Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in international spot gold prices, maintaining above $3,700 per ounce, has led to strong performance in gold-linked financial products, with annualized returns ranging from 2.00% to 4.00% [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Behind Gold Price Increase - The current rise in gold prices is supported by several factors: a favorable macro monetary environment with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, increased gold reserves by emerging market central banks, and heightened geopolitical risks that enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][5]. - This gold price rally not only continues the traditional safe-haven narrative but also benefits from a global trend of "de-dollarization," which adds strategic value to gold [2][5]. Group 2: Early Profit-Taking in Gold-Linked Products - The frequent early profit-taking in gold-linked financial products reflects both the risk control mechanisms in product design and institutions' cautious outlook on future price volatility [3][5]. - This phenomenon is expected to be more common in the short term, especially in a high-volatility environment, as institutions aim to protect investor interests and stabilize product returns [3][5]. Group 3: Trends in New Gold-Linked Financial Products - Recent trends in gold-linked financial products include innovative designs that go beyond traditional price-linked models, incorporating features like range returns and automatic profit-taking to enhance flexibility and risk mitigation [4][5]. - The asset allocation for these products has expanded to include not only direct gold links but also gold ETFs and actively managed funds focused on gold themes, resulting in improved performance and increased market attention [4][5]. Group 4: Challenges Faced by Financial Institutions - Financial institutions face significant challenges, including the unpredictable nature of gold prices influenced by global political and economic factors, which complicates risk management [6]. - Additionally, institutions must balance innovation in product offerings with compliance to regulatory requirements, making it difficult to attract investors while adhering to dynamic regulatory policies [6]. Group 5: Long-Term Outlook for Gold-Linked Financial Products - Following a recent 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, gold prices reached a historical high but have since retreated slightly due to market expectations and geopolitical tensions [7]. - Despite the current peak, long-term support for gold prices is anticipated due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts and central bank demand, suggesting that gold-linked fixed-income products may still hold investment value [7].

Group 1 - Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia experienced a fatal landslide, leading to a long-term disruption in global copper supply [1][3] - The incident resulted in the death of two workers, with five still missing, and production is expected to not return to pre-accident levels until 2027, with a projected 35% decrease in copper and gold output for 2026 [3] - The Grasberg mine accounts for 50% of Freeport's proven reserves and approximately 70% of its expected production before 2029, indicating a significant impact on the global copper supply chain [3] Group 2 - The copper market has been facing frequent disruptions this year, with aging production facilities and declining resource endowments being major obstacles [3] - The supply-demand balance for copper is expected to remain tight, with actual production often falling short of optimistic forecasts due to various disturbances [3] - The onset of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle is anticipated to benefit metal prices, including copper, silver, gold, and other strategic metals [4] Group 3 - The mining ETF (561330) has seen a net inflow for ten consecutive days, reflecting growing interest in the mining and metals sector amid the current market conditions [1][6] - The mining ETF tracks the China Securities Index for non-ferrous metal mining companies, highlighting the value of domestic mineral resources in the context of global competition [6] - Investors are encouraged to consider various ETFs focused on non-ferrous metals, including those linked to the China Securities Index for broader exposure [6]

转自：新华财经 西南期货："逆全球化"和"去美元化"大趋势利好黄金的配置价值和避险价值 混沌天成期货：美元指数和美债利率同步回升抑制贵金属 申银万国期货：黄金方面长期驱动仍然明确 道明证券（TD Securities)：4000美元的金价是一个真是的可能性 法国外贸银行：珠宝需求走弱将令金价的涨势放缓 西南期货表示，当前全球贸易金融环境错综复杂，"逆全球化"和"去美元化"大趋势，利好黄金的配置价 值和避险价值。各国央行的购金行为对黄金走势也形成了支撑。美国劳动力市场进一步放缓，美联储有 望持续降息，为黄金提供新的上涨驱动力。因此，贵金属的长期牛市趋势有望延续，前期多单可继续持 有。 混沌天成期货表示，贵金属较高位短线级别大幅回落，主要受到美元指数反弹以及上方获利盘共同影 响。更重要的是，美股的走势出现趋弱现象，主要源于科技AI行业的短线调整，这一定程度形成负反 馈从而加深市场压力。这是对流动性的考验，贵金属上涨趋势短线整理。不过，地缘形势波动有抬升的 迹象，重大政治事件使得全球政治敏感性显著上升，这对黄金而言存在潜在利好，并加强长期逻辑。 申银万国期货表示，金银涨势暂缓，出现一定调整。本周接连有几位联储官员讲 ...

近期，国际黄金价格屡创新高。当地时间9月23日，COMEX黄金期货涨0.58%报3796.9美元/盎司，盘中一度涨至3824.60美元/盎司创盘中历史新高。随着 国际黄金价格走高，国内金饰价格也随之攀升。9月23日，周生生足金首饰价格达到1100元/克，比前一日上涨10元/克；周大福和老凤祥足金首饰升至 1098元/克。 自年初以来，国际现货黄金价格从2625美元/盎司起步，持续攀升，年内国际黄金价格涨幅已接近43%，国内黄金价格上涨约38%。 "黄金价格上涨是美联储政策转向、全球央行购金潮以及地缘政治风险等多重因素共同作用的结果。"中国人民大学重阳金融研究院研究员刘英在接受《中 国报道》记者采访时说。 美联储降息是最直接的催化剂 北京时间9月18凌晨，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%。这是美联储2025年第一次降息，也是继2024年三次降息后再次 降息。 "美联储货币政策转向是本轮黄金价格上涨的直接催化剂。"刘英指出，美联储本次降息25个基点，随后大概率还会再降息2次，这种宽松货币政策对黄金 价格上涨形成直接支撑。 美联储如期降息后，市场关注点转向年内后续降息路径。联邦 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Rebounding [2] - Soda ash: Adjusting [2] - CSI 500: Rebounding [3] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [3] - 10-year Treasury bonds: Rebounding [3] - Gold: Bullish [3] - Silver: Bullish [3] - Logs: Range-bound [4] - Pulp: Consolidating at the bottom [4] - Offset paper: Bearish [4] - Edible oils: Oscillating with a bearish bias [4] - Meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [4] - Live pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [6] - Rubber: Oscillating [9] - PX: Hold for observation [9] - PTA: Oscillating [9] - MEG: Hold for observation [9] - PR: Hold for observation [9] - PF: Bullish [9] Core Viewpoints - The trading focus after the National Day will gradually shift to the reality. The fundamentals of various commodities have different characteristics, and their prices will show different trends under the influence of supply, demand, cost, and other factors [2]. - In the financial market, the stock index and bond market are affected by policies and economic data, showing a volatile trend. The price of precious metals is driven by factors such as central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Overseas supply has declined slightly, but the arrival volume at 47 ports has increased. The demand has rebounded, and the steel mills' profit ratio has declined. The short-term fundamentals have limited contradictions, and the contract is undergoing a high-level adjustment [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: The coal mine shutdown news and the "anti-involution" expectation have promoted the rebound of the double-coke futures. The supply of coking coal is expected to be weaker than last year, and the demand has rebounded. The double-coke shows an oscillating and bullish trend [2]. - **Rebar and hot-rolled coils**: The production of finished products has declined slightly, the supply remains relatively high, the apparent demand has increased slightly, and the inventory pressure has continued to increase. The total demand is difficult to show a counter-seasonal performance, and the price is oscillating [2]. - **Glass**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has called on the industry to raise prices, and the short-term price increase may drive downstream restocking. The supply is stable, the demand has improved slightly, and the price is oscillating and bullish before the festival [2]. - **Soda ash**: The price is adjusting, and the long-term real estate industry is still in an adjustment cycle [2]. Financial Sector - **Stock index futures/options**: The market is oscillating. The State Council Premier's speech and the Ministry of Commerce's statement have an impact on the market. It is recommended to control risk preferences and maintain the current position of long stock index [3]. - **Treasury bonds**: The market interest rate is fluctuating, and the bond trend is weak. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [3]. - **Precious metals**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and factors such as central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies drive the price. The price of gold and silver is expected to remain bullish [3]. Light Industry - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume has decreased, the supply is tight, the cost support has weakened, and the price is expected to range-bound [4]. - **Pulp**: The spot price is stable, the cost support has increased, the demand improvement expectation remains to be verified, and the price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [4]. - **Offset paper**: The production is relatively stable, the demand is in the off-season, the supply-demand contradiction is prominent, and the price is bearish [4]. Oil and Fat Sector - **Edible oils**: The production of Malaysian palm oil has increased, the inventory has increased, the export is weak, the demand for soybean oil is uncertain, and the supply of domestic oils is abundant. The price is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [4]. - **Meal**: The yield of US soybeans has increased, the export demand is weak, the domestic supply pressure is significant, and the price is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [4]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight has increased, the supply is abundant, the demand is weak, the price is oscillating and bullish in the short term, and the slaughter rate is expected to decline and then stabilize [6]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply pressure has decreased, the demand has improved, the inventory has declined, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [9]. - **PX**: There are potential supply risks, the supply-demand margin has improved slightly, and the price follows the oil price [9]. - **PTA**: The cost provides support, the supply and demand have both increased, and the price follows the cost [9]. - **MEG**: The port inventory has increased slightly, the supply pressure has increased, and the price is affected by the cost [9]. - **PR**: The cost has increased, the supply has decreased, and the market trading atmosphere may be limited [9]. - **PF**: The factory inventory is not high, the international oil price has risen, and the market is expected to be bullish [9].

历史，总是在万众瞩目中被改写。 当地时间9月23日，国际金价如同脱缰的野马，COMEX黄金期货价格一度冲高至3824.60美元/盎司，正 式宣告突破3800美元大关，再度刷新历史纪录。 美联储主席鲍威尔在随后的讲话中，将此次降息定义为一次"风险管理"。他明确指出，促使美联储采取 行动的关键原因，是"就业市场面临的下行风险有所升高"。尽管通胀依然高于2%的目标，但劳动力市 场的疲软迹象，让美联储的天平开始向支持就业倾斜。 降息为何对黄金是重大利好？因为黄金作为不生息资产，其最大的"敌人"就是高利率。当美联储降息， 尤其是进入降息周期时，持有黄金的机会成本（即放弃持有生息资产如国债的收益）显著降低。此外， 降息通常会导致美元走软，而以美元计价的黄金对于持有其他货币的投资者来说会变得更便宜，从而刺 激需求。 更重要的是，市场对未来还有更多期待。根据美联储公布的"点阵图"，略多于半数的官员预计今年至少 还会有两次降息，意味着10月和12月可能连续动作。这种对持续宽松货币政策的强烈预期，为金价提供 了源源不断的上行动力。 三、深层逻辑：从"央行购金"到"投资者狂欢" 如果说降息是点燃黄金行情的火花，那么更深层次的燃料， ...

2025年09月25日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | | 招商评论 | | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：贵金属价格高位震荡，以伦敦金计价的国际金价收于 3736 美元/盎司，跌 0.74%。 | | 金 | 基本面：李强会见欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩，希望欧方履行保持贸易和投资市场开放的承诺，坚持公平竞争 | | 属 | 和世贸组织规则；商务部部长王文涛在美国纽约召开部分在美中资企业圆桌会；美国正式公告实施美欧贸易 | | | 协议，8 月 1 日起征收欧盟汽车关税降至 15%；贝森特认为美联储年底前应至少降息 100 至 150 个基点，同 | | | 时表示美财政部准备买阿根廷美元债，正讨论 200 亿美元货币互换额度。美国 8 月新屋销售年化 80 万户，大 | | | 幅高于预期的 65 万户，前值为 65.2 万户；8 月新屋销售环比大涨 20.5%，预期为环比下跌 0.3%，前值为环 | | | 比跌 0.6%。国内黄金 ETF 资金出现流出，COMEX 黄金库存 1238 吨，增加 2 吨；上期所黄金库存 60.5 吨， | | | 增加近 1 吨；伦敦 8 月黄 ...

为什么金价这么疯？ 美联储9月份刚刚降息，这是2025年第一次。 利率一下调，黄金的持有成本就低了，大家更愿意把钱放在黄金这种避险资产里。 全球局势也不太平。 地缘政治紧张加上经济波动，投资者都在找安全港。 黄金自古以来就是避风港，现在更是抢手货。 黄金又涨疯了！ 就在今天早上，国际金价冲到了3766美元一盎司，这已经是2025年第30多次破纪录了。 但奇怪的是，国内金价涨得更猛，每克854块，比国 际涨幅还高。 这背后到底藏着什么秘密？ 今天一早打开手机，金价新闻又刷屏了。 2025年9月24日7点05分，国际金价报3766.85美元一盎司，比昨天涨了将近3美元。 别看涨幅只有0.08%，这可是在 金价已经高位运行的基础上又爬了一小步。 国内市场更热闹。 上海黄金交易所的数据显示，国内金价冲到854.50元一克，一天就涨了4.92元，涨幅0.58%。 盘中最高摸到856.40元，这数字看着就让人 心跳加速。 白银也不甘落后。 国际银价44.11美元一盎司，涨了0.23%。 国内银价10326元一公斤，折合每克10.33元，单日涨幅0.50%。 不过铂金就惨了，跌了0.94%， 报1513.19美元。 如果你 ...

据报道，近年来的中美博弈已不仅仅体现在贸易战、科技封锁和军事对抗等领域，金融和资本市场的较 量同样成为了全球关注的焦点。中国连续大规模减持美国国债，特别是从3月到7月间，共计抛售约537 亿美元（约合3820亿元人民币），这一举动引发了广泛的讨论。而与此同时，股神巴菲特所控制的伯克 希尔·哈撒韦公司，也宣布完全清空了其对比亚迪的股票。 自2022年起，中国对美债的持有量逐步减少，今年的四次大规模减持，将中国的美债持仓降至7307亿美 元，创下近几年的最低水平。实际上，中国减持美债并非一朝一夕的决定，而是长期战略的体现。从过 去几十年的情况来看，中国曾一度是美国国债的最大持有国，目的很简单——通过持有大量美债来稳定 其外汇储备，保证人民币的汇率稳定。美元作为全球储备货币，长期以来被视为安全资产，投资美国国 债是很多国家的惯常选择。 然而，随着中美关系的恶化，特别是在特朗普政府时期，美国加征关税、实施制裁以及美元的大规模贬 值，已经让中国意识到持有过多美债的潜在风险。更为致命的是，2022年美国冻结了俄罗斯的海外主权 资产，这一做法无疑让所有依赖美元资产的国家产生了深刻的警觉。中国一方面面临着日益高涨的关税 壁垒 ...

2025年9月22日早上，市场屏幕像被按下快进键，金价脉搏突然加速，现货金一口气冲到3715美元每盎 司，短线涨幅扩大到10美元，画面里有人欢呼也有人捏汗。 同一天，上海金主力合约当日涨幅超过2%，报846.64元每克，刷新记录；沪深股市的黄金股像被点燃 一般，晓程科技涨超10%，湖南白银曾一度封板，西部黄金冲击涨停，山东黄金、中金黄金位列前列， 这些数字不是空话，是交易席位里的喊价声和下单回执上的绿色。 现场有人问路边柜台的金饰师傅，首饰价格是不是也跟着疯了，他说，九点半电话还在响，六福的足金 首饰已经报到1085元每克，门店里有人排队，有顾客试图砍价——店员写下单据的笔迹有点急促，墨迹 没干，却挡不住手背上的汗渍。 市场的表层原因写在几份研报里，粤开证券指出，美联储重启降息周期会利好黄金，利率降落意味着无 息资产的机会成本下降，美元承压有利金价上行，美元指数自年初下滑近10%，美国经济数据走弱的迹 象让降息概率更被市场参照——这份观点被新闻媒体一遍遍引用，形成一个共识性的"剧本"。 换个角度看现场，有更杂乱的声音，交易员的即时聊天记录里写着"避险 做多流动性博弈"，有私募基 金经理在访谈中直言，地缘政治紧 ...