Group 1 - Finnish Prime Minister Orpo's visit to China marks the first visit by a Finnish leader since 2017, indicating a shift in the development path of China-EU relations and changes in the internal power structure of Europe [1] - The visit aims to enhance dialogue with Chinese leadership and promote Finnish business opportunities in China, with discussions on bilateral relations, EU-China relations, and international issues like the Ukraine crisis [2] - Finland is a significant trading partner for China, with bilateral trade expected to exceed $8 billion by 2025 and mutual investment stock surpassing $23 billion [3] Group 2 - The visit includes over 20 Finnish business executives from sectors such as machinery, forest industry, innovation, clean energy, and food, highlighting Finland's competitive advantages [2] - The geopolitical context, particularly the pressures from the US, is influencing Finland's strategy to strengthen ties with China, focusing on low-risk areas like green technology and climate-related projects [2][3] - Finland's historical relationship with China, being one of the first Western countries to recognize China and sign a government trade agreement, continues to deepen with ongoing practical cooperation [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - Germany is facing increasing pressure to repatriate a significant portion of its gold reserves from the United States due to concerns over the unpredictability of the Trump administration and changing transatlantic relations [1] Group 1: Gold Reserves Overview - Germany holds the second-largest national gold reserves globally, with approximately 1,236 metric tons valued at around $194 billion stored at the New York Federal Reserve Bank [1] - The total value of Germany's gold reserves is about $530 billion, with just over half stored at the Deutsche Bundesbank in Frankfurt, 37% in New York, and 12% in the Bank of England in London [1] Group 2: Calls for Repatriation - Emmanuel Mense, a prominent economist and former head of research at the Deutsche Bundesbank, advocates for repatriating gold to enhance Germany's strategic independence amid current geopolitical tensions [1] - Michael Yeager, president of the European Taxpayers Association, urges Berlin to act, citing Trump's unpredictable nature as a reason for the insecurity of gold stored at the Federal Reserve [1] Group 3: Political Discourse - The debate over gold repatriation has transcended its previous association with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party and has entered mainstream political discourse [1] - Katrin Becker, a spokesperson for the Green Party on finance, emphasizes that gold reserves are a crucial anchor of stability and trust, which should not be used as leverage in geopolitical disputes [1] Group 4: Expert Opinions - Not all experts agree on the repatriation of gold; Clemens Fuest, director of the Ifo Institute, warns that bringing back gold may only exacerbate the current situation [2] - The Merz coalition government has previously stated that it does not currently consider withdrawing gold reserves [3]

相关研究 证券分析师 2026 年 01 月 25 日 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 地缘紧张避险升温，金属价格强势 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20260119-20260123 本期投资提示： 有色金属 究 / 行 业 点 评 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 行业点评 1．一周行情回顾 据 iFind，总体看，环比上周，上证指数上涨 0.84%，深证成指上涨 1.11%，沪深 300 下跌 0.62%，有色金属（申万）指数上涨 6.03%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 6.65 个百分点； 20 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2026 年 01 月 25 日 地缘紧张此起彼伏 ——国际时政周评 回顾：格陵兰岛缓和；中美关系；俄乌美三方会谈。 未来一周：日本、泰国大选；伊朗局势；其他地缘。 魏芸 S1090522010002 weiyun@cmschina.com.cn 定期报告 ❑ 上周时政回顾： 1、格陵兰问题：特朗普表示不会以武力夺取格陵兰岛；称已就格陵兰岛制 定协议框架，不会对欧洲加征关税。地缘紧张与原油供给过剩预期相互 博弈，本周布伦特油价上涨 1.9%，关注后续地缘演绎。1）本周美欧双 方表态缓和，重回外交谈判，符合预期。客观而言，美方对格陵兰岛的 具体要求（扩大军事部署、获得当地资源品、排除外界国家影响力 等），完全可以通过补充现有协议的方式满足，并无一定需要格陵兰岛 主权的必要；欧洲方面也愿意满足这些要求。2）谈判或聚焦于补充 1951 年美国-丹麦协议。美方或希望：确保美国在制定军事计划时不受 任何限制；部署"金穹" 防御系统；明确排除外界国家在当地开展活 动；获得格陵兰岛矿产获取权。3）特朗普对格陵兰岛的主权要求仍是 后续博弈的风险点，欧洲的反击力度或仍有限。 2、中美关系与中欧关 ...

国泰君安期货·有色及贵金属 周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所·有色及贵金属团队 王 蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 王宗源 （联系人）从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 2026年01月25日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 1 06 铅：缺乏驱动，价格震荡 07 锡周报 铂金：交易重心成功上移，钯金：跟随上涨 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 2 CONTENTS 01 黄金：上调目标位至5500 白银：关注整数位压力 02 03 铜：美元回落和长期基本面向好，支撑价格持续偏强 铝：高位震荡，边际仍有偏向上动能 氧化铝：底部小盘整，仍持续持有高位空思路 04 铸造铝合金：价格高位震荡，下游逢低补库 05 锌：供应偏弱， ...

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2026年1月25日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 强弱分析：黄金偏强、白银偏强 黄金：上调目标位至5500；白银：关注整数位压力 价格区间：1050-1200元/克、25000-26000元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回升7.27%，伦敦银回升9.03%。金银比从前周的50.6回落至50.3，10年期TIPS回升至1.92%，10年期名义利率回落至4.24%（2 年期3.6%），美元指数录得97.5。 ◆ 本周地缘政治进一步升级，目前"亚伯拉罕·林肯"号航母及其打击群正在向波斯湾推进，其核心任务是制定针对伊朗的一揽子打击方案，等待 总统的最终批准。这表明美国对伊朗的强硬姿态并非仅仅停留在口头威胁，而已进入实质性的军事准备阶段。同 ...

Core Viewpoint - The visit of NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang to Shanghai's local market symbolizes the company's effort to stabilize its presence in the Chinese market amidst geopolitical challenges and market pressures [2][3]. Group 1: Policy Constraints - Huang's visit was characterized by a "silent" approach, avoiding media interactions and sensitive topics, reflecting NVIDIA's need to navigate U.S. export controls while maintaining a commitment to the Chinese market [3]. - The choice of a casual market visit over formal business announcements indicates NVIDIA's strategy to convey its dedication to Chinese employees and partners despite political tensions [3]. Group 2: Market Challenges - NVIDIA faces the challenge of convincing Chinese clients to accept "customized" products with reduced performance due to U.S. sanctions, transforming the company from a market leader to a salesperson needing to persuade clients [4]. - The competition from local AI chip companies, accelerated by U.S. sanctions, raises questions about whether Chinese cloud computing and AI firms will invest in NVIDIA's less-than-optimal solutions [4]. Group 3: Competitive Logic - NVIDIA's long-term success is threatened as Chinese companies begin to explore alternatives to its CUDA software ecosystem, which has been a key competitive advantage [5]. - Huang's visit aims to strengthen emotional connections with the Chinese market, emphasizing the importance of balancing global strategies with local engagement in a politically charged environment [5].

斯特拉克-齐默尔曼指出，这种做法在冷战时期是合理的，但已不再适应当今的地缘政治环境。她强 调，单纯依赖对跨大西洋伙伴的信任，无法替代经济和安全政策层面的国家主权。 与此同时，德国央行前研究部门负责人Emanuel Mönch也表示："鉴于当前的地缘政治局势，将如此大 规模的黄金储存在美国，似乎存在风险。为了在战略上减少对美国的依赖，德国央行应当认真考虑启动 黄金回迁行动。" 德国绿党的发言人Katharina Beck也提出了类似的主张。她表示，黄金储备是"重要的稳定与信任锚"， 绝不能沦为地缘政治博弈的筹码。在特朗普继续担任美国总统的情况下，若想最大限度排除这种风 险，"最安全的方式，恐怕就是从现在起将黄金储存在德国境内"。 据CCTV国际时讯援引德国媒体1月23日报道，德国议员施特拉克-齐默尔曼呼吁德国联邦政府将存放在 美国的黄金储备撤回德国。她表示，在全球不确定性加剧且美国政策难以预测的当下，将德国约37%的 黄金储备存放于纽约的做法已不再合理。 自动播放 德国央行目前在纽约联储存放着1236吨黄金，按当前价格计算价值约1980亿美元。数十年来，德国一直 将相当一部分黄金储备存放在海外，这一安排源于历史 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - This week, crude oil fluctuated repeatedly following geopolitical situations. US inventories entered the inventory accumulation window, but refinery demand remained, and the fundamentals did not decline. - In terms of supply and demand changes, US commercial crude oil inventories increased, and Iraq in the Middle East stated it would increase exports. - At the macro - political level, the IMF raised its economic forecast, and the IEA also raised its crude oil demand forecast, expecting a global demand growth rate of 930,000 barrels per day in 2026, slightly higher than 850,000 barrels per day in 2025. Politically, the US - Iran relationship remained in a stalemate, and the US Energy Secretary said he would visit Venezuela in the coming weeks. - Satellite maps show that the Caribbean Islands (excluding Cuba) imported at least about 230,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude oil. Venezuela's oil has flowed back to Caribbean storage tanks for the first time in years, creating conditions for refineries in the US, Europe, and Asia to obtain heavy - sulfur crude oil. It is believed that with the US Energy Secretary's planned visit to Venezuela, Venezuela's production increase is in progress, with an expected step - by - step and slow growth. At the same time, it is judged that the internal unrest in Iran and the US - Iran relationship will enter a state of low - intensity frictions, and Iran's production capacity has passed the peak black - box test. Against the backdrop of one increase (Venezuela) and one shortfall (Iran), there is still a bottom for oil prices. From a medium - to - long - term perspective, it is still cost - effective to go long when the price is in the shale oil break - even range [15]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Assessment & Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: This week, crude oil fluctuated with geopolitical situations. US inventories entered the accumulation phase, but refinery demand remained, and fundamentals did not decline [15]. - **Supply - Demand Changes**: US commercial crude oil inventories increased, and Iraq planned to increase exports [15]. - **Macro - Political Situation**: The IMF raised the economic forecast, and the IEA raised the crude oil demand forecast. Politically, the US - Iran relationship was in a stalemate, and the US Energy Secretary planned to visit Venezuela [15]. - **View Summary**: Venezuela's production increase is in progress, and the US - Iran relationship will enter a state of low - intensity frictions. Oil prices have a bottom, and it is cost - effective to go long in the shale oil break - even range [15]. 2. Macro & Geopolitical - **Short - Term High - Frequency Macro Indicators**: Include the US ISM manufacturing PMI, the Citigroup G10 economic surprise index, the US 10 - year inflation expectation, and the US long - short - term spread, all related to WTI oil prices [44]. - **Medium - Term Macro Forecast Indicators**: Such as the euro - zone investment confidence index, the US investment confidence index, and GDP growth rate forecasts of major countries, which are related to oil consumption [48][49]. - **Geopolitical Indicators**: The Middle East geopolitical risk index and the high - frequency export statistics of sensitive oil - producing countries (Iran, Libya, Venezuela, and Russia) are related to WTI oil prices [55]. 3. Oil Product Spreads - **Forward Curve**: Analyzed the WTI crude oil forward curve, the near - far structure of various crude oils, and the M1/M4 month - spread of WTI crude oil [59]. - **Inter - Regional Spreads**: Studied the spreads between Brent/WTI, Brent/Dubai, INE/WTI, and MRBN/WTI [62]. - **Product Spreads**: Analyzed the forward curve of LGO diesel, the near - far structure of refined oils, and the spreads between RB/HO and LGO/RB [65][66]. - **Crack Spreads**: Examined the crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, Europe, and the US [72][75][78]. 4. Crude Oil Supply - **OPEC & OPEC+ Supply**: OPEC has a series of production policies, including production cuts and increases. The production and supply situations of OPEC 12 countries and OPEC+ major member countries are also presented [84][86]. - **US Supply**: The US has various policies and actions related to oil supply, such as changes in SPR funds, sanctions on other countries, and policies on oil well and rig operations [114][115]. - **Other Supply**: The production situations of Canada, Norway, Brazil, and China are included [123]. 5. Crude Oil Demand - **US Demand**: Covers refinery operations, direct and derived demands for crude oil, and micro - level demand indicators [129][134][146]. - **China Demand**: Includes direct and derived demands for crude oil, refinery operations, and micro - level demand indicators [151][156][164]. - **European Demand**: Analyzed refinery operations and direct and derived demands for crude oil [170][174]. - **Indian Demand**: Focused on refinery operations and direct and derived demands for crude oil [180]. - **Other Demand**: Such as the average daily speeds of different types of oil tankers and the oil transportation quality model [184][187]. 6. Crude Oil Inventory - **US Inventory**: Includes commercial crude oil inventory, inventory available days, and inventories in different regions, as well as gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and aviation kerosene inventories [194][196][198]. - **China Inventory**: Covers port inventories, gasoline, and diesel inventories [203][206][209]. - **European Inventory**: Analyzed the ARA inventory and the inventories of 16 European countries [214][219][222]. - **Singapore Inventory**: Includes gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil inventories [226]. - **Fujairah Inventory**: Covers gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil inventories [231]. - **Marine Inventory**: Analyzed the floating storage of refined oils and crude oil at sea [236][240][244]. 7. Meteorological Disasters - **Meteorological Disasters in Crude Oil Supply Areas**: Include storm models in the US Gulf of Mexico and the Middle East, as well as wildfire probability models in Canada and rainstorm & thunderstorm in the US Gulf of Mexico [249][255]. 8. Alternative Data - **Crude Oil Alternative Data**: Such as the in - transit supply of crude oil by sea, the crude oil transportation demand model, the shipping freight in the Arabian Sea, and the probability of the Hormuz Strait being blocked [261].

Core Insights - The 56th World Economic Forum annual meeting gathered nearly 3,000 leaders from politics, business, civil society, and academia to discuss the theme of "the spirit of dialogue" in a complex geopolitical context [1][3] - The meeting saw a record attendance of 400 high-level political leaders, including 65 heads of state and government, and aimed to foster open communication and consensus on pressing global challenges [1][3] - The forum emphasized the need for new collaborative mechanisms to address rising geopolitical tensions and the evolving social landscape, highlighting the importance of dialogue and cooperation [1][3] Group 1: Geopolitical and Economic Context - Geoeconomic confrontation has emerged as the primary global risk by 2026, necessitating the establishment of new collaborative frameworks [1][3] - Trust is identified as the fundamental cornerstone for deepening cooperation, with leaders warning of a crisis in trust affecting international institutions and global political dynamics [2][3] - The forum's report on geopolitical strength emphasizes the need for businesses to integrate geopolitical foresight into their operational models due to the current turbulent global landscape [2] Group 2: Innovation and Economic Growth - The latest report from the World Economic Forum provides real-time assessments of the global economic outlook, indicating resilience despite multiple challenges [5] - Discussions focused on removing market barriers, deepening integration, and expanding investment to enhance economic growth and security amid geopolitical pressures [5][6] - The forum announced initiatives aimed at retraining over 1 billion people globally, emphasizing the importance of skills development and job creation in response to technological advancements [9] Group 3: Technological Advancements and AI - AI and its supporting infrastructure have become central to development planning in both public and private sectors, with discussions on expanding technological inclusivity [6][12] - The forum highlighted the need for responsible and equitable deployment of AI technologies, balancing potential benefits with associated risks [13][16] - A new report on clean fuel investments predicts a rise from approximately $25 billion to over $100 billion annually by 2030, driven by demand and government targets [13] Group 4: Environmental Sustainability - The urgency of addressing climate crises was emphasized, with leaders warning of irreversible ecological consequences if critical climate thresholds are crossed [17][18] - A joint commitment by major manufacturing companies aims to unify sustainability data requirements to support small and medium enterprises in low-carbon transitions [17] - The forum's initiatives for 2026 will focus on protecting freshwater and marine ecosystems, with new partnerships and commitments to promote responsible actions [17]