贵金属日报 2025-11-04 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 沪金跌 0.08 %，报 919.52 元/克，沪银跌 0.34 %，报 11350.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 4013.70 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 47.91 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.13%，美元指数报 99.87 ； 昨日美联储官员表态总体偏鸽派，同时美国制造业 pmi 的弱势加大市场降息预期，金银价格 短期具备支撑，但仍将处于震荡区间。 美联储理事库克在经历"解职风波"后首次就货币政策进行表态，总体基调偏鸽派，她认为 12 月份联储议息会议有可能进行降息，但届时的决定仍受到经济数据的影响。旧金山联储主席戴 利也表示支持降息，她认为劳动力市场疲软的现象正在加剧，牺牲数百万个就业岗位以换取 2% 的通胀目标是不合理的。芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比表态则偏鹰派，他认为通胀数据令人担忧， 当前降息的门槛高于前两次议息会议。 美国 10 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 为 ...

Market Overview - Major global stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 226.19 points (-0.48%) at 47,336.68, while the Nasdaq rose by 109.76 points (0.46%) to 23,834.72 [1] - The S&P 500 increased by 11.77 points (0.17%) to 6,851.97, and the European Stoxx 50 gained 17.21 points (0.30%) to 5,679.25 [1] - Asian markets also displayed positive trends, with the Nikkei 225 up by 1,085.73 points (2.12%) at 52,411.34 and the Hang Seng Index rising by 251.71 points (0.97%) to 26,158.36 [1] Federal Reserve Policy Statements - Federal Reserve officials expressed differing views on monetary policy, with Milan advocating for a 50 basis point rate cut, citing that current neutral rates are significantly lower than present levels and warning of increased economic risks due to prolonged tightening [2] - Cook indicated that a rate cut could be possible in December, emphasizing that employment risks outweigh inflation concerns as the labor market shows signs of cooling [2] U.S.-China Trade Relations - U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that additional tariffs on China may be considered if China continues to block rare earth exports, while China’s Foreign Ministry emphasized dialogue and cooperation as the solution to trade issues [3] - The U.S. Treasury Department projected a borrowing estimate of $569 billion for Q4, a decrease of $21 billion from previous estimates, primarily due to higher-than-expected cash balances [3] Corporate Developments - Amazon Web Services (AWS) signed a $38 billion computing power agreement with OpenAI, which will utilize NVIDIA GPU resources for a seven-year period [4] - Alphabet plans to raise approximately $15 billion through a dollar bond issuance, with proceeds aimed at general corporate purposes, including debt repayment [4] - Microsoft announced a $15.2 billion investment in the UAE, focusing on expanding data centers and cloud facilities in collaboration with local AI firms [5] - Pfizer filed an antitrust lawsuit against Novo Nordisk to block its $9 billion acquisition, alleging that the deal would stifle competition in the weight loss drug market [6] - Australian company Iren signed a $9.7 billion GPU cloud service contract with Microsoft, becoming its largest customer [7] - Starbucks reached an agreement with Boyu Capital to form a joint venture, with Starbucks retaining 40% equity in its China operations, which are valued at over $13 billion [8]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with significant movements in major tech stocks, particularly Amazon, which reached a historic high following a substantial partnership with OpenAI for cloud computing services valued at $38 billion [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - Multiple Federal Reserve officials expressed varying views on the potential for interest rate cuts, with some indicating a possibility for December while others suggested a higher threshold for such actions [1][4][6]. - Fed Governor Lisa Cook supported recent rate cuts, citing risks to employment and inflation, and emphasized a data-dependent approach for future policy decisions [5][6]. - Stephen Milan called for more aggressive rate cuts, arguing that current monetary policy is too restrictive and suggesting a potential 50 basis point cut if economic data aligns with expectations [5][6]. Group 2: Amazon and OpenAI Partnership - Amazon's stock surged by 4%, reaching a historic high after announcing a 7-year, $38 billion computing power contract with OpenAI, marking a significant collaboration in the cloud computing and AI sectors [2]. - The contract allows OpenAI to utilize Amazon's extensive computing resources, which include advanced NVIDIA chips, enhancing its capabilities in AI development [2]. Group 3: Nvidia and Tesla Market Performance - Nvidia's stock rose by 2.17%, with a target price increase from Loop Capital, projecting a market valuation of $8.5 trillion [3]. - Tesla faced significant sales declines in Europe, with new car registrations dropping by 89% in Sweden and 86% in Denmark, contributing to a 28.5% decrease in sales year-to-date [3].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Signals - Federal Reserve officials, including Stephen Miran and Lisa Cook, indicate a potential for further interest rate cuts, with Miran suggesting a 50 basis point reduction if economic data aligns with expectations [1][2][3] - Cook supports the recent 25 basis point cut and expresses willingness to consider further reductions, emphasizing a data-dependent approach to future policy decisions [5][6] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for October is reported at 48.7, below expectations and indicating continued contraction in factory activity for the eighth consecutive month, with 12 manufacturing sectors showing decline [8][9] - The prices paid index dropped to 58, the lowest level since the implementation of tariffs, suggesting easing inflationary pressures [9] Group 3: Stock Market Reactions - Amazon's stock surged nearly 6% after announcing a $38 billion deal with OpenAI for computing power, marking a significant milestone in its cloud computing strategy [11] - Despite the S&P 500 closing slightly up, over 400 stocks declined during the trading session, indicating a divergence in market performance [12][13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan advocates for significant interest rate cuts, arguing that current monetary policy is overly restrictive and that the neutral interest rate is much lower than the current policy rate [1][2] - Milan has consistently called for a more accommodative monetary policy, opposing the decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in September and October, instead suggesting a larger cut of 50 basis points [1] - Following a slowdown in hiring this summer, the Federal Reserve officials lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive month, bringing the target range to 3.75% to 4% [1] Group 2 - Milan points to signs of stress in the credit market as evidence that monetary policy remains too tight, suggesting that the prolonged restrictive stance could lead to economic downturns [2] - Concerns have been raised by other Federal Reserve policymakers about the risks of persistent inflation if rate cuts are implemented too quickly [1] - Milan's temporary appointment to the Federal Reserve has raised questions about his independence from the Trump administration, although he emphasizes the risks associated with maintaining a restrictive policy for too long [2]

Lisa Cook, governor of the US Federal Reserve, during the Thomas Laubach Research Conference hosted by the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington, DC, US, on Friday, May 19, 2023.Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, in her first policy speech since President Donald Trump tried to remove her from office, said Monday that she supported the recent interest rate reduction and indicated she would be open to more.Since Trump made his move in August to sack Cook on accusations of mortgage fraud, she ha ...

Summary of the Conference Call on Bond Market Investment Strategy Industry Overview - The focus is on the bond market, specifically the investment strategies for November 2025, highlighting a strong but limited downward movement in bond prices with low risk [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Economic Expectations**: Investors have high expectations for a strong economic start in the coming year, supported by positive developments in US-China trade negotiations and potential recovery in PMI data [1][3]. - **Interest Rate Trends**: The ten-year government bond yield needs more favorable conditions to effectively drop below 1.7%. Current conditions show a 7,000 fund level around 1.4, indicating a loose but not extremely low liquidity environment [2][3]. - **Duration Strategy**: It is recommended to maintain a neutral to slightly high duration strategy in November, focusing on opportunities to compress spreads, particularly in 30-year non-active bonds, 50-year government bonds, and 5-10 year active government bonds [5][11]. - **Short-term vs Long-term Bonds**: Short-term certificates of deposit are not cost-effective, while short-term government bonds are less likely to decline due to central bank purchases. If short-term rates continue to decline, a bullet strategy is preferred; if rates fluctuate, a balanced approach between bullet and barbell strategies is suggested [6][10]. - **Central Bank Actions**: The central bank restarted government bond trading to stabilize the balance sheet and as a long-term liquidity tool. This move is crucial given the declining balance of central government debt from January to September [7][8]. - **Government Bond Supply**: Although the net financing scale of government bonds in Q4 is lower than last year, it is still significant, necessitating central bank cooperation. The expected net financing scale for November to December is approximately 1.7 trillion, lower than last year's nearly 3 trillion [9][10]. - **Future Monetary Policy**: There is a high probability of interest rate cuts next year, although the likelihood of cuts within the year is low. The central bank may adopt a more flexible approach to reserve requirement ratio adjustments based on market conditions [10][12]. - **Investment Recommendations**: For 10-year government bonds, the new bond 220 is less attractive compared to the main bond 215 due to its small issuance scale. Recommendations include focusing on high-value long-term bonds such as the 30-year and 50-year government bonds [11][12]. - **Floating Rate Bonds**: Floating rate bonds benefit from declining short-term rates, but many are currently overpriced. Investors are advised to selectively focus on specific floating rate products [13]. - **Bond Futures Strategies**: The December contract IR2 is at a high level, suggesting effective hedging strategies using bond futures. Specific analysis is required for different contracts during the November rollover [14]. Other Important Insights - The overall bond market is expected to remain strong with limited downside risk, indicating a cautious but optimistic outlook for investors [4]. - The central bank's actions are crucial for maintaining liquidity and supporting the bond market amid fluctuating economic conditions [8][10].

相比之下，米兰为降低利率的主张又增添了一个新的论据，他指出近期信贷市场的紧张迹象可能表明货 币政策仍过于紧缩。他说："当一系列看似毫无关联的信贷问题在一段时间内被掩盖，而后突然暴露出 来时，这就会反映出货币政策的取向。" 米兰因决定暂时辞去白宫经济顾问委员会主席一职，转而在美联储担任临时职务而受到了批评。此举引 发了人们对其是否与特朗普政府保持独立性的质疑。 米兰表示："你越是保持政策的紧缩态势，就越有可能因货币政策本身而引发经济衰退。" 智通财经APP获悉，美联储理事米兰表示，货币政策仍具紧缩性，他将继续主张大幅降低利率。米兰周 一表示："美联储的政策过于紧缩，目前的政策水平距离中性水平还有很大差距。与委员会中其他一些 成员相比，我对通胀的预期更为乐观，因此我认为没有必要保持如此严格的政策。" 米兰多次呼吁采取更为宽松的货币政策，他反对政策制定者在 9 月和 10 月将美联储的政策利率下调25 个基点的决定，而是主张降息50个基点。米兰重申中性政策利率远低于当前水平，应该通过一系列50基 点降息实现。 上周，美联储官员连续第二个月降息25个基点。此前整个夏季的美国就业增长大幅放缓，引发了对劳动 力市场的担忧 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran advocates for significant interest rate cuts, arguing that current monetary policy is overly restrictive and that the neutral interest rate is much lower than the current policy rate [2][3] Group 1: Monetary Policy Stance - Miran emphasizes that the Federal Reserve's policy is too tight, suggesting that a series of 50 basis point cuts could reach the neutral rate without needing 75 basis points [2] - He has consistently opposed recent rate cuts, voting against the 25 basis point reductions in September and October, advocating instead for a 50 basis point cut [2] - Following a second consecutive month of a 25 basis point cut, the target range for the benchmark rate is now 3.75% to 4% [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Risks - Miran points to recent pressures in the credit market as indicators of overly tight monetary policy, suggesting that these issues may reflect broader economic risks [3] - He argues that focusing too heavily on stock market performance and corporate credit strength can misrepresent the true stance of monetary policy [3] - The performance of interest-sensitive sectors, such as the housing market, and pressures in private credit markets indicate that current monetary policy may be contributing to economic downturn risks [3] Group 3: Independence Concerns - Miran's temporary appointment to the Federal Reserve, following his role as chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, raises questions about his independence and potential influence from the Trump administration [4]

（文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京11月3日电美联储理事米兰表示，在评估货币政策时，过分强调股市和企业信贷市场的强 势是不妥的。他认为，目前的货币政策仍过于紧缩，并增加了经济下行的风险。米兰在接受采访时表 示："金融市场受很多因素驱动，并不仅仅是货币政策。"他用此解释为何上周在对一季度降息进行投票 时，他反对降息25BP，而倾向于降息50BP。他指出，在利率敏感的行业如住房市场表现不佳、部分私 人信贷市场出现压力的情况下，股价上涨、企业信贷利差收窄等因素"并不一定能告诉你货币政策的立 场如何"。 ...