美国续请失业金人数升至三年半新高，显示美国就业市场正在放缓。 周四，根据美国劳工部发布的数据，6月14日当周，美国续请失业救济人数升至197.4万人，高于市场预期195万人，为2021年11月以来的最高水平，且过去 一个半月来持续大幅上升，反映出失业者失业时间延长。 不过，截至6月21日当周，首次申请失业救济人数降至23.6万人，低于预期的24.3万人。用于平滑短期波动的 "四周移动平均值" 也降至24.5万人。 政策方面，美联储上周维持利率不变。鲍威尔表示，要等待更清晰的关税影响再决定是否行动。他指出，目前就业市场并未迫切需要降息。本周鲍威尔在国 会听证会上重申，劳动力市场总体上仍然稳健。 分析称，续领失业救济人数大幅增加，而首申人数保持稳定，这说明企业正在放缓招聘，但仍然保留现有员工。彭博经济研究员Stuart Paul表示： "虽然企业不太愿意主动裁员，但那些被裁掉的人却越来越难找到新工作。" 晚8:30数据公布后，美债收益率均短线拉升，随后继续下滑。现货黄金跌幅扩大，一度跌至3320美元下方。 美国里士满联储主席巴尔金周四警告称，到今年夏天，企业可能因关税上升而面临涨价压力，这可能会引发消费者的抵制， ...

美国芝加哥联储主席Goolsbee（2025年FOMC票委）：数据显示就业市场相当稳定、稳健。 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee indicates that the job market remains stable and is close to full employment levels [1] Group 1 - The employment market is showing signs of stability, suggesting a robust economic environment [1] - The current employment levels are approaching what is considered full employment, indicating a healthy labor market [1]

美联储巴尔金：近期通胀数据令人鼓舞，就业市场状况良好。 ...

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is not prepared to yield to Trump's immediate interest rate cut demands, indicating that certain conditions must be met for a change in stance [1] - Powell emphasizes the need to observe inflation data before deciding on interest rate cuts, particularly in light of high tariffs potentially raising inflation temporarily [2][3] - The upcoming June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is critical; a month-over-month increase of 0.2% or higher could delay rate cuts until September, while a low increase like May's 0.1% could reignite July cut expectations [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is tasked with maintaining low inflation while also ensuring a strong job market, with Powell suggesting that significant deterioration in employment could prompt earlier or more aggressive rate cuts [3] - Despite a low unemployment rate of 4.2%, signs of stress in the job market are emerging, including a slowdown in hiring and an increase in unemployment claims [3]

Core Insights - The economic situation is described as robust, indicating a strong overall performance in the economy [1] - The job market remains solid, suggesting stability in employment levels and opportunities [1] Economic Overview - The current economic conditions are characterized by strength and resilience, reflecting positive growth indicators [1] - Employment statistics show a firm job market, which is crucial for consumer spending and overall economic health [1]

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京6月25日电（崔凯）随着美联储连续第四次将基准利率维持在4.25%至4.5%的区间，多位 联储高官近日陆续就未来政策路径发表看法，显示出内部对降息时机及经济前景存在显著分歧。 克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特·哈马克（Loretta Mester）周二表示，当前利率水平"仅具适度限制性"，距离 中性利率已非常接近。她在伦敦一场会议的预备发言中指出，尽管近期通胀有所回落，但距离实现美联 储2%的目标仍有"一段路要走"。她强调，目前的通胀数据具有滞后性，可能无法准确反映如油价上涨 等最新变化所带来的通胀预期风险。 "在委员会启动非常温和的降息、将政策回归中性水平之前，政策可能会在一段时间内保持不变。"哈马 克说道。她所指的"委员会"即为联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC），即美联储的决策机构。 本月早些时候，美联储决定继续按兵不动，以观察特朗普政府关税政策及其他措施对经济增长和通胀的 影响。此外，中东局势紧张也加剧了全球经济不确定性。 尽管6月会议上公布的利率预测显示，美联储官员中位数预期今年将有两次降息，但观点分歧明显—— 有7位官员预计全年不会降息。 监管议题同步推进：杠杆率改革提上议程 除了货币 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the need to maintain current interest rates until there is clearer evidence of sustained inflation decline, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change, with potential for two rate cuts later this year [1][2]. - Powell noted that while U.S. economic growth has slowed, it remains resilient, and the labor market is close to maximum employment levels. However, inflation is still above the Fed's 2% target, indicating no clear conditions for rate cuts yet [1][3]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including the May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and June Consumer Price Index (CPI), are critical for future monetary policy decisions [3]. Group 2: Political and Regulatory Context - Powell maintained that the Fed's policy decisions are based on objective assessments of economic outlook and inflation, independent of political pressures, despite criticism from former President Trump regarding high interest rates [4][5]. - The Fed is evaluating potential adjustments to the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio (eSLR) rules, which some market participants believe restrict trading capabilities of systemically important banks [7]. Group 3: External Factors and Inflation Risks - Powell acknowledged the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on energy prices but stated that such short-term fluctuations are unlikely to significantly influence long-term monetary policy decisions [6].

美联储威廉姆斯：今年经济将以较慢的速度增长，就业市场将保持稳健。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Williams stated that the US economy is in a good state, with a strong labor market, and that a moderate tightening of monetary policy allows for the examination of new data [1] Economic Conditions - The US economy is characterized as being in a good state, indicating overall economic stability and growth potential [1] - The labor market remains robust, suggesting low unemployment and strong job creation [1] Monetary Policy - A moderate tightening of monetary policy is being implemented, which provides flexibility to assess incoming economic data [1]