1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although geopolitical premiums have dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy, but wait for OPEC's export decline when prices fall for validation. Currently, it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Regarding methanol, the current valuation is low, and its outlook for the coming year is marginally improving with limited downside. Despite short - term negative pressures, due to recent geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [4]. - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price differences has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are approaching. So, it is advisable to short on rallies [6]. - In the case of rubber, with a good overall upward atmosphere in commodities but weak seasonality, adopt a neutral approach, trade short - term according to the market, and enter and exit quickly. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, consider a short - selling strategy. Partially build a position for buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13]. - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is supply - strong and demand - weak, with poor fundamentals. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, pre - export rush, and strong commodity sentiment support it, but in the medium term, before significant production cuts in the industry, the strategy is to short on rallies [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is currently at a relatively high neutral level, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. As the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly restored, it is advisable to gradually take profits [20]. - Regarding polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and crude oil prices may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene is rising, but the PE valuation still has downward space. In the seasonal off - peak season, the demand - side overall operating rate is oscillating downward [23]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high overall inventory pressure, in the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction. In the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - led downward trends to production - mismatch issues. It is advisable to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [26]. - For PX, currently maintaining a high load with many downstream PTA maintenance activities, it is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. After the Spring Festival, the supply - demand structure with downstream PTA is strong, and there are medium - term opportunities to follow crude oil and buy on dips [29]. - Regarding PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. In the short - term, beware of the risk of processing fee corrections, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Pay attention to medium - term opportunities to buy on dips [32]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still relatively high, and the port inventory - accumulation cycle will continue. In the medium - term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction, and the valuation needs to be compressed without further domestic production cuts [34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 4.40 yuan/barrel, a 0.99% decline, at 441.90 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil closed up 54.00 yuan/ton, a 2.09% increase, at 2643.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 9.00 yuan/ton, a 0.29% decline, at 3116.00 yuan/ton. US EIA weekly data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.60 million barrels to 426.05 million barrels, a 0.85% increase; SPR replenished 0.81 million barrels to 414.48 million barrels, a 0.19% increase; gasoline inventories increased by 5.98 million barrels to 256.99 million barrels, a 2.38% increase; diesel inventories increased by 3.35 million barrels to 132.59 million barrels, a 2.59% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.59 million barrels to 24.13 million barrels, a 2.37% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.79 million barrels to 42.35 million barrels, a 1.83% decrease [1][2][7]. - **Strategy View**: Although geopolitical premiums have dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy, but currently, wait for OPEC's export decline when prices fall for validation. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Methanol - **Market Information**: No specific market price information provided. - **Strategy View**: The current valuation is low, and its outlook for the coming year is marginally improving with limited downside. Despite short - term negative pressures, due to recent geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, and Northeast China remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 48 yuan/ton. The main futures contract increased by 12 yuan/ton, reporting 1788 yuan/ton [5]. - **Strategy View**: The current situation of internal - external price differences has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are approaching. So, it is advisable to short on rallies [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Commodities and chemicals as a whole rose, and rubber prices rebounded oscillating. Butadiene drove up rubber and butadiene rubber prices. The reasons for the sharp rise in butadiene rubber may be large - scale allocation of chemical long positions by macro funds, expected increase in naphtha and butadiene costs due to naphtha consumption tax policies leading to subsequent production cut expectations, and increased marginal exports of butadiene due to spot demand in South Korea, with the butadiene inventory in East China ports dropping significantly from 44,600 tons to 34,500 tons. The long - side of natural rubber RU believes that rubber production in Southeast Asia may be limited, rubber prices usually rise in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve; the short - side believes that macro expectations are uncertain, supply is increasing, and demand is in the seasonal off - peak season. As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.84%, up 2.30 percentage points from last week and 2.78 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 74.35%, up 6.35 percentage points from last week but down 4.09 percentage points from the same period last year. As of January 11, 2026, China's total social inventory of natural rubber was 1.256 million tons, a 1.9% increase from the previous period. Among them, the inventory of dark - colored rubber increased by 2.5% to 835,000 tons, and the inventory of light - colored rubber increased by 0.8% to 421,000 tons. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 563,900 (+19,600) tons. In the spot market, Thai standard mixed rubber was at 15,200 (+300) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1,930 (+40) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1,930 (+40) US dollars, butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 10,600 (+800) yuan, and cis - polybutadiene in North China was 12,100 (+600) yuan [10][11][12]. - **Strategy View**: With a good overall upward atmosphere in commodities but weak seasonality, adopt a neutral approach, trade short - term according to the market, and enter and exit quickly. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, consider a short - selling strategy. Partially build a position for buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 72 yuan, reporting 4921 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4650 (+80) yuan/ton, the basis was - 271 (+8) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 111 (+3) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide price in Wuhai was reported at 2500 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 820 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 710 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 622 (0) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.7%, a 0.9% decline from the previous period; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80%, unchanged from the previous period, and the ethylene method was 75.7%, a 3.1% decline from the previous period. The overall downstream operating rate was 44.9%, a 1% increase from the previous period. The in - plant inventory was 308,000 tons (- 3,000), and the social inventory was 1.178 million tons (+33,000) [15]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply - demand situation is supply - strong and demand - weak, with poor fundamentals. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, pre - export rush, and strong commodity sentiment support it, but in the medium term, before significant production cuts in the industry, the strategy is to short on rallies [17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, the cost - side price of pure benzene in East China was 5930 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 6056 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 126 yuan/ton, a reduction of 41 yuan/ton. In the spot - futures market, the spot price of styrene was 7700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7708 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton; the basis was - 8 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 86 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 185 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.5 yuan/ton; the non - integrated EB device profit was 117.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.85 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a reduction of 19 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the upstream operating rate was 69.63%, a 1.23% decline; the inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.71 million tons to 93,500 tons. On the demand side, the weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.40%, a 0.49% increase; the PS operating rate was 57.30%, a 0.10% decline, the EPS operating rate was 58.71%, a 4.65% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 66.80%, a 3.00% decline [19]. - **Strategy View**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is currently at a relatively high neutral level, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. As the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly restored, it is advisable to gradually take profits [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6865 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6775 yuan/ton, an increase of 135 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 90 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 84 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, a 1.23% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 45,100 tons to 350,300 tons, and the inventory of traders remained unchanged at 29,200 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 41.1%, a 0.11% decline. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 22 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan increase from the previous period [22]. - **Strategy View**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and crude oil prices may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene is rising, but the PE valuation still has downward space. In the seasonal off - peak season, the demand - side overall operating rate is oscillating downward [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6656 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6575 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 81 yuan/ton, a weakening of 17 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, a 0.01% decline. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 36,700 tons to 431,000 tons, the inventory of traders decreased by 10,800 tons to 193,900 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 500 tons to 70,600 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 52.58%, a 0.02% decline. The LL - PP spread was 209 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan increase from the previous period. The PP5 - 9 spread was - 32 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan reduction from the previous period [24][25]. - **Strategy View**: In the context of weak supply and demand with high overall inventory pressure, in the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction. In the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - led downward trends to production - mismatch issues. It is advisable to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 118 yuan, reporting 7508 yuan, the PX CFR increased by 16 US dollars, reporting 923 US dollars. After conversion according to the central parity rate of the RMB, the basis was - 69 yuan (+1), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 118 yuan (- 40). The PX operating rate in China was 88.9%, a 0.5% decline from the previous period; the Asian operating rate was 81%, a 0.4% increase from the previous period. Domestically, Zhejiang Petrochemical further reduced its load, and overseas, the South Korean GS device restarted. The PTA operating rate was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period. In terms of imports, South Korea's PX exports to China in the first and middle ten - days of January were 215,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,000 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of November was 4.46 million tons, a 60,000 - ton increase from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, the PXN was 340 US dollars (+10), the South Korean PX - MX was 146 US dollars (0), and the naphtha crack spread was 100 US dollars (+15) [28]. - **Strategy View**: Currently maintaining a high load with many downstream PTA maintenance activities, it is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. After the Spring Festival, the supply - demand structure with downstream PTA is strong, and there are medium - term opportunities to follow crude oil and buy on dips [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 150 yuan, reporting 5448 yuan, the East China spot price increased by 130 yuan, reporting 5285 yuan, the basis was - 78 yuan (- 7), and the 5 - 9 spread was 40 yuan (+6). The PTA operating rate was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period. The downstream operating rate was 86.4%, a 1.9% decline from the previous period. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 4% to 66%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 6% to 49%. In terms of inventory, on January 16, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.045 million tons, a 40

Market Overview - Recent crude oil prices have shown a strong fluctuation, with Brent crude futures settling at $65.88 per barrel, up $1.75 (+2.73%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures rose to $61.07 per barrel, an increase of $1.63 (+2.74%) [6][49][53] - The market remains tense due to geopolitical factors, including potential changes in Iran and ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, alongside the U.S. military presence in the Middle East [5][48][55] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The latest EIA data indicates a weekly crude oil inventory increase of 3.602 million barrels, with gasoline inventories rising by 5.977 million barrels, both exceeding expectations [6][49][73] - Despite a slight reduction in production, overall demand appears weak, suggesting a continued trend of inventory accumulation [6][49][73] Geopolitical Influences - The U.S. has increased military presence in the Middle East, raising concerns about potential military actions against Iran, which could impact oil prices significantly [5][55] - The upcoming "U.S.-Ukraine" trilateral talks are expected to influence geopolitical tensions and, consequently, crude oil prices in the near future [5][48] Market Sentiment - The recent Davos Forum highlighted significant geopolitical narratives, with discussions around U.S. inflation, energy policies, and international relations affecting market perceptions [9][52] - The divergence in market sentiment regarding U.S. actions towards Iran reflects uncertainty, with mixed signals from U.S. officials regarding military engagement [5][55] Refinery Operations - U.S. refinery utilization has decreased by 2.0% to 93.30%, remaining above historical averages, indicating stable operational conditions despite minor fluctuations [76] - The overall demand for refined products has shown mixed trends, with gasoline demand slightly declining due to seasonal adjustments and extreme weather conditions [76][78]

Group 1 - Finnish Prime Minister Orpo's visit to China marks the first visit by a Finnish leader since 2017, indicating a shift in the development path of China-EU relations and changes in the internal power structure of Europe [1] - The visit aims to enhance dialogue with Chinese leadership and promote Finnish business opportunities in China, with discussions on bilateral relations, EU-China relations, and international issues like the Ukraine crisis [2] - Finland is a significant trading partner for China, with bilateral trade expected to exceed $8 billion by 2025 and mutual investment stock surpassing $23 billion [3] Group 2 - The visit includes over 20 Finnish business executives from sectors such as machinery, forest industry, innovation, clean energy, and food, highlighting Finland's competitive advantages [2] - The geopolitical context, particularly the pressures from the US, is influencing Finland's strategy to strengthen ties with China, focusing on low-risk areas like green technology and climate-related projects [2][3] - Finland's historical relationship with China, being one of the first Western countries to recognize China and sign a government trade agreement, continues to deepen with ongoing practical cooperation [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - Germany is facing increasing pressure to repatriate a significant portion of its gold reserves from the United States due to concerns over the unpredictability of the Trump administration and changing transatlantic relations [1] Group 1: Gold Reserves Overview - Germany holds the second-largest national gold reserves globally, with approximately 1,236 metric tons valued at around $194 billion stored at the New York Federal Reserve Bank [1] - The total value of Germany's gold reserves is about $530 billion, with just over half stored at the Deutsche Bundesbank in Frankfurt, 37% in New York, and 12% in the Bank of England in London [1] Group 2: Calls for Repatriation - Emmanuel Mense, a prominent economist and former head of research at the Deutsche Bundesbank, advocates for repatriating gold to enhance Germany's strategic independence amid current geopolitical tensions [1] - Michael Yeager, president of the European Taxpayers Association, urges Berlin to act, citing Trump's unpredictable nature as a reason for the insecurity of gold stored at the Federal Reserve [1] Group 3: Political Discourse - The debate over gold repatriation has transcended its previous association with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party and has entered mainstream political discourse [1] - Katrin Becker, a spokesperson for the Green Party on finance, emphasizes that gold reserves are a crucial anchor of stability and trust, which should not be used as leverage in geopolitical disputes [1] Group 4: Expert Opinions - Not all experts agree on the repatriation of gold; Clemens Fuest, director of the Ifo Institute, warns that bringing back gold may only exacerbate the current situation [2] - The Merz coalition government has previously stated that it does not currently consider withdrawing gold reserves [3]

相关研究 证券分析师 2026 年 01 月 25 日 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 地缘紧张避险升温，金属价格强势 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20260119-20260123 本期投资提示： 有色金属 究 / 行 业 点 评 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 行业点评 1．一周行情回顾 据 iFind，总体看，环比上周，上证指数上涨 0.84%，深证成指上涨 1.11%，沪深 300 下跌 0.62%，有色金属（申万）指数上涨 6.03%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 6.65 个百分点； 20 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2026 年 01 月 25 日 地缘紧张此起彼伏 ——国际时政周评 回顾：格陵兰岛缓和；中美关系；俄乌美三方会谈。 未来一周：日本、泰国大选；伊朗局势；其他地缘。 魏芸 S1090522010002 weiyun@cmschina.com.cn 定期报告 ❑ 上周时政回顾： 1、格陵兰问题：特朗普表示不会以武力夺取格陵兰岛；称已就格陵兰岛制 定协议框架，不会对欧洲加征关税。地缘紧张与原油供给过剩预期相互 博弈，本周布伦特油价上涨 1.9%，关注后续地缘演绎。1）本周美欧双 方表态缓和，重回外交谈判，符合预期。客观而言，美方对格陵兰岛的 具体要求（扩大军事部署、获得当地资源品、排除外界国家影响力 等），完全可以通过补充现有协议的方式满足，并无一定需要格陵兰岛 主权的必要；欧洲方面也愿意满足这些要求。2）谈判或聚焦于补充 1951 年美国-丹麦协议。美方或希望：确保美国在制定军事计划时不受 任何限制；部署"金穹" 防御系统；明确排除外界国家在当地开展活 动；获得格陵兰岛矿产获取权。3）特朗普对格陵兰岛的主权要求仍是 后续博弈的风险点，欧洲的反击力度或仍有限。 2、中美关系与中欧关 ...

国泰君安期货·有色及贵金属 周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所·有色及贵金属团队 王 蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 王宗源 （联系人）从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 2026年01月25日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 1 06 铅：缺乏驱动，价格震荡 07 锡周报 铂金：交易重心成功上移，钯金：跟随上涨 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 2 CONTENTS 01 黄金：上调目标位至5500 白银：关注整数位压力 02 03 铜：美元回落和长期基本面向好，支撑价格持续偏强 铝：高位震荡，边际仍有偏向上动能 氧化铝：底部小盘整，仍持续持有高位空思路 04 铸造铝合金：价格高位震荡，下游逢低补库 05 锌：供应偏弱， ...

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2026年1月25日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 强弱分析：黄金偏强、白银偏强 黄金：上调目标位至5500；白银：关注整数位压力 价格区间：1050-1200元/克、25000-26000元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回升7.27%，伦敦银回升9.03%。金银比从前周的50.6回落至50.3，10年期TIPS回升至1.92%，10年期名义利率回落至4.24%（2 年期3.6%），美元指数录得97.5。 ◆ 本周地缘政治进一步升级，目前"亚伯拉罕·林肯"号航母及其打击群正在向波斯湾推进，其核心任务是制定针对伊朗的一揽子打击方案，等待 总统的最终批准。这表明美国对伊朗的强硬姿态并非仅仅停留在口头威胁，而已进入实质性的军事准备阶段。同 ...

Core Viewpoint - The visit of NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang to Shanghai's local market symbolizes the company's effort to stabilize its presence in the Chinese market amidst geopolitical challenges and market pressures [2][3]. Group 1: Policy Constraints - Huang's visit was characterized by a "silent" approach, avoiding media interactions and sensitive topics, reflecting NVIDIA's need to navigate U.S. export controls while maintaining a commitment to the Chinese market [3]. - The choice of a casual market visit over formal business announcements indicates NVIDIA's strategy to convey its dedication to Chinese employees and partners despite political tensions [3]. Group 2: Market Challenges - NVIDIA faces the challenge of convincing Chinese clients to accept "customized" products with reduced performance due to U.S. sanctions, transforming the company from a market leader to a salesperson needing to persuade clients [4]. - The competition from local AI chip companies, accelerated by U.S. sanctions, raises questions about whether Chinese cloud computing and AI firms will invest in NVIDIA's less-than-optimal solutions [4]. Group 3: Competitive Logic - NVIDIA's long-term success is threatened as Chinese companies begin to explore alternatives to its CUDA software ecosystem, which has been a key competitive advantage [5]. - Huang's visit aims to strengthen emotional connections with the Chinese market, emphasizing the importance of balancing global strategies with local engagement in a politically charged environment [5].

斯特拉克-齐默尔曼指出，这种做法在冷战时期是合理的，但已不再适应当今的地缘政治环境。她强 调，单纯依赖对跨大西洋伙伴的信任，无法替代经济和安全政策层面的国家主权。 与此同时，德国央行前研究部门负责人Emanuel Mönch也表示："鉴于当前的地缘政治局势，将如此大 规模的黄金储存在美国，似乎存在风险。为了在战略上减少对美国的依赖，德国央行应当认真考虑启动 黄金回迁行动。" 德国绿党的发言人Katharina Beck也提出了类似的主张。她表示，黄金储备是"重要的稳定与信任锚"， 绝不能沦为地缘政治博弈的筹码。在特朗普继续担任美国总统的情况下，若想最大限度排除这种风 险，"最安全的方式，恐怕就是从现在起将黄金储存在德国境内"。 据CCTV国际时讯援引德国媒体1月23日报道，德国议员施特拉克-齐默尔曼呼吁德国联邦政府将存放在 美国的黄金储备撤回德国。她表示，在全球不确定性加剧且美国政策难以预测的当下，将德国约37%的 黄金储备存放于纽约的做法已不再合理。 自动播放 德国央行目前在纽约联储存放着1236吨黄金，按当前价格计算价值约1980亿美元。数十年来，德国一直 将相当一部分黄金储备存放在海外，这一安排源于历史 ...