01、美元 "退烧" 早有信号？ 王爷说财经讯：9月28 日紧急提醒：美元撑不住了！今天1美元只能换 7.1349 人民币，比起9月4 日的 7.1426 已经连跌8天。 更关键的是，美元兑欧元、英镑甚至离岸人民币全在跌，仅今天对卢旺达法郎就跌了 5.57 个点。 美元这波走弱是暂时波动还是大趋势反转？对我们投资者又会有何影响呢？今天就一起来看看！ 其实从9 月17 日就该警觉了——美联储突然出手，把联邦基金利率从 4.25%-4.5% 降到了 4%-4.25%。 这是美联储今年第一次降息，背后藏着美国经济的大问题：8 月非农就业只增 2.2 万人，比 7 月少了近 6 万人，连去年的就业数据都下修了 91.1 万。 更要命的是全球央行都在 "用脚投票"。 据国际货币基金组织（IMF）最新的数据显示，现在美元在全球外汇储备里只占 57.74%，是 15 年来最低，而黄金储备占比却从 6.41% 涨到 14.8%。 而最近瑞士央行更是直接，坦言正在把美元换成欧元，毕竟它 1 万亿美元储备里，美元占比已从高位降了 2 个点。 02、为啥美元突然不香了？ 那么问题来了：为什么美元突然就变成这样了呢？ 王爷说财经认为 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on non-ferrous resource stocks, particularly copper, precious metals, and cobalt, suggesting an adjustment to a buy rating [1]. Core Insights - The copper supply issue has deepened market understanding of metal resource supply and demand dynamics. Despite a significant decline in China's real estate sector in 2023, various non-ferrous metals have shown unexpectedly strong consumption [1]. - The report highlights a notable increase in precious metals, reinforcing the logic of de-dollarization, with central bank gold reserves surpassing U.S. Treasury holdings for the first time in nearly 30 years [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring new material stocks related to technological growth, alongside traditional non-ferrous metals like copper, gold, silver, aluminum, cobalt, rare earths, antimony, and tungsten [1]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The weekly price of antimony ingots is reported at 175,000 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.96%. The domestic antimony market is still under pressure from oversupply [2]. - The non-ferrous metal index saw a weekly increase of 3.52%, ranking second among sectors. Precious metals led with a 5.55% increase, while small metals and new materials saw declines [4]. - The largest weekly gain was observed in cobalt prices, which rose by 12.74% due to surging demand from the battery industry and tightening export policies from the Democratic Republic of Congo [4]. Copper Market - As of September 25, copper inventories in major regions decreased by 0.88 million tons to 14.89 million tons, down from 15.43 million tons year-on-year. The report anticipates a shift from surplus to a slight deficit in global copper supply-demand balance by 2026 [4]. - The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has faced operational setbacks, leading to a significant downward revision of expected copper output for 2025 and 2026 [4]. - The report suggests a bullish outlook for copper prices, driven by strong fundamentals and ongoing supply issues [4]. Aluminum Market - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventories decreased to 617,000 tons, indicating a clear trend of destocking. The report notes a significant increase in aluminum cable exports and a recovery in production rates [4]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have shown upward trends, with gold reaching 3,761 USD/ounce (+2.1%) and silver at 46.055 USD/ounce (+7.0%). The report attributes this to expectations of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [5]. - Platinum prices have also surged, with a reported increase of 12.2% in the past week, driven by geopolitical tensions and economic data [5]. New Materials and Energy - The report highlights the robust demand for lithium and cobalt, with lithium carbonate prices showing slight increases. The cobalt market is expected to face a significant supply gap in the coming years due to export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [5]. - The report also discusses the potential for uranium prices to rise due to supply constraints and increasing demand [6].

Core Viewpoint - The historical fluctuations in gold prices are deeply tied to global economic patterns, technological revolutions, and changes in the monetary system, with the current surge in gold prices reflecting a combination of loose monetary policies, weakened dollar credibility, and a trend towards "de-dollarization" [1][3][10] Historical Gold Market Cycles - The first major bull market in gold lasted from August 1971 to January 1980, with prices soaring from $35 to $850 per ounce, a cumulative increase of approximately 2328.57%, driven by the collapse of dollar credibility due to U.S. deficits and stagflation [2] - The second bull market spanned from February 2001 to August 2011, with prices rising from $251.9 to $1920.3 per ounce, a cumulative increase of about 662.3%, influenced by economic weakness following the dot-com bubble and the subprime mortgage crisis [2] - The current bull market, recognized as the third, began in 2022, with its driving forces being multifaceted pressures including political turmoil, fiscal challenges, and technological competition, rather than solely monetary policy [2][3] "De-dollarization" Trend - The global "de-dollarization" process is expected to accelerate by 2025, becoming a core driver for rising international gold prices, as central banks, including China's, increase their gold reserves [3][4] - A significant shift is observed as countries like Germany and Italy repatriate gold stored in the U.S., indicating a fundamental questioning of the safety of dollar assets [3] - A survey indicates that 95% of central banks plan to continue increasing gold reserves, reflecting strategic adjustments based on the expanding cracks in the dollar credit system [3] Current Drivers of Gold Prices - Global monetary policy easing is a primary factor driving gold prices upward, with the U.S. Federal Reserve recently lowering interest rates, enhancing gold's investment appeal [4][5] - The weakening dollar index, which has dropped from around 108 to approximately 97.62, has made gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, stimulating demand [5] - Political and economic uncertainties, including U.S. domestic political interventions and financial turmoil in emerging markets, have increased the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5][6] Structural Changes in the Gold Market - Continuous gold purchases by central banks provide a stable source of demand, with global gold ETF inflows reaching 473 tons since 2025, contrasting with net outflows in 2024 [6] - The potential shift from "diversification" to "strategic" gold purchases by central banks could lead to structural growth in official demand for gold [6][8] Future Price Outlook - In the next six months, international gold prices are expected to maintain a strong oscillating pattern, with potential to break through $3800 per ounce depending on U.S. Federal Reserve signals and geopolitical developments [7][10] - The baseline scenario predicts gold prices fluctuating between $3500 and $4500 per ounce over the next 12 months, with a central tendency around $3750 per ounce, reflecting a 15% to 30% increase from September 2025 levels [10] - Long-term projections suggest that gold prices could exceed $6000 per ounce within 3 to 5 years, driven by the reconfiguration of the global monetary system and increasing official demand [8][10]

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京9月28日电 黄金价格的历史波动始终与全球经济格局、技术革命浪潮和货币体系变革深度 绑定。回顾布雷顿森林体系瓦解后的50年，国际黄金市场经历了三轮标志性牛市与两次主要熊市，每一 轮周期的背后都折射出技术迭代与货币霸权的博弈轨迹。 当前国际黄金价格突破3700美元／盎司的历史新高，不仅是对全球货币政策宽松的即时反应，更是技术 优势转移、美元信用弱化与"去美元化"浪潮叠加的必然结果。从金价决定因素的演变趋势看，支撑国际 金价的基本面因素在短期和中长期均未发生实质性改变。因此，2025年国际黄金价格的新高可能只是长 期上涨趋势中的一个里程碑，而非终点。 黄金市场周期的历史镜像：技术革命与货币霸权的博弈 第一轮黄金大牛市（1971年8月至1980年1月）持续8年半，国际金价从布雷顿森林体系瓦解前的35美元 ／盎司飙升至1980年1月的850美元／盎司，累计涨幅约2328.57%。其核心驱动力是美国双赤字扩张与 滞胀危机引发的美元信用崩塌。这一时期技术革命处于酝酿阶段，美国尚未建立新的产业优势，黄金作 为"货币危机对冲工具"的属性得到极致释放。 第二轮黄金大牛市（2001年2月至2011年8 ...

谁在接盘？ 英国、日本成"冤大头"，稳定币成新赌具 当美联储疯狂抛售时，接盘力量主要来自两类角色：一是日本和英国等传统盟友，二是新兴的稳定币发 行方。 日本至今持有1.15万亿美元美债，稳居最大海外债主，英国更是激进增持至8993亿美元，反超中 国成为第二。 美联储，这个全球最大的央行，在3年多时间里悄悄抛售了1.6万亿美元的美债，规模相当于日本和英国 两大债主持仓的总和，远超中国十年累计减持的5000亿。这场抛售潮中，海外投资者反而在增持，而美 联储的"缩表"甚至与降息同步进行。 一边放水，一边抽水，美国经济的矛盾操作背后，是一场关于债 务、通胀和政治压力的危险博弈。 美联储的"双重身份"：既是裁判又是球员 通常情况下，美债市场的卖家主要是各国央行或机构投资者，但这一次，主角变成了美债的发行方监管 者，美联储。 这种操作与其说是主动选择，不如说是被通胀逼入墙角。 2022年美国通胀飙升至9%时，美联储只能通 过抛售美债回收流动性，每月最高减持950亿美元。 更矛盾的是，2024年9月美联储开启降息周期后，缩表却未停止。 一边降息刺激经济，一边抛债收紧银 根，这种看似精神分裂的操作，暴露了美联储的艰难处境：降 ...

先说说美国自己的问题吧。特朗普上台后推的那些关税政策，本来想护着本土产业，结果适得其反。高关税一加，贸易伙伴们不乐意了，进口成本涨，通胀 压力大增，高盛直接把2025年美国经济衰退概率从20%调到35%。 关税平均率预期从10%拉到15%，这不光打压了出口，还让美元在国际支付里的份额缩水。2025年1月和2月，美元跨境支付占比分别掉到50.17%和48.95%， 贸易融资里虽还有81%，但也开始松动。 巴黎银行的货币策略主管彼得·瓦萨直言，美元指数今年开局这么弱，是80年代中期以来头一遭。说白了，美国贸易赤字和财政赤字双双爆表，债务占 GDP125%，谁还敢放心大胆地买美债？ 各国央行这几年动作可不小，尤其是减持美债这事儿。拿中国来说，2025年减持力度明显加大。从1月到7月，持仓量从年初的8000多亿美金一路往下走，7 月单月甩掉257亿，持仓只剩7307亿，这是2009年2月以来最低点。 整个上半年，中国减持为主，3月掉189亿，4月82亿，5月也减了点，2月虽增了235亿，但整体趋势是往下。 不是中国一个人这么干，日本和英国7月还增持了点，但法国也跟着减，全球抛售潮让美债收益率曲线陡峭起来，美国融资成本 ...

彼时，美元作为全球储备货币的垄断地位持续数十年，靠的是美国强势的金融系统与印钞机背书。长期 依赖意味着长期脆弱：一旦政治关系紧张，资产被"非市场化"处置的可能就变为现实。自去年开始，许 多国家央行加快了买黄金的节奏，因为黄金不同于美元国债，不能轻易凭一纸令下被没收，它是全球公 认的硬通货，是对抗金融武器化的天然盾牌。 在这种气氛中，一条看似技术性的消息具有象征意义。九月，外媒报道称中国央行正通过上海黄金交易 所与友好国家商谈，邀请它们将黄金储备存放在中国的保税仓库，而且据说已经有东南亚国家表现出了 兴趣。托管地点的转移，不只是物流安排，它背后指向"信任"的迁徙。把黄金放谁那，就等于把命脉塞 谁兜里——托管方的选择，其实是地缘政治与金融安全的投票。 定价权与钥匙的去与留 过去西方掌握了全球的黄金定价与托管体系：伦敦金库与纽约联储是黄金储备的集中地，伦敦的"良好 交割"标准与欧美的跨境清算网络相互嵌套，构成了一个难以撼动的惯性结构。许多国家甚至习惯了把 黄金留在海外，既便于交易，又兼顾声誉。可一旦托管与政治绑定，托管变成"寄存"，金虽在账上，钥 匙却不在手里。 相比之下，中国提出"你们可以放我这"，发行的是另一张 ...

Group 1: Diplomatic Engagement and Financial Implications - A bipartisan U.S. congressional delegation visited China for the first time since 2019, emphasizing the need for high-level dialogue between the U.S. and China [1] - Chinese Premier Li Qiang reiterated the importance of mutual respect in cooperation, while the U.S. seeks to stabilize market confidence by urging China to halt or slow down the sale of U.S. Treasury bonds [1][9] - The backdrop of these discussions includes significant concerns over U.S. Treasury market stability and the implications of China's actions on global financial markets [1][9] Group 2: Trends in U.S. Treasury Holdings - In July 2025, China reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds by $25.7 billion, bringing its total to $730.7 billion, the lowest level since 2009 [2] - This reduction is part of a broader trend, with China having decreased its U.S. Treasury holdings by $173.2 billion in 2022, $50.8 billion in 2023, and $57.3 billion in 2024, totaling a net reduction of $53.7 billion in the first seven months of 2025 [2] Group 3: Economic and Policy Drivers - The reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings by China is driven by concerns over U.S. fiscal policy, including high national debt and interest payments exceeding $1 trillion annually [3] - The U.S. national debt has reached $37 trillion, leading to fears about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy and the credibility of the dollar [3][8] Group 4: Comparative Analysis with Other Nations - Japan and the UK have increased their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, with Japan holding $1.147 trillion and the UK $858.1 billion, contrasting with China's reduction [4] - Japan's increase is attributed to trade surpluses and low domestic interest rates, while the UK's increase reflects its role as a global financial hub and the need for liquidity amid economic uncertainty [4] Group 5: Credit Ratings and Market Reactions - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA to Aa1 in May 2025, reflecting concerns over fiscal sustainability and increasing deficits [5] - The downgrade may trigger passive adjustments by various institutions, impacting the demand for U.S. Treasury bonds [5] Group 6: Shift Towards Alternative Assets - Central banks are increasingly looking for reserve assets that do not rely on U.S. credit, leading to a rise in gold holdings, with China's gold reserves reaching 74.02 million ounces by August 2025 [6] - The global trend shows a significant increase in gold purchases by central banks, with 95% of surveyed central banks expecting to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months [6] Group 7: Currency and Settlement Changes - The cross-border settlement of digital yuan surpassed 500 billion yuan in 2025, indicating a shift towards de-dollarization [7] - The share of the U.S. dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased to 57.7%, while the use of the yuan in cross-border payments has risen significantly [7] Group 8: U.S. Monetary Policy Responses - The Federal Reserve has expanded its balance sheet from $4.2 trillion in 2020 to $9 trillion in 2025 through quantitative easing to stabilize the Treasury market [8] - The ongoing fiscal debates in the U.S. Congress could lead to a government shutdown, further impacting the credibility of U.S. debt [8] Group 9: Future Observations and Implications - The visit of the U.S. delegation to China highlights the urgency of addressing financial risks and the need for cooperation on key issues [9] - The potential visit of former President Trump to China could signify a shift in diplomatic and financial strategies between the two nations [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing unprecedented strength due to factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and increasing geopolitical risks [1] Group 1: Silver Market Performance - On September 26, silver prices surpassed $46 per ounce, reaching a 14-year high, with a six-month increase of over 30% and a year-to-date rise of 59%, outperforming most commodities [2][3] - The average silver price for 2024 is projected at $28.27 per ounce, compared to $23.35 per ounce in 2023 [4] - The rise in silver prices is attributed to its dual role as both a precious and industrial metal, benefiting from economic conditions such as rising inflation and liquidity [4][5] Group 2: Platinum and Gold Market Trends - Platinum prices also surged, with a 2.5% increase on September 27, reaching $1584 per ounce, marking an 11.5% weekly rise [7] - Gold remains strong near historical highs, with a current price of $3783 per ounce, supported by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid global uncertainties [8] - In September, global gold ETF inflows reached a record $10.5 billion, with total inflows exceeding $50 billion year-to-date [8] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The current gold-silver ratio is approximately 82 domestically and 85 internationally, significantly higher than historical averages, indicating potential for silver price recovery [5] - Analysts suggest that while silver has strong upward momentum, caution is advised due to potential price volatility and the impact of changing economic conditions [9][10] - The outlook for gold remains optimistic due to ongoing central bank purchases and a trend towards de-dollarization, with expectations of a gradual price increase [10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, particularly after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, has led to increased interest in gold-linked bank wealth management products, which are offering attractive annualized returns compared to other fixed-income products [1][2][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Since September, gold prices have been on the rise, with COMEX gold futures reaching over $3,800 per ounce [1]. - As of September 26, the highest price recorded was $3,783.5 per ounce, reflecting a 0.33% increase [4]. - The current gold price increase is supported by macroeconomic factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and increased gold reserves by emerging market central banks [4]. Group 2: Bank Wealth Management Products - Banks and wealth management subsidiaries are actively promoting gold-related financial products, with many offering annualized returns exceeding 5% in the past month [1][2]. - Specific products, such as a structured deposit linked to gold prices, have been highlighted, with a typical allocation of 8% to 10% in gold [2]. - Notable products include a shark fin structure from China Merchants Bank with a 6.27% annualized return and another from Xingyin Wealth Management with a 7.49% return in the last month [2]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Experts suggest that while gold products remain valuable, investors should be cautious due to the current high price levels and potential volatility [5]. - The design of some products includes risk control mechanisms, as evidenced by early terminations due to reaching profit-taking conditions [3]. - Investors are advised to incorporate gold into their portfolios strategically and to stay informed about market dynamics and economic indicators [5].