展望资本市场，徐飞表示，下半年将延续高质量发展基调，"两创板"的改革正在密集落地，进一步增强 资本市场对科技创新和新质生产力发展的制度包容性、适应性，有助于更好发挥资本市场枢纽功能，推 动科技创新和产业创新融合发展。 本报讯(记者李雯珊)中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议。会议认为，我国经济运行稳中有进，高质量发 展取得新成效。今年上半年我国GDP同比增长5.3%，超过全年目标值，国民经济呈现稳中向好的态 势。关于下半年经济工作，会议强调保持政策连续性稳定性，并强调了增强灵活性预见性，更有效地为 实现经济社会发展目标服务。 徐飞认为，在扩大内需方面，会议强调要有效释放内需潜力，更好地释放内需潜力是当前经济发展的重 点工作之一，预计下半年在扩大商品消费和培育服务消费新增长点方面均会发力。在投资方面，根据此 次会议要求高质量推进"两重"项目建设，预计下半年"两重"项目建设加快或将带动固定资产投资增速稳 中有升。在产业发展方面，预计政策仍将多措并举加快培育新兴支柱产业与孵化未来产业，提升我国产 业的创新含量和在全球产业链中的核心地位，实现产业结构转型升级，增强经济增长新动能。 万联证券股份有限公司(以下简称"万联证券 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for the chemical sector is predominantly bearish, with soda ash futures experiencing a significant decline, reaching a low of 1249.00 yuan/ton and a drop of approximately 5.10% [1] - The current market sentiment for soda ash is influenced by macroeconomic factors, leading to potential volatility in the short term, while the fundamental outlook remains bearish due to high supply and weak demand [1] - The industry is facing challenges such as increased supply, weak demand, and high inventory levels, which are unlikely to improve in the short term, suggesting a likely medium to long-term price fluctuation [2] Group 2 - The soda ash market is affected by ongoing production costs, with expectations of a decrease in costs by the end of 2024, while raw salt and thermal coal prices remain high, providing some support near the cost line [2] - The supply side is characterized by narrow fluctuations, with ongoing maintenance expected to impact production, while the demand for heavy soda ash is decreasing due to losses in the photovoltaic glass sector [1][2] - The market requires close monitoring of raw material price fluctuations and the implementation of policies aimed at eliminating outdated production capacity, which will affect supply adjustments and inventory digestion [1]

Group 1 - The report highlights that China's economy is showing steady progress with a GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, surpassing the annual target [4][5] - The meeting emphasized the need for continuous and stable macro policies, focusing on the effective implementation of existing policies to support economic development [4][5] - There is a strong emphasis on expanding domestic demand, with initiatives to boost consumption and high-quality investment in key projects [4][5] Group 2 - The report indicates a commitment to technological innovation as a driver for new productive forces, aiming to enhance the core position of China's industries in the global supply chain [4][5] - The governance of market competition is highlighted, with a focus on regulating disorderly competition and managing capacity in key industries [5] - The report suggests that the capital market will maintain a positive trend, with reforms aimed at enhancing its attractiveness and inclusivity [5]

Economic Assessment - The meeting acknowledged the achievements of the first half of 2025, stating that "high-quality development has made new progress" and "major economic indicators performed well" [2] - Compared to the April meeting, the phrase "external shocks have increased" was removed, reflecting a more optimistic outlook due to positive signals from US-China trade negotiations and resilient exports [2] Macro Policy Direction - The meeting emphasized that "macroeconomic policies should continue to exert force and increase strength as appropriate," indicating a shift from the previous urgency for more aggressive policies [2] - The focus has shifted from "making good use of policies" to "implementing and refining policies," suggesting recognition of the current fiscal and monetary policy effectiveness [2] - The meeting reiterated the importance of "supporting major economic provinces to play a leading role" [2] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The meeting stressed the need to "effectively release domestic demand potential" and proposed "in-depth implementation of special actions to boost consumption" [2] - A total of 2.49 billion yuan in special treasury bonds has been allocated to support consumption upgrades this year, with 690 million yuan remaining to be distributed in October [2] Industry and Innovation Policies - The focus has shifted from emphasizing new productive forces and technological innovation to "governing disorderly competition among enterprises" and "regulating local investment attraction behavior" [2] - The meeting highlighted the importance of "employment-first policy orientation," particularly concerning capacity governance and employment issues [2] Risk Prevention - In the real estate sector, the meeting only mentioned "high-quality urban renewal," omitting previous discussions on new real estate development models and market stabilization [2] - The emphasis on "strictly prohibiting new hidden debts" and effectively advancing the cleanup of local financing platforms was reiterated [2]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting on July 30, 2025, set a positive tone for the economy, with a projected GDP growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of 2025, easing the difficulty of achieving the annual growth target of 5% [4][14] - The meeting emphasized the need for continuous and timely macroeconomic policy support, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations to promote domestic and international dual circulation [4][14] - The report suggests that macroeconomic policies will prioritize the implementation of existing fiscal measures and enhance the efficiency of fund utilization, particularly through government bond issuance [4][14] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining ample liquidity in monetary policy to lower the comprehensive financing costs for society, utilizing various structural monetary policy tools to support technology innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilize foreign trade [5][14] - It is anticipated that there will be room for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the second half of the year, given the current weak price trends and the need to boost domestic demand [5][14] Group 3: Consumption and Investment - In terms of consumption, the report noted a 5% year-on-year increase in retail sales of consumer goods from January to June 2025, driven by policies promoting the replacement of old goods [8][14] - The meeting called for effective measures to unleash domestic demand potential and expand effective investment, particularly in the manufacturing sector, which saw a 7.5% year-on-year growth in the first half of 2025 [9][14] - Infrastructure investment is expected to increase, supporting economic stability and employment through project implementation [9][14] Group 4: Foreign Trade and Technology Innovation - The meeting emphasized the need to support foreign trade enterprises affected by external shocks, enhance financing support, and optimize export tax rebate policies [9][14] - It was also noted that technology innovation should lead the development of new productive forces, with a focus on cultivating internationally competitive emerging pillar industries [10][14] Group 5: Real Estate and Capital Markets - The report indicated that the real estate sector will focus on urban renewal as a new growth engine, with expectations for increased demand due to accelerated urban renewal and old community renovations [11][14] - The meeting stressed the importance of enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of domestic capital markets, with policies aimed at stabilizing and activating the market [12][14]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee on July 30 focused on analyzing the current economic situation and planning economic work for the second half of the year, addressing key issues such as macro policy, internal demand, reform, and risk prevention [1] Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the need for macro policies to continue to exert force and to be adjusted appropriately to stimulate economic growth [1] - There is a strong focus on effectively releasing the potential of internal demand to drive economic recovery [1] - The commitment to deepen reforms without hesitation was reiterated, indicating a long-term strategy for economic development [1] Group 2 - The meeting highlighted the importance of continuously preventing and resolving risks in key areas, which is crucial for maintaining economic stability [1] - The implications of these discussions for the stock and bond markets were considered, suggesting potential shifts in investor behavior and market dynamics [1]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - In July 2025, China's manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from June[1] - The new orders index fell by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%, indicating a return to contraction territory[2] - The production index was at 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points, still in the expansion zone but affected by weak demand[2] Group 2: External and Internal Demand Factors - Weak external demand was reflected in the new export orders index, which dropped by 0.6 percentage points[2] - Domestic consumption growth has slowed, influenced by the real estate market adjustments and reduced effectiveness of previous growth-stimulating policies[2] - The service sector PMI was at 50.0%, down 0.1 percentage points, with tourism-related sectors performing well but overall service sector affected by real estate cooling[4] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The overall economic pressure is increasing, with manufacturing PMI indicating a downturn after two months of recovery[5] - The central political bureau meeting emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policy support in the second half of the year[5] - Potential policy measures may include interest rate cuts and increased fiscal spending to boost domestic demand and counteract external demand slowdown[5]

Group 1: Economic Growth and Policy Direction - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need to consolidate and expand the positive momentum of economic recovery, with GDP growing by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year [2] - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight in economic measures [3][4] - A series of important deployments were made, including the acceleration of government bond issuance and improving the efficiency of fund utilization [5] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Consumption - The meeting stressed the need to effectively release domestic demand potential, with final consumption expenditure contributing 52% to economic growth in the first half of the year [6][7] - It was noted that there is a need to implement special actions to boost consumption, particularly in the service sector, to address gaps in supply [8] - Expanding consumption demand is crucial for improving people's livelihoods and stabilizing employment, especially for vulnerable groups [9] Group 3: Investment and Infrastructure - Investment is identified as a key driver for expanding domestic demand, with a focus on high-quality promotion of "two重" construction to stimulate private investment [10] - The meeting underscored the importance of infrastructure investment as a support for economic growth and related industry chains [10] Group 4: Reform and Innovation - The meeting called for unwavering commitment to deepening reforms, particularly in technology innovation and market competition [11] - Emphasis was placed on fostering a healthy development of the private economy and optimizing the business environment to drive high-quality growth [11] Group 5: External Trade and Investment - The meeting highlighted the need to expand high-level opening up and stabilize the fundamentals of foreign trade and investment [12] - Support measures for foreign trade enterprises were discussed, including enhancing financing support and promoting integrated development of domestic and foreign trade [13] Group 6: Risk Management and Financial Stability - Continuous prevention and resolution of risks in key areas were emphasized to ensure stable economic development [14] - The meeting addressed the need for effective management of local government debt risks and enhancing the attractiveness of the domestic capital market [16] Group 7: Social Welfare and Employment - The meeting reiterated the importance of solidifying social welfare measures and ensuring that development benefits are equitably shared among the population [17] - Employment policies were prioritized, particularly for key groups such as recent graduates and migrant workers, to stabilize the labor market [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the positive evaluation of the current economic situation by the Political Bureau meeting, highlighting the need for continuous macroeconomic policy support and the importance of balancing economic recovery with structural adjustments [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The Political Bureau meeting assessed the economy as stable with positive indicators, while acknowledging ongoing risks and challenges, particularly from external environments and domestic structural issues [1][2][3]. - The meeting set the tone for the second half of the year, indicating a likely "timely increase" in policy support, with a focus on both short-term growth and long-term reforms [2][4]. Macroeconomic Policy - The meeting stressed the need for continuity, stability, flexibility, and foresight in macroeconomic policies, with an emphasis on "sustained efforts and timely increases" in fiscal and monetary policies [4][7][8]. - There is a shift in focus from "using well" to "implementing and refining" existing policies, indicating a more cautious approach to new stimulus measures [8][17]. Capital Market - The meeting highlighted the importance of enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, aiming to consolidate the positive momentum in the market [6][12][19]. - The capital market is expected to benefit from the overall economic stability and supportive policies, with a positive outlook for equity markets [10][14]. Structural Reforms - The meeting called for deepening the construction of a unified national market and improving market competition order, while also addressing issues of excessive competition and local government debt risks [5][11][20]. - There is a focus on promoting high-quality development and technological innovation, with an emphasis on nurturing new growth drivers [7][21]. Consumer and Investment Policies - The meeting underscored the need to expand consumption and stabilize investment, with a particular focus on service consumption as a new growth point [12][24]. - Policies will continue to support small and micro enterprises, stabilize foreign trade, and enhance the overall economic environment [22][24].

华西证券首席经济学家刘郁分析表示，此次会议重申了4月会议提出的四稳（稳就业、稳企业、稳市 场、稳预期），但未提 "增量储备政策"，会议提出"宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力"，接下来或是前 期已经确定的政策继续向前推进，而政策加力的前提是适时。考虑到上半年经济增长5.3%，意味着下 半年达到4.7%左右，即可完成全年目标，因而政策即刻加码的必要性较低。在经济面临下行压力等情 况下，政策也仍有适时加力的空间。 招商证券策略研究团队谈到，整体来看，本次会议表态积极，整体偏中长期部署，增量信息相对有限， 符合市场预期。这或主要缘于上半年GDP高增至5.3%，经济表现较好，后续完成增量目标的压力有 限。 首席热议下半年是否有降息空间 券商首席聚焦中央政治局会议。 7月30日中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。在多名券商首席看 来，"稳中有进""适时加力""落实落细""提振消费""治理无序竞争"等表述值得重点关注。 本次会议受到市场关注的另一大原因在于，会议决定10月召开二十届四中全会，研究制定国民经济和社 会发展第十五个五年规划（又称"十五五"规划），为新的五年发展擘画蓝图。 保持稳定性和连 ...