特朗普：美国准备实施新一轮强力关税。呼吁联合国与美国一道采取反俄石油措施。 ...

特朗普：美国准备实施新一轮强力关税。 ...

【导读】接下来如何降息，美联储有分歧 中国基金报记者 泰勒 对于接下来的降息，多位 美联储官员继续发布不同的信号。 美联储古尔斯比表示通胀决定降息，需谨慎推进 芝加哥联邦储备银行行长奥斯坦·古尔斯比表示，鉴于通胀高于目标且呈上行趋势，美联储在进一步降息方面应保持谨慎。 古尔斯比在接受采访时表示： "最终，只要我们能把这股'滞胀的尘埃'从空气中驱散，利率就可以以一种渐进的节奏大幅下行。但考虑到通 胀已连续四年半高于目标，而且还在上升，我认为我们需要对过于提前、过于激进的行动保持一点谨慎。" 美联储官员在上周的会议上将利率下调了25个基点，这是自去年12月以来首次降息。根据会后公布的预测中值，决策者预计今年还将再降 息两次，每次25个基点。 古尔斯比表示，目前的货币政策"略具限制性"。他补充说，芝加哥联储对劳动力市场的分析显示其目前保持稳定，尽管招聘放缓，但裁员 仍处于低位。 美联储鲍曼：需要采取果断行动来支持就业 鲍曼在一场活动的讲话稿中表示： "如今我们已经连续数月看到劳动力市场状况恶化，是时候让委员会果断且前瞻性地行动，来应对劳动力 市场活力下降和脆弱迹象的显现了。在我看来，近期的数据——包括对非农就业的基 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is initiating interest rate cuts, leading to a surge in global asset prices, with significant movements in both risk and safe-haven assets [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - Nvidia's substantial investment in OpenAI has reignited the AI boom, pushing the three major U.S. stock indices to new highs, with the S&P 500 index hitting its 28th record high this year [2]. - COMEX gold prices closed at $3,775.10, marking the 36th record high of the year, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 43% [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The simultaneous rise of risk and safe-haven assets has led to skepticism among investors regarding whether the market has reached "perfect pricing" [5]. - Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett suggests that the combination of tariff cuts, tax reductions, and interest rate cuts creates a "run-it-hot" policy environment, providing implicit guarantees for the economy and stock market [5]. - Deutsche Bank's report indicates that the market has not yet reached a "perfect pricing" state, suggesting that concerns about future risks may actually provide room for potential market increases [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Hartnett proposes a five-point trading strategy to navigate the current market conditions, including investing directly in bubble assets, constructing a "barbell" portfolio, shorting corporate bonds of bubble companies, shorting U.S. bonds, and trading volatility [10][11]. - The current market sentiment is characterized by a belief that "money is depreciating, and holding it is less favorable than consumption or investment," driving funds into risk assets [6]. Group 4: Gold Market Analysis - The rise in gold prices is attributed to geopolitical uncertainties, inflation concerns, and expectations of interest rate cuts, creating a "perfect storm" for gold [13][14]. - Deutsche Bank notes that the high gold prices reflect market fear rather than extreme optimism, indicating a typical sign of investors seeking safe-haven assets [13]. - Despite concerns about a potential bubble, key market indicators have not shown signs of irrational exuberance, suggesting that the current gold market may be in a sustained bull phase rather than a bubble [14][15].

Core Insights - The report reveals the investment sentiment and strategies of family offices in the context of trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and technological changes [1][2]. Group 1: Key Findings - Asset allocation among family offices remains stable, with half of the respondents maintaining fixed income holdings and two-thirds keeping real estate allocations unchanged. Private equity shows the most optimistic trend, with a net increase of 26% in allocations [5][6]. - Despite uncertainties surrounding tariffs, family offices express a positive outlook for portfolio returns over the next twelve months, with 30% expecting returns between 10%-15% and 8% anticipating returns exceeding 15% [8][9]. - Nearly two-thirds of family offices took action to enhance portfolio resilience following the U.S. tariff announcement, with 39% opting for active management [10][11]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Sentiment - 70% of respondents are engaged in direct investments, with 40% increasing their activities in the past year, reflecting confidence in selecting profitable transactions [13][14]. - Trade tensions have become the primary concern for family offices this year, with 60% citing it as their top worry, while interest rates have dropped to fourth place [15][16]. - Family offices report effective management of investment risks, with 83% believing their investment risks are well managed, although confidence in managing cybersecurity and geopolitical risks is lacking [18][19]. Group 3: Asset Allocation and Market Outlook - Family offices' asset allocation for 2025 remains consistent with 2024, with public equities averaging 27%, fixed income at 15%, and alternative assets at 40% [30][31]. - The sentiment towards asset classes is predominantly neutral, with developed market equities showing the highest net positive sentiment at +17% [44][45]. - Regional sentiment varies, with the Americas showing net bullish sentiment for private equity direct investments at +21%, while the Asia-Pacific region shows a much lower sentiment at +1% [48][49].

美国总统特朗普的前经济顾问加里·科恩（Gary Cohn） 表示，关税正推高企业经营成本，而这可能会让 人们找工作变得更难。 曾在特朗普第一任期内担任国家经济委员会主任的科恩称，受关税影响，企业正面临投入成本上升的不 确定性。而由于企业认为无法向消费者提价，它们便转向自己能控制的成本项。 "为确保利润率不受损，它们能拉动的唯一杠杆就是削减人力成本，"科恩在《面向全国》（Face the Nation）节目采访中表示。 白宫发言人库什·德赛（Kush Desai）此前则发表声明宣称，特朗普的关税已为美国带来万亿美元级投 资，推动国内建设并创造就业岗位。 上周美联储会议后，鲍威尔承认："大学毕业生、年轻人以及少数族裔群体正面临求职困境。"一名25岁 的求职者甚至在华尔街举牌求职，此前他已在线上投递了超过1000份简历。 科恩表示，这一趋势与新冠疫情期间形成鲜明反差——当时许多企业陷入"招聘狂热"。如今，这些企业 不仅裁员，还在员工退休后不再补招，任由劳动力自然缩减。 科恩说，"新冠疫情期间，企业曾面临招不到、留不住人的困境，因此当时它们在'囤积劳动力'，如今 情况已从'囤人'转向'严格控制开支'，而人力成本正是它 ...

Group 1 - Silver T+D is currently trading above 10,265, with a recent price of 10,305, reflecting a 1.72% increase, and has seen a high of 10,311 and a low of 10,168 during the session [1] - The silver T+D market is showing a short-term oscillating trend, indicating potential volatility in pricing [1][4] Group 2 - Federal Reserve officials have highlighted the potential impact of tariffs on inflation, with one official noting that while the immediate effects of tariffs on prices have been less than expected, other factors are contributing to rising inflation [3] - The officials suggest that the price effects of tariffs may dissipate in the next two to three quarters, but there is a need to remain vigilant about second-round effects and persistent inflation threats [3] - Another official indicated that the cost increases driven by tariffs have been milder than initially predicted, partly due to companies employing various strategies to mitigate or delay price increases to consumers [3]

这与白宫的表态截然不同。此前白宫发言人Kush Desai在一份声明中表示，特朗普总统的关税措施已导 致数万亿美元的投资在美国进行建设和雇用美国人。 "政府仍然专注于实施一整套供给侧增长政策，如减税、放松管制和丰富能源，以降低成本，恢复美国 人在特朗普总统第一个任期内所经历的经济活力。"声明称。 然而，科恩提到了今年的大型科技公司的"裁员浪潮"，其中包括微软和Meta。总体而言，根据layoff .fyi 的数据，仅今年一年，就有204家公司的近9万名科技员工被解雇。他指出，这些裁员已经开始影响经 济。 美国劳工统计局（Bureau of Labor Statistics）最近的就业数据显示，8月份新增就业岗位仅为2.2万个， 低于7月份的7.9万个。上周，美联储将利率下调了0.25个百分点，试图遏制这一趋势，提振经济。 自美国总统特朗普上任、不断乱挥"关税大棒"以来，来自政界、商界以及经济学家、学者的警告声也此 起彼伏。最新的警告来自"特朗普1.0"时期的经济顾问加里·科恩（Gary Cohn）。 科恩最接受最新采访时表示，关税正在提高做生意的成本，这可能会让美国人找工作更难。他解释称， 由于关税，企业感受 ...

Core Insights - Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as the greatest investment opportunity of the current era, with a strong emphasis on the urgent need for energy to support its growth [1][2][3] - A specific company is highlighted as a key player in the AI energy sector, owning critical energy infrastructure assets that are essential for meeting the increasing energy demands of AI technologies [3][7][8] Investment Landscape - Wall Street is investing hundreds of billions into AI, but there is a pressing concern regarding the energy supply needed to sustain this growth [2] - AI data centers, which power large language models like ChatGPT, consume energy equivalent to that of a small city, indicating a significant strain on global power grids [2] - The company in focus is positioned to benefit from the surge in demand for electricity driven by AI, making it a unique investment opportunity [3][6] Company Profile - The company is described as a "toll booth" operator in the AI energy boom, collecting fees from energy exports and benefiting from the onshoring trend due to tariffs [5][6] - It possesses critical nuclear energy infrastructure assets, making it integral to America's future power strategy [7] - The company is noted for its capability to execute large-scale engineering, procurement, and construction projects across various energy sectors, including oil, gas, and renewables [7] Financial Position - The company is completely debt-free and has a significant cash reserve, amounting to nearly one-third of its market capitalization, which positions it favorably compared to other energy firms burdened with debt [8][10] - It also holds a substantial equity stake in another AI-related company, providing investors with indirect exposure to multiple growth opportunities in the AI sector [9] Market Sentiment - There is a growing interest from hedge funds in this company, which is considered undervalued and off-the-radar, trading at less than seven times earnings excluding cash and investments [10][9] - The company is recognized for delivering real cash flows and owning critical infrastructure, making it a compelling investment choice in the context of the AI and energy sectors [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The Atlanta Fed President Bostic expresses concerns about inflation and indicates he does not plan to support another rate cut in October, despite rising employment risks [2][3]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - Bostic has only planned one rate cut for the entire year of 2025, suggesting no further cuts are needed in the remaining meetings of 2023 [2]. - He acknowledges that the balance of risks has shifted, with employment concerns and inflation being more equal than three months ago [3]. Inflation Concerns - Bostic worries that inflation remains persistently above the Fed's 2% target, with core inflation projected to rise from 2.9% in July to 3.1% by year-end [5]. - He anticipates that inflation may not return to the 2% target until 2028 [5]. Labor Market Dynamics - Bostic believes the current labor market is not in crisis, but the extent of its weakness is still uncertain [5]. - He estimates that limited labor supply accounts for about one-third of the recent slowdown in hiring, with immigration policies potentially exacerbating these challenges [6][7]. Tariff Impact - The impact of tariffs on consumer prices is still unclear, as companies have adopted various strategies to mitigate cost increases [5]. - Bostic notes that the cost increases from tariffs have been more moderate than initially expected, but these buffers may deplete in the coming months, leading to prolonged moderate price pressures [5].