Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating for this specific topic in the given content. Core Viewpoints - At the July 2025 meeting, the Fed decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.25 - 4.5%, with dissenting votes from Bowman and Waller who supported a 25BP rate cut. Powell's hawkish stance dampened market expectations of a September rate cut [2]. - The market adjusted its September rate - cut expectations after the Fed's press conference, with short - term interest rates rising significantly, the US dollar continuing to strengthen, and the US stock market under pressure. As of 4:30 Beijing time, the 2Y and 10Y US Treasury yields rose 6.8BP and 2.8BP respectively compared to before the meeting, the US dollar index rose 0.6% to around 100 points, and the S&P 500 fell 0.4% at the close [2]. - There is no high certainty of a September rate cut by the Fed. If the unemployment rate remains stable or rises slightly in the next two months, the Fed may keep the interest rate unchanged to wait for the longer - term impact of tariffs. The delay in tariff transfer to consumers may imply consumer weakness [2]. - Regarding US Treasury yields, if inflation does not rise significantly in the next two months, the bond market opportunities will increase in the fourth quarter; if inflation rises significantly, US Treasury yields may rise further. Short - term, it is recommended to maintain a relatively short duration [2]. - For the US dollar index, short - term short - covering may bring some upward space. The view that the US dollar index will operate in the 95 - 105 range is maintained [2]. Summary by Related Content Fed Meeting Decision - In the July 2025 meeting, the Fed kept the policy rate at 4.25 - 4.5%. Bowman and Waller voted against, supporting a 25BP rate cut this month [2]. Powell's Stance - Powell's stance was hawkish, not pre - setting expectations for the September policy decision. He adheres to data - dependence. In terms of inflation, he aims to prevent one - time price increases from turning into persistent inflation and hopes to maintain a moderately restrictive monetary policy. He believes the impact of tariffs on inflation is in the early stage and the transfer to consumers may be slower than expected [2]. - Regarding employment, he thinks the job market is relatively stable despite some downside risks. In terms of economic growth, he admits the overall economic growth has slowed, and the large fluctuations in net exports may affect consumer spending, making it difficult to interpret some signals. He also believes consumers' credit conditions are good despite the slowdown in consumption growth [2]. Market Reaction - After the Fed's press conference, the market lowered its September rate - cut expectations. Short - term interest rates rose significantly, the US dollar continued to strengthen, and the US stock market was under pressure. As of 4:30 Beijing time, the 2Y and 10Y US Treasury yields rose 6.8BP and 2.8BP respectively compared to before the meeting, the US dollar index rose 0.6% to around 100 points, and the S&P 500 fell 0.4% at the close [2]. Outlook for September Fed Meeting - There is no high certainty of a September rate cut. If the unemployment rate remains stable or rises slightly in the next two months, the Fed may keep the interest rate unchanged to wait for the longer - term impact of tariffs. The delay in tariff transfer to consumers may imply consumer weakness [2]. US Treasury Yields Outlook - If inflation does not rise significantly in the next two months, the bond market opportunities will increase in the fourth quarter; if inflation rises significantly, US Treasury yields may rise further. Short - term, it is recommended to maintain a relatively short duration, and the downward revision of rate - cut expectations provides some allocation opportunities [2]. US Dollar Index Outlook - After the US - EU trade agreement, the US dollar index has risen. Short - term short - covering may bring some upward space. The view that the US dollar index will operate in the 95 - 105 range is maintained [2].

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Current Stance - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, aligning with market expectations[2] - Two FOMC members voted against the decision, advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut[2] - The Fed's statement acknowledged a slowdown in economic activity during the first half of the year, indicating a shift from previous assessments[2][5] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Powell expressed concerns about inflation, noting that tariffs are beginning to impact prices, particularly in categories like toys and furniture[3][4] - The June CPI data showed a rebound, suggesting rising inflationary pressures[3] - The second quarter GDP growth was reported at an annualized rate of 3%, significantly recovering from a -0.5% in the first quarter, largely due to a 5 percentage point contribution from net exports[8] Group 3: Future Rate Cut Expectations - The Fed is expected to implement 1-2 rate cuts within the year, with a higher likelihood of a cut in November rather than September[9] - The effective tariff rate is projected to remain around 15%-16%, which may lead to moderate inflation increases but is not expected to significantly impact overall inflation levels[6][9] - The Fed's decision-making will depend on clearer signals regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation and economic conditions[7][9]

Economic Data Support and Policy Considerations - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates is supported by economic data, with Q2 GDP annualized growth reaching 3%, significantly exceeding expectations and reversing Q1's 0.5% contraction [2] - The growth was primarily driven by net exports contributing 5 percentage points to GDP, rather than domestic demand, indicating a weakening of real demand momentum [2] - Private domestic final sales grew only 1.2%, the lowest since late 2022, suggesting a gradual decline in underlying demand [2] Inflation and Employment Market Insights - Overall inflation data has been below expectations for five consecutive months, but the core PCE price index remains at a high level of 2.5%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [3] - Structural inflation pressures are evident, with furniture prices rising 1% and appliance prices increasing by 1.9%, suggesting that tariff effects are gradually transmitting to consumer prices [3] - The unemployment rate remains low at 4.1%, but there are signs of divergence, with youth unemployment rising to 5.8%, the highest in a decade, and initial jobless claims increasing [3][4] Divergent Views Among Federal Reserve Officials - Waller's dissent is based on concerns about the labor market, indicating that economic momentum has significantly slowed and risks to achieving full employment are rising [4] - Bowman’s dissent focuses on inflation trends, suggesting that inflation is steadily returning to the 2% target and that the actual impact of trade policies on inflation is minimal [5] - Both officials emphasize the need for a cautious approach to potential rate cuts, reflecting differing views on the economic outlook and inflation dynamics [4][5] Market Expectations and Rate Cut Possibilities - Following the July meeting, market expectations for a September rate cut have cooled, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut dropping from 64% to 45% [7] - The upcoming economic data will be crucial in determining the likelihood of a rate cut, with indicators such as core PCE inflation and unemployment rates being closely monitored [8] - The Federal Reserve is currently divided into three camps regarding the timing and necessity of rate cuts, reflecting the complexity of the economic landscape [7] Policy Direction and Upcoming Events - The July meeting marks a significant evolution in the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, with two officials dissenting for the first time since 1993, highlighting internal divisions [9] - The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting is expected to provide important guidance on future monetary policy, with historical precedents indicating its significant influence on market expectations [10] - The next FOMC meeting on September 16 will be a critical observation point, with substantial debate on whether to initiate a rate cut cycle [10]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell did not provide guidance on a potential interest rate cut in September, stating it is too early to assert whether the Fed will lower the federal funds rate as the financial markets expect [1][4][10] - Current interest rates are deemed "moderately restrictive," with inflation slightly above the 2% target, and the labor market remains strong with low unemployment [10][14][29] - The Fed is prepared to adjust its policy stance based on upcoming economic data and the balance of risks, with significant data expected before the September meeting [11][30][46] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Activity - Inflation has significantly decreased from its mid-2022 peak but remains slightly above the 2% target, with the overall PCE price index rising by 2.5% over the past 12 months [6][14] - Service inflation has slowed significantly, while goods inflation is rising, influenced by tariffs that have begun to impact prices [6][14][19] - Economic activity has shown signs of slowing, primarily due to reduced consumer spending, with GDP growth for the first half of the year at approximately 1.2% compared to 2.5% the previous year [4][13][36] Group 3: Labor Market - The labor market remains balanced, with unemployment rates low and indicators similar to those from a year ago, despite a slowdown in job growth [5][40] - Wage growth is slowing but still outpaces inflation, indicating a stable labor market overall [5][14] - The Fed is closely monitoring the labor market for potential downtrends, as both labor demand and supply are decreasing [40][41] Group 4: Tariffs and Their Impact - The impact of tariffs on inflation is still being assessed, with the process of price transmission expected to be slower than previously anticipated [8][9][19] - There is a reasonable assumption that the inflationary effects of tariffs may be temporary, but there is also a risk that these effects could become more persistent [8][9] - The Fed is committed to using its tools to prevent temporary price increases from evolving into sustained inflation [9][20] Group 5: Future Outlook - The Fed will continue to evaluate all evidence and data to determine the appropriate policy stance, with a focus on balancing inflation and employment risks [7][30][46] - The upcoming months will provide critical data that could influence the Fed's decision on interest rates, with a focus on achieving the dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability [28][30][46] - The Fed emphasizes the importance of timing in policy adjustments to avoid unnecessary harm to the labor market while addressing inflation concerns [20][30]

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Core Viewpoints - The price of aluminum shows a slight fluctuation, the price of alumina weakens, and the price of cast aluminum alloy follows that of electrolytic aluminum [1]. - The trend strength of aluminum is neutral (0), alumina is weakly bearish (-1), and aluminum alloy is neutral (0) [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Futures Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract is 20,625, down 165 from T - 5; the LME aluminum 3M closing price is 2,608, down 31 from T - 5. The trading volume and open interest of relevant contracts have different degrees of changes. The LME cancelled warrant ratio is 3.10%, down 0.08% from T - 1 [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract is 3,326, down 29 from T - 5. The trading volume and open interest of relevant contracts also have significant changes [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract is 20,070, and the trading volume and open interest have decreased to some extent [1]. b) Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots is 514,000 tons, unchanged from T - 1 and up 34,000 tons from T - 5. The profit of electrolytic aluminum enterprises is 3,920.26, with a slight increase compared to T - 1 [1]. - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price is 3,271, up 26 from T - 5. The prices of imported alumina from different regions also show certain changes [1]. - **Aluminum Bauxite**: The prices of aluminum bauxite imported from Australia, Indonesia, and Guinea have different degrees of changes, and the price of Yangquan aluminum bauxite has also changed [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 is -291, and the prices of related products and inventory have also changed [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of Shaanxi ion - membrane liquid caustic soda (32% converted to 100%) is 2,610, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. c) Comprehensive News - The Chinese government will implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, release domestic demand potential, and prevent and resolve risks in key areas [3]. - The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings, with two voting members supporting rate cuts due to slow economic growth, and Powell has not given guidance on a September rate cut [3].

Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% during the July meeting, with two members voting against this decision, marking the first such occurrence since 1993[1] - The statement shifted from a dovish tone to a more hawkish stance, with Powell emphasizing the strength of the labor market and the distance of inflation from the target[1][2] Economic Outlook - Powell acknowledged the economy's growth has moderated, with the assessment changing from "expand at a solid pace" to "moderated"[1][2] - The probability of a rate cut in September dropped to 45%, down from previous expectations, reflecting a cumulative decline of 7 basis points in rate cut expectations for the year[1][3] Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields rose by 6 basis points and 2 basis points, reaching 3.94% and 4.37% respectively[1] - The US Dollar Index increased by 0.4% to 99.8, while the S&P 500 and gold prices fell by 0.8% and 0.9% to $3324 per ounce respectively[1] Employment and Inflation Insights - Powell highlighted a solid labor market but admitted to existing downside risks, with hiring slowing and labor supply decreasing[2][3] - Tariffs are contributing to inflation, with companies expected to gradually pass on costs to consumers, keeping inflation slightly above the Fed's target even when excluding tariff impacts[2] Future Rate Cut Considerations - The potential for a rate cut in September hinges on economic data from July and August, particularly employment and inflation metrics[3] - If employment data weakens or tariff impacts on inflation are less than expected, the Fed may still consider rate cuts in the September meeting[3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to fluctuate, while treasury bonds are expected to weaken [1][6]. - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar, iron ore, and coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate [1][9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper, aluminum, nickel, tin, gold, and silver are expected to trade within a range or be observed [1][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to fluctuate; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range fluctuations; short - term short positions are recommended for soda ash's 09 contract [1][23]. - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to adjust in a fluctuating manner; apples and jujubes are expected to be strong in a fluctuating market [1][38]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs and eggs are recommended to be short - sold on rallies; corn and soybean meal are expected to trade within a range; oils are expected to be strong in a fluctuating market [1][41]. Core Views The report analyzes the market trends of various futures varieties based on global economic data, trade policies, and supply - demand fundamentals. Factors such as trade frictions, economic data releases, and policy changes have significant impacts on futures prices. Each variety has its own unique supply - demand situation and influencing factors, resulting in different price trends and investment suggestions [6][9][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: With various international trade policies, economic data, and domestic policy factors, the index futures are expected to fluctuate. The dense disclosure period of mid - year reports in late August may lead to minor fluctuations [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The market risk appetite has significantly increased, which may still restrict the bond market. Although there was a phased rebound on Wednesday, it is expected to weaken in a fluctuating manner [7]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: After the Sino - US talks and the Politburo meeting, the over - optimistic expectations have cooled. The supply and demand are in a relatively balanced state, and it is expected to enter a short - term fluctuating pattern [9]. - **Iron Ore**: Although there are expectations of production cuts for the military parade, the high profit of domestic finished products and export situation support the iron ore price. It is expected to adjust and fluctuate at a high level [9]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market has supply disturbances and cautious demand. The coke market has a tight supply - demand pattern, and there is still an expectation of a fifth price increase [10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by trade policies and seasonal factors, the copper price is expected to enter a range - bound trading situation [12]. - **Aluminum**: Due to factors such as changes in bauxite prices, production capacity changes, and weakening downstream demand, the aluminum price is recommended to be observed [14]. - **Nickel**: The nickel industry has an oversupply situation in the medium and long term, and it is recommended to short - sell on rallies [18]. - **Tin**: The supply and demand gap of tin ore is improving, and it is recommended to conduct range - bound trading [19]. - **Silver and Gold**: With the decline in market risk aversion, the precious metal prices are weakly fluctuating, but there is support at the bottom, and range - bound trading is recommended [20]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high supply, uncertain export sustainability, and policy - driven expectations, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [24]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is abundant, the demand growth is slowing down, and it is expected to fluctuate. There may be opportunities to go long on dips for the far - month 10 contract [26]. - **Styrene**: The fundamentals have limited positive factors, and the macro - environment is relatively warm. It is expected to fluctuate [29]. - **Rubber**: Supported by cost and with the end of the price correction, it is expected to be strong in a fluctuating market [31]. - **Urea**: The supply is slightly reduced, the demand is gradually increasing, and the price is expected to be weak first and then strong [32]. - **Methanol**: The supply and demand are stabilizing, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [34]. - **Polyolefins**: Affected by the macro - environment and supply - demand fundamentals, it is expected to decline in the short term [35]. - **Soda Ash**: After the positive feedback, the price is over - estimated, and short - term short positions are recommended for the 09 contract [36]. Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: With an increase in global cotton production and consumption, and a relatively tight spot market, the price is expected to adjust in a fluctuating manner [38]. - **Apples**: With low inventory, the price is expected to remain high and strong in a fluctuating market [39]. - **Jujubes**: With good second - and third - crop flower fruit - setting and strong demand in the sales area, the price is expected to be strong in the short term [39]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: With weak supply - demand fundamentals, short - selling on rallies is recommended, and attention can be paid to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [41]. - **Eggs**: In the short term, the price increase is limited due to supply and demand factors. In the fourth quarter, the supply pressure may ease. Short - selling on rallies is recommended for the 09 contract, and long - buying on dips is recommended for the 12 and 01 contracts [43]. - **Corn**: The short - term supply and demand are in a game, and range - bound trading is recommended. Attention can be paid to the 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [44]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the short term, it is recommended to be cautious when going long; in the medium and long term, long positions can be established on dips [46]. - **Oils**: Supported by various factors, short - term long positions are recommended for the 09 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, and attention can be paid to the spread rebound strategy of soybean oil and palm oil's 09 contracts [48].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold: FOMC's decline releases hawkish expectations; Gold trend intensity is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][6]. - Silver: Prices have fallen from recent highs; Silver trend intensity is -1, also suggesting a bearish view [1][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Price Data**: - Gold:沪金2510昨日收盘价773.78,日涨幅0.30%,夜盘收盘价770.68,夜盘跌幅0.32%;黄金T+D昨日收盘价769.48,日涨幅0.30%,夜盘收盘价767.00,夜盘跌幅0.32%;Comex黄金2510昨日收盘价3327.90,日涨幅0.08% [2]. - Silver:沪银2510昨日收盘价9192,日跌幅0.03%,夜盘收盘价9090.00,夜盘跌幅1.32%;白银T+D昨日收盘价9166,日涨幅0.03%,夜盘收盘价9062,夜盘跌幅1.23%;Comex白银2510昨日收盘价37.175,日跌幅3.15% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - Gold:沪金2510合约对2512合约价差昨日成交206,379,较前日减少13,553,持仓214,105,较前日增加1,698;Comex黄金2510昨日成交199,901,较前日增加90,801,持仓322,961,较前日增加256,168 [2]. - Silver:沪银2510昨日成交689,866,较前日增加97,939,持仓392,370,较前日减少373;Comex白银2510昨日成交71,289,较前日增加29,664,持仓121,325, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - **ETF and Inventory**: - Gold: SPDR黄金ETF持仓955.37,较前日减少1;沪金库存33,462千克,较前日增加2,199;Comex黄金库存（前日）38,166,532金衡盎司,较前日增加132,494 [2]. - Silver: SLV白银ETF持仓（前天）15,149.90,较前日减少24;沪银库存1,208,094千克,较前日增加3228;Comex白银库存（前日）502,296,559金衡盎司,较前日增加599,929 [2]. - **Price Spreads**: - Gold:黄金T+D对AU251 -价差昨日为 -4.30, unchanged from the previous day;买沪金12月抛6月跨期套利成本昨日为4.77,较前日减少0.87;黄金T+D对伦敦金的价差昨日为385.68,较前日减少0.60 [2]. - Silver:白银T+D对AG2510价差昨日为32,较前日增加6;沪银2510合约对2512合约价差昨日为 -8,441,较前日增加16;买沪银12月抛6月跨期套利成本昨日为73.41,较前日减少11.3;白银T+D对伦敦银的价差昨日为4,247,较前日减少799 [2]. - **Exchange Rates**: - 美元指数昨日为99.94,日涨幅1.05%;美元兑人民币（CNY即期）昨日为7.18,日涨幅0.04%;欧元兑美元昨日为1.15,较前日减少0.01;美元兑日元昨日为148.59,较前日增加0.05;英镑兑美元昨日为1.21, unchanged from the previous day [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Fed Policy**: The Fed has kept rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings, with two voting members supporting rate cuts due to slowing economic growth. Powell did not provide guidance on a September rate cut, emphasizing uncertainties in tariffs and inflation and stating that the job market has not weakened [2][4]. - **China's Policies**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to decide on the convening of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee and analyzed the current economic situation and economic work. China's preliminary budget for child - rearing subsidies is 90 billion yuan, and applications will be accepted in late August [7]. - **Trade Policies**: Trump imposed a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper, etc. (excluding cathode copper and refined copper), causing a 20% plunge in New York copper prices. The US suspended the minimum exemption for low - value goods. Trump said the US would impose a 25% tariff and "punishment" on India, and announced a comprehensive trade agreement with South Korea, imposing a 15% tariff, with South Korea to provide $350 billion in investment to the US. Trump postponed the implementation of a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods by seven days [7]. - **Economic Data**: The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was 3%, better than expected. The US ADP employment in July increased by 104,000, exceeding expectations, but employers are more cautious about hiring decisions [7]. - **Natural Disaster**: An 8.8 - magnitude earthquake struck the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia, triggering a tsunami alert in the Pacific Rim, and China launched a second - level emergency response to marine disasters [5].

他说，虽然更高关税税率对一些商品价格开始出现更清晰的影响，但其对经济活动和通胀的整体影响仍 有待观察。 美联储自今年1月份议息会议以来连续维持利率不变，这一立场面临美国总统特朗普以及其他政府高级 官员以及国会议员的批评。特朗普不断施压鲍威尔降息并多次威胁解雇鲍威尔引发外界对美联储货币政 策独立性的担忧。 鲍威尔在记者会上表示，美联储在调整利率时不会考虑对政府带来的成本影响和联邦政府的财政需要。 他说："如果我们真的这样做，这对我们的信誉和美国财政政策信誉都不是好事。" （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经纽约7月30日电（记者刘亚南）美国联邦储备委员会30日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布 将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间不变。这一决定符合市场预期，也是美联储货币政 策会议连续第五次决定维持利率不变。 不过，美联储公开市场委员会12名具有投票权的成员中，9人投票支持维持利率不变的同时，美联储负 责监管的副主席米歇尔·鲍曼（Michelle Bowman）和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller） 均投票支持降息25个基点，美联储理事阿德里安娜·库格勒（Adriana ...

鲍威尔还提到，在关于政策的讨论中，多数观点认为，当前通胀高于目标水平，就业处于目标水平，因 此政策应保持一定的限制性。事实上，通胀距离目标比就业更远，劳动力市场是目前拥有的最佳经济数 据，从辞职率、职位空缺数和失业率等指标来看，就业市场仍然稳固，许多就业指标与一年前的情况类 似。但市场仍存在下行风险，在下次会议之前，还有两份就业和通胀报告。 新华财经北京7月31日电（郭洲洋）美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议后，美联储主席杰罗姆· 鲍威尔召开新闻发布会，就当前美国经济状况、货币政策调整及未来展望进行了详细阐述。 鲍威尔指出，尽管当前充满不确定性，美国经济仍然处于稳健状态。失业率保持在较低水平，劳动力市 场已达到或接近最大就业状态。他认为，当前的货币政策立场让美联储有充足准备，在面对未来可能的 经济变化时能及时应对。 关于通胀，鲍威尔表示，通胀虽然较2022年高点回落，但仍略高于2%的目标。目前存在"追赶性通 胀"，这反映了过去的压力，且无法将关税对通胀的影响单独剥离出来，同时服务业通胀正在下降，商 品通胀正在上升。他特别指出，关税开始在消费者价格中体现，核心通胀中有0.3至0.4个百分点是由关 税因素导 ...