截至2月12日，美元指数报96.906附近，呈现小幅震荡态势，延续近期持续承压的走势。自2月初以来， 美元指数震荡下行，先后失守97、98两大关口，目前已逼近2022年2月以来的四年低位区间，成为当前 外汇市场的核心关注焦点，其走势主要受美联储政策预期、美国财政前景及全球资金配置情绪等多重因 素主导。 美国财政前景与全球资金流动趋势进一步加剧了美元的承压态势。近期有消息显示，美国国债可能面临 新一轮抛售，"抛售美国资产"的市场心态持续蔓延，导致全球资金配置时对美元资产更为谨慎，直接压 低了美元资产的风险偏好溢价。此外，美国总统特朗普对美元走弱的态度相对温和，其曾多次提及美元 走弱有助于降低美国出口成本，提升美国企业的全球竞争力，这一表态也间接弱化了市场对美元的支撑 预期。自特朗普上任以来，美元指数累计下跌超10%，财政信用恶化与去美元化加速相互交织，推动美 元进入趋势性走弱通道。 值得关注的是，短期地缘因素与机构博弈可能引发美元指数阶段性波动。东方证券研报指出，全球地缘 局势升温可能推动美元指数短期走强，但难以扭转其中期下行趋势，地缘事件更多是放大市场波动，而 非改变由经济和政策基本面决定的长期走势。从机构观 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For gold, short - term panic selling has暂缓, and the long - term trend of de - dollarization remains unchanged. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all to hold off on trading [1][3]. - For copper, the domestic supply contraction provides support for copper prices. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are also to hold off on trading [1][4]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - **Price Movement**: Last night, the gold price showed a volatile trend. After the release of the US January non - farm payroll data, the gold price dived and then stabilized and rebounded [3]. - **Driving Factors**: The US January non - farm payrolls added 130,000 people, far exceeding market expectations, which led to a decline in market expectations of interest rate cuts and a rapid rebound of the US dollar index. As the Chinese Spring Festival approaches, funds tend to be cautious [3]. - **Points to Note During the Spring Festival**: Geopolitical aspects, the tense relationship between the US and Iran may lead the gold price to strengthen during the Spring Festival; in terms of US policies, the market's pricing of the candidate Fed Chairman may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the movements of Kevin Warsh [3]. Copper (CU) - **Price Movement**: Last night, the copper price opened high and closed low, with a slight decrease in the position volume. The main contract price once reached the 103,000 mark. The copper price trend is similar to that of silver. As the US non - farm data exceeded expectations, silver dived significantly, and the copper price followed suit [4]. - **Driving Factors**: Recently, the copper price has shown a pattern of reducing positions and volatile operation, and the amplitude has continued to narrow. Before the festival, the industrial pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength remains, and as the Spring Festival approaches, the willingness of funds to settle positions increases, resulting in insufficient driving force for the copper price [4]. - **Points to Note During the Spring Festival**: The statements of US President Trump and the actions of the Fed may affect macro - expectations; in the industry, attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the domestic holiday [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on platinum and palladium [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The long - term core logic for platinum and palladium remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are intensifying due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. The nomination of Kevin Warsh by Trump has led to short - term dollar strengthening and affected platinum and palladium prices. However, in the long run, factors such as the weakening of the US dollar's credit, the global central bank's gold - buying spree, and the supply - demand situation in the industry support the prices of platinum and palladium [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For platinum futures (pt2606, pt2608, pt2610), the current prices are 551.15, 545.00, and 539.00 respectively, with increases of 10.35, 12.70, and 11.55, and increases of 1.91%, 2.39%, and 2.19% respectively. For palladium futures (pd2606, pd2608, pd2610), the current prices are 439.10, 436.00, and 430.65 respectively, with increases of 7.25, 8.30, and 7.90, and increases of 1.68%, 1.94%, and 1.87% respectively [1] - **Positions and Volumes**: The positions of platinum and palladium futures are 12143 and 4151 respectively. The trading volumes of platinum futures are 6476, 269, and 53 respectively, and those of palladium futures are 2850, 57, and 47 respectively [1] - **Spot Premiums**: The spot premiums of platinum futures are - 5.77, 0.38, and 6.38 respectively, and those of palladium futures are - 16.1, - 13, and - 7.65 respectively [1] Spot Market - **Prices**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai platinum, London platinum, Chow Tai Fook platinum, and Lao Fengxiang platinum are 545.38 yuan/gram, 2160.00 US dollars/ounce, 836.00 yuan/gram, and 960.00 yuan/gram respectively. The previous closing prices of Chinese palladium and Russian palladium are 423.00 yuan/gram and 4316.12 rubles/gram respectively. The price changes and increase/decrease rates vary [1] - **Ratios**: The current values of platinum/palladium, Shanghai platinum/London platinum, pt2608 - pt2606, pt2610 - pt2606, Chinese palladium/Russian palladium, and pd2608 - pd2606 are 1.29, 1.09, - 6.15, - 12.15, 1.07, and - 3.10 respectively, different from the previous values [1] Inventory - **Platinum**: The current NYMEX inventory is 583,369.21 ounces, the registered warehouse receipts are 319,682.01 ounces, the trading volume of the Gold Exchange is 6,991.09 million yuan, and the trading volume is 128.00 kilograms. Compared with the previous values, the registered warehouse receipts decreased by 6081.4 ounces, and the trading volume and trading amount increased significantly [1] - **Palladium**: The current NYMEX inventory is 186,863.10 ounces, the registered warehouse receipts are 148,317.64 ounces. The inventory decreased by 4010.4 ounces compared with the previous value, and the registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged [1] Related Derivatives - **Indices**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Nasdaq index, Dow Jones index, and US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate are 96.92, 6,941.47, 4.18, 23,066.47, 50,121.40, and 6.94 respectively, with corresponding increases or decreases compared with the previous values [1] - **Gold and Silver Futures**: The current prices of Shanghai gold (2604, 2606, 2608) and Shanghai silver (2604, 2606, 2608) futures have increased compared with the previous closing prices [1] Macroeconomic News - **Fed Policy**: The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%, pausing after three consecutive 25 - basis - point cuts. Fed Chair candidate Waller supports a 25 - basis - point cut, consistent with Trump - appointed director Milan [2] - **Fed Chair Nomination**: Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, but this nomination faces opposition from some senators. Warsh has shifted from a hawkish to a dovish stance in recent years [2] - **China's Economic Data**: In January 2026, China's manufacturing market demand tightened, but production remained in an expansion state, and the industrial structure continued to optimize. The manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. The PMIs of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries were 50.1% and 52% respectively, showing stable and positive development [2] - **PBOC Meeting**: The People's Bank of China held a 2026 payment and settlement work meeting, requiring efforts to promote the high - quality development of the modern payment system, including accelerating the construction of the RMB cross - border payment system, strengthening supervision, and optimizing payment services [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Precious metals are in a high - level oscillation. After the release of better - than - expected US non - farm payroll data in January, the expectation of interest rate cuts cooled down, causing precious metals to plunge. However, the US employment market still needs interest rate cuts due to its weakness. In the long run, factors such as de - dollarization, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases remain supportive. After market adjustment and the accumulation of new positive factors, gold is expected to return to a steady upward channel. Due to silver's greater volatility and the relatively low gold - silver ratio, investors are advised to wait and see [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: For gold futures, the closing prices of沪金2606 and沪金2604 on the previous day were 1133.00 and 1130.400 respectively, with increases of 9.04 and 9.180, and increases of 0.80% and 0.82%. Their trading volumes were 44843 and 217933, and their positions were 89881 and 160510. For silver futures, the closing prices of沪银2606 and沪银2604 on the previous day were 20505 and 20944 respectively, with increases of 794 and 660, and increases of 4.03% and 3.25%. Their trading volumes were 266728 and 504079, and their positions were 134806 and 211818 [2] Spot Market - **Price and Change**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold T + D on the previous day was 1124.47, an increase of 7.07 or 0.63%. The closing price of London gold was 5084.75, an increase of 57.09 or 1.14%. The closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 19899, an increase of 631 or 3.27%. The closing price of London silver was 84.22, an increase of 3.46 or 4.29% [2] Inventory - **Change**: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold remained unchanged at 105,072 kilograms. The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver increased by 18734 kilograms to 342,102 kilograms. The COMEX gold inventory decreased by 494765 ounces to 34,735,045 ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 4704222 ounces to 381,568,803 ounces [2] Related Derivatives - **Change**: The SPDR gold ETF position increased by 2 tons to 1,081 tons. The SLV silver ETF position increased by 20 tons to 16,236 tons. The net position of CFTC speculators in gold decreased by 39792 to 165,604, and the net position in silver increased by 2174 to 25,877 [2] Macroeconomic News - **US Employment Data**: In January, the US seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls were 130,000, far exceeding the expected 70,000. The unemployment rate was 4.3%, lower than the expected 4.4%. The monthly rate of average hourly wages was 0.4%, higher than the expected 0.3%. The annual rate of average hourly wages was 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6%. The November and December non - farm payrolls were revised downward, with a total reduction of 17,000 compared to the previous figures [3] - **Political Events**: The US House of Representatives passed a bill to end Trump's tariffs on Canada, highlighting Trump's weakening control over the House. The US Department of Defense is preparing to deploy a second aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East, and Trump said that no decision was made in the meeting with Netanyahu except for continuing negotiations with Iran [3][4]

Group 1 - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns that the U.S. is in the "fifth stage" of the imperial rise and fall cycle, indicating a period of impending disorder and conflict [1] - Dalio defines the current U.S. situation as part of a "six-stage major cycle," characterized by extreme polarization and debt imbalance, on the verge of collapse but not yet fully collapsed [1] - Dalio emphasizes the importance of gold as a "non-debt" asset amid current debt and political turmoil, suggesting that individuals should allocate 5% to 15% of their investment portfolios to gold [1] Group 2 - Historical data indicates that after significant price drops, gold typically experiences substantial gains in the medium to long term [2] - Recent fluctuations in gold prices show a pattern of high volatility and a potential mid-term low point after a sharp decline [2] - Investors are advised to consider their investment duration and risk tolerance when investing in gold, with a specific mention of the Cathay Gold ETF (518800) for those interested [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant increase in U.S. non-farm employment in January 2026, which exceeded market expectations, and discusses its implications for monetary policy and various commodities [1][6][17]. Economic Data Summary - The U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs in January, far surpassing the expected range of 50,000 to 75,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1][6]. - The average hourly wage increased by 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding expectations [6]. Commodity Insights Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced high volatility following the employment data release, with a sharp decline as interest rate cut expectations cooled. However, long-term factors such as de-dollarization and central bank gold purchases continue to support prices [2][17]. - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for the 15th consecutive month, indicating ongoing support for gold prices [2][17]. Copper - Copper prices are currently in a consolidation phase, with tight supply of concentrates and fluctuating smelting profits. The overall smelting output remains high despite a month-on-month decline [3][18]. - Key indicators such as electricity investment and automotive production are showing positive trends, while the real estate sector remains weak [3][18]. Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices showed slight declines, with the construction materials sector leading gains and the communications sector lagging. The market's trading volume was 2 trillion yuan [10]. - Financing balances decreased by 3.828 billion yuan, indicating a cautious market outlook as the Spring Festival approaches [10]. Nickel Supply - Indonesia plans to significantly reduce nickel production, with a target output of 260-270 million tons for the year, which is lower than the 2025 target of 379 million tons. This move is expected to have a substantial impact on global nickel supply [1]. Other Commodities - The article also discusses trends in various commodities such as oil, methanol, and rubber, indicating a mixed outlook with some sectors facing supply constraints while others are adjusting to seasonal demand changes [12][13][14][15].

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a sudden shift, with major indices closing lower after an initial rise, particularly impacting the software sector, which saw the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) drop by 2.55% [1] - Concerns over the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the real economy are growing, especially regarding the potential disruption to the software industry, leading to a decline in valuation multiples [1] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market faced significant sell-offs, with Bitcoin briefly falling below $66,000, experiencing a drop of over 4%, while Ethereum and SOL also saw declines exceeding 3% [1] - Data from CoinGlass indicated that in the last 24 hours, 144,691 traders were liquidated, with total liquidation amounts reaching $458 million [1] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, leading traders to reduce bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [2] - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmieding expressed concerns about persistent inflation, suggesting that rates should remain at a "slightly restrictive" level, while Fed Governor Milan held a contrasting view advocating for rate cuts [2] Asset Management Trends - Amundi, Europe's largest asset management firm with €2.8 trillion in assets, announced plans to reduce exposure to U.S. dollar assets and shift towards European and emerging markets due to concerns over U.S. economic policy [3] - The shift in strategy is echoed by other major institutions, such as the Swedish pension fund Alecta, which has sold off a significant portion of U.S. Treasuries due to concerns over U.S. government unpredictability and rising debt [3] Structural Reasons for Dollar Asset Bearishness - Amundi outlined three structural reasons for its bearish stance on dollar assets: 1. Diminishing private demand due to high interest rates and inflation eroding purchasing power [4] 2. Ineffectiveness of fiscal stimulus as large deficits contribute to inflationary pressures and debt burdens [4] 3. Policy uncertainty, particularly regarding tariffs, suppressing capital expenditure outside of AI [4] - A fundamental shift in the correlation between the dollar and U.S. equities and bonds is noted, with the dollar no longer acting as a stabilizer but rather as a volatility amplifier [4]

Core Insights - The commodity market is transitioning from a "broad increase" to "structural differentiation," with funds shifting towards undervalued sectors with solid fundamentals [1][3] - The historical divergence between "green metals" (copper, lithium, nickel) and traditional energy (crude oil, coal) has become a defining feature of the current market [3][4] - The current commodity cycle is characterized by a unique combination of financial and strategic attributes, driven by structural narratives rather than traditional economic growth [7][12] Market Dynamics - The supply-demand relationship for green metals is tight due to rigid supply and explosive demand, while traditional energy faces relaxed supply and slowing demand [3][4] - The global supply chain is shifting from "efficiency-first" globalization to "security-first" regionalization, impacting commodity pricing and availability [4][20] - Recent price movements, such as a 30% increase in LME copper prices in January 2026, reflect the new characteristics of the market [4] Historical Context - The current commodity cycle shows similarities to the 1970s, with a focus on the restructuring of the global monetary system and ongoing supply chain disruptions [11][12] - The previous commodity supercycle was driven by China's industrialization and urbanization, while the current cycle is influenced by AI infrastructure and green transitions [7][12] Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to focus on the fundamental differences among commodities to identify structural opportunities [4][13] - Key commodities to watch include zinc, wheat, iron ore, and platinum, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [15][24] - The chemical sector is anticipated to see growth due to domestic policy changes and supply optimization, with specific attention to products with strong export expectations [14] Future Outlook - The commodity market is expected to continue exhibiting significant differentiation, with traditional rotation patterns being disrupted [13][24] - The focus on strategic resources like gold, silver, copper, and tin is likely to lead to a scenario where these commodities experience upward price pressure while others may lag [24]

Group 1 - The current commodity market is transitioning from a "general rise" to "structural differentiation," with funds shifting towards undervalued sectors with solid fundamentals [1][2] - Precious metals are leading the market, followed by industrial metals, while energy and chemical sectors are starting to rise from low levels [1][2] - The historical divergence between "green metals" (copper, lithium, nickel) and traditional energy sources (crude oil, coal) is becoming evident, with the former experiencing tight supply and explosive demand, while the latter faces relaxed supply and slowing demand [2][3] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is more akin to a recovery phase rather than overheating, driven by demand growth from the AI technology revolution rather than traditional economic overheating [3] - The supply chain is shifting from a focus on efficiency to a focus on security, with resource country policies becoming key price drivers [3][4] - The recent price fluctuations in gold and silver are seen as corrections rather than reversals of long-term trends, with the long-term upward logic for these metals remaining intact [3][4] Group 3 - The current commodity cycle is characterized by a paradigm shift, with the strong performance of precious and strategic metals driven by structural narratives rather than robust global economic growth [5][6] - The traditional sequence of commodity price movements is being disrupted, with the new sequence being gold → new energy metals (copper/silver/lithium) → electric infrastructure (aluminum/zinc) → strategic minor metals (tungsten/tin/cobalt) [10][11] - The market is witnessing significant differentiation, with precious and non-ferrous metals showing strong performance while traditional economic growth-related sectors remain weak [10][11] Group 4 - The current commodity market is in a critical transition phase, similar to the 1970s, but with new variables such as energy transition and weakening dollar credit [9][10] - The price resilience of commodities is stronger, but the volatility is also more extreme due to the combination of historical inflation and new demand drivers like AI and green transition [9][10] - Investors are advised to focus on understanding the new market dynamics and structural changes rather than relying on historical patterns [10][11]

2026.02.11 本文字数：2235，阅读时长大约4分钟 目前，是美国重磅经济数据的窗口期，美国非农数据和CPI将陆续公布，贵金属市场呈现观望态势，整 体以小幅震荡为主。 "美国12月零售销售数据意外停滞，大幅低于此前经济学家预期增长的0.4%。"正信期货分析，劳动力疲 软是导致消费增速放缓的原因，尽管高端消费者的支出非常活跃，但低收入群体的消费态度则更为谨 慎。 作者 | 第一财经 齐琦 国际金价再次突破关键阻力位，重回5000美元/盎司大关。 截至2月11日，伦敦金现报5064美元/盎司，盘中最高触及5069美元/盎司；伦敦银现日内大涨5%，报 84.7美元/盎司。 然而，价格突破并未激发市场追涨热情。交易人士对记者称，当前国际金价在5000美元关键关口徘徊， 市场呈现明显分化态势：中长期资金持续流入，各国央行连续增持黄金储备，机构普遍看好全年走势； 但短期投机资金趋于谨慎，交易员并未因价格突破而大举建立多头头寸，多空双方均不敢轻举妄动，市 场观望情绪浓厚。 宏观层面，美国非农数据即将揭晓，成为压制市场风险偏好的关键变量。该报告不仅因政府停摆推迟发 布，更包含年度基准修正，可能大幅下修此前公布的就业数 ...