金十数据整理：每日全球外汇市场要闻速递（5月15日） 1. 韩国最高贸易特使将于周四下午与美国贸易代表格里尔举行双边会谈。 1. 消息人士：美国在关税谈判中不寻求美元贬值。 2. 欧洲央行要求区内银行评估压力情况下美元短缺风险，因担忧特朗普执政下无法依赖美联储。 3. 美国监管机构准备在未来几个月降低大型银行补充杠杆率。 4. 消息人士称，美国与日本和韩国的贸易关税协议接近达成，具体时间尚不清楚。与印度的协议也将达 成，但因与巴基斯坦的紧张关系而受到影响。 5. 美联储-①古尔斯比：4月份通胀数据的某些部分反映了数据的滞后性；目前是美联储等待更多信息、 努力摆脱数据噪音的时机。②戴利：目前的货币政策能够应对经济中的各种变化，耐心是当下的关键 词。③副主席杰斐逊：关税可能导致通胀上升，但尚不确定其影响是否持续。 6. 德意志银行：美联储可能要到12月才会降息，随后在2026年一季度降息两次，每次25个基点。 7. 特朗普：宁愿先还债，再搞主权财富基金。 2. 中国央行今日开展645亿元7天逆回购操作，利率为1.40%，与此前持平。 3. 韩国将于9月起将存款保险上限从目前的5000万韩元提高至1亿韩元。 2. ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 金融资产端与负债端的五个观察 ——2025 年 4 月金融数据点评 事 项 2025 年 4 月，新增社融 1.16 万亿（前值 5.89 万亿），新增人民币贷款 2800 亿 （前值 36400 亿）。社融存量同比增长 8.7%（前值 8.4%），M2 同比增长 8 % （前值 7%），旧口径 M1 同比增长-1%（前值-0.8%）。新口径 M1 同比增长 1.5% （前值 1.6%）。 ❖ 核心观点 1、从经济循环的视角来看，4 月企业居民存款剪刀差仍在持续改善，经济的 循环自 2024 年 9 月以来持续修复。 2、2025 年开年前四个月，非银机构新增存款规模处于过去五年最高值，背后 可能对应两个逻辑，一方面是居民存款搬家逻辑，另一方面是稳定房市股市预 期的背景下，央行加大投放稳定市场底部的逻辑。 3、从贷款数据层面，当下贷款总量偏弱的背景下，结构上存在两个变化，对 于居民而言，消费贷款趋势增长，经营贷款趋势回落；对于企业而言，短期贷 款趋势增长，中长期贷款趋势回落。 ❖ 金融资产端的三个数据观察： 1、4 月本身是信用扩张的小月 信用扩张规模存在较强的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent significant reductions in deposit rates by several small and medium-sized banks have led to unusual phenomena such as one-year deposit rates exceeding five-year rates, indicating a shift in banks' deposit management strategies [2][3][7]. Group 1: Deposit Rate Adjustments - Multiple small and medium-sized banks have initiated a new round of deposit rate cuts, with noticeable instances of one-year rates surpassing five-year rates, such as Xinjiang Korla Fumin Village Bank's one-year rate at 2.0% compared to 1.95% for five years [2][3]. - The phenomenon of "rate inversion" has become more common, with banks like Shandong Yinan Blue Ocean Village Bank showing three-year rates at 2.0% while five-year rates are at 1.8%, a 20 basis point difference [3][5]. - Guangdong Qingxin Rural Commercial Bank has also adjusted its rates, with one-year rates at 1.1% and three-year rates at 1.53%, indicating a trend where longer-term deposits yield lower returns [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - The banking sector is experiencing a trend where deposit growth outpaces loan growth, with banks like Xiamen Bank reporting a 3.17% increase in deposits while loans decreased by 2.02% [6]. - There is a noticeable shift towards "regularization" of deposits, with personal term deposits increasing significantly across various banks, indicating pressure on banks' liability management [6]. - Analysts suggest that the ongoing trend of declining interest rates will lead to more frequent occurrences of deposit rate inversions, as banks adjust their strategies to manage costs more effectively [7][9]. Group 3: Future Expectations - The People's Bank of China has indicated a potential for further reductions in deposit rates, which may lead to a collective nationwide decrease in interest rates, impacting banks' ability to attract deposits [7][8]. - The expectation of continued downward pressure on rates suggests that banks will need to refine their deposit management strategies to remain competitive in attracting customers [9].

韩国提高存款保险上限 "存款搬家潮"或来袭 金十数据5月15日讯，韩国金融监管机构表示，自9月起，每位客户在金融机构的存款保险上限将从目前 的5000万韩元提高至1亿韩元（约71,174美元），这一措施旨在增强公众对银行体系的信心。这可能会 部分影响货币市场，因为储户或将资金转向提供更高利率的金融机构，例如储蓄银行，而非传统商业银 行。韩国金融委员会补充称，这种"存款搬家"现象可能导致商业银行通过发债来弥补资金缺口。韩国政 府表示，将密切关注资本流动和市场反应，因为一些金融机构可能因此次调整面临流动性或偿付能力方 面的挑战。政府还将严密监控二级金融机构是否出现"过度放贷"行为。此次调整使韩国的存款保险制度 更接近国际标准，并有望鼓励个人更多地将储蓄存入银行。 ...

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities expects the growth rate of social financing (社融) to remain stable in the second quarter, driven by low base effects from last year's government bond issuance and credit demand [1] Social Financing - In April, the growth rate of social financing continued to rise, primarily due to the low base from last year's government bond issuance and credit demand [1] - The net financing amount of government bonds in April last year was the lowest since the inclusion of government bonds in social financing statistics [1] - April is typically a small month for social financing and credit, necessitating further observation to determine financing demand [1] Credit Market - Credit rhythm experienced a temporary decline due to pre-quarter lending and the traditional small month for credit [1] - Demand for certain types of loans, particularly mortgages, weakened, compounded by external tariff factors affecting corporate financing needs [1] Deposit Trends - M1 growth rate weakened again and fell below market expectations, indicating that consumer spending and corporate investment willingness have not significantly improved [1] - The private sector's motivation to increase leverage remains weak, suggesting a need for further policy guidance [1] Future Outlook - Despite the negative impact of tariffs on the economy, the combination of a loose monetary environment and accelerated fiscal efforts is expected to support stable growth in social financing in the second quarter [1]

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 非银回流银行，M2 增速回升 ——4 月金融数据解读 2025 年 4 月新增人民币贷款 2800 亿元，同比少增 4500 亿元，信贷余额增速 由 7.4%回落至 7.2%；新增社会融资规模 1.16 万亿，同比多增 1.22 万亿元， 社融存量增速由 8.4%回升至 8.7%；M2 同比增速从 7%修复至 8%，新口径的 M1 增速由 1.6%小幅下降至 1.5%。整体来看，季末信贷冲刺形成较为明显的 透支效应，4 月信贷增长大幅偏弱于预期，其中企业部门是明显拖累，但由于 央行"前置降息"，数据发布后市场反应钝化。在政府债券前置发行的支持下， 社融增速继续回升。存款方面，M1 表现不弱，去年手工补息禁止之后，存款 大幅外流形成低基数，非银存款回流支撑本月 M2 增速明显修复。 一、积极信号之中的季节性因素 二季度融出定价相对偏低的情况下，理财等广义基金增配存款带动 M2 增速 明显修复。（1）4 月 M2 减少 8815 亿元，较去年同期少减 2.7 万亿，带动 M2 增速向上回升接近 1 个百分点，其中非银定期存款为主要支撑，当月同比多增 1.9 万亿，与 ...

Core Insights - The overall performance of the bond market has been strong since April, leading to a significant inflow of funds into the wealth management market, with the total scale of wealth management products reaching a historical high of 23.58 trillion yuan by the end of April, an increase of 1.89 trillion yuan from March and 1.16 trillion yuan from the beginning of the year [1] Group 1: Wealth Management Market Growth - The growth in the wealth management market has shown a significant "tiered differentiation," with state-owned banks leading the increase, generally exceeding 10% growth [2] - Six state-owned bank wealth management companies contributed approximately 1.13 trillion yuan to the market in April, accounting for nearly 60% of the total increase among the top 14 institutions [2] - The cumulative increase in wealth management products for several joint-stock banks has also been notable, with Everbright Wealth Management leading with an increase of over 230 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Factors Influencing Growth - The bond market has benefited from a "see-saw" effect due to stock market volatility, leading to a recovery in the net value curve of wealth management products [4] - The average annualized yield of open-ended fixed-income products reached 3.21% by the end of April, an increase of 1.41 percentage points from the previous month [4] - The "deposit migration effect" has intensified, with many banks lowering deposit rates, making wealth management products more attractive compared to traditional deposits [4] Group 3: Product Performance - Fixed-income and cash management products have directly benefited from the influx of new funds, with cash management product scales increasing by nearly 500 billion yuan in April [5] Group 4: Future Challenges - Despite maintaining high market scales, the wealth management market faces significant challenges in the context of a stable but low-demand market for fixed-income asset yields [6] - Analysts express concerns about the short-term funding sources for wealth management liabilities and potential adjustments in the bond market due to regulatory policies [7]

4月银行理财市场规模迎来季节性大幅回流，背后主要受多因素共振带来的影响。 跨过一季末时点后，银行理财规模环比呈现大幅回升。 进入4月后，债市整体表现偏强，叠加中小银行存款利率新一轮"降息潮"等因素，为理财市场带来增量资金。 由此，银行理财规模也迅速回升，甚至规模再度触及历史高位。 据券商中国记者独家汇总的产品规模排名前14的理财公司数据，截至今年4月末，14家银行理财公司合计规模 达23.58万亿元，较今年3月末增长1.89万亿元，较今年年初增长1.16万亿元，大幅超出此前数年同月份增幅。 国有行理财"打头阵" 据券商中国记者独家数据测算，4月银行理财公司存续产品规模的增幅，存在显著的"梯队分化"：即处于行业 规模第二梯队的国有行理财公司增幅普遍超过10%；而规模超过2万亿元的第一梯队的三家股份行理财公司 ——招银理财、兴银理财和信银理财，单月增幅在4.8%~6.6%之间。 作为贡献4月份理财市场增量的"打头阵"机构，六家国有行理财公司单月回升的理财规模合计约为1.13万亿 元，占上述14家机构的近六成。具体来看，农银理财4月增幅超17%，增量超2800亿元，此外建信理财、中银 理财单月增幅均超13%，中银理 ...

2025 年 4 月金融数据点评 4 月金融数据：三个不寻常信号 2025 年 05 月 14 日 ➢ 事件：5 月 14 日，中国人民银行公布 4 月金融数据，新增社融 1.16 万亿 元、预期 1.26 万亿元，新增人民币贷款 2800 亿元、预期 7644 亿元，M1 同比 1.5%、前值 1.6%、预期 3.0%。 ➢ 4 月金融数据有三个不寻常信号值得关注：一是存量财政政策的落地加速， 既对二季度经济形成支撑，也降低了短期内出台增量政策的必要性。二是金融数 据结构上出现了"财政化"的趋势，这不仅体现在政府债对于社融的明显带动， 也体现在政府相关项目对于信贷投向的"主导"。三是股市上涨带动非银存款多 增，进而推升 M2。具体来看： ➢ 一是存量财政政策的落地加速。这既对二季度经济形成支撑，也降低了短期 内出台增量政策的必要性。 存量财政政策的加速一方面体现在特别国债发行的"快速启动"，今年两会确定 发行规模后，特别国债于 4 月底就开始发行，较去年节奏更快（去年 5 月中旬开 始）。相应地，今年以来国债发行规模更高、发行进度更快，是支撑政府债融资同 比多增的核心力量。 另一方面体现在支出端的"发力"。 ...

2025年4月金融统计数据报告 一、广义货币增长8% 4月末，广义货币(M2 )余额3 2 5 . 1 7万亿元，同比增长8%。狭义货币(M1 )余额1 0 9 . 1 4万亿元， 同 比 增 长 1 . 5% 。 流 通 中 货 币 (M0 ) 余 额 1 3 . 1 4 万 亿 元 ， 同 比 增 长 1 2% 。 前 四 个 月 净 投 放 现 金 3 1 9 3亿元。 二、前四个月人民币贷款增加1 0 . 0 6万亿元 4月末，本外币贷款余额2 6 9 . 5 4万亿元，同比增长6 . 8%。月末人民币贷款余额2 6 5 . 7万亿元， 同比增长7 . 2%。 前四个月人民币贷款增加1 0 . 0 6万亿元。分部门看，住户贷款增加5 1 8 4亿元，其中，短期贷款 减少2 4 1 6亿元，中长期贷款增加7 6 0 1亿元；企（事）业单位贷款增加9 . 2 7万亿元，其中，短 期贷款增加3 . 0 3万亿元，中长期贷款增加5 . 8 3万亿元，票据融资增加2 8 9 9亿元；非银行业金 融机构贷款增加7 6 8亿元。 4月末，外币贷款余额5 3 3 3亿美元，同比下降1 8 . 1%。前四个月外币贷款减 ...