研究报告 铁矿周报 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 黑色板块研究员：魏云 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 电话：17752110915 邮箱：497976013@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 15 日星期一 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：上周铁矿 2605 合约下跌 1.43%。 基本面：据 Mysteel，上周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 78.63%，环比减少 1.53%，同比减少 1.92%；钢厂盈利率 35.93%，环比减少 0.43%，同比减少 12.12%；日均铁水产量 229.2 万吨，环比减少 3.10 万吨。全国 45 个港口进 口铁矿库存 15431.42 万吨，环比增 130.61 万吨。 操作策略：上周铁水产量继续下降，港铁矿石库存继续累库，终端负 反馈较强，铁矿目前预期偏弱，预计以偏弱震荡为主。 单边：逢高轻仓偏空对待 套利：观望 期权：观望 【投资评级：★★】 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性 ...

钢材周报 2025 年 12 月 15 日 部分钢材出口管制 期价震荡承压 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/9 ⚫ 宏观面：中央经济工作会议2025年12月10日至11日在北 京举行，会议明确坚持稳中求进的工作总基调，要继续 实施更加积极的财政政策。要继续实施适度宽松的货币 政策。房地产作为重点风险领域，强调着力稳定房地产 市场，因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给，鼓励收购存 量商品房重点用于保障性住房等。商务部、海关总署公 布对部分钢铁产品实施出口许可证管理，自2026年1月 1日起执行。 ⚫ 基本面：上周螺纹产量179万吨，环比减少11万吨，表 需203万吨，减少14万吨，厂库141万吨，减少2万吨， 社库339万吨，减少22万吨，总库存480万吨，减少24万 吨。热卷产量309万吨，减少6万吨，厂库84万吨，增加 4万吨，社库313万吨，减少 ...

Group 1: Restaurant Industry Insights - The report emphasizes the resilience of the restaurant industry, highlighting key companies such as Yum China, Xiaocaiyuan, Haidilao, and Dashishi as potential investment opportunities due to their operational capabilities and market positioning [2][10] - The restaurant sector is expected to benefit from government policies aimed at boosting service consumption, with specific measures outlined to enhance the sector's growth [7] - Restaurant revenue is projected to account for 12% of total retail sales in 2024, with growth rates of 20% and 5% for 2023 and 2024 respectively, indicating a stronger performance compared to overall retail sales [8] Group 2: Computer Industry Outlook - The computer industry is anticipated to see significant advancements in AI applications, with a focus on increasing computational power and model sophistication [3][12] - The report highlights the emergence of large AI models and their commercial applications, indicating a strong growth trajectory for AI-related technologies [12][14] - The demand for AI capabilities is expected to drive investments in domestic AI chip development, with a focus on enhancing performance and establishing a robust software ecosystem [13] Group 3: Aerospace and Defense Sector - Hangya Technology is positioned as a key player in the aerospace engine components market, leveraging its expertise in precision forging technology to meet rising international demand [4][16] - The company reported a revenue of 530 million yuan and a net profit of 78 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.95% in revenue but a decline of 16.04% in net profit [16][17] - The report forecasts significant revenue growth for Hangya Technology, projecting revenues of 817 million yuan, 1.09 billion yuan, and 1.51 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits increasing substantially [17] Group 4: Macro Economic Context - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a stable growth outlook, with a projected GDP growth target of around 5% for 2026, supported by proactive fiscal and monetary policies [30] - The report notes a focus on domestic demand as a primary driver of economic growth, with specific measures aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and enhancing employment [30][31] - Financial data indicates a slight decline in loan growth, with a notable drop in household loans, while overall social financing growth is stabilizing [18][19]

资讯编辑：刘佳惠 021-26093916 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行，习近平总书记出席会议并发表重要讲话。会议期间，部 分与会同志接受记者采访，畅谈对会议精神的学习认识和下一步工作打算。中国人民银行行长潘功胜表 示，党的二十届四中全会为"十五五"时期规划了发展蓝图，这次会议为"十五五"良好开局、做好明年经 济工作制定了科学、清晰的指引。中国人民银行将认真贯彻落实习近平总书记重要讲话精神，继续实施 好适度宽松的货币政策，把握好政策实施的力度、节奏和时机，为经济稳定增长和金融市场稳定运行创 造良好的货币金融环境；防范化解重点领域金融风险，维护金融稳定；积极践行习近平总书记提出的全 球治理倡议，推动完善全球金融治理，深化金融改革和高水平对外开放，维护国家金融安全。 免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授 权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China reported that by the end of November, broad money (M2) and social financing scale grew by 8.0% and 8.5% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a moderately loose monetary policy environment conducive to high-quality economic development [1] Group 1: Monetary and Financing Data - By the end of November, the total social financing scale reached 440.07 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5% [4] - In the first eleven months, the total social financing increment was 33.39 trillion yuan, which is 3.99 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1] - The M2 balance reached 336.99 trillion yuan by the end of November, with a year-on-year growth of 8%, which is 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year [5] Group 2: Loan Growth and Structure - In the first eleven months, RMB loans increased by 15.36 trillion yuan, with a single-month increase of 390 billion yuan in November [2] - The balance of RMB loans at the end of November was 271 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, reflecting a slight decrease of about 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The weighted average interest rate for newly issued loans in November was approximately 3.1%, down about 30 basis points from the same period last year [3] Group 3: Government Bonds and Direct Financing - The new government debt issuance for the year totaled 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan compared to last year, significantly contributing to the social financing scale [4] - In the first eleven months, net financing from corporate bonds reached 2.24 trillion yuan, which is 312.5 billion yuan more than the previous year [5] - The financing from non-financial corporate stock issuance was 420.4 billion yuan, an increase of 178.8 billion yuan year-on-year [5] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The current financial data, including social financing scale, M2, and RMB loans, are generally stable and significantly higher than the nominal economic growth rate, reflecting effective counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments [5] - The positive factors supporting economic recovery are expected to continue, with the annual economic growth target of 5% likely to be achieved [5]

Key Points - The article discusses various important updates in the financial and investment sectors, including new stock offerings, index adjustments, and government policies aimed at stabilizing the economy and boosting consumption [2][4][7][11]. New Stock Offerings - The article highlights the subscription for Jianxin Superconductor, which has an issuance price of 18.58 yuan and a price-to-earnings ratio of 61.97 times, with a subscription limit of 10,000 shares per account [2]. Index Adjustments - Multiple indices in the A-share market, including the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index, will undergo sample adjustments effective December 15 [4][6]. - The China Securities Index Company also announced adjustments for indices such as CSI 300 and CSI 500, which will take effect on the same date [5][6]. Economic Policies - The Central Economic Work Conference indicated that the economic indicators for 2025 are expected to exceed expectations, with a projected GDP of around 140 trillion yuan [7]. - The People's Bank of China emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain financial market stability and promote economic growth [8]. - Social financing (社融) increased by 33.39 trillion yuan in the first eleven months of 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.99 trillion yuan [9]. - The Financial Regulatory Bureau stressed the importance of risk prevention and support for stabilizing the real estate market [10]. - A joint notice from the Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Bureau aims to enhance collaboration to boost consumption [11]. - The Ministry of Finance plans to increase central budget investments and optimize local government bond management to stabilize investment [12]. Company News - Baogang Group achieved breakthroughs in high-grade non-oriented silicon steel smelting technology [13]. - Changfei Fiber's subsidiary plans to establish an investment fund [14]. - Yipin Hong's associated company in the U.S. is set to be acquired [15]. - Saiyi Information is leading a national major science and technology project [16]. - Jiankang Medical's U.S. subsidiary received pre-market notifications from the FDA for its products [17]. - Zoli Pharmaceutical intends to acquire a group of assets for 356 million yuan [18]. - Jiaze New Energy plans to invest in two wind power projects with a total capacity of 450 MW and an investment of approximately 2.366 billion yuan [19]. - Gu'ao Technology's actual controller will change, and the stock will resume trading on December 15 [20]. - Xiangsheng Medical proposed a profit distribution plan of 3 yuan per 10 shares for the third quarter [21]. - Anbotong is planning to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [22].

1. 公开市场操作 央行公告称，12月12日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1205亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量1205亿元，中标量1205亿元。Wind数据显 示，当日1398亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净回笼193亿元。当周则实现净投放47亿元。 Wind数据显示，12月15日-19日当周，央行公开市场将有6685亿元逆回购到期。此外，12月15日将有4000亿元182天期买断式逆回购到期、800亿元国库现 金定存到期。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 银行间市场资金面充沛无虞，DR001加权平均利率小降并停留在1.27%附近。匿名点击（X-repo）系统上，隔夜报价在1.25%供给充足；非银机构质押信用 债融入隔夜资金报价仍在1.45%一线。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为3.90%。 // 债市综述 // （IMM） （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在1.66%附近，较上日小幅上行。 （*数据来源：Wind-利差分析） 6. 国债期货主力合约集体下跌 （*数据来源： ...

中央财办分管日常工作的副主任、中央农办主任韩文秀12月13日在中国国际经济交流中心主办的"2025- 2026中国经济年会"上表示，做好明年经济工作，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，加大逆周期和跨周期调 节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。去年9月26日中央政治局会议以来，我国先后出台实施了一系列 政策措施，明年还将根据形势变化出台实施增量政策。 对于中央经济工作会议部署的"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"，韩文秀表示，下一步，要深入实施 提振消费专项行动，制定实施城乡居民增收计划，继续提高城乡居民基础养老金，要以新需求引领新供 给，以新供给创造新需求。适应消费结构变化扩大优质商品和服务的供给，优化"两新"政策实施，给予 地方更多自主空间，要清理消费领域不合理的限制措施，释放服务消费的潜力。 （文章来源：中国证券报） 在货币政策方面，韩文秀表示，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。要灵活搭配、高效运用降准降息等多 种政策工具，保持流动性充裕，促进社会综合融资成本低位运行，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同 经济增长、物价总水平预期目标相匹配。要着力畅通货币政策传导机制，做好科技金融、绿色金融、普 惠金融、养老金融、数字金融五 ...

Macroeconomic Overview - The central economic work conference emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and expenditure levels, with expectations for fiscal spending and financing to remain strong next year [2][21][24] - The monetary policy is set to continue with moderate easing, utilizing various tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [2][21][22] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report maintains the asset allocation order as: equities > commodities > bonds > cash, indicating a preference for equities in the current market environment [3][4] - The focus on the implementation of "incremental" policies is highlighted for equities, suggesting an overweight position [4][38] - Bonds are recommended for underweight allocation due to potential short-term impacts from the "stock-bond seesaw" effect [4][43] - Commodities are suggested for standard allocation, with attention to the progress of fiscal incremental policy implementation [4][49] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.08% this week, while the CSI 300 index futures fell by 0.07% [1][12] - The futures for coking coal dropped significantly by 11.72%, and iron ore main contracts fell by 3.49% [1][12] - The ten-year government bond yield decreased by 1 basis point to 1.84%, with active ten-year government bond futures rising by 0.10% [1][12][43] Financial Data Insights - In the first eleven months, RMB loans increased by 15.36 trillion yuan, and the total social financing scale increased by 33.39 trillion yuan, exceeding last year's total by 3.99 trillion yuan [24] - The CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November, marking the highest increase since March 2024, while the PPI saw a year-on-year decline of 2.2% [24][25] Sector-Specific Insights - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the ChiNext Index leading gains at 2.74%, while the Shanghai Dividend Index saw a decline of 2.63% [38] - Key sectors such as telecommunications and defense showed strong performance, while coal and oil sectors faced declines [38][39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [4][25]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slowdown in credit growth, with November's new social financing at 2.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 159.7 billion yuan, and new loans of 390 billion yuan, down 190 billion yuan year-on-year. The M1 money supply grew by 4.9%, while M2 increased by 8.0%, both showing a decline in growth rates compared to the previous month [1][4]. - The report anticipates that while credit growth may not accelerate significantly, the central bank's commitment to a "moderately loose monetary policy" and support for banks' net interest margins will likely lead to improved revenue for the banking sector in 2026 [4][2]. - Retail demand remains under pressure, with a net decrease in household credit of nearly 206 billion yuan in November, reflecting ongoing deleveraging among consumers. The report suggests that a recovery in retail demand will depend on improvements in household income [4][2]. Summary by Sections Credit and Financing - In November, new loans totaled 390 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 190 billion yuan, with total new loans from January to November at 15.4 trillion yuan, down 1.7 trillion yuan year-on-year. The growth rate of RMB loans remained stable at 6.3% [4][1]. - The report notes that corporate loans saw a slight increase, with 270 billion yuan in new loans, while the issuance of corporate bonds and off-balance-sheet financing provided support against government debt and credit drag [4][7]. Monetary Supply - The M1 money supply grew by 4.9% year-on-year, down from 7.1% in the previous year, while M2 increased by 8.0%, showing a slight decline in growth rates [4][8]. - The report indicates that the decrease in deposits reflects a shift in non-bank deposits, which is closely related to the activity in the equity market [4][8]. Future Outlook - The report expresses optimism for 2026, expecting that the focus on corporate lending will continue, and improvements in the Producer Price Index (PPI) may enhance corporate profitability, positively impacting bank earnings [4][2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the effectiveness of stimulus policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, which could lead to a more favorable environment for banks [4][2].