Group 1 - The US and Japan have reached an agreement on tariff negotiations, reducing the US's "reciprocal tariff" rate on Japan from 25% to 15%, while Japan will increase imports of US rice under the current "minimum access system" [1] - Japan has committed to invest $550 billion in the US, focusing on semiconductor design and manufacturing, natural gas, and new shipbuilding facilities [1] - The EU and the US are moving towards a trade agreement that will set a 15% tariff rate on most products, with EU officials pushing to include sectors like automobiles [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor indicated that the US-Japan trade agreement enhances the likelihood of Japan's economic performance aligning with the central bank's forecasts, although there is still "extremely high" uncertainty in the economy [1] - The US National Association of Realtors reported a 2.7% decline in June's existing home sales, reaching an annualized rate of 3.93 million units, the lowest in nine months [2] - The median price of existing homes increased by 2% year-over-year to $435,300 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The latest news indicates that the US and the EU are close to reaching a 15% tariff agreement, leading to a significant recovery in market risk appetite and a weakening of the US dollar index [2][13]. - The market risk preference remains high, with US stock index futures continuing to rise, and gold and US Treasuries experiencing corrections. However, due to the weak performance of the US real - estate market and uncertainties in US - EU negotiations, there is a need to be cautious about callback risks [18]. - The bond market is unlikely to have a trend - based performance in the near term. Long - position holders are advised to sell on rebounds, and cash bond positions can consider hedging strategies [3]. - For agricultural products, the situation varies. For example, the demand for soybean meal is good, and it is advisable to buy on dips; the palm oil market is affected by supply - side factors in Indonesia; the corn starch industry may face continued losses; and for corn, old - crop prices are expected to remain stable until new - crop harvest [24][26][31][34]. - In the black metal sector, the price of thermal coal is expected to rebound in the short term; iron ore prices are overvalued and show differentiation; and coking coal prices are affected by both macro and fundamental factors, with a need to be cautious after a sharp increase [28][29][36]. - In the non - ferrous metal sector, the price of lithium carbonate is affected by supply - side disturbances; the fundamentals of lead are improving; copper prices are likely to remain high and volatile in the short term; zinc prices are expected to continue the upward trend in the short term; and nickel prices may follow the overall non - ferrous metal trend in the short term but face supply - side pressure in the medium term [38][39][45][48][52]. - In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term; PX prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term; PTA prices may follow the overall domestic commodity trend; and the situations of other products such as caustic soda, pulp, PVC, bottle chips, soda ash, and float glass also have their own characteristics and corresponding investment suggestions [53][55][57]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Russia and Ukraine will hold a new round of negotiations. The Russian delegation led by Vladimir Medinsky went to Turkey to meet the Ukrainian delegation led by Rustem Umerov. The meeting is expected to start in the evening [11]. - Trump said that the US and the EU reached an agreement on military aid to Ukraine, where the EU will pay for all military equipment and distribute it, with most going to Ukraine [12]. - The US and the EU are close to reaching a 15% tariff agreement, which will reduce the possibility of trade conflicts between them, leading to a recovery in market risk appetite and a weakening of the US dollar index. It is recommended that the US dollar index will weaken in the short term [13][14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - US existing - home sales dropped to a nine - month low in June, with the annualized total of existing - home sales decreasing by 2.7% month - on - month to 393,000 units, lower than the expected 400,000 units, and the supply of existing - home sales can last for 4.7 months, the highest since July 2016 [15]. - Google's second - quarter earnings exceeded expectations, and it increased its annual capital expenditure to $85 billion from the previously expected $75 billion [16]. - The US and the EU are close to reaching a trade agreement, and the negotiation is positive. The market risk preference remains high, but due to the weak real - estate market and uncertainties in the negotiation, there is a need to be cautious about callback risks [18][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 150.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on July 23, with a net withdrawal of 369.6 billion yuan due to the maturity of 520.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases. The bond market is unlikely to have a trend - based performance in the near term. Long - position holders are advised to sell on rebounds, and cash bond positions can consider hedging strategies. Short - term trading long - position holders can close their positions after the Politburo meeting [20][21]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA will release the weekly export sales report on Thursday. Analysts expect the net increase in US soybean export sales for the week ending July 17 to be between 350,000 and 850,000 tons. - Argentina crushed 4.055 million tons of soybeans in June, producing 788,000 tons of soybean oil and 3.021 million tons of soybean meal. The demand for soybean meal is good, and it is advisable to buy on dips and not chase high prices [22][23][24]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - MPOA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20 increased by 11.24% month - on - month. GAPKI data shows that Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased to 2.96 million tons in May. The palm oil market is affected by supply - side factors in Indonesia, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the transfer of plantation operating rights on the production - increasing season [25][26]. 2.3 Black Metal (Thermal Coal) - Zheng Shanjie emphasized promoting the improvement of involution - style competition and expanding industrial chain and supply - chain cooperation. The port spot coal price is rising moderately, and it is expected to continue the rebound trend in the short term due to the high market sentiment and rigid demand [27][28]. 2.4 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Vale's second - quarter production and sales report shows stable performance. The price of iron ore is overvalued, and it is recommended to wait and see due to the possible compression of price space by the increase in coal prices and weak terminal demand [29]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of corn starch enterprises has decreased, and inventory has been reduced. However, the industry may face continued losses, and the operating rate is expected to remain low and volatile [30][31]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in the northern port decreased, while that in the southern port increased. The price of old - crop corn is expected to remain stable until new - crop harvest, and early - entered short positions of new - crop corn can be held, with attention to rebound - adding opportunities [33][34]. 2.7 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Linfen market is stable with a slight upward trend. The supply of coking coal is recovering slower than expected, and demand is strong. After a sharp increase, it is necessary to be cautious about risks [35][36]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metal (Lithium Carbonate) - Zimbabwe's lithium spodumene exports increased by 30% in the first half of 2025. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading fee standard for lithium carbonate futures contracts. The price of lithium carbonate is affected by supply - side disturbances, and it is recommended to reduce positions or wait and see [37][38]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metal (Lead) - On July 22, the [LME0 - 3 Lead] was at a discount of $25.4 per ton. The fundamentals of lead are improving, and it is recommended to consider buying on dips in the short term [39]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metal (Copper) - Glencore plans to suspend copper smelting in northern Queensland; Askari found high - grade copper mineralization in Ethiopia; MMG's copper production in the second quarter increased by 54% year - on - year; the global copper market had a surplus of 97,000 tons in May. Copper prices are likely to remain high and volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [40][41][42][43][44][45]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metal (Zinc) - On July 22, the [LME0 - 3 Zinc] was at a discount of $4.23 per ton. MMG's zinc mine production in the second quarter increased by 12% year - on - year. Zinc prices are expected to continue the upward trend in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see for the overall situation and consider near - month spread arbitrage [46][47][48][49]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metal (Nickel) - Vale's nickel production in the second quarter reached a new high since 2021. The price of nickel may follow the overall non - ferrous metal trend in the short term but face supply - side pressure in the medium term [50][52]. 2.13 Energy and Chemical (Crude Oil) - EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased. Crude oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, waiting for new driving factors [53][54]. 2.14 Energy and Chemical (PX) - On July 23, the PX price was slightly weaker. The cost support is insufficient, but the bottom is supported. The PX price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [55][56]. 2.15 Energy and Chemical (PTA) - The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased significantly in the afternoon of the previous day. PTA prices may follow the overall domestic commodity trend in the short term [57][58]. 2.16 Energy and Chemical (Caustic Soda) - On July 23, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong fluctuated. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is stable. The upward space of caustic soda prices is limited after the basis of the 09 contract is completed [59][60]. 2.17 Energy and Chemical (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market is rising, but high - price transactions are difficult. The pulp price is rising due to policy and coal price factors, but the upward space is limited due to the unchanged supply - demand situation [61][62]. 2.18 Energy and Chemical (PVC) - The price of PVC powder in the domestic market is consolidating. The PVC price is rising with the overall commodity market, but the inventory is increasing, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices [63]. 2.19 Energy and Chemical (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories are mostly stable with partial slight increases. The industry is implementing production cuts, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding processing fees by buying on dips [64][65][66]. 2.20 Energy and Chemical (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash from Jiangsu Jingshen Chemical is stable. The soda ash futures price decreased slightly, and the market sentiment is weakening. It is recommended to operate cautiously and wait for policy guidance [67]. 2.21 Energy and Chemical (Float Glass) - The price of 5mm float glass in Hubei increased by 1.5 on July 23. The glass futures price increase narrowed. It is recommended to operate cautiously on a single - side basis and focus on arbitrage strategies such as buying glass and shorting soda ash [68].

金十数据7月24日讯，中信证券研报称，美日双方达成主要内容是"以增加投资换降低关税"的贸易协 议，这应能明显减小日本车企业绩受冲击的幅度，对日本的意义主要在于避免信函威胁成真、提高外贸 前景能见度。美日协议是日股上涨的催化剂，在经济前景逐渐明朗的基准情形下，我们预计日银今秋或 会再加息25bps，并一如既往地对日债持谨慎观点。 中信证券：美日协议为市场降低不确定性 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the positive market sentiment driven by trade agreements between the US and Japan, as well as progress in negotiations between the US and the EU, leading to record highs in major stock indices [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones increased by 507.85 points, or 1.14%, closing at 45010.29 points; the Nasdaq rose by 127.33 points, or 0.61%, to 21020.02 points; and the S&P 500 gained 49.29 points, or 0.78%, finishing at 6358.91 points [2]. Sector Performance - In the S&P 500, the energy sector rose by 1.54%, the consumer discretionary sector increased by 0.41%, and the real estate sector gained 0.19%. Conversely, the utilities sector declined by 0.79% [3]. Stock Performance - Major tech stocks mostly saw gains, with Nvidia up by 2.25%, Meta by 1.24%, and Amazon, Tesla, and Microsoft rising up to 0.36%. Apple fell by 0.12%, and Alphabet (Google A) dropped by 0.58% [4]. - GE Vernova's stock surged by 14.6% after raising revenue and free cash flow expectations, with a year-to-date increase of 91% due to rising power demand from AI and cryptocurrency data centers [4]. - Texas Instruments experienced a significant drop of 13% after its quarterly profit forecast indicated lower-than-expected demand for its analog chips, highlighting uncertainties related to tariffs [4]. - Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up by 0.75%. Notable gains included Xiaoma Zhixing at 7.7%, WeRide at 5.2%, Tencent at 4%, and Pinduoduo at 3% [4].

美国总统特朗普兜售5500亿美元日本贸易协议，宣称："签署奖金"。 ...

白宫新闻秘书莱维特：还有更多贸易协议。 ...

欧盟外交官：在美国没有达成贸易协议、美国对欧盟征收30%关税的情况下，绝大多数欧盟成员国将支 持使用反胁迫手段。 ...

欧盟外交官：欧盟和美国正朝着可能的贸易协议迈进，美国对欧盟商品的基准关税为15%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights positive developments in trade agreements between the U.S. and Japan, as well as potential agreements with the EU, which have led to a significant rise in U.S. stock markets [4][5]. Trade Agreements - The U.S. and Japan have reached a trade agreement that includes a 15% "reciprocal" tariff on goods exported to the U.S. from Japan [4][8]. - The U.S. is reportedly close to finalizing a trade agreement with the EU, which may involve a 15% tariff on European imports, preventing a potential increase to 30% [4]. - The EU is preparing a retaliatory tariff plan that could reach up to €93 billion, with a maximum rate of 30%, if an agreement is not reached by August 1 [4]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the trade agreements, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged by 400 points, reflecting strong market optimism [5]. - Analysts suggest that the clarity in trade policies is beneficial for market stability and could lead to continued stock market gains [9]. Federal Reserve Expectations - There is increasing speculation regarding a change in leadership at the Federal Reserve, which may lead to a more accommodative monetary policy [11][12]. - Market participants are betting on a significant interest rate cut in 2026, with expectations rising from a 25 basis point cut in April to a 76 basis point cut now [11]. - The potential for a new Fed chair who favors rate cuts is influencing investment strategies on Wall Street [12].

Core Viewpoint - Despite the recent trade agreement, the US dollar is expected to remain under pressure due to ongoing uncertainties and tariff impacts [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Trade Agreement Impact** The recent trade agreement has reduced uncertainties that have been weighing on the dollar, yet there is little room for a rebound in the currency [1] - **Tariff Effects** The imposition of broad tariffs is projected to exert pressure on the relative economic outlook of the US, which will continue to weaken the strength of the dollar [1] - **Investment Commitments** While the agreement with Japan has improved sentiment on Wall Street, the actual realization of Japan's commitment to invest $550 billion in the US remains uncertain [1] - **Cost Distribution Concerns** There are questions regarding how the costs of tariffs will be distributed among exporters, importers, and consumers [1]