Report Overview - The report is the Shanjin Futures Crude Oil Daily Report, updated on July 17, 2025 [1][2] Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report Core Views - OPEC+ is likely to increase production, and high - frequency data are gradually confirming this. Geopolitical factors may still have a pulsed impact, but it's difficult to reach the previous intensity. Crude oil trading may return to supply - demand fundamentals, with a definite medium - to - long - term bearish outlook. Attention should be paid to potential impacts from geopolitics, reciprocal tariffs, and the implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" Act [2] - The mid - term trend of crude oil is in a neutral oscillation pattern, with support and resistance around $65 and $68.3 per barrel respectively. There is a possibility of trading based on implicit expectations, but it also faces medium - to - long - term pressure. The trading strategy is to sell on rallies, pay attention to timing, or use out - of - the - money put options. If WTI breaks below the $65.1 per barrel support again in the short - term, short positions can be considered [2] Data Summary Futures Prices - Sc crude oil futures price is 499.40 yuan/barrel, up 2.70 yuan or 0.54% from the previous day, down 19.20 yuan or 3.70% from last week. WTI is at $65.53 per barrel, up $0.56 or 0.86% from the previous day and $0.52 or 0.80% from last week. Brent is at $67.28 per barrel, up $0.65 or 0.98% from the previous day, down $0.54 or 0.80% from last week [2] - Sc - WTI spread is $4.28 per barrel, down $0.13 or 2.99% from the previous day, down $3.08 or 41.84% from last week. Sc - Brent spread is $2.53 per barrel, down $0.22 or 8.06% from the previous day, down $2.02 or 44.37% from last week. Brent - WTI spread is $1.75 per barrel, down $1.01 or 36.48% from the previous day, down $2.80 or 61.57% from last week [2] Spot Prices - OPEC's basket of crude oil is at $68.35 per barrel, up $0.36 or 0.53% from last week. Brent DTD is at $68.17 per barrel, down $1.05 or 1.52% from last week. Oman is at $69.20 per barrel, up $1.40 or 2.06% from last week. Dubai is at $68.75 per barrel, up $0.95 or 1.40% from last week. ESPO is at $62.76 per barrel, up $0.49 or 0.79% from last week [2] Inventory Data - Strategic petroleum reserve is 402.53 million barrels, up 0.06% from last week. Commercial crude oil is 415.11 million barrels, down 1.39% from last week. Cushing crude oil is 22.22 million barrels, down 2.05% from last week. Gasoline is 227.94 million barrels, down 0.90% from last week. Distillates are 105.33 million barrels, down 3.72% from last week [2] Other Information - The total Sc crude oil warehouse receipts are 5.911 million barrels, up 46.71% from last week. Non - commercial net positions are 233,000 contracts, up 0.83% from last week. Commercial net positions are - 270,500 contracts, down 4.44% from last week. Non - reported net positions are 37,600 contracts, up 34.17% from last week [2] Market News - From July 5th to July 11th in the US, EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 3.859 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 3.399 million barrels, refined oil inventories increased by 4.173 million barrels, Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 213,000 barrels, and strategic petroleum reserve inventories decreased by 300,000 barrels [3] - Drone attacks in Iraq's Kurdistan region reduced oil production by 140,000 - 150,000 barrels per day [4] - The export volume of CPC Blend crude oil from the Black Sea in August is set at 1.66 million barrels per day, the same as in July [5] - Saudi Arabia adopted a new measurement standard to report June's crude oil production, making it comply with quota requirements. Its "market supply" in June was 9.36 million barrels per day, while the actual production was 9.75 million barrels per day [5] - Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei stated that Iran is ready to respond to any new military attacks and can cause greater damage to its opponents [5] - Indonesia's Deputy Energy Minister said that energy imports from the US will be through long - to - medium - term contracts and will reduce imports from some countries like Angola, UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar [5] - Russia's oil production in the first five months of 2025 was 211 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5%. In July, Russia's oil price in rubles was still 11% lower than the 2025 budget target [6] - US President Trump mentioned tariff policies for small countries, the performance of Fed Chairman Powell, and said he had no plan to fire Powell currently but changes would occur in the next eight months [6][8] - The EU proposed a nearly 2 trillion - euro ($2.3 trillion) budget plan for the next seven - year period, including a 589.6 - billion - euro competitiveness, prosperity, and security fund and 293.7 billion euros for the common agricultural policy [7]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, slightly above market expectations and the highest increase since February [1] - The month-on-month CPI rose by 0.3%, matching market expectations and higher than the 0.1% increase in May, marking the second-highest monthly increase in 2025 [1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.2% month-on-month, accelerating from 0.1% in May, while the year-on-year core CPI growth was 2.9%, slightly below the expected 3% [1] Group 2 - The market is currently pricing in a 97.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates in July, indicating that the June inflation data has not significantly impacted short-term rate cut expectations [2] - There is a notable divergence in market expectations regarding a potential rate cut in September, with a 48% probability of maintaining rates and a 52% probability of a rate cut, reflecting growing concerns about possible inflation rebounds [2] - The article suggests that while June's CPI data shows some warming, the overall performance remains moderate, and the impact of U.S. tariff policies on commodity prices is beginning to emerge, warranting further observation [2]

就在上周，特朗普阵营对白宫进一步加强了对美联储管理方式的批评。白宫管理与预算办公室主任拉塞 尔·沃特致函鲍威尔，称特朗普对美联储位于华盛顿的历史性总部25亿美元的翻修项目出现严重成本超 支感到"极为忧虑"。对此，鲍威尔回应称，已请求美联储监察长对该项目进行全面审查。 （文章来源：智通财经） 这一言论再次凸显特朗普对美联储货币政策的强烈不满。近期，他屡次公开批评美联储未能在高利率背 景下及时降息，认为这妨碍了美国经济发展。而美联储官员则坚持当前货币政策的独立性，强调在未能 确认特朗普对多个贸易伙伴加征关税是否会重新引发通胀之前，不宜贸然降息。 尽管特朗普曾多次要求鲍威尔辞职，根据美国法律，总统无权因货币政策分歧而直接解雇美联储主席。 鲍威尔于2017年底由特朗普提名出任美联储主席，四年后又获民主党总统拜登提名连任。他已明确表 示，将履行任期至2026年5月15日的承诺。 据外媒援引多位知情人士的消息，美国总统特朗普本周二在白宫椭圆形办公室会见众议院共和党议员 时，提出是否应该罢免美联储主席鲍威尔。据悉，在场多人表示，特朗普在会上暗示他将采取行动。该 消息公布后，现货黄金瞬间飙涨，截至发稿涨超1.4%，站上337 ...

Inflation Overview - In June, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, up from 2.4% in May and slightly above the market expectation of 2.6%[8] - The core CPI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9%, aligning with market expectations[8] - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.3%, while the core CPI rose by 0.2%, slightly below the expected 0.3%[8] Core Goods and Services - The impact of tariffs on core goods is beginning to show, with notable increases in clothing and furniture prices, which rose by 0.9 and 0.6 percentage points respectively compared to May[12] - However, inflation in automobiles and pharmaceuticals showed weakness, with declines of 0.5%, 0.3%, and 0.1% respectively, contributing to a 0.2 percentage point drag on CPI[12] - Core services, particularly medical and transportation services, saw a rebound, with airfares increasing by 2.6 percentage points, although still in negative growth territory[14] Future Outlook - Inflation is expected to continue its moderate rise, with tariffs likely to exert further pressure on consumer prices in the coming months[17] - The average tariff rate on U.S. imports was approximately 8.7% in May, reflecting a 6.5 percentage point increase from the end of 2024[17] - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach, with no immediate rate cuts anticipated due to ongoing inflationary pressures[18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for the Federal Reserve to adopt a "patient" approach in adjusting the benchmark interest rate amid economic uncertainties [1][5] - Collins expresses confidence in the resilience of the current U.S. economy, suggesting that the overall impact of tariffs may not be as severe as previously feared, due to the flexibility of businesses in adjusting profit margins and resilient consumer spending [3][8] - The analysis of the tariff transmission mechanism indicates that while rising import prices may push inflation up, the adverse effects on economic growth and employment may be limited due to the buffering capabilities of businesses and consumers [3][5] Group 2 - The current policy deadlock at the Federal Reserve is highlighted, with a consensus that the likelihood of a rate cut in July is low, as decision-makers await data to assess the actual impact of trade policies on the economy [5][8] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are noted, with differing opinions on the implications of new tariff policies for inflation and the potential for rate cuts [5] - Collins' stance on "active patience" provides the Federal Reserve with a valuable observation window, especially as the tariff suspension period is extended, allowing for a more thorough evaluation of the economic impact [8]

Group 1 - Kevin Hassett is a leading candidate to replace Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve Chair, with significant backing from President Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin [1][5] - The selection process for the new Fed Chair has officially begun, with Trump deeply involved in the decision-making [5][6] - Hassett has aligned closely with Trump's economic views, contrasting with previous advisors who attempted to moderate Trump's impulses [2][6] Group 2 - Concerns are rising about the independence of the Federal Reserve, as Trump's criticism of Powell and the potential appointment of a compliant Chair could threaten market stability [1][3] - Economists warn that a Fed Chair perceived as aligned with the White House may lead to increased inflation and volatility in the bond market [3] - The ongoing debate about the Fed's monetary policy and its implications for the economy is critical, especially with upcoming midterm elections [5][6] Group 3 - Hassett's previous experience includes serving as the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers and working as an economist at the Federal Reserve [6] - Trump's dissatisfaction with Powell has been evident, with public criticisms escalating over time, particularly regarding interest rate decisions [8][9] - The potential for confusion in the markets exists if a former Fed Chair remains on the board after their term, which could complicate the transition to a new leadership [9]

丨证券研究报告丨 世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 通胀如期回升，美联储或继续观望 ——美国 6 月 CPI 数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 6 月，美国 CPI 上升略超预期，核心 CPI 符合预期。那么结构上的走势有何具体变化？ 对美联储降息有何影响？其一，地缘局势升温，使能源环比涨幅上升。其二，汽车、服装环比 一下一上，核心商品通胀压力上升；住房通胀环比增速回落，核心服务通胀压力温和。往前看， 我们认为：短期，美国就业稳健、通胀温和、关税暂缓期延长，美联储决策空间充足，7 月大 概率继续观望；中期，各国贸易谈判的结果仍是重点，关税实质落地规模，及其对美国经济的 影响将是决定后续货币政策的关键。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 敬成宇 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 通胀如期回升，美联储或继续观望 2] ——美国 6 月 CPI 数据点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 ...

基本面： 周三（7月16日）亚盘时段，现货黄金徘徊于隔夜回吐区间低位震荡，目前交投于3327美元附近。周二金价下跌0.5%，收报3324.68美元/盎司，因美国6月 CPI增幅为 1 月份以来最大，帮助美元指数创下近三周新高，美债收益率升至6周高位，打压金价走势。美元指数在过去四个交易日连续上涨，周二最高触 及98.70，创6月23日以来新高。美元的强势使得以美元计价的黄金对持有其他货币的投资者变得更加昂贵，从而对金价构成压力。 美债收益率的持续上涨在周二也打压金价的走势。周二美国10年期公债收益率上涨至4.487%，创6月11日以来最高，30年期公债收益率触及5.022%的六周峰 值。收益率的上升反映了市场对通胀预期的调整以及对美联储政策的重新评估。损益平衡通胀率的全面上升进一步表明，市场预计未来通胀压力将持续存 在。五年期和十年期损益平衡通胀率分别达到2.501%和2.411%，为近期高点。债券收益率的攀升通常对黄金不利，因为黄金作为无息资产在高收益率环境 中吸引力下降。然而，当前收益率上升的背景是通胀预期的温和回升，而非经济过热，这为黄金提供了一定的支撑。 日线级别，金价昨日录得阴线收盘回吐此前涨势，令 ...

Inflation Overview - In June, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, up from 2.4% in May and slightly above the market expectation of 2.6%[6] - The core CPI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9%, aligning with market expectations[6] Core CPI Analysis - The month-on-month CPI growth rose by 0.2 percentage points to 0.3%, matching market expectations, while the core CPI increased by 0.2%, slightly below the expected 0.3%[10] - Energy prices were the main driver of the inflation increase, with energy inflation rising by 1.9 percentage points to 1.0% month-on-month[13] Tariff Impact on Core Goods - The impact of tariffs on core goods is beginning to show, with notable month-on-month increases in clothing (0.9 percentage points) and furniture (0.6 percentage points) prices[14] - However, inflation in automobiles and pharmaceuticals showed weakness, with respective month-on-month declines of 0.5% and 0.3%[15] Core Services Performance - Core services, particularly medical and transportation services, showed strong inflation performance, with airfares increasing by 2.6 percentage points month-on-month[20] - The housing component saw a decline in growth, primarily due to a significant drop in hotel accommodation prices, which fell by 2.8 percentage points to -2.9%[20] Future Outlook - Inflation is expected to continue its moderate rise, with tariffs likely to exert further pressure on consumer prices in the coming months[24] - The average tariff rate on U.S. imports was approximately 8.7% in May, reflecting a 6.5 percentage point increase from the end of 2024[24] Federal Reserve Stance - Given the current economic conditions and the gradual transmission of tariff pressures, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach, making it difficult to lower interest rates in the short term[25]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-7-16 通胀符合预期，贵⾦属短线延续震荡 美国6⽉CPI数据同环⽐皆有回升，但幅度符合预期，基数效应较低、能源 价格阶段性回升以及关税传导的部分体现共同推升通胀，数据公布后降息 预期变动不⼤，美元及美债收益率短线⾛⾼，对贵⾦属价格形成⼀定压 制。短期⻩⾦预计维持区间震荡，中⻓期看多观点不变。⽩银在40美元关 ⼝受阻后，短线震荡回落。中期维持对⽩银趋势看多，弹性谨慎的观点。 重点资讯： 1）美国6月未季调CPI同比升2.7%，为2月以来新高，预期升2. 7%，前值升2.4%；季调后CPI环比升0.3%，预期升0.3%，前值升0. 1%。未季调核心CPI同比升2.9%，预期升3.0%，前值升2.8%；季调后 核心CPI环比升0.2%，预期升0.3%，前值升0.1%。 2）美国7月纽约联储制造业指数5.5，预期-9，前值-16。其中，制造 业就业指数9.2，前值增4.7；制造业新订单指数2.0，前值-14.2； 制造业物价获得指数25.7，前值26.6。 3）美国财政部长贝森特建议，美联储主席鲍威尔在2026年5月卸任时 同时 ...