Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a slight decline in lithium carbonate futures prices, with the main contract closing at 64,180 yuan/ton, down 0.43% from the previous settlement price [1] - On July 10, 2025, the trading volume for lithium carbonate futures was 398,022 contracts, with an open interest of 323,683 contracts, reflecting a decrease of 3,212 contracts from the previous day [1] - The spot market for lithium carbonate showed a slight increase in prices, with battery-grade lithium carbonate quoted at 62,600 - 64,700 yuan/ton, and industrial-grade at 61,550 - 62,550 yuan/ton, both up by 350 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - Inventory levels increased by 2,446 tons to 140,800 tons, primarily due to rising stocks in other segments [1] - Weekly production rose by 609 tons to 18,800 tons, with increases in both spodumene and mica production [1] - The overall market sentiment remains strong despite a weak fundamental outlook, suggesting a strategy of selling high for hedging purposes [1]

| | ル期現日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年7月11日 | | | 王涛庭 | Z0019938 | | 田和 | | | | | | | 7月10日 | 7月9日 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 江苏一级 8170 | 8170 | 0 | 0.00% | | 期价 | Y2509 7944 | 7920 | 24 | 0.30% | | 县差 | Y2509 226 | 250 | -24 | -9.60% | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏6月 09 + 210 | 09 +210 | 0 | - | | 仓单 | 22725 | 22826 | -101 | -0.44% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | 7月10日 | 7月9日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 广东24度 8670 | 8700 | -30 | -0.34% | | 期价 | P2509 8638 | 8678 | -40 | -0.46% | | 墓差 | P2509 32 | 22 | ...

现货供应压力仍存，豆粕价格震荡运行 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约2954元/吨，较前日变动+7元/吨，幅度+0.24%；菜粕2509合约2611元/吨，较前 日变动+25元/吨，幅度+0.97%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2860元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M09-94， 较前日变动+3；江苏地区豆粕现货2790元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M09-164，较前日变动+3；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2780元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M09-174，较前日变动-7。福建地区菜粕现货价格2610 元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差RM09-1，较前日变动-5。 近期市场资讯，特朗普近日在社交平台上表示，美国将自2025年8月1日起对文莱和摩尔多瓦的产品征收25%的关税， 对阿尔及利亚、伊拉克、利比亚及斯里兰卡的产品征收30%关税，对菲律宾的产品征收20%关税、对巴西的产品征 收50%关税。 市场分析 整体来看，近月到港维持千万吨级以上，油厂大豆和豆粕库存增加较快，预计在新季美豆上市之前，国内大豆都 将维持宽松的供应格局。新季美豆方面，由 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The domestic PP spot market had a partial small increase of 10 - 20 yuan/ton in the morning. Affected by the macro - atmosphere, the futures market rose with fluctuations, which boosted the spot market. Some producers raised factory prices, strengthening cost support. Traders slightly increased quotes, but downstream factories were reluctant to accept high - priced goods, resulting in flat overall transactions [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs PP Fundamental Data - **Futures Information**: The closing price of PP2509 yesterday was 7112, with a daily increase of 0.79%. The trading volume was 219,392, and the position changed by 123 [1]. - **Spread Information**: The basis of the 09 contract was - 92 yesterday (compared to - 58 the day before), and the spread between the 09 - 01 contracts was 23 yesterday (compared to 44 the day before) [1]. - **Important Spot Prices**: In the North China region, the price range was 7050 - 7150 yuan/ton yesterday (7000 - 7100 yuan/ton the day before); in the East China region, it was 7020 - 7180 yuan/ton yesterday (7020 - 7150 yuan/ton the day before); in the South China region, it was 7050 - 7220 yuan/ton yesterday (7040 - 7200 yuan/ton the day before) [1]. Spot News - The domestic PP local market had a partial small increase of 10 - 20 yuan/ton in the morning. The futures market's upward fluctuation due to the macro - atmosphere boosted the spot market. Producers' price hikes strengthened cost support, while traders' price increases faced resistance from downstream factories' low acceptance of high prices, leading to flat transactions [2]. Trend Intensity - The PP trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the short - term driving force is weak, and the price follows the cost fluctuation. In July, there are few maintenance plans, and the Sanfangxiang PTA device is expected to be put into production, increasing the supply. The terminal demand is in the off - season, and the polyester factory's inventory pressure is accumulating, with a downward expectation for polyester, which is negative for the PTA spot market [5]. - For MEG, the supply - demand structure is gradually changing, with an obvious inventory accumulation expectation in the third quarter. The willingness of traders to hold goods is poor. The supply - demand weakening and the polyester off - season put pressure on the MEG disk. The price will be mainly in the low - range consolidation in the short term [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant information provided 3.2 Daily Tips - **PTA**: The PTA futures rose slightly yesterday. The spot market negotiation was average, mainly by traders, with individual polyester factories making bids. The spot basis weakened rapidly and then stabilized. The expected supply increase and weak terminal demand are negative factors [5]. - **MEG**: On Wednesday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated narrowly. The spot basis was stable, and the external market was at a low level. The supply - demand structure is changing, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - **PTA**: Focus on the downstream polyester load fluctuation [5]. - **MEG**: Focus on the return efficiency of the supply side and the change of the cost side [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **PTA**: The PTA factory inventory is 3.95 days, a decrease of 0.14 days compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, but the closing price is below it. The main position is net short with an increase in short positions [5]. - **MEG**: The total inventory in the East China region is 53.20 tons, an increase of 2.73 tons compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below it. The main position is net short with an increase in short positions [6]. 3.5 Impact Factor Summary - **Likely Factors**: The PX operating rate remains at a relatively high level [8]. - **Negative Factors**: Iran confirmed a cease - fire, and the terminal demand is weakening due to the end of the rush - to - export period and the domestic demand off - season [9]. 3.6 Current Main Logic and Risk Points - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. There is still an inventory accumulation expectation at the raw material end. After the disk rebounds, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. 3.7 Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **PTA**: The supply - demand balance sheet shows the changes in PTA production capacity, output, import, export, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. - **MEG**: The supply - demand balance sheet shows the changes in MEG's total operating rate, output, import, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. 3.8 Price and Profit Data - **Price**: The prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers have changed on July 9, 2025, compared with July 8, 2025 [13]. - **Profit**: The processing fees and profits of PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers have also changed [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views Methanol - The inland methanol market has limited short - term downside due to July's concentrated maintenance. The port market faces dual pressures: expected 1.2 million tons of imports in July as Iranian plants resume production, and planned maintenance of coastal MTO reducing olefin demand. A slight inventory build - up is expected in July, with stronger price suppression. Risk of delayed shipping from Iran's low inventory should be watched [1]. Urea - Short - term price drivers are export demand and supply changes. Increased export demand and eased supply pressure support prices, while weakening agricultural and industrial demand limit price increases. Supply pressure is eased as daily production drops below 200,000 tons due to temporary maintenance. Agricultural demand will end soon, and industrial demand recovers slowly, so long positions should not be overly chased [7]. Crude Oil - Oil prices are in a strong - side oscillation due to the delayed US tariff policy and OPEC+ production increase. Demand suppression is mitigated, and the refinery operation rate is high due to tight diesel supply. Geopolitical risks exist, but no actual supply disruption has occurred. After the summer peak, prices will face pressure, and short - term trading should be range - bound [11]. Pure Benzene - Domestic plant maintenance reduces pure benzene load, but overseas load increases. Downstream demand has a slight rebound. Overall, weekly supply - demand improves marginally, but high port inventory and new production expectations limit price support. A cautious short or wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading, and a reverse spread strategy for month - spreads [33]. Styrene - Supply is expected to increase as some plant maintenance is postponed and previous maintenance units resume. Demand weakens as downstream losses increase and inventory rises. Port inventory is rising, and the market lacks buying support after paper - cargo delivery. Short - term supply - demand is weak, and prices are expected to decline. Short - term trading should be short - biased, and options should sell call options above 7500 for EB08 [34]. Polyester Industry - **PX**: Supply - demand tightness eases as PXN recovers, domestic maintenance is postponed, and overseas supply resumes. Oil price support is limited, but 7 - 8 month new PTA plant start - ups may keep supply tight. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term and decline in the medium - term [40]. - **PTA**: July maintenance is limited, new plants are stable, and downstream polyester may cut production. Supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the basis is falling. Oil and PX support prices in the short - term, but terminal feedback restricts price increases. Trade in the 4600 - 4900 range with a short - bias at the upper limit [40]. - **MEG**: Supply increases at home and abroad, with a balanced supply - demand in July and inventory build - up in 8 - 9 months. Domestic coal - based plants may restart, and imports are expected to rise. Terminal demand is weakening, so prices face pressure. Short - term trading should sell call options at 4400 for EG09 and use a reverse spread strategy for EG9 - 1 [40]. - **Short - fiber**: Both supply and demand are weak as plants may cut production in July, and downstream demand is poor. Processing fees are mainly restored by PTA basis changes, and prices follow raw materials. Expand processing fees at low levels and watch for production cuts [40]. - **Bottle - chip**: Supply may improve as some plants cut production in July, but high inventory exists. Processing fees are recovering, and prices follow costs. Trading strategies are similar to PTA, with a positive spread for PR8 - 9 and expanding processing fees at the lower limit [40]. Polyolefins - Both PP and PE have supply contractions. PP maintenance losses increase, and PE domestic maintenance peaks while imports are expected to be low. Cost - based valuations have recovered, and July balance sheets show inventory reduction, but overall pressure remains. Short - term support from inventory reduction can be watched, and mid - term short positions in PP can be established when prices reach 7200 - 7300 [44]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2509 prices decreased on July 8th. MA91 spread decreased, and the Taicang basis increased. Spot prices in various regions mostly declined, and some regional spreads changed [1]. - **Inventory**: Middle - sized methanol enterprises' inventory, port inventory, and social inventory all increased [1]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased, while some downstream operating rates like MTO and MTBE increased, and others like formaldehyde decreased [1]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Some futures contract prices increased on July 8th, and some spot prices remained stable or changed slightly [7]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: Daily and weekly production, inventory, and order days data showed various changes. Supply pressure eased, and demand had different trends in agriculture and industry [7]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices had different changes on July 9th. Spreads between different contracts and different oil types also changed [11]. - **Product Oil**: Product oil prices and spreads, as well as cracking spreads, showed various trends [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: Spot and futures prices, spreads, and inventory data changed. Domestic and overseas operating rates had different trends, and overall supply - demand had marginal changes [33]. - **Styrene**: Spot and futures prices, spreads, and inventory data changed. Supply is expected to increase, and demand weakens [34]. Polyester Industry - **Upstream Prices**: Crude oil, naphtha, and other upstream prices changed on July 8th [40]. - **PX**: PX prices, spreads, and operating rates changed. Supply - demand tightness eases [40]. - **PTA**: PTA prices, spreads, processing fees, and operating rates changed. Supply - demand is expected to weaken [40]. - **MEG**: MEG prices, spreads, inventory, and operating rates changed. Supply - demand is turning to surplus [40]. - **Polyester Products**: Prices and cash - flows of polyester products like POY, FDY, etc. changed, and operating rates of different polyester segments also changed [40]. Polyolefins - **Futures and Spot Prices**: LLDPE and PP futures and spot prices changed on July 8th, and some spreads and basis values also changed [44]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: PE and PP operating rates, inventory data, and downstream operating rates changed. Both show supply contractions [44].

Group 1: Market Analysis - On July 7, 2025, the main contract 2509 of lithium carbonate opened at 63,200 yuan/ton and closed at 63,660 yuan/ton, the same as the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 213,304 lots, and the open interest was 322,534 lots, a decrease of 2,754 lots from the previous trading day. The total open interest of all contracts was 591,177 lots, a decrease of 1,661 lots. The total trading volume of contracts decreased by 147,150 lots to 283,996, and the overall speculation degree was 0.48. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 15,555 lots, a decrease of 5,481 lots from the previous day [1] - The lithium carbonate futures showed a volatile pattern of "opening low - surging - falling back - recovering" and closed flat [1] Group 2: Spot Market - On July 7, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 61,700 - 63,400 yuan/ton, up 2,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 60,450 - 61,450 yuan/ton, also up 2,500 yuan/ton. The spot transaction price of lithium carbonate continued to oscillate upward [2] - Affected by the improved demand expectation in July, the spot price stopped falling and stabilized, showing a slight rebound. However, the output of lithium carbonate remained high, the market supply surplus pattern continued, and the industry inventory pressure still existed [2] Group 3: Strategy - Overall, the short - term supply - demand situation has improved to some extent, but the surplus pattern remains unchanged. Warehouse receipts are continuously flowing out after the July warehouse receipt cancellation, and there is some delivery game in the near - month contracts. Attention should be paid to the progress of new warehouse receipt registration [3] - For unilateral trading, short - term wait - and - see and sell - hedging on rallies are recommended. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]

今年（2025 年）的情况有所不同。首先，今年我们看到现货市场正在逐步扩 大，这对整体市场产生了新的影响。此外，不同地区新能源占比差异显著，例 如广东新能源发电占比约为 8%，而甘肃去年（2024 年）达到 35%，全国平 均水平也在 14%左右。今年一季度，全国新能源发电占比已达到 18%。这种 火电行业合理估值为 15 倍 PE，A 股约 10 倍，港股 6-8 倍，关注度较 低。现货和长协价格走势取决于供需关系，北方新能源高占比地区价格 见底可能性大，南方需观察新能源装机比例是否达临界点。 预计 2025 年夏季现货电价涨幅或超煤价，售电公司将根据现货价格决 策。电力需求紧张，用电量负荷同比增长超 10%，将加剧火电竞争，推 动火电价格上涨，行业盈利有望扩张。 差异导致各地现货和长协价格走势不一致。 电力下半年下跌规律有望终止 20250707 摘要 现货市场扩张及新能源占比区域差异显著影响电力定价。广东现货电价 具指引性，但各地区因新能源占比不同，现货和长协价格走势分化，甘 肃新能源发电占比远高于广东，影响火电竞争格局。 新能源发电加剧火电竞争，尤其在光伏高峰期，压低火电脱销价格。但 在风光受限时段， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the market is affected by multiple factors. In the US, the soybean situation is complex with increased inventory but lower - than - expected planting area. Domestically, the supply of rapeseed meal is affected by the increase in imported soybeans and the rise in oil - mill operating rates, while the demand is boosted by the aquaculture season but weakened by the substitution advantage of soybean meal. The price is expected to remain volatile in the short term [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the international market is influenced by factors such as the MPOB report, international biodiesel policies, and international oil prices. Domestically, it is in the off - season for consumption, with a loose supply and high inventory pressure. However, the decrease in oil - mill operating rates and the potential tightening of Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations may have an impact on the market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9548 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2579 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; ICE rapeseed is 719.1 Canadian dollars/ton, up 0.4 Canadian dollars; and rapeseed is 5058 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2]. - Spreads and positions: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is 56 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 264 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 19088 lots, down 5701 lots; for rapeseed meal, it is - 12451 lots, down 7960 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 805, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal is 15218, down 1014 [2]. 3.2现货市场 - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9750 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2500 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9782.5 yuan/ton, down 72.5 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed is 5148.66 yuan/ton, down 9.02 yuan [2]. - Price differences and ratios: The oil - meal ratio is 3.77, down 0.04. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 143 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is - 79 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1590 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1240 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 300 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons. The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 33.55 million tons, down 15.37 million tons. The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; that of rapeseed meal is 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operating rates: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 15 million tons, unchanged. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 11.46%, down 2.8% [2]. 3.4 Industrial Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 11.15 million tons, down 1.05 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.1 million tons, up 0.09 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 61.59 million tons, down 1.46 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory is 36.9 million tons, up 0.07 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 6.9 million tons, down 0.3 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 30.1 million tons, down 0.7 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 3 million tons, up 0.19 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 3.48 million tons, up 0.61 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production and consumption: The monthly production of feed is 2762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons. The monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons. The monthly social consumer retail sales of catering revenue is 4578.2 billion yuan, up 411.2 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied and historical volatilities: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 16.94%, down 1.59%; that of put options is 16.93%, down 1.6%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 14.43%, up 0.16%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 19.26%, down 0.87%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for rapeseed oil is 12.77%, up 0.52%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.1%, up 0.31%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.89%, down 0.03% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Canadian rapeseed futures: On Friday, Canadian rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) traded in a narrow range, with closing prices mixed. The 11 - month contract rose 0.2 Canadian dollars to 719.70 Canadian dollars/ton; the 1 - month contract was flat at 727.40 Canadian dollars/ton; the 3 - month contract fell 0.5 Canadian dollars to 732.90 Canadian dollars/ton [2]. - US soybean situation: As of June 1, the US soybean inventory was 1.008 billion bushels, a 4% increase from the same period last year, higher than the analyst's expectation of 980 million bushels. The US soybean planting area in 2025 is 83.38 million acres, lower than the March forecast of 83.5 million acres and the analyst's estimate of 93.655 million acres, a 4.2% decrease from the same period last year [2].

财达期货｜生猪、玉米周报 2025-07-07 财达期货｜生猪玉米周报 生猪价格涨幅明显，玉米盘面大幅下挫 研究员 姓名：田金莲 F3046737 投资咨询号： Z0015545 生猪 上周生猪期货震荡偏强，LH2509 合约报收 14305 元/吨，较前 周结算价上涨 2.25%。 从业资格号： 现货方面，全国外三元生猪市场价为 15.29 元/公斤，环比上 涨 0.76 元/公斤。利润方面，截至 7 月 4 日，自繁自养生猪养殖利 润为 119.72 元/头，环比增加 69.47 元/头；外购仔猪养殖利润为 -26.26 元/头，环比增加 105.45 元/头；猪粮比价为 6.23，周环比 增加 0.21。 财达期货｜生猪玉米周报 玉米 上周玉米期货偏弱运行，C2509 合约报收 2353 元/吨，较前周结算价下跌 1.05%。 上周全国生猪现货价格涨幅明显，并突破 15 元/公斤。月底月 初阶段集团厂出栏缩量明显，加之局部降雨天气影响，市场生猪实 际供应减少，屠宰企业收购难度增加，带动生猪价格持续上涨。目 前来看，养殖端多控量挺价操作，市场整体猪源供应较为有限，生 猪出栏节奏放缓，形成阶段性供应偏紧格局 ...