从商品属性看，白银价格本轮上涨的核心驱动因素是战略储备与产业需求。2025年8月，美国将白银列 入关键矿产清单，引发全球战略收储预期。叠加人工智能、算力芯片等产业对白银的需求激增，白银 2025年全球缺口达3600吨，占需求端的10%，预计2026年缺口将进一步扩大，长期对价格形成强支撑。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：期货日报 近期贵金属市场出现显著波动，国际金价与白银价格均经历大幅回调，市场震荡加剧。针对这一行情， 齐盛期货贵金属首席分析师刘旭峰在期货日报"大势观澜"直播访谈中，从商品、金融、货币三大属性切 入，解析了市场波动逻辑，并对后市走势作了展望。 谈及近期贵金属大跌，刘旭峰表示，核心症结在于流动性风险。当前海外金融市场现金流不足，美国隔 夜逆回购规模处于历史极低水平，银行准备金也跌破关键关口。市场流动性"弹药"紧缺时，一旦某类资 产暴跌，便可能引发止损踩踏，导致全品类资产承压，此次贵金属下跌正是这一逻辑的体现。不过，他 认为，流动性风险是否扩散仍需观察，短期市场在大幅下跌后存在超跌反弹的技术性修复需求，但外盘 黄金现货价格在5000~5100美元/盎司大概 ...

中金研究 我们认为美联储短期或难"缩表"，但持续"扩表"与QE的门槛也明显上升。如果美联储不愿通过"扩表"支 持财政宽松，一个新的临时性货币-财政协同方式可能是美联储增加降息幅度，财政部增加短债发行， 首先推动金融去监管，然后再开启"缩表"进程。美联储最终降息幅度或超出市场预期，美元宽松交易可 能在短期回归。美债收益率曲线陡峭化叠加金融去监管，利好美国银行股票。美联储或将决定黄金牛市 的终点，但这一拐点尚未到来。中国股票与全球商品只是暂时承压，静待宽松预期回归。 我们认为不宜将沃什过往政策立场线性外推为实际政策选择，而需同时考虑政治约束、经济约束与金融 约束，审慎评估沃什各项主张的可行性，推演未来政策着力点与实施顺序。我们的推演显示，新一届美 联储的政策路径可能比当前市场定价更加鸽派，美元流动性这一主线尚未被实质性动摇，美元宽松交易 或在短期回归，中长期市场趋势将待时间验证。 短期难以推进"缩表"，但QE与持续"扩表"的门槛也明显上升。 "降息+缩表"政策组合是沃什主张中最令人困惑的一点。沃什本人解释为缩表可以降低通胀，为降息打 开空间。但是从逻辑上讲，缩表作为紧缩性货币政策，其效果不仅与降息方向相反，也与特 ...

中金研究 我们认为美联储短期或难"缩表"，但持续"扩表"与QE的门槛也明显上升。如果美联储不愿通过"扩表"支持财政宽松，一个新的临时性货币-财政协同 方式可能是美联储增加降息幅度，财政部增加短债发行，首先推动金融去监管，然后再开启"缩表"进程。美联储最终降息幅度或超出市场预期，美元 宽松交易可能在短期回归。美债收益率曲线陡峭化叠加金融去监管，利好美国银行股票。美联储或将决定黄金牛市的终点，但这一拐点尚未到来。中 国股票与全球商品只是暂时承压，静待宽松预期回归。 点击小程序查看报告原文 文/中金大类资产研究：李昭，杨晓卿 图表1：特朗普提名沃什为下一届美联储主席后，黄金、股票、商品全线回调 资料来源：Wind，iFinD，中金公司研究部 过去一年时间，AI科技浪潮与美元流动性是全球市场两大主线。货币秩序重构，美元趋于贬值，推动美元流动性宽松，是黄金与股票全线上涨、中国股票 跑赢美国股票的最关键基石（ 《大类资产2026年展望：乘势而上》 ）。如果沃什最终成功收缩美联储资产负债表，则可部分修复美元信誉，延缓"去美元 化"进程，并收紧美元流动性，会直接动摇美元流动性这一市场主线，逆转全球市场趋势。 我们认为 不宜将 ...

黄金、白银市场多空博弈加剧。新华社发 深圳商报记者 邱清月 近来全球金银价格呈现"冲高回落、震荡运行"的态势。受美联储货币政策预期、全球央行购金趋势及国内消 费投资需求等多重因素影响，黄金、白银市场多空博弈加剧，经历着惊心动魄的"过山车"行情，线下店铺投 资和回收市场热闹非凡。 业内人士认为，此次金银价格的极端波动是技术性调整与政策预期变化共同作用的结果，短期高波动性或持 续，但长期牛市基本面未改，后续价格有望逐步回归平稳震荡。 国内金银市场实物交易目前呈现"消费热"与"回收热"并存的独特格局，交易活跃度持续提升。在消费端，节 日消费与保值需求共同推动购金热情，品牌金店常出现排队购金场景，即便金价震荡，热门款式仍供不应 求。截至2月5日，周大福、老凤祥黄金零售价格分别报1555.0元/克、1568.0元/克，较年初仍处于高位；在回 收端，金银价格波动点燃变现意愿，银行、品牌金店、典当行等多元渠道全面升温，深圳水贝回收门店出现 排队现象，部分消费者变现盈利可观，不过不同渠道在定价、门槛上存在差异，消费者需要选择正规渠道回 收。 有望回归平稳走势 后续随着美联储货币政策走向逐渐明朗、全球地缘风险变化及国内消费场景 ...

Group 1 - The core logic driving gold prices remains intact, focusing on asset diversification and the ongoing trend of de-dollarization, as well as the expansion of U.S. government debt which complicates the execution of balance sheet reduction [2][5] - The supply-demand balance for cyclical commodities remains tight, and once market volatility decreases and stabilizes, the non-ferrous metals sector may present a more suitable entry point for investors [3][4] - The non-ferrous metals industry has shown strong profitability, with the sector outperforming others in the A-share market over the past three years, indicating a shift in investor perception towards more stable earnings in this sector [4][5] Group 2 - Recent adjustments in the A-share market were influenced by profit-taking after significant short-term gains and changes in external liquidity expectations, particularly concerns regarding the new Federal Reserve chair's potential hawkish stance [4][5] - The demand for copper is expected to remain robust due to strong global investment in electrical grids and strategic stockpiling plans in both China and the U.S., which supports higher copper prices [4][5] - The chemical industry has shown weak performance over the past two years, with potential for a rebound, but the supply-demand dynamics are not as favorable as those in the non-ferrous sector [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The surge in U.S. federal debt, which surpassed $38 trillion, is not merely a market spectacle but a systemic risk that will shape global wealth distribution for the next decade [1] Group 1: Debt and Interest Dynamics - U.S. federal debt has increased by $10.73 trillion over five years, with an average interest rate rising to 3.362%, creating a self-reinforcing spiral of fiscal deficit and interest burden [1] - Interest expenditures are projected to reach $970 billion in FY 2025, accounting for 13.8% of total expenditures, with forecasts indicating that interest will exceed $1 trillion in FY 2026, rivaling defense spending [3] Group 2: Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign ownership of U.S. Treasury bonds has decreased from a peak of 40% to approximately 15%, indicating a gradual but firm shift in investment strategy [5] - Central banks are selling U.S. debt and significantly increasing gold purchases, with India doubling its gold reserves, reflecting a long-term redesign of reserve structures [5] Group 3: Global Currency Dynamics - The share of the U.S. dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has fallen to 56.32%, the lowest in 30 years, indicating a shift in risk perception among asset holders [7] - The International Monetary Fund has warned that global public debt is nearing 100% of GDP, with U.S. debt at 124% of GDP, reminiscent of post-World War II levels [7] Group 4: Market Reactions and Asset Shifts - Gold prices have surged from $2,607 to a peak of $4,310, a 65% increase, driven by central bank and sovereign wealth fund purchases, highlighting gold's renewed importance as a value anchor [9] - China's actions include increasing gold reserves significantly while reducing U.S. Treasury holdings from $784.3 billion to $68.26 billion, marking the lowest level since 2008 [9] Group 5: Policy Implications and Strategic Responses - The rapid expansion of debt and rising interest rates are attributed to misalignments in fiscal and monetary policies, with attempts to print money potentially leading to market confidence erosion [11] - Emerging markets, including China, are advised to diversify foreign exchange reserves, enhance currency swap mechanisms, and deepen domestic capital markets to mitigate reliance on a single reserve currency [15] Group 6: Structural Changes in Global Finance - The current situation is characterized as a significant reshuffling of the global reserve and trust system, necessitating proactive adjustments to convert risks into opportunities [17] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are driving countries to explore non-dollar settlement options, indicating a shift towards regional financial cooperation and currency diversification [13]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced significant volatility, with international gold prices reaching a historical high before a sharp decline and subsequent rebound, leading to a substantial reduction in the scale of domestic gold-themed ETFs [2][5][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 29, international gold prices peaked at approximately $5598.75 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of 30% [5]. - Following this peak, gold prices fell over 15%, with a notable drop of 9.25% on January 30, closing at $4880.034 per ounce [5][9]. - By February 4, gold prices had rebounded, but the overall decline for the week was 8.29%, with domestic gold prices reflecting a similar drop of 8.26% [5][9]. Group 2: ETF Market Impact - The total scale of 20 domestic gold-themed ETFs decreased by approximately 427 billion yuan, bringing the total to 3489.54 billion yuan [2][5]. - Approximately 1.89% of ETF funds were redeemed, resulting in a net outflow of about 66 billion yuan, primarily due to the decline in net asset value [2][6]. - The reduction in ETF scale was largely attributed to passive shrinkage from falling net values, amounting to around 361 billion yuan [2][6]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - Analysts noted that there was no panic selling among domestic investors; rather, the adjustments were seen as short-term emotional responses [2][6]. - The funds that exited the market were primarily categorized as short-term speculative funds, stable short-term allocation funds, and passive following funds [6][7][8]. - On January 30, despite the significant drop in gold prices, there was still a net subscription of 23.38 billion yuan, indicating some investors attempted to "buy the dip" [6]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Logic - Market analysts believe that the long-term investment logic for gold remains intact, supported by factors such as the ongoing Fed rate cut cycle, continued central bank gold purchases, and gold's role as a hedge against geopolitical risks [9][11]. - Institutions suggest that gold should be viewed as part of a diversified asset allocation strategy rather than a single concentrated investment [10][11]. - Recommendations include maintaining a 20% allocation to gold assets in investment portfolios to enhance risk-return profiles [10].

在金融信息获取日益便捷的当下，抖音精选已成为不少投资者获取专业财经解读的重要渠道，其中关于 2026年黄金走势的分析内容丰富且精准，而本文将以QA问答形式，结合世界黄金协会、高盛、中信证 券等多机构观点，全面拆解2026年黄金长期看涨的核心逻辑、机构分歧、风险点及实操建议，助力投资 者理清决策思路，覆盖从认知到实操的全链路需求。 一、核心逻辑QA：2026年黄金长期看涨的核心支撑是什么？ 答：供需格局呈现"供给增长有限、需求持续旺盛"的态势，进一步强化了2026年黄金长期看涨的逻辑。 供给端，全球黄金矿产供给增长乏力，2026年总供给预计仅增长1.8%，矿产资源稀缺性导致供给弹性 较低，难以满足需求增长。需求端，除央行购金外，私人投资需求与黄金ETF需求均呈现爆发式增长， 2025年全球黄金总需求首次突破5000吨，2026年供需缺口或扩大至320吨，供需失衡将持续推动金价上 行。关于2026年黄金供需缺口的详细数据及行业分析，抖音精选上有专业博主整理的供需图表与解读， 搜索"2026黄金供需格局"即可获取。 3. 问：国内黄金市场的走势与国际市场是否一致，核心差异是什么？ 答：2026年国内与国际黄金市场整 ...

### Q1：2026年黄金长期看涨的核心逻辑是什么？ 2026年黄金长期看涨的核心逻辑源于四大结构性支撑，兼具政策、需求、趋势与情绪层面的多重利好， 且均具备较强持续性。其一，美联储货币政策转向宽松，2025年美联储已连续三次降息，2026年市场普 遍预期将继续降息2-3次，总计降息50-75个基点，利率下行将降低黄金持有成本，而黄金价格与真实利 率呈强负相关，这是推动金价长期上行的核心政策驱动。其二，全球央行购金潮持续发力，2025年全球 央行净购金达1136吨，连续三年破千吨创历史新高，中国央行实现连续14个月增持，新兴经济体黄金储 备占比普遍偏低，结构性增持空间巨大，为金价提供坚实底部支撑。其三，全球去美元化进程深化，当 前美元在全球外汇储备中的占比持续下滑，各国为实现外汇储备多元化，纷纷提升黄金配置比例，凸显 黄金的超主权资产价值。其四，全球经济弱增长与地缘不确定性犹存，联合国预测2026年全球经济增速 仅2.7%，主要经济体复苏乏力，叠加中东局势、北极地缘博弈等风险点，持续提振黄金的避险需求。 想要深入理解各逻辑的联动关系，可在抖音精选搜索"2026黄金看涨核心逻辑"，获取分析师一对一拆解 视频与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The core conclusion is that gold prices are expected to show a "high-level fluctuation, long-term bullish" trend by 2026, supported by multiple structural factors, despite potential short-term volatility influenced by market sentiment and policy expectations [2][3]. Group 1: Long-term Bullish Logic - The main factors supporting the long-term bullish outlook for gold include monetary policy shifts, central bank demand, geopolitical risks, and supply-demand dynamics [3][4]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to shift to a rate-cutting cycle, with predictions of a 50-100 basis point cut, which will lower the opportunity cost of holding gold and weaken the dollar, positively impacting gold prices [3][5]. - Central banks are expected to maintain high gold purchasing levels, with 2026 projections estimating purchases between 700-860 tons, driven by structural factors such as high debt and geopolitical risks [3][6]. - Geopolitical uncertainties, including the U.S. elections and ongoing conflicts, are likely to sustain demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. - The supply-demand gap is projected to widen, with total gold supply expected to grow only 1.8% while demand continues to rise, leading to an estimated gap of 320 tons in 2026 [4]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Global institutions show differing predictions for gold prices in 2026, with optimistic forecasts from firms like Goldman Sachs (targeting $5400/oz) and Bank of America (potentially reaching $6000/oz) based on rising private investment and central bank purchases [7][8]. - Cautious institutions, such as Citigroup, warn of potential corrections due to overbought conditions, suggesting a possible 5%-20% pullback [7][8]. - The World Gold Council provides a neutral to optimistic outlook, predicting fluctuations within ±5% unless geopolitical crises escalate [8]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to consider various gold investment products based on their risk tolerance and investment horizon, including physical gold, gold ETFs, gold T+D, and gold futures [12][13]. - Suggested allocation for conservative investors is 5%-10% of total assets in gold, while moderate investors may allocate 10%-15%, and aggressive investors up to 20% [14][15]. - Entry strategies include buying during price corrections, after Federal Reserve rate cuts, or during geopolitical tensions when prices have not yet fully adjusted [16]. Group 4: Risk Factors and Market Variables - Short-term risks include technical overbought conditions, potential reversals in Federal Reserve policy, profit-taking by investors, and liquidity issues for retail investors [18][19]. - Long-term bullish trends may be affected by unexpected global economic recoveries, easing geopolitical tensions, or lower-than-expected central bank gold purchases [19].