Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The soybean oil futures market experienced a significant decline, with the main contract showing a notable drop and a significant reduction in open interest, indicating a growing sentiment of capital leaving the market. The sudden negative news regarding the US biodiesel policy and the high inventory levels at domestic ports jointly pressured the market. Despite the support from the high premium of the spot market, the fundamental bearish situation remains difficult to change. In the short term, the market lacks effective positive drivers, and it is expected that the futures price will maintain a weak and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the MPOB and USDA reports and the actual performance of pre - holiday stocking demand [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On September 10, 2025, the soybean oil futures market showed a downward trend. The main contract y2601 closed at 8,256 yuan/ton, down 162 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a change rate of - 1.92%. The trading volume was 448,885 lots, and the open interest was 611,919 lots, a decrease of 19,824 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The total trading volume of soybean oil contracts was 512,750 lots, and the total open interest was 858,927 lots, a decrease of 21,352 lots from the previous day [4]. - **Related Market**: The soybean oil options traded 34,460 lots throughout the day, with an open interest of 87,808 lots, an increase of 2,445 lots, and 0 lots exercised [7]. 3.2 Spot Market The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang on the day was 8,510 yuan/ton, the settlement price of the main contract y2601 was 8,322 yuan/ton, and the basis was 188 yuan/ton [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors On September 9, commodity funds net - sold 1,000 lots of CBOT soybean futures contracts, 3,500 lots of corn futures contracts, 1,000 lots of wheat futures contracts, net - bought 4,000 lots of soybean meal futures contracts, and net - sold 5,500 lots of soybean oil futures contracts [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current stainless steel market presents a dual - factor game pattern of "strengthened cost support and suppression from loose supply - demand". Technically, the narrow - range oscillation pattern remains unchanged. In the short term, the price may maintain range - bound fluctuations, and a breakthrough requires a substantial recovery in demand or a signal of supply - side contraction [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - On September 9, 2025, the stainless steel ss2511 futures contract oscillated strongly. It reached the lowest point of 12,880 at the opening and then rose to the highest point of 12,980, closing at 12,950. The trading volume was large at the opening and when reaching the highest point, and the open interest increased slightly throughout the day, with a trading volume of 109,512 lots [2] 3.1.2 Variety Prices - The prices of 12 stainless steel futures contracts show a normal market pattern with near - term contracts lower and far - term contracts higher. Near - term contracts have a larger price increase, while far - term contracts have a smaller increase. The total open interest of the variety is 287,952 lots, a decrease of 1,557 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract ss2511 is 123,179 lots, an increase of 5,300 lots, and the open interest of the second - main contract ss2510 decreased by 9,541 lots [4] 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Basis Data - In the past 10 trading days, the basis of the active contract ss2511 has changed significantly, with a maximum of 275 yuan/ton, a minimum of 120 yuan/ton, and 130 yuan/ton on the day. In the spot market, taking the 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coil plate with rough edges as an example, the prices in Foshan Yongjin, Wuxi Yongjin, Zibo Hongwang, and Shanghai Hongwang are 12,950 yuan/ton, 13,100 yuan/ton, 12,800 yuan/ton, and 12,950 yuan/ton respectively [7] 3.2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - In the past 10 trading days, the registered warehouse receipts have slightly increased, with a maximum of 100,431 tons and a minimum of 98,534 tons. On the day, it was 98,534 tons, a decrease of 422 tons from the previous day [8] 3.3 Influencing Factors - The fundamentals of Shanghai nickel have support but no obvious decisive dominance. The first - phase benchmark price of nickel ore in September has decreased. Although there has been some rainfall in the main mining areas in the Philippines recently, the overall production and shipment have not been significantly affected, and the domestic arrival inventory remains at a high level. The trend of ferronickel is also strong, with a recent transaction at 955 yuan/nickel point in a southern factory, and the bottom support is strong. The profit has been repaired under continuous price corrections. The stainless steel spot prices are basically flat. The anti - dumping duty on South Korea's stainless steel thick plates from China has been implemented, and there are still disturbances in exports to the EU. Entering the traditional consumption peak season of "Golden September", the short - term consumption growth rate is slightly faster, and the price is relatively firm due to cost support [9][10] 3.4 Market Outlook - On September 9, the closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract was 12,950 yuan/ton. The current market is in a game between strengthened cost support and loose supply - demand. Technically, the narrow - range oscillation pattern remains unchanged. In the short term, the price may maintain range - bound fluctuations, and a breakthrough requires a substantial recovery in demand or a signal of supply - side contraction [11]

期 货 研 究 2025 年 09 月 12 日 铝：震荡偏强 氧化铝：弱势运行 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20915 | 125 | 310 | ૩૨૨ | 820 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 21005 | l | l | l | l | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2679 | 57 | 89 | 114 | 214 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 106885 | 13636 | -44331 | ୧୫୫୪ | -27009 | | | 电解铝 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 204582 | 8142 | -2035 | -21363 | 1021 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research variety: Beans - Report cycle: Daily - Date of report: September 4, 2025 - Researcher: Qi Jianhua [1] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Core View - Currently, domestic soybean prices fluctuate, recent imported soybean prices trend weakly, port inventory accumulation slows, and enterprise crushing profits weaken again. The price of the main soybean futures contract A2511 oscillates around the 5 - day moving average, and the short - term bearish power on the disk weakens. The price of the A2511 contract may continue to fluctuate around the 5 - day moving average [15]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On September 4, 2025, the main continuous contract of DCE soybean futures oscillated strongly. The opening price was 3951 yuan/ton, the highest was 3982 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3951 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 3965 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03% from the previous day. The trading volume was 101,673 lots, the open interest was 199,022 lots, and the daily increase in positions was - 6675 lots [2]. - **Variety price**: Different contracts have different closing prices, price changes, and trading volumes. For example, the A2509 contract closed at 4056 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton or 0.76%; the A2511 contract closed at 3965 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03% [3]. 4.2 Spot Market - The basis of soybean No. 1 today is 95 yuan/ton, showing a slight weakening. The total registered warehouse receipts of soybean No. 1 today are 8510 lots, a decrease of 64 lots compared with the previous trading day [5]. 4.3 Influencing Factors - **Important events**: The average domestic soybean price today is 4039 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.81%. The prices have fluctuated in recent days. The soybean inventory in major ports today is 6.7903 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.76%, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed [8][10]. - **Industry information**: The recent arrival - at - port duty - paid prices of imported soybeans are generally weak. The recent arrival - at - port duty - paid price of US Gulf soybeans is 4583.97 yuan/ton, that of Brazilian soybeans is 3993.74 yuan/ton, and that of Argentine soybeans is 3852.45 yuan/ton. The enterprise crushing profit has continued to decline from a high level and has weakened again [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the soybean meal m2601 contract is expected to mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term, as the approaching US soybean harvest season clarifies production expectations, and concerns about the uncertainty of US soybean export prospects lead to a continued decline in overnight CBOT soybean futures. Domestically, the high volume of imported soybean crushing results in a situation where the production of soybean meal exceeds the提货 quantity of terminal feed and breeding enterprises, weakening the price - holding intention of oil mills [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - On September 4, 2025, the soybean meal m2601 contract showed a weak oscillating trend, with the price rising first and then falling. It closed at 3048 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton or 0.20% from the previous day. The daily trading volume was 956,943 lots, and the open interest was 2,043,281 lots [2]. 3.1.2 Variety Prices - On the same day, the prices of all soybean meal futures contracts declined. The total open interest of the variety contracts was 4,203,542 lots, an increase of 20,034 lots from the previous trading day [3]. 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Spot Quotes - On September 4, 2025, the spot quotes of soybean meal in some domestic regions were stable with a slight decline. For example, the price in Rizhao decreased by 10 yuan to 2990 yuan, while the prices in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, and Dongguan remained unchanged at 2990 yuan, 3060 yuan, and 2960 yuan respectively, all with a protein content of 43% [7][8]. 3.2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The total number of soybean meal registered warehouse receipts increased by 3,750 lots to 19,375 lots. The warehouse receipts at Nantong Cargill increased from 0 to 3,750 lots, while those at other warehouses remained unchanged [9]. 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry News - The import cost of soybeans decreased today. The import cost of US soybeans was 4544 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton from the previous day, reaching a more than three - week low. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans was 3904 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton, hitting a four - week low. The import cost of Argentine soybeans was 3774 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton, refreshing a more than three - week low. - As of the week ending August 27, Argentine farmers sold 656,300 tons of 2024/2025 soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales volume to 3,053,870 tons [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook - With the approaching US soybean harvest season and the uncertainty of US soybean export prospects, the overnight CBOT soybean futures continued to decline. Domestically, the high crushing volume of imported soybeans and the situation where the production of soybean meal exceeds the demand of terminal enterprises weaken the oil mills' price - holding intention. The price of the m2601 contract is expected to mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Rubber Industry - The fundamentals of natural rubber (NR) have changed little. There is still cost support from the upstream, while downstream players are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The reference range for the 01 contract is 15,000 - 16,500. Follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas and whether the La Nina phenomenon affects the supply. If raw material supply is smooth, consider shorting at high levels; if not, the rubber price is expected to remain high [1]. Log Industry - Currently, the log market shows a volatile pattern. The spot market continues to weaken, and traders' import enthusiasm has declined. The arrival volume remains low, and it is expected that the supply in September will continue to be low. The inventory is low and has been decreasing for several weeks. Demand remains above 60,000 cubic meters but has not improved significantly. As it gradually enters the seasonal peak season, observe whether the shipment volume improves. The current valuation of the futures market is relatively low, and it is in a stage of exploring the bottom. In the context of the peak - season expectation game, the strategy suggests buying on dips [3]. Industrial Silicon Industry - From the cost side, raw material prices are rising, and the electricity price in the southwest region will gradually increase during the dry season, so the cost center of industrial silicon will rise in the future. Although the current output of industrial silicon has increased month - on - month, there are also news of capacity clearance, and small furnaces may be shut down. In terms of supply and demand, both supply and demand increased in August, maintaining a tight balance. If some capacity is cleared in the long term, the supply pressure will be reduced. Therefore, the strategy suggests buying on dips, but also note that while the output increases, the inventory and warehouse receipts are also increasing, and supply pressure is beginning to show. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [4]. Polysilicon Industry - In September, although there is production reduction on the supply side, there are also factories resuming production to make up for the supply, so the overall reduction in supply is not obvious. On the demand side, the silicon wafer production schedule has increased slightly month - on - month, and there may be a slight inventory accumulation pattern in September. The downstream has replenished inventory significantly since late August, and the spot price transmission mechanism is smooth. In the future, the futures market trades more on policy expectations rather than fundamentals, and short - term price fluctuations are likely to occur, so caution is needed [5]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry Soda Ash - The futures market lacks a main trading logic and shows a narrow - range volatile pattern. The fundamental oversupply problem still exists. Although the inventory did not accumulate this week, it has actually been transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory continues to rise. The previously reduced - production devices have resumed, and the weekly output has returned to a high level of 750,000 tons. In the medium term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream capacity, so the demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. After the traditional summer maintenance season in the soda ash industry ends, with high supply, if there is no actual capacity exit or load reduction, the inventory will be further pressured. The overall supply - demand pattern is still bearish, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [6]. Glass - The spot market had good transactions this week, and the inventory decreased. At the beginning of the week, news about the conversion of coal - fired gas production lines to clean energy in the Shahe area triggered a rise in the futures market, but the specific conversion time is undetermined, and the expected shutdown time is limited. There are still some restart and ignition plans in the future. Currently, the factory inventory in the Shahe area is gradually increasing, and the middle - stream inventory has not been significantly reduced. In terms of industry supply and demand, although the deep - processing orders have improved seasonally, they are still weak, and the low - emissivity (Low - E) glass production start - up rate remains low, showing no obvious peak - season characteristics. In the long - term, at the bottom of the real - estate cycle, the completion volume is shrinking, and the industry ultimately needs capacity clearance to solve the oversupply problem. Short - term, it is advisable to wait and see; in the medium - term, pay attention to the actual peak - season demand [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rubber Industry Spot Prices and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 1.00% to 14,900 yuan/ton on September 11 compared to September 10. The basis of some varieties changed, such as the basis of a certain variety decreasing by 8.06% [1]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 0.51%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 22.22%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.49% [1]. Fundamentals - In July, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, and India changed by 1.61%, 12.09%, and - 2.17% respectively, while China's production decreased by 1.30. The weekly start - up rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. The domestic tire production in July decreased by 8.16%, while the tire export volume increased by 10.51%. The total import volume of natural rubber in July increased by 2.47% [1]. Inventory Changes - The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.64%, while the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 1.99%. The出库 rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse and general - trade warehouse increased [1]. Log Industry Futures and Spot Prices - The 2511 log contract closed at 804.5 yuan/cubic meter on September 11, down 2 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. The prices of major benchmark delivery - grade spot logs remained unchanged. The new round of FOB quotes has loosened to the range of 114 US dollars/JAS cubic meter [3]. Supply - The port shipping volume decreased by 3.87%, and the number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased. The inventory in major ports decreased, with the national coniferous log inventory at 2.94 million cubic meters as of September 5 [3]. Demand - The daily average shipment volume decreased slightly last week but remained above 60,000 cubic meters, with the daily average shipment volume at 61,200 cubic meters as of September 5 [3]. Industrial Silicon Industry Spot Prices and Basis of the Main Contract - The prices of various types of industrial silicon, such as East China oxygen - passing S15530, East China SI4210, and Xinjiang 99 silicon, increased, and the basis of some varieties also increased [4]. Monthly Spreads - The spreads between different contracts changed significantly, such as the 2509 - 2510 spread decreasing by 5032.35% [4]. Fundamental Data - The national production of industrial silicon increased by 14.01%, and the production in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan also increased. The start - up rates in different regions increased. The production of organic silicon DMC increased, while the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. The export volume of industrial silicon increased by 8.32%. The inventory in different regions and the social inventory increased slightly [4]. Polysilicon Industry Spot Prices and Basis - The average prices of N - type polysilicon materials and silicon wafers remained mostly unchanged, but the N - type material basis decreased by 61.80% [5]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - The main contract price increased by 1.56%, and the spreads between different contracts changed, such as the current - month - to - first - continuous spread decreasing by 30.60% [5]. Fundamental Data - The weekly and monthly production of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased. The import and export volumes of polysilicon and silicon wafers also changed, with the net export volume of polysilicon decreasing and that of silicon wafers increasing [5]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.79%, while the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 1.78%. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 4.34% [5]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of glass in different regions and different contracts changed, with the 05 basis of glass decreasing by 10.92% [6]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of soda ash in different regions and different contracts increased slightly, while the 05 basis of soda ash decreased by 11.32% [6]. Supply - The soda ash start - up rate increased by 1.24%, the weekly production of soda ash increased by 1.25%, the float - glass daily melting volume increased by 0.38%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [6]. Inventory - The glass inventory decreased by 2.33%, the soda ash factory inventory decreased by 1.35%, and the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 2.70% [6]. Real - Estate Data - The year - on - year changes in new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate were 0.09%, - 2.43%, - 0.03%, and - 6.50% respectively [6].

Group 1: General Information - The reports cover multiple industries including oils & fats, meals, hogs, corn, cotton, eggs, and sugar, with data as of September 12, 2025 [1][3][6][8][11][13][17] Group 2: Industry-Specific Investment Ratings - There is no information provided on industry investment ratings in the given reports Group 3: Core Views Oils & Fats - For palm oil, closely monitor if the futures price can stabilize above 4,400 ringgit. A break below may open new downside. Domestically, short - term support is at 9,000 yuan. For soybean oil, the CBOT December contract may briefly fall below 50 cents if CBOT soybeans decline further. On the domestic front, downstream demand is increasing, but supply is still ample, and the January contract of Dalian soybean oil may trade in a narrow range before the USDA report [1] Meals - The downside for meal prices is limited. In the fourth quarter, domestic soybean supply is not abundant, and cost support for meals remains strong. The market awaits the USDA September supply - demand report, with expectations of a lower yield but high production [3] Hogs - Spot prices have limited downside as they are at a low level. Demand is slowly rising, but it's uncertain if it can absorb the supply. The market may see a short - term rebound but has potential for further decline due to large supply pressure [6] Corn - The market is divided regionally. In the short term, supply and demand are both weak, and the futures price is under pressure. In the medium term, it is expected to remain weak [8] Cotton - In the short term, domestic cotton prices may trade in a range. In the long term, they may face pressure when new cotton hits the market [11] Eggs - Egg prices may rebound in early September but with limited upside. A decline risk increases after the second and third rounds of restocking end [14] Sugar - Raw sugar supply pressure is high, and it is expected to remain weak. However, the upside for the sugar - ethanol ratio in Brazil is limited. The sugar market sentiment is weak, and prices are expected to fluctuate [17] Group 4: Industry - Specific Data Summaries Oils & Fats - **Soybean Oil**: Spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.35% to 8,540 yuan; futures price (Y2601) increased by 0.07% to 8,568 yuan; basis (Y2601) decreased by 11.69% to 272 yuan [1] - **Palm Oil**: Spot price in Guangdong decreased by 0.54% to 9,220 yuan; futures price (P2601) remained unchanged at 9,446 yuan; basis (P2601) decreased by 28.41% to - 226 yuan; import profit increased by 18.57% to - 195 yuan; warehouse receipts increased by 5.72% to 1,570 [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.30% to 9,940 yuan; futures price (OI601) increased by 0.87% to 10,023 yuan; basis (OI601) decreased by 207.41% to - 83 yuan [1] Meals - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3,030 yuan; futures price (M2601) increased by 0.72% to 3,088 yuan; basis (M2601) decreased by 61.11% to - 58 yuan; Brazilian October shipment crush margin increased by 47.2% to 53 yuan; warehouse receipts increased by 6.4% to 27,565 [3] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 2,630 yuan; futures price (RM2601) increased by 1.34% to 2,567 yuan; basis (RM2601) decreased by 35.05% to 63 yuan; Canadian November shipment crush margin increased by 2.68% to 881 yuan; warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 10,383 [3] Hogs - **Futures**: The price of Live Hog 2511 increased by 0.04% to 13,320 yuan; Live Hog 2601 decreased by 0.07% to 13,730 yuan; the 11 - 1 spread increased by 3.53% to - 410 yuan; the main contract's open interest increased by 0.31% to 75,953; warehouse receipts remained at 428 [6] - **Spot**: Prices in Henan decreased by 0.37% to 13,500 yuan; in Shandong remained at 13,500 yuan; in Sichuan remained at 13,350 yuan; in Liaoning remained at 13,100 yuan; in Guangdong remained at 14,290 yuan; in Hunan increased by 0.76% to 13,210 yuan; in Hebei decreased by 0.74% to 13,400 yuan [6] Corn - **Corn**: The price of Corn 2511 increased by 0.23% to 2,202 yuan; the basis decreased by 4.42% to 108 yuan; the 11 - 3 spread increased by 45.45% to 16 yuan; the south - north trade profit increased by 11.36% to 49 yuan; import profit increased by 0.20% to 504 yuan; the number of trucks at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning increased by 76.37% to 806; open interest increased by 0.84% to 1,581,422; warehouse receipts decreased by 0.16% to 51,874 [8] - **Corn Starch**: The price of Corn Starch 2511 decreased by 0.44% to 2,477 yuan; the basis increased by 15.28% to 83 yuan; the 11 - 3 spread decreased by 42.11% to - 27 yuan; the starch - corn spread decreased by 5.50% to 275 yuan; Shandong's processing profit increased by 48.78% to - 42 yuan; open interest increased by 4.83% to 295,207; warehouse receipts increased by 5.78% to 9,500 [8] Cotton - **Futures**: The price of Cotton 2605 decreased by 0.18% to 13,795 yuan; Cotton 2601 decreased by 0.14% to 13,835 yuan; the 5 - 1 spread decreased by 14.29% to - 40 yuan; the main contract's open interest decreased by 0.47% to 502,476; warehouse receipts decreased by 3.06% to 5,159 [11] - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 0.16% to 12,186 yuan; the CC Index 3128B decreased by 0.24% to 15,249 yuan; the FC Index M 1% increased by 0.26% to 13,353 yuan [11] Eggs - The price of the Egg 11 contract increased by 0.79% to 3,044 yuan; the Egg 10 contract increased by 0.79% to 3,043 yuan; the spot price in the production area increased by 0.94% to 3.47 yuan per catty; the basis increased by 1.78% to 426 yuan; the 11 - 10 spread remained unchanged at 1 [13] Sugar - **Futures**: The price of Sugar 2601 increased by 0.38%; Sugar 2605 increased by 0.31% to 5,524 yuan; the ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 0.57% to 15.80 cents per pound; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 14.29% to 32 yuan; the main contract's open interest increased by 0.62% to 391,605; warehouse receipts decreased by 0.28% to 11,739 [17] - **Spot**: The price in Nanning increased by 0.17% to 5,890 yuan; in Kunming increased by 0.26% to 5,850 yuan; the Nanning basis decreased by 1.88% to 366 yuan; the Kunming basis decreased by 0.61% to 326 yuan [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol port inventory continued to accumulate significantly this week. With the support of reverse flow, contract shipments, and terminal restocking, the pick - up at the mainstream storage areas along the river was good, but the inventory still increased under the supply replenishment. The import apparent demand is expected to be stable next week, and the port methanol inventory is expected to continue the accumulation rhythm, with the specific accumulation amplitude depending on the unloading speed of foreign vessels. The shutdown of the Qinghai Salt Lake olefin plant led to a decline in the domestic methanol - to - olefin operating rate. After the expected restart of Shenhua Xinjiang and the continued shutdown of the Qinghai Salt Lake olefin plant next week, the industry operating rate is expected to rise. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2360 - 2440 in the short term [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2387 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of methanol was - 3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest of methanol was 775,400 lots, an increase of 19,434 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of methanol was - 118,150 lots, a decrease of 9,662 lots. The number of warehouse receipts for methanol was 14,979, an increase of 460 [3] 现货市场 - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2275 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2122.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 152.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract was - 112 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 264 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 326 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton. The FOB price in Rotterdam was 295 euros/ton, a decrease of 2 euros/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 62 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.03 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.07 US dollars [3] Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 108.95 tons, an increase of 8.72 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 46.08 tons, an increase of 3.54 tons. The methanol import profit was 12.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.07 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 110.27 tons, a decrease of 11.75 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 342,600 tons, an increase of 1500 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises was 84.84%, unchanged [3] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 37.73%, a decrease of 4.31 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 4.83%, a decrease of 2.19 percentage points. The operating rate of acetic acid was 84.24%, a decrease of 1 percentage point; the operating rate of MTBE was 62.22%, a decrease of 1.32 percentage points. The operating rate of olefins was 84.72%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points; the methanol - to - olefin on - disk profit was - 1022 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan/ton [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 12.63%, a decrease of 1.14 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol was 18.07%, an increase of 0.11 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 15.57%, an increase of 0.27 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol was 15.57%, an increase of 0.27 percentage points [3] Industry News - As of September 10, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 34.26 tons, a decrease of 0.45 tons or 1.31% from the previous period; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 25.07 tons, an increase of 0.94 tons or 3.91% from the previous period. As of September 10, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 155.03 tons, an increase of 12.26 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China increased by 8.72 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 3.54 tons. As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 82.66%, a decrease of 3.16% from the previous period [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures slightly rose yesterday, with the spot market's negotiation atmosphere being average and the spot basis remaining stable. There were a small number of polyester factories making bids. In September, the transaction was at a discount of 60 - 65 to the 01 contract, and in October, the goods were traded at a discount of 45 to the 01 contract. The current mainstream spot basis is at 01 - 63. The PTA factory inventory is 3.9 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 days. The 20 - day moving average is upward, but the closing price is below it. The net short position of the main contract is decreasing. Recently, PTA maintenance and restart are happening simultaneously, the spot market's liquidity is okay, the spot basis is weakening, and the regional basis is differentiating. The PTA processing margin has been compressed to below 200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the results of the OPEC+ meeting this weekend and the changes in polyester upstream and downstream devices [5]. - MEG: On Wednesday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated within a narrow range, and the market negotiation was average. The spot was traded at a premium of 115 - 120 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. The overseas market of ethylene glycol was weak. The weekly ethylene glycol load dropped below 74%, and the domestic supply recovery is delayed. There are still maintenance plans for some devices in October. The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol from September to October has improved compared to expectations. The available spot of ethylene glycol will continue to be tight, and the spot basis will remain strong. Attention should be paid to polyester production and sales and device changes [6]. - Overall: The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere is still cautious. In the short term, the commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and for the upward rebound of the market, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant content provided 3.2 Daily Tips - PTA: The PTA futures slightly rose yesterday, with the spot market's negotiation atmosphere being average and the spot basis remaining stable. The PTA factory inventory increased slightly, and the net short position of the main contract decreased. The processing margin was compressed. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting and device changes [5]. - MEG: The price of ethylene glycol fluctuated within a narrow range on Wednesday, and the overseas market was weak. The weekly load dropped, and there are maintenance plans in October. The supply - demand structure has improved, and the spot basis will remain strong. Attention should be paid to polyester production and sales and device changes [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No relevant content provided 3.4 Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, export, total demand, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the year - on - year changes and supply - demand gaps [10]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, export, total demand, port inventory, and supply - demand differences from January 2024 to December 2025, along with the year - on - year changes [11]. - Price Data: It includes the prices and price changes of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, polyester filaments, and polyester staple fibers on September 10, 2025, compared with September 9, 2025, as well as the basis and profit data [12]. 3.5 Other Data - There are also data on bottle - chip spot prices, production margins, capacity utilization rates, inventories, PTA basis, MEG inter - month spreads, MEG basis, spot spreads, inventory analysis, polyester upstream and downstream operating rates, PTA processing fees, MEG profits, and polyester fiber production margins from 2020 to 2025 [13][27][30][37][39][50][54][59][60]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply is short - term tight, demand is stable month - on - month. In a weak supply - demand environment, refinery inventories are rising steadily while social inventories are steadily decreasing. Asphalt lacks obvious drivers, and its spot price is expected to be weak. The crack spread is dominated by oil price fluctuations in the short term and bearish in the medium term. The operating range of the BU2511 contract is expected to be between 3350 and 3500 [8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Part 1: Related Data - **Futures Prices and Positions**: On September 10, 2025, prices of BU2511 (main contract), BU2512, BU2601, SC2510, and Brent first - line all increased, with increases of 0.88%, 0.77%, 0.87%, 0.70%, and 0.96% respectively. The main contract's position increased by 1.18%, trading volume increased by 33.77%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.46% [2] - **Basis and Monthly Spreads**: BU12 - 01 decreased by 11.54%, BU11 - 12 increased by 8.51%. The basis between Shandong, East China, and South China and the main contract decreased by 5.57%, 14.69%, and 22.93% respectively [2] - **Industrial Chain Spot Prices**: Shandong's market price increased by 0.28%, South China's decreased by 0.28%, and East China's remained unchanged. Prices of Shandong gasoline, diesel, and petroleum coke increased, the dilution asphalt discount remained unchanged, and the exchange - rate mid - price increased by 0.08% [2] - **Spread Profits**: Asphalt refinery profit decreased by 176.63%, refined - oil comprehensive profit decreased by 6.70%, BU - SC crack decreased by 0.34%, gasoline spot - Brent decreased by 3.00%, and diesel spot - Brent decreased by 4.27% [2] Part 2: Market Analysis - **Market Overview**: On September 10, the domestic asphalt market average price was 3789 yuan/ton, up 0.03% from the previous day. In North China, resources were tight and trader prices rose slightly; in Shandong, demand was stable and some refinery prices increased slightly; in East China, demand was tepid and prices were stable; in South China, demand was rising and some refinery prices increased [5][6] - **Price Forecast by Region**: In Shandong, with Dongming Petrochemical resuming production, the supply - demand pattern will be loose and prices may be stable. In the Yangtze River Delta, with increased planned production of some main refineries, prices are restricted. In South China, with some refinery maintenance plans, prices may trend upward in the short term [5][6] Part 3: Related Attachments - The report provides six figures including BU main - contract closing price, position, and market prices in different regions over the years, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and Wind or Steel Union [10]