Core Viewpoint - BMI analysts project that the average price of Brent crude oil will be $68 per barrel in 2025, influenced by seasonal demand and geopolitical risks [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The oil market fundamentals remain tight due to seasonal demand, which is expected to drive prices higher [1] - Increased risk premium arises from new attacks by Houthi forces on ships crossing the Red Sea [1] - The decision by President Trump to delay the reintroduction of "reciprocal" tariffs until August is seen as a positive factor for the market [1] Group 2: Future Projections - Global oil demand is declining while production is rising, potentially leading to oversupply in the market [1] - BMI forecasts that Brent crude oil may face new pressure in the second half of 2025 and into 2026 [1] - The projected average price for Brent crude oil in 2026 is $67 per barrel [1]

Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its forecast for global oil supply growth for the year, following OPEC+'s decision to increase oil production while simultaneously lowering demand expectations due to a significant slowdown in oil usage in recent months [1] Group 1: Supply Forecast - The IEA now expects global oil supply to increase by 2.1 million barrels per day, an upward revision of 300,000 barrels per day from previous estimates [1] - This adjustment comes after OPEC+ decided to lift the latest production cut agreement from April and accelerate production increases in May, June, July, and August [1] Group 2: Demand and Market Conditions - Despite the increase in supply, the IEA notes that refining rates are rising to meet summer travel and power generation demands, leading to a tighter market [1] - The agency indicates that price indicators suggest a higher level of tightness in the physical oil market than what is reflected in their supply-demand balance data, which shows a significant surplus [1]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index has re-entered the 3500-point mark after nine months, with trading volume exceeding 1 trillion yuan for 31 consecutive days, which has encouraged investors [1] - Investors are experiencing confusion due to the rapid rotation among sectors such as pharmaceuticals, technology, new energy, and banking, leading to difficulties in decision-making [1] Group 2 - Northbound capital, often referred to as "smart money," has shown a significant inflow trend from Q4 2024 to Q2 2025, with the construction and decoration sector receiving the most attention [2][4] - The construction and decoration sector is benefiting from a shift in supply-demand dynamics due to government policies aimed at reducing "involution" in the industry, which has been struggling with oversupply [4][5] Group 3 - Recent government policies are expected to boost the real estate sector, which in turn will positively impact the construction and decoration industry [4][5] - Two main strategies for investors to follow Northbound capital include investing in ETFs that track the China Securities Index for infrastructure and construction materials [6] Group 4 - Specific ETFs tracking the China Securities Index for infrastructure have shown stable returns, with the Yinhua China Securities Infrastructure ETF achieving a return of 9.00% [8] - ETFs tracking the China Securities Index for construction materials have outperformed those for infrastructure, with the Guotai China Securities Construction Materials ETF returning 12.92% [9]

Group 1: Report Title and Investment Rating - Report Title: "Shanghai Lead May Face Adjustment" [1] - Investment Rating: Not provided Group 2: Core View - The supply of primary and recycled lead is increasing, but the peak - season demand has not started yet. The supply - demand situation of lead is weakening marginally. With the loosening of waste battery costs, the pressure on high lead prices is increasing, and lead prices may face adjustment. Attention should be paid to the possibility of further improvement in demand later [7] Group 3: Fundamental Changes Processing Fees - In May 2025, China imported 103,900 tons of lead concentrates, a 6% month - on - month decrease. The domestic lead concentrate imports continued to decline month - on - month but remained at a moderately high level. The supply of domestic concentrates became more tense, and the processing fees of domestic and foreign lead concentrates continued to decline at a low level. In July, the domestic monthly processing fee was 400 - 700 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan; the imported monthly processing fee was - 60 - - 30 US dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 15 US dollars. The domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 400 - 700 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week; the imported weekly processing fee was - 70 - - 40 US dollars/dry ton, also remaining flat week - on - week [3] Supply - In May 2025, the electrolytic lead output was 331,200 tons, a 3.53% month - on - month increase and a 14.7% year - on - year increase. In June (regular maintenance season), most enterprises planned to start maintenance after mid - June, and the reduction was obvious in late June. The output of recycled refined lead in May was 223,500 tons, significantly lower than expected, a 36.4% month - on - month decrease and a 16.5% year - on - year decrease. In June, the price of waste batteries rebounded, but the profit of recycled lead enterprises did not improve, and the scale of production reduction of recycled lead was still large. Last week, the operating rate of primary lead in three provinces decreased by 3.78 percentage points to 66.21% week - on - week. In July, some primary lead enterprises resumed production after maintenance, and the operating rate rebounded significantly this week. Last week, the weekly operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces was 34.62%, a 4.96 - percentage - point decrease week - on - week. Last week, the price of waste batteries increased with the rising lead price, and the profit of recycled lead improved. This week, the price of waste batteries fluctuated slightly downward, and the profit of recycled lead continued to recover. Some recycled lead enterprises were more willing to resume production, and the supply of recycled lead was expected to gradually increase. Recently, the internal - external price ratio fluctuated at a low level, and the lead ingot import window remained closed [4] Consumption - Last week, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces decreased week - on - week. At the end of the year, many large enterprises closed their accounts and reduced or stopped production. The willingness of dealers to take delivery was average during the week. Battery factories actively reduced prices to destock, but the effect was not good. The operating rate of large lead - acid battery enterprises was 63%, slightly lower than the previous week. The inventory of finished batteries was 30 days, and the inventory of raw material lead ingots was 4 days. The operating rate of small and medium - sized battery factories was 60 - 65%, the inventory of finished batteries was 21 days, and the raw material inventory was 4 days. This week, the rainy season ended in many places, and battery enterprises that reduced production at the end of the year resumed production. However, it was currently in the transition period between the off - season and the peak - season, and the peak - season demand had not started yet. Market dealers reported that orders were poor and the willingness to replenish inventory was low [5] Spot and Inventory - As of the week ending June 27, the premium of the domestic lead spot to the active month's contract decreased, and the premium was 35 yuan at the weekend. The discount of the LME lead spot narrowed slightly, and the discount was 22.14 US dollars at the end of last week. As of the week ending June 27, the weekly inventory of LME lead decreased by 10,650 tons to 273,400 tons. Although the inventory decreased significantly from a high level, it was still at an absolute high level in the past five years. The weekly inventory of SHFE lead increased by 638 tons to 51,900 tons. As of June 30, the domestic social inventory was 52,300 tons, and the inventory was gradually accumulating. Currently, the social inventory was at a moderately low level [6] Group 4: Market Outlook and Strategy - Last week, the LME lead inventory decreased significantly from a high level but remained at an absolute high level in the past five years. The spot discount narrowed slightly, and the supply - demand of overseas lead remained relatively loose. In May, the import volume of lead concentrates continued to decline month - on - month but was still higher than the same period in previous years. The monthly processing fees of domestic and foreign lead ores further declined at a low level, and the expectation of tight supply of lead concentrates intensified. In July, many primary lead enterprises resumed production after maintenance. The price of waste batteries loosened, the profit of recycled lead enterprises was recovering, and the willingness of recycled lead enterprises to resume production was high. It was expected that the short - term tight supply situation of lead would ease. This week, the rainy season ended in many places, and battery enterprises that reduced production at the end of the year resumed production. However, it was currently in the transition period between the off - season and the peak - season, and the peak - season demand had not started yet. Market dealers reported that orders were poor and the willingness to replenish inventory was low, and the spot was quoted at a discount. Overall, the supply of primary and recycled lead increased, the peak - season demand had not started yet, the supply - demand situation of lead weakened marginally, and with the loosening of waste battery costs, the pressure on high lead prices increased, and lead prices may face adjustment. Attention should be paid to the possibility of further improvement in demand later [7]

证券研究报告 · 宏观报告 · 宏观深度报告 宏观深度报告 20250711 房地产对中国经济的影响已明显减弱 ■ 理性看待经济动能转换过程中地产的负增长 ■ 宏观视角:地产投资对经济增长的影响已明显减弱 > 其一,从经济增长的角度,尽管过去几年地产投资维持着 10%的负增 长,但我国经济总量维持着平稳增长,且地产投资对经济增长的影响在 逐步减弱。从直接影响来看,今年一季度我国房地产开发投资累计同比 ） 乐吴让莽 2025年07月11日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书:S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书:S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 刘子博 执业证书:S0600524120014 liuzb(@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《6 月超预期非农令市场降息预期延 后至9月》 2025-07-06 《政府债融资多增或推升 6月社融增 增速录得-9.9%,较去年全年的-10.6%小幅收窄,对经济增长的影响也由 去年全年的-0.9%降至了-0.7%;从间接影响来看,一方面,地产及其拉 动相关行业的增加值占 GDP ...

Market Review - The main corn futures contract closed down 0.09% at 2320 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Summary - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that due to dry weather in unharvested areas, corn harvesting progressed rapidly, with 70.4% of the planted area harvested. Argentina is the world's third-largest corn exporter, with an expected corn production of 49 million tons for the 2024/25 season [2] - The USDA's weekly export sales report indicated that as of the week ending July 3, 2025, the net sales of U.S. corn for the 2024/25 season were 1,262,100 tons, significantly higher than the previous week and 70% above the four-week average. For the 2025/26 season, net sales were 888,600 tons, down from 940,200 tons the previous week [2] - The latest USDA drought report showed that as of the week ending July 8, approximately 12% of U.S. corn planting areas were affected by drought, unchanged from the previous week and up from 7% in the same period last year [2] Institutional Perspectives - According to Jianxin Futures, overall processing demand is unlikely to increase, while wheat and imported corn continue to supplement market supply, leading to a slightly pessimistic market sentiment and a minor price correction. However, the rising costs of storage funds may limit the decline. The 2509 contract is expected to follow the spot market with a focus on fluctuations, and attention should be paid to weather impacts on new crops in corn-producing areas [3] - Southwest Futures noted that domestic corn supply and demand are tending towards balance, with favorable policies and recovering consumption. The sale of old grain in major production areas is nearing completion, and port inventories are quickly returning, reducing inventory pressure and providing strong support at the bottom for corn prices. From January to May, corn imports sharply decreased, and import margins have increased, suggesting potential for higher import volumes in the future. The China Grain Reserves Corporation continues to sell corn through online auctions, and imported corn is beginning to be released. The narrowing price gap with substitutes may face upward pressure, indicating a cautious outlook [3]

Core Insights - The report indicates a slight recovery in Beijing's Grade A office market, with a net absorption of 12,960 square meters in Q2 2025, reversing the negative absorption trend from the previous quarter [1][2] - The average vacancy rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 18.4%, stabilizing at levels seen in Q4 2024 [2][3] - Average rental prices fell by 1.6% to 233.1 yuan per square meter per month, with a year-over-year decline of 7.4% compared to Q4 2024 [1][2] Market Supply and Demand - Only one new project, the China Overseas Financial Center Tower 1, was completed in H1 2025, with no new projects expected to be delivered in the second half of the year [2] - The high-tech sector led leasing transactions, accounting for 34% of total leased area, followed by finance and professional services at 22% and 16%, respectively [2] Rental Trends - Financial Street's average rent fell below 400 yuan, decreasing by 6.1% to 389.2 yuan per square meter, reflecting pressure from state-owned enterprises relocating to self-owned offices [3] - The Central Business District (CBD) saw a 2.8% decline in average rent to 255.4 yuan per square meter, with a vacancy rate of 15.1% [3] - The Zhongguancun area experienced a significant drop in vacancy rate by 3.2 percentage points to 12.8%, driven by demand from high-tech companies [3] Future Outlook - A supply peak is anticipated in 2026, with 757,000 square meters of office space expected to be delivered [4] - Companies are expected to prioritize flexible lease terms in response to market uncertainties, with landlords likely to offer incentives such as customized renovations and improved service quality [4]

Report Title - Asphalt: Demand Recovery, Sufficient Supply — 20250711 [1] Report Analysts - Zhang Yongge, Qualification No.: F0282934, Investment Consulting License No.: Z0011351 [2] - Zhang Yanwen, Qualification No.: F03088843 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - International oil prices are expected to remain low due to factors such as US sanctions on oil - producing countries and OPEC+ production increases. In the short term, there is uncertainty in the change of asphalt production capacity utilization rate, but overall supply is expected to show an increasing trend. The demand is in the critical period of the "14th Five - Year Plan", with infrastructure projects progressing steadily. The demand in the north may increase after reduced rainfall, while the demand recovery in the south is not obvious. In the short term, asphalt spot prices will mainly remain stable due to the game between cost and demand [5] Summary by Directory Spot Market - **Price**: As of July 10, the reference prices of asphalt in different regions vary. In Shandong, the refinery reference price is 3580 - 3700 yuan/ton, and the main - business reference price is 4050 - 4070 yuan/ton; in East China, the trucking transaction range is 3670 - 3850 yuan/ton; in North China, the heavy - traffic asphalt reference price is 3750 - 3760 yuan/ton; in Northeast China, the mainstream reference price is 3850 - 4080 yuan/ton; in South China, the heavy - traffic asphalt reference price is 3600 - 3680 yuan/ton; in Northwest China, the heavy - traffic asphalt reference price is 3650 - 4350 yuan/ton [3] - **Cost End**: The US plan to impose high tariffs on multiple countries has increased market concerns about demand prospects. The market expects OPEC+ to maintain a large production increase in September, raising concerns about supply surplus [3] - **Supply**: This week, some refineries in the Northwest and Southwest slightly increased production, and major refineries in South China and Shandong resumed asphalt production. The capacity utilization rate of 77 heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 32.7%, a 1.0% increase from the previous week. The weekly total asphalt output was 56.7 tons, a decrease of 0.8 tons or 1.4% from the previous week. Next week, Jiangsu Xinhai is expected to resume production, but some refineries in Shandong will continue to switch to producing residual oil, and main - business refineries in East China will operate at low loads [3] Demand - The total shipment volume of domestic asphalt enterprises was 39.8 tons, a 2.6% increase from the previous week. The shipment volume growth in East and Southwest China was prominent. In East China, the main refineries mainly shipped by ship, which increased the shipment volume; in Southwest China, some refineries increased production capacity and sold some goods externally, promoting the increase in shipment volume. The capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt was 14.4%, a 0.4% increase from the previous week. Next week, due to rainfall in some southern regions, the actual rigid demand is limited, while in the north, with less rainfall, market demand is expected to be slightly supported [4] Market Outlook - International oil prices are expected to remain low. The supply may increase, and the demand in the north may be slightly supported after reduced rainfall, while the demand recovery in the south is not obvious. In the short term, asphalt spot prices will mainly remain stable due to the game between cost and demand [5] Data Sources - Steel Union, Longzhong Information, Hongye Financial Research Institute [8][10][12]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for black metals shows mixed performance, with iron ore futures experiencing a strong upward trend, reaching a high of 770.0 yuan/ton and a gain of 2.07% [1] - Supply is rebounding while iron and steel production is seasonally weakening, leading to increased inventory at ports, which raises the risk of overvaluation for iron ore [1] - The recent increase in iron ore prices is supported by macroeconomic factors, with expectations of continued high-level fluctuations in prices [1] Group 2 - Demand for iron ore remains resilient due to profit-driven raw material needs, despite a current decline in iron and steel production [2] - Global iron ore shipments have decreased recently, primarily due to disruptions in Australian shipments, while port inventory is being depleted rapidly [2] - The short-term macro outlook is strong, with attention on the continued export of steel billets and the positive feedback effect on raw materials [2]

| | ル期現日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年7月11日 | | | 王涛庭 | Z0019938 | | 田和 | | | | | | | 7月10日 | 7月9日 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 江苏一级 8170 | 8170 | 0 | 0.00% | | 期价 | Y2509 7944 | 7920 | 24 | 0.30% | | 县差 | Y2509 226 | 250 | -24 | -9.60% | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏6月 09 + 210 | 09 +210 | 0 | - | | 仓单 | 22725 | 22826 | -101 | -0.44% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | 7月10日 | 7月9日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 广东24度 8670 | 8700 | -30 | -0.34% | | 期价 | P2509 8638 | 8678 | -40 | -0.46% | | 墓差 | P2509 32 | 22 | ...