sold, while others took the opportunity to accumulate more gold [6][10] - The SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold ETF, reduced its holdings by 6 tons in the first week of January, indicating a shift in investment focus towards U.S. tech stocks [10] - Analysts are divided on the outlook for gold, with some suggesting the bull market remains intact while others warn of potential corrections of 5% to 20% due to technical overbought conditions [10] Group 4: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, such as U.S. military actions in Venezuela and discussions about acquiring Greenland, are seen as potential long-term drivers for gold prices [8][10] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, reaching 74.15 million ounces, highlighting a trend of "de-dollarization" among emerging markets [8]

Group 1 - Central banks globally are increasingly accumulating gold, with nearly half planning to continue purchasing in the next year, indicating a significant shift in investment strategy [1][7] - The global central bank gold holdings are projected to surpass U.S. Treasury holdings by mid-2025 for the first time since 1996, reflecting a growing preference for gold over U.S. debt [3][5] - Over 90% of central banks believe the current "gold rush" will persist, with no central bank planning to reduce their gold holdings, showcasing a strong consensus among these institutions [7] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves has dropped from 72% to 57.8%, indicating a decline in confidence in the dollar [9] - The U.S. government's financial pressures, including significant interest payments on debt, are causing concerns among other nations about the reliability of the dollar as a reserve currency [11] - A notable trend is the repatriation of gold by central banks, with 59% choosing to store their gold domestically by 2025, a significant increase from previous years [11] Group 3 - Emerging economies are actively increasing their gold reserves, viewing it as both an investment and a symbol of national status, similar to how individuals save for property [11] - The cross-border use of the Chinese yuan has surged, with a 35% increase in transactions with ASEAN, and the yuan's acceptance is expanding into Africa and the Middle East [12] - China's gold reserves currently represent only 4.2% of its foreign exchange reserves, indicating substantial potential for growth in gold purchases to reach G20 averages [14] Group 4 - The World Bank predicts that gold's share in global reserve assets could rise from 13% to 22% by 2030, suggesting a potential resurgence of gold as a key component of the monetary system [14] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has seen a 47% year-on-year increase in trading volume, reflecting heightened domestic interest in gold investments [14]

Report Title - "Hualian Futures Gold Weekly Report: Short-term High-level Volatility, Long-term Upward Logic Remains Unchanged" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the price increases of the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indexes were 70.63% and 64.56% respectively; in the first week of 2026, they were 3.69% and 3.96% respectively [7][29] - Inflation data has shown a downward trend, with the US core CPI in November rising at the slowest pace since early 2021, which is favorable for the Fed to cut interest rates [7][33] - US Treasury yields have been fluctuating downward, and real interest rates rose slightly in November [7][38][43] - The global gold supply and demand were in a loose state in 2024, while the domestic supply and demand were in a tight balance. In 2025, investment demand increased significantly both globally and domestically [7][56] - The US economy showed mixed signals, with non - farm employment slightly lower than expected but the unemployment rate falling unexpectedly [7][50] - It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates twice in 2026, and factors such as the decline in the global US dollar reserve ratio and the increase in the US fiscal deficit are favorable for the long - term rise of gold prices. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold in the medium term and set stop - profits in the short term [11] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Views and Strategies Fundamental Views - Gold price trends: In 2025, the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indexes had significant increases, and they also rose in the first week of 2026 [7][29] - Inflation situation: CPI and PCE peaked in June 2022 and then declined. Core inflation has been relatively stable, and the slow rise of the core CPI in November is conducive to interest rate cuts [7][33] - Interest rate trends: US medium - term Treasury yields have been fluctuating downward since mid - to late October 2023, and real interest rates rose in November [7][38][43] - Supply and demand: The global gold supply and demand were loose in 2024, and the domestic supply and demand were in a tight balance. Investment demand increased significantly in 2025, and domestic jewelry demand may continue to decline in 2026 [7][56] - US economic data: The non - farm employment growth in December was lower than expected, but the unemployment rate was lower than expected. The average hourly wage growth of non - farm employees continued to decline [7][50] Strategy Views and Outlook - Outlook: Gold futures contracts were in a high - level volatile state last week. The Fed's potential interest rate cuts in 2026, the decline in the global US dollar reserve ratio, and the increase in the US fiscal deficit are all favorable for gold prices. It is expected that gold will maintain an upward trend in the first half of 2026 [11] - Operation suggestions: Hold long positions in gold in the medium term and set stop - profits in the short term. For options, take profits on call options and then observe [11] 2. Spot and Futures Markets - Last week, gold prices were in a high - level volatile state, with the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indexes rising in 2025 and the first week of 2026 [23][29] 3. Inflation and Interest Rates - Inflation: CPI and PCE peaked in June 2022 and then declined. Core inflation has been stable, and the slow rise of the core CPI in November is conducive to the Fed's interest rate cuts [33] - Interest rates: US medium - term Treasury yields have been fluctuating downward since mid - to late October 2023, and real interest rates rose in November [38][43] 4. US Economy - GDP: The US GDP increased by 2.33% year - on - year in the third quarter of 2025, up from 2.08% in the second quarter [46] - PMI: The ISM manufacturing PMI in December 2025 continued to decline, while the non - manufacturing PMI continued to strengthen [46] - Non - farm employment: The non - farm employment growth in December was lower than expected, but the unemployment rate was lower than expected. The average hourly wage growth of non - farm employees continued to decline [50] 5. Gold Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - Global: The supply and demand were in a loose state in 2024 due to inventory increases, and central bank gold purchases remained above 1000 tons. Investment demand increased significantly in 2025 [56] - Domestic: The supply and demand were in a tight balance in 2024, and investment demand increased significantly in 2025. Domestic jewelry demand may continue to decline in 2026 due to the new gold tax policy [56] 6. Exchange Rate and US Dollar Index - Not elaborated on specific trends and impacts in the provided content 7. Gold Domestic - International Price Spread - The price spread between the domestic and international gold markets is within a reasonable range, but no specific data or analysis is provided [87] 8. Gold Basis - Not mentioned in the provided content 9. Gold - Silver - Oil Ratio - Not elaborated on specific trends and impacts in the provided content

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for non-ferrous metals remains optimistic for 2026, with expectations of continued price increases driven by macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics, despite concerns about high valuations and potential risks in the market [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown strong performance, with the China Nonferrous Metals Index rising over 8% since the beginning of the year, reaching a historical high of 3369 points on January 9 [1]. - In 2025, the China Nonferrous Metals Index recorded a cumulative increase of 91.67%, with leading stocks like Luoyang Molybdenum and Jiangxi Copper seeing price increases of 200.7% and 166% respectively [2]. - The futures market also reflected this trend, with LME copper futures prices increasing by over 40% in 2025, and LME tin and aluminum rising by 39% and 17% respectively [2]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest that the demand for metals such as copper and aluminum will continue to rise due to increased global electricity construction and investment in power infrastructure, which is expected to outpace GDP growth [2][6]. - The electric aluminum sector is anticipated to mirror the coal market's performance from 2022 to 2024, with limited supply and high dividend yields making it attractive for value investors [3]. - The ongoing macroeconomic environment, including potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, is expected to create a favorable backdrop for both precious and non-ferrous metals [6]. Group 3: Institutional Activity and Caution - There has been a surge in public fund applications for non-ferrous metal-themed ETFs, indicating strong institutional interest in the sector [4]. - Despite the positive sentiment, there is a growing caution among market participants regarding high valuations, with the price-to-book ratio of the non-ferrous sector rising from 2 to approximately 3.5 [6]. - Analysts recommend a balanced approach, advising against blindly chasing high valuations while recognizing the ongoing demand and investment opportunities in the sector [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market is undergoing a profound paradigm shift due to escalating geopolitical tensions and the restructuring of global supply chains, moving from a "just-in-time" model to a "just-in-case" inventory accumulation strategy [1][2]. Group 1: Supply Chain Transformation - Major economies are transitioning from a reliance on minimal commercial inventories to large-scale strategic reserves to mitigate risks from potential wars, shipping disruptions, or geopolitical blockades [2]. - This shift is driven by an extreme desire for security, reshaping the supply-demand dynamics of various commodities, particularly energy and strategic metals [3][4]. Group 2: Price Volatility and Investment Opportunities - Prices of critical military metals like tungsten and cobalt have experienced significant volatility, with projected price increases of 229% and 120% respectively by 2025 [5][15]. - The new trading narrative for investors includes a focus on gold as a hedge against credit risk and a bullish outlook on metals driven by national security demands, especially as defense budgets rise significantly [6][15]. Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - The low-trust global environment has shifted priorities from efficiency to survival, with countries now prioritizing physical ownership of commodities [9]. - The U.S. is reinforcing its energy security, with strategic actions reflecting a long-term focus on resource control to ensure absolute security [12][13]. Group 4: Gold and De-dollarization - The global de-dollarization process is fundamentally changing the pricing logic of gold, with central banks accelerating their shift from dollar reserves to gold [16]. - If the top 50 central banks increase their gold reserves by just 1%, it could potentially raise gold prices by approximately $1,000 [17]. Group 5: Market Implications - The macro narrative shift presents direct investment implications, with recommendations for investors to focus on capital market opportunities related to defense stocks and commodity ETFs [18]. - Mining stocks, particularly gold mining companies, are also positioned to benefit, as evidenced by record profits across tracked gold miners [20].

Core Insights - The global economic landscape is becoming increasingly polarized, with the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle and a rising trend of de-dollarization, prompting investors to reassess their asset portfolios [1] - Hong Kong is emerging as a strategic hub for global asset management, attracting international investment firms due to its unique institutional advantages and comprehensive financial ecosystem [1][2] - The influx of capital into Hong Kong has accelerated since 2024, with total assets under management increasing by 13% year-on-year and net inflows surging by 81%, reaching a total of 35 trillion HKD by the end of 2024 [1] Group 1: Investment Trends - Hong Kong is becoming a key destination for mainland Chinese capital seeking global allocation, handling approximately 80% of offshore RMB transactions [2] - The "Cross-Border Wealth Management Connect 2.0" initiative has significantly increased the number of accounts for mainland investors in Hong Kong wealth products from 25,000 to 110,000 [2] - The asset management market in Hong Kong is characterized by a diverse investor base, with overseas investors consistently holding over 54% of assets [1][2] Group 2: Institutional Strategies - International asset management giants are establishing Hong Kong as a core point for their Asian strategies, with firms like PIMCO focusing on fixed income and alternative assets [3] - Future Asset is leveraging its expertise in industry sectors such as renewable energy and semiconductors to identify investment opportunities in Hong Kong [4] - Southern Eastern, a major ETF issuer in Hong Kong, has seen significant growth, managing 36 ETFs and achieving a market share of 87% in the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape between domestic and international institutions is becoming more pronounced, with domestic firms capitalizing on their understanding of mainland needs and international firms leveraging their global research capabilities [2][6] - Fidelity International is focusing on active management strategies, emphasizing the potential for growth in the Hong Kong market [6] - Invesco is utilizing Hong Kong's offshore RMB status to create a cross-border investment platform, aligning with global asset allocation trends [7] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - International investors view Chinese assets as a long-term value proposition, particularly given their low correlation with U.S. equities [8][9] - The Hong Kong IPO market is expected to remain robust, driven by the fundraising needs of Chinese companies and ongoing reforms by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [10] - The anticipated economic growth in China and the continued appeal of Hong Kong as a hub for foreign investment are expected to sustain momentum in 2026 [11]

Group 1 - Trump's statement about the U.S. controlling 55% of global oil is linked to recent military actions in Venezuela, where the U.S. aims to dominate oil resource development [3] - Current OPEC data shows that Venezuela holds 19% of the world's proven oil reserves, while the U.S. only holds 3%, making Trump's claim of 55% unrealistic [3] - The combined oil production of the U.S. and Venezuela is projected to be less than 15% of global production in 2025, further questioning the feasibility of Trump's assertion [3] Group 2 - The U.S. is interested in Venezuela's oil reserves due to its significant proven reserves, and aims to control these resources through military intervention [5] - The U.S. seeks to weaken OPEC+ by disrupting its influence on global oil prices through control of Venezuelan oil [5] - The U.S. aims to reinforce the dominance of the petrodollar by linking Venezuelan oil exports to the U.S. dollar amidst a global trend of de-dollarization [5] Group 3 - The global oil supply chain may become polarized, with the U.S. potentially linking oil distribution to compliance with its policies, affecting many countries' energy strategies [7] - A low oil price cycle may be on the horizon due to increased production from the U.S. and Middle Eastern countries, alongside a slowdown in global oil demand [7] - The assertion of U.S. energy control reflects a broader strategy to reshape global energy order, raising concerns about geopolitical stability and energy security for importing nations [9]